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Author Topic: Bill Gates: People Don't Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software  (Read 34333 times)

mu03eng

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I'd say the amount should be just over the poverty level.


The poverty level is a relative calculation related to the annual national income so this would move and may or may not account for pricing changes in critical goods.  It will go up and down every year.
 
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Everyone gets the income. Whether they are making cash on the side or not. Whether they have a W-2 for $200,000 a year or not. Everyone still gets that chunk of change from the government. There is no means testing, which cuts on the bureaucracy. Everyone is mooching off the government equally. You, me, Chicos, Buzz Williams, Derek Wilson, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, and the guy currently living under the overpass all get the exact same check each month.

If people want to spend their minimum on iPhones and TVs, that's their prerogative. But there is nothing else coming from the government. No food stamps, no medical subsidies, no housing subsidies, etc. Its their choice to make what they spend their money on.

I'd say the amount should be just over the poverty level.

It replaces social security. It replaces medicaid. It replaces EVERYTHING. No more massive bureaucracies. No more fraud. No more gaming the system. You just get a check for food, clothes and shelter. If you want more than that, you get a job.

So when someone spends their money and can't afford food, we are just going to turn away from them?  Is that really going to happen? 

Does that also mean that as an employer I can pay you 5 cents an hour for a job?

Where does the money come from for this living wage?  I see a huge savings in bureaucracy and actually a lot of government workers out of a job (not a terrible thing having a smaller government) but I'd love to see a comparison of what the cost of such a program would be.  Interesting concept
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

jesmu84

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Interesting concept....what establishes the minimum?  How is that determined?  As an example we have people living below the poverty line with iPhones and big screen tvs.  How do we determine what the minimum income is?

How would you determine income sources?  What prevents me from being on the minimum income but doing cash jobs on the side for extra income?

I have to admit, at first blush I have a real issue with any concept that gives people the option to do nothing.  Not saying that's a good hang up but it would drive me nuts having people literally doing nothing to contribute to society.

this is going to be necessary at some point in the future anyway when technology takes up enough jobs that leaves us without options for employment. people are going to have to be supported somehow

mu03eng

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I already posted the effect on Walmart in an earlier post.  Is one penny more per $16 item going to hurt any shoppers?  I don't think anyone would even notice?  But to employees making less than $10.10 th eraise would make a world of difference.


A boost in the minimum wage to $10.10 would add $200 million -- or less than 1 percent -- to Wal-Mart’s annual labor bill, the University of California Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education estimates.

If Wal-Mart passed along the estimated $200 million in extra labor cost to consumers, it would equal about a penny per $16 item, said Ken Jacobs, the Labor Center’s chairman. Meanwhile, the rise may boost purchases among the chain’s core shoppers, many of whom could see their earnings climb, he said.


Yep you are correct, which is fine if it's only Walmart impacted.  It's any fast food joint, any grocery store, any place a minimum wage job occurs.  Those total add up.  I'd love to see someone do a year in the life estimate of your average American spending pattern and how it would be impacted by minimum wage increase.  Would be very telling one way or the other.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Coleman

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So when someone spends their money and can't afford food, we are just going to turn away from them?  Is that really going to happen?  

Does that also mean that as an employer I can pay you 5 cents an hour for a job?

Where does the money come from for this living wage?  I see a huge savings in bureaucracy and actually a lot of government workers out of a job (not a terrible thing having a smaller government) but I'd love to see a comparison of what the cost of such a program would be.  Interesting concept

Yes. No minimum wage if everyone is already getting enough to live on.

Money comes from existing funds in social welfare programs, and savings from getting rid of the bureaucracy payroll.

And yes, if people can't afford food, they have to make due until their next check. Everyone is in the same boat.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2014, 01:39:14 PM by Bleuteaux »

ChicosBailBonds

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this is going to be necessary at some point in the future anyway when technology takes up enough jobs that leaves us without options for employment. people are going to have to be supported somehow

Happening in droves today.....and you can imagine those that are doing the paying aren't too pleased by it.  As those jobs go away, then you continue to shrink the doers and payers. Eventually they're going to look up from their desk and why are they busting their arse for everyone else doing nothing.


ChicosBailBonds

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So if jobs are going to continue to be removed and replaced by technology, can someone explain to me why we have a gov't that refused to enforce our borders and allows the population to swell even more?  A population that will also have to be fed, sheltered, clothed, etc?


Why would this be?   ::)

jesmu84

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So if jobs are going to continue to be removed and replaced by technology, can someone explain to me why we have a gov't that refused to enforce our borders and allows the population to swell even more?  A population that will also have to be fed, sheltered, clothed, etc?


Why would this be?   ::)

yes. votes. but take all the politics and class-bashing out of the discussion. we're going to have to make a decision. post-scarce economy is what i'm talking about. going to be a hell of a transition though. lots of the "haves" are going to be dragged kicking and screaming.

WellsstreetWanderer

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When we are all in the same boat I can take my government debit card to strip clubs and casinos  too

ChicosBailBonds

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yes. votes. but take all the politics and class-bashing out of the discussion. we're going to have to make a decision. post-scarce economy is what i'm talking about. going to be a hell of a transition though. lots of the "haves" are going to be dragged kicking and screaming.

Of course, because most of those haves worked their ass off to get there.  The problem is that many of the have nots are pissed off about and think the haves got there some other way.  The idea that the haves went to college, put themselves through grad schools, started a business or two, worked 80 hours a week, etc, etc is lost on some of these folks.  Don't get me wrong, there are have nots that just got royally screwed in life and there are haves that did nothing to get there, but were part of the lucky sperm club.  I'm not talking about those.

There was also a societal promise to people that if they worked hard in this country they would enjoy the fruits of their labor.  You start to penalize even more those that are working and providing jobs, opportunities, etc for everyone, the outcome is not going to be pretty.

LAZER

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So if jobs are going to continue to be removed and replaced by technology, can someone explain to me why we have a gov't that refused to enforce our borders and allows the population to swell even more?  A population that will also have to be fed, sheltered, clothed, etc?


Why would this be?   ::)

Didn't McCain and W propose the original amnesty program?

ChicosBailBonds

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Didn't McCain and W propose the original amnesty program?

McLame ...I have no doubt he wanted a new one.

I'm old enough to remember 1986 when Reagan did and the promise was THIS IS THE ONE AND ONLY TIME WE WILL EVER DO THIS.

What a load of crap.  It was billed as a ONE TIME AMNESTY.  Borders were now going to be enforced, employers penalized, blah blah blah.  An absolute pile of dung piled high and deep.

You wonder why so many people aren't thrilled with gov't, it is because of so many BS promises that have been absolutely broken to get legislation, programs, etc passed.  People aren't stupid, they are cynical for a reason...except those that are kool aid drinkers.


jesmu84

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Of course, because most of those haves worked their ass off to get there.  The problem is that many of the have nots are pissed off about and think the haves got there some other way.  The idea that the haves went to college, put themselves through grad schools, started a business or two, worked 80 hours a week, etc, etc is lost on some of these folks.  Don't get me wrong, there are have nots that just got royally screwed in life and there are haves that did nothing to get there, but were part of the lucky sperm club.  I'm not talking about those.

There was also a societal promise to people that if they worked hard in this country they would enjoy the fruits of their labor.  You start to penalize even more those that are working and providing jobs, opportunities, etc for everyone, the outcome is not going to be pretty.

I was hoping you would focus more on the potential post-scarce economy I had spoken of, but that's ok.

When you talk about people working hard, and enjoying the fruits of their labor, I find that funny. How many people lost their savings and retirement thanks to the recession/housing crash? So much for the fruits of their labor. Similarly to all the pension funds that were raided and then the people who had paid their whole lives were told the states are bankrupt. Problems for everyone: haves, have-nots, lifelong hard workers, etc.

So, what do you think about a post-scarce economy? Would our society and cultural hierarchy be able to handle that situation?

MU Fan in Connecticut

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So if jobs are going to continue to be removed and replaced by technology, can someone explain to me why we have a gov't that refused to enforce our borders and allows the population to swell even more?  A population that will also have to be fed, sheltered, clothed, etc?


Why would this be?   ::)

The border the border the border.......  As long as there's a wage difference between anywhere and the USA and the better quality of life in the USA people will ALWAYS find a way to get here legally or illegally with the desire to work, and not for handouts.  I know of plenty of people who found a way to get here with the plan to stay here and work.  And none of them speak Spanish.  We can strengthen the border, that's fine, but the people I know would have gotten here regardless. 

Tugg Speedman

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Low-Wage Workers Are Finding Poverty Harder to Escape

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/business/economy/low-wage-workers-finding-its-easier-to-fall-into-poverty-and-harder-to-get-out.html?_r=2

At 7 in the morning, they are already lined up — poultry plant workers, housekeepers, discount store clerks — to ask for help paying their heating bills or feeding their families.

And once Metropolitan Ministries opens at 8 a.m., these workers fill the charity’s 40 chairs, with a bawling infant adding to the commotion. From pockets and handbags they pull out utility bills or rent statements and hand them over to caseworkers, who often write checks — $80, $110, $150 — to patch over gaps in meeting this month’s expenses or filling the gas tank to get to work.

Just off her 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. shift, Erika McCurdy needed help last month with her electricity and heating bill, which jumped to $280 in January from the usual $120 — a result of one of the coldest winters in memory. A nurse’s aide at an assisted living facility, Ms. McCurdy said there were many weeks when she couldn’t make ends meet raising her 19-year-old son and 7-year-old daughter.

“There’s just no way, making $9 an hour as a single parent with two children, that I can live without assistance,” said Ms. McCurdy, 40, a strong-voiced, solidly built Chattanooga native.

She was so financially stretched, she said, that she and her daughter often sneaked into her son’s high school football games free during halftime because she couldn’t afford the $6 tickets. (She proudly noted that her son, Charles, had made the All State football team.) As for her daughter Jer’Maya, who mimics Beyoncé’s every move on her mother’s iPhone, Ms. McCurdy said, “She’d love to take ballet and piano lessons, but there’s no way I can afford that.”

Having worked as a nurse’s aide for 15 years, Ms. McCurdy has been among the nearly 25 million workers in the United States who make less than $10.10 an hour — the amount to which President Obama supports increasing the minimum wage. Of those workers, 3.5 million make the $7.25 federal minimum wage or less.

And like many of them, Ms. McCurdy hasn’t been able to rely on steady full-time hours — she has often been assigned just 20 hours a week. Even if she worked full time year-round, her $9 hourly wage would put her below the poverty threshold of $19,530 for a family of three.

Climbing above the poverty line has become more daunting in recent years, as the composition of the nation’s low-wage work force has been transformed by the Great Recession, shifting demographics and other factors. More than half of those who make $9 or less an hour are 25 or older, while the proportion who are teenagers has declined to just 17 percent from 28 percent in 2000, after adjusting for inflation, according to Janelle Jones and John Schmitt of the Center for Economic Policy Research.

Today’s low-wage workers are also more educated, with 41 percent having at least some college, up from 29 percent in 2000. “Minimum-wage and low-wage workers are older and more educated than 10 or 20 years ago, yet they’re making wages below where they were 10 or 20 years ago after inflation,” said Mr. Schmitt, senior economist at the research center. “If you look back several decades, workers near the minimum wage were more likely to be teenagers — that’s the stereotype people had. It’s definitely not accurate anymore.”
Continue reading the main story

In Chattanooga, the prevalence of low-wage jobs has contributed to the high poverty rate: 27 percent of the city’s residents live below the poverty line, compared with 15 percent nationwide. Women head about two-thirds of the city’s poor households, and 42 percent of its children are poor, nearly double the rate statewide.

