MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: tower912 on January 28, 2024, 04:04:35 PM
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Social workers and mental health workers mental should be paid more. Volunteering is good. Economy is doing really well but those on the fringes are struggling.
What did I miss?
Argue away and lock it up.
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Thanks for starting this, tower. I'll re-post my comment from earlier this afternoon in the Investing thread ...
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From a Washington Post article about the U.S. economy outperforming those of other developed countries:
The $28 trillion U.S. economy weathered multiple shocks over the past year and returned to the growth path it was on before the pandemic. The size of the economy, adjusted for inflation, regained its pre-pandemic peak in early 2021. Through the end of September, it was more than 7 percent larger than before the pandemic. That was more than twice Japan’s gain and far better than Germany’s anemic 0.3 percent increase, according to British Parliament data.
For most Americans, the growth paid off in the form of higher wages. Over the four years through September, the most recent comparison available, U.S. wages — after inflation — grew 2.8 percent.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/28/global-economy-gdp-inflation/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most
The U.S. economy isn't perfect, obviously, but it is healthy and growing by most available data. Good to see wages rising, even after inflation is factored in.
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Layoffs all over the place, growth of costs far outpacing wages, business closing
It’s a bit of a sh1t show, imo.
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JayBee
There has been a slew of layoffs and likely more to come. While many believe corporate greed is a big part of the inflation we have seen, costs have gone up like crazy. IMO, there a lot of $100k jobs that may be lost in 2024.
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Layoffs all over the place, growth of costs far outpacing wages, business closing
It’s a bit of a sh1t show, imo.
You hit on the reason for historically low unemployment. ;D ;D Way to think it through
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JayBee
There has been a slew of layoffs and likely more to come. While many believe corporate greed is a big part of the inflation we have seen, costs have gone up like crazy. IMO, there a lot of $100k jobs that may be lost in 2024.
I guess if you keep predicting doom you might be right someday.
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Sultan
I am hoping for nothing but positive things from the US economy. There is no prediction of doom. Not sure on why my expecting more layoffs is a prediction of doom.
My small company had struggled mightily the last year+ and that is on me. I did not plan accordingly for large clients cutting back or the affect that rising costs would have on a small company. Believe it or not, but big companies cutting costs has a serious affect on a big number of small companies.
That said, we had our best month, both in revenues and profit, in January in over 18 months. I’m hoping, praying for a robust economy because it benefits everyone.
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I think JB has a point. Businesses are closing. Conversely, I see a ridiculous amount of construction, including in manufacturing. I see help wanted signs everywhere. Some businesses are closing because they can't find enough employees to hire.
So, IMO, lots of different things, lots of signs pointing all over the place. Like I said to Goose ages ago, there are always headwinds. Now is no different. But there also huge opportunities.
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Sultan
I am hoping for nothing but positive things from the US economy. There is no prediction of doom. Not sure on why my expecting more layoffs is a prediction of doom.
My small company had struggled mightily the last year+ and that is on me. I did not plan accordingly for large clients cutting back or the affect that rising costs would have on a small company. Believe it or not, but big companies cutting costs has a serious affect on a big number of small companies.
That said, we had our best month, both in revenues and profit, in January in over 18 months. I’m hoping, praying for a robust economy because it benefits everyone.
Goose, sorry to hear that your small company has struggled and I respect your insight into these matters, which are far from my area of expertise.
It is without a doubt true, that the economy has been thriving, and significantly outperforming the rest of the world. By traditional metrics, we may never have had such a strong economy.
That said, I can't help but wonder though if you might be hitting on part of the problem. Small businesses are struggling and many of the average Americans are not feeling as strong as the overall economy. I wonder if that is because of how policies are designed. They are primarily designed to benefit those at the top, who then reap the benefits of policy decisions, while the rest just try to make due and survive.
Unless we start to focus on the factors affecting middle (medium) and bottom (small) of both the individual and business ladders I think we might continue to live in a fractured economic landscape, until the problems filter up.
Just some thoughts, that may be horrifically wrong.
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Layoffs all over the place
Nope
(https://images2.imgbox.com/99/7c/P99EFWVN_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/P99EFWVN)
growth of costs far outpacing wages
Nope
(https://images2.imgbox.com/cb/35/EKP62OnT_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/EKP62OnT)
It’s a bit of a sh1t show, imo.
And nope
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Goose, sorry to hear that your small company has struggled and I respect your insight into these matters, which are far from my area of expertise.
It is without a doubt true, that the economy has been thriving, and significantly outperforming the rest of the world. By traditional metrics, we may never have had such a strong economy.
That said, I can't help but wonder though if you might be hitting on part of the problem. Small businesses are struggling and many of the average Americans are not feeling as strong as the overall economy. I wonder if that is because of how policies are designed. They are primarily designed to benefit those at the top, who then reap the benefits of policy decisions, while the rest just try to make due and survive.
Unless we start to focus on the factors affecting middle (medium) and bottom (small) of both the individual and business ladders I think we might continue to live in a fractured economic landscape, until the problems filter up.
Just some thoughts, that may be horrifically wrong.
I think it's certain sectors that are lagging, specifically US manufacturing. Small biz isn't suffering, at least none that I interact with.
Here's a look at a breakdown of shrink and then growth from 2020-2022 https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/total-nonfarm-employment-recovers-in-2022-with-some-major-industry-sectors-lagging-behind.htm
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Social workers and mental health workers mental should be paid more. Volunteering is good. Economy is doing really well but those on the fringes are struggling.
What did I miss?
Argue away and lock it up.
Inflation is a run-a-way freight train, labor market sucks since no one wants to work, and fuel prices have been wonderfully raised to push the pawns to buy into the BOTUS' Green Energy Plan. Election day can't come quick enough, aina?
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Inflation is a run-a-way freight train, labor market sucks since no one wants to work, and fuel prices have been wonderfully raised to push the pawns to buy into the BOTUS' Green Energy Plan. Election day can't come quick enough, aina?
🤡
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Inflation is a run-a-way freight train, labor market sucks since no one wants to work, and fuel prices have been wonderfully raised to push the pawns to buy into the BOTUS' Green Energy Plan. Election day can't come quick enough, aina?
Did you donate to help pay off the $83 million settlement against the rapist?
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Inflation is a run-a-way freight train, labor market sucks since no one wants to work, and fuel prices have been wonderfully raised to push the pawns to buy into the BOTUS' Green Energy Plan. Election day can't come quick enough, aina?
You are wrong a lot.
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Huh? Just more forward thinkin' than lotsa folks here, hey?
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Huh? Just more forward thinkin' than lotsa folks here, hey?
No. Just wrong.
But that’s your usual state so I’m sure you’re used to it.
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Did you donate to help pay off the $83 million settlement against the rapist?
Donald Trump is a therapist? Who knew.
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Donald Trump is a therapist? Who knew.
I'm a little shocked you didn't go after 4Qver for his ultra-political post, Lenny.
Oh wait ... he's on your team. Never mind.
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Forgetful
Thanks for your comments. I fully understand what I signed up for as a small biz owner and very happy to be one. Not every day is a walk in the park, but would not trade it for anything.
Best part, I am sure there countless scoopers that will point out that SME’s are stronger than ever and all is well on the economic front in the USA.
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I'm a little shocked you didn't go after 4Qver for his ultra-political post, Lenny.
Oh wait ... he's on your team. Never mind.
4ever is my friend, not some Scoop political ally/team member. We agree on a lot of things and disagree on others.
You have more political posts than 4ever, Rocket and every other non lefty here combined. Hundreds and hundreds that I’ve never “gone after”. You break the rules constantly and consciously and get a free pass. Playing the victim under those circumstances makes you look hypocritical. You’re better than that.
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4ever is my friend, not some Scoop political ally/team member. We agree on a lot of things and disagree on others.
You have more political posts than 4ever, Rocket and every other non lefty here combined. Hundreds and hundreds that I’ve never “gone after”. You break the rules constantly and consciously and get a free pass. Playing the victim under those circumstances makes you look hypocritical. You’re better than that.
Sorry, my friend, but in this case you're the hypocrite. You're better than that.
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Nope
(https://images2.imgbox.com/99/7c/P99EFWVN_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/P99EFWVN)
Nope
(https://images2.imgbox.com/cb/35/EKP62OnT_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/EKP62OnT)
And nope
You’re not seeing it in your little hillbilly box. You shall be enlightened in time. It’s bad, bad news.
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Inflation is a run-a-way freight train, labor market sucks since no one wants to work, and fuel prices have been wonderfully raised to push the pawns to buy into the BOTUS' Green Energy Plan. Election day can't come quick enough, aina?
I mean, I *could* show you the actual data that shows every one of your statements is wildly inaccurate and mere figments of the fevered imagination of the right-wing echo chamber, but what would be the point? You and your brethren are so addled from the constant deluge of disinformation that you willing slurp down that reality has no way to intrude on your dystopian fantasies.
Time to go back to the basement and monitor the police channels for the latest crime reports.
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The characterization that the left "raises fuel prices to push pawns to buy into green energy" is such nihlistic Stockholm syndrome, its a real bummer for anyone younger than say, 50. It takes so much subsidizing, white knuckling, and soul-selling to cling to fossil fuels and keep them affordable vs shifting even some of that effort into developing renewable energy that only people who truly spite the young too much to want to make things better could fall for it.
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The characterization that the left "raises fuel prices to push pawns to buy into green energy" is such nihlistic Stockholm syndrome, its a real bummer for anyone younger than say, 50. It takes so much subsidizing, white knuckling, and soul-selling to cling to fossil fuels and keep them affordable vs shifting even some of that effort into developing renewable energy that only people who truly spite the young too much to want to make things better could fall for it.
It just goes back to the fundamental issue with all of this. How does green energy win? By becoming cheaper, if not on par, with fossil fuels. This is done through technical innovation and transformative R&D.
Its not going to happen through punitive measures against fossil fuel usage or shaming people. Because whats done in the US and Europe, no matter how effective, will just get undone elsewhere in the developing world until the aforementioned happens.
As a result, I think there is a huge element of the renewable/green energy push that is just performative nonsense to make people feel good at best, and a racket to make a bunch of money at worse? Absolutely. Ask anyone who has had to make a company or process "green" or carbon neutral without a major corporation budget or consultancy. Its a joke.
That being said, are they opposed by massive fossil fuel lobbying/special interest groups who will oppose clean energy development at any turn? Absolutely. And they are insidious.
The answer to all of this is nuclear power, but 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl are overblown bogeymen decades later at the expense of our planet and its future.
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It just goes back to the fundamental issue with all of this. How does green energy win? By becoming cheaper, if not on par, with fossil fuels. This is done through technical innovation and transformative R&D.
Its not going to happen through punitive measures against fossil fuel usage or shaming people. Because whats done in the US and Europe, no matter how effective, will just get undone elsewhere in the developing world until the aforementioned happens.
I think you're right and wrong here.
Completely agree that the long-term solution to less reliance on fossil fuels and greater use of green/sustainable energy is innovation that makes the latter more economical.
However, until we reach a point where the traditional energy options become truly unsustainable or too expensive - and that doesn't seem to be the case anytime in the near future - the incentive for the transformative R&D you speak of is greatly reduced. There may be a carrot, but it's a baby carrot. So, one might argue, there also needs to be a stick.
This may be an imperfect analogy, but it's like the severely obese person waiting until after they're in cardiac arrest to get serious about diet and exercise. Sure, it's a really effective incentive, but why wait for that inflection point? Right now, we're that fat person who knows that eating fast food in front of the TV (dependence on fossil fuels) is ultimately bad for us, but we keep doing it anyway because it's cheaper and easier than making healthy meals and hitting the gym.
As for shaming people ... meh. Do people really feel shamed when they fill up their SUV?
And I wouldn't go so far as to call Chernobyl an "overblown bogeymen" - there's roughly 4,000 dead people who may beg to differ, if they could - but I agree that the risks of nuclear power are largely overstated. Fortunately, we seem to be turning a corner on that (see: five states, including Illinois, have lifted moratoriums on reactors since 2016).
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If we remove subsidies on fossil fuels, how do the costs stack up vs renewables?
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If we remove subsidies on fossil fuels, how do the costs stack up vs renewables?
100% that it is all about $$$$.
That’s what baffles me about reluctance to convert quicker. I understand that fossil fuel corporations spend big money on bribery, but the future is sustainable energy. That is where the really big money is.
Do we want to let China or another country be on the leading edge? One thing America is definitely not good at - planning for the future.
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Tech companies have been laying off tens of thousands of employees the last year-plus; for the major corporations, much of the reason for the cuts is to increase profits to help share price. Here is a report from the NYT's DealBook newsletter:
Tech giants are set to report quarterly earnings, starting today with Alphabet and Microsoft. Wall Street is expecting good news, including more progress on artificial intelligence.
But the industry has also relied on another strategy to improve financials: layoffs. The cuts aren’t as widespread as last year, when hundreds of thousands of jobs were eliminated. But they’re a reminder that the tech sector is still trying to find its footing after a boom in hiring during the coronavirus pandemic and finding ways to preserve dizzying stock gains.
About 100 companies have cut 25,000 positions this year, according to Layoffs.fyi. By comparison, more than 1,000 companies eliminated about 260,000 last year.
So far this month: Microsoft announced 1,900 cuts in its video game division, including at its recently acquired Activision Blizzard; Google laid off hundreds of employees, including in its engineering ranks and its hardware division; and Amazon said it was laying off hundreds, including 35 percent of the work force at its Twitch unit.
Not all layoffs are the same, The Times notes:
++ For big tech companies, job cuts have been a way to reduce spending on noncore operations and extract the kind of cost savings that Wall Street loves. Now, those cuts are more targeted: In the case of Meta, that means reducing the number of middle managers at Instagram.
++For smaller tech businesses, it’s more a matter of survival. Start-ups have been finding it harder to raise capital as risk-averse venture capitalists keep their wallets closed. In the words of Nabeel Hyatt, a general partner at Spark Capital, these fledgling companies “are just trying to gain runway to survive.”
The cuts will probably continue so long as investors love them. Wall Street has rewarded tech companies that laid off thousands with higher stock prices. Meta’s shares have soared since it embarked on a self-described “year of efficiency” last year that has made it a third slimmer employee-wise. Those cost savings, coupled with a redoubled bet on A.I., has helped push the tech giant’s market value to over $1 trillion.
And venture capitalists have told DealBook that they’re ready to invest in start-ups — but that it helps if those companies have made themselves leaner. That, the investors say, will enable them to operate better in potentially difficult times.
I'll add a personal anecdote:
My SIL is a software engineer who apparently is talented, given his ability to go from one major company to another, always at nice pay raises. Last year, he decided to leave his employer for a much-better-paying job with another company. While he was negotiating with his new soon-to-be-new employer, his soon-to-be-former employer announced several thousand job cuts, including most of his department. As a result of being laid off, he received 8 weeks of severance pay, 3 months of full medical and other benefits. Meanwhile, he finalized his deal with his new company and negotiated a later start date because ... why not ... his previous employer was paying him handsomely to not work. So he got to spend extra time with his kids, and they went on a big family trip. He's very happy at his new employer (not so new, really, it's been almost a year now). He said that all of the people he knew in his department at the previous company who were laid off have found new jobs in the industry, though not all were at higher compensation.
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Similarly, and not surprisingly, my friends in tech are all terrified of the short- and long-term ramifications of AI on their job/career prospects. Quite the shoe-on-the-other-foot situation where tech is coming for THIER jobs.
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Similarly, and not surprisingly, my friends in tech are all terrified of the short- and long-term ramifications of AI on their job/career prospects. Quite the shoe-on-the-other-foot situation where tech is coming for THIER jobs.
MY SIL has talked about that, too. He thinks he'll be fine because he actually does some work in AI, but he thinks it could definitely affect some of his friends, as well as the next generation.
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Similarly, and not surprisingly, my friends in tech are all terrified of the short- and long-term ramifications of AI on their job/career prospects. Quite the shoe-on-the-other-foot situation where tech is coming for THIER jobs.
I think its a huge issue for "low" level coding/programming in the short term. But I still think AI is the big bogeyman that people are freaking out over absent actual reasoning/usage, much like "blockchain" over the last few years.
There are absolutely usages and its gonna be a sea change for any number of places, notably in tech. But I see more and more "using AI" as a buzzword without actually using AI.
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My wife has worked in big Pharma for the past 5-6 years and there are similarities to tech in regard to people moving around to higher paying jobs. Since the middle of last year my wife has seen a good number of her co-workers laid off and few jumping to new jobs. According to her, the hiring and poaching of people has slowed down a great deal. She had recruiters contacting her on a weekly basis for the past few years and she said that is down well over 50%.
IMO, it is largely due to companies being over staffed with high paying jobs and it is an easy target for cost cutting. While Sultan may believe I am a doomsday guy, I think the reality of things is that companies will do whatever is needed to hit profit numbers. I get it completely, but never understood the over staffing part of things.
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My wife has worked in big Pharma for the past 5-6 years and there are similarities to tech in regard to people moving around to higher paying jobs. Since the middle of last year my wife has seen a good number of her co-workers laid off and few jumping to new jobs. According to her, the hiring and poaching of people has slowed down a great deal. She had recruiters contacting her on a weekly basis for the past few years and she said that is down well over 50%.
IMO, it is largely due to companies being over staffed with high paying jobs and it is an easy target for cost cutting. While Sultan may believe I am a doomsday guy, I think the reality of things is that companies will do whatever is needed to hit profit numbers. I get it completely, but never understood the over staffing part of things.
As the economy opened back up after Covid, lots of people - especially (but not only) those over 55 - just completely left the workforce. They hadn't thought they'd retire that early but once they were out of work for months on end, they decided not to go back.
Meanwhile, during the worst of Covid, all the stuff you do at home was selling big-time: computers, laptops, video games, tablets, phones, subscription services. The big tech companies, as well as service companies, didn't have enough employees to meet demand. Same with hospitals and most medical industries. So there was a hiring frenzy.
Then, after the vaccines came out and Covid subsided to the point that people could go on with their lives, the economic recovery was robust (because it was rebounding from such a low level). Restaurants, bars and various "experiential" outfits were brimming with customers - or they would have been if they had enough staff to operate at full capacity. So again, there was a hiring frenzy in those industries.
But because the economy always ebbs and flows - and because it isn't a monolith, due to the bazillion industries and entities that make up the economy - many companies/industries realized they were overstaffed. So that necessitated some layoffs.
Kind of a simplistic view, and probably nothing you didn't know, but that's how I understand the basics of it.
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I've worked in software sales the last five years, and it's no joke how many companies, and not just the large ones like Salesforce, SAP, Oracle, Adobe...I am talking like business with like 50 -100 employees spent like drunken sailors with a fire hose of VC money on increasing their headcounts in late 2020, 2021 and 2022, assuming the astronomical growth could be sustained their solutions saw from the ramifications of COVID.
Before: GROW GROW GROW who cares what is costs
Now: GROW GROW GROW, no VC new money, cut jobs, and have a path to profitability in 18 months
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I think its a huge issue for "low" level coding/programming in the short term. But I still think AI is the big bogeyman that people are freaking out over absent actual reasoning/usage, much like "blockchain" over the last few years.
There are absolutely usages and its gonna be a sea change for any number of places, notably in tech. But I see more and more "using AI" as a buzzword without actually using AI.
I think you are correct re blockchain in terms of being a buzzword, when saying you were a blockchain company added multiples to your valuation. And now every single company is being asked about their AI strategy.
But while blockchain is a useful technology, I think the similarity ends there in terms of impact. AI, while really just sophisticated programming, is already having much wider spread impacts. Coding, copy editing, call centers, all of them are already being impacted. I think the breadth of impact will be quite amazing.
Thinking hopefully, I believe AI has the potential to improve our wildly expensive and inefficient healthcare system, amongst other things.
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So far this month: Microsoft announced 1,900 cuts in its video game division, including at its recently acquired Activision Blizzard; Google laid off hundreds of employees, including in its engineering ranks and its hardware division; and Amazon said it was laying off hundreds, including 35 percent of the work force at its Twitch unit.
This was a foretold consequence before the government allowed the merger/takeover
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UPS layin' off 12,000 employees. Oh and da economy iz just hummin' along purfectlee. Huh? Bullchit, aina?
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So they're laying off 2% of their workforce. And it's January, you know the month after a big holiday that requires a lot of deliveries that are no longer required.
12,000 out of 536,000. Meh ....
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So they're laying off 2% of their workforce. And it's January, you know the month after a big holiday that requires a lot of deliveries that are no longer required.
12,000 out of 536,000. Meh ....
It's not warehouse and delivery people getting laid off. The holiday bump in workers are hired as temporary / part time. This appears to be office people.
"The positions that would be eliminated this year are not union jobs, according to the Teamsters. The layoffs will instead affect managerial staff, “throughout the world and in all functions,” a statement by UPS said. The moves reflect a “change in the way we work,” Ms. Tomé said, and even if business rebounds, those jobs may not come back. Employees will also be expected to work from the office five days a week, she added."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/ups-layoffs-rising-wages-union-contract.html
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UPS layin' off 12,000 employees. Oh and da economy iz just hummin' along purfectlee. Huh? Bullchit, aina?
They should call E Jean Carroll, the woman raped by the Republican front runner. She can provide some loans
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UPS layin' off 12,000 employees. Oh and da economy iz just hummin' along purfectlee. Huh? Bullchit, aina?
Typical post by you.
Why don't you give us a list (it would be a long one) of new jobs created? I'm sure you would have posted about buggy makers who lost their jobs with the invention of the automobile - ignoring the new jobs created.
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I think you are correct re blockchain in terms of being a buzzword, when saying you were a blockchain company added multiples to your valuation. And now every single company is being asked about their AI strategy.
But while blockchain is a useful technology, I think the similarity ends there in terms of impact. AI, while really just sophisticated programming, is already having much wider spread impacts. Coding, copy editing, call centers, all of them are already being impacted. I think the breadth of impact will be quite amazing.
Thinking hopefully, I believe AI has the potential to improve our wildly expensive and inefficient healthcare system, amongst other things.
I dont disagree about the future of AI at all. I was more speaking to the similarity between the 2 in how they are used as buzzwords. The vast majority of transformative AI right now is not in "sexy" functions. Its taking care of the brutal slog work and other stuff behind the scenes. The stuff I'm talking about is people acting like they have some futuristic robot mind powering crazy app functions or other stuff.
For example, I know of a company that created app to combat fraud in the jewelry industry. Lots of talk in their marketing materials and social media about "AI powered" and "using artificial intelligence" to do XY and Z. In reality, its simple (and rather buggy) image matching done only if the fonts are exactly the same. And further, most matches actually have a manual human review as well. The only true "AI" is a chatbot the interfaces in the app. Ive seen plenty of other situations similar to this. Which is a far cry from where AI is gonna save tons of time, money, and human capital and create a ton of value in the near term.
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UPS layin' off 12,000 employees. Oh and da economy iz just hummin' along purfectlee. Huh? Bullchit, aina?
From Business Insider, Jan. 2, 2020:
Job cuts in the US were the highest in four years in 2019 even as the economy maintained a historically low unemployment rate, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Employers announced plans to eliminate 592,556 jobs last year, a 10% rise from 2018 levels.
Layoffs weren't just invented. They have happened in every economy, under every president, under every Congress, ever.
It's not always about your anger, your feelings and your devotion to your cause.
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UPS layin' off 12,000 employees. Oh and da economy iz just hummin' along purfectlee. Huh? Bullchit, aina?
Sucks for those being laid off, but I suspect even you're smart enough to recognize that layoffs at one company are not reflective of the labor market as a whole.
Said labor market added 216,000 jobs last month.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
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Typical post by you.
Why don't you give us a list (it would be a long one) of new jobs created? I'm sure you would have posted about buggy makers who lost their jobs with the invention of the automobile - ignoring the new jobs created.
Keep denying and defending anything the BOTUS spits out. The truth hurts, hey?
#economyisnotfine
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Keep denying and defending anything the BOTUS spits out. The truth hurts, hey?
#economyisnotfine
Could be
#explainsriseindentalcriminals
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82
Is it your SIL or BIL? Just curious.
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Sucks for those being laid off, but I suspect even you're smart enough to recognize that layoffs at one company are not reflective of the labor market as a whole.
Said labor market added 216,000 jobs last month.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Assumes facts not in evidence. His mind is gone.
This is the guy who insists that Obama is actually running the White House, and simultaneously insists that Biden is both senile AND brilliantly running a global scam to inflate oil prices in order to drive acceptance of green energy. The fact that he believes all three things at once is cognitive dissonance at its finest.
Any facts that conflict with his beliefs are dismissed as fake news.
Sad.
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Keep drinkin' the Kool-Aid. Can't wait to hear all about the Buffoon's plan to retaliate against Iran. Probably gonna freeze more bread, aina?
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82
Is it your SIL or BIL? Just curious.
Son in law.
And I do hope you note that it wasn't me who turned this new Economy thread, started by tower with best interests, into political theater.
Almost everybody, including you and I, have tried to keep it on topic.
IBTL
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Keep drinkin' the Kool-Aid. Can't wait to hear all about the Buffoon's plan to retaliate against Iran. Probably gonna freeze more bread, aina?
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-more-popular-taylor-swift-maga-biden-1234956829/amp/
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From the Sherwin-Williams earnings report:
"We expect to open 80 to 100 new stores in the U.S. and Canada in 2024. We'll also be focused on sales reps, capacity and productivity, system improvements and product innovation. Next month, at our Board of Directors meeting, we will recommend an annual dividend increase of 18.2% to $2.86 per share, up from $2.42 last year. If approved, this will mark the 46th consecutive year that we've increased our dividend."
Could have also gone in the Investing thread, but I thought this added a little information on the state of the economy.
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82
Oops on the SIL. For some reason I thought you had mentioned a SIL or BIL in the past on a different topic. I guess I should have figured that out on my own.
As for making this political theater, I was surprised the Rico chose to respond to Doc's UPS layoff post in the manner he did.
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82
Oops on the SIL. For some reason I thought you had mentioned a SIL or BIL in the past on a different topic. I guess I should have figured that out on my own.
As for making this political theater, I was surprised the Rico chose to respond to Doc's UPS layoff post in the manner he did.
You're right. It's been everyone other than Doc trying to turn this into politics.
Anyhoo ... how 'bout that economy?
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You're right. It's been everyone other than Doc trying to turn this into politics.
Anyhoo ... how 'bout that economy?
It sucks. We need to flip state houses and governorships to fix it. Election Day can’t come soon enough because gas prices are up because of the green initiatives and no one wants to work but unemployment is up because of layoffs and Iran
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Must be the season, hey?
Charter Communications, which operates Spectrum cable TV and broadband services, is closing a residential retention call center.
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Must be the season, hey?
Charter Communications, which operates Spectrum cable TV and broadband services, is closing a residential retention call center.
They should be able to find new jobs pretty easy since no one wants to work
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Must be the season, hey?
Charter Communications, which operates Spectrum cable TV and broadband services, is closing a residential retention call center.
Since the beginning of 2022, construction spending on new factories has more than doubled, from an annualized rate of $91 billion in January 2022 to $189 billion in April 2023, the latest data available. That’s the biggest jump, by far, in data going back to 2002.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-factory-boom-is-finally-happening-190048801.html
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It sucks. We need to flip state houses and governorships to fix it. Election Day can’t come soon enough because gas prices are up because of the green initiatives and no one wants to work but unemployment is up because of layoffs and Iran
'cause feebleminded Joe Biden is masterminding intricate global conspiracies. And the numbers showing higher than expected GDP, more job growth, and lower inflation are all fake. Also, the NFL is fixed so that Taylor Swift can crown Biden emperor at halftime of the Superbowl.
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Must be the season, hey?
Charter Communications, which operates Spectrum cable TV and broadband services, is closing a residential retention call center.
Good on AI!
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Wind energy orders are booming, a lot of them in the American south. Diversifying your power sources is good. Thanks IRA!
Nuclear is great until you have to run it in a for profit manner and realize its razor thin margins and decade plus to stand up at astronomical costs.
Unless we heavily subsidize but that’s worse than the fiery death of our planet to some.
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It's not warehouse and delivery people getting laid off. The holiday bump in workers are hired as temporary / part time. This appears to be office people.
"The positions that would be eliminated this year are not union jobs, according to the Teamsters. The layoffs will instead affect managerial staff, “throughout the world and in all functions,” a statement by UPS said. The moves reflect a “change in the way we work,” Ms. Tomé said, and even if business rebounds, those jobs may not come back. Employees will also be expected to work from the office five days a week, she added."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/ups-layoffs-rising-wages-union-contract.html
Did you see the part about it being 2%?
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Yeah, sum peepel wynn da lottery, aina?
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Yeah, sum peepel wynn da lottery, aina?
Like protected class CEO’s
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Yeah, sum peepel wynn da lottery, aina?
Megamillions is over $300MM right now
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Megamillions is over $300MM right now
But the taxes...
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A couple of follow-up thoughts on the economy:
1) Inflation is largely under control. Whether you agree with the Federal Reserve or not, it's done a nice job of bringing inflation down to close to its target level. So much so, that the Fed is signaling rate cuts for this year.
2) But most people don't feel the benefit of a stronger economy -- yet! Think about it: Two years ago, you could borrow for a home at 3.0 percent and car loans were virtually interest free. Most personal purpose loans were so cheap banks were almost giving them away. Today, mortgages are in the 6 percent to 8 percent rate. Car loans aint cheap and banks are tightening credit. The little guy doesn't feel the benefit because his salary hasn't kept pace -- and won't for a few years -- and his cost of borrowing is sky high. Note that the folks today have no idea what we boomers had to pay in the 1980s for credit.
3) We all want a clean environment -- even Republicans do! But we don't want to live in caves, ride Amtrak everywhere we go and generally retreat to an 1890s lifestyle void of energy. I think most of us will make intelligent choices with our global environment in mind, up to a point. You try to take a Floridian's air conditioning away in July and watch a nasty that will make an alligator look like a house pet. You disallow gas use in new Chicago buildings and you've created a huge economic incentive for suburban communities and Indiana!
4) As for the comment that Nukes are coming back: Not in my lifetime. We haven't permitted a new nuclear plant in the United States since the 1970s. The last ones that came on line are Byron and Braidwood in Illinois in the early 1980s. If any utility wanted to build a nuclear power plant, the permitting, design, litigation, funds raising, construction, inspections and operating permit issuance likely would take at least 25 years, probably longer. I just don't see it and the reward to a private entity for a limited, regulated, return isn't worth the risk taken. Period. P.S. -- Chernobyl is real! My daughter is a Child of Chernobyl (she was born 75 miles north of Chernobyl in an area heavily bombarded by radiation). She was born six years after Chernobyl and there are certain tests she has done every year to make sure she's staying healthy.
I'm bullish on 2024 but overall scared for 2025. Given the choice we have for President -- between senility and insanity -- 2025 is going to be a rough year as the winners use legislation to take retribution on the losers. The economy will be the real loser. The best we can hope for is split government, regardless of who wins!
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Dgies, you make rational points.
A note on nukes. A nuke plant in Michigan that was decommissioned two years ago is likely going to reopen using different, new technology.
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You try to take a Floridian's air conditioning away in July and watch a nasty that will make an alligator look like a house pet.
I'm bullish on 2024 but overall scared for 2025. Given the choice we have for President -- between senility and insanity -- 2025 is going to be a rough year as the winners use legislation to take retribution on the losers. The economy will be the real loser. The best we can hope for is split government, regardless of who wins!
While I agree with most of your long post, there are a couple areas that I disagree with.
1. Who is advocating for taking away air conditioning in Florida?
2. Biden is old and moves like it - but you're nuts if you think he is senile - or just maybe watched too much Fox. He has passed numerous important bills despite constant opposition. The economy is humming. +He is dealing with an entire party that has gone insane (i.e. Rs saying no money for Israel or Ukraine without money for the border. Biden and Ds say yes to money for the border and Rs say we won't pass ANY border legislation). These are not sane people.
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While I agree with most of your long post, there are a couple areas that I disagree with.
1. Who is advocating for taking away air conditioning in Florida?
Fortunately, our state has an excellent and comparatively inexpensive electric utility — Florida Power and Light. We should be set for the next 10 years, assuming our state doesn’t balloon in population to 100 million.
The reason I made the comment is concern over whether we will have enough electricity to deal with the impending demand. States like California are banning sale of gasoline powered autos in the years ahead. If we ban gas as a heating and cooking fuel and more states outlaw sale of internal combustion engines, the question has to be asked, “Where is the power coming from?”
Building a new power plant, start to finish, is a 10+ year process. Renewables certainly will help but even in the Sunshine State, we will need natural gas and coal for the foreseeable future.
If we don’t build new capacity to keep up with demand for electricity, eventually we Floridians will be worried about our air conditioning!
For the record, California already is having electric blackout outs on hot summer days.
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Some of y’all are clueless
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Georgia is building 2 nuclear reactors. They are way behind schedule and way over budget but progressing.
Here in Connecticut, our remaining nuclear reactor was recently deemed clean energy and allowed a very long permit as well as other legalities to allow owner Old Dominion to build another nuclear plant on the same site (TBD).
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A couple of follow-up thoughts on the economy:
2) But most people don't feel the benefit of a stronger economy -- yet! Think about it: Two years ago, you could borrow for a home at 3.0 percent and car loans were virtually interest free. Most personal purpose loans were so cheap banks were almost giving them away. Today, mortgages are in the 6 percent to 8 percent rate. Car loans aint cheap and banks are tightening credit. The little guy doesn't feel the benefit because his salary hasn't kept pace -- and won't for a few years -- and his cost of borrowing is sky high. Note that the folks today have no idea what we boomers had to pay in the 1980s for credit.
This sounds like "trickle down" economics. Is that what you're describing?
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The little guy doesn't feel the benefit because his salary hasn't kept pace -- and won't for a few years -- and his cost of borrowing is sky high.
Actually, consumer confidence just hit a two-year high and real wages grew in 2023 (see chart in post #9). It's true there is typically a lag between better a better economy and when people perceive it, but it appears we are at that point now.
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Yahoo Finance is producing these quarterly
Yahoo Finance Chartbook: 33 charts tell the story of markets and the economy to start 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-january-2024-110149183.html?.tsrc=372
(https://images2.imgbox.com/71/a4/99TbBJzm_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/99TbBJzm)
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Actually, consumer confidence just hit a two-year high and real wages grew in 2023 (see chart in post #9). It's true there is typically a lag between better a better economy and when people perceive it, but it appears we are at that point now.
Possibly, but until interest rates decrease substantially, there will be continued consumer angst.
Brother MUFan, I'm surprised there's any nuclear plants even close to under construction. But your point is exactly my concern -- late and way over budget. I'm not sure who or what is backing either the Georgia or Connecticut projects, but would you invest either in a nuclear power plant or a company that wants to construct a nuclear power plant.
Oh, and after 65 years of nuclear power plants, we still haven't figured out an agreed-on, safe way to dispose of radioactive waste. Over the years, our country has spoken of a waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but nothing has been finalized. That's the challenge with nuclear, and any waste leakage is far more damaging than anything a hydrocarbon fueled plant could ever do! Just ask the folks in Northern Ukraine or Southeast Belarus. Or around Fukashima!
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From Yahoo Finance:
Investors looking for earnings this week to wave a magic, clarifying wand over the economic and markets picture may end up being disappointed.
Take UPS (UPS) and General Motors (GM) as two examples of earnings that muddy the economic portrait.
UPS CEO Carol Tomé characterized 2023 as a “difficult and disappointing year” as the package delivery giant forecast sales for 2024 that fell short of estimates. UPS also announced it’s cutting 12,000 workers this year.
On the flip side, consider GM.
“Consensus is growing that the US economy, the job market, and auto sales will continue to be resilient.” That’s how CEO Mary Barra kicked off the earnings call. It accompanies the automaker’s forecast for earnings per share this year of $8.50 to $9.50, compared with the $7.70 predicted by analysts.
Whirlpool shares tumbled after the appliance maker warned consumer spending was softening.
Visa shares traded at a record intraday high after the stock shook off concerns over January weather and investors heeded the commentary from CEO Ryan McInerney: “Consumer spending remained resilient.”
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Possibly, but until interest rates decrease substantially, there will be continued consumer angst.
Brother MUFan, I'm surprised there's any nuclear plants even close to under construction. But your point is exactly my concern -- late and way over budget. I'm not sure who or what is backing either the Georgia or Connecticut projects, but would you invest either in a nuclear power plant or a company that wants to construct a nuclear power plant.
Oh, and after 65 years of nuclear power plants, we still haven't figured out an agreed-on, safe way to dispose of radioactive waste. Over the years, our country has spoken of a waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but nothing has been finalized. That's the challenge with nuclear, and any waste leakage is far more damaging than anything a hydrocarbon fueled plant could ever do! Just ask the folks in Northern Ukraine or Southeast Belarus. Or around Fukashima!
The Southern Company (SO) owns Georgia Power, thus the largest share of the nuclear plants in Georgia. Their stock is doing just fine, about 12% off of all time high which was hit about 1.5 years ago.
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The Southern Company (SO) owns Georgia Power, thus the largest share of the nuclear plants in Georgia. Their stock is doing just fine, about 12% off of all time high which was hit about 1.5 years ago.
The first US nuclear reactor built from scratch in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia
https://apnews.com/article/georgia-power-nuclear-reactor-vogtle-9555e3f9169f2d58161056feaa81a425
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Fusion is the future, why are these dopes investing in fission?
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Fusion is always the future.
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Fusion is the future, why are these dopes investing in fission?
Something's got to keep the lights on for the next 40-50 years.
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Fusion is always the future.
Except for the ignition breakthrough a year ago, which makes its future more immediate and where all the VC money is going. Why would government invest in a 20 year window on out of date and environmentally problematic fission technology?
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Something's got to keep the lights on for the next 40-50 years.
Not according to the Biden administration
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a45324693/us-wants-working-fusion-reactor-by-2035/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=arb_ga_pop_md_dsa_prog_org_us_a45324693&gbraid=0AAAAADCyiSl1N0jD626BcO2-_E_dX2TwI&gclid=CjwKCAiA_OetBhAtEiwAPTeQZ63ys8N3OSITHbs31E3k6mkyZZk_dzmPgdmvxb5bWUKx3F1OkVt7EhoCmc8QAvD_BwE
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Fusion is always the future.
Plastics, young man.
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Not according to the Biden administration
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a45324693/us-wants-working-fusion-reactor-by-2035/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=arb_ga_pop_md_dsa_prog_org_us_a45324693&gbraid=0AAAAADCyiSl1N0jD626BcO2-_E_dX2TwI&gclid=CjwKCAiA_OetBhAtEiwAPTeQZ63ys8N3OSITHbs31E3k6mkyZZk_dzmPgdmvxb5bWUKx3F1OkVt7EhoCmc8QAvD_BwE
Scientific American says 2050s at the earliest, 2060s more realistic.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-the-future-of-fusion-energy/
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Scientific American says 2050s at the earliest, 2060s more realistic.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-the-future-of-fusion-energy/
Well if the topic is the economy, and the Secretary of Energy is doling out incentives with a goal to be commercial in ten years, why on god's green earth would for or non for profit entities be investing in old/soon to be obsolete, thin margin (that requires a 50 year payback), on top of 20 year capital intensive projects (to even get to startup) and have proven gigantic environmental liabilities? Did you invest in abacuses in the 1970s too?
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Not to be a tinfoil hat aficionado, but how many external factors do we think are truly at play preventing fusion? Assuming that the vast majority of funding/incentives would be from the public sector, I can see opposition from both the fossil fuel cabal, as mentioned above, and the green/renewable energy sector who would get railroaded if fusion ever became a thing? I'm far from a cynic, but I'm always wary when magic bullet technologies that could change the game get held up, even if there is a non-minor component that is actually technology/scientific delay related.
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Well if the topic is the economy, and the Secretary of Energy is doling out incentives with a goal to be commercial in ten years, why on god's green earth would for or non for profit entities be investing in old/soon to be obsolete, thin margin (that requires a 50 year payback), on top of 20 year capital intensive projects (to even get to startup) and have proven gigantic environmental liabilities? Did you invest in abacuses in the 1970s too?
You'd have to ask someone who's investing in those projects. Or just assume they're not as clever as you.
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You'd have to ask someone who's investing in those projects. Or just assume they're not as clever as you.
Are you from the Mike Madigan School of Business? Of course you know who pays the bill.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/17/the-us-is-spending-billions-to-keep-money-losing-nuclear-plants-open.html
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Are you from the Mike Madigan School of Business? Of course you know who pays the bill.
Thanks Brother Doc and Right On!
The basic question is, notwithstanding the Georgia experience, what's going to happen when Consolidated Edison proposes a large-scale fission or fusion reactor on the Hudson River north of New York City. It will take about 10 minutes for enough lawsuits to come out of the woodwork to require a need for a million more lawyers a year from law schools to handle the litigation. Same for Com-Ed on the Illinois or Rock Rivers outside Chicago.
Gosh, I should have gone to law school!
And then there's the regulatory oversight process. To give an idea of how that works, look at the 737 Max oversight. The delays in the 737-8 Max and the 737-10 Max are about to bankrupt Boeing as regulators get cold feet about approving anything. Multiply that by a factor of one million and you begin to see how a regulator is likely to react to a new nuclear power plant.
The point of this discussion is to say there's no quick fixes to bolstering domestic electricity production. Yet, we are going down a path that by 2040, there will be more demand than supply for electricity. If California and Northeast states are paving the way, we'll have 150 million or so more electric vehicles on the road than we have today.
Where's the power coming from?
If we're really going to do this, then we need to begin adjusting our capital allocation, economic growth and related assumptions to accommodate an exponential increase in electrical generating capacity. The terawatts we're going to need are off the charts!
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Not to be a tinfoil hat aficionado, but how many external factors do we think are truly at play preventing fusion? Assuming that the vast majority of funding/incentives would be from the public sector, I can see opposition from both the fossil fuel cabal, as mentioned above, and the green/renewable energy sector who would get railroaded if fusion ever became a thing? I'm far from a cynic, but I'm always wary when magic bullet technologies that could change the game get held up, even if there is a non-minor component that is actually technology/scientific delay related.
It's the manufacturing of the unit itself. My company provides superconducting wire to some of these international research projects. Superconductors are needed to cool and control the fusion reaction. MRI machines manufacturers are our largest customers. They are trying to make an MRI machine the size of a football stadium and also keep control of an explosion inside.
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Are you from the Mike Madigan School of Business? Of course you know who pays the bill.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/17/the-us-is-spending-billions-to-keep-money-losing-nuclear-plants-open.html
No idea what you're trying to get at here. That nuclear is a bad investment? Maybe! You'll have to bring that up with the dum-dums investing in nuclear, I guess.
Here's a partial list:
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
Doesn't change the fact that fusion - at least to the degree that it makes a dent in the country's energy needs - is several decades away. It'll do wonders for the lighting in your assisted-living facility.
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No idea what you're trying to get at here. That nuclear is a bad investment? Maybe! You'll have to bring that up with the dum-dums investing in nuclear, I guess.
Here's a partial list:
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
Doesn't change the fact that fusion - at least to the degree that it makes a dent in the country's energy needs - is several decades away. It'll do wonders for the lighting in your assisted-living facility.
Good ageism comeback.
It's pretty simple, why publicly (or privately) invest in an obsolete technology that will be operational at the same as the new transformational one for the economy? I won't touch the politics of it and I respect you for staying out of that here.
As to the countries who are investing in fission, it's because they don't want to be dependent on the Cleptocracies. They are also investing in fusion big time. The US doesn't need to do that and in fact, it detracts from the potential of fusion.
As to the barriers, it's now all engineering. The science has been solved. That screams USA.
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I dont disagree about the future of AI at all. I was more speaking to the similarity between the 2 in how they are used as buzzwords. The vast majority of transformative AI right now is not in "sexy" functions. Its taking care of the brutal slog work and other stuff behind the scenes. The stuff I'm talking about is people acting like they have some futuristic robot mind powering crazy app functions or other stuff.
For example, I know of a company that created app to combat fraud in the jewelry industry. Lots of talk in their marketing materials and social media about "AI powered" and "using artificial intelligence" to do XY and Z. In reality, its simple (and rather buggy) image matching done only if the fonts are exactly the same. And further, most matches actually have a manual human review as well. The only true "AI" is a chatbot the interfaces in the app. Ive seen plenty of other situations similar to this. Which is a far cry from where AI is gonna save tons of time, money, and human capital and create a ton of value in the near term.
Which is funny because blockchain should be a great thing for the jewelry industry. It is excellent at combating fraud.
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While I agree with most of your long post, there are a couple areas that I disagree with.
1. Who is advocating for taking away air conditioning in Florida?
2. Biden is old and moves like it - but you're nuts if you think he is senile - or just maybe watched too much Fox. He has passed numerous important bills despite constant opposition. The economy is humming. +He is dealing with an entire party that has gone insane (i.e. Rs saying no money for Israel or Ukraine without money for the border. Biden and Ds say yes to money for the border and Rs say we won't pass ANY border legislation). These are not sane people.
2. uhhhh he's clearly lost a step.
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Possibly, but until interest rates decrease substantially, there will be continued consumer angst.
Brother MUFan, I'm surprised there's any nuclear plants even close to under construction. But your point is exactly my concern -- late and way over budget. I'm not sure who or what is backing either the Georgia or Connecticut projects, but would you invest either in a nuclear power plant or a company that wants to construct a nuclear power plant.
Oh, and after 65 years of nuclear power plants, we still haven't figured out an agreed-on, safe way to dispose of radioactive waste. Over the years, our country has spoken of a waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but nothing has been finalized. That's the challenge with nuclear, and any waste leakage is far more damaging than anything a hydrocarbon fueled plant could ever do! Just ask the folks in Northern Ukraine or Southeast Belarus. Or around Fukashima!
These problems have been solved for decades, but as you've mentioned, we haven't built a new plant in the US since the 70s. The newer designs use the nuclear energy more completely and for longer.
Also, the amount of nuclear waste that has EVER been created can fit inside of a football field stacked 10 yards high.
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Good ageism comeback.
Huh. And here I was thinking it was a compliment to suggest you'd still be around in 2065.
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reinko
Part of my issue with the overall economy matches what you have seen in your career. There was a ton of free money thrown a lot of companies that probably were not responsible guardians of that money. There was a ton VC thrown around to anyone that a growth plan and I think it was reckless investing. I do not think we have seen the last of the reckless investing and bank involvement with these investments.
That said, I hope you are in a good place and hopefully took advantage of being in a hot sector. Since you are in this sector, do you think it wise VC investments or not?
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2. uhhhh he's clearly lost a step.
Uhhhh, you said he's senile. Sounds like you're walking that back.
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Possibly, but until interest rates decrease substantially, there will be continued consumer angst.
Brother MUFan, I'm surprised there are any nuclear plants even close to under construction. But your point is exactly my concern -- late and way over budget. I'm not sure who or what is backing either the Georgia or Connecticut projects, but would you invest either in a nuclear power plant or a company that wants to construct a nuclear power plant.
Oh, and after 65 years of nuclear power plants, we still haven't figured out an agreed-on, safe way to dispose of radioactive waste. Over the years, our country has spoken of a waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but nothing has been finalized. That's the challenge with nuclear, and any waste leakage is far more damaging than anything a hydrocarbon fueled plant could ever do! Just ask the folks in Northern Ukraine or Southeast Belarus. Or around Fukashima!
yo brother dog, i fully understand the angst surrounding nuclear energy. yes, there have been accidents and mishaps. but the amounts of pure clean energy developed utilizing little extra-curricular energy far out weighs the potential harm. i define extra-curricular energy as that needed to produce the energy itself. how much energy is used to manufacture wind and solar before it is actually able to be put to use. then, how much energy is produced relative to the amount needed to manufacture said energy production devices? my assumption is nuclear beats all the others hands down. short of the mining process needed to gather uranium and the building of the reactor, that's it. nuclear reactors are the gifts that can continue to give. imagine filling up your gas tank with 10 gallons of gas and driving just far enough to burn 1/2 gallon, then throwing out the remaining 9 1/2 gallons. that's what occurs with nuclear today short of recycling or using fast reactors
all that said, we are starting to use more technology to recycle nuclear waste. as a matter of fact, spent nuclear fuel still has 95% activity remaining. utilizing fast reactors, you can transmute waste nuclides from 10,000 year half-lives to 200 year half-lives thus reducing the toxicity and wring out more energy at the same time. the actual waste can also be detoxified further via other methods we shall leave to the chemists.
the technology is here and can be put to use if we really want to...follow the money however
disclaimer-i've been somewhat heavy on my investments into uranium and uranium associated companies for the past 15 years. cameco, BHP, dennison and UR-energy to be specific.
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Uhhhh, you said he's senile. Sounds like you're walking that back.
Uhhhh, I didn't say that. I said exactly what I said. That he has clearly lost a step.
If you can't admit that then you have not been paying enough attention.
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reinko
Part of my issue with the overall economy matches what you have seen in your career. There was a ton of free money thrown a lot of companies that probably were not responsible guardians of that money. There was a ton VC thrown around to anyone that a growth plan and I think it was reckless investing. I do not think we have seen the last of the reckless investing and bank involvement with these investments.
That said, I hope you are in a good place and hopefully took advantage of being in a hot sector. Since you are in this sector, do you think it wise VC investments or not?
Appreciate the follow up here, doing okay, switched sectors (ed tech -> B2B solutions around corporate philanthropy, employee giving/engagement), and in a more solid place now (ed tech was BOOMING when COVID money was being passed around from the federal govt, and state govts), now K-12 and colleges are tightening belts, so dont envy my colleagues but I got out when I saw my pipeline weirdly not growing after a couple quarters, but was still cashing pretty good checks.
Just coming from your run of mill sales rep point of view, VC's (as they should) are trying to drive the value of their portfolios up to sell them to another, bigger fund. For years it was all about YOY growth (specifically new ARR and logos) and EBITDA was pretty far down on the list...WELL, at least in my view now, a path to profitability is not just a just a nice to have, needs to be near the top. So investments in retaining and growing in customers is hot now (since bringing aboard a new customer is a lot more time consuming and expensive), offshoring marketing and engineering to India also big to bring down costs to help the bottom line.
I agree, many VC's will still make big bets, but ultimately, it will be up to the BOD/ownership/CEO of companies to take it, and at what terms (this is the kicker here, VC's LOVE to grab undervalued companies at a discount).
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yo brother dog, i fully understand the angst surrounding nuclear energy. yes, there have been accidents and mishaps. but the amounts of pure clean energy developed utilizing little extra-curricular energy far out weighs the potential harm. i define extra-curricular energy as that needed to produce the energy itself. how
Yo, Brother Rocket:
Maybe it's because I remember the hysteria surrounding Three Mile Island (almost no radiation leaks) and because I've seen the physical and emotional damage of Chernobyl first hand in Southeast Belarus, but I'm not sold. To dismiss having Cesium 36 and Strontium 90 in the soil for 10,000 years (their half life) is not something that should be done lightly. We were in Belarus for almost two weeks and I lost 20 pounds because I refused to eat most of what was put in front of me. You just didn't know where it came from!
I think my posts show I'm a pretty pragmatic person. I know we're going to need many terawatts of new electricity in the coming years. Economic growth in our country will depend on it. While I'd like to think we can get past the nuclear power risks, I doubt most of our fellow citizens in the United States share your view about nuclear energy.
If Chernobyl and TMI weren't enough, the relatively recent Fukashima meltdown is a stark reminder of the risks of nuclear power and radioactive waste.
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Yo, Brother Rocket:
Maybe it's because I remember the hysteria surrounding Three Mile Island (almost no radiation leaks) and because I've seen the physical and emotional damage of Chernobyl first hand in Southeast Belarus, but I'm not sold. To dismiss having Cesium 36 and Strontium 90 in the soil for 10,000 years (their half life) is not something that should be done lightly. We were in Belarus for almost two weeks and I lost 20 pounds because I refused to eat most of what was put in front of me. You just didn't know where it came from!
I think my posts show I'm a pretty pragmatic person. I know we're going to need many terawatts of new electricity in the coming years. Economic growth in our country will depend on it. While I'd like to think we can get past the nuclear power risks, I doubt most of our fellow citizens in the United States share your view about nuclear energy.
If Chernobyl and TMI weren't enough, the relatively recent Fukashima meltdown is a stark reminder of the risks of nuclear power and radioactive waste.
Wait until you hear how many people coal and oil have killed.
(https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/5-Bar-chart-%E2%80%93-What-is-the-safest-form-of-energy_1350.webp)
The real problem that Nuclear energy has is it is expensive. Build, maintain, and produce are incredibly expensive compared to everything else.
Safety isn't the problem... at all.
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Wait until you hear how many people coal and oil have killed.
(https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/5-Bar-chart-%E2%80%93-What-is-the-safest-form-of-energy_1350.webp)
The real problem that Nuclear energy has is it is expensive. Build, maintain, and produce are incredibly expensive compared to everything else.
Safety isn't the problem... at all.
I’m Team Coal. Get those mines up and running
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I’m Team Coal. Get those mines up and running
Thanks for your service, Sen. Manchin.
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Wait until you hear how many people coal and oil have killed.
(https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/5-Bar-chart-%E2%80%93-What-is-the-safest-form-of-energy_1350.webp)
The real problem that Nuclear energy has is it is expensive. Build, maintain, and produce are incredibly expensive compared to everything else.
Safety isn't the problem... at all.
If we held companies/sectors legally and financially liable for the death/destruction they cause, fossil fuels would be prohibitively expensive
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If we held companies/sectors legally and financially liable for the death/destruction they cause, fossil fuels would be prohibitively expensive
Fossil fuels don’t kill, people with fossil fuels kill
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Yo, Brother Rocket:
Maybe it's because I remember the hysteria surrounding Three Mile Island (almost no radiation leaks) and because I've seen the physical and emotional damage of Chernobyl first hand in Southeast Belarus, but I'm not sold. To dismiss having Cesium 36 and Strontium 90 in the soil for 10,000 years (their half life) is not something that should be done lightly. We were in Belarus for almost two weeks and I lost 20 pounds because I refused to eat most of what was put in front of me. You just didn't know where it came from!
I think my posts show I'm a pretty pragmatic person. I know we're going to need many terawatts of new electricity in the coming years. Economic growth in our country will depend on it. While I'd like to think we can get past the nuclear power risks, I doubt most of our fellow citizens in the United States share your view about nuclear energy.
If Chernobyl and TMI weren't enough, the relatively recent Fukashima meltdown is a stark reminder of the risks of nuclear power and radioactive waste.
1. What was your starting weight?
2. I have... doubts.
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I have no idea why anyone would voluntarily go to Belarus for two weeks.
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I have no idea why anyone would voluntarily go to Belarus for two weeks.
His adopted child is from the area.
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I think my posts show I'm a pretty pragmatic person. I know we're going to need many terawatts of new electricity in the coming years. Economic growth in our country will depend on it. While I'd like to think we can get past the nuclear power risks, I doubt most of our fellow citizens in the United States share your view about nuclear energy.
Itshappening.gif
https://apnews.com/article/wind-energy-turbines-sunzia-transmission-93badc18769e50b28393e84dbf8ebf32
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His adopted child is from the area.
Thank you Brother Hards.
You are absolutely correct. My daughter is from Municipal Orphanage Number 3, Gomel, Belarus.
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Thank you Brother Hards.
You are absolutely correct. My daughter is from Municipal Orphanage Number 3, Gomel, Belarus.
Oh I completely forgot about that. Then you had a damn good reason to be in Belarus for two weeks! My apologies.
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Incidentally, thousands of Jewish folks visit Belarus each year.
During the pogroms under the direction of the Czar and his minions, millions of Russian Jews were concentrated in Minsk, Gomel and a couple other Belarusian cities. Belarus took an absolutely awful hit during World War II.
The country is a place of remembrance for a large part of the Jewish population.
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Yo, Brother Rocket:
Maybe it's because I remember the hysteria surrounding Three Mile Island (almost no radiation leaks) and because I've seen the physical and emotional damage of Chernobyl first hand in Southeast Belarus, but I'm not sold. To dismiss having Cesium 36 and Strontium 90 in the soil for 10,000 years (their half life) is not something that should be done lightly. We were in Belarus for almost two weeks and I lost 20 pounds because I refused to eat most of what was put in front of me. You just didn't know where it came from!
I think my posts show I'm a pretty pragmatic person. I know we're going to need many terawatts of new electricity in the coming years. Economic growth in our country will depend on it. While I'd like to think we can get past the nuclear power risks, I doubt most of our fellow citizens in the United States share your view about nuclear energy.
If Chernobyl and TMI weren't enough, the relatively recent Fukashima meltdown is a stark reminder of the risks of nuclear power and radioactive waste.
My wife was in high school in Poland when Chernobyl happened. She's 35 minutes from the Belarus border. Like a Hollywood movie, guys in communist army uniform barged into her classroom and demanded each student take these pills now (iodine). And we given more to take over a period of time. Gardens are a big deal to Polish people and no one was allowed to eat anything from their gardens that summer.
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Uhhhh, I didn't say that. I said exactly what I said. That he has clearly lost a step.
If you can't admit that then you have not been paying enough attention.
Uhhhh, that's what you said. We agree that he has lost a step. He's getting older, not doubt. But, you did say senile and it seems to me that you are retracting that statement. Good for you.
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Uhhhh, that's what you said. We agree that he has lost a step. He's getting older, not doubt. But, you did say senile and it seems to me that you are retracting that statement. Good for you.
Uhhhhhhhhh nope. Check your facts. I said no such thing.
I welcome your apology when you do.
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Uhhhhhhhhh nope. Check your facts. I said no such thing.
I welcome your apology when you do.
So you think he is senile?
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So you think he is senile?
Nope. Do you think he's sharp as a tack?
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The economy is roaring. So why do we keep hearing about layoffs?
https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-layoffs-why-keep-hearing-about-tech-media-job-cuts-2024-1
"Employees at the Los Angeles Times, eBay, Microsoft, and UPS are some of the workers impacted by recent layoff announcements in January.
However, despite recent layoff news about media, tech, and other prominent industries, the layoffs and discharges rate for the country has persistently stayed low, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nick Bunker, the economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, noted in recent commentary that recent layoff news doesn't indicate what the rest of the workforce is experiencing, similar to the spate of tech layoffs in early 2023.
"Both waves of tech layoffs appear to be mostly about rebalancing workforces to adjust to the current economic outlook after a burst of hiring in 2021," Bunker said. "That phenomenon is not happening in the broader labor market."
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https://www.npr.org/2024/01/25/1225957874/housing-unaffordable-for-record-half-all-u-s-renters-study-finds#:~:text=Live%20Sessions-,Housing%20is%20unaffordable%20for%20a%20record%20half%20of%20all%20U.S.,construction%20is%20mostly%20high%2Dend
It finds that in 2022, as rents spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, a record half of U.S. renters paid more than 30% of their income for rent and utilities. Nearly half of those people were severely cost-burdened, paying more than 50% of their income.
"We actually saw increases across every single income category that we look at, which sort of surprised us," says Whitney Airgood-Obrycki, a senior research associate with the center and the report's lead author.
Since 2019, the biggest jump in unaffordability was for households making $30,000 to $74,999 a year. Even among those working full time, a third of all renters were still cost-burdened.
As the Harvard report notes, U.S. homelessness rates hit a record high last year.
Since 2001, the Harvard report notes, median rents have risen by 21% while the median annual income for renters has risen just 2%.
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This is missing the cross reference of how ownership of said rental properties has become concentrated. Monopolization and then extorting rents because they can.
But on the flip side, it isn't like there are a whole lot of rental properties sitting empty or houses sitting empty. Except out in the country and in small towns too remote from the cultural hubs that are the cities.
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+350,00 jobs in January
#AINA
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From Seeking Alpha:
January U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: +353K vs. +170K expected and +333K prior (revised from +216K).
Job gains were the strongest in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance, the U.S. Department of Labor said on Friday.
Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.8% expected and 3.7% prior.
Yes, there are layoffs in some industries, but there is a pretty big labor shortage overall.
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Big layoffs always draw headlines. But the incremental increase in hiring happening everywhere else is more than making up for it.
I know there are a lot of people hoping and praying for the economy to tank, just like they are suddenly hoping and praying that the border crisis isn't fixed, but it's just not happening.
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Big layoffs always draw headlines. But the incremental increase in hiring happening everywhere else is more than making up for it.
I know there are a lot of people hoping and praying for the economy to tank, just like they are suddenly hoping and praying that the border crisis isn't fixed, but it's just not happening.
They're also hoping and praying for crime to swallow up the MU campus and major US cities. Does God not like them? He doesn't seem to listen.
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Big layoffs always draw headlines. But the incremental increase in hiring happening everywhere else is more than making up for it.
I know there are a lot of people hoping and praying for the economy to tank, just like they are suddenly hoping and praying that the border crisis isn't fixed, but it's just not happening.
What makes you think that?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna136649
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What makes you think that?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna136649
They say the quiet part out loud quite often these days. And the cult loves it.
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They say the quiet part out loud quite often these days. And the cult loves it.
Nah.
It's not a governing body anymore. It's team sports now.
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Nah.
It's not a governing body anymore. It's team sports now.
That is 100% correct. It's not about winning for the sake of policy. Its about winning for the sake of winning.
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WASHINGTON -- The nation’s employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades.
Friday’s government report showed that last month’s job gain — far above what economists had predicted — topped the December gain of 333,000, a figure that was itself revised sharply higher. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, just above a half-century low.
Wages rose unexpectedly fast in January, too. Average hourly pay climbed a sharp 0.6% from December, the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years, and 4.5% from January 2023.
The unemployment rate has now come in below 4% for two straight years, the longest such streak since the 1960s.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-jobs-report-january-show-steady-hiring-growth-106887552
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WASHINGTON -- The nation’s employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades.
Friday’s government report showed that last month’s job gain — far above what economists had predicted — topped the December gain of 333,000, a figure that was itself revised sharply higher. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, just above a half-century low.
Wages rose unexpectedly fast in January, too. Average hourly pay climbed a sharp 0.6% from December, the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years, and 4.5% from January 2023.
The unemployment rate has now come in below 4% for two straight years, the longest such streak since the 1960s.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-jobs-report-january-show-steady-hiring-growth-106887552
The DOW is at record highs,
The S&P is at record highs,
My 401k is 18.9% YoY,
Gas is in the mid $2.00s,
But keep telling me the ecomony is bad.
#AINA
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The DOW is at record highs,
The S&P is at record highs,
My 401k is 18.9% YoY,
Gas is in the mid $2.00s,
But keep telling me the ecomony is bad.
#AINA
The "economy" is not the stock market.
Only about half of the US is invested (can afford) stocks
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So what indices do you use to measure the health of an economy?
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So what indices do you use to measure the health of an economy?
Sir, this is a thread about feelings not numbers
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So what indices do you use to measure the health of an economy?
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
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The "economy" is not the stock market.
Only about half of the US is invested (can afford) stocks
More like 61%.
And while you're correct that the stock market alone isn't the economy and not everyone directly benefits from a strong market, nearly everyone indirectly benefits through job creation and wealth generation.
It's by no means everything, but it's really important.
I get your point... not everyone is thriving in this economy. That's true. But there's never been a time when everyone has thrived economically. I don't say that with indifference to those who are struggling, but to point out that the existence of struggling people does not mean the economy isn't humming.
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“Mea culpa,” Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said on the air Thursday. “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession, so was the entire forecasting fraternity.”
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Now we know why the Fed indicated that it wouldn't be cutting rates in March. The economy is just too strong to stimulate it at this point.
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More like 61%.
And while you're correct that the stock market alone isn't the economy and not everyone directly benefits from a strong market, nearly everyone indirectly benefits through job creation and wealth generation.
It's by no means everything, but it's really important. I
I get your point... not everyone is thriving in this economy. That's true. But there's never been a time when everyone has thrived economically. I don't say that with indifference to those who are struggling, but to point out that the existence of struggling people does not mean the economy isn't humming.
The top 10% owns almost 90% of all stocks. The top 1% owns 53%.
When we focus on stock market and investment growth, we're funneling money upwards.
Yes, we might create some jobs for the bottom 50%. But until those jobs provide meaningful ("living") wages, I'm not sure it's all that beneficial to focus so much on "stock market go up."
The alternative, of course, would be to provide a robust social safety net on the federal level.
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So what indices do you use to measure the health of an economy?
Likely the far majority that post here are thankfully stable enough to focus on the stock market situation as a reflection of their economic success.
I'd look at more stats/data that tell us how the bottom 25-50% of our nation are doing.
A rising tide lifts all boats.
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*Real GDP and Real GDP per capita
*Employment rate
*Retail sales
*Consumer confidence
*Inflation
Not an exhaustive list, but each of these are probably better at getting a snapshot of the entire economic picture than the stock market.
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I'd look at more stats/data that tell us how the bottom 25-50% of our nation are doing.
Which stats/data are those?
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The top 10% owns almost 90% of all stocks. The top 1% owns 53%.
When we focus on stock market and investment growth, we're funneling money upwards.
Yes, we might create some jobs for the bottom 50%. But until those jobs provide meaningful ("living") wages, I'm not sure it's all that beneficial to focus so much on "stock market go up."
The alternative, of course, would be to provide a robust social safety net on the federal level.
I'm not disagreeing with anything here. I'm disagreeing with the idea that the stock market isn't a measure of the overall economy.
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Which stats/data are those?
I like to view the median wages of those populations compared to inflation, productivity and purchasing power.
I also like to view the savings rates of those same populations.
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“Mea culpa,” Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said on the air Thursday. “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession, so was the entire forecasting fraternity.”
at least he had the character to acknowledge and apologize. most of your "experts" just ignore and move on to their next buffoonery
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at least he had the character to acknowledge and apologize. most of your "experts" just ignore and move on to their next buffoonery
Huh.
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at least he had the character to acknowledge and apologize. most of your "experts" just ignore and move on to their next buffoonery
Huh
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Here's a couple of economies that really suck: West Virginia and Mississippi.
Only Mississippi has a lower life expectancy at birth than West Virginia, and only Mississippi has a lower rate of participation in the labor force than West Virginia. WV has had the nation’s lowest population growth since 1950 and is the only state that lost population from 2000 to 2022. It is tied for last with Mississippi in the share of adults with a bachelor’s degree or more.
And then there's this: West Virginia is by far the U.S. leader in age-adjusted death rate from drug overdoses. In 2021, its rate of 90.9 per 100,000 people was 60% higher than Tennessee's, the next highest, and nearly three times the national average, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
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at least he had the character to acknowledge and apologize. most of your "experts" just ignore and move on to their next buffoonery
huh
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huh
i lol'd
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From the AP:
Wages rose unexpectedly fast in January, too. Average hourly pay climbed a sharp 0.6% from December, the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years, and 4.5% from January 2023.
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Rising wages, inflation falling, anybody who wants a job can have one.
Yeah, if I was Powell I wouldn't lower the Fed Funds Rate in March either.
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Rising wages, inflation falling, anybody who wants a job can have one.
Yeah, if I was Powell I wouldn't lower the Fed Funds Rate in March either.
And tax cuts coming
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And tax cuts coming
Tax cuts?
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Tax cuts?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/house-passes-bipartisan-bill-to-enhance-child-tax-credit-revive-key-tax-breaks-for-businesses
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Consumer Confidence Hits Highest Level in 25 Months
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-130900736.html
"U.S. consumer confidence in the economy and its future outlook jumped in January. On Jan 30, the Conference Board reported that the index of the U.S. consumer confidence for January came in at 114.8, marginally below the consensus estimate of 115. However, the metric was well above the upwardly revised 108 for December.
The index for January was the highest since December 2021, marking the third straight monthly increase."
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“Mea culpa,” Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said on the air Thursday. “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession, so was the entire forecasting fraternity.”
"Kudlow on Fox Business: "We had a blowout jobs report ... I know many of my conservative friends are trying to drill holes in this report. But you know what, folks? It is what it is. It's a very strong report. Not every economic stat should be viewed through a political lens."
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"Kudlow on Fox Business: "We had a blowout jobs report ... I know many of my conservative friends are trying to drill holes in this report. But you know what, folks? It is what it is. It's a very strong report. Not every economic stat should be viewed through a political lens."
WHAT????
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From Yahoo Finance:
Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, noted that this “popular bearish talking point” of a US consumer on its last legs is simply not borne out in the data.
“[Consumers] have drawn down all their excess savings, and, as a result, they no longer have a cushion of savings from which to spend,” Dutta wrote, summarizing the skeptical case against US consumers.
“I don't buy it. The excess saving story is one that has officially outlived its usefulness.”
“Consumption is being supported by ongoing gains in real incomes,” Dutta added. “With consumer price inflation slowing, and the labor markets solid, real incomes are rising. Since May, real incomes net of [excluding] transfers, a key recession determinant, are up roughly 3% at an annual rate.”
And though these figures come from a different data set, Friday’s jobs report showed wage gains continued to impress, rising 0.6% over the prior month in January and 4.5% over last year. And this while inflation continues to moderate.
No wonder consumer sentiment has been so good — and, this week, looking even better.
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The market is performing well AND there is still a lot of money sitting on the sidelines:
Washington, DC; February 1, 2024—Total money market fund assets increased by $41.68 billion to $6.00 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, January 31, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
This is a record for MM fund assets. When will it make its way into stocks? Maybe when people who are missing the economic expansion finally realize it and develop FOMO? Maybe when interest rates start falling and stocks are a better deal than a MM fund that yields very little? I don't know have the answers, but I can tell you there is a lot of investable assets out there ready to push this market higher. When / how / if that happens? Your guess is as good as mine.
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We are a decent size company with 2500 employees. We operate in a business to business environment. I am seeing lots of owners of smaller companies looking to sell, as it is just too tough for them to make the investments necessary to compete. We on the other hand love making operating investments. So more consolidation ahead.
We are paternalistic and don't believe in layoffs etc to make numbers. That is a personal philosophy of mine. We are also understaffed so every time we make a deal , there is opportunity for those in the acquired company.
We are still seeing the impact of inflation in every aspect of our business. I think it will take a number of years to work it's way out of the system. We can afford to hang on while the process takes place, while others won't. Generally speaking, we don't see this as a robust economy , however we are not seeing a recession any time soon either.
The Federal Reserve has generally done a good job with the tools it has to moderate the excesses in economy. It is never perfect of course. Will be interesting to see when they start cutting rates. Not thinking that will be any time soon.
We are in an election year, so appropriated funds typically tend to get released and spent. There is a tremendous labor shortage in this country , that will not be solved any time soon.
Stock Market is always looking ahead. So the runup in equities pretty much predicted a soft landing scenario which is what is happening. I had a lunch a while back with one of the leading bank CEO's who was explaining his lobbying efforts with the Feds in terms of no further rate increases. Seems like those efforts paid off.
Too many companies have been bought by Private Equity , Private Equity tends to make a lot of short term decisions that are not in the best interest of the business long term. They usually flip before the ramifications of those decisions are made. I see this Private Equity ownership is an unseen weak spot in the economy, but that weakness likely won't manifest itself, until such time as there is a credit crunch and some of these businesses go bankrupt. .
So my corporate strategy is to keep acquiring and keep investing in operations .
My Personal Investment strategy is to hold the quality dividend paying stocks I have collected. There are sectors of the market that didn't rally so there may be some opportunities to find some dividend payers at reasonable value.
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Could ya use a forward thinkin' dentist, hey?
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Herman,
I always like your take on the economy and appreciate your thoughts. That said, on the last post you made on the economy (I think the last) you noted that you felt the economy was in a very good place based off your company, customers, competitors, etc., and I am wondering what has changed since your last post?
Is the big change the cost of doing business, the lack of cheap financing or something bigger? Taking your company out of the equation a bit, are you seeing smaller companies that want to sell not making money or just tired and ready to move on?
For the first time our company is looking to build a small sales rep team for outbound sales and the number of qualified applicants that we have received has blown me away. We are not a big firm and not building a rep team to put us in position to raise crazy money and virtually every applicant has welcomed the sound of that concept. We have skilled people willing to work part-time (20+ hours a week) for commission only. With our sales cycle it likely would be 60+ before they can land a deal and they are signing up for the program. Granted, our value proposition has no capital outlay and instant ROI for our clients which makes our service an easier sell.
For the past 3+ years I have felt cheap money and crazy VC investments created a perfect storm and not a good one, imo. Those two drivers drove the economy but not based on what I believe are the principals of building a strong economy, mainly a company needs to be profit driven and not just revenue growth and getting VC money.
Again, I am interested in what you seen, if beyond what you noted, that has muted your take on the economy a bit. Ironically, while we had a rough 1.5 years our company is off to an excellent start to 2024, mainly based off it looks like SME's are trying extremely hard to shed costs. I am trying hard to learn from the last 1.5 years and your comments would be appreciated.
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The market is performing well AND there is still a lot of money sitting on the sidelines:
Washington, DC; February 1, 2024—Total money market fund assets increased by $41.68 billion to $6.00 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, January 31, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
This is a record for MM fund assets. When will it make its way into stocks? Maybe when people who are missing the economic expansion finally realize it and develop FOMO? Maybe when interest rates start falling and stocks are a better deal than a MM fund that yields very little? I don't know have the answers, but I can tell you there is a lot of investable assets out there ready to push this market higher. When / how / if that happens? Your guess is as good as mine.
MM's are yielding close to 5.25% virtually risk free, by far the most they've paid in years. For cash that you know that you are going to need in the next 6 months, that is a pretty good place to park the money.
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MM's are yielding close to 5.25% virtually risk free, by far the most they've paid in years. For cash that you know that you are going to need in the next 6 months, that is a pretty good place to park the money.
I did a lot of this last year. Feel like a geek buying CDs, but actually did put a couple hundred in em for a year.
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MM's are yielding close to 5.25% virtually risk free, by far the most they've paid in years. For cash that you know that you are going to need in the next 6 months, that is a pretty good place to park the money.
I totally agree and I am currently taking advantage of higher rates just like many of us are, but when rates start falling, as they are expected to later this year, where is that money gonna go? When that 5.25% drops to 2% (or lower) will you keep all of that cash in a MM? I doubt it.
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I totally agree and I am currently taking advantage of higher rates just like many of us are, but when rates start falling, as they are expected to later this year, where is that money gonna go? When that 5.25% drops to 2% (or lower) will you keep all of that cash in a MM? I doubt it.
It depends on what one's needs are, what the state of the stock market and economy are, etc.
For example, if somebody has a few million dollars and needs $100K in annual income for wants and needs, that person doesn't need to take market risk and might prefer inflation risk.
Or maybe the market is inviting - or at least some high-quality stock investments are inviting - and one is comfortable putting a good chunk of one's money into the market.
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We are a decent size company with 2500 employees. We operate in a business to business environment. I am seeing lots of owners of smaller companies looking to sell, as it is just too tough for them to make the investments necessary to compete. We on the other hand love making operating investments. So more consolidation ahead.
We are paternalistic and don't believe in layoffs etc to make numbers. That is a personal philosophy of mine. We are also understaffed so every time we make a deal , there is opportunity for those in the acquired company.
We are still seeing the impact of inflation in every aspect of our business. I think it will take a number of years to work it's way out of the system. We can afford to hang on while the process takes place, while others won't. Generally speaking, we don't see this as a robust economy , however we are not seeing a recession any time soon either.
The Federal Reserve has generally done a good job with the tools it has to moderate the excesses in economy. It is never perfect of course. Will be interesting to see when they start cutting rates. Not thinking that will be any time soon.
We are in an election year, so appropriated funds typically tend to get released and spent. There is a tremendous labor shortage in this country , that will not be solved any time soon.
Stock Market is always looking ahead. So the runup in equities pretty much predicted a soft landing scenario which is what is happening. I had a lunch a while back with one of the leading bank CEO's who was explaining his lobbying efforts with the Feds in terms of no further rate increases. Seems like those efforts paid off.
Too many companies have been bought by Private Equity , Private Equity tends to make a lot of short term decisions that are not in the best interest of the business long term. They usually flip before the ramifications of those decisions are made. I see this Private Equity ownership is an unseen weak spot in the economy, but that weakness likely won't manifest itself, until such time as there is a credit crunch and some of these businesses go bankrupt. .
So my corporate strategy is to keep acquiring and keep investing in operations .
My Personal Investment strategy is to hold the quality dividend paying stocks I have collected. There are sectors of the market that didn't rally so there may be some opportunities to find some dividend payers at reasonable value.
Brother Herm:
Excellent post. Like Brother Goose, I appreciate your perspectives. They're usually really good.
My firm is owned by private equity. We're in the ninth year of a seven year hold and while we're doing pretty well, the notion of a "liquidity event" for our equity sponsor has overhung everything we have done for the past six months. It can be disrupting at times and is hampering our growth because leadership is so focused on cost containment (to increase EBITDA), we're not thinking about long-term investment.
Private equity has its pros and cons. It brings investment to many companies that otherwise would be unable to grow. It's an alternative to public markets, which often can be unstable and may not be accessible at certain times of the economic cycle. But, as you note, it can be difficult at times to be owned by PE. Ask any journalist about Alden Global Capital, which owns the Chicago Tribune, Denver Post and St. Paul Pioneer Press, among other publications. Journalists hate Alden in no small measure because Alden is viciously cost-cutting.
While I admire your commitment to the companies and people you acquire, I'd quickly tell you that avoiding layoffs is an exception rather than a rule. Its company specific and predicated on how well the acquires business has been run in the years up to an acquisition.
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Yeah, PE that focuses on turnarounds of distressed businesses operate very differently than PE companies that are upleveling a company with growth capital. People remember/focus on the horrors of PE turnarounds instead of growth stories, but I think that's human nature.
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Yeah, PE that focuses on turnarounds of distressed businesses operate very differently than PE companies that are upleveling a company with growth capital. People remember/focus on the horrors of PE turnarounds instead of growth stories, but I think that's human nature.
Anecdotally, I also think the turnaround variety has been too large a proportion of PE activity over the past couple decades because money has been historically cheap. When you can go out and find loans for 1-2%, there just isn't much reason for healthy privately-held companies to hand their baby over to a PE firm. Add to that juiced valuations due to the hunger for alternative investments in a low interest rate environment, and you've got a recipe for PE firms overbidding on companies that don't have obvious high margin off ramps. Or they are bidding on companies that don't really belong in a PE environment when there is no "there" there (e.g. all the PE activity in journalism - they can be good little businesses, but not if you're looking for PE returns). Its another example of the downstream toxicity of too low interest rates.
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Yeah, PE that focuses on turnarounds of distressed businesses operate very differently than PE companies that are upleveling a company with growth capital. People remember/focus on the horrors of PE turnarounds instead of growth stories, but I think that's human nature.
Yep. I have a former customer who sold the majority stake (80%) in his family business to a PE firm for around $15MM about 5 years ago. I believe at the time they held like 70%. Everyone else was bought out and he retained the final 20%. The PE firm sold the company to another mega PE firm last year...for $80MM.
You're not wrong, but also many people just hear "PE" and lump it all together and remember the gnarly stripping of companies for parts.
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Yeah, PE that focuses on turnarounds of distressed businesses operate very differently than PE companies that are upleveling a company with growth capital. People remember/focus on the horrors of PE turnarounds instead of growth stories, but I think that's human nature.
Oftentimes family owned companies where just a couple of people remain engaged in the business, the rest are no longer satisfied with their dividends and want their payout and/or they just need some new ideas.
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Yep. I have a former customer who sold the majority stake (80%) in his family business to a PE firm for around $15MM about 5 years ago. I believe at the time they held like 70%. Everyone else was bought out and he retained the final 20%. The PE firm sold the company to another mega PE firm last year...for $80MM.
You're not wrong, but also many people just hear "PE" and lump it all together and remember the gnarly stripping of companies for parts.
Exactly. The asset strippers like Eddie Lampert, 3G, Alden, Sam Zell are a different breed.
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Oftentimes family owned companies where just a couple of people remain engaged in the business, the rest are no longer satisfied with their dividends and want their payout and/or they just need some new ideas.
I've seen this a LOT amongst friends/family in the self-owners of a dental/healthcare practice. Especially moving on to retirement, they value their practice super high because it's personal to them. The highest offers tend to come from PE. Then those practices get commercialized rather than selling for a bit less to a younger dentist/doctor.
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Huh, this is too much, aina?
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-tells-crowd-recently-met-234625101.html?
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Huh, this is too much, aina?
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-tells-crowd-recently-met-234625101.html?
Needed to inject random politics to match MU82? You both need to watch it.
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Needed to inject random politics to match MU82? You both need to watch it.
I've been guilty in the past, but my most recent post in the Israel thread that resulted in Officer Sultan pulling me over was relevant to the topic. And it was in a thread that has been pretty much only about politics.
Unlike this post by 4Qver in this thread, which is supposed to be about the economy.
But I accept your warning and will comply, rocky. Have a good one.
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I've been guilty in the past, but my most recent post in the Israel thread that resulted in Officer Sultan pulling me over was relevant to the topic.
Everyone knows what you are doing. You're not that clever.
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Anecdotally, I also think the turnaround variety has been too large a proportion of PE activity over the past couple decades because money has been historically cheap. When you can go out and find loans for 1-2%, there just isn't much reason for healthy privately-held companies to hand their baby over to a PE firm. Add to that juiced valuations due to the hunger for alternative investments in a low interest rate environment, and you've got a recipe for PE firms overbidding on companies that don't have obvious high margin off ramps. Or they are bidding on companies that don't really belong in a PE environment when there is no "there" there (e.g. all the PE activity in journalism - they can be good little businesses, but not if you're looking for PE returns). Its another example of the downstream toxicity of too low interest rates.
Brother Burrow:
A couple of thoughts:
A) I don't know of any P/E firms that were able to borrow on unsecured debt at 1 percent to 2 percent. About the only case where I've seen that is in extremely distressed situations where the lender is trying to get something back on an investment. I think Prime to Prime plus 2 percent with a personal guarantee is about as cheap as any commercial debt got.
B) Activity in Journalism is what I call "salvage" value or, in some cases, the PE firm acts as an undertaker. The thought is that the publications have parts that are greater than the sum of the whole. For example, the real estate, broadcast licenses, equipment, customer lists, trade name and even technology may be more valuable in a liquidation mode than as an ongoing, stand-alone business. Alternatively, the PE firm does what a former publisher is loathe to do -- right-size the cost structure to match the revenue generated by the business entity.
Airlines are sometimes like media outlets. The value of airplanes, gates, slots at restricted airports, trade names and customer lists is greater than the market capitalization of the airline.
For a lot of people in media (particularly reporters and editors), there's a huge disconnect between what a media outlet does and what it's perceived to do. What a media outlet's mission is to make a market-based, risk-adjusted return on investment for its ownership (be it a local family, media conglomerate or a PE firm). Most J-School grads, reporters and editors perceive that a media outlet is designed to report news and watch government. If the Publisher makes money, that's a nice after-thought.
With apologies to Professor John Vivian as well as most of the J-School professors when I was at Marquette, the world doesn't work that way!!!!
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https://youtu.be/z1h8I6A2dH4?si=yAOcYxNWZ-QDa77k
WaPo economics reporter tries to explain why the economy looks great, but might not feel great for everyone.
His recent article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/02/grocery-price-inflation-biden/
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https://youtu.be/z1h8I6A2dH4?si=yAOcYxNWZ-QDa77k
WaPo economics reporter tries to explain why the economy looks great, but might not feel great for everyone.
His recent article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/02/grocery-price-inflation-biden/
It will never, ever feel great for everyone.
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It will never, ever feel great for everyone.
True. Just providing context on different opinions. Especially when there's a clear class divide.
Also, those opinions will play a big role in November
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True. Just providing context on different opinions. Especially when there's a clear class divide.
Also, those opinions will play a big role in November
FYI, even though I challenge some of your posts, I tend to agree with what you say. I may be just a bit positive, though.
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As a very wise man once said "the poor you will always have with you."
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Interesting re: deficit management. Seems like that’s a major pain point for many fixated on our economic growth not being organic.
https://apnews.com/article/irs-tax-gap-audits-inflation-reduction-act-e0dcb9bc52cfcdd8fc40caa2c04e8011
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Glad we are building some law and order around our tax laws.
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Glad we are building some law and order around our tax laws.
About time the protected classes paid their fair share
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Glad we are building some law and order around our tax laws.
One would think that taking the position that "we want to make it easier for people to cheat on their taxes and get away with it while increasing the budget deficit" would be a non-starter, yet here we are.
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One would think that taking the position that "we want to make it easier for people to cheat on their taxes and get away with it while increasing the budget deficit" would be a non-starter, yet here we are.
Driven by the big donors who call the shots
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Driven by the big donors who call the shots
But it’s only one party’s donors.
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But it’s only one party’s donors.
That's rich.
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That's rich.
And mostly true. Dems support this which means their donors are OK. Don’t forget that Ds need money just as much as Rs do.
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And mostly true. Dems support this which means their donors are OK. Don’t forget that Ds need money just as much as Rs do.
Beginning with Clinton and exploding with Obama, the Dems have gobbled up all the dark/corporate/super pac money they can get their hands on
At this point it's probably 50/50 with most orgs donating to politicians on both sides
Either way, this country is a plutocracy/oligarchy/corporatocracy
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Just because I only warned MU82 & 4eva doesn't give the rest of you a free pass.
KNOCK. IT. OFF.
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Back to the economy. S&P 500 now at 5,000 +. By my calculation that's a 5.38% gain already this year and we're just in the first full week of Feb. I hope the market is not getting ahead of itself, but so far earnings seem to be supporting. I guess it's just a waiting game for now to see how things pan out, but for 2024 so far so good.
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Back to the economy. S&P 500 now at 5,000 +. By my calculation that's a 5.38% gain already this year and we're just in the first full week of Feb. I hope the market is not getting ahead of itself, but so far earnings seem to be supporting. I guess it's just a waiting game for now to see how things pan out, but for 2024 so far so good.
The stock market isn't the economy, but I do agree that, in general, the U.S. economy is solid.
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Huh, da ekonowmee iz dung, hey?
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From Seeking Alpha:
Maybe it was the prevalence of stock-trading apps combined with stimulus checks, but adults under 40 years old saw their wealth rise rise more than middle-aged or older adults since 2019, according to study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Economics.
For individuals 39 and younger, wealth surged by a whopping 80%. Contrast that with those 40-54, which saw wealth increase by 10% and those 55 and over, which logged in a 30% gain.
Financial assets contributed the most to the increase. For those under 40, the real value of their financial assets rose more than 50% between 2019 and 2023. The 40-54 group saw only a 3% rise, and the over-50 cohort experienced a 20% boost.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4065233-younger-adults-see-wealth-rise-the-most-since-the-pandemic-new-york-fed?mailingid=34314133&messageid=2900&serial=34314133.26783&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=34314133.26783
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This is intriguing.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-faster-growth-ozempic-glp-1-weight-loss-drugs-2024-2?amp
The more Americans that take Ozempic, the faster the US economy will grow, Goldman Sachs says
Matthew Fox Feb 23, 2024, 10:22 AM ET
* The US economy will see a surge in growth as more people start to take GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
* Goldman Sachs forecasted that US GDP would jump by 1% if 60 million Americans took a GLP-1 drug.
* "The main reason we see economic upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs," Goldman Sachs said.
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From the AP:
NEW YORK (AP) — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday.
The economy looks set to grow 2.2% this year after adjusting for inflation, according to the National Association for Business Economics. That’s up from the 1.3% that economists from universities, businesses and investment firms predicted in the association’s prior survey, which was conducted in November.
It’s the latest signal of strength for an economy that’s blasted through predictions of a recession.
https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-recession-forecasters-strength-ed49d9bfa9a26b6301065b990169d387?user_email=6647dfa7189f748384d7389910f7b584c6fcfc35ae990102964c7e826d4175c7&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=Morning%20Wire_26%20Feb_2024&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers
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Sorry, the economy blows. Lies, lies, and more lies, hey?
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Sorry, the economy blows. Lies, lies, and more lies, hey?
I know you desperately want it to be, but it is actually in really good shape.
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I know you desperately want it to be, but it is actually in really good shape.
His children need to have an intervention. He’s another one perilously close to being lost to a world of Fox News
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Not to mention, part of the reason the economy is in good shape is due to the Covid relief that Trump's administration quickly approved. But he never seems to campaign on that...or the vaccine...
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His children need to have an intervention. He’s another one perilously close to being lost to a world of Fox News
Close? This dope deeply believes that Obama is running the White House, vaccines are worse than a deadly virus, Russian disinformation is actually real, and apparently that objective data are "lies".
Just another broken old fool consumed by Kelly Anne's alternative facts.
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I know you desperately want it to be, but it is actually in really good shape.
Just spent $54.00 for half a tank. Its an election year, so let's watch it play out , aina?
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First of all, WTF are you driving?
Second, I never realized that the price of gas = the economy.
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First of all, WTF are you driving?
Second, I never realized that the price of gas = the economy.
Here's Econ 101...in spite of BO's push for a "green" environment, everything travels by gas or diesel fuel. Hence, prices keep rising and the little guy, who can least afford it, gets hurt the most. Aka, trickle down economics.
As for me, I choose to drive the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage. And, refuse to make any apologies for it, hey?
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Here's Econ 101...in spite of BO's push for a "green" environment, everything travels by gas or diesel fuel. Hence, prices keep rising and the little guy, who can least afford it, gets hurt the most. Aka, trickle down economics.
As for me, I choose to drive the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage. And, refuse to make any apologies for it, hey?
Then quit complaining about gas prices
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Here's Econ 101...in spite of BO's push for a "green" environment, everything travels by gas or diesel fuel. Hence, prices keep rising and the little guy, who can least afford it, gets hurt the most. Aka, trickle down economics.
As for me, I choose to drive the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage. And, refuse to make any apologies for it, hey?
LOL. The United States is producing oil at a record level, and produces more than any other country in the world. So I am not sure what the "green environment" has anything to do with this. Demand for oil is high..because the economy is humming.
And I truly do not care what you drive. You could drive a tank as far as I'm concerned.
But complaining about gas prices, while also bragging about driving "the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage," is hilarious.
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You axed, I answered. BTW, no brag, just fact, hey?
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LOL. The United States is producing oil at a record level, and produces more than any other country in the world. So I am not sure what the "green environment" has anything to do with this. Demand for oil is high..because the economy is humming.
And I truly do not care what you drive. You could drive a tank as far as I'm concerned.
But complaining about gas prices, while also bragging about driving "the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage," is hilarious.
Family really does need to do an intervention for him.
Probably need a Marquette losing streak to make him happy
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You axed, I answered. BTW, no brag, just fact, hey?
Why would I think that driving a big, gas guzzling car would be a brag?
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Family really does need to do an intervention for him.
To be honest, they probably are tired of him too.
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'Cause dat's watt ewe sed, 4 minutes ago, aina?
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Ad hominem attacks are so yesterday, hey?
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Ad hominem attacks are so yesterday, hey?
Kinda like being pro-vaccine, hey?
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Yeah, pretty much for children and those without comorbidities. Currently know of an individual, in the hospital, with covid. Unfortunately, in his case, he underwent a kidney transplant 3 years ago and is on immunotherapy drugs. But, despite getting the vaccine and every booster for himself and immediate family members, got covid from his daughter. Been a rough go, but he's making progress and likely to be released soon, hey?
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Just spent $54.00 for half a tank. Its an election year, so let's watch it play out , aina?
Stupid unnatural carnal knowledge has a 35-gallon tank and whines about gas being $3/gallon. LOL
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LOL. The United States is producing oil at a record level, and produces more than any other country in the world. So I am not sure what the "green environment" has anything to do with this. Demand for oil is high..because the economy is humming.
And I truly do not care what you drive. You could drive a tank as far as I'm concerned.
But complaining about gas prices, while also bragging about driving "the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage," is hilarious.
No vaccine for brainrot
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Here's Econ 101...in spite of BO's push for a "green" environment, everything travels by gas or diesel fuel. Hence, prices keep rising and the little guy, who can least afford it, gets hurt the most. Aka, trickle down economics.
As for me, I choose to drive the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage. And, refuse to make any apologies for it, hey?
You got a long ways to go before you are ready for Econ 101.
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You got a long ways to go before you are ready for Econ 101.
Yeah...he thinks that's what trickle down economics is. smh
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His children need to have an intervention. He’s another one perilously close to being lost to a world of Fox News
Well, we unfortunately see where your cnn,msnbc, cbs, nbc, abc nytimes gack has got us…your weekend at Bernie’s hero has put us in a perpetual swirly. At least fox called that one a bad idea before it started. You smart guys have helped to “fundamentally” completely F’ this country up in 3 years
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Well, we unfortunately see where your cnn,msnbc, cbs, nbc, abc nytimes gack has got us…your weekend at Bernie’s hero has put us in a perpetual swirly. At least fox called that one a bad idea before it started. You smart guys have helped to “fundamentally” completely F’ this country up in 3 years
8.5 out of 10
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Remember when Lenny claimed I was lying about Fox screaming that the economy was one step from catastrophic collapse?
Here's roqqet to tell you all about it...
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8.5 out of 10
Who knew that a side effect of horse paste was to cause you to put quote marks around random words?
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Who knew that a side effect of horse paste was to cause you to put quote marks around random words?
The full study will be out any day now
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Stupid unnatural carnal knowledge has a 35-gallon tank and whines about gas being $3/gallon. LOL
Nah man, my cars need premium, hey?
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As for me, I choose to drive the biggest, gas guzzlin', mf'er dat fits inta my suburban garage. And, refuse to make any apologies for it, hey?
Hard to imagine what you could be compensating for.
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Remember when Lenny claimed I was lying about Fox screaming that the economy was one step from catastrophic collapse?
You were lying. Still lying. If not, please provide the link of Fox “screaming that the economy is/was one step away from catastrophic collapse”.
Over the years I’ve seen plenty of forecasters on CNBC, CNN business and Fox business predict gloom and doom. But I’ve never seen anyone representing any network say what you claim “Fox says”, let alone scream it. But you watch Fox more than anyone here, so if you’ve got something…
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Sure thing, honey, I'll get right on that for you, lol.
The day I made that post, I said that you could no doubt find a replay of Bartiromo's screechfest; you couldn't be bothered. But hey, feel free to turn on any Fox show any day of the week. Knock yourself out.
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You were lying. Still lying. If not, please provide the link of Fox “screaming that the economy is/was one step away from catastrophic collapse”.
Over the years I’ve seen plenty of forecasters on CNBC, CNN business and Fox business predict gloom and doom. But I’ve never seen anyone representing any network say what you claim “Fox says”, let alone scream it. But you watch Fox more than anyone here, so if you’ve got something…
"Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we're in a dangerous state," Harry Dent told Fox News Digital. "I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes."
"I'm the guy that's praying for a crash while everybody else is not. We need to get back down to normal, and we need to send a message to central banks," he continued. "This should be a lesson I don't think we'll ever revisit. I don't think we'll ever see a bubble for any of our lifetimes again."
Not an isolated occurrence. Fox has been rooting for an economic collapse ever since Biden was elected - well at least since their efforts to overthrow the American gov’t were unsuccessful.
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"Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we're in a dangerous state," Harry Dent told Fox News Digital. "I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes."
"I'm the guy that's praying for a crash while everybody else is not. We need to get back down to normal, and we need to send a message to central banks," he continued. "This should be a lesson I don't think we'll ever revisit. I don't think we'll ever see a bubble for any of our lifetimes again."
Not an isolated occurrence. Fox has been rooting for an economic collapse ever since Biden was elected - well at least since their efforts to overthrow the American gov’t were unsuccessful.
Really, Jockey?
Harry Dent is a market predictor, writes a financial newsletter. He’s been calling for a crash since at least 2009. When he (or anyone else) predicts a recession or a depression to any network that is NOT the network speaking. Just like it was NOT any of the networks speaking when Paul Krugman opined the same on their airwaves after Trumps election. Or do you think ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN were rooting for an economic collapse then?
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Remember when Lenny claimed I was lying about Fox screaming that the economy was one step from catastrophic collapse?
Here's roqqet to tell you all about it...
gee, you purported fox news haters seem to watch more than we do...but you don't seem to back pedal off your endorsement of ice cream face. flippant people trying to tackle very serious issues spells where the problems really are
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gee, you purported fox news haters seem to watch more than we do...but you don't seem to back pedal off your endorsement of ice cream face. flippant people trying to tackle very serious issues spells where the problems really are
This is the U.S. Economy thread, right? So let's see:
* GDP UP strongly, beating all forecasts
* Job Growth UP strongly, crushing all forecasts
* Real Wages UP strongly
* Corporate profits UP strongly
* Unemployment under 4% for two straight years
* Energy production UP to all-time records
* Stock prices UP to all-time records
* Inflation DOWN significantly
But according to dentists, the economy "blows" and is "fundamentally" unnatural carnal knowledgeed up.
I wonder where they could gotten those ideas?
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Yeah, but ice cream face and Hunter's laptop and all...
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https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/opinion/republican-economy-voters-bias-partisan-2024-rcna126194
"The polling data doesn’t show that Americans think the economy stinks so much as it shows that Republicans say it stinks.
It’s hard to know whether Republicans actually believe this. But it’s beyond doubt that partisanship plays a key role in what people tell pollsters about the economy.
A pair of economists who examined decades of polling data concluded, “While both Republicans and Democrats view the economy more favorably when their party controls the White House, the magnitude of this partisan bias is roughly two and a half times larger for Republicans than for Democrats.”
When you break poll results on the economy out by party identification, you see how eager Republicans are to say the economy is terrible. For instance, in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, a full 75% of Republicans said the economy is “getting worse,” an assertion that is false by almost every conceivable measure.
The conservative media and the associated echo chamber is relentless in its insistence that with a Democrat in the White House, America is a land of unending misery and despair. And with the country as polarized as it is, even Republicans who don’t spend their evenings watching Fox News will be loath to say anything that might reflect well on Joe Biden. Telling a pollster “The economy is terrible!” isn’t much different than saying the same thing on X or Truth Social, a handy way to give Biden the finger if you’re so inclined."
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Really, Jockey?
Harry Dent is a market predictor, writes a financial newsletter. He’s been calling for a crash since at least 2009. When he (or anyone else) predicts a recession or a depression to any network that is NOT the network speaking. Just like it was NOT any of the networks speaking when Paul Krugman opined the same on their airwaves after Trumps election. Or do you think ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN were rooting for an economic collapse then?
Exactly. Fox puts on people who will give voice to Fox’s opinions.
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Yeah, but ice cream face and Hunter's laptop and all...
Huh? Don't forget his cocaine in the WH too, aina?
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https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/opinion/republican-economy-voters-bias-partisan-2024-rcna126194
"The polling data doesn’t show that Americans think the economy stinks so much as it shows that Republicans say it stinks.
It’s hard to know whether Republicans actually believe this. But it’s beyond doubt that partisanship plays a key role in what people tell pollsters about the economy.
A pair of economists who examined decades of polling data concluded, “While both Republicans and Democrats view the economy more favorably when their party controls the White House, the magnitude of this partisan bias is roughly two and a half times larger for Republicans than for Democrats.”
When you break poll results on the economy out by party identification, you see how eager Republicans are to say the economy is terrible. For instance, in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, a full 75% of Republicans said the economy is “getting worse,” an assertion that is false by almost every conceivable measure.
The conservative media and the associated echo chamber is relentless in its insistence that with a Democrat in the White House, America is a land of unending misery and despair. And with the country as polarized as it is, even Republicans who don’t spend their evenings watching Fox News will be loath to say anything that might reflect well on Joe Biden. Telling a pollster “The economy is terrible!” isn’t much different than saying the same thing on X or Truth Social, a handy way to give Biden the finger if you’re so inclined."
MSNBC opinion piece. LOL.
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Have you guys seen the price of Waygu beef? Tell me the economy is fine.
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I hate to win this argument because it shows how fooked up this country really is, aina?
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Exactly. Fox puts on people who will give voice to Fox’s opinions.
Prophets of doom get time on every business channel. Roubini ((aka Dr Doom) is a regular on CNBC.
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MSNBC opinion piece. LOL.
The underlying study was done by a professor at Stanford. Here is the actual study if you want to refute the points it makes.
https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341&isFreemail=true&r=2203u
BTW, the study doesn't address WHY these disparities exist, just measures the fact that they do in fact exist.
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Have you guys seen the price of Waygu beef? Tell me the economy is fine.
I don’t know about Waygu beef, but I do know the cost of Coke, Diet Coke and Coke Zero is up about 70% in the last 3 years.
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I don’t know about Waygu beef, but I do know the cost of Coke, Diet Coke and Coke Zero is up about 70% in the last 3 years.
Don’t care. I only drink high end sparkling water and those prices are high. Thanks, Obama
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Why don't you buy that chit at Sam's Club, hey?
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Why don't you buy that chit at Sam's Club, hey?
I don’t want to be around poor people. I’m an evangelical Christian
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https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/nbc-news-poll-shows-gop-largest-ever-lead-economy-rcna117330
NBC polling shows Rs with a 21 point lead on the Ds on who voters trust to handle the economy - an all time record. Guess an awful lot of independents and democrats watch Fox.
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MSNBC opinion piece. LOL.
Polling data and research. But as noted, you are going to believe whatever you want to believe no matter what reality says.
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In truly good faith, I guess I just don't understand what about the current situation would provide evidence to someone that Democratic executives are de factor worse at handling the economy than Republican ones. Inflation numbers are the only thing, right? Not looking to fight about it, just honestly want to hear the data points that this economy is bad.
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I hate to win this argument because it shows how fooked up this country really is, aina?
No worries then since you are losing it very badly
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Washington Post: The economy is roaring. Immigration is a key reason.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/27/economy-immigration-border-biden/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3ce2ea7%2F65de15acec584f026c7eb6e8%2F5f8d147cae7e8a56e5b732a4%2F5%2F53%2F65de15acec584f026c7eb6e8
Immigration has propelled the U.S. job market further than just about anyone expected, helping cement the country’s economic rebound from the pandemic as the most robust in the world.
That momentum picked up aggressively over the past year. About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data. And even before that, by the middle of 2022, the foreign-born labor force had grown so fast that it closed the labor force gap created by the pandemic, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Immigrant workers also recovered much faster than native-born workers from the pandemic’s disruptions, and many saw some of the largest wage gains in industries eager to hire. Economists and labor experts say the surge in employment was ultimately key to solving unprecedented gaps in the economy that threatened the country’s ability to recover from prolonged shutdowns.
