Brew City Ball forum..

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If you triple Dawson's stats (based on him playing 10 minutes a game), his stat line is comparable to Derrick and he's a freshman...and most players can't put up stats playing sporadic minutes, getting occasional DNPs, and rarely seeing 20+ minutes.  Look at Mayo's production the last 5 games...its risen quite nicely with just a minute increase of 7 minutes per game.  Additionally, you cannot quantify the value a player that needs to be defended everywhere on the court brings to a team..as opposed to one who is sagged off 6-8' consistently.

Anyway...to suggest Dawson isn't close to ready is ridiculous...

If you triple Dawson's numbers, it's not legitimate and you know it. Most of Dawson's minutes have come in garbage time against bad opponents. You can't multiple those stats and pass them off as season stats.

If suggesting he's not close to ready is "really ridiculous" then how do you explain Dawson getting so many DNPs when Buzz has NEVER not had a backup PG before?

[GooooMarquette]

If you triple Dawson's stats (based on him playing 10 minutes a game), his stat line is comparable to Derrick and he's a freshman...

OK, you lost me at "if you triple Dawson's stats."  You know better than to suggest that you automatically get better production, and get it in equal proportions, simply by increasing minutes.  First off, Dawson usually doesn't play against the other team's starters, and more importantly, he doesn't have to fight the fatigue that comes with playing longer minutes.

But just to indulge your little hypothetical:  If you triple Dawson's numbers, he would still be behind Derrick in rpg (by 0.7), apg (by 1.1), and spg (by 0.7)...while leading in tpg (by 0.3).  While those numbers don't sound like much, that means with Derrick we'd get an additional 1.7 possessions per game...pretty critical for a team that has already played 4 OT games.  And while John would be ahead by 0.4 ppg, the deficiency of 1.1 apg would still put him behind by 1.8 ppg when you consider points scored plus points created by assists (and that's assuming all of the assists are only on two-pointers).

I believe John will have a very good career at Marquette.  But even extrapolating statistics - a pretty weak exercise to begin with - doesn't produce better numbers than Derrick has produced this season.  And then there's the defense.

[NersEllenson]

Games   FG   FGA   %   3Pt FG   3Pt FGA   %   FT%   Def   Off   Total R   Asst   Steal   Block   Foul   TO   Total Points   35     2.9   5.7   51          0.3   0.9      30.3          2.2   0.6   2.8   3.4   2.5   0.2   1.8   2.0   7.8  27     2.1   3.9   41          0.0   0.5      7.7          2.5   1.3   3.7   4.1   1.3   0.0   2.4   1.5   5.6

Sorry, tables are really impossible on Scoop.  I redid the numbers on a per game basis.  Red scores a couple of points more, turns the ball over more but creates a few more possessions with his defense than does the blue player.  Blue is a much better rebounder, especially on the offensive end.  I'd take red but blue definitely has value in comparison right?

Well now you shifted it to per game production...and Red has more games played than Blue...which reduces overall output per game.  The original post you used minutes played as the comparison....and quite frankly, RED was a clear cut better choice..  Of course a player will produce more, the more minutes they play...and in your original post the minute comparison between red and blue was pretty close...but to stretch the production out over 35 games as opposed to 27...sure that makes the Red guys stats look less impressive on a per game basis...

[NersEllenson]

If you triple Dawson's numbers, it's not legitimate and you know it. Most of Dawson's minutes have come in garbage time against bad opponents. You can't multiple those stats and pass them off as season stats.

If suggesting he's not close to ready is "really ridiculous" then how do you explain Dawson getting so many DNPs when Buzz has NEVER not had a backup PG before?

Oh please...you can't even engage in a reasonable debate on the topic.  Sure were some garbage minutes against Georgetown in overtime on the road against arguably best back court in Big East.  More garbage minutes in first half against DePaul...as well as those he played at Xavier.

Question:  Why do you think there is one game in Dawson's whole season that stands out from the rest?  Was it a fluke..or just a coincidence that it coincided with the ONE TIME ALL YEAR he's gotten 30 minutes.  Has Todd's production gotten better since his minutes increased and Playing time stints haven't been as interrupted?  Most guys who are talented basketball players are going to produce MORE not less with more minutes.

As for DNP after Seton Hall....perhaps you can check with an insider in the program and learn if John took a shot to the head in practice and was dealing with concussive symptoms and therefore held out for 2 games.  Nice try though. 