“The face of poverty in this community is women, especially women of color,” said Valerie L. Radu, a professor of social work at the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga.

This city was not always a magnet for low-wage jobs. For much of the last century, the city, which hugs the Tennessee River, was a manufacturing hub with dozens of apparel factories, textile mills and metal foundries.

During the last quarter of the 20th century, almost all the factories and foundries were shuttered, and with them disappeared thousands of manufacturing jobs that had once lifted workers, even ones without high school degrees, into the middle class or to the cusp of it. In their place have come thousands of service-sector jobs: at the aquarium and Imax theater built to lure tourists and at hotels, nursing homes, big-box stores, brew pubs, fast-food restaurants, beauty salons and hospitals.

Discount stores dot the landscape, including a Family Dollar downtown near the upscale Bluewater Grille, reflecting how much American cities have experienced a hollowing-out of the middle class.

“Chattanooga has a twofold problem: the low level of educational attainment and the traditional jobs that these people move into have largely disappeared,” said Matthew N. Murray, an economist at the University of Tennessee. Just 23 percent of Tennessee adults have a bachelor’s degree.

JeraLee Kincaid, 23, is an $8.50-an-hour cashier who works at the checkout booth at a parking garage next to the Marriott Courtyard hotel downtown. A solid student in high school, Ms. Kincaid, who lives with her mother, planned to study computer programming in college, but instead her family decided that she needed to help pay the medical bills of a 5-year-old niece who has leukemia.

“She can’t eat, talk or walk by herself,” said Ms. Kincaid. She says she feels stuck, but also grateful that her boss is trying to help find her a scholarship to attend college.

When Volkswagen opened a $1 billion assembly plant in 2011, 80,000 people applied for 2,000 jobs paying an average of $19.50 an hour. Many low-wage workers, like Ms. McCurdy — a high school dropout who later obtained her high school equivalency diploma — would have loved to work there, but they faced difficulty mastering the math tests given for jobs that involve advanced machinery.

“We understand that more individuals have to get some kind of higher education degree or certificate to have a chance in this world,” said Chattanooga’s mayor, Andy Berke. “We don’t want the South to be a place where businesses go to find low-wage, low-education jobs. That’s a long-term problem that midsized cities in the South face.”

Here as well as elsewhere, a college degree cannot guarantee a good job.

Landon Howard graduated from the University of Tennessee campus here four years ago with a bachelor’s degree in social work, but has been unable to find a job in that field. Instead he is a prep cook at the trendy Tupelo Honey Cafe. Often scheduled for just 15 to 20 hours a week at $9.50 an hour, he usually takes home less than $200 a week.

“I’ve had to move back in with my parents,” Mr. Howard said. His most urgent concern is his lack of dental insurance. “One of my teeth is cracked,” he said. “There’s a big gaping hole. I don’t know if I’m going to lose it.”

Ms. McCurdy, as a parent in a modest income bracket, would not usually be eligible for the state’s Medicaid program, although her children would, but she was accepted because of a heart condition requiring costly medications.

Her family has had to make many sacrifices since she was laid off in 2012 from her job as a full-time nurse’s assistant in the emergency room of Memorial Hospital.

Her fall to $9 an hour at the assisted living facility from $13.75 at the hospital forced her to give up a 2,000-square-foot home in Harrison, a local suburb, “which is beautiful, and you have better schools,” she said.

“It was a good life,” she added. “You didn’t have to worry about violence or anyone breaking in.”

After being laid off, “I realized I couldn’t afford to stay in a house where the rent was $625 a month,” she said. So she found a $400-a-month, 1,100-square foot house in Brainerd, known for its gangs and violence. “I stay in at night,” she said. “I put bars on the windows.”