“Immigration has not slowed. It has just been absolutely astronomical,” said Pia Orrenius, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “And that’s been instrumental. You can’t grow like this with just the native workforce. It’s not possible.”
Yet immigration remains an intensely polarizing issue in American politics. Fresh survey data from Gallup showed Americans now cite immigration as the country’s top problem, surpassing inflation, the economy and issues with government. A record number of migrants have crossed the southern border since President Biden took office, with apprehensions topping 2 million for the second straight year in fiscal 2023, among the highest in U.S. history. Cities like New York, Chicago and Denver have struggled to keep up with busloads of immigrants sent from Texas who are overwhelming local shelters.
Washington is deadlocked on a solution to the crisis. Senate Republicans and a handful of Democrats voted down a sweeping $118 billion national security package that included changes to the nation’s asylum system and a way to effectively close the border to most migrants when crossings are particularly high. House Republican leadership called the legislation “dead on arrival,” which seemed all but guaranteed after former president Donald Trump came out strongly in opposition.
Opinion polls show that voters widely disapprove of Biden’s handling of the border, and Trump, who is closing in on the Republican nomination, is touting plans for aggressive deportation policies if he wins in November. Republicans have increasingly campaigned on the idea that immigrants have hurt the economy and taken Americans’ jobs. But the economic record largely shows the opposite.
There isn’t much data on how many of the new immigrants in recent years were documented versus undocumented. But estimates from the Pew Research Center last fall showed that undocumented immigrants made up 22 percent of the total foreign-born U.S. population in 2021. That’s down compared to previous decades: Between 2007 and 2021, the undocumented population fell by 14 percent, Pew found. Meanwhile, the legal immigrant population grew by 29 percent.
Whoever wins the election will take the helm of an economy that immigrant workers are supporting tremendously — and likely will keep powering for years to come.
Fresh estimates from the Congressional Budget Office this month said the U.S. labor force will have grown by 5.2 million people by 2033, thanks especially to net immigration. The economy is projected to grow by $7 trillion more over the next decade than it would have without new influxes of immigrants, according to the CBO.
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In truly good faith, I guess I just don't understand what about the current situation would provide evidence to someone that Democratic executives are de factor worse at handling the economy than Republican ones. Inflation numbers are the only thing, right? Not looking to fight about it, just honestly want to hear the data points that this economy is bad.
I think its a lag. Inflation outpaced wage growth for quite awhile, but has changed in the last six to eight months or so. But you may not experience ANY wage growth if you didn't change jobs.
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I don’t know about Waygu beef, but I do know the cost of Coke, Diet Coke and Coke Zero is up about 70% in the last 3 years.
Do ever wonder why?
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I think its a lag. Inflation outpaced wage growth for quite awhile, but has changed in the last six to eight months or so. But you may not experience ANY wage growth if you didn't change jobs.
The poll cited was from September, so very possibly.
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In truly good faith, I guess I just don't understand what about the current situation would provide evidence to someone that Democratic executives are de factor worse at handling the economy than Republican ones. Inflation numbers are the only thing, right? Not looking to fight about it, just honestly want to hear the data points that this economy is bad.
Not mathematically backed up by anything specific, but nostalgia/repetitive bias plays a role here in my opinion.
Even if wage growth starts pacing inflation, money out is generally more frequent in transactions than the money in.
When you see 20 transactions a week at 10% higher, vs your 10% higher paycheck once every two weeks, is it not more driven into your mind based on pure frequency?
That plus "My coke zero used to cost a nickel!" nostalgia, even if you're pulling in more money it is ingrained in your mind that it sure used to be less when someone else was in charge.
Again, nothing mathematical here besides trying to analyze how the memory and mind works. Identity politics aside.
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So Cal prices; Bread up to $7 a loaf, Coke last was 3.99 12 pack now $7.99, miks $2.99 to $4.69, Juilan Apple Pie went from $16.99 to $26 all in the last year and a half. But they're still adding potato chips to the bags of air so it's all good
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So Cal prices; Bread up to $7 a loaf, Coke last was 3.99 12 pack now $7.99, miks $2.99 to $4.69, Juilan Apple Pie went from $16.99 to $26 all in the last year and a half. But they're still adding potato chips to the bags of air so it's all good
Let me take a shot in the dark here…you’re against raising the federal and state minimum wages?
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I don’t want to be around poor people. I’m an evangelical Christian
Just spit out my Perrier
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So Cal prices; Bread up to $7 a loaf, Coke last was 3.99 12 pack now $7.99, miks $2.99 to $4.69, Juilan Apple Pie went from $16.99 to $26 all in the last year and a half. But they're still adding potato chips to the bags of air so it's all good
Perhaps you ought to take it up with the companies who make those things.
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https://apnews.com/article/wendys-surge-pricing-tanner-burger-dynamic-9417bc235bbcd13d82966d04a6ba42bd
Burger chain Wendy’s looking to test surge pricing at restaurants as early as next year
"Wendy’s is looking to test having the prices of its menu items fluctuate throughout the day based on demand, implementing a strategy that has already taken hold with ride-sharing companies and ticket sellers.
During a conference call earlier this month, Wendy’s CEO Kirk Tanner said that the Dublin, Ohio-based burger chain will start testing dynamic pricing, also known as surge pricing, as early as next year.
“Beginning as early as 2025, we will begin testing more enhanced features like dynamic pricing and daypart offerings, along with AI-enabled menu changes and suggestive selling,” he said. “As we continue to show the benefit of this technology in our company-operated restaurants, franchisee interest in digital menu boards should increase, further supporting sales and profit growth across the system.”
~~~
I am assuming lenny, wanderer, and dentists everywhere will blame Biden for this.
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So Cal prices; Bread up to $7 a loaf, Coke last was 3.99 12 pack now $7.99, miks $2.99 to $4.69, Juilan Apple Pie went from $16.99 to $26 all in the last year and a half. But they're still adding potato chips to the bags of air so it's all good
Again, I trust economic data and not your personal anecdotes.
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I don’t want to be around poor people. I’m an evangelical Christian
The board's assumption is you do all your shoppin' at Aldi's. So you're good, aina?
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The board's assumption is you do all your shoppin' at Aldi's. So you're good, aina?
I pay people to grocery shop for me. I can’t imagine being in a grocery store with common people.
Feel bad for the poors of this board that have to buy their own groceries but as an Evangelical Christian, the feeling passes quick
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Again, I trust economic data and not your personal anecdotes.
I mean, generally food prices are continuing to rise, perhaps slower than the last couple years, but mostly not coming down. Call it greedflation, call it printing money, call it whatever, but factually food costs more than it has.
Question for those smarter than me, is the stock market at all time highs at all because the dollar is highly inflated?
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I don’t want to be around poor people. I’m an evangelical Christian
Uncle Rick sure has grown on me. Funny stuff.
On inflation, a lot of companies figured out that - we can keep raising prices and the dummies keep buying our non-essential stuff anyway. When margins increase a lot it’s not traditional cost (input) and wage pressure that increases the prices, it’s just they can and they can make more money. Great for the stock market. Has nothing to do with politics or whose in charge.
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Uncle Rick sure has grown on me. Funny stuff.
On inflation, a lot of companies figured out that - we can keep raising prices and the dummies keep buying our non-essential stuff anyway. When margins increase a lot it’s not traditional cost (input) and wage pressure that increases the prices, it’s just they can and they can make more money. Great for the stock market. Has nothing to do with politics or whose in charge.
Yeah, he's like ass pimples. Just can never get comfortable with him, hey?
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I mean, generally food prices are continuing to rise, perhaps slower than the last couple years, but mostly not coming down. Call it greedflation, call it printing money, call it whatever, but factually food costs more than it has.
Question for those smarter than me, is the stock market at all time highs at all because the dollar is highly inflated?
It has always risen over time. It will continue to do so.
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It has always risen over time. It will continue to do so.
Because of inflation?
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Because of inflation?
That's part of it. But then inflation is always occurring at different rates. Since 1960, the inflation rate rose every year except 2009 (Bush's banking crisis).
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Because of inflation?
Inflation decreasing just means prices are rising at slower rates. Not that they are reversing - that's deflation and that's bad.
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Again, I trust economic data and not your personal anecdotes.
I should believe you and not my lyin' eyes Been a lot of suspicious data thrown out these last few years I'll trust what I am experiencing over "data"
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I should believe you and not my lyin' eyes Been a lot of suspicious data thrown out these last few years I'll trust what I am experiencing over "data"
LOL. All about your feelings and not reality. Says a lot about you actually.
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One thing for sure: Incredibly ugly gold sneakers are REALLY effen expensive.
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I am relaying my experiences that is the very definition of reality . I spent a career interpreting data and know how even good numbers can be manipulated so I don't let my "feelings' interfere with my search for truth. That's my only goal
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Inflation decreasing just means prices are rising at slower rates. Not that they are reversing - that's deflation and that's bad.
Is deflation always bad? Or just when it’s prolonged or goes too far? If prices start falling, of course, it can be a negative sign, but could it also signal a strengthening dollar?
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Is deflation always bad? Or just when it’s prolonged or goes too far? If prices start falling, of course, it can be a negative sign, but could it also signal a strengthening dollar?
Deflation can cause people to postpone spending because lower prices are coming which can cause the economy to lock up. The emotional decisions that people make becuase of the thing is worse than the actual thing.
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Is deflation always bad? Or just when it’s prolonged or goes too far? If prices start falling, of course, it can be a negative sign, but could it also signal a strengthening dollar?
Deflation is starting to be a thing in China. It is a sign of crashing demand.
Greedflation is a significant factor in overall inflation. Big business saw an opportunity to jack profits and took it. There is absolutely no reason for some of the things referenced earlier in the thread to be the retail price they are other than the corporations discovered customers would pay it and they can make increased profits off of every unit sold.
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Deflation is starting to be a thing in China. It is a sign of crashing demand.
Greedflation is a significant factor in overall inflation. Big business saw an opportunity to jack profits and took it. There is absolutely no reason for some of the things referenced earlier in the thread to be the retail price they are other than the corporations discovered customers would pay it and they can make increased profits off of every unit sold.
Do you think companies had to? If a handful of companies control the market, for example, and needed to raise profits and keep the engine running, wouldn’t it be smart to artificially inflate the dollar? Make it seem like the market is stronger? I realize this is only one part of the economy, but it is significant.
I understand the reports (well, I don’t understand them, they are filled with economic speak) say inflation is steadying, but is it really? And, do those reports matter if the dollar is already so highly inflated?
I’m not saying the economy isn’t seemingly cruising, but is it artificial…well, more artificial than normal?
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I’m not saying the economy isn’t seemingly cruising, but is it artificial…well, more artificial than normal?
We went off the gold standard a long time ago. So, normal is kinda artificial.
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So Cal prices; Bread up to $7 a loaf, Coke last was 3.99 12 pack now $7.99, miks $2.99 to $4.69, Juilan Apple Pie went from $16.99 to $26 all in the last year and a half. But they're still adding potato chips to the bags of air so it's all good
You can always eat cereal for dinner
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I am relaying my experiences that is the very definition of reality . I spent a career interpreting data and know how even good numbers can be manipulated so I don't let my "feelings' interfere with my search for truth. That's my only goal
Your posting history suggests that's incredibly doubtful.
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Economy softened in January. Sales, Production and Consumer were down, Employment neutral. Still sideways.
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
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We went off the gold standard a long time ago. So, normal is kinda artificial.
Funny you say that. That’s how I was taught by my late father in law, the idea that since the gold standard, our money is worthless, gold is the indicator of inflation, less dollars in the system equals more buying power, inflation is a control mechanism, end the FED, that kind of stuff. He used to send me stuff like the Cato Letter, Imprimus, writings by Rothbard, von Mises Institute stuff. I credit him for challenging me and for presenting things in a way that was non confrontational. We had some great conversations.
I don’t subscribe to it as a general belief, but sometimes some of the ideas creep into my thought process. It is difficult for me to ignore money supply as it relates to inflation, just as it is difficult to ignore the idea of greedflation and why besides pure corporate profiteering. It’s difficult not to consider that unless we reset, we are a runaway freight train to implosion (very Ayn Rand, I know, my father in law told me about her, too).
So many indicators point to a strong economy, could we be in a “if it seems too good to be true, it is” situation?
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Funny you say that. That’s how I was taught by my late father in law, the idea that since the gold standard, our money is worthless, gold is the indicator of inflation, less dollars in the system equals more buying power, inflation is a control mechanism, end the FED, that kind of stuff. He used to send me stuff like the Cato Letter, Imprimus, writings by Rothbard, von Mises Institute stuff. I credit him for challenging me and for presenting things in a way that was non confrontational. We had some great conversations.
I don’t subscribe to it as a general belief, but sometimes some of the ideas creep into my thought process. It is difficult for me to ignore money supply as it relates to inflation, just as it is difficult to ignore the idea of greedflation and why besides pure corporate profiteering. It’s difficult not to consider that unless we reset, we are a runaway freight train to implosion (very Ayn Rand, I know, my father in law told me about her, too).
So many indicators point to a strong economy, could we be in a “if it seems too good to be true, it is” situation?
An arbitrary reset is needed because - why? We're already in a significant reset where hot pandemic categories/durable goods are unwinding closer to pre-pandemic volumes. Money is flowing to services and categories that were depressed during that time. Rates have gone up dramatically without impact to the labor market since that market has been constrained. At some point the underlying growth needs to be felt across the economy - but right now its growing in aggregate and consumers are spending in aggregate. Hopefully that means the interest rate tightening cycle is over....
This has been a different than traditional end to an unatural boom-bust business cycle caused by a pandemic (and the response to the pandemic). I guess its not surprising that 'this time is different'.
This was an interesting journal article today -- Goldman also saw this coming as setup to 23/24. Will be curious how the next step evolves.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-contrarian-who-saw-the-soft-landing-coming-9a4f1b9f (https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-contrarian-who-saw-the-soft-landing-coming-9a4f1b9f)
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Economy softened in January. Sales, Production and Consumer were down, Employment neutral. Still sideways.
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
Bring on the rate cuts!
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From the Washington Post's "The Color of Money" newsletter:
A surge in the stock market has thrust more retirement investors into the millionaires club.
Data released Tuesday by Fidelity Investments found that the number of employees with 401(k) balances over $1 million rose 41 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Fidelity Investments, one of the largest administrators of workplace plans, said it had 422,000 401(k) millionaires at the end of 2023, a nearly 21 percent increase from the third quarter.
The number of IRA millionaires hit a record 391,562 in the fourth quarter, about 40 percent higher than a year earlier.
It’s been a rocky road for this group of investors. The number of IRA and 401(k) millionaires started to drop in 2022 because of market conditions.
The average age of the 401(k) millionaires is 59, but their wealth accumulation isn’t just a function of time — it also stems from good investing practices. The number of people in Fidelity’s millionaires club remains relatively small — 1.8 percent of 401(k) participants and 2.61 percent of IRA holders — but they demonstrate a lot of positive behaviors that other investors should follow, such as not panicking when there’s a market downturn.
“They’re a great example of people who have really stuck with it and taken a long-term approach to their retirement savings,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president for workplace thought leadership.
The median balance among the millionaires is $1.34 million.
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Bring on the rate cuts!
One would think soon. Let's see what happens in DC and then wait for the March CPI release. Powell wants the long-term deficit addressed.
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/
Median house prices 6x median income
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/
Median house prices 6x median income
Corporate takeover of housing market.
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Corporate takeover of housing market.
Eh. Mostly due to lack of new construction supply.
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Eh. Mostly due to lack of new construction supply.
Definitely. But in a tight market. corporate ownership of about 4% of single family homes in the US is huge.
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The good news is that China’s construction is about to implode even more. So construction goods will be cheaper, that is already happening. If we’d recruit and let some of their foreign construction workers in we could create some housing supply in the USA again. We won’t do either, of course. But at least hard input costs will go down. So lack of construction labor will still be a supply constraint. Probably larger margins and profits for housing corps as hard costs go down but lack of supply due to labor shortage, so they won’t have to lower prices. So buy housing sticks if your a that type of chasing investor. Higher profit set up.
Now that could also be bad news as China’s economy contracts. Second largest economy and not buying our debt could be an issue for our 10 year bond rates if we want them down. Could see inflation lower but more stubborn bond prices. And if China gets really bad, we may slow more than projected.
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The good news is that China’s construction is about to implode even more. So construction goods will be cheaper, that is already happening. If we’d recruit and let some of their foreign construction workers in we could create some housing supply in the USA again. We won’t do either, of course. But at least hard input costs will go down. So lack of construction labor will still be a supply constraint. Probably larger margins and profits for housing corps as hard costs go down but lack of supply due to labor shortage, so they won’t have to lower prices. So buy housing sticks if your a that type of chasing investor. Higher profit set up.
Now that could also be bad news as China’s economy contracts. Second largest economy and not buying our debt could be an issue for our 10 year bond rates if we want them down. Could see inflation lower but more stubborn bond prices. And if China gets really bad, we may slow more than projected.
China has bought less US debt over the last ten years, and that has been made up for by the UK and Ireland... as well as more domestic debt.
Either way, China in a recession is terrible news for the world. The economy is global and a downturn there will impact everyone.
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China has bought less US debt over the last ten years, and that has been made up for by the UK and Ireland... as well as more domestic debt.
Either way, China in a recession is terrible news for the world. The economy is global and a downturn there will impact everyone.
I saw it on my November customer visits in Asia. A customer in Malaysia told me Chinese companies comprised a large portion of their business and RFQs were down 80%. My sales to this customer are down by an equal % amount.
I also heard Chinese companies are selling hard and very inexpensive because they have extreme amounts of capacity right now.
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China is a very attractive place to buying from at the moment.
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From Seeking Alpha:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 0.4% M/M in January, matching the +0.4% expected and accelerating from +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%), the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.
The report also showed that consumer spending slowed in January, while personal income rose more than expected.
On a year-over-year basis, core PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 2.8%, also the same as economists had estimated, but cooled slightly from the 2.9% pace in December.
The numbers indicated little progress in the Federal Reserve's drive to push down inflation to its 2% goal. However, seasonality plays a factor in the January numbers.
"The Fed will look right through the turn-of-the-year seasonal influenced data & policy will remain on track for a June rate cut," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US via X. "We were not part of the crew that was forecasting a March cut with 6 cuts overall. Our forecast was always June with 4 cuts this year."
The PCE Price Index, which includes food and energy, increased 0.3% M/M, matching the consensus estimate, and rising from the 0.1% increase in December (revised from +0.2%).
+2.4% Y/Y vs. +2.4% expected and +2.6% prior.
Surprisingly, personal Income climbed 1.0% M/M, far more than the +0.4% expected and +0.3% in December, according to the BEA.
Consumer spending appeared to slow from an exceptionally strong December, with personal outlays rising 0.2% M/M, the same as the consensus, and less than the 0.7% increase in the previous month.
RSM's Brusuelas sees "sustained goods deflation" as the big story in the PCE numbers. Prices for goods declined 0.5% Y/Y, with durable goods dropping 2.4%.
Services prices increased 3.9% Y/Y, significantly cooler than the 5.1% rate in June and July.
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The price of conflict diamonds are out of control
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https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1763328569886052844?s=20
Covid relief was a great idea!
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https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1763328569886052844?s=20
Covid relief was a great idea!
Sure. But no one wants to work anymore
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Jes, would you rather our GDP numbers be lower? Our friend Sultan shares some good news about our robust economy and that's your best reply? C'mon now.
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Pretty sure he was joking.
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Your posting history suggests that's incredibly doubtful.
No doubt to a closed mind
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Jamie Dimon warned of an economic disaster that never came. The JPMorgan CEO is only one of a number of high-profile investors and economists who predicted a recession was coming. They were way off. They underestimated the impact of government stimulus and the resilience of consumers and businesses. And they were too skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to push inflation lower without sparking a recession.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Jamie Dimon warned of an economic disaster that never came. The JPMorgan CEO is only one of a number of high-profile investors and economists who predicted a recession was coming. They were way off. They underestimated the impact of government stimulus and the resilience of consumers and businesses. And they were too skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to push inflation lower without sparking a recession.
JPow said it was transitory. Never bet against JPow.
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Dimon is still very cautious BTW
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Dimon is still very cautious BTW
"Investing should be a permanent thing. Save, invest. Save, invest. Guessing at market tops, market bottoms – that is a complete loser's game. I've never seen anyone win at it. The smartest investor in the world, Warren Buffett, would say that is not the way to invest." - Jamie Dimon
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"Investing should be a permanent thing. Save, invest. Save, invest. Guessing at market tops, market bottoms – that is a complete loser's game. I've never seen anyone win at it. The smartest investor in the world, Warren Buffett, would say that is not the way to invest." - Jamie Dimon
Agree with every word of that.
Dimon is still very cautious BTW
Agree with that, too. Probably prudent to be cautious when a market has been hitting new tops and a few stocks (led by one factor - AI) have been running wild.
But the average investor, as Dimon said in the quote Ska posted, shouldn't worry about the ups and downs of the market. Folks should just invest in high-quality companies (or good low-cost funds that hold high-quality companies) all the time. Those who have done so over the last (insert # of choice) years have been happy they did.
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Dimon is still very cautious BTW
Eh, if we want the inside scoop of what Jamie really thinks we'll need to wait for MUFINY's report out of their next lunch.
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And the dentists weeped.
Wisconsin had record-high construction jobs in January
(and unemployment at 3.2%)
https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-had-record-high-construction-jobs-in-january
"Economists, the state builders association and construction unions said the industry’s job growth could be tied to several factors. They cited Wisconsin’s unseasonably warm winter, stabilizing interest rates, a national construction boom and federal investments in the state’s infrastructure.
In January, construction spending nationally totaled $2.1 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Associated General Contractors of America. That’s down 0.2 percent from the previous month but 11.7 percent higher than in the same month of 2023.
“There’s a big boom in the building of commercial (properties). Not commercial as in stores, but factories,” he said. “I don’t know how much of that is in Wisconsin, but nationwide, that’s a very big factor. There’s a lot of construction going on.”
Anthony Anastasi, business agent for the Iron Workers Local 383 union based in Madison, said federal investments like the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law have also factored into the increase in state construction jobs.
Beyond the construction industry, the state also had a record 3.05 million Wisconsinites employed in January, while the state’s unemployment rate remained near record lows at 3.2 percent, according to the DWD."
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On da brite syde, gas went down a nickel inn my hood, hey?
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Yeah, it would be nice if that Whiting refinery got back up to full speed and started pumping out the summer blend.
Taking 400k barrels a day out of the system for 6 weeks certainly does not help prices.
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Check out this article from USA TODAY:, hey?
Inflation data from CPI report shows sharper price gains: What it means for Fed rate cuts.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/12/cpi-report-march-2024-inflation-data/72934243007/
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Yes, notice the "sharper increase" at the end of this graph? Yes indeed.
You may need a microscope.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/9b/32/Oolyvuil_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/Oolyvuil)
Work to do, inflation appears to be sticky here with a roaring economy.
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Mopes gonna mope.
I have been seeing interesting lagging impacts from the higher inflationary environment in my industry in regards to materials coming through such as steel. Been hard to get a handle on.
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PBS story on the economy data vs day to day:
https://www.youtube.com/v/UoQYV9Ct4T0?si=wyujQg_RpNT9lGmP
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Work to do, inflation appears to be sticky here with a roaring economy.
Nah. Just wait. 3% inflation is great. In fact higher inflation than that is great for the government and megacorps, but the small people complain too much about it so they have to try to keep inflation low-ish.
3% and keep telling the small folks that rate cuts are coming "soon" is pretty darn good
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For those who prefer facts to feelings when it comes to inflation and other economic news ...
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fd1bg3npzqm%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65f0b920c107a-1710274848.7907.png&t=1710335255&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c76-4006a301f000&sig=33PceNc8if3181qh51ptVQ--~D)
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For those who prefer facts to feelings when it comes to inflation and other economic news ...
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fd1bg3npzqm%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65f0b920c107a-1710274848.7907.png&t=1710335255&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c76-4006a301f000&sig=33PceNc8if3181qh51ptVQ--~D)
Had a $1 Hamm's (16 ounce draft) last night with my $8 all you can eat chicken wings meal out.
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Had a $1 Hamm's (16 ounce draft) last night with my $8 all you can eat chicken wings meal out.
They still make Hamm's? Or did you get a can that has been in storage since 1991? The latter could account for the clearance price.
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They still make Hamm's? Or did you get a can that has been in storage since 1991? The latter could account for the clearance price.
On tap, baby!!!
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On tap, baby!!!
From the land of sky-blue waters!
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On da brite syde, gas went down a nickel inn my hood, hey?
Crazy here in Jersey: Last week some stations were as low as 2.97 for regular. This week back up to 3.19. Still around a dollar more than what it was in Jan/Feb 2021.
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For those who prefer facts to feelings when it comes to inflation and other economic news ...
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fd1bg3npzqm%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65f0b920c107a-1710274848.7907.png&t=1710335255&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c76-4006a301f000&sig=33PceNc8if3181qh51ptVQ--~D)
I am still paying 20% more for groceries than I did 3 years ago.
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Don't expect that to change. Deflation is awful.
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I am still paying 20% more for groceries than I did 3 years ago.
I think a lot of people don't understand how inflation works or is measured. It's wild
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Wage growth is rising faster than prices, but I think the issue is that people believe that wage growth is something that they have earned though their work, versus simply being an adjustment based on cost of living.
Furthermore, this growth sometimes only happens when someone changes jobs, which is often a hassle.
Not saying there isn't real issues with regards to inflation going on, but so much of it is wrapped up in emotions and feelings even if reality says something different.
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Wage growth is rising faster than prices, but I think the issue is that people believe that wage growth is something that they have earned though their work, versus simply being an adjustment based on cost of living.
Furthermore, this growth sometimes only happens when someone changes jobs, which is often a hassle.
Not saying there isn't real issues with regards to inflation going on, but so much of it is wrapped up in emotions and feelings even if reality says something different.
I’m paying 8% more on caviar than I was 6 months ago
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I’m paying 8% more on caviar than I was 6 months ago
Exactly.
Its like b*tching about the cost of gas even though you willingly bought a guzzler that needs premium fuel.
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Exactly.
Its like b*tching about the cost of gas even though you willingly bought a guzzler that needs premium fuel.
When I drive my Silverado 1500 to the country club, it’s BS how much I have to pay for gas.
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Wage growth is rising faster than prices, but I think the issue is that people believe that wage growth is something that they have earned though their work, versus simply being an adjustment based on cost of living.
Furthermore, this growth sometimes only happens when someone changes jobs, which is often a hassle.
Not saying there isn't real issues with regards to inflation going on, but so much of it is wrapped up in emotions and feelings even if reality says something different.
Inflation, though slowing, is still cumulative.
Groceries a few years ago at $100 are $125 now.
Great that wages are out pacing inflation now. But it would take years of that trend to make a meaningful difference in purchasing power.
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https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1767536571366990078?t=zM7nb8uH7UPTlbrJmnzUDw&s=19
Core goods have come down.
Core services (shelter, among others) has not.
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When I drive my Silverado 1500 to the country club, it’s BS how much I have to pay for gas.
Grant Park has a clubhouse? Hoo new, hey?
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Grant Park has a clubhouse? Hoo new, hey?
As an evangelical Christian, I would never be found dead in that part of town
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We'll check Al Capone's tomb for ya, hey?
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When I drive my Silverado 1500 to the country club, it’s BS how much I have to pay for gas.
Couldn’t get a 2500 Denali in the right color?
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From the Wall Street Journal's afternoon e-newsletter:
The once-hot housing market in Austin, Texas, is cooling down.
Home prices and apartment rents have fallen more than anywhere else in the U.S., according to the Freddie Mac House Price Index and listings website Apartment List, respectively. The city that was once the symbol of the pandemic housing boom now suffers from overbuilding as well as slowed job and population growth.
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Oh oh, more news to get dentists' teeth a-gnashing:
"economic analyst Steven Rattner reported today that according to The Economist, since the end of 2019 the American economy has grown about 8%, while the European Union has grown about 3%, Japan 1%, and Britain not at all. Rattner and economist Brendan Duke reported that entrepreneurship in the U.S. is booming, with 5.2 million “likely employer” business applications filed between January 2021 and December 2023, more than a 33% increase over those filed between 2017 and 2019.
Economists Justin Wolfers and Arin Dube noted that, as Wolfers wrote, “[f]or the first time in forever, real wage gains are going to those who need them most.” Wages have gone up for all but the top 20% of Americans, whose wages have fallen, reducing inequality."
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-18-2024?utm_source=substack&publication_id=20533&post_id=142748399&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=elvx&triedRedirect=true
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/josiecox/2024/03/18/biggest-us-companies-are-supercharging-economic-inequality/?sh=731dafae3976
The largest publicly traded corporations in the United States are dramatically exacerbating economic inequality by channeling a huge proportion of profit into wealthy shareholders’ coffers and offering executives salaries that, in some cases, are more than a thousand times greater than an average worker’s pay, according to new research.
A report compiled by Oxfam and based on publicly disclosed data, found that across the largest 200 publicly traded companies in the U.S, some 90% of profit generated—equivalent to about $1.1 trillion—is paid to shareholders. Only ten of the 200 companies examined have publicly committed to paying a living wage, while four of the companies are run by a chief executive officer whose annual pay is more than 1,500 times the pay of an average worker at that corporation.
“The corporate culture of maximizing profits at all costs is clearly driving the inequality crisis by lining the pockets of the already wealthy at the expense of our people and planet,” said Irit Tamir, Senior Director of Oxfam America's Private Sector Department.
“Big business’ priority to make the rich richer fails to recognize the financial materiality and long-term economic risks of inequality,” she added. “Publicly disclosed data shows that the concentration of corporate wealth and power stifles both economic participation and the wellbeing of the people who make such extraordinary corporate profits possible.” :-\
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-17/nobel-prize-winning-economist-criticises-economics-profession/103582032
Economics is in 'disarray', having placed efficiency before ethics and human well-being, says Nobel laureate
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-17/nobel-prize-winning-economist-criticises-economics-profession/103582032
Economic theory has little to do with the economy. It's like climatologists vs the weather.
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From Yahoo Finance: GDP comes in hotter
The Commerce Department revised up economic growth for Q4 to 3.4% from 3.2% in its third reading of GDP out Thursday. It's yet another data point that reflects the perhaps unexpected economic robustness and resiliency we've seen of late, from the broad S&P 500's AI-but-also-earnings-driven record highs to the Fed's own improved estimation of economic strength.
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More word salads commin' outta DC. Sorry, da economy sucks ass, hey?
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More word salads commin' outta DC. Sorry, da economy sucks ass, hey?
So bad I've heard dentists are struggling to afford gas.
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More word salads commin' outta DC. Sorry, da economy sucks ass, hey?
If this were your demented cult leader's economy, he (and you) would be touting it as: People Are Saying This Is The Bigliest Economy In The History Of Bigly Economies.
Then he'd go out and grift some $60 bibles while he wears a MAGA hat during his patriot hostages' out-of-tune rendition of the national anthem.
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If this were your demented cult leader's economy, he (and you) would be touting it as: People Are Saying This Is The Bigliest Economy In The History Of Bigly Economies.
Then he'd go out and grift some $60 bibles while he wears a MAGA hat during his patriot hostages' out-of-tune rendition of the national anthem.
As an evangelical Christian, I bought a dozen of those
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More word salads commin' outta DC. Sorry, da economy sucks ass, hey?
Thanks, Maria. I'd also like to hear more on your take about how a freighter hitting a bridge is due to "open borders".
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1.4 jobs available for every American looking for work.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4086358-job-openings-holds-roughly-steady-in-february-jolts-report?
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1.4 jobs available for every American looking for work.
This is my fault. I work 0.625 of my job.
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https://popular.info/p/corporate-profit-bonanza
In the last three months of 2023, after-tax corporate profits reached an all-time high of $2.8 trillion.
According to an analysis from the Groundwork Collaborative, "corporate profits drove 53 percent of inflation during the second and third quarters of 2023 and more than one-third since the start of the pandemic." In the four decades prior to the pandemic, corporate profits contributed to just 11% of price increases.
It's possible for corporate profits to be used productively to fuel innovation and growth. But that doesn't appear to be happening. Economist Christian Weller notes that corporations are using their record profits "mainly to pay dividends to their shareholders and building up their stockpiles of cash."
Between December 2019 and December 2023, non-financial corporations used almost half of their pre-tax profits (48.9%) to pay dividends to investors. That is the highest share of corporate profits devoted to dividends since the 1950s. The same group of corporations now has $7.2 trillion in cash, up from $6.1 trillion in 2019, adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile, capital expenditures — which is a key way corporations invest in the future — are at historic lows relative to profits.
Also alluded to is the power or oligopolies and monopolies, which play large role as corporate consolidation is bad for consumers
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"The headlines from the March employment report were all good economically speaking. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours.
The key takeaway from the report is that it continued to support a solid earnings growth outlook even if it didn't necessarily support the outlook for the Fed to cut rates soon." -- Briefing.com
Or as defined by dentists, Disaster.
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The US economic recovery is absolutely crushing Europe, what a great run
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The US economic recovery is absolutely crushing Europe, what a great run
The COVID relief packages were massive. Caused some of the inflation we are dealing with, but absolutely spurred the recovery quicker and stronger.
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"The headlines from the March employment report were all good economically speaking. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours.
The key takeaway from the report is that it continued to support a solid earnings growth outlook even if it didn't necessarily support the outlook for the Fed to cut rates soon." -- Briefing.com
Or as defined by dentists, Disaster.
More horrible news for those rooting against the U.S. economy.
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Couldn’t get a 2500 Denali in the right color?
Manatee green is in short supply, due to the near extinction of these sea cows. Actual manatee skin is used for dye.
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The US economic recovery is absolutely crushing Europe, what a great run
Doesn't hurt that Europe can't get out of their own damn way
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https://popular.info/p/corporate-profit-bonanza
Also alluded to is the power or oligopolies and monopolies, which play large role as corporate consolidation is bad for consumers
jesmu84:
Dividends are a healthy event doe the economy. A very large percentage of the equity markets are owned by Public and Private Pension Funds as well as 401K and 403 B plans. Those Dividends help fund those retirees income streams .
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If this were your demented cult leader's economy, he (and you) would be touting it as: People Are Saying This Is The Bigliest Economy In The History Of Bigly Economies.
True. And you would be saying it was occurring in spite of him. I certainly don’t recall any praise from you or your minions for Trump re his pre Covid economy.
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True. And you would be saying it was occurring in spite of him. I certainly don’t recall any praise from you or your minions for Trump re his pre Covid economy.
I actually dont think that's true. I recall several posts from never trumpers on here who acknowledged how well the economy did under Trump pre COVID. I know i made a couple of them.
What i certainly don't recall is dozens of posts bashing Trumps pre COVID economy and saying it was terrible when it obviously wasn't.
Just because one side does it (on scoop) doesnt mean the other side did.
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True. And you would be saying it was occurring in spite of him. I certainly don’t recall any praise from you or your minions for Trump re his pre Covid economy.
What TAMU said.
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I actually dont think that's true. I recall several posts from never trumpers on here who acknowledged how well the economy did under Trump pre COVID. I know i made a couple of them.
What i certainly don't recall is dozens of posts bashing Trumps pre COVID economy and saying it was terrible when it obviously wasn't.
Just because one side does it (on scoop) doesnt mean the other side did.
Or claim that the data was falsified.
Anyway, I have claimed repeatedly that Trump's 2020 messaging was awful. He did a bunch of stuff that was actually GOOD early on in the response, but then never seemed to talk about it or claim it as his own.
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He yielded to the "experts" Fr. Fauci and his sidekick Burks. Pretty sure had Trump to do over, neither would have been the "face" of covid, nor would they have been trotted out each night to pontificate their covid expertise, aina?
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He yielded to the "experts" Fr. Fauci and his sidekick Burks. Pretty sure had Trump to do over, neither would have been the "face" of covid, nor would they have been trotted out each night to pontificate their covid expertise, aina?
Actually if he would have leaned more into their recommendations , he would be wrapping up his second term.
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What recommendations did he turn a deaf ear to, hey?
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What recommendations did he turn a deaf ear to, hey?
Many. Are you serious?
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Many. Are you serious?
Well, he didn’t spray Lysol up his ass
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Or claim that the data was falsified.
Anyway, I have claimed repeatedly that Trump's 2020 messaging was awful. He did a bunch of stuff that was actually GOOD early on in the response, but then never seemed to talk about it or claim it as his own.
He couldn't (and still can't) emphasize the success of Operation Warpspeed because his voters are against it.
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Hey Doc,
Back to my Mexican night out last night, I was there with very high net worth folks and aside from MU basketball the entire conversation was on the economy. I always like to listen and learn from people and it was great conversation.
During the night they mentioned multiple things that they have cut out if their life simply due to inflated costs. It ranged from big items like a new car, a milestone birthday trip to simple everyday purchases.
They simply said that they refuse to pay the inflated costs and would rather give the money to their kids. This is not the first time that I have heard this from other wealthy people.
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Hey Doc,
Back to my Mexican night out last night, I was there with very high net worth folks and aside from MU basketball the entire conversation was on the economy. I always like to listen and learn from people and it was great conversation.
During the night they mentioned multiple things that they have cut out if their life simply due to inflated costs. It ranged from big items like a new car, a milestone birthday trip to simple everyday purchases.
They simply said that they refuse to pay the inflated costs and would rather give the money to their kids. This is not the first time that I have heard this from other wealthy people.
Oh noes! Feel very bad for them. Must be tough to have to make choices like every other non-wealthy person has had to do forever. I hope the economy improves so they can go back to their previous carefree lives.
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They are probably taking their cues from Warren Buffett, who goes to a Sears in Moline, IL on a Friday night, hangs out at the checkout in the men's underwear section, and then makes proclamations on the state of the entire U.S. economy.
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Atl MU Warrior
Well, I am pretty sure that their previous carefree lifestyle was a help to the economy. Aside from them being business owners who have provided wages and benefits to 1000’s people over the past 50 years, they have shared their wealth to many places and have been outstanding supporters of the community.
I will pass on your thoughtful comments to them the next I am with them. My guess is it will be received with a hearty laugh. My only concern, I might be laughing too hard to get your thoughts out to them.
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Atl MU Warrior
Well, I am pretty sure that their previous carefree lifestyle was a help to the economy. Aside from them being business owners who have provided wages and benefits to 1000’s people over the past 50 years, they have shared their wealth to many places and have been outstanding supporters of the community.
I will pass on your thoughtful comments to them the next I am with them. My guess is it will be received with a hearty laugh. My only concern, I might be laughing too hard to get your thoughts out to them.
That would be great. Please let me know what they say.
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ATL Warrior
I think I would rather go on a cross country car ride with Fluff over continuing this conversation with you.
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They are probably taking their cues from Warren Buffett, who goes to a Sears in Moline, IL on a Friday night, hangs out at the checkout in the men's underwear section, and then makes proclamations on the state of the entire U.S. economy.
Hey, be nice to Moline! It doesn't have a lot going for it, so a Sears store may be world class entertainment.
By the way, Warren Buffet lives in Omaha. That's just past the western frontier of Iowa. Moline is just off the eastern frontier of Iowa in the Quad Cities of Illinois and Iowa.
I seriously doubt Warren Buffet drives 350 miles to buy underwear at a Sears in the Quad Cities, assuming there are any left. If there are, it's probably at SouthPark Mall.
Didn't you study Iowa geography where you come from?
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ATL Warrior
I think I would rather go on a cross country car ride with Fluff over continuing this conversation with you.
Don’t worry. You’ll never get the invite.
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The recent discussions, including those of my friend Brother Goose, as well as Brother MU and others who are just a bit to the left of center, are interesting. I share the view that the economy is improving and while I think we're still contending with the effects of inflation, the Federal Reserve deserves lots of credit for reopening the Paul Voelker playbook.
People feel they have less money largely because interest rates are still high, which affects larger purchases and real estate purchases. Energy costs, particularly gasoline, are still far higher than they were four years ago and that's taking a huge bite out of people's budgets. Add to that the increases in the cost of food, largely driven by fuel costs to produce and transport it as well as raw materials to produce it, and people's expectations are still restrained. They will be until real productivity increases.
Much of the recent debate in this room has centered on the economic impacts of Covid-19. I actually believe that social psychologists and economists will be studying Covid-19 for decades to try to better understand hysteria, political and economic reaction. We had a perfect storm in 2020, ranging from a media that had extensively reported on the 1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic and thought they new everything -- and were working to keep a story alive -- to lots of government officials who had an agenda and a polarized populous without a respected, objective source of information to which to turn. We had a President who much of the country believed was bats*it crazy and would do anything anyway necessary to chase him from office.
We talked about President Trump in this room as well. I firmly believe one incident cost him the 2020 election. It was about messaging and he blew it horribly. It was the night he came home from Walter Reed after being treated for Covid-19. If the President has faced the camera, with appropriate distancing, and told the American people that the disease was horrible and that he had compassion for those who've suffered with it, that he was grateful for the fine care he received and that he wanted the same care for every American and then ordered the government to redouble its efforts to conquer this horrible disease, he would have been re-elected. Instead, he was his usual narsacistic self, arrogant as always. I believe the American people saw that and said, "are you kidding me?"
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Hey, be nice to Moline! It doesn't have a lot going for it, so a Sears store may be world class entertainment.
By the way, Warren Buffet lives in Omaha. That's just past the western frontier of Iowa. Moline is just off the eastern frontier of Iowa in the Quad Cities of Illinois and Iowa.
I seriously doubt Warren Buffet drives 350 miles to buy underwear at a Sears in the Quad Cities, assuming there are any left. If there are, it's probably at SouthPark Mall.
Didn't you study Iowa geography where you come from?
I was in Moline last May. I will say this--it is infinitely nicer than Rock Island. Though, I stumbled upon a brewery in Rock Island, Radicle Effect, that was exceptional.
I didn't get to experience the rest of the Quad Cities, alas.
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I was in Moline last May. I will say this--it is infinitely nicer than Rock Island. Though, I stumbled upon a brewery in Rock Island, Radicle Effect, that was exceptional.
I didn't get to experience the rest of the Quad Cities, alas.
Hell is infinitely nicer than Rock Island, though the downtown entertainment district is fun, which is what you found.
Bettendorf, an Iowa Quad, used to bill itself as Iowa’s most exciting city! Iowa’s most exciting city was and is a bedroom suburb!
You didn’t miss much!
Full disclosure: I lived there a long time ago. A bad job elsewhere is still celebrated as liberation day!
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Fluff
For the record, I have never said the economy stinks. I do not believe it is crazy robust by any means, but never said it stinks. I think it is a difficult time for more people than most want to acknowledge, that is my point.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/us/politics/grocery-prices-pandemic-ftc.html
How bout that?
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Nothing tells me the Kroger Albertsons merger is a bad idea quite like that. Asset divesture isn’t really a good solution to it either.
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Nothing tells me the Kroger Albertsons merger is a bad idea quite like that. Asset divesture isn’t really a good solution to it either.
Kroger sucks
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For the record, I have never said the economy stinks. I do not believe it is crazy robust by any means, but never said it stinks. I think it is a difficult time for more people than most want to acknowledge, that is my point.
And for the record, I never said it wasn’t a difficult time for many, Goose.
Even in the best economy ever - and this is far from that - millions are struggling, living paycheck to paycheck or worse.
The economy is good. Not great. Not record-setting. But, by most metrics, good.
Jobs are available. Wages have been rising faster than inflation. Consumers are confident enough to spend. New businesses are opening. The stock market is near an all-time high. The most recent earnings season showed companies growing revenue and EPS.
And yes, many people are struggling. As is always the case in any economy.
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And for the record, I never said it wasn’t a difficult time for many, Goose.
Even in the best economy ever - and this is far from that - millions are struggling, living paycheck to paycheck or worse.
The economy is good. Not great. Not record-setting. But, by most metrics, good.
Jobs are available. Wages have been rising faster than inflation. Consumers are confident enough to spend. New businesses are opening. The stock market is near an all-time high. The most recent earnings season showed companies growing revenue and EPS.
And yes, many people are struggling. As is always the case in any economy.
What's the timeline for this statement?
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Kroger sucks
Worst tomatoes I’ve ever tasted
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From the NYT's DealBook newsletter ...
Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders has just been published. The widely read note offers a glimpse of his views on not just business, but the economy at a “pivotal moment for America and the free world,” with deep divisions at home and global uncertainty.
Here are some highlights.
The economy is resilient but the government underpinning it is a red flag. Consumers are spending and investors expect a soft landing. But Dimon warns that the economy is being fueled by government spending and rising deficits. “The deficits today are even larger and occurring in boom times — not as the result of a recession — and they have been supported by quantitative easing, which was never done before the great financial crisis,” he writes.
Inflation may be sticky. “These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates,” Dimon writes, adding that the odds are actually a lot lower.
Global uncertainty is another dark cloud. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could further “disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships.” That shock coincides with a surge in public investment to power a green transition, restructure supply chains and trade relationships, and boost health care spending.
Industrial policy is needed but should be limited and targeted. Dimon says the U.S. must be tough with China, but engage with Beijing. That includes establishing independence on supplies of materials crucial to national security, like rare earth, semiconductors and 5G infrastructure. (According to Dimon, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act get it right.)
Dimon warns about the deep political divisions at home. Dimon doesn’t explicitly weigh in on the election (his public backing for some of Donald Trump’s economic policies caused a stir at Davos in January), but said the U.S. is grappling with “highly charged, emotional and political” issues centering around the border security crisis and the “fraying of the American dream.”
On Basel 3 endgame: Dimon reiterated his concerns that many of the proposed banking rules are “flawed and poorly calibrated.”
On corporate governance: Dimon argues that proxy advisory firms like ISS have become too influential (he recently backed Disney in its fight against Nelson Peltz). He is opposed to recent efforts to split chairman and C.E.O. roles and thinks the universal proxy “makes it easier to put poorly qualified directors on a board.”
FWIW ...
I think Dimon is a very good CEO and I am a JPM shareholder. I share many of his concerns, though I also believe that many of them involve threats (or perceived threats) to his industry and company, and therefore might not be objective. Also notable is that Dimon has been sounding warnings about the economy for 2+ years, predicting recessions and possible economic catastrophe, and has been wrong so far.
Eventually, he and other recession forecasters will be right ... because history has shown us that there is always a "next recession." It comes and then it goes, and the economy stabilizes and the stock market rises, usually for several years. And then there is another "next recession," and so on.
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F Jamie Dimon.
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F Jamie Dimon.
He's always spoken highly of you!
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He's always spoken highly of you!
That's funny, he never speaks highly of anything
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He would fit right in here.
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He would fit right in here.
Is willie actually Jaimie Dimon?
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"Powell has his head up his ass"
---Dung Dimon
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Half of homeowners and renters struggle to afford their housing payments, a recent Redfin survey found.
Roughly 1 in 5 people who struggle to afford housing have skipped meals and/or worked extra hours to help cover costs, while about 1 in 6 have delayed medical care.
Skipping vacations was the most common sacrifice among white and Asian respondents, while Black respondents were most likely to work extra hours.
A surprisingly high share of millennials—most of whom are not retired—have dipped into retirement savings so they can afford housing.
https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuying-sacrifices-survey-2024/
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"Powell has his head up his ass"
---Dung Dimon
That literally made me laugh out loud. Thanks!
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A surprisingly high share of millennials—most of whom are not retired
Written by an AI genius, eh?
Seriously though. I've rented to a few millennials, and most of them have now purchased homes. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them used the "penalty free" $10k withdraw to help with the purchase.
In fact, I considered that eons ago. Didn't do it, but wasn't a terrible option at the time.
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F Jamie Dimon.
Agreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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I deal with LME copper prices everyday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/copper-climbs-to-2024-high-as-wall-street-banks-raise-price-forecasts.html
Copper prices climb to 2024 high as Citi calls the start of the metal’s second bull market this century
PUBLISHED WED, APR 10 20249:06 AM EDT
- Copper prices with May delivery traded at $4.323 per pound in New York as of Wednesday morning, extending gains after settling at its highest level since June 2022 in the previous session.
- Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6% higher at $9,477 per metric ton.
- Demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health.
Soaring copper prices show no signs of slowing down, analysts say, with the red metal’s rally fueled by supply risks and improving demand prospects for energy transition metals.
Copper prices with May delivery traded at $4.323 per pound in New York as of Wednesday morning, extending gains after settling at its highest level since June 2022 in the previous session.
Copper briefly hit a high of $4.334 in intraday trading on Tuesday, reflecting its highest level since the middle of January last year.
Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6% higher at $9,477 per metric ton.
Demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health. The base metal is critically important to the energy transition ecosystem and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.
Wall Street banks are bullish on the outlook for copper prices through to the end of the year.
Earlier this week, analysts at Citi said that they believe the second secular bull market of copper this century is now underway — roughly 20 years after the first such cycle.
Citi said on Monday that it expects copper prices to trend higher over the coming months, averaging $10,000 per metric ton by the end of the year and climbing to $12,000 in 2026, according to the bank’s base-case scenario.
“Explosive price upside is possible over the next 2-3 years too, if a strong cyclical recovery occurs at any time, with prices potentially rising more than 2/3rds to $15k/t+ in this, our bull case scenario,” analysts at Citi said in a research note.
“Our $12k/t base case assumes only a small uptick in cyclical demand growth over the course of 2025 and 2026,” they added.
‘Commodity markets always self-solve’
Separately, analysts at Bank of America have raised their 2024 price target for copper to $9,321, up from its previous forecast of $8,625.
The Wall Street bank said Monday that copper was at the “at the epicentre of the energy transition, which means that the lack of mine supply growth is being felt acutely.”
“Tight concentrates availability is increasingly capping production at China’s smelters and refiners, potentially pushing consumers of refined metal back into international markets,” analysts at Bank of America said in a research note.
“At the same time, demand in the US and Europe should bounce back as economies bottom out; this, along with rising demand from the energy transition, will likely move the copper market into deficit this year,” they added.
Not everyone’s convinced copper prices will hold onto projected gains this year.
“Commodity markets always self-solve,” Colin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday.
“They always find ways of softening things out. If we can’t solve from the supply side, well guess what, we’ll hurt demand and that’s what inflation naturally does. That’s why we had underperformance for much of the past year,” Hamilton said.
“So, if copper gets say to let’s say four times the aluminum price, you would tend to see a bit of switching and substitution. I see some very high copper price targets out there: we could reach them temporarily, but then you would see demand adjusting in key areas.”
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.
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Gas prices have been moving up, contributing significantly to inflation in recent months.
That's tough on everyday Americans, but thank goodness the CEOs of Chevron and ExxonMobil are making tens of millions of dollars.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4089117-exxon-ceos-2024-pay-bumped-up-3-to-369m-chevron-ceo-pay-rose-12
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Gas prices have been moving up, contributing significantly to inflation in recent months.
That's tough on everyday Americans, but thank goodness the CEOs of Chevron and ExxonMobil are making tens of millions of dollars.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4089117-exxon-ceos-2024-pay-bumped-up-3-to-369m-chevron-ceo-pay-rose-12
i know...same to those making snickers bars smaller and those packing fewer potato chips in larger bags too eyn'a?
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i know...same to those making snickers bars smaller and those packing fewer potato chips in larger bags too eyn'a?
Yep. Inflation, price gouging, and shrinkflation will continue until consumers rebel against it. Right now consumers are grumbling, but continuing to buy everything, so the trend continues.
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Yep. Inflation, price gouging, and shrinkflation will continue until consumers rebel against it. Right now consumers are grumbling, but continuing to buy everything, so the trend continues.
Isn't there a significant difference between organic inflation vs price gouging/shrinkflation?
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Isn't there a significant difference between organic inflation vs price gouging/shrinkflation?
This is still technically cost-push inflation where supply is limited. At the point that supply of homes/oil/etc is high enough, *some* competitor in the market will undercut prices to capture more market share.
There are headwinds, though, in that quite a few industries in the United States have gone through a couple of periods of consolidation through the financial crises that have impacted industry after industry since the pandemic. Black swan event, what are you gonna do?
Because of that consolidation in some industries the weaker competitors (who are most likely to cut prices to increase market share against the big boys) were snapped up. Additionally, debt is really expensive right now so it's not easy to grow a middling competitor in a given market and wait a few years until your cashflow eclipses your spend.
All inflation is organic is a minimally regulated market. Part of the organic Cost-push inflation is realizing that the broader consumer market is willing to pay more for goods because they don't have anywhere else to turn in a market with limited supply of goods. OR shrikflation where you solve the same problem by giving consumers less to recoup your years of tightened profit margins that way. Different solutions to the same problem. Everything costs more so now everything will cost more.
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This is still technically cost-push inflation where supply is limited. At the point that supply of homes/oil/etc is high enough, *some* competitor in the market will undercut prices to capture more market share.
There are headwinds, though, in that quite a few industries in the United States have gone through a couple of periods of consolidation through the financial crises that have impacted industry after industry since the pandemic. Black swan event, what are you gonna do?
Because of that consolidation in some industries the weaker competitors (who are most likely to cut prices to increase market share against the big boys) were snapped up. Additionally, debt is really expensive right now so it's not easy to grow a middling competitor in a given market and wait a few years until your cashflow eclipses your spend.
All inflation is organic is a minimally regulated market. Part of the organic Cost-push inflation is realizing that the broader consumer market is willing to pay more for goods because they don't have anywhere else to turn in a market with limited supply of goods. OR shrikflation where you solve the same problem by giving consumers less to recoup your years of tightened profit margins that way. Different solutions to the same problem. Everything costs more so now everything will cost more.
Thanks for the thorough explanation.
In my head, "organic" inflation seemed more "neutral" while price gouging or shrinkflation seemed more "evil."
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Thanks for the thorough explanation.
In my head, "organic" inflation seemed more "neutral" while price gouging or shrinkflation seemed more "evil."
Companies growing profits so that they can expand is their raison d'etre. We are stuck with this economic system, employing everyone on the planet so that they have enough money to buy goods and services, until humans invent a better system.
I feel like we really don't know much about how economies work yet. Economists are wrong all of the time about what will happen and what levers to pull. The only thing we really know about capitalism is that broad deflation is the ultimate evil and much be avoided at all costs. Inflation, whether it be fast or slow, is at least enriching some % of the people in the economy as well as 100% of the people holding debt.
The only time that deflation is somewhat desireable is during an economic revolution, where one set of goods is rapidly devalued due to technological innovation while that technology good/service takes the original good's place in the economy. Even that, though, takes 10+ years and absolutely crushes a good part of the people participating in the economy (take a look at how small towns are doing globally).
I'm no expert, though. Just an enthusiast that thinks he's smart.
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From the WSJ daily newsletter:
In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. Economists, in fact, think the economy won't even get close to a recession. It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/15/retail-sales-jumped-0point7percent-in-march-much-higher-than-expected.html
Rising inflation in March didn’t deter consumers, who continued shopping at a more rapid pace than anticipated, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Retail sales increased 0.7% for the month, considerably faster than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a 0.3% rise though below the upwardly revised 0.9% in February, according to Census Bureau data that is adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation.
The consumer price index increased 0.4% in March, the Labor Department reported last week in data that also was higher than the Wall Street outlook. That means consumers more than kept up with the pace of inflation, which ran at a 3.5% annual rate for the month, below the 4% retail sales increase.
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The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks international markets.
Strong household spending and investment will help propel US growth to 2.7 per cent this year according to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook.
The figure is higher than the 2.5 per cent estimated for 2023 and represents a 0.6 percentage point upgrade on the previous forecast.
https://www.ft.com/content/3b819571-662d-4185-9ca5-c7e682b55700
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Here is the best thing about the great economy:
Crime in Milwaukee dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2024, as violent crime dropped 8% from the same time last year, according to data Milwaukee police shared Tuesday. Homicides were down 39% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping from 38 last year to 23 for the same period this year. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, homicides are down 54%.
Similar stats in most other places. People tend to commit fewer crimes when they are working regularly.
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Here is the best thing about the great economy:
Crime in Milwaukee dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2024, as violent crime dropped 8% from the same time last year, according to data Milwaukee police shared Tuesday. Homicides were down 39% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping from 38 last year to 23 for the same period this year. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, homicides are down 54%.
Similar stats in most other places. People tend to commit fewer crimes when they are working regularly.
At this rate it may soon be safe for people like me to return downtown.
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At this rate it may soon be safe for people like me to return downtown.
You’ll get shot
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Here is the best thing about the great economy:
Crime in Milwaukee dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2024, as violent crime dropped 8% from the same time last year, according to data Milwaukee police shared Tuesday. Homicides were down 39% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping from 38 last year to 23 for the same period this year. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, homicides are down 54%.
Similar stats in most other places. People tend to commit fewer crimes when they are working regularly.
I would sure hope so! they're running out of victims and have to move out to the suburbs where people still have something to steal, more and newer kia's and hyundai's and the population is flourishing. but criminal at your own risk as those "rednecks" out west might be packing too, eyn'a?
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I would sure hope so! they're running out of victims and have to move out to the suburbs where people still have something to steal, more and newer kia's and hyundai's and the population is flourishing. but criminal at your own risk as those "rednecks" out west might be packing too, eyn'a?
8 out of 10
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April 23 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed confidence on Tuesday in a robust U.S. economy backed by strong employment and healthy consumer finances. The U.S. economic boom is "unbelievable," Dimon said in an interview at an Economic Club of New York event. "Even if we go into recession, the consumer's still in good shape."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-says-us-economy-is-booming-2024-04-23/
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More terrible news about the US economy.
When will it end?
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April 23 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed confidence on Tuesday in a robust U.S. economy backed by strong employment and healthy consumer finances. The U.S. economic boom is "unbelievable," Dimon said in an interview at an Economic Club of New York event. "Even if we go into recession, the consumer's still in good shape."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-says-us-economy-is-booming-2024-04-23/
He sounds more positive then 2 weeks ago.
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He sounds more positive then 2 weeks ago.
Obviously a real good CEO, but he's all over the place with his economic declarations.
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Obviously a real good CEO, but he's all over the place with his economic declarations.
He's a full time prognosticator. People only remember when you're right.
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From Journal-Sentinel email newsletter:
Manufacturing is coming back to Wisconsin
In April 2021, the U.S. International Trade Commission made a seminal ruling: A coalition of U.S. companies, including one from Wisconsin, had prevailed in their complaint that Chinese competitors were selling trailer chassis in the United States for below the actual cost of making them, a trade violation known as dumping, that unfairly harms competitors.
Soon, import tariffs of more than 200% would be levied on those Chinese trailers, which are used to haul ocean-cargo containers on American highways. Sales would swing back to the U.S. manufacturers, supporting thousands of jobs in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Alabama and Texas.
It was great news to Bob Wahlin of Stoughton Trailers, whose factory had been sitting mothballed between Janesville and Madison. And it's part of a larger trend.
In the nearly 45 years since industrial employment peaked in the United States, manufacturers have struggled to regain their prominence. Now, they have some wind at their back.
Then, later in the newsletter:
If you didn't know, soy sauce is made in Wisconsin. The company that produces it, Kikkoman Foods, is building a $560 million facility in Jefferson to expand its operations.
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larry ellison moving his oracle corporate headquarters from california to nashville...drip...drip...drip
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larry ellison moving his oracle corporate headquarters from california to nashville...drip...drip...drip
Now that Bryce Drew is out of Nashville, the city is less dirty
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larry ellison moving his oracle corporate headquarters from california to nashville...drip...drip...drip
Oracle's current headquarters are in Austin.
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Facts ain't gonna stop roQQet!
But yeah ... drip drip drip ... at this rate, eventually (maybe), California will be the "country" with only the 6th largest GNP in the world.
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Employment numbers are skewed as it’s the gubmint doing the hiring- 700,000 that make jobs picture rosy
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They’re always “skewed.” They were “skewed” from 1/20/17 until the start of the pandemic, too.
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Noncompetes basically unenforceable.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/23/1246655366/ftc-bans-noncompete-agreements-lina-khan (https://www.npr.org/2024/04/23/1246655366/ftc-bans-noncompete-agreements-lina-khan)
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Noncompetes basically unenforceable.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/23/1246655366/ftc-bans-noncompete-agreements-lina-khan (https://www.npr.org/2024/04/23/1246655366/ftc-bans-noncompete-agreements-lina-khan)
I believe I saw this was only for for-profit companies
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So, not Tesla or X?
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Obviously a real good CEO, but he's all over the place with his economic declarations.
Consider that he just throws stuff against a wall just to see what sticks.
And when he's right or it aligns with your predetermined beliefs you hear about it... otherwise it's forgotten.
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He's a full time prognosticator. People only remember when you're right.
HA bang on!
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Now that Bryce Drew is out of Nashville, the city is less dirty
As a former Nashvillian who lived there in an earlier time, I'm utterly stunned at what's happening there. The region is such a different place than anything I remember from my days there. Heck, Catholics are even welcome now!
Nashville is what Charlotte was about 20 years ago, during the first wave of banking consolidations. Oracle ostensibly is moving to Nashville for health care, which is rather myopic since there are tons of other industries in the world besides healthcare. Given their history of California >> Texas >> Tennessee, one can only wonder what's next?
The big question is whether Nashville's growth is sustainable? The state and Metro governments would argue, certainly! But the problem is Nashville's transportation lines were built for a city that doesn't exist anymore. Mass transit is non-existent and WeGo is as big a joke as its name. Nashville's infrastructure isn't built for the city it is becoming and it's going to take billions to correct that, just as it did (in today's dollars) in the 1960s and 1970s. There's also the environmental considerations (not that environment matters in Middle Tennessee) but there's only so many mountains you can blow the top off of for housing without having serious long-term effects.
Perhaps I'm myopic but I just don't see who is going to fill all those buildings in the Gulch.
Ultimately, someone is going to wake up one morning and look around and say, "My God, what have we done?"
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Ultimately, someone is going to wake up one morning and look around and say, "My God, what have we done?"
Probably David Byrne
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...same as it ever was...
...and the days go by...
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...same as it ever was...
...and the days go by...
Letting the days go by! :o
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Employment numbers are skewed as it’s the gubmint doing the hiring- 700,000 that make jobs picture rosy
and many of the new hires are illegals, doing the stuff that we don't wanna do I guess
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and many of the new hires are illegals, doing the stuff that we don't wanna do I guess
They’re dentists?
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As it has been for a long time.
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proposed capital gains tax to 44.5% would be an economy KILLER!!
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proposed capital gains tax to 44.5% would be an economy KILLER!!
Boy it sure would be awful if all of the Boomers had to pay their fair share and pay for the financial misery they've inflicted on younger generations.
Someone has to pay for all the tax breaks and deficit spending... I guess it'll just have to be the Democrats to balance the budget again.
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Boy it sure would be awful if all of the Boomers had to pay their fair share and pay for the financial misery they've inflicted on younger generations.
Someone has to pay for all the tax breaks and deficit spending... I guess it'll just have to be the Democrats to balance the budget again.
tax it and you get less of it-this would put weekends already amazing economy into even more amazing territory...maybe even rival that peanut farmer guy who's economy is already legendary
"fair share"?? come on man! if weekend and his boy wonder son pay on their international windfalls, then...maybe
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tax it and you get less of it-this would put weekends already amazing economy into even more amazing territory...maybe even rival that peanut farmer guy who's economy is already legendary
"fair share"?? come on man! if weekend and his boy wonder son pay on their international windfalls, then...maybe
7.5 out of 10
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roQQet's histeria and love of Putin notwithstanding ...
I'd put the odds of a 44.5% capital-gains tax passing both houses of Congress at roughly 0.0000000445%.
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tax it and you get less of it-this would put weekends already amazing economy into even more amazing territory...maybe even rival that peanut farmer guy who's economy is already legendary
"fair share"?? come on man! if weekend and his boy wonder son pay on their international windfalls, then...maybe
You're going to need to make this make sense if you want any sort of response... but I'm guessing you don't.
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roQQet's histeria and love of Putin notwithstanding ...
I'd put the odds of a 44.5% capital-gains tax passing both houses of Congress at roughly 0.0000000445%.
Yea, the unrealized gains tax popping up again pretty much confirmed that. Its just political posturing to curry favor for November. Talking head fodder but nothing more.
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proposed capital gains tax to 44.5% would be an economy KILLER!!
This isn't the whole story. The plan is to raise the top cap gains ordinary rate to 39.6% (from 20%)
Then there's a proposed 44.6% rate that would apply to people that have income over $1,000,000/year. To earn over $1,000,000/year in capital gains, and to have a sustainable drawdown plan, you'd need to have ~$25,000,000 in investment holdings. Nobody on scoop has $25MM in assets or over $1,000,000 in income, so I think we're safe.
Source, if you'd like to read more - https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/biden-calls-for-doubling-capital-gains-tax-rate
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I'm pretty confident little or none of that will ever become reality.
But on the teeny tiny chance that it does ... some of the healthiest U.S. economies in the last 100 years have been during times of high tax rates, especially on the richest Americans.
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This isn't the whole story. The plan is to raise the top cap gains ordinary rate to 39.6% (from 20%)
Then there's a proposed 44.6% rate that would apply to people that have income over $1,000,000/year. To earn over $1,000,000/year in capital gains, and to have a sustainable drawdown plan, you'd need to have ~$25,000,000 in investment holdings. Nobody on scoop has $25MM in assets or over $1,000,000 in income, so I think we're safe.
Source, if you'd like to read more - https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/biden-calls-for-doubling-capital-gains-tax-rate
I have 50,000,000 shares of muscoop stock. How much do I have to pay if I sell?
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I have 50,000,000 shares of muscoop stock. How much do I have to pay if I sell?
Well, it's worthless, so nothing.
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I have 50,000,000 shares of muscoop stock. How much do I have to pay if I sell?
($5,000)
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I have 50,000,000 shares of muscoop stock. How much do I have to pay if I sell?
Please pass along your SSN, mother’s maiden name and address and I’ll see you get paid.
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I was unaware you were a Nigerian prince.
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This isn't the whole story. The plan is to raise the top cap gains ordinary rate to 39.6% (from 20%)
Then there's a proposed 44.6% rate that would apply to people that have income over $1,000,000/year. To earn over $1,000,000/year in capital gains, and to have a sustainable drawdown plan, you'd need to have ~$25,000,000 in investment holdings. Nobody on scoop has $25MM in assets or over $1,000,000 in income, so I think we're safe.
Source, if you'd like to read more - https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/biden-calls-for-doubling-capital-gains-tax-rate
All good info skat but just because it doesn’t affect you or I directly, it does indirectly whether you want to believe or not. You know, the knee bone is connected to the….
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I was unaware you were a Nigerian prince.
If you pass that information along, I will send you an autographed Bible
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I only want the one with the bonus features.
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I only want the one with the bonus features.
In my Bible, Jesus shoots up the Romans and nails some pornstars. It’s pretty awesome
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All good info skat but just because it doesn’t affect you or I directly, it does indirectly whether you want to believe or not. You know, the knee bone is connected to the….
He said between slurps of the ultra rich, something he will never be
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In my Bible, Jesus shoots up the Romans and nails some pornstars. It’s pretty awesome
Apparently, I, too, need to get out more.
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I have 50,000,000 shares of muscoop stock. How much do I have to pay if I sell?
I'll trade you for my Trump Bucks
(https://images2.imgbox.com/1f/a7/DT4bPQGx_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/DT4bPQGx)
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In my Bible, Jesus shoots up the Romans and nails some pornstars. It’s pretty awesome
In Kristi Noem’s version, Jesus shoots his 14-month-old puppy and brags about it.
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All good info skat but just because it doesn’t affect you or I directly, it does indirectly whether you want to believe or not. You know, the knee bone is connected to the….
Ok
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In Kristi Noem’s version, Jesus shoots his 14-month-old puppy and brags about it.
corn pops version says he utilizes his water walking skills to save lives as as a pool lifeguard, finishes first in his law school class, beds numerous women not including all those he's pre-sniffed and showers with his daughter seemingly ok back in "the day"
oh, and drove an 18-wheeler all the way to India for their world renowned ice cream
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corn pops version says he utilizes his water walking skills to save lives as as a pool lifeguard, finishes first in his law school class, beds numerous women not including all those he's pre-sniffed and showers with his daughter seemingly ok back in "the day"
oh, and drove an 18-wheeler all the way to India for their world renowned ice cream
7 out of 10
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Donald Trump’s allies are drawing up plans that would attempt to erode the Fed’s independence, if the former president wins a second term.
Some advisers argue that he should be consulted on interest-rate decisions, and a secret draft document recommends subjecting Fed regulations to White House review and more forcefully using the Treasury Department as a check on the central bank, according to people familiar with the matter. They also say some contend that Trump would have the authority to oust Jerome Powell as Fed chair before his four-year term ends in 2026, though Powell would likely remain on the central bank’s board of governors. It couldn’t be determined whether Trump is aware of or signed off on the effort, but some people close to the discussions believe he gave it his blessing. The Fed has enjoyed considerable operational autonomy in setting interest rates since the Truman administration.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Donald Trump’s allies are drawing up plans that would attempt to erode the Fed’s independence, if the former president wins a second term.
Some advisers argue that he should be consulted on interest-rate decisions, and a secret draft document recommends subjecting Fed regulations to White House review and more forcefully using the Treasury Department as a check on the central bank, according to people familiar with the matter. They also say some contend that Trump would have the authority to oust Jerome Powell as Fed chair before his four-year term ends in 2026, though Powell would likely remain on the central bank’s board of governors. It couldn’t be determined whether Trump is aware of or signed off on the effort, but some people close to the discussions believe he gave it his blessing. The Fed has enjoyed considerable operational autonomy in setting interest rates since the Truman administration.
Without a doubt, one of the dumbest things a politician could try to do. Very Jacksonian in his views, much like views on the Second National Bank of the United States.
I get that Presidents need to curry favor with the Chairman of the Fed. Bill Clinton was a master at smoozing Alan Greenspan. That was a major part of President Clinton's economic success. But there's a huge difference between who you appoint to the Fed, how you manage the Fed and effectively taking control of the U.S. Monetary supply to accomplish partisan aims. The latter would be a killer.
If President Biden had control of the money supply, interest rates between now and November would drop 500 basis points. The housing market would explode and MMT would be the order of the day. It would also scare the hell out of more than a few economists.
I get the overall concern. The Depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s was exacerbated and extended by the Federal Reserve's extraordinarily tight monetary policy. The New Deal was a direct response by President Roosevelt of the Fed's inability to act. We've learned a lot since then about how the economy works and giving politicians direct control of the Fed and the money supply, we've learned, is an incredibly BAD idea!!
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From Seeking Alpha:
U.S. Private Sector Employment rose 192K in April, exceeding the +175K expected and easing from the +208K jobs added in March (revised from 184K), according to the ADP National Employment Report.
Annual pay increased 5.0% Y/Y, roughly stable with March's 5.1% pace. For job changers, annual pay rose 9.3% Y/Y vs. 10.1% in March.
"Hiring was broad-based in April," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021."
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https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1786377408993468714?s=46&t=MgFcVSyNZ3trQo7jtjCxVg
🫣… we’re in good hands. 🤷🏻♂️
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Bullchit, hey?
https://wallstreetjournal-ny.newsmemory.com/?publink=5f0ece214_134d29c
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https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1786377408993468714?s=46&t=MgFcVSyNZ3trQo7jtjCxVg
🫣… we’re in good hands. 🤷🏻♂️
Did you seriously click that ad that has been on twitter for weeks for a movie about the national debt and then post a snippet of it here?
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Did you seriously click that ad that has been on twitter for weeks for a movie about the national debt and then post a snippet of it here?
Hards needs someone to love hardsley:
https://x.com/nocinerik/status/1786418988546699288?s=46
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https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/an-oil-price-fixing-conspiracy-caused
An Oil Price-Fixing Conspiracy Caused 27% of All Inflation Increases in 2021
The hits keep coming
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Did you seriously click that ad that has been on twitter for weeks for a movie about the national debt and then post a snippet of it here?
He's gunning for roqqet's crown.
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something like 11 out of last 13 jobs reports have had to be REVISED DOWN.
most people don't see the revisions-
that's what weekend at Bernie's is hoping
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something like 11 out of last 13 jobs reports have had to be REVISED DOWN.
most people don't see the revisions-
that's what weekend at Bernie's is hoping
That happens often, regardless of who the president is.
Most people are intelligent enough to know that.
But Dementia Don - the only modern president to end up with fewer employed Americans than when he took office - is grateful that his mindless cultists aren't among the knowledgeable.
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Did you seriously click that ad that has been on twitter for weeks for a movie about the national debt and then post a snippet of it here?
Just wait until he posts a clip of "2000 Mules."
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Hards needs someone to love hardsley:
https://x.com/nocinerik/status/1786418988546699288?s=46
The US prints money because it can because it is backed fully by the US military and is the reserve currency of the world.
Do I own other things because I believe that this may not always be the case? Yes.
But people crying about the national debt have been doing it for 50+ years. And yet, here we are. Still on top.
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This isn't the whole story. The plan is to raise the top cap gains ordinary rate to 39.6% (from 20%)
Then there's a proposed 44.6% rate that would apply to people that have income over $1,000,000/year. To earn over $1,000,000/year in capital gains, and to have a sustainable drawdown plan, you'd need to have ~$25,000,000 in investment holdings. Nobody on scoop has $25MM in assets or over $1,000,000 in income, so I think we're safe.
Source, if you'd like to read more - https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/biden-calls-for-doubling-capital-gains-tax-rate
My guess is a lot of Scoopers would be impacted by this.
There are folks and families who have built up businesses over a life time . If they sell , The Govt take from the deal would more than double.
Also people who have worked their entire year for large companies and accumulated significant stock holdings. This is especially true for folks who were employed by tech companies that have grown and dominated.
Someone who owns a family farm and now its in the path of progress. So that acreage value sky rockets , even if it stays a farm over 40 50 years there has been increases
A well compensated manager who happens to sell a highly appreciated home could easily make over a million if the home sale exceeds the excluded amount
An individual investor who has long term holdings with huge imbedded capital gains would be impacted
I know for sure on many fronts these proposed tax increases will hit me and my family.
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something like 11 out of last 13 jobs reports have had to be REVISED DOWN.
most people don't see the revisions-
that's what weekend at Bernie's is hoping
Oh. I guess that negates the 7.5M jobs created in the last two years then. Thanks for setting us straight.
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Yeah I’m not sure this is a great idea. I would rather see a good look at increasing dividend tax rates and leave capital gains rates alone.
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My guess is a lot of Scoopers would be impacted by this.
There are folks and families who have built up businesses over a life time . If they sell , The Govt take from the deal would more than double.
Also people who have worked their entire year for large companies and accumulated significant stock holdings. This is especially true for folks who were employed by tech companies that have grown and dominated.
Someone who owns a family farm and now its in the path of progress. So that acreage value sky rockets , even if it stays a farm over 40 50 years there has been increases
A well compensated manager who happens to sell a highly appreciated home could easily make over a million if the home sale exceeds the excluded amount
An individual investor who has long term holdings with huge imbedded capital gains would be impacted
I know for sure on many fronts these proposed tax increases will hit me and my family.
I mean, right, but a one time liquidity event being slightly less profitable i for every dollar over $1MM s different from the claim that Biden is raising cap gains taxes to 45%.
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Oh. I guess that negates the 7.5M jobs created in the last two years then. Thanks for setting us straight.
Jesus h. chriminey man, post covid, f'ing pee-wee Herman could have been in the house and those jobs would have been retrieved. just wait to see how union dude weekend at Bernie's flushes the UAW down the chitter for his incessant dreams of climate blah-blah and they don't even know what's going to hit them
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Jesus h. chriminey man, post covid, f'ing pee-wee Herman could have been in the house and those jobs would have been retrieved. just wait to see how union dude weekend at Bernie's flushes the UAW down the chitter for his incessant dreams of climate blah-blah and they don't even know what's going to hit them
See, mutaman?
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Jesus h. chriminey man, post covid, f'ing pee-wee Herman could have been in the house and those jobs would have been retrieved. just wait to see how union dude weekend at Bernie's flushes the UAW down the chitter for his incessant dreams of climate blah-blah and they don't even know what's going to hit them
Dumbest unnatural carnal knowledge on the Internet
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Da Buffoon's goin' down in MI wit both the UAW and Arabs, hey?
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Dumbest unnatural carnal knowledge on the Internet
Don’t worry, he can be topped in just a few posts below
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My guess is a lot of Scoopers would be impacted by this.
There are folks and families who have built up businesses over a life time . If they sell , The Govt take from the deal would more than double.
Also people who have worked their entire year for large companies and accumulated significant stock holdings. This is especially true for folks who were employed by tech companies that have grown and dominated.
Someone who owns a family farm and now its in the path of progress. So that acreage value sky rockets , even if it stays a farm over 40 50 years there has been increases
A well compensated manager who happens to sell a highly appreciated home could easily make over a million if the home sale exceeds the excluded amount
An individual investor who has long term holdings with huge imbedded capital gains would be impacted
I know for sure on many fronts these proposed tax increases will hit me and my family.
Herm's not wrong.
If you're a family farmer in Iowa whose sons want to inherit the farm, this could be a killer.
If your family owns a small business structured as a Subchapter "S" Corp, this could be a killer too.
Keep in mind that a substantial amount of today's capital markets are investments held for the benefit of ordinary people. And while "they" claim that higher capital gains and wealth taxes will only be on the wealthy, how long will that last? Keep in mind that "fair" is what's ever in your best interests and "rich" is an abstract noun predicated on whoever is making the definition.
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Herm's not wrong.
If you're a family farmer in Iowa whose sons want to inherit the farm, this could be a killer.
If your family owns a small business structured as a Subchapter "S" Corp, this could be a killer too.
How? The only impact this would have on family business succession planning is if parents are selling the business to children. Assuming that is done on a seller financing installment sale, this would just increase the tax paid on the installment payments. I think you're conflating eliminating basis step up with actually increaseing a transfer (gift or estate) tax burden, which would have a much more direct impact on transferring illiquid assets.
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I mean, right, but a one time liquidity event being slightly less profitable i for every dollar over $1MM s different from the claim that Biden is raising cap gains taxes to 45%.
If you can’t lie, you can’t be a MAGAt.
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Jesus h. chriminey man, post covid, f'ing pee-wee Herman could have been in the house and those jobs would have been retrieved. just wait to see how union dude weekend at Bernie's flushes the UAW down the chitter for his incessant dreams of climate blah-blah and they don't even know what's going to hit them
So one president should be exempt from economic statistics because covid impacted the job numbers, but the other one should not be exempt from economic statistics because covid impacted inflation?
Do you hear yourself? I hope you limit your silly statements to chat boards and don't make them in public. You would be laughed out of any serious conversation on the economy.
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Herm's not wrong.
If you're a family farmer in Iowa whose sons want to inherit the farm, this could be a killer.
If your family owns a small business structured as a Subchapter "S" Corp, this could be a killer too.
Keep in mind that a substantial amount of today's capital markets are investments held for the benefit of ordinary people. And while "they" claim that higher capital gains and wealth taxes will only be on the wealthy, how long will that last? Keep in mind that "fair" is what's ever in your best interests and "rich" is an abstract noun predicated on whoever is making the definition.
So exempt farms. Next.
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I mean, right, but a one time liquidity event being slightly less profitable i for every dollar over $1MM s different from the claim that Biden is raising cap gains taxes to 45%.
By and large I think its just pre-election bluster. I don't think this would pass and I don't think its going to gain more momentum than that.
My biggest fear with it, and not even in some hysterical slippery slope worry, is fundamentally changing the way capital gains are viewed. If its the first step in wanting to align capital gains with normal income, that's worrisome and something I really don't like. Especially because many younger people in my age gap and younger (sub 40) foolishly think of capital gains as something that only impacts billionaires and CEOs.
20% is a phenomenal cap gains rate, if there was a successful push to make it higher (say 30% on the high end), its not great but something that could be stomached. But a rate that would mean you're losing 50% of your capital gains between federal and state taxes on the sale of a business or well built stock portfolio is gross to me. YMMV
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By and large I think its just pre-election bluster. I don't think this would pass and I don't think its going to gain more momentum than that.
My biggest fear with it, and not even in some hysterical slippery slope worry, is fundamentally changing the way capital gains are viewed. If its the first step in wanting to align capital gains with normal income, that's worrisome and something I really don't like. Especially because many younger people in my age gap and younger (sub 40) foolishly think of capital gains as something that only impacts billionaires and CEOs.
20% is a phenomenal cap gains rate, if there was a successful push to make it higher (say 30% on the high end), its not great but something that could be stomached. But a rate that would mean you're losing 50% of your capital gains between federal and state taxes on the sale of a business or well built stock portfolio is gross to me. YMMV
Yeah agreed. Hopefully they continue to follow up on their stated goal of taxing folks that are really wealthy (regular income over $1MM a year, or whatever) instead of coming after the broad middle/upper class.
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So exempt farms. Next.
Do you have any idea how Congress works?
You exempt farms and suddenly every lobbying group known to mankind will be looking for the similar exemption. Which is why our tax code is one of the most ridiculously complex sets of regulation ever put on the face of the Earth.
Let's just leave capital gains alone and create investment incentives.
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Do you have any idea how Congress works?
You exempt farms and suddenly every lobbying group known to mankind will be looking for the similar exemption. Which is why our tax code is one of the most ridiculously complex sets of regulation ever put on the face of the Earth.
Let's just leave capital gains alone and create investment incentives.
Everyone knows Congress would never create special benefits just for farmers.
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Do you have any idea how Congress works?
You exempt farms and suddenly every lobbying group known to mankind will be looking for the similar exemption. Which is why our tax code is one of the most ridiculously complex sets of regulation ever put on the face of the Earth.
Let's just leave capital gains alone and create investment incentives.
I have no problem with this. Just don't think farms are an impediment to capital gains increase. I'm not advocating for an increase.
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Here's some good (but not great) news:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security have been pushed back as an improving economy has contributed to changed projected depletion dates, according to the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report Monday.
https://apnews.com/article/social-security-medicare-entitlements-treasury-35a2913a3f21a3b0ff40f2c88cbf9cbc
Highlights:
++ Medicare’s go-broke date for its hospital insurance trust fund was pushed back five years to 2036 in the latest report, thanks in part to higher payroll tax income and lower-than-projected expenses from last year.
++ Social Security’s trust funds — which cover old age and disability recipients — will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2035, instead of last year’s estimate of 2034. Social Security would only be able to pay 83% of benefits.
++ Still, officials warn that policy changes are needed lest the programs become unable to pay full benefits to retiring Americans.
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The US prints money because it can because it is backed fully by the US military and is the reserve currency of the world.
Do I own other things because I believe that this may not always be the case? Yes.
But people crying about the national debt have been doing it for 50+ years. And yet, here we are. Still on top.
Life couldn’t be better!!!
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Well, it certainly could be. But the national debt concerns are alarmist nonsense going on five decades. The dollar has never been stronger worldwide.
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?
Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.
Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.
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Brad Smith was born in Milwaukee and raised in Appleton. Microsoft has made a bunch of investments in the state that he has been involved with.
Oh and the CEO has a degree from UWM - forgot about that.
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?
Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.
Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.
Hopefully
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
Id wait to see what percentage of hires/jobs are filled by lower paid H1B visa holders before declaring that.
Thats not an immigration complaint as much as a reaction to stuff Ive heard out of friends and colleagues in Silicon Valley.
Though I think its still a major upgrade over the Foxconn situation.
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Id wait to see what percentage of hires/jobs are filled by lower paid H1B visa holders before declaring that.
Thats not an immigration complaint as much as a reaction to stuff Ive heard out of friends and colleagues in Silicon Valley.
Though I think its still a major upgrade over the Foxconn situation.
Fair enough. And that goes for Unk's post, too.
Let's just say I have a lot more confidence in Microsoft following through than I ever did in Foxconn.
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Id wait to see what percentage of hires/jobs are filled by lower paid H1B visa holders before declaring that.
Thats not an immigration complaint as much as a reaction to stuff Ive heard out of friends and colleagues in Silicon Valley.
Though I think its still a major upgrade over the Foxconn situation.
Man it's such a large time + money expense to get H1B visa people these days I'd be surprised if that's still a trend. Maybe people at large established companies with lawyers on retainer can afford it more easily.
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?
Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.
Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.
Don't celebrate until it's up and running.
Politicians tend to rug pull Wisconsinites all the time.
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Don't celebrate until it's up and running.
Politicians tend to rug pull Wisconsinites all the time.
Very possibly but I'd argue that when you spend as much as Wisconsin did on infrastructure improvement, site prep, rezoning and job recruitment, inevitably, somebody will find you.
Way to go Microsoft. Here's hoping there's no rug pull!
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Well, it certainly could be. But the national debt concerns are alarmist nonsense going on five decades. The dollar has never been stronger worldwide.
Weird how there's no national debt alarmism when it comes to funding weapons/offensive global conflicts
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Weird how there's no national debt alarmism when it comes to funding weapons/offensive global conflicts
Branding.
"National security" vs "entitlements"
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Don't celebrate until it's up and running.
Politicians tend to rug pull Wisconsinites all the time.
I wonder if Ron Walker, I mean Scott Desanctimonius will be there with Boss Vos?
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?
Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.
Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.
Is there a Mount Pleasant in Wisconsin?
Maybe Pleasant Prairie outside of Kenosha?
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Is there a Mount Pleasant in Wisconsin?
Maybe Pleasant Prairie outside of Kenosha?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pleasant,_Wisconsin
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Here's some good (but not great) news:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security have been pushed back as an improving economy has contributed to changed projected depletion dates, according to the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report Monday.
https://apnews.com/article/social-security-medicare-entitlements-treasury-35a2913a3f21a3b0ff40f2c88cbf9cbc
Highlights:
++ Medicare’s go-broke date for its hospital insurance trust fund was pushed back five years to 2036 in the latest report, thanks in part to higher payroll tax income and lower-than-projected expenses from last year.
++ Social Security’s trust funds — which cover old age and disability recipients — will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2035, instead of last year’s estimate of 2034. Social Security would only be able to pay 83% of benefits.
++ Still, officials warn that policy changes are needed lest the programs become unable to pay full benefits to retiring Americans.
I think I found an easy way to solve this problem...
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Yeah it's wild how little I pay
I think I found an easy way to solve this problem...
Yep, the cutoff is ridiculous. It's not like social security taxes are that much anyway. Killing an american institution to save high income people a few bucks is silly. The taxable maximum is $168,600 this year, which is silly.
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Yep.
I’ve also seen a “donut hole” plan, in which you tax up to, say, $125K; don’t tax from $125K to, say, $500K; and then tax again from $500K to whatever.
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From the NYT DealBook e-newsletter:
Extending the Trump tax cuts could cost $4.6 trillion, the C.B.O. warns. Calculations by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show that renewing the 2017 reduction in personal income taxes alone would cost $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Trump favors renewing the cuts (and has proposed additional cuts).
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From the NYT DealBook e-newsletter:
Extending the Trump tax cuts could cost $4.6 trillion, the C.B.O. warns. Calculations by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show that renewing the 2017 reduction in personal income taxes alone would cost $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Trump favors renewing the cuts (and has proposed additional cuts).
The latter sum in total amounts to just over half of what the US will spend in 2025 alone, much less the next decade.
This isn't meant to be for or against these particular cuts, just against the continued idea by some that the government can tax its way to a more balanced budget...instead of slashing bloated spending. Saving $400B a year from the cuts wouldn't even fix a quarter of the deficit. And contrary to what many believe or want to finger point on, reckless and bloated spending is very much a bipartisan problem.
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The latter sum in total amounts to just over half of what the US will spend in 2025 alone, much less the next decade.
This isn't meant to be for or against these particular cuts, just against the continued idea by some that the government can tax its way to a more balanced budget...instead of slashing bloated spending. Saving $400B a year from the cuts wouldn't even fix a quarter of the deficit. And contrary to what many believe or want to finger point on, reckless and bloated spending is very much a bipartisan problem.
Correct. Each side has a problem overspending, it’s just in different places.
The solution is efficiency and streamlining departments but bureaucracy and all that jazz
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Correct. Each side has a problem overspending, it’s just in different places.
The solution is efficiency and streamlining departments but bureaucracy and all that jazz
The solution is a little of both.
Only one presidential administration over the past 50+ years created a budget surplus. They did it by raising taxes on high-income earners (and well off Social Security recipients) AND cutting both social and defense spending.
It's a pretty obvious formula, except to every occupant of the White House since.
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The solution is a little of both.
Only one presidential administration over the past 50+ years created a budget surplus. They did it by raising taxes on high-income earners (and well off Social Security recipients) AND cutting both social and defense spending.
It's a pretty obvious formula, except to every occupant of the White House since.
We just need some adults in the room. Alas, the room has been hijacked by performance and BS artists. That’s a both sides comment, but one side is certainly running away in that category
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Whoops
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"where are we spending our federal dollars?"
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-does-federal-government-spend-its-money
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The solution is a little of both.
Only one presidential administration over the past 50+ years created a budget surplus. They did it by raising taxes on high-income earners (and well off Social Security recipients) AND cutting both social and defense spending.
It's a pretty obvious formula, except to every occupant of the White House since.
yep
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The latter sum in total amounts to just over half of what the US will spend in 2025 alone, much less the next decade.
This isn't meant to be for or against these particular cuts, just against the continued idea by some that the government can tax its way to a more balanced budget...instead of slashing bloated spending. Saving $400B a year from the cuts wouldn't even fix a quarter of the deficit. And contrary to what many believe or want to finger point on, reckless and bloated spending is very much a bipartisan problem.
I'd argue that closing a quarter of the deficit is a fine start, particularly as the effort amounts to nothing more than allowing the tax cuts to mercifully expire.
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I'd argue that closing a quarter of the deficit is a fine start, particularly as the effort amounts to nothing more than allowing the tax cuts to mercifully expire.
If the allowing the cuts to close ended nonsense discussions of wealth taxes, unearned gains taxes, and jacking up capital gains rates, then I'd be all for it (I mean I don't have much of an issue with letting them expire anyways, even though it would be to my detriment in a few ways). As well as a meaningful effort to reduce spending. Alas I have a hunch that the savings would be earmarked for new spend as soon as they start to flow in
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There is very little appetite to reduce spending. Fun to talk about, but that's about it.
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If the allowing the cuts to close ended nonsense discussions of wealth taxes, unearned gains taxes, and jacking up capital gains rates, then I'd be all for it (I mean I don't have much of an issue with letting them expire anyways, even though it would be to my detriment in a few ways). As well as a meaningful effort to reduce spending. Alas I have a hunch that the savings would be earmarked for new spend as soon as they start to flow in
I *think* the bolded are not as much attempts at balancing a budget but more attempts at wealth redistribution.
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Yes. For every unneeded tax cut, there is an expensive boondoggle.
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There is very little appetite to reduce spending. Fun to talk about, but that's about it.
Painfully obvious. No one wants to jeopardize votes.
While the dollar may be strong against other currencies of the world. Bottom line it doesn't purchase much.
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I think it is going to be very interesting to see how big of role the economy comes election day. A lot can happen in six months, but I think the economy will end up be the deciding factor in November.
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I think it is going to be very interesting to see how big of role the economy comes election day. A lot can happen in six months, but I think the economy will end up be the deciding factor in November.
I'm hopeful that that 25th amendment, as well as a prison sentence are bigger deciding factors.
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Hards
I think we are going to see exactly how strong the economy is or is not. My opinion on the economy has been shared on here and I have been in the small minority with my thoughts. That said, I think if the election was today, we would have a new president 100% because of the state of the economy.
Will add, at this moment I do not want either guy as the next president and do not believe either can fix what I believe to be a very fragile economy.
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Hards
I think we are going to see exactly how strong the economy is or is not. My opinion on the economy has been shared on here and I have been in the small minority with my thoughts. That said, I think if the election was today, we would have a new president 100% because of the state of the economy.
Will add, at this moment I do not want either guy as the next president and do not believe either can fix what I believe to be a very fragile economy.
Well your second thought was what I was getting at. I think the country just needs to move on from both of these guys and the toxic environment that has been created. But short of my hopes, I don't think we have a chance at reconciliation in the near future.
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I find it amusing people use and/or distort "the economy" to match their political beliefs. I had some friends last week pose the (silly) question of "Are you actually doing better than 4 years ago?"
2024: Yes.
2020: Yes. This pandemic is a sh*t show though.
2016: Yes.
2012: Yes.
2008: Yes.
...
I've never encountered a president that significantly altered my personal economy. They sure do like to wave their hands about it though.
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rocky
How do you define better off for yourself? I define it by have I done better than the average person. Having more money but being on par with the masses is not better off, imo.
Now, I am guessing you feel the same way, but I think many people have been lulled into believing they are better off simply because their net worth went up. I know a lot of under 40 people that have a bigger next egg than 4, 8 or 10 years ago and their ability to buy a bigger house is lower than it was 10 years ago.
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rocky
How do you define better off for yourself? I define it by have I done better than the average person. Having more money but being on par with the masses is not better off, imo.
Now, I am guessing you feel the same way, but I think many people have been lulled into believing they are better off simply because their net worth went up. I know a lot of under 40 people that have a bigger next egg than 4, 8 or 10 years ago and their ability to buy a bigger house is lower than it was 10 years ago.
Housing affordability is sort of a bad way to measure the economy. I think we've discussed the reasons housing has exploded in price in the last twenty years.
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I'm hopeful that that 25th amendment, as well as a prison sentence are bigger deciding factors.
As an evangelical Christian, I appreciate my presidents banging pornstars while their wife is home pregnant, runs their business even though they say they’ve divested and lie to the American people and hates immigrants. If you am evangelical Christian like myself, the choice would be easy.
Also, I believe in Law and Order and more tax cuts for the rich. Being a Christian demands I make more money than the average shmuck.
I’d like to see more support for Vladimir Putin who also is a Christian.
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Hards
I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off
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Hards
I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off
The problem I see with that is the amount of regulation (or deregulation), legislation and lobbying that is done on behalf of corporation and ultra wealthy interests far outweighs what is done for the average family of four.
And that's got nearly nothing to do with the president or their administration.
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Hards
I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off
I'm not sure. I think that single measurements like this will always be a pretty inaccurate way of knowing how strong the economy is. I honestly don't know what the best way to measure the economy as a whole is. Probably some combination of CPI, unemployment, wage growth, housing prices/construction, and GDP. And even that is a macro way to look at things. The economy of one city to another is going to vary to some degree.
Sometimes I think people look at the economy as sort of "vibes based", and depending on the political climate they are biased to think things are going better or worse than they actually are. I prefer hard data, as always... but what exactly the criteria to measure is certainly up for debate.
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I thought this was a good summary from CNBC.
https://youtu.be/O4qOE1U9I8o?si=4RxzVqJQWciU5WzQ
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Hards
I guess you kind of hit on my point. Judging a Disney trip affordability is not a big picture view on the economy, but millions of families answering that question is a better perspective. My original post today is that I truly am interested in seeing how big of a role the economy plays in November.
Will say again, I do not think either guy is going to do the hard things to improve the overall economy. To be honest, if the economy plays little into the election it will prove to me that I was wrong on my views. I'd have zero problem admitting my opinion was wrong on the topic.
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Goose, for several years now you've been talking about the economy teetering on the precipice of disaster.
You'll probable be right eventually, because there's always a next recession, but I'm sure glad I didn't change my investing style because 2 or 3 or 5 or 10 years ago I was worried about "the next big one."
We have full employment, companies are setting earnings records, AI is fueling a whole different kind of growth, the market is at an all-time high, inflation is still there obviously but it's growing more slowly, consumers are consuming bigly ... and yes, mommies and daddies are still paying the freight to take the kiddos to Disney World.
This isn't a perfect economy, but what is? Every president ever would be crowing about the current economy if it were under his watch.
None of which means disaster won't start tomorrow. If so, you'll get to say, "I told you so."
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As an evangelical Christian, I appreciate my presidents banging pornstars while their wife is home pregnant, runs their business even though they say they’ve divested and lie to the American people and hates immigrants. If you am evangelical Christian like myself, the choice would be easy.
Also, I believe in Law and Order and more tax cuts for the rich. Being a Christian demands I make more money than the average shmuck.
I’d like to see more support for Vladimir Putin who also is a Christian.
what about your presidents showering with their daughter? does your evangelical high priest/priestess allow for this?
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what about your presidents showering with their daughter? does your evangelical high priest/priestess allow for this?
Absolutely. Heck, we encourage using the pickup line some use on pornstars that go like this:
“You remind me of my daughter”
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82
I think we have communicated on this topic via PM on several occasions and we probably agree more than we disagree. I do believe the fundamental principles of a sound economy have been lost since 9/11 and that is my opinion. To be honest, I highly, highly doubt we will ever see an economic disaster in my lifetime. Three times in my life, 9/11, Great Recession and pandemic the Fed and the government pulled out all stops to avoid economic disaster. That is enough of an education for me to feel comfortable that doomsday is not coming.
I have stated multiple times that my idea of how the USA economy is outdated and because of that, there is little chance for disaster happening. I have told you several times, I believe, that #1 I would not never want to say "I told you so" on this topic and #2 I very well may be 100% incorrect in my views.
Not that it swayed my opinion, but I was watching the Biden interview on CNN last night and he was challenged about his growing on the economy. That actually was why I made my OP today. Erin Burnett made it sound, to me, that maybe there was more crowing than merited.
Again, I am 60y and want the greatest economy for the next 20y for selfish reasons and never have hoped for a bad economy. I have this discussion with many family and friends and my BIL in finance is always a great person to talk with. As a rule, after laughing at my comments, will say that my premise is not wrong and might actually be right. That is followed by just because does not look right, does that mean it is not right. Ironically, while he is a fiscal conservative, he says his biggest regret was not borrowing as much free money as possible over the last ten years. He states that he did not because the 'it doesn't look right" mindset kept from pulling the trigger.
For the record, I hope I am proven wrong, and I'll gladly say I was flat out wrong. I think you know enough about me to know that I would love to say that. Biggest reason why, it is too important issue to want to be right about.
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Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?
Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.
Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.
I don't believe you understand the foxcon project at all and no surprise it's been revised quite beautifully by you guys.
Scott walker had it set up such that foxconn would get no money unless they met certain hiring prerequisites, etc etc well , they never did under walker and did not get paid a dime. Uncle Tony however renegotiated the deal to lower the bar for foxconn
"it’s first worth noting that Wisconsin has not yet given Foxconn any money."
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/apr/30/tony-evers/gov-tony-evers-doesnt-tell-whole-story-claim-new-f/
Microsoft would have never considered the mount pleasant area if not for it having been developed to promote/attract companies like foxconn
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I don't believe you understand the foxcon project at all and no surprise it's been revised quite beautifully by you guys.
Scott walker had it set up such that foxconn would get no money unless they met certain hiring prerequisites, etc etc well , they never did under walker and did not get paid a dime. Uncle Tony however renegotiated the deal to lower the bar for foxconn
"it’s first worth noting that Wisconsin has not yet given Foxconn any money."
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/apr/30/tony-evers/gov-tony-evers-doesnt-tell-whole-story-claim-new-f/
Microsoft would have never considered the mount pleasant area if not for it having been developed to promote/attract companies like foxconn
lol
8 out of 10
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I don't believe you understand the foxcon project at all and no surprise it's been revised quite beautifully by you guys.
Scott walker had it set up such that foxconn would get no money unless they met certain hiring prerequisites, etc etc well , they never did under walker and did not get paid a dime. Uncle Tony however renegotiated the deal to lower the bar for foxconn
"it’s first worth noting that Wisconsin has not yet given Foxconn any money."
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/apr/30/tony-evers/gov-tony-evers-doesnt-tell-whole-story-claim-new-f/
Microsoft would have never considered the mount pleasant area if not for it having been developed to promote/attract companies like foxconn
In anticipation of 13,000 new workers, the Wisconsin Department of Transportation spent $168 million of taxpayer money for pavement that now “leads to nowhere.” Highway lanes were expanded, and rural roads became four-lane highways. Murphy reports that “the Village of Mount Pleasant and Racine County committed to spending $808 million for sewer, water and other costs and by 2021 had spent $258 million on this.”
By 2021, Wisconsin spent $683 million of taxpayer funds on a manufacturing campus that never came into full fruition. As time goes on, even though Foxconn publicly announced it will no longer be creating a ginormous factory, governmental entities are expected to spend even more. As reported by Murphy in 2021, at least another $552 million is projected to be spent.
And here's the piece de reistance:
Since the Foxconn deal slowly crumbled, the state has been trying to entice other large corporations to invest in the land already prepared for Foxconn. Most recently, Microsoft has stepped in and purchased $50 million of land for a data center. However, according to previous agreements, all those dollars will be paid to Foxconn.
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2023/7/20/wisconsin-foxconn-deal-cost-taxpayers-millionsand-it-will-continue-to-cost-more-millions
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Nice try, but facts are for people that don't live in Fantasy Land of Things They Wish Were True.
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It was beneficial for the State of Wisconsin that Foxconn never held up their end of the bargain. It was a terrible agreement and pretty much everyone not named “Scott Walker” knows this.
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rocket
While I am far from expert in doing business in SE Asia and obviously have never done a major deal anywhere near the Foxconn deal in the region, but I am knowledgeable enough to see red flags. I stated on here when the Foxconn deal was announced that you could not finalize a deal on buying a $1m of toys from Taiwan as fast as that deal was completed. I was at the announcement party and actually stated the same thing to the MKE Biz Journal.
IMO, the deal happened for one of the three following reasons, #1 the state of WI gave away the farm immediately, #2 the state of WI had no idea what they were agreeing to or #3 it was a con job. The leadership of Foxconn are ruthless biz people and they either saw a mark with Scott Walker or they in on the con. My opinion, it was a combination of all three. Walker thought he could make something work, he was not sure what that looked like and it was a con job.
I like Scott Walker, but to say he was woefully unqualified to be part of that deal is a massive understatement. Brass from Apple get strong armed in Taiwan and China and they are high level guys. To believe that Walker and the posse they sent to Taiwan could handle that deal was laughable.
