Looking Ahead

[1SE]

Oooff - D was there but just couldn't hit FTs or big shots down the stretch - too bad - but no point dwelling

Since these last two went how we expected sans Tyler, the next games take on some added significance. 0-2 might very well put us on the 4 line. Win 1 and we're probably a 3 (although I'd rather than win be @X then first round BET to be sure). Probably need to win 3 more to be comfortable with our chances at a 2.

Heaven forbid we lose @X, but would that chance the calculus about putting a not-100% Tyler in for the 1st round BET to ensure we don't drop to a 4? The first weekend results aren't widely different historically for a 3 vs a 4, but I would certainly rather play a 6 in the 2nd round (a Utah or Washington State) than a 5 (a BYU)

[TallTitan34]

We won’t be a 4.

[PGsHeroes32]

People gotta stop thinking we are dropping to a 4 seed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

People gotta stop thinking we are dropping to a 4 seed.

There was an outside shot last week but it really would have needed everything too go wrong for MU. With Bama, Illinois, and San Diego St all losing, i think we are firmly locked into a 2/3 seed

[1SE]

There was an outside shot last week but it really would have needed everything too go wrong for MU. With Bama, Illinois, and San Diego St all losing, i think we are firmly locked into a 2/3 seed

I'll defer to the knowers of the S, but it seems reasonable to me that we could drop to 13

Projected Seed   Current Record & Projected Finish   NCAA Tournament Bid Odds   Seed Projection Detail
Seed   S-Curve   Team   Proj W/L   Bid   Auto Bid   At Large Bid   Avg Seed   1-4 Seed   1 Seed
1   1   
Purdue (27-3)   28-3   100%   53%   47%   1.0   100%   99%
1   2   
Houston (27-3)   28-3   100%   41%   59%   1.0   100%   98%
1   3   
Connecticut (27-3)   28-3   100%   44%   56%   1.1   100%   88%
1   4   
Tennessee (24-6)   25-6   100%   34%   66%   1.4   100%   60%
2   5   
Arizona (23-6)   25-6   100%   65%   35%   1.8   100%   28%
2   6   
Iowa St (24-6)   25-6   100%   17%   83%   2.3   98%   10%
2   7   
Baylor (22-8)   23-8   100%   12%   88%   2.6   96%   5%
2   8   
Kansas (22-8)   22-9   100%   9%   91%   2.7   96%   5%
3   9   
N Carolina (24-6)   24-7   100%   32%   68%   2.8   94%   4%
3   10   
Auburn (23-7)   24-7   100%   27%   73%   3.3   87%   1%
3   11   
Duke (24-6)   25-6   100%   38%   62%   3.5   82%   1%
3   12   
Creighton (22-8)   23-8   100%   21%   79%   3.7   78%   1%
4   13   
Marquette (22-8)   23-8   100%   17%   83%   4.0   71%   0%

[wisblue]

If MU falls behind a team like Auburn that has 1 Quad 1 win I will be appalled.

At this point I think MU’s chances of a 2 seed are pretty low, but it would be pretty disappointing if they dropped to a 4.

[MuggsyB]

Not dropping to a 4.  But we desperately need a healthy Tyko for rd 1 in the tournament. 

[HowardsWorld]

I think Marquette is in danger of dropping off the 2 to the 3 line. They need to win at Xavier and probably the 1st round of the BET to hold onto the 2 at this point.

[Its DJOver]

8 Q1 wins wins is tied for 4th in the country only behind UConn, Houston and Purdue.  People need to look at the resumes of other teams, not just be like an AP voter and move us down based on a loss.  Two Q1A losses don't hurt us very much if it all.

[HowardsWorld]

8 Q1 wins wins is tied for 4th in the country only behind UConn, Houston and Purdue.  People need to look at the resumes of other teams, not just be like an AP voter and move us down based on a loss.  Two Q1A losses don't hurt us very much if it all.

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

[tower912]

Are you implying (crime mystery music as the villain is revealed)......Florida State? (lightning flashes and thunder rumbles)

[Its DJOver]

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

I must have missed where injuries shows up on team sheets.

[MU82]

I like the way Oso is looking ahead:

"I know we lost tonight, but our goal for the season wasn't to beat UConn at home. Our goal for the season was to win a national championship. We still haven't done that, and that's what I want my legacy to be. ... Hopefully, we get Tyler back soon and get even more healthy. Everyone's bodies start to recover a little bit. And we're the best us in the tournament. That's the plan."

BTW, Shaka called Oso the best leader he's ever coached and the most unselfish great player he's ever coached.

Man, I really have loved watching Oso play basketball for Marquette.

