COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

Test and trace

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1274682110608097280

Agreed - I have been singing this tune for weeks. But it appears Americans have to make a choice: get over their "privacy" concerns, or face a punishing second wave.

N.Y.C. Hired 3,000 Workers for Contact Tracing. It’s Not Going Well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/nyregion/nyc-contact-tracing.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

The city’s program has so far been limited by a low response rate, scant use of technology, privacy concerns and a far less sweeping mandate than that in some other countries, where apartment buildings, stores, restaurants and other private businesses are often required to collect visitors’ personal information, which makes tracking the spread easier.

China, South Korea and Germany and other countries have set up extensive tracking programs that have helped officials make major strides in reducing the outbreak. In South Korea, for example, people at weddings, funerals, karaoke bars, nightclubs and internet-game parlors write down their names and telephone numbers, and the authorities have been able to draw on cellphone location data, credit card transactions and even closed-circuit video footage to identify and isolate potential contacts.

----------

Given the tendency of many Americans to see any restrictions as "Big Government taking away my freedom," I fear that our society is going to sacrifice lives and the economy in the name of "freedom."

[JWags85]

We’re still average though in the west, death wise.  The difference is that the first wave is done in EU while we have persistent spread.  So we are dealing with the economic and health consequences and carry more risk to the fall. 

For Wags. Life isn’t normal — it’s different and will likely be that way until a vaccine.  I think you can be mad at the media but some of it is a function of your news feed/internet.  If you read good journalism you will be informed.  If you want to be mad, there are plenty of places to find that on the internet too.

I agree with this. There is a function of the media now, good or bad, that needs to constantly churn content. “Following” a story doesn’t drive clicks like mentioning how amazing a state is doing or how destined for certain doom.

I read a lot of sources across the board cause I need to be informed professionally, and that’s just how I’ve always tried to curate my info. My twitter feed ranges from people I follow for finance/trading info who think a Clay Travis’s takes are gospel and that Fauci is power hungry to writers and other content creators who may as well have Bernie’s face tattooed on their neck. It’s important to consume it on various levels to make your own assessments. Which makes it extra annoying when people throw mini tantrums like above to shove me into a perceived box and give me a proper lashing my stupidity that they feel those in that box deserve.

I realize this is the “new normal” for the mid term future. I realize the likelihood of me traveling to Asia for work, much less Europe, for the balance of the year is very small. The near term struggles of companies who have an international focus or brick and mortar sales channels will continue is to struggle. This is reality. There is also reality that there very much is news/update/warning exhaustion.  I don’t have answers to how to fix it, but calling anyone who experiences it stupid, or selfish, or whatever certainly doesn’t improve the US’s progress through it, doesn’t improve adoption of it, etc...

[mu03eng]

Test and trace

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1274682110608097280

Yeah this feels real high on the no crap, basic blocking and tackling meter.

[MU82]

Bill Maher had former Obama national security advisor Susan Rice on his show Friday. She said that in the time leading to the transition to Trump taking over, she spent considerable time preparing a detailed playbook for a pandemic for her successor, Michael Flynn.

“I briefed on pandemics in various different settings with General Flynn. And yes, this Pandemics For Dummies playbook, as I like to call it ...  was to give the incoming staff the wherewithal to ask the right questions early on in the event of a pandemic. Because we knew that a pandemic was all but inevitable. We didn’t know when; we didn’t know what form it would take.

“So as important as it was to be prepared with respect to China or Russia or Iran, in our estimation it was to be prepared with respect to a pandemic. Obviously, they weren’t.

“Now whether Michael Flynn or one of his successors or somebody on their staff put the pandemic playbook on the shelf to collect dust, or in the garbage bin, I can’t say for sure. Flynn wasn’t in the job long enough probably to unpack much less to start throwing things away.”

[shoothoops]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1274816278197342209?s=19

Mexico thread.

[MU82]

From Sunday AP article:

In California, much of the increase in the total number of cases does appear to be a result of more testing, health officials say. That does not fully explain the overall caseload increase in several other states, however, public experts say, directly contradicting a major talking point by the president and some of his aides.

In some of the most affected states, such as Florida and Arizona, not only are larger proportions of tests coming back positive, but more of the afflicted are becoming sicker, Thomas Inglesby of Johns Hopkins' School of Public Health said in an interview on Fox News Sunday.

"What we are seeing is increased positivity in testing, and in many cases increased hospitalization," Inglesby said. "That's not just because we're doing more testing in a state; that's because there is more serious disease in a state."

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis conceded that point at a news conference Saturday in Tallahassee, saying that even with test rates flat or increasing, "the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than that."

Obviously, the spike in the South and Southwest is not just from more testing. It is from people refusing to acknowledge actual danger and taking the simplest steps to try to alleviate the situation. It is from national leadership that mocks social distancing and wearing masks, rather than encouraging it. It is largely from ignorance and denial of reality in a desperate attempt to win an election.