My biggest regret on that deal, I have to admit that it made the R's, both in WI and nationally, looked like the suckers at the table. I literally could not believe that there were biz leaders in WI that believed that the Foxconn was legit.
One thing I am confident in my life in saying is that anyone that thinks they will outsmart or outlast the Taiwanese/Chinese are delusional. I have seen firsthand for nearly 40 years biz leaders coming home from China/Taiwan thinking they won the battle and 99 out of 100 times they left money on the table. There was 0% chance of that deal being anything other than a costly PR move.
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It was beneficial for the State of Wisconsin that Foxconn never held up their end of the bargain. It was a terrible agreement and pretty much everyone not named “Scott Walker” knows this.
Having presidential aspirations requires thinking big.
Or the killing of unruly puppies.
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rocket
While I am far from expert in doing business in SE Asia and obviously have never done a major deal anywhere near the Foxconn deal in the region, but I am knowledgeable enough to see red flags. I stated on here when the Foxconn deal was announced that you could not finalize a deal on buying a $1m of toys from Taiwan as fast as that deal was completed. I was at the announcement party and actually stated the same thing to the MKE Biz Journal.
IMO, the deal happened for one of the three following reasons, #1 the state of WI gave away the farm immediately, #2 the state of WI had no idea what they were agreeing to or #3 it was a con job. The leadership of Foxconn are ruthless biz people and they either saw a mark with Scott Walker or they in on the con. My opinion, it was a combination of all three. Walker thought he could make something work, he was not sure what that looked like and it was a con job.
I like Scott Walker, but to say he was woefully unqualified to be part of that deal is a massive understatement. Brass from Apple get strong armed in Taiwan and China and they are high level guys. To believe that Walker and the posse they sent to Taiwan could handle that deal was laughable.
My biggest regret on that deal, I have to admit that it made the R's, both in WI and nationally, looked like the suckers at the table. I literally could not believe that there were biz leaders in WI that believed that the Foxconn was legit.
One thing I am confident in my life in saying is that anyone that thinks they will outsmart or outlast the Taiwanese/Chinese are delusional. I have seen firsthand for nearly 40 years biz leaders coming home from China/Taiwan thinking they won the battle and 99 out of 100 times they left money on the table. There was 0% chance of that deal being anything other than a costly PR move.
This. I know dyed-in-the-wool R’s who said at the time exactly what you’re saying.
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Rico
I have been a proud R my entire life and not afraid to admit that. When that deal was announced, especially with the high profile R's involved, I said to anyone that listen, "is this fxxkin serious?". I am ashamed that my party and the state of WI was involved that mess. That said, I am hopeful that MSFT can add to the WI economy. My guess, someone will fxck this as well.
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Rico
I have been a proud R my entire life and not afraid to admit that. When that deal was announced, especially with the high profile R's involved, I said to anyone that listen, "is this fxxkin serious?". I am ashamed that my party and the state of WI was involved that mess. That said, I am hopeful that MSFT can add to the WI economy. My guess, someone will fxck this as well.
Correct on the last part. My confidence level is pretty low this works out like they’re projecting
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Correct on the last part. My confidence level is pretty low this works out like they’re projecting
While it's a positive that anything is going on there, data centers tend not to provide major economic boosts. They don't provide significant employment - definitely not relative to their size - and nothing is manufactured or sold there.
Probably the biggest benefit will go to Mount Pleasant, IF they were/are smart enough to establish a municipal electricity tax.
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rocket
While I am far from expert in doing business in SE Asia and obviously have never done a major deal anywhere near the Foxconn deal in the region, but I am knowledgeable enough to see red flags. I stated on here when the Foxconn deal was announced that you could not finalize a deal on buying a $1m of toys from Taiwan as fast as that deal was completed. I was at the announcement party and actually stated the same thing to the MKE Biz Journal.
IMO, the deal happened for one of the three following reasons, #1 the state of WI gave away the farm immediately, #2 the state of WI had no idea what they were agreeing to or #3 it was a con job. The leadership of Foxconn are ruthless biz people and they either saw a mark with Scott Walker or they in on the con. My opinion, it was a combination of all three. Walker thought he could make something work, he was not sure what that looked like and it was a con job.
I like Scott Walker, but to say he was woefully unqualified to be part of that deal is a massive understatement. Brass from Apple get strong armed in Taiwan and China and they are high level guys. To believe that Walker and the posse they sent to Taiwan could handle that deal was laughable.
My biggest regret on that deal, I have to admit that it made the R's, both in WI and nationally, looked like the suckers at the table. I literally could not believe that there were biz leaders in WI that believed that the Foxconn was legit.
One thing I am confident in my life in saying is that anyone that thinks they will outsmart or outlast the Taiwanese/Chinese are delusional. I have seen firsthand for nearly 40 years biz leaders coming home from China/Taiwan thinking they won the battle and 99 out of 100 times they left money on the table. There was 0% chance of that deal being anything other than a costly PR move.
Agreed. Would have been awesome if everything that was promised did happen though. I'd be singing Walker's praises if it did.
Buuuuuuuuuuut I will say that Tony Evers did try to save the doomed project as well. It was foolishness on both of their accounts.
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goose-
thank you for the clarity! knowing you and how you've done business in that part of the globe, I completely respect your point of view.
correct me if i'm wrong however-regardless of whatever deal was struck with foxconn, my understanding is foxconn got the land and infrastructure to locate on BUT would not realize any thing unless they met certain hiring criteria...which they did not
yes, wisconsin was sitting on a big piece of land all set up for business, great access to the freeway and proximity to milwaukee, madison and chicago
tell me what's wrong with that except the fact that they do not have the tenant they expected? now a company such as microsoft comes along and goes-hey, the table is set here
maybe not the way many wanted it to be, but the investment in infrastructure will pay off
hell if it's money they could've used elsewhere? this state should be in pretty good shape if they can afford to keep a few billion tax payer dollars in the bank rather than giving it back to those of us who over paid
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goose-
thank you for the clarity! knowing you and how you've done business in that part of the globe, I completely respect your point of view.
correct me if i'm wrong however-regardless of whatever deal was struck with foxconn, my understanding is foxconn got the land and infrastructure to locate on BUT would not realize any thing unless they met certain hiring criteria...which they did not
yes, wisconsin was sitting on a big piece of land all set up for business, great access to the freeway and proximity to milwaukee, madison and chicago
tell me what's wrong with that except the fact that they do not have the tenant they expected? now a company such as microsoft comes along and goes-hey, the table is set here
maybe not the way many wanted it to be, but the investment in infrastructure will pay off
hell if it's money they could've used elsewhere? this state should be in pretty good shape if they can afford to keep a few billion tax payer dollars in the bank rather than giving it back to those of us who over paid
Read the article that Pak posted.
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Read the article that Pak posted.
Hahahhahahaha
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I don't believe you understand the foxcon project at all and no surprise it's been revised quite beautifully by you guys.
Scott walker had it set up such that foxconn would get no money unless they met certain hiring prerequisites, etc etc well , they never did under walker and did not get paid a dime. Uncle Tony however renegotiated the deal to lower the bar for foxconn
"it’s first worth noting that Wisconsin has not yet given Foxconn any money."
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/apr/30/tony-evers/gov-tony-evers-doesnt-tell-whole-story-claim-new-f/
Microsoft would have never considered the mount pleasant area if not for it having been developed to promote/attract companies like foxconn
I know you won’t listen to any of us Commies but you might want to read Goose’s comment 5x.
Walker and your hero were duped. It was at best a nothingburger for Wisconsin and more like a shyte deal.
Thankfully, the big boys have entered the room.
As others have said, the football shouldn’t be spiked yet. But at least there’s a chance this time with Satya Nadella and Microsoft..
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Hahahhahahaha
leeeeko-
living up to your name removing all doubt
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I know you won’t listen to any of us Commies but you might want to read Goose’s comment 5x.
Walker and your hero were duped. It was at best a nothingburger for Wisconsin and more like a shyte deal.
Thankfully, the big boys have entered the room.
As others have said, the football shouldn’t be spiked yet. But at least there’s a chance this time with Satya Nadella and Microsoft..
no need to read it any more than once as it was quite clear and well written. goose and I talk often and his pov was one of the best on scoop in a long time
who are the "big boys"?
there are a lot of shysters out there
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no need to read it any more than once as it was quite clear and well written. goose and I talk often and his pov was one of the best on scoop in a long time
who are the "big boys"?
there are a lot of shysters out there
It’s beautiful. 9 out of 10
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no need to read it any more than once as it was quite clear and well written. goose and I talk often and his pov was one of the best on scoop in a long time
Yikes.
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Do you think Scott Walker’s a**hole tastes similarly to Scott Drew’s
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82
The big boys entered the room is correct, the MSFT big boys. That said, they could have sent middle management to handle this deal and get it closed quickly. If you think this is some Masters Class on biz by the D’s, I think you are exactly what you hate about R’s, which is allowing your dislike of the party cloud your judgement.
For the record, I think Walker fell victim to the party and was more a pawn than a dupe. Trump orchestrated the deal and he would have used MI or Ohio for this deal as easily as WI.
I have no idea how big the MSFT plan in WI goes, but I am 99% sure the D’s have the little idea as well. From my understanding, MSFT has turned down state and federal funding on this project because they do not want to share their plans with Uncle Sam. IMO, this could be the steal of the year for MSFT and the credit goes to them and not the state of WI or the D’s.
I thought Trump looked like a fool during the Foxconn deal and Biden looked the same to me yesterday during his visit. I will say at least Trump masterminded his deal and it fooled a lot of people. Biden has no idea on what is going on with MSFT other than talking points. Good news for him, the bar is so low for him that his supporters only want/need him to do is not fxxk his talking points.
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82
The big boys entered the room is correct, the MSFT big boys. That said, they could have sent middle management to handle this deal and get it closed quickly. If you think this is some Masters Class on biz by the D’s, I think you are exactly what you hate about R’s, which is allowing your dislike of the party cloud your judgement.
For the record, I think Walker fell victim to the party and was more a pawn than a dupe. Trump orchestrated the deal and he would have used MI or Ohio for this deal as easily as WI.
I have no idea how big the MSFT plan in WI goes, but I am 99% sure the D’s have the little idea as well. From my understanding, MSFT has turned down state and federal funding on this project because they do not want to share their plans with Uncle Sam. IMO, this could be the steal of the year for MSFT and the credit goes to them and not the state of WI or the D’s.
I thought Trump looked like a fool during the Foxconn deal and Biden looked the same to me yesterday during his visit. I will say at least Trump masterminded his deal and it fooled a lot of people. Biden has no idea on what is going on with MSFT other than talking points. Good news for him, the bar is so low for him that his supporters only want/need him to do is not fxxk his talking points.
Glad to see those talks with rocket are having an impact.
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82
The big boys entered the room is correct, the MSFT big boys. That said, they could have sent middle management to handle this deal and get it closed quickly. If you think this is some Masters Class on biz by the D’s, I think you are exactly what you hate about R’s, which is allowing your dislike of the party cloud your judgement.
For the record, I think Walker fell victim to the party and was more a pawn than a dupe. Trump orchestrated the deal and he would have used MI or Ohio for this deal as easily as WI.
I have no idea how big the MSFT plan in WI goes, but I am 99% sure the D’s have the little idea as well. From my understanding, MSFT has turned down state and federal funding on this project because they do not want to share their plans with Uncle Sam. IMO, this could be the steal of the year for MSFT and the credit goes to them and not the state of WI or the D’s.
I thought Trump looked like a fool during the Foxconn deal and Biden looked the same to me yesterday during his visit. I will say at least Trump masterminded his deal and it fooled a lot of people. Biden has no idea on what is going on with MSFT other than talking points. Good news for him, the bar is so low for him that his supporters only want/need him to do is not fxxk his talking points.
By "big boys," I clearly was talking about Nadella/Microsoft - and that's exactly what I said in my post. I didn't mention Evers or any other D's, because I don't know how involved or uninvolved they were - and I doubt you know either.
Otherwise, Goose, you're offering lots of opinion - and that's OK, we all do it. Neither you nor I know how involved either Trump or Biden were in the respective plans - although if Trump was indeed the "mastermind," it again shows how just about everything he touches turns to shyte even as his cultists worship his godly genius.
To me, both Trump and Biden appeared to have used the situations purely as ways to score political points. Biden was obviously loving the opportunity to troll Trump. This situation at least has a chance to succeed because of Nadella/Microsoft's involvement.
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82
Not that I have crazy inside info, but I have two very good friends that were part of the consulting/planning on the Foxconn deal. I heard enough to form a pretty solid opinion on the deal. That said, you are correct I am sharing my opinion.
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82
Not that I have crazy inside info, but I have two very good friends that were part of the consulting/planning on the Foxconn deal. I heard enough to form a pretty solid opinion on the deal. That said, you are correct I am sharing my opinion.
I hope you mock them mercilessly for the rest of their lives for being involved in that boondoggle. They're probably the only people that made money out of that deal, though.
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goose-
thank you for the clarity! knowing you and how you've done business in that part of the globe, I completely respect your point of view.
correct me if i'm wrong however-regardless of whatever deal was struck with foxconn, my understanding is foxconn got the land and infrastructure to locate on BUT would not realize any thing unless they met certain hiring criteria...which they did not
yes, wisconsin was sitting on a big piece of land all set up for business, great access to the freeway and proximity to milwaukee, madison and chicago
tell me what's wrong with that except the fact that they do not have the tenant they expected? now a company such as microsoft comes along and goes-hey, the table is set here
maybe not the way many wanted it to be, but the investment in infrastructure will pay off
hell if it's money they could've used elsewhere? this state should be in pretty good shape if they can afford to keep a few billion tax payer dollars in the bank rather than giving it back to those of us who over paid
Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
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Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
Pretty brain dead take here.
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Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
Wisconsin taxpayers have paid more than $1 billion to create an infrastructure for which, they were promised, would bring them at least 13,000 permanent jobs.
Instead, they're getting a couple thousand temporary construction jobs and about 2,000 permanent gigs. The economic benefits of those jobs will never come close to matching the taxpayers' investment.
The people of Wisconsin were ripped off.
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Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
Good lord, you’re an idiot
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Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
There has been harm.
And Wisconsin was getting increasingly better for business long before Foxconn.
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Rocket :
You are correct the investment in infrastructure is sound.
In large scale real estate developments, which is essentially what this was, often times it’s the second or even third owner who makes out best .
I take out the noise from politics . What Wisconsin did was create the foundation to compete on a National/Global level for projects . If it took a Foxconn to get the ball rolling in at The State level so be it . No harm no foul.
Absurd. Had Foxconn been brokered by Evers/Biden and had the exact results that happened happened, you'd be rising from the dead to proclaim it an excellent failure that hurt Wisconsin excellently, and the dentists would be waxing poetic about ice cream and diapers.
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Back to the Disney economy.
Conveniently, I'm (stuck ) in the Orlando airport for a few hours today. I can't speak the the stress level of these travelers, but the Mickey machine seems to be operating fine
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Back to the Disney economy.
Conveniently, I'm (stuck ) in the Orlando airport for a few hours today. I can't speak the the stress level of these travelers, but the Mickey machine seems to be operating fine
I think their parks are the most profitable, but they've been gouging their fanatics for years at the park. There is bound to be some burnout with them soon, not to mention that Universal has a new park in Orlando opening up next year. That will bite into them quite a bit.
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I think their parks are the most profitable, but they've been gouging their fanatics for years at the park. There is bound to be some burnout with them soon, not to mention that Universal has a new park in Orlando opening up next year. That will bite into them quite a bit.
We will finally have our revenge on the woke policies of Disney
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Absurd. Had Foxconn been brokered by Evers/Biden and had the exact results that happened happened, you'd be rising from the dead to proclaim it an excellent failure that hurt Wisconsin excellently, and the dentists would be waxing poetic about ice cream and diapers.
If one looks at the headlines and they all refer to a failed Foxconn project. Last I looked , Foxconn is the largest taxpayer in Racine County and employs over 1,000 and has spent close to a $1 Billion . So yes , while the scope of Foxconn project has gone down, it is still meaningful. Also , every sensible person at the time commented ( especially on Scoop where I get most of my news)that it was unlikely that the full scope of Foxconns project would ever be realized and that is was mostly hype.
Now Microsoft is coming in with a very large project. Which is diversification.
It takes time for all these developments to pay off.
Has made our corporation think that maybe Southeast Wisconsin is possibly worth investing in. Talent pool we would need would be available. I am confident there are, secondary type employers others who might be willing to give Wisconsin a second chance.
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Foxconn made a bunch of promises, kept none of them, and still took big incentives from the state.
The state also made millions of dollars in infrastructure improvements to land the project; it's not a bottomless well - the state could have used that money for desperately needed projects elsewhere. Additionally, Foxconn was allowed to clear land by pushing people out of their homes, and the state diverted water from Lake Michigan to support the factory.
For years, Foxconn continued lying about the scope of the project until it became obvious that it was mostly a Foxconn Con.
It was government choosing winners ... and this particular winner turned out to be a loser for the state - not "the eighth wonder of the world" about which the charlatan running the White House bloviated.
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rocky
Thanks for the Disney update. Hope you are delayed several days and can check out the parks.
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Pretty brain dead take here.
coming from you guys who've never owned a business, i'll take this as a win
Herman is one of the few here who understands what has happened. it may not have been planned this way, but good things will continue to come of it.
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coming from you guys who've never owned a business, i'll take this as a win
Herman is one of the few here who understands what has happened. it may not have been planned this way, but good things will continue to come of it.
No he’s not. He’s an idiot. Maybe a bigger idiot than you
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The Walt Disney Co. reported Q2 financials on May 7. The company's Experiences segment had revenue of about $8.4 billion in the quarter - 10% growth year-over-year. The segment had earnings of about $2.3 billion - 12% growth year-over-year. Margin expansion for the segment improved 60 basis points vs. the prior year. As part of its presentation, the company said: "We continue to expect robust operating income growth at Experiences for the full year."
The Experiences segment includes all the Disney parks, as well as its cruise line.
It's doing quite well.
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coming from you guys who've never owned a business, i'll take this as a win
Herman is one of the few here who understands what has happened. it may not have been planned this way, but good things will continue to come of it.
I think you've forgotten something.
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82
Do you know the driving factor on the revenue growth? Was it due to 10% more visitors or higher prices? I am seriously asking because it is hard not to have higher revenues is prices are up 10% or more.
This is not a gotcha question, too lazy to look and thought you would know.
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I think you've forgotten something.
It’s such a rousing success and is being developed like planned by Governor DeWalker and Boss Vos, both were present this week to partake in the announcement by the current governor and President.
Republicans are running on its success this fall across the region.
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Here is the actual Microsoft Press Release. This is an outstanding development for the State of Wisconsin.
https://news.microsoft.com/2024/05/08/microsoft-announces-3-3-billion-investment-in-wisconsin-to-spur-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-economic-growth/
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Here is the actual Microsoft Press Release. This is an outstanding development for the State of Wisconsin.
https://news.microsoft.com/2024/05/08/microsoft-announces-3-3-billion-investment-in-wisconsin-to-spur-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-economic-growth/
No better analysis than a press release.
Data centers are warehouses with fewer trucks and workers.
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I think you've forgotten something.
I’ve never been given a pre-established business either
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Here is the actual Microsoft Press Release. This is an outstanding development for the State of Wisconsin.
https://news.microsoft.com/2024/05/08/microsoft-announces-3-3-billion-investment-in-wisconsin-to-spur-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-economic-growth/
I get this herman-microsoft wouldn't have given us a sniff without that business park laid out
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I’ve never been given a pre-established business either
what? so you could just run it into the ground?
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No better analysis than a press release.
Data centers are warehouses with fewer trucks and workers.
There is lots of training and skills development here, not to mention sustainable energy to power the whole complex. This is a huge win for The State.
It shows the power of being in a battle ground state. First the infrastructure and now someone extremely legitimate comes in.
It is a competitive market. We had multiple states bidding on a project we had that was relatively small in the greater scheme of things( 200,000 square feet and about 150 jobs when fully up and running).
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There is lots of training and skills development here, not to mention sustainable energy to power the whole complex. This is a huge win for The State.
It shows the power of being in a battle ground state. First the infrastructure and now someone extremely legitimate comes in.
It is a competitive market. We had multiple states bidding on a project we had that was relatively small in the greater scheme of things( 200,000 square feet and about 150 jobs when fully up and running).
I mean yeah. It’s better that it’s here than elsewhere.
But that’s a lot different than saying this makes the Foxconn nonsense with the cost.
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There is lots of training and skills development here, not to mention sustainable energy to power the whole complex. This is a huge win for The State.
It shows the power of being in a battle ground state. First the infrastructure and now someone extremely legitimate comes in.
It is a competitive market. We had multiple states bidding on a project we had that was relatively small in the greater scheme of things( 200,000 square feet and about 150 jobs when fully up and running).
Microsoft is investing $500 million in data center projects in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, about 70 miles from Mount Pleasant. The state didn't give them the land or build them roads. Cook County isn't building them water or sewer infrastructure. Nobody promised any tax credits.
Illinois isn't a battleground state.
I'll put this to you simply.
Between what Foxconn has done and Microsoft is promising, these projects are expected to create less than 3,200 jobs.
Wisconsin taxpayers have spent $1 billion so far to land those projects.
That's $312,500 per job.
And you guys think that's a great deal for the state? Oof.
Of course, its usually the people who think like that who cry loudest about a young worker getting $10,000 in student debt forgiven or a few more weeks of unemployment benefits.
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what? so you could just run it into the ground?
Dunno, I wouldn’t know. I pulled myself by my bootstraps
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The dome at Foxconn has seen less activity than a married man
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82
Do you know the driving factor on the revenue growth? Was it due to 10% more visitors or higher prices? I am seriously asking because it is hard not to have higher revenues is prices are up 10% or more.
This is not a gotcha question, too lazy to look and thought you would know.
The most recent data I could find quickly - and I'm not about to spend significant time on it to find more - shows this annual attendance at Disneyland and Disney World through 2022:
https://queue-times.com/en-US/parks/16/attendances
https://queue-times.com/en-US/parks/6/attendances
In each case, attendance rose steadily for years, obviously fell off a cliff in 2020 due to Covid, began climbing again in 2021, and by 2022 was back to a couple/few million of where it had been pre-Covid. I don't have 2023 or so-far-2024 figures, but asked a question about park attendance during the earnings call, CEO Bob Iger said:
"In terms of attendance, look, what we're basically communicating is relative to the post-COVID highs, things are tending to normalize. The Parks business did 10% growth in the quarter. And obviously, that's an extremely high revenue number. That said, we still see in -- the bookings that we look ahead towards indicate healthy growth in the business. So, we still certainly feel-good about the opportunities for continued strong growth."
It's safe to say is that tens of millions of people pay big money to those two American parks every year and to and sail on Disney cruises, and significantly more than that do the same around the world.
Iger wishes the rest of Disney's business was on as sound footing as the Experiences segment is.
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Microsoft is investing $500 million in data center projects in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, about 70 miles from Mount Pleasant. The state didn't give them the land or build them roads. Cook County isn't building them water or sewer infrastructure. Nobody promised any tax credits.
Illinois isn't a battleground state.
I'll put this to you simply.
Between what Foxconn has done and Microsoft is promising, these projects are expected to create less than 3,200 jobs.
Wisconsin taxpayers have spent $1 billion so far to land those projects.
That's $312,500 per job.
And you guys think that's a great deal for the state? Oof.
Of course, its usually the people who think like that who cry loudest about a young worker getting $10,000 in student debt forgiven or a few more weeks of unemployment benefits.
Like most things, Herm doesn’t have a clue about which he speaks
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Microsoft is investing $500 million in data center projects in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, about 70 miles from Mount Pleasant. The state didn't give them the land or build them roads. Cook County isn't building them water or sewer infrastructure. Nobody promised any tax credits.
Illinois isn't a battleground state.
I'll put this to you simply.
Between what Foxconn has done and Microsoft is promising, these projects are expected to create less than 3,200 jobs.
Wisconsin taxpayers have spent $1 billion so far to land those projects.
That's $312,500 per job.
And you guys think that's a great deal for the state? Oof.
Of course, its usually the people who think like that who cry loudest about a young worker getting $10,000 in student debt forgiven or a few more weeks of unemployment benefits.
It's called making lemonade out of lemons. It's not just the 3200 jobs, though Pakuni.
- Microsoft's initial pledge was to add $1 billion in taxable property value in just the first, two-building phase of construction. It's now $3.3 billion but that still only represents a portion of what Microsoft is likely to build in the future.
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It's called making lemonade out of lemons. It's not just the 3200 jobs, though Pakuni.
- Microsoft's initial pledge was to add $1 billion in taxable property value in just the first, two-building phase of construction. It's now $3.3 billion but that still only represents a portion of what Microsoft is likely to build in the future.
Right. But it doesn’t make the initial Foxconn nonsense worth it.
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Right. But it doesn’t make the initial Foxconn nonsense worth it.
Foxconn was a boondoggle and financial disaster. A complete and utter failure. Spinning it any other way is wrong.
Ron Walker and Orange Turd didn’t spend billions to build a business park. They spent it in a foolhardy attempt to bring in a company with a history of stiffing communities and partners. Alarm signs were sounding the day it was announced.
Not a single person in favor of this deal and the billions it cost sold it as a commercial development property for future investors because no one is spending that kind of capital hoping to one day attract Microsoft.
A simple history search of the history of this boondoggle illuminates this, but yes, fake news blah blah blah.
As I said earlier, if this was vindication for the rotten deal, there’d be crowing from the people that got swindled. There isn’t because they got saved by political opponents.
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman. I have never met Herman, but his business insight has been outstanding over the years. He has provided big picture insight based off of his remarkable career and I have found it to be the best on scoop. In addition, his dedication to MU is obvious and I am thankful that he takes time to post on scoop. I am sure he has far bigger things in his business life to do over posting on scoop.
#thanksherman
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman. I have never met Herman, but his business insight has been outstanding over the years. He has provided big picture insight based off of his remarkable career and I have found it to be the best on scoop. In addition, his dedication to MU is obvious and I am thankful that he takes time to post on scoop. I am sure he has far bigger things in his business life to do over posting on scoop.
#thanksherman
You're talking about the same poster who states he gets young women intentionally drunk so that he can have unprotected sex with them?
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I believe Herman is the gold standard for business and economic insight on scoop. In addition, I wish MU had a lot more supporters of the program like Herm. He brings insight that I do not believe any of us can truly relate to because of his real-life experiences. I throw out opinions, like 82 noted, but Herman throws down facts!!!
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman. I have never met Herman, but his business insight has been outstanding over the years. He has provided big picture insight based off of his remarkable career and I have found it to be the best on scoop. In addition, his dedication to MU is obvious and I am thankful that he takes time to post on scoop. I am sure he has far bigger things in his business life to do over posting on scoop.
#thanksherman
Pretty sure Herman is nothing but a troll. But I’m sure he’s glad that you’re his friend.
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Fluff
I have never met or spoken with Herman. I would not say he is friend of mine, just someone that I respect his body of work and dedication to Marquette. To be honest, I do not think Herman thinks of me as a friend and may think I am a troll.
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Could be. He might actually be all he represents himself to be. But this is the guy who takes time out of his day to post Sam Hauser’s daily stats and link to a few newspaper articles without offering any sort of insight, so I doubt it.
But he is clearly wrong in this case.
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You're talking about the same poster who states he gets young women intentionally drunk so that he can have unprotected sex with them?
Yeah, he’s a dirtbag, liar and continuously wrong about everything but sure, he has tremendous insight
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Rico
Have you read his biz posts over the years that details his career? I would not diminish his words based off his Hauser updates. Guys like Fluff do that, smart guys listen to smarter people.
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Rico
Have you read his biz posts over the years that details his career? I would not diminish his words based off his Hauser updates. Guys like Fluff do that, smart guys listen to smarter people.
No his activity here makes me believe his entire persona is fiction.
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Fluff,
Who knows, maybe he is a big swinging dick and does not want us to know his true identity?
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Fluff,
Who knows, maybe he is a big swinging dick and does not want us to know his true identity?
At least you are impressed with him. And in the end, that’s what counts.
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It is hard not to be impressed with Herman. Try and take the bias away and read his posts on his career and business in general.
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman. I have never met Herman, but his business insight has been outstanding over the years. He has provided big picture insight based off of his remarkable career and I have found it to be the best on scoop. In addition, his dedication to MU is obvious and I am thankful that he takes time to post on scoop. I am sure he has far bigger things in his business life to do over posting on scoop.
#thanksherman
I think you need to reread his posts homie, he is routinely very wrong.
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It is hard not to be impressed with Herman. Try and take the bias away and read his posts on his career and business in general.
“This guy may have made up everything, but man is he impressive!”
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Fluff
How do you know he made everything up? Examples?
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Fluff
How do you know he made everything up? Examples?
I never said I “knew” he made up everything. But he is either a completely fake troll or he is who he is and is just wrong a lot.
But glad you are impressed with him either way.
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Fluff
He is in good company. I am impressed by you. You are person that is an expert on all topics on scoop, not afraid to comment on anyone's point of view, obviously dedicated based off your number of posts and literally do not care what anyone thinks of you. To be honest, that is impressive.
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Fluff
He is in good company. I am impressed by you. You are person that is an expert on all topics on scoop, not afraid to comment on anyone's point of view, obviously dedicated based off your number of posts and literally do not care what anyone thinks of you. To be honest, that is impressive.
Thanks. But considering how gullible you are, I don’t view that as much of a compliment.
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Fluff
He is in good company. I am impressed by you. You are person that is an expert on all topics on scoop, not afraid to comment on anyone's point of view, obviously dedicated based off your number of posts and literally do not care what anyone thinks of you. To be honest, that is impressive.
I don’t believe a thing he says. But at the end of the day, what I think really doesn’t matter
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Fluff
Have to admit, calling me gullible made me really laugh. You are the best!!!
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman.
Might have something to do with the fact that what he's written is easily proven wrong.
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Fluff
I have never met or spoken with Herman. I would not say he is friend of mine, just someone that I respect his body of work and dedication to Marquette. To be honest, I do not think Herman thinks of me as a friend and may think I am a troll.
His made up body of work?
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TAMU
Herm knows biz!!
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How 'bout that economy?
Unemployment near a multi-decade low, stock market near an all-time high, corporate earnings are mostly exceeding expectations, wages have been going up, inflation is well down from its peak.
Or as some Scoopers say: It's the worst economy ever, and complete doom is imminent.
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82
Should find out in November. This robust economy is probably a landslide for Joe, right?
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82
Should find out in November. This robust economy is probably a landslide for Joe, right?
Lies work. The majority of Rs believe Trump is responsible for the Infrastructure Act because almost every R who voted against it takes credit for any project in their state.
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Lies work. The majority of Rs believe Trump is responsible for the Infrastructure Act because almost every R who voted against it takes credit for any project in their state.
Actually, the majority of the Rs, the majority of the Is and a whole bunch of the Ds don’t like Joe’s handling of the economy and think it isn’t doing well for them. More than 2-1 negative when you add ‘em all up. They’d know better if they listened to all the brights on Scoop but alas…
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There is often a disconnect between how the economy is performing and how people feel about it. This isn’t new.
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Actually, the majority of the Rs, the majority of the Is and a whole bunch of the Ds don’t like Joe’s handling of the economy and think it isn’t doing well for them. More than 2-1 negative when you add ‘em all up. They’d know better if they listened to all the brights on Scoop but alas…
It’s hard to like the best economy in the world.
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I don’t believe a thing he says. But at the end of the day, what I think really doesn’t matter
Black meet kettle, aina?
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There is often a disconnect between how the economy is performing and how people feel about it. This isn’t new.
Right. Maybe people are doing great but just think they’re doing poorly. Just their imagination.
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It’s hard to like the best economy in the world.
Cleanest dirty shirt syndrome.
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Cleanest dirty shirt syndrome.
Global economy no matta?
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weekend's bidenomics has taken big bites out of his signature "infrastructure' plan. btw, how much infrastructure is actually in the "infrastructure bill?? no one will really know because the MSM continues to prop this dead guy up
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/17/democrats-shrinking-infrastructure-plan-00039588
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weekend's bidenomics has taken big bites out of his signature "infrastructure' plan. btw, how much infrastructure is actually in the "infrastructure bill?? no one will really know because the MSM continues to prop this dead guy up
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/17/democrats-shrinking-infrastructure-plan-00039588
Uhhh, I have pretty good rocket decoder , but even this one is a stumper, coupled with 2022 source
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Uhhh, I have pretty good rocket decoder , but even this one is a stumper, coupled with 2022 source
Thanks to muscoop, I recommend to all my friends, they verify their dentist didn’t graduate from Marquette.
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Thanks to muscoop, I recommend to all my friends, they verify their dentist didn’t graduate from Marquette.
both of them ey?
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both of them ey?
Every person saved from a Marquette dentist is a celebration
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Uhhh, I have pretty good rocket decoder , but even this one is a stumper, coupled with 2022 source
read inflation reinks...it has cost more to undertake all these ambitious projects. the cost of EVERYTHING has gone up. fuel, labor, materials, interest rates, etc etc. with inflation up fill in the blank %, his multi trillion $ doesn't go as far, right?
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Every person saved from a Marquette dentist is a celebration
put a bill board up if it will make you feel better
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Every person saved from a Marquette dentist is a celebration
Jealousy is a terrible torture, aina?
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Uhhh, I have pretty good rocket decoder , but even this one is a stumper, coupled with 2022 source
Nothing on the local news about a gas leak in East Troy so we can rule that one out
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Right. Maybe people are doing great but just think they’re doing poorly. Just their imagination.
Never said that.
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Fluff
I am happy to see you could straighten Lenny out with that hard hitting post at 1am. Hopefully you were able to get some rest after sending it. I hope Lenny knows you mean business and you are ready to correct him 24/7.
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Fluff
I am happy to see you could straighten Lenny out with that hard hitting post at 1am. Hopefully you were able to get some rest after sending it. I hope Lenny knows you mean business and you are ready to correct him 24/7.
You should tell your friend to stop lying.
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In reading this thread I am surprised on the backlash for Herman. I have never met Herman, but his business insight has been outstanding over the years. He has provided big picture insight based off of his remarkable career and I have found it to be the best on scoop. In addition, his dedication to MU is obvious and I am thankful that he takes time to post on scoop. I am sure he has far bigger things in his business life to do over posting on scoop.