[tower912]

I remember Oso throwing his arm around Ben's shoulders as they walked off the floor after a bad game from Ben.   You could see the leadership, the mentorship, the emotional intelligence.

[21Jumpstreet]

I like the way Oso is looking ahead:

"I know we lost tonight, but our goal for the season wasn't to beat UConn at home. Our goal for the season was to win a national championship. We still haven't done that, and that's what I want my legacy to be. ... Hopefully, we get Tyler back soon and get even more healthy. Everyone's bodies start to recover a little bit. And we're the best us in the tournament. That's the plan."

BTW, Shaka called Oso the best leader he's ever coached and the most unselfish great player he's ever coached.

Man, I really have loved watching Oso play basketball for Marquette.

Loved when Shaka talked about Oso and added that he was one of the best, not just athlete, to come through the university. Also said something like Oso doesn’t know how good/successful he is going to be, in life. High praise for a high character young man.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

[Uncle Rico]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

The committee is bias against Marquette because Al played in the NIT a century ago

[Goose]

I agree that TK's injury will help with seeding, probably more than most think. With a healthy TK I had Creighton and UConn as probable losses. Thought they might win one, but no promises. Not having him in those two games is going to payoff on selection Sunday, imo. That said, they need to win on Saturday and BET win is not needed.

[MuggsyB]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

How so?  I feel like we'll wind up a #3. 

[wisblue]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

It might help compared to MU losing those games at full strength, but it isn’t going to help hold off teams like Baylor and Iowa State, who are picking up big wins in the meantime.

I think a three seed is the most likely at this point.

[wisblue]

I must have missed where injuries shows up on team sheets.

They don’t show up on the team sheets, but the NCAA selection guidelines do refer to taking things like injuries and coaching absences into account when evaluating a team

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

Especially given the publicity it has received I’m sure the committee members are aware of the Marquette situation. But, there are teams that were already nipping at their heels who have won big games in the meantime, who probably would be rated ahead of them today. Baylor and Iowa State are the obvious ones.

[Its DJOver]

They don’t show up on the team sheets, but the NCAA selection guidelines do refer to taking things like injuries and coaching absences into account when evaluating a team

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

Especially given the publicity it has received I’m sure the committee members are aware of the Marquette situation. But, there are teams that were already nipping at their heels who have won big games in the meantime, who probably would be rated ahead of them today. Baylor and Iowa State are the obvious ones.

I think you're reading way to much into it.  It would make a difficult job impossible if they dove as deep as you are implying.

[MU82]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

I was thinking the same. Unless the committee is convinced that Kolek won't make it back for the NCAAT, it makes sense to not penalize Marquette as much for the losses without him.

I do also agree with wisblue, though, that this can only "help" so much. Iowa State is actually winning actual games against actual Q1 opponents; one would thing that helps them more in the committee's view than the fact Marquette is playing without Kolek, no?

[Its DJOver]

I was thinking the same. Unless the committee is convinced that Kolek won't make it back for the NCAAT, it makes sense to not penalize Marquette as much for the losses without him.

I do also agree with wisblue, though, that this can only "help" so much. Iowa State is actually winning actual games against actual Q1 opponents; one would thing that helps them more in the committee's view than the fact Marquette is playing without Kolek, no?

Good news is to date, we still have more Q1 wins than ISU, and have an opportunity to grab another Saturday.  The committee has also not been happy with teams that have weak non-conference SOS.  We're at 17, ISU is down at 329.  We had a decent cushion built up between us and the 3's.  Right now, we'd still be a 2, but the margins have narrowed.  3 is still the floor though.

[wisblue]

I think you're reading way to much into it.  It would make a difficult job impossible if they dove as deep as you are implying.

Maybe, but you should watch the video the NCAA put out last year describing the selection process. There is a lot of voting and discussion over a few days to select at large teams, develop the seed list, scrub the seed list and  place the teams in the bracket. It would not be out of the question for Marquette to be involved in a discussion about the impact of Kolek’s injury on past and future games.

[Its DJOver]

Maybe, but you should watch the video the NCAA put out last year describing the selection process. There is a lot of voting and discussion over a few days to select at large teams, develop the seed list, scrub the seed list and  place the teams in the bracket. It would not be out of the question for Marquette to be involved in a discussion about the impact of Kolek’s injury on past and future games.

Point of discussion sure, but there are not enough hours in a day or days in a week to have the in depth dive on each team that you were talking about, there are just too many variables. 