The new house has two modest bedrooms, a largely unfurnished living room, a bathroom and a small shotgun kitchen “where I got to move the table when my son gets up from dinner,” she said. “Imagine being in a two-bedroom place with a 6-2, 280-pound boy and a little girl. Me and my little girl share a room.”
Continue reading the main story
Recent Comments
Karl Bonner
2 days ago

It's time to cut the nonsense about how the working poor deserve to be poor, and any raise in the minimum wage will cause a debilitating...
suzinne
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While wages have remained stagnant for many years, the cost of everything has consistently risen. Rents here in NYC are off the charts. ...
MIMA
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To Joe BYour words are so true. Infect is the exact way to put it.This has been an infectious epidemic - put on us by the wealthy and...

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They also share a bed, but Jer’Maya keeps her dolls, books and clothes in Charles’s room, among his footballs and athletic gear. Ms. McCurdy receives $400 a month in food stamps. Without it, she said, “we wouldn’t be eating.”

Still, Ms. McCurdy worries about her children’s future.

“I have a son that’s graduating in May,” she said. “He’s looking at college. My heart is pounding 99 miles per hour. If he goes on full scholarship, I’ll still need to support him — how to pay his cellphone bill, how to pay for transportation and food during vacations.”

Her February utility bill just arrived and it stunned her: $320. She may again turn to Metropolitan Ministries for help, although she says she hopes the $3,000 or so she expects to receive from the earned-income tax credit will help her pay that bill — and also buy a new living room couch.

Rebecca Whelchel says she has seen big changes in the clientele since she became the executive director of Metropolitan Ministries eight years ago.

“It used to be that folks came in with a single issue — it was like, ‘I have to buy a new tire because my tire blew out,’ or, ‘I’m short on my electrical bill,’ ” Ms. Whelchel said. “Now they come in with a rubber band around a bunch of bills and problems. Everything is wrong. Everything is tangled with everything else.”

At age 34, Nick Mason earns $9 an hour as an assistant manager for a Domino’s, overseeing a crew of six. “I don’t think $9 is fair — I’ve been working in the pizza business for 19 years, since I was 15,” he said.

He attended the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga, studying to become a registered nurse, but he dropped out as a sophomore when his marriage fell apart. He returned to work full time, and he and his children moved in with his parents in the suburb of Hixson.

“I just wish we could have our home, but I can’t afford to,” said Mr. Mason, father of 7-year-old Halle and 5-year-old Eli. “That’s what the kids keep asking for.”

“We’ve had to sacrifice a lot of things,” he continued. “I’d love nothing more than to give them what they deserve. As a single father, it’s impossible. I put my kids in karate about a year ago. They loved it, but I got to the point where it was a choice between paying for a cellphone or karate, and as a manager, I need a cellphone for people to keep in touch with me.”

Mr. Mason has heard the criticisms: Stop complaining about your pay; just go back to school and that way you’ll find a better-paying job.

“I would love to go back to school,” he said. “It’s easy for people to say that because they haven’t been in my shoes. I’m already busy every minute of the day. I already don’t get to see my kids enough. I doubt I’ll be able to afford school, and I don’t know where I would find the time.”

His big hope is to be promoted to run a Domino’s, which might mean earning $15 an hour.

Ms. McCurdy, who applied for two dozen jobs this winter, delivered good news with a big smile. She was offered a job as a full-time nurse’s aide on the transition medical floor at Erlanger Health System, a hospital.

“They’re paying me $10.64,” she said, an improvement over the $9 an hour she had been earning. “That gives me a little room to breathe.”

Hards Alumni

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I absolutely anticipate being able to replace 90% of what my current employees do with automated systems in the next ten to fifteen years.  Not sure how much we will have to cut payroll, but zero jobs will be eliminated.

Obviously, this is anecdotal.

mu03eng

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I was hoping you would focus more on the potential post-scarce economy I had spoken of, but that's ok.

When you talk about people working hard, and enjoying the fruits of their labor, I find that funny. How many people lost their savings and retirement thanks to the recession/housing crash? So much for the fruits of their labor. Similarly to all the pension funds that were raided and then the people who had paid their whole lives were told the states are bankrupt. Problems for everyone: haves, have-nots, lifelong hard workers, etc.

So, what do you think about a post-scarce economy? Would our society and cultural hierarchy be able to handle that situation?

I think the concept of not enough jobs being available to the population is a myth.  If you go back and look at the news and literature of the time in the transition from an agrarian to industrial society in the US, having enough jobs was a major concern.  We are in the midst of another such transition and while things will become automated there will be plenty of other things that will need to be done to leverage that automation.  Not to mention the jobs required to develop/maintain the automation.

My point is, we shouldn't plan for no jobs, we should be planning for the new jobs as we transition over the next 10-15 years.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Yes. No minimum wage if everyone is already getting enough to live on.

Money comes from existing funds in social welfare programs, and savings from getting rid of the bureaucracy payroll.

And yes, if people can't afford food, they have to make due until their next check. Everyone is in the same boat.

How do children play into this?  When does one start drawing this minimum wage?
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Coleman

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Happening in droves today.....and you can imagine those that are doing the paying aren't too pleased by it.  As those jobs go away, then you continue to shrink the doers and payers. Eventually they're going to look up from their desk and why are they busting their arse for everyone else doing nothing.



Wouldn't you argue its more equitable if you, and everyone else who works, gets the same check every month, as those who do nothing?


Coleman

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How do children play into this?  When does one start drawing this minimum wage?

Again,  poverty level. Poverty level adjusts for family size. You start drawing when you are no longer claimed as a dependent, same as other poverty level guidelines already in existence.  And yes, this would adjust from year to year. Not sure why that would be a bad thing.



According to US Federal poverty guidelines:

 Poverty guideline


For families/households with more than 8 persons, add $4,060 for each additional person.
 



1

$11,670



 2

15,730



3

19,790



4

23,850



5

27,910



6

31,970



7

36,030



8

40,090

LAZER

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McLame ...I have no doubt he wanted a new one.

I'm old enough to remember 1986 when Reagan did and the promise was THIS IS THE ONE AND ONLY TIME WE WILL EVER DO THIS.

What a load of crap.  It was billed as a ONE TIME AMNESTY.  Borders were now going to be enforced, employers penalized, blah blah blah.  An absolute pile of dung piled high and deep.

You wonder why so many people aren't thrilled with gov't, it is because of so many BS promises that have been absolutely broken to get legislation, programs, etc passed.  People aren't stupid, they are cynical for a reason...except those that are kool aid drinkers.
So there is clearly some sort of benefit to both parties, rather than liberals just rounding up "taker" votes.

mu03eng

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Again,  poverty level. Poverty level adjusts for family size. You start drawing when you are no longer claimed as a dependent, same as other poverty level guidelines already in existence.  And yes, this would adjust from year to year. Not sure why that would be a bad thing.



According to US Federal poverty guidelines:

 Poverty guideline


For families/households with more than 8 persons, add $4,060 for each additional person.
 



1

$11,670



 2

15,730



3

19,790



4

23,850



5

27,910



6

31,970



7

36,030



8

40,090


So what mechanism prevents people from having a bunch of kids and grabbing "their" money and neglecting the kids?

Adjusting year to year isn't inherently bad, but it would have physiological impact when it goes down
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Coleman

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So what mechanism prevents people from having a bunch of kids and grabbing "their" money and neglecting the kids?

Adjusting year to year isn't inherently bad, but it would have physiological impact when it goes down

Nothing is fool proof. I just think this would be better than the system we have. That's all.

Spotcheck Billy

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^ I agree, I wonder about the folks that resist any change because the end result won't be perfect, nothing is, so what if its an big improvement.

I'm not saying the Swiss dole example is the way to go.

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So if jobs are going to continue to be removed and replaced by technology, can someone explain to me why we have a gov't that refused to enforce our borders and allows the population to swell even more?  A population that will also have to be fed, sheltered, clothed, etc?


Why would this be?   ::)

When robots replace policeman, teachers and fire fighters we can only hope the politicians will go the way of the dinosaurs as well and then there would be no need for taxes.