When DeSantis -- probably the biggest Trump toady among all U.S. governors and a "leader"  who has refused to release accurate data on COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations -- admits publicly that it is beyond just more testing, you know that the numbers are WAY worse than just because of more testing.

[GooooMarquette]

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis conceded that point at a news conference Saturday in Tallahassee, saying that even with test rates flat or increasing, "the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than that."[/i]

....

When DeSantis -- probably the biggest Trump toady among all U.S. governors and a "leader"  who has refused to release accurate data on COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations -- admits publicly that it is beyond just more testing, you know that the numbers are WAY worse than just because of more testing.

I never would have expected DeSantis to say this. My fear is that it means the growing wave in FL may be even worse than we have been expecting, and that DeSantis had to weigh his loyalty to Trump vs how bad he would look if he continues to dismiss the increases and then FL becomes the new epicenter.

The key though, as always, will be if DeSantis has the will to turn his knowledge into action. That could mean slowing the rate of reopening, mandating masks, canceling or dramatically restricting the RNC, or something else significant. If he doesn't do any of that, his pessimistic words will just fade into the ether as the wave grows.

[pbiflyer]

I never would have expected DeSantis to say this. My fear is that it means the growing wave in FL may be even worse than we have been expecting, and that DeSantis had to weigh his loyalty to Trump vs how bad he would look if he continues to dismiss the increases and then FL becomes the new epicenter.

The key though, as always, will be if DeSantis has the will to turn his knowledge into action. That could mean slowing the rate of reopening, mandating masks, canceling or dramatically restricting the RNC, or something else significant. If he doesn't do any of that, his pessimistic words will just fade into the ether as the wave grows.

He won't.

Hundreds of complaints, zero penalties for bars, restaurants violating Florida reopening rules
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/state/2020/06/22/many-complaints-but-no-penalties-violating-florida-reopening-rules/3219321001

[Pakuni]

Speaking of Florida, this hasn't aged well.

‘Where Does Ron DeSantis Go to Get His Apology?’
By Rich Lowry
May 20, 2020 11:39 AM

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/where-does-ron-desantis-go-to-get-his-apology/

[Lennys Tap]

When DeSantis -- probably the biggest Trump toady among all U.S. governors and a "leader"  who has refused to release accurate data on COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations -- admits publicly that it is beyond just more testing, you know that the numbers are WAY worse than just because of more testing.
[/quote]

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t - eh, Mike?

[MU82]

When DeSantis -- probably the biggest Trump toady among all U.S. governors and a "leader"  who has refused to release accurate data on COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations -- admits publicly that it is beyond just more testing, you know that the numbers are WAY worse than just because of more testing.


Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t - eh, Mike?

Not sure what you're asking ... if he is "damned" because he finally tells the truth about COVID-19 data in Florida?

I think Gooooooooooooooo hits the nail on the head here:

I never would have expected DeSantis to say this. My fear is that it means the growing wave in FL may be even worse than we have been expecting, and that DeSantis had to weigh his loyalty to Trump vs how bad he would look if he continues to dismiss the increases and then FL becomes the new epicenter.

The key though, as always, will be if DeSantis has the will to turn his knowledge into action. That could mean slowing the rate of reopening, mandating masks, canceling or dramatically restricting the RNC, or something else significant. If he doesn't do any of that, his pessimistic words will just fade into the ether as the wave grows.

[forgetful]

There is a very simple reason for the reluctance to do proper tracking and tracing of cases from the federal level. If contact tracing and quarantine measures were done properly, you'd see significant business closures due to lack of staff. The result would be a partially closed economy for months.

Those that run things do not want that. So we will not get proper contact tracing. Unless it is anonymous app based tracing, where quarantine is strictly voluntary.

[GooooMarquette]

While we are talking Florida, I saw two noteworthy numbers today.

Between June 7-21, the new daily cases in Duval County (Jax - RNC) went from 21.7 to 130.3
Between June 7-21, the new daily cases in Orange County (Disney - NBA) went from 49.6 to 254.9

Plenty of decisions to be made....

[MU82]

Another red-state governor, Abbott in Texas, sounding the alarm ...

https://twitter.com/tplohetski/status/1275143848818327552

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Another red-state governor, Abbott in Texas, sounding the alarm ...

https://twitter.com/tplohetski/status/1275143848818327552

Smart.  I actually think Abbott has one of the toughest gov jobs in a pandemic.  The geography, spans of rural and urban and the libertarian streak in tx makes it very diverse set of people to lead.  The virus doesn’t care about any of that and it’s going to take us all working together to have fight it. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The thing that's scary in places like Florida and Texas is that, even if everyone starts wearing a mask, distancing, etc. that it will still be ten to fourteen days before it has any impact.