[MU82]

Good news is to date, we still have more Q1 wins than ISU, and have an opportunity to grab another Saturday.  The committee has also not been happy with teams that have weak non-conference SOS.  We're at 17, ISU is down at 329.  We had a decent cushion built up between us and the 3's.  Right now, we'd still be a 2, but the margins have narrowed.  3 is still the floor though.

Thanks for that SOS info. Very useful.

[wadesworld]

If Kolek is out through the BET and we lose to Xavier and then our first BET game, we better hope the CFP committee isn't doing the NCAA Tournament selection or we may be playing another game at Fiserv for Kolek and Oso.

[PGsHeroes32]

If Kolek is out through the BET and we lose to Xavier and then our first BET game, we better hope the CFP committee isn't doing the NCAA Tournament selection or we may be playing another game at Fiserv for Kolek and Oso.

That would only be if TK was also out for ncaa in CFP logic

[wadesworld]

That would only be if TK was also out for ncaa in CFP logic

Yeah, but if he doesn't play Saturday or in the Garden, can you really just take MU at its word that he'll be playing in the NCAA Tournament?

[Goose]

Wades

It is not that I do not trust Shaka regarding TK return, but I feel much better when I actually seeing him play. Until that happens my concern level will remain high. This team had one goal this season and we all bought in and fingers crossed they have a chance to accomplish that goal.

[MUfan12]

FWIW Tyler was telling people last night he's ahead of where he thought he'd be in the recovery.

IF, and the way this year has gone, it's a big if, they are healthy for the tournament this stretch will help them win at least one game. Someone's gonna have foul trouble, they're gonna need their depth to step up, and they have been tested big time without their floor general.

[wisblue]

Point of discussion sure, but there are not enough hours in a day or days in a week to have the in depth dive on each team that you were talking about, there are just too many variables.

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

[wadesworld]

It was a tongue in cheek line.

I do hope the committee sees that we competed hard against two top 10 teams without our All American point guard, and I hope they get to see that Kolek is healthy and playing next week.

Like Goose, until I do see Kolek on the court looking like himself, I will be anxious about the end of this year.  Would be a real bummer not to see this group of guys get a true run at it.  If it results in a disappointing loss earlier than hoped for, it is what it is.  But the true disappointment for me would be not seeing them get a real shot at a run with a fully healthy roster.

[Its DJOver]

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

Hard disagree.  If they're "giving reports to the committee on significant items affecting that team", and having "a lot of voting and discussion" (your words), there would not be sufficient time to do that for every of the 50ish teams in contention for an at large, as well as the 20ish single bid conference tourney champions that also need to be placed on the s-curve.  How do they compare MU games with no TKO to Kansas games with no McCuller, to Houston games with no Tugler to all of the other teams?  It would make an already difficult task impossible. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It might help compared to MU losing those games at full strength, but it isn’t going to help hold off teams like Baylor and Iowa State, who are picking up big wins in the meantime.

I think a three seed is the most likely at this point.

I think we're still on the 2 seed line.  Iowa state is right there with us but we have a step on Baylor, Kansas, and Creighton. 2 steps on Duke.

We are completely capable of beating X without Tyler and that would be another Q1 win. That would keep us at a 2 no matter what IAST, CREI, or BAY do this weekend. If KU wins at Houston,  that might boost them above us.

After that, unless one of them win their conference tournament and we dont, we should stay a 2.

All assuming that TKO is coming back

[MU82]

FWIW Tyler was telling people last night he's ahead of where he thought he'd be in the recovery.

IF, and the way this year has gone, it's a big if, they are healthy for the tournament this stretch will help them win at least one game. Someone's gonna have foul trouble, they're gonna need their depth to step up, and they have been tested big time without their floor general.

First, not to go all "Source?" on you, but I'd love to know where and when and to whom was Tyler saying that stuff.

Otherwise, I totally agree with your second point - my son made the exact same point in a text this morning. Norman looked like he belonged yesterday. Stevie did some studly stuff. Gold played well. Those experiences can only help when we get to the tourney. The missing pieces are Ross being himself and obviously a guy named Kolek.

[wisblue]

Hard disagree.  If they're "giving reports to the committee on significant items affecting that team", and having "a lot of voting and discussion" (your words), there would not be sufficient time to do that for every of the 50ish teams in contention for an at large, as well as the 20ish single bid conference tourney champions that also need to be placed on the s-curve.  How do they compare MU games with no TKO to Kansas games with no McCuller, to Houston games with no Tugler to all of the other teams?  It would make an already difficult task impossible.

According to the video the NCAA put out relating to the process they use for voting on teams to be placed tentatively on the seed lines, each vote can take up to 30 minutes. I would assume that during that 30 minutes there is some discussion about the teