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Author Topic: Bubble Watch 2018  (Read 240581 times)

cheese ball chaser

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #325 on: February 21, 2018, 08:49:09 AM »
I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much.  The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
  • American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot.  Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
  • A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play.  St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid.  This would be one to watch IMO
  • CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large.  Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
  • Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid.  But I think they would need to win out to get one.  Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
  • Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO.  Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot.  But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
  • Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
  • WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one.  Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.

So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer.  I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there.  Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.

Loyola Chicago is in. They clinched a share of the MVC title and are in basically all brackets averaging a 12 seed right now.

mu03eng

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #326 on: February 21, 2018, 08:49:20 AM »
I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.

That's a style of play problem. They literally have no way to not step on the gas. There offense is entirely predicated on playing against a defense that isn't set and if they take the press off or try and slow the offense they can do almost nothing.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #327 on: February 21, 2018, 08:55:11 AM »
There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those.  Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.

We don't have to leapfrog those teams, we just need to have slightly better results than us. The majority of our bubblemates have backloaded conference schedules meaning there is going to be carnage amongst the bubble teams. We have probably the easiest remaining schedule of the bubble teams so we should have the path to success. Gotta win the games but 3-1 more than likely gets us in.
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WarriorInNYC

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #328 on: February 21, 2018, 08:55:56 AM »
Loyola Chicago is in. They clinched a share of the MVC title and are in basically all brackets averaging a 12 seed right now.

Ummmm they are in basically all brackets right now because they are projected to win the MVC tournament and take their at-large bid.  I don't thinkn if they were to lose one more game from here on out if they would take an at-large bid.

Edit:  Actually, I don't see how they take an at-large bid at all.  Right now, their best win is @Florida (current RPI 65).  After that?  Home against Southern Illinois (80) and @Illinois State (90).

They also have losses @Milwaukee (244), @Missouri State (117), home to Indiana State (186), and @Bradley (104)
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 09:03:44 AM by WarriorInNYC »

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #329 on: February 21, 2018, 08:58:13 AM »
What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.

Mr 9-9-9, we are talk mid-majors, not low majors.   8-)

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #330 on: February 21, 2018, 09:34:24 AM »
I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much.  The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
  • American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot.  Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
  • A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play.  St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid.  This would be one to watch IMO
  • CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large.  Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
  • Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid.  But I think they would need to win out to get one.  Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
  • Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO.  Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot.  But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
  • Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
  • WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one.  Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.

So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer.  I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there.  Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.

This is a good post.  Thanks for the work.

Loyola and South Dakota State aren't getting at larges.  I'd bet everything I own on that.  New Mexico State (WAC) and the Ragin Cajuns (Sun Belt) probably had the next best chance (in terms of true mid to low majors), but they have a COMBINED 2 Q1 and Q2 wins.  They aren't getting at larges.

I think Conference USA and the Mountain West are the only true concerns.  Plus a major conference or two, but we're looking at worst case scenario 3-4 bid stealers. 

I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #331 on: February 21, 2018, 09:45:06 AM »
Tonight 2/21

Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want

Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble

North Carolina @ Syracuse

Clemson @ Virginia Tech

Michigan @ Penn State

TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out

Louisville @ Duke

Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now

Alabama @ Auburn

Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes

Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure

Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now

Boise State @ Colorado State

USC @ Colorado

Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any


JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #332 on: February 21, 2018, 09:49:42 AM »
We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

jsglow

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #333 on: February 21, 2018, 09:53:30 AM »
We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight.

Let's hope it not us!

BM1090

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #334 on: February 21, 2018, 09:58:59 AM »
We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight.

And also a few will probably pick up big home wins. Most worried about Syracuse, Penn State and Virginia Tech

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #335 on: February 21, 2018, 10:11:39 AM »
And also a few will probably pick up big home wins. Most worried about Syracuse, Penn State and Virginia Tech

I don't see Cuse beating UNC or Penn State beating MSU.

VT over Clemson I could see, because I don't think Clemson is anywhere near as good as their record. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #336 on: February 21, 2018, 10:19:44 AM »
I don't see Cuse beating UNC or Penn State beating MSU.

VT over Clemson I could see, because I don't think Clemson is anywhere near as good as their record.

Penn State plays Michigan and they are favored by 3

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #337 on: February 21, 2018, 10:27:01 AM »
Penn State plays Michigan and they are favored by 3

Ahh, thanks for correction...misread your post.  Yah, different story there. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

TheREALwrk

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #338 on: February 21, 2018, 10:29:53 AM »
Are we rooting for K-State or Texas tonight?

https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/966329976839602177

WarriorInNYC

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #339 on: February 21, 2018, 10:40:15 AM »
This is a good post.  Thanks for the work.

Loyola and South Dakota State aren't getting at larges.  I'd bet everything I own on that.  New Mexico State (WAC) and the Ragin Cajuns (Sun Belt) probably had the next best chance (in terms of true mid to low majors), but they have a COMBINED 2 Q1 and Q2 wins.  They aren't getting at larges.

I think Conference USA and the Mountain West are the only true concerns.  Plus a major conference or two, but we're looking at worst case scenario 3-4 bid stealers.

Yeah, I think Loyola and South Dakota State could have a case (not saying they would make it) for an at-large bid if they were to win out.  I don't see how they could get one at all if they lost one game the rest of the way.  That, in essence, takes that scenario away since if they were to win out, they would get the auto bid.