This has all been very predictable.  The rhetoric around reopening was going to cause some states to open too fast, and without proper precautions in place.  And now things may need to be shut down in some manner again. 

[GooooMarquette]

The thing that's scary in places like Florida and Texas is that, even if everyone starts wearing a mask, distancing, etc. that it will still be ten to fourteen days before it has any impact.

This has all been very predictable.  The rhetoric around reopening was going to cause some states to open too fast, and without proper precautions in place.  And now things may need to be shut down in some manner again.

Agreed. And the impact that we may see in 10 to 14 days will only be the beginning of a slight decrease in the upward trajectory. Actually flattening the curve and then seeing it turn downward will take at least several weeks beyond that.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I agree with everything said, but this is inevitable with the path we have chosen.  If not now, in the fall that there will be relapse to deal with. 

The TX gov certainly opened too early or conversely the people failed to be socially distant with masks/precautions.  I believe though he has taken this seriously all along and they have hospital capacity and a plan to surge if necessary. 

So i hope they are successful, show a continuation of the improved outcome on treatment/mortality.  Selfishly I also hope they can change their behavior without shut-down and wrestle control back.  Will show us all its possible for when we likely have this in portions of our state or cities down the road.

[MU82]

I would be pretty surprised if either Abbott or DeSantis roll back anything in a material way.

It seems like they are all-in, and maybe they have enough support from the majority of their constituents to say, "We've got to keep our economy rolling, even if it means some bad consequences for a relative few."

Maybe they try a targeted approach, taking extra precautions in the major metro areas that are most affected while letting more rural areas stay fully operational. It will be interesting to watch.

[Jockey]

As red state Govs are starting to get worried that people are noticing how much they have screwed the pooch on this, the White House is actively trying to reduce testing to benefit Trump.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-testing-trump_n_5ef0df9ac5b68f12e4e5353a


Without doubt, this is the biggest failure ever by an American president in dealing with a crisis.

[JWags85]

I would be pretty surprised if either Abbott or DeSantis roll back anything in a material way.

It seems like they are all-in, and maybe they have enough support from the majority of their constituents to say, "We've got to keep our economy rolling, even if it means some bad consequences for a relative few."

Maybe they try a targeted approach, taking extra precautions in the major metro areas that are most affected while letting more rural areas stay fully operational. It will be interesting to watch.

I can only speak for Texas, but the targeted approach will be the game plan. My good friend is on Abbott’s staff in a fairly high ranking role.  While he, and obviously Abbott, are pretty staunch Republicans, there’s been no “it’s a hoax” mentality or denial in their internal ranks. They had difficult balances given the relatively mild spread there early on and the challenges of balancing Houston, Dallas, Austin all in varying places and outlooks, without them factoring in large rural populations.  And Frenns is correct. While numbers are concerning, they have significant contingency plans in place.

To make matters even more difficult, Texas is one of the few states where the Lt Gov has significant powers and is elected separately, and Dan Patrick is a complete grifter/lunatic that they have to work against. To say the two camps don’t get along is to put it mildly.

We butt heads on certain issues, and I certainly have my issues with Abbott and Texas politics, but he and Abbott are in a VERY difficult position with this all, regardless.

[Mutaman]

Without doubt, this is the biggest failure ever by an American president in dealing with a crisis.

Hoover and the depression vs Trump and covid? What's a bigger failure -having a plan that makes things worse or having no plan at all?

[MU82]

I can only speak for Texas, but the targeted approach will be the game plan. My good friend is on Abbott’s staff in a fairly high ranking role.  While he, and obviously Abbott, are pretty staunch Republicans, there’s been no “it’s a hoax” mentality or denial in their internal ranks. They had difficult balances given the relatively mild spread there early on and the challenges of balancing Houston, Dallas, Austin all in varying places and outlooks, without them factoring in large rural populations.  And Frenns is correct. While numbers are concerning, they have significant contingency plans in place.

To make matters even more difficult, Texas is one of the few states where the Lt Gov has significant powers and is elected separately, and Dan Patrick is a complete grifter/lunatic that they have to work against. To say the two camps don’t get along is to put it mildly.

We butt heads on certain issues, and I certainly have my issues with Abbott and Texas politics, but he and Abbott are in a VERY difficult position with this all, regardless.

Patrick's the one who said most older Texans would volunteer to die, right?

[Jockey]

Patrick's the one who said most older Texans would volunteer to die, right?

Patrick is kinda old. Hope he is at the front of the line.

[JWags85]

Patrick's the one who said most older Texans would volunteer to die, right?

Yep. And the same guy who was a corny, schtick heavy failed sports radio host who “reinvented himself” as a conservative evangelical political talk radio personality