Scholarship table
Gotta start somewhere.
We can’t even agree on wearing a mask. We are stuck in this environment until something that doesn’t require general public involvement. Record numbers of cases, rising hospital totals, and still an almost violent reaction to the smallest of steps, despite ample evidence it works.
Good stuff here: https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-toI did not realize that there is a ~7 day lag between a death and the reporting of the death."This [reporting lag] may be one reason why the US deaths trend currently differs from Brazil and India. In those, cases have risen consistently; the current surge in the US comes after a decline and a plateau.""Some anecdotal and statistical evidence suggests that the average age of people with COVID-19 is declining, which complicates expectations that deaths will increase in step with new cases. <snip> In the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Abbott’s state, the University of Texas Southwestern reports that the age distribution of positive COVID-19 tests has shifted dramatically from March to June, with a peak under 30 years old. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions in the DFW region have also shifted younger if less dramatically; 50% of hospitalized patients are under 50, as are 30% of ICU patients.""In areas where younger adults are driving new infections, we might not see deaths spike until infections overflow into more vulnerable populations. “If what is happening are outbreaks in young people, it seems likely that these young people will go on to transmit to others in their communities,” Dean writes in an email. “This spillover would cause a subsequent rise in cases among older people, followed by a lagged rise in deaths.”
That makes a lot of sense. The current spike in cases may not initially result in a death toll like the Seattle/NYC outbreaks did, but we may see a secondary spike in cases and eventually deaths as these 20 and 30 somethings go home and infect older family members or other contacts.Improving medical care is very likely also a factor in declining morbidly and mortality, but the point stands that we should not be too overconfident if the death tally from the current spike doesn’t rise dramatically in the next couple of weeks. I would focus more on the latter half of July and into August to see what happens to the death toll from the spread of the current wave.
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I hope this pandemic might put a serious dent in the anti-vax movement.
A single man could change the mask debate overnight. He won't.
I don’t know. While we may have a vaccine in 6 months, we will not have a vaccine that is known to be safe. There will be no way to know if there are intermediate or long-term effects.
Part of my optimism is rooted in skepticism that we will have a COVID vaccine anywhere near 6 months from now. I think we will go through the fall/winter flu season having to rely on masks, social distancing and gradual improvements in care protocols, so people will begin to reassess whether they really want to face the possibility of getting both in the same season...and maybe even contracting COVID just after having a nasty flu. I also think that as the months go by, more and more 'COVID doubters' will know someone among their family, friends or coworkers who has faced the virus and learned how bad it is. Because of that, I think (hope?) more people will get the flu vaccine this fall, and more people will get a COVID vaccine whenever one is approved.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704Let's hope this doesn't become a 2nd pandemic. 2020 doesn't need any more major threats.
Wow. That would be just devastating. COVID will definitely still be here in the fall, so another 'pandemic potential' flu bug could overwhelm resources everywhere.
This is why I was sounding the alarm about over-prognostication with this new infection rate. The infection rate is going up, but it doesn't necessarily correlate to hospitalizations and deaths for Covid. It still could, it'll be about another week for hospitalizations and another 2-3 for deaths to really start definitively tracking the infection rate (if it is going to). Early indications are that it isn't going to track anywhere near where it did in the early days.Bars and restaurants being open for indoor dining is still probably a bad idea, but the concept of a general re-opening of society is going to come with increased infection rate (how high depends on mask/spacing adherence) and as long as we are protecting the vulnerable I think it's the right balance.We'll see what the end of next week brings from the numbers but in the early analysis I'm cautiously optimistic that this surge in infections will not overwhelm the hospital systems which is kind of the whole point.
Minnesota is seeing a spike among 20 somethings, but the overall rate is not going up.
And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.
Present your evidence that it is protestors that are getting sick. Otherwise, its just TALKING POINTS
This is getting a lot of attention from Docs tonight. Not positive but a rare media quote from the CDChttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html