#thanksherman
LOL. Yes, sometimes he forgoes his lunches with Jamie Dimon in order to post more links from the NY Post, that's how much he loves MU.
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Fluff
I do not believe my friend said that you were saying that. He offered up a comment, but I am sure you are right.
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This discussion is the same as the one on guns. Rs don’t want laws because they won’t stop every shooting.
Lenny and Rs don’t like one of the best economies in history because it hasn’t helped every single person.
WPW - white people whining.
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This discussion is the same as the one on guns. Rs don’t want laws because they won’t stop every shooting.
Lenny and Rs don’t like one of the best economies in history because it hasn’t helped every single person.
WPW - white people whining.
Jockey
Personally, I don’t mind the economy even a little. Things have worked out better than I could have hoped and I’m grateful.
However, when 67% of the country thinks otherwise I think you’re being myopic to attribute the dissatisfaction to white people whining.
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Jockey
Personally, I don’t mind the economy even a little. Things have worked out better than I could have hoped and I’m grateful.
However, when 67% of the country thinks otherwise I think you’re being myopic to attribute the dissatisfaction to white people whining.
I was told facts aren't supposed to care about feelings. Is that no longer the mantra?
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I was told facts aren't supposed to care about feelings. Is that no longer the mantra?
The feelings aren’t without facts behind them. Mortgage rates are have almost tripled, home prices and rents are through the roof, gas at the pump has doubled and a McDonald’s meal that cost $6 a few years ago now costs around $15. And our debt has soared. Etc., etc., etc.
You and the administration may dismiss all of this (and more) and claim that all is seashells and balloons re the economy but the vast majority of the people are calling BS. They trust themselves to judge whether they’re better off now than they were BJ (Before Joe). You evidently don’t think average Americans are capable of making that determination. I disagree with you.
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Objectively more people are employed and are making more money even when inflation is taken into consideration than in November of 2020.
I think the subjective feelings around prices are impacting people more than the feelings around income.
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Objectively more people are employed and are making more money even when inflation is taken into consideration than in November of 2020.
I think the subjective feelings around prices are impacting people more than the feelings around income.
Objectively the economy was pretty much shut down in November of 2020.
I think that makes whatever point you were trying to make meaningless.
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The feelings aren’t without facts behind them. Mortgage rates are have almost tripled, home prices and rents are through the roof, gas at the pump has doubled and a McDonald’s meal that cost $6 a few years ago now costs around $15. And our debt has soared. Etc., etc., etc.
Cherry picking data is no way to give an accurate picture of the economy, Lenny.
1. This is true.
2. Median home prices have fallen about 12.5% the past two years.
3. Median rents also are down over the past two years.
4. Gas prices have only doubled when you compare it to the lows of the pandemic, which is an interesting point for you to choose given your earlier response to Fluffy (guess your point is meaningless, huh?). And a period, as we all know, of great economic prosperity. (Food for thought ... maybe gas prices aren't an indicator of economic splendor). They were $2.80 a gallon in April 2019; $3.60 in April 2024.
5. No, the price of a McDonald's meal hasn't grown 150% in the past few years.
6. Debt is virtually meaningless as an economic indicator. But given your concern, do you agree that the way to address the national debt is the only way it's been done successfully for 50+ years?
You and the administration may dismiss all of this (and more) and claim that all is seashells and balloons re the economy but the vast majority of the people are calling BS. They trust themselves to judge whether they’re better off now than they were BJ (Before Joe). You evidently don’t think average Americans are capable of making that determination. I disagree with you.
Lenny, hero of the common man.
Sorry, I stick to facts and data.
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Objectively the economy was pretty much shut down in November of 2020.
I think that makes whatever point you were trying to make meaningless.
Oh.
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https://www.newsweek.com/richest-americans-pay-less-tax-working-class-1897047
Richest Americans Now Pay Less Tax* Than Working Class in Historical First
*As percentage of income
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I love you Lenny. Maybe a top 10 scoop guy. But a retired CBOE guy portraying a "man of the people" these days just doesn't play.
Glad you've got the time now to post here more 🙂
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Where do I rank, kin, hey?
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Where do I rank, kin, hey?
A chance at the table. In today. Tbd
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Rocky
We seldom agree but Lenny is a top ten scoop guy. To be honest, I give you credit for acknowledging that Lenny is a big part of scoop.
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4ever
Sadly for most on scoop, but if not for you, I would never be here. I probably bring your rating down. IMO, you and Lenny have set the bar of excellence on scoop.
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Goose, you're too kind. Oh, your check is in da mail, hey?
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4ever,
Fxxk the check, keep pissing people off.
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I love you Lenny. Maybe a top 10 scoop guy. But a retired CBOE guy portraying a "man of the people" these days just doesn't play.
Glad you've got the time now to post here more 🙂
Love you too Rocky, thanks for the kind words.
And as I readily admitted, the economy has been good for me the past several years. But not for many. And I feel for those people. I wasn’t aware that my former profession disqualified me from those feelings but there you go.
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Love you too Rocky, thanks for the kind words.
And as I readily admitted, the economy has been good for me the past several years. But not for many. And I feel for those people. I wasn’t aware that my former profession disqualified me from those feelings but there you go.
I don't disqualify you. Though I suspect your sources these days is limited...
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4ever,
Fxxk the check, keep pissing people off.
Will do! Push back is my middle name, aina?
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Rocky
To be honest, the best part about Lenny is that he has not forgotten his sources. I would guess that he is more connected with reality than most on scoop. He just might still be friends with bartenders, guys that place a bet or guys that are scraping by. That might be what some on here are missing.
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Lenny, hero of the common man.
Thanks, Pak. Maybe I’ll throw my hat in the ring.
How does “Nicer than Trump, Smarter than Biden, Younger than Both” strike you?
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How does “Nicer than Trump, Smarter than Biden, Younger than Both” strike you?
I'd 100% vote Lenny.
Get yourself on the CO ballot!
P.S. - Lenny with verifiable data is a force
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Thanks, Pak. Maybe I’ll throw my hat in the ring.
How does “Nicer than Trump, Smarter than Biden, Younger than Both” strike you?
You had me at "Nicer than Trump."
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How does “Nicer than Trump, Smarter than Biden, Younger than Both” strike you?
Don't sell yourself short, my friend. You're also smarter and more honest than Trump, and not a racist or antisemite like he is, either.
You've got my vote!
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Love you too Rocky, thanks for the kind words.
And as I readily admitted, the economy has been good for me the past several years. But not for many. And I feel for those people. I wasn’t aware that my former profession disqualified me from those feelings but there you go.
Lenny :
Do you remember the day Seka showed up on the floor of The CBOE?
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Lenny :
Do you remember the day Seka showed up on the floor of The CBOE?
Did you try and get her drunk to sleep with her?
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Who is ready for GameStop round 2? 💎🙏
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You had me at "Nicer than Trump."
Isn’t that almost everyone?
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Lenny :
Do you remember the day Seka showed up on the floor of The CBOE?
Absolutely. At the time, she was dating (and supposedly engaged to) Willy Montgomery, a Chicago Corp broker and the stepson of Jack Wing.
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Isn’t that almost everyone?
Yep. Almost everyone applies in all three cases. Pretty sorry state we’re in, hey?
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From Yahoo Finance:
With 92% of the S&P 500 done reporting first quarter earnings, the index is pacing for its highest year-over-year earnings growth since the second quarter of 2022.
As of Friday afternoon the S&P 500 is on pace for earnings growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, notably above the 3.2% expected entering bank earnings in early April.
FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters points out that the index is actually doing even better when removing a massive earnings miss from just one company. Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY) reported a first quarter loss, dragging down the S&P 500's total performance this quarter.
Excluding the healthcare company, the S&P 500 is pacing for 8.3% growth, per Butters.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/high-rent-costs-renters-rental-housing-market-affordability-income-prices-2024-5?utm_source=reddit.com
Renters need to make 36% more than in pre-COVID years to afford today's average rent, Zillow says
US average rent rose to just under $2,000 per month in April, Zillow reports.
Tenants now need to earn 36% more than they did in 2019 to afford a typical rent.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/high-rent-costs-renters-rental-housing-market-affordability-income-prices-2024-5?utm_source=reddit.com
Yep we need to build more housing in desirable areas. Small towns are dying, globally, as people continue to flock to major metro areas to participate in the new economy.
Too bad people aren't willing to live in small towns anymore, but there are no jobs there and the Internet sucks so why bother? It would take the pressure off of major metro area rent prices tho
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Wait, I thought cities were being abandoned.
What you say is true, though. Drive 30-40 minutes farther out to the dying
little small towns and you can find affordable housing. Then you have to face the commute and small town schools.
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Yep we need to build more housing in desirable areas. Small towns are dying, globally, as people continue to flock to major metro areas to participate in the new economy.
Too bad people aren't willing to live in small towns anymore, but there are no jobs there and the Internet sucks so why bother? It would take the pressure off of major metro area rent prices tho
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/record-wave-of-americans-fled-big-cities-for-small-ones-in-2023
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None of this is new.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/record-wave-of-americans-fled-big-cities-for-small-ones-in-2023
"small towns and rural areas, which Lombard defines as metropolitan areas with 250,000 people or fewer"
Silly
Congratulations to Madison, WI on graduating from being a Small Town just a few years ago, they just made it over that 250k bar in 2015.
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"small towns and rural areas, which Lombard defines as metropolitan areas with 250,000 people or fewer"
Silly
Congratulations to Madison, WI on graduating from being a Small Town just a few years ago, they just made it over that 250k bar in 2015.
Madison Metropolitan Area hit 250K in 1991.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23058/madison/population (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23058/madison/population)
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/record-wave-of-americans-fled-big-cities-for-small-ones-in-2023
According to this, the metropolitan area of Appleton is counted the same as a rural area. And to me, that's not really a great definition. Appleton has all sorts of nice amenities that larger cities have, and are much more affordable in the process.
I think what tower was talking about were even smaller cities and villages that lay outside of any metropolitan area.
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Madison Metropolitan Area hit 250K in 1991.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23058/madison/population (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23058/madison/population)
You're right, I looked up the city population
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How large must a town be before I can safely try that?
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According to this, the metropolitan area of Appleton is counted the same as a rural area. And to me, that's not really a great definition. Appleton has all sorts of nice amenities that larger cities have, and are much more affordable in the process.
I think what tower was talking about were even smaller cities and villages that lay outside of any metropolitan area.
Appleton is considered part of the Fox Cities Metropolitan Area, with a population of over 400K- according to google.
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Wait, I thought cities were being abandoned.
What you say is true, though. Drive 30-40 minutes farther out to the dying
little small towns and you can find affordable housing. Then you have to face the commute and small town schools.
Painting with a wide brush there Tower. There are some very good rural schools.
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I think what tower was talking about were even smaller cities and villages that lay outside of any metropolitan area.
Yes. Those villages of 100 people that have been passed by. It is a choice, and not for everyone. Multiple children of close friends have given it a try.
Law dog, you are correct. And there are bad ones.
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Appleton is considered part of the Fox Cities Metropolitan Area, with a population of over 400K- according to google.
No, the Appleton Metropolitan Statistical Area it is part of the Fox Cities Combined Statistical Area. Those are two different things. The article refers to "metro area" without defining it that I can tell.
Regardless, Hilton Head is also a metropolitan area of less than 250,000 that isn't part of a CSA. So is Topeka, KS and Bellingham, WA. None of those are rural areas.
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Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.
Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.
Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.
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That's a real interesting post, Ska. Sad, but interesting.
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Great post, Ska
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Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.
Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.
Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.
Bang on.
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Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.
Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.
Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.
I think there is also this dueling incongruent set of housing cost arguments. You have a this 25-35 demo who is like "I don't want to/wont work in an office anymore" and insists that they will only consider WFH roles. But they also are the ones who often claim they will never be able to afford/own a house, despite seeking out roles where they can in theory live anywhere.
Its like there is this trend of "I want WFH so I don't have to live in an insanely expensive city like NYC/SF/LA"...but I don't want to be small town/rural/farther suburbs. And I don't necessarily blame that demo for not wanting to live in the sticks, but at least have to acknowledge the clashing of the mentalities.
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I think there is also this dueling incongruent set of housing cost arguments. You have a this 25-35 demo who is like "I don't want to/wont work in an office anymore" and insists that they will only consider WFH roles. But they also are the ones who often claim they will never be able to afford/own a house, despite seeking out roles where they can in theory live anywhere.
Its like there is this trend of "I want WFH so I don't have to live in an insanely expensive city like NYC/SF/LA"...but I don't want to be small town/rural/farther suburbs. And I don't necessarily blame that demo for not wanting to live in the sticks, but at least have to acknowledge the clashing of the mentalities.
I agree with part of your point but disagree that it's incongruous.
People want to live by things that enrich their lives. I WFH but I can walk to michelin starred restaurants, wonderful parks, a baseball stadium. I don't have to own a car (but haven't given it up yet) because we take public transit everywhere, can quickly get to top tier museums and theaters, etc.
Young people, IMO, are complaining that other cities aren't getting their crap together on the public transit and density side of things. Unless you're in one of 3 neighborhoods in Milwaukee it feels like a suburb instead of a city because you have to drive most places. And Milwaukee is way better than Southern/Western cities that were founded more recently.
This is especially important with young people who many, for the first time in their lives, moved to a walkable city called a college campus. All of their friends were within walking distance, their job, their classes, the bars and restaurants. People love that stuff in college because it's wonderful. I live in walking distance from tons of friends it's great. And only semi-affordable for young people because density is decreasing in my neighborhood since people keep throwing up $3MM-$6MM single family homes.
I mean, my god, people spend tons of money every year to go to Disney just to live a week in a walkable neighborhood (albeit one with roller coasters or whatever).
It sucks you have to be rich to live a decent lifestyle, but I don't think it's incongrous to complain about. Why live 'anywhere' when instead you can live somewhere great?
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Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.
Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.
Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.
nm
not worth it
For those that are curious. Rural population has increased since 2020, rural housing purchases has outpaced urban. Farm values have increased.
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nm
not worth it
For those that are curious. Rural population has increased since 2020, rural housing purchases has outpaced urban. Farm values have increased.
That's technically true, but disingenuous. This is the best, most recent, data I can find from a reliable source
https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/february/net-migration-spurs-renewed-growth-in-rural-areas-of-the-united-states/
Net migration is positive for the first time in decades for a couple year period during covid, and it honestly barely moved the needle. And the telling quote from the article about how/where rural pop is growing:
> Most rural counties saw gains in population because of net domestic migration, with 481 growing by 2 percent or more during 2020–22. These counties are typically found on the periphery of large urban areas and in recreation and retirement destinations, such as the northern Great Lakes, the southern Appalachians and Ozarks, and the Rocky Mountains. Based on previous research, this increase in “amenity migration” (people choosing locations to live based on quality-of-life factors) is not surprising given that baby boomer retirement is reaching its peak and remote work is allowing more locational freedom for working-age adults.
I'm happy to be wrong, just prove it because I think I'm right.
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That's technically true, but disingenuous. This is the best, most recent, data I can find from a reliable source
https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/february/net-migration-spurs-renewed-growth-in-rural-areas-of-the-united-states/
Net migration is positive for the first time in DECADES for a couple year period during covid. And the telling quote
> Most rural counties saw gains in population because of net domestic migration, with 481 growing by 2 percent or more during 2020–22. These counties are typically found on the periphery of large urban areas and in recreation and retirement destinations, such as the northern Great Lakes, the southern Appalachians and Ozarks, and the Rocky Mountains. Based on previous research, this increase in “amenity migration” (people choosing locations to live based on quality-of-life factors) is not surprising given that baby boomer retirement is reaching its peak and remote work is allowing more locational freedom for working-age adults.
I'm happy to be wrong, just prove it because I think I'm right.
Its not disingenuous. The rural communities are not dying, just changing.
Your diatribe about anger which has no basis in facts tells more about you than it does the rural community.
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Its not disingenuous. The rural communities are not dying, just changing.
But aren't the ones growing most becoming exurbs? In which case... six and one half dozen the other?
The towns may not be dying, but their rural-ness is.
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I think the lesson here is that you really can't make sweeping generalizations about small towns. Many are obviously struggling, but many are growing and thriving. And many are just kinda hanging on.
We can certainly say that the population is growing less rural, and that makes perfect sense.
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I agree with part of your point but disagree that it's incongruous.
People want to live by things that enrich their lives. I WFH but I can walk to michelin starred restaurants, wonderful parks, a baseball stadium. I don't have to own a car (but haven't given it up yet) because we take public transit everywhere, can quickly get to top tier museums and theaters, etc.
Young people, IMO, are complaining that other cities aren't getting their crap together on the public transit and density side of things. Unless you're in one of 3 neighborhoods in Milwaukee it feels like a suburb instead of a city because you have to drive most places. And Milwaukee is way better than Southern/Western cities that were founded more recently.
This is especially important with young people who many, for the first time in their lives, moved to a walkable city called a college campus. All of their friends were within walking distance, their job, their classes, the bars and restaurants. People love that stuff in college because it's wonderful. I live in walking distance from tons of friends it's great. And only semi-affordable for young people because density is decreasing in my neighborhood since people keep throwing up $3MM-$6MM single family homes.
I mean, my god, people spend tons of money every year to go to Disney just to live a week in a walkable neighborhood (albeit one with roller coasters or whatever).
It sucks you have to be rich to live a decent lifestyle, but I don't think it's incongrous to complain about. Why live 'anywhere' when instead you can live somewhere great?
Its incongruous cause they should be old enough to be able to process that you have to sacrifice somethings for others. My younger sisters are 25 and 29, and they and their friends are right in the heart of what I'm talking about. The eldest moved with her husband to Richmond cause he got a good job offer and she's remote. They bought a solid starter house and are happy. They have friends in NJ/NY and DC that endlessly bitch about housing but refuse to move anywhere or change anything, and only 1-2 out of the dozen or so are actually location tied. I'm not saying move to Cheyenne or El Paso, but there is a world outside of 5 prominent metros.
The issue I have is when pressed, they never have a "ideal" of where it should be. Where they are getting a nice starter house for $300K in a walkable city. Its just baseless yelling or comparing to something they saw in study abroad in Europe without knowing any of the financials or cultural constraints there either.
We have a housing supply issue, but I truly wonder how many of the aforementioned people would be willing to accept what the reasonable supply solution would look like.
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Its incongruous cause they should be old enough to be able to process that you have to sacrifice somethings for others. My younger sisters are 25 and 29, and they and their friends are right in the heart of what I'm talking about. The eldest moved with her husband to Richmond cause he got a good job offer and she's remote. They bought a solid starter house and are happy. They have friends in NJ/NY and DC that endlessly bitch about housing but refuse to move anywhere or change anything, and only 1-2 out of the dozen or so are actually location tied. I'm not saying move to Cheyenne or El Paso, but there is a world outside of 5 prominent metros.
The issue I have is when pressed, they never have a "ideal" of where it should be. Where they are getting a nice starter house for $300K in a walkable city. Its just baseless yelling or comparing to something they saw in study abroad in Europe without knowing any of the financials or cultural constraints there either.
We have a housing supply issue, but I truly wonder how many of the aforementioned people would be willing to accept what the reasonable supply solution would look like.
Yeah that makes sense, thanks for explaining. We have family/friends that are similar. My advice, "why don't you just move it's not that scary, and the place you're currently living will still be there in a year if you need to go back don't worry" has not been well received historically.
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Your diatribe about anger which has no basis in facts tells more about you than it does the rural community.
I don't think it's a diatribe but maybe I secretly hate my family, my wife's family, and my friends that live in rural areas. No matter how I feel, they're still angry as heck and because their communities are failing. All of them for the same reasons as above, all in different states. They talk about it openly at weddings and fish fries in their communities. It sucks when the only place left to shop is Dollar General, and they don't want to have to drive all the way to Madison for a half decent hospital. And they didn't want their post offices' closed.
I might be wrong, it's just a theory.
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I don't think it's a diatribe but maybe I secretly hate my family, my wife's family, and my friends that live in rural areas. No matter how I feel, they're still angry as heck and because their communities are failing. All of them for the same reasons as above, all in different states. They talk about it openly at weddings and fish fries in their communities. It sucks when the only place left to shop is Dollar General, and they don't want to have to drive all the way to Madison for a half decent hospital. And they didn't want their post offices' closed.
I might be wrong, it's just a theory.
There are angry and unhappy people everywhere. Kind and happy ones too. If your family and friends fall into the former nobody should blame you for hating them. Just don’t be naive enough to think they’d be any less angry and unhappy if they moved.
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There are angry and unhappy people everywhere. Kind and happy ones too. If your family and friends fall into the former nobody should blame you for hating them. Just don’t be naive enough to think they’d be any less angry and unhappy if they moved.
Being mad about a specific, tangible thing like your community (and many other communities like yours in the united states) failing does not make them angry unhappy people.
If they moved, they would potentially pick a community that's not failing. Which would solve one of their largest problems.
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While people might associate remote settings with peaceful landscapes and quiet lifestyles, rural residents experience more depression and anxiety than their urban counterparts, a new University of Houston study has found.
https://hri.uh.edu/news-events/rural-residents-are-more-depressed-and-anxious-those-urban-areas-uh-study-finds
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While people might associate remote settings with peaceful landscapes and quiet lifestyles, rural residents experience more depression and anxiety than their urban counterparts, a new University of Houston study has found.
https://hri.uh.edu/news-events/rural-residents-are-more-depressed-and-anxious-those-urban-areas-uh-study-finds
Ill see you that study and raise you this
https://www.psychiatry.org/news-room/apa-blogs/city-living-and-mental-well-being#:~:text=Living%20in%20urban%20areas%20has,linked%20to%20social%20stress%20processing. (https://www.psychiatry.org/news-room/apa-blogs/city-living-and-mental-well-being#:~:text=Living%20in%20urban%20areas%20has,linked%20to%20social%20stress%20processing.)
Living in urban areas has been associated with increased risk for mental disorders, including anxiety, depression and schizophrenia. Research using functional magnetic resonance imaging has identified changes in the brain indicating that urban upbringing and city living are linked to social stress processing.
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Ill see you that study and raise you this
https://www.psychiatry.org/news-room/apa-blogs/city-living-and-mental-well-being#:~:text=Living%20in%20urban%20areas%20has,linked%20to%20social%20stress%20processing. (https://www.psychiatry.org/news-room/apa-blogs/city-living-and-mental-well-being#:~:text=Living%20in%20urban%20areas%20has,linked%20to%20social%20stress%20processing.)
Living in urban areas has been associated with increased risk for mental disorders, including anxiety, depression and schizophrenia. Research using functional magnetic resonance imaging has identified changes in the brain indicating that urban upbringing and city living are linked to social stress processing.
That's not a peer-reviewed study.
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That's not a peer-reviewed study.
So
Theres numerous others out there
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While people might associate remote settings with peaceful landscapes and quiet lifestyles, rural residents experience more depression and anxiety than their urban counterparts, a new University of Houston study has found.
https://hri.uh.edu/news-events/rural-residents-are-more-depressed-and-anxious-those-urban-areas-uh-study-finds
What you sent does not back that up. In fact, it states:
It’s not so much that rural people have more mental health issues,” Bain said. “It’s that they don’t have the accessibility and availability of services.”
I'll agree to the lack of accessibility. But honestly, many people do not take advantage of the availability of mental health services.
Many actual medical studies show urban living is more detrimental to mental health, but I am sure you knew that.
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What you sent does not back that up. In fact, it states:
It’s not so much that rural people have more mental health issues,” Bain said. “It’s that they don’t have the accessibility and availability of services.”
I'll agree to the lack of accessibility. But honestly, many people do not take advantage of the availability of mental health services.
Many actual medical studies show urban living is more detrimental to mental health, but I am sure you knew that.
Way to cherry pick a single quote and ignore the data presented by the research.
You seem oddly over-invested in this. Have you actually ever lived in small-town America? I have. It's no picnic.
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Way to cherry pick a single quote and ignore the data presented by the research.
You seem oddly over-invested in this. Have you actually ever lived in small-town America? I have. It's no picnic.
Yes, I have.. Did it for over 10 years. When I retire, I will probably retire to Montana. It was a good experience. Sorry you had such a bad experience. Sounds like a you problem. Know-it-alls sometimes get ostracized in rural settings.
Here are some more:
https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/living-in-a-city#Constant-stimulation-from-city-living-can-take-a-big-toll-on-your-mental-health (https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/living-in-a-city#Constant-stimulation-from-city-living-can-take-a-big-toll-on-your-mental-health)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cns-spectrums/article/abs/urbanization-and-emerging-mental-health-issues/A458AD66F75A7A9711688B695043F9B2 (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cns-spectrums/article/abs/urbanization-and-emerging-mental-health-issues/A458AD66F75A7A9711688B695043F9B2)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrn3079 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nrn3079)
There's at least a hundred other studies out there. Many that have actually studied the brain, and not just some questions to a test group.
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Yes, I have.. Did it for over 10 years. When I retire, I will probably retire to Montana. It was a good experience. Sorry you had such a bad experience. Sounds like a you problem. Know-it-alls sometimes get ostracized in rural settings.
Here are some more:
https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/living-in-a-city#Constant-stimulation-from-city-living-can-take-a-big-toll-on-your-mental-health (https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/living-in-a-city#Constant-stimulation-from-city-living-can-take-a-big-toll-on-your-mental-health)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cns-spectrums/article/abs/urbanization-and-emerging-mental-health-issues/A458AD66F75A7A9711688B695043F9B2 (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cns-spectrums/article/abs/urbanization-and-emerging-mental-health-issues/A458AD66F75A7A9711688B695043F9B2)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrn3079 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nrn3079)
There's at least a hundred other studies out there. Many that have actually studied the brain, and not just some questions to a test group.
Might want to watch Yellowstone. Montana is pretty dangerous
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Might want to watch Yellowstone. Montana is pretty dangerous
Ha! True. All of the good property will be bought up by the Californians by the time I am ready to retire anyway.
https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/study-tracks-californians-moving-to-montana (https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/study-tracks-californians-moving-to-montana)
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Ha! True. All of the good property will be bought up by the Californians by the time I am ready to retire anyway.
https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/study-tracks-californians-moving-to-montana (https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/study-tracks-californians-moving-to-montana)
Tracks. Bringing the crime with them! SMDH
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Yes, I have.. Did it for over 10 years. When I retire, I will probably retire to Montana. It was a good experience. Sorry you had such a bad experience. Sounds like a you problem. Know-it-alls sometimes get ostracized in rural settings.
Golly. Touched a nerve, I guess.
Anyhow, I had a fine time in small-town America. Made some lifelong friends, got some good life and work experience, and was happy to leave.
Feel bad for those I left behind. Lack of career options. Shuttered factories. Vacant storefronts. Few dining/shopping options within an hour. Young people leaving in droves. Lots of poverty and substance abuse issues.
And the racism. Oh my, the racism. True story ... one town where I lived removed the basketball hoops from their central park because city leaders thought they were attracting too many black people.
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Golly. Touched a nerve, I guess.
Anyhow, I had a fine time in small-town America. Made some lifelong friends, got some good life and work experience, and was happy to leave.
Feel bad for those I left behind. Lack of career options. Shuttered factories. Vacant storefronts. Few dining/shopping options within an hour. Young people leaving in droves. Lots of poverty and substance abuse issues.
And the racism. Oh my, the racism. True story ... one town where I lived removed the basketball hoops from their central park because city leaders thought they were attracting too many black people.
Nice edit.
Yes, there's no poverty, substance abuse or racism in the urban areas.
You didn't touch a nerve.
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Nice edit.
Yes, there's no poverty, substance abuse or racism in the urban areas.
You didn't touch a nerve.
Thanks. I chose generosity.
And no, you're not at all touchy about this.
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Thanks. I chose generosity.
And no, you're not at all touchy about this.
Not the least bit.
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https://twitter.com/econliberties/status/1790467874374475935?t=P8Zf_KgzOvYugwQ2NGq_TQ&s=19
Ho hum. Another example of private collusion screwing everyday Americans.
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that can't be, it's un-American ...oh wait
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https://twitter.com/econliberties/status/1790467874374475935?t=P8Zf_KgzOvYugwQ2NGq_TQ&s=19
Ho hum. Another example of private collusion screwing everyday Americans.
I don't have access to this article but I would be curious to know how they are going to spin this.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/ftc-oil-prices-market-collusion-aa7f2de9 (https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/ftc-oil-prices-market-collusion-aa7f2de9)
Title:What’s So Bad About Fixing Oil Prices?
A U.S. oil CEO’s alleged collusion with OPEC isn’t as alarming or evil as it seems
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-years-ago-renters-needed-182321562.html
5 years ago renters needed to make less than $60,000 a year to afford the typical rent; now they need to make almost $80,000
Average US salary (based on Google results): $64,000
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In six months do you all believe that inflation will be flat, up, or down?
I'm expecting flat, but I figured I'd ask the experts.
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In six months do you all believe that inflation will be flat, up, or down?
I'm expecting flat, but I figured I'd ask the experts.
I’m expecting up, maybe not across the board, but led by fuel costs. That industry will do whatever they can to influence the election towards Rs and $4+ a gallon gas will go a long way towards that goal.
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No expert here. I'd guess flattish just because it makes sense to me that it will go neither up nor down much.
There was a new CPI report today, showing a very slight cooling to 3.4% in April. It's been in that range month after month, give or take a .1%, for awhile now, and I see no reason why there would be a greater variation, up or down, for the next 6 months. FWIW, crude oil is down about 1% today as I write this, but that's very volatile and who knows where it will go.
So I'm expressing no "confidence" either way, just trying to be pragmatic.
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FWIW, one of our larger clients who is someone I track closely for our biz, and the general economy, just requested canceling or pushing out delivery on orders scheduled to arrive the USA in Aug-October. They supply parts to the big AG guys and auto industry, and they normally extremely sharp on their forecasting. We have worked with this client since 2005 and this is the third time we have seen this type of request. The first time was in spring of 2008 and second time during the pandemic.
For the record, I am not saying this is doomsday on the economy by any stretch. Thought it was interesting because in the 19 years of working them only two times have suppliers not shipped them goods in a given month. Prior to these cancelations they have good shipped twelve months a year 16 out of the last 18 years. Will add, the request was made due to slowdowns with their customers.
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Bet on oil to spike.
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Bet on oil to spike.
Could happen.
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Not the least bit.
I thought this was all covered when we discussed Jason Aldean's 'Try That in a Small Town' song.
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FWIW, one of our larger clients who is someone I track closely for our biz, and the general economy, just requested canceling or pushing out delivery on orders scheduled to arrive the USA in Aug-October. They supply parts to the big AG guys and auto industry, and they normally extremely sharp on their forecasting. We have worked with this client since 2005 and this is the third time we have seen this type of request. The first time was in spring of 2008 and second time during the pandemic.
For the record, I am not saying this is doomsday on the economy by any stretch. Thought it was interesting because in the 19 years of working them only two times have suppliers not shipped them goods in a given month. Prior to these cancelations they have good shipped twelve months a year 16 out of the last 18 years. Will add, the request was made due to slowdowns with their customers.
Goose:
A company I am on the Board of has experienced similar pushing out of delivery for orders.
I have been on the Board for many years and similar to your experience , we saw this same customer behavior in Great Recession and Pandemic.
An observation from this company is that much of the recent growth has come from customers getting their inventory in balance . Now that it is in balance and decent depth. Now that the customers can properly meet their needs , reorders are reflecting true underlying economic conditions.
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There are multiple industries are producing well below actual demand right now because of too much inventory in the system that built up post pandemic and when the supply chain lengthened/were disrupted. Depending on your industry this has been happening since early 22 and has been very long.
Additionally gdp has been solely led by services for quite a while because of above dynamic and spending shifts back to trips, experiences etc.
So not a new phenomenon even if some new parts of the economy may be starting to see it now.
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If there is negative news coming, as of now I think it is good for the markets. When does negative news become bad news? I don’t know. The markets want to see unemployment above 4%. That is good news for the markets and for now would be bullish. The fed won’t get what it wants without breaking the employment market., that’s been my opinion for a while.
Another perspective to consider is from someone in industrial real estate in Dallas and Atlanta. Investor, owner, developer. He says the amount of manufacturing capacity and industrial building going on is something he has never seen except to compare it to how China used to be. Literally comparing it to a China boom scenario. From his perspective and his periscope view into the economy things are booming like he has never seen. But things can be booming and falling apart at the same time, especially in real estate which often is mistimed, as we know. But it also is a buffer against a big down turn unless financing falls apart like in 2008-9 where projects literally got abandoned that were in process. That seems like less of a risk now; but what we don’t think is a risk can be. When things are going well there might be more risk, we just are not seeing it. When things are going bad we might see all sorts of risks, when there actually is less risk especially long term. Buffet’s way of investing. He understood some version of negativity bias before anyone even if it didn’t have a name.
I don’t pay much attention to predictors, no one can predict consistently so as we know Buffet is the model to stay long and invest more when things are really ugly, but I like to get Prof Jeremy Siegels perspective. Last I heard Siegel thinks we could be in a bull run for the rest of the decade due to factors including AI. I think if one invested like Buffet but used index funds, and on the margins followed Prof Siegels signals, for marginal adjustments, one could have some fun and try to beat the index funds (fools goal I know and I just keep putting dumb money in and ignore it).
Either way, I just keep investing the same as always. I consciously don’t check in too often (negativity bias demands that we don’t check in too often or change our plans or we will underperform and over react to down turns). I learned my lesson in the Great Recession. I saw it coming, saw the real estate bubble. Got a lot out of the market. Great move. Except that I was too slow getting back in. I learned not to try to time things, because as I know now one has to get it right twice. And that is simply foolish for me to think I can do that not once but twice.
Because of our bias’s I’ve decided to expect to get slaughtered once in a while and see 40 or 50 percent losses, but don’t let it affect the long term strategy. And anything you don’t need to use in the short term should be invested for the long term. Maybe I’m lucky, as I consider most of what I have invested in the market for future generations, so 80% plus is long term. And if I greatly outlive life expectancy than I should have invested for the long term anyway. And I’m one of those that doesn’t hope to live to 100 or God help me longer. Never outlive all of your friends and some of your children - just too sad and painful.