I had Louisiana and New Mexico State as possible teams that could as well until the last several weeks.  New Mexico State suffered back to back losses to Utah Valley and Seattle.  I don't think they'd get one now, and especially not if they were to lose in the WAC tourney.

I thought Louisiana had a slim chance originally due to the sheer number of wins and no completely terrible losses (@Ole Miss, Wyoming neutral court, and @Clemson).  But then their loss to Georgia State was the nail in the coffin for me, coupled with no big wins.

CUSA is a concern, but I do think I'm worried more about A10 than CUSA.  Mid Tennessee & Western Kentucky aren't quite shoe-ins for at-large bids at the moment though both would be considered bubble teams at the least.

MU82

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #340 on: February 21, 2018, 10:49:40 AM »

Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any

St. John's at Marquette

Seriously, thanks for doing this every day. Very useful.
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cheese ball chaser

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #341 on: February 21, 2018, 11:47:23 AM »
Ummmm they are in basically all brackets right now because they are projected to win the MVC tournament and take their at-large bid.  I don't thinkn if they were to lose one more game from here on out if they would take an at-large bid.

Edit:  Actually, I don't see how they take an at-large bid at all.  Right now, their best win is @Florida (current RPI 65).  After that?  Home against Southern Illinois (80) and @Illinois State (90).

They also have losses @Milwaukee (244), @Missouri State (117), home to Indiana State (186), and @Bradley (104)

I was mistaken then, I thought that regular season conference winners got at-large bids but it's only the conference tournament winners.

WarriorInNYC

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #342 on: February 21, 2018, 12:07:49 PM »
I was mistaken then, I thought that regular season conference winners got at-large bids but it's only the conference tournament winners.

Auto bids, not at-large.

Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.

jsglow

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #343 on: February 21, 2018, 01:11:42 PM »
Auto bids, not at-large.

Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.

Correct.

MU82

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #344 on: February 21, 2018, 01:21:17 PM »
Auto bids, not at-large.

Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.

Yes, this is why it is much more difficult to make the NIT now than it was 5+ years ago.
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wisblue

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #345 on: February 21, 2018, 01:29:39 PM »
I don't believe the bolded is correct.  Lunardi definitely does it as if the season ended today. 100% certain of that.  I believe most bracketologists do it that way, but certainly some lesser known guys may project outwards (but that becomes alot more difficult and time consuming to do so).

If you are 100% sure that Lunardi doesn't do this, I will defer. But, I know that there are at least some "bracketologists" that do their projected brackets this way. For example, the Warren Nolan site has a handy "nitty gritty report" with a table showing the main factors the NCAA considers and links to the NCAA "team sheets". It also has a projected Nitty Gritty Report and projected team sheets and I think he uses those to project a bracket.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/nitty-team-predict

I was under the impression (and I'm not sure where I got that impression) that Lunardi did something similar.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 01:37:02 PM by wisblue »

94Warrior

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #346 on: February 21, 2018, 01:30:22 PM »
Tonight 2/21

Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want

Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble

North Carolina @ Syracuse

Clemson @ Virginia Tech

Michigan @ Penn State

TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out

Louisville @ Duke

Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now

Alabama @ Auburn

Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes

Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure

Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now

Boise State @ Colorado State

USC @ Colorado

Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any

SHU is interesting.  We want those wins as Q1, but we'd also like them to finish behind MU in conference, which looks likely if we get to 9-9.  Which is more important?

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #347 on: February 21, 2018, 01:41:03 PM »
SHU is interesting.  We want those wins as Q1, but we'd also like them to finish behind MU in conference, which looks likely if we get to 9-9.  Which is more important?

We want Hall to win this one.  They still have @SJU, vs. Nova, vs. Butler.  IMO, at best, they're going 2-2 to finish 9-9 (3-1 is certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it).  For it to really matter for MU, we'll need to be 9-9 as well.  If Hall loses tonight, their road to 9-9 is fairly difficult, and then could lose Q1 status for our home win over them. 

But yah, if Hall finishes 10-8 and MU 9-9, its going to be alot tougher for MU to get a bye unless PC loses out or Creighton goes 1-3.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #348 on: February 21, 2018, 02:38:07 PM »
We want Hall to win this one.  They still have @SJU, vs. Nova, vs. Butler.  IMO, at best, they're going 2-2 to finish 9-9 (3-1 is certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it).  For it to really matter for MU, we'll need to be 9-9 as well.  If Hall loses tonight, their road to 9-9 is fairly difficult, and then could lose Q1 status for our home win over them. 

But yah, if Hall finishes 10-8 and MU 9-9, its going to be alot tougher for MU to get a bye unless PC loses out or Creighton goes 1-3.

Creighton is 8-7 so they only have to go 1-2 now. Assuming they beat DePaul, they just have to lose to Nova and MU for us to pass them.


JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Bubble Watch 2018
« Reply #349 on: February 21, 2018, 02:59:15 PM »
Creighton is 8-7 so they only have to go 1-2 now. Assuming they beat DePaul, they just have to lose to Nova and MU for us to pass them.

Yah, I guess I am assuming a loss to Creighton in the 9-9 scenario.  But it definitely could come elsewhere.  If MU and Creighton end up tied at 9-9 (and 1-1 H2H), I guess it depends who the 3 seed ends up being for the tie breaker.  Unless Hall falls in at 9-9 as well, MU wins that mini-conference, which is another attainable result.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.