[GGGG]

OK, you lost me at "if you triple Dawson's stats."  You know better than to suggest that you automatically get better production, and get it in equal proportions, simply by increasing minutes.  First off, Dawson usually doesn't play against the other team's starters, and more importantly, he doesn't have to fight the fatigue that comes with playing longer minutes.

But just to indulge your little hypothetical:  If you triple Dawson's numbers, he would still be behind Derrick in rpg (by 0.7), apg (by 1.1), and spg (by 0.7)...while leading in tpg (by 0.3).  While those numbers don't sound like much, that means with Derrick we'd get an additional 1.7 possessions per game...pretty critical for a team that has already played 4 OT games.  And while John would be ahead by 0.4 ppg, the deficiency of 1.1 apg would still put him behind by 1.8 ppg when you consider points scored plus points created by assists (and that's assuming all of the assists are only on two-pointers).

I believe John will have a very good career at Marquette.  But even extrapolating statistics - a pretty weak exercise to begin with - doesn't produce better numbers than Derrick has produced this season.  And then there's the defense.

Good work.  I know this won't kill the Rasputin of discussion points, but it is good work.

[brandx]

A thread on Brew City forum... seems the perfect place to start a discussion on Derrick vs. John.

So much new ground to cover!!

[g0lden3agle]

A thread on Brew City forum... seems the perfect place to start a discussion on Derrick vs. John.

So much new ground to cover!!

To be fair we had a solid retrospective going on the whole Derrick vs. Dawson thing, which naturally segued into the actual Derrick vs. Dawson thing.

[mu03eng]

Well now you shifted it to per game production...and Red has more games played than Blue...which reduces overall output per game.  The original post you used minutes played as the comparison....and quite frankly, RED was a clear cut better choice..  Of course a player will produce more, the more minutes they play...and in your original post the minute comparison between red and blue was pretty close...but to stretch the production out over 35 games as opposed to 27...sure that makes the Red guys stats look less impressive on a per game basis...

Yeah, my bad I wanted to do it on a per game basis all along.  I do it per possession but as stupid as it sounds I don't know how to transform the data like that.

The player in red is Rajon Rondo, from his first year playing at Kentucky.  Derrick is not even a homeless man's Rondo, but the comparison struck me because Rondo is a terrible shooter and played on defensive minded Kentucky team that had more talent than MU currently has.  I think everyone would take the Rondo numbers but they are way closer than I would have thought and I do think it puts a little perspective on Derrick's performance to date.....and a lot of teams guarded 4-5 feet off Rondo in college, just like they do in the NBA now.

[keefe]

A thread on Brew City forum... seems the perfect place to start a discussion on Derrick vs. John.

So much new ground to cover!!

I've been scarce lately due to work but this made me laugh.

[NersEllenson]

Yeah, my bad I wanted to do it on a per game basis all along.  I do it per possession but as stupid as it sounds I don't know how to transform the data like that.

The player in red is Rajon Rondo, from his first year playing at Kentucky.  Derrick is not even a homeless man's Rondo, but the comparison struck me because Rondo is a terrible shooter and played on defensive minded Kentucky team that had more talent than MU currently has.  I think everyone would take the Rondo numbers but they are way closer than I would have thought and I do think it puts a little perspective on Derrick's performance to date.....and a lot of teams guarded 4-5 feet off Rondo in college, just like they do in the NBA now.

No worries on the original being listed on a per minute versus per game basis...Rondo is a unique talent, because, yes..as you point out...teams give him a decent cushion on perimeter as he isn't a great shooter - yet I feel part of that strategy is employed due to the fact Rondo is lightning quick..and getting up on him...he can easily blow by and force help, collapse defense and cause all kinds of problems.  Derrick isn't anywhere in Rondo's league athletically...nor is Dawson for that matter...Rondo has that Iverson-esque cat like quickness that makes him a nightmare.  Nonetheless, though, just by virtue of Rondo making the 3's he did as a freshman, and shooting them...it does force the defense to respect it somewhat..

[Jay Bee]

Honestly I'd need to have all these stats in per possession rather than per game to make a decision.  Right now I think red is the clear favorite and think per possession stats might flip it in his favor even more.

I WANT TO KNOW WHO RED IS!  I WANT YOU TO SHOW ME!

Yes, see my earlier post in this thread.. the tempo free stats do help red, as do knowing his college team, his role on that team, etc... (and his role today in the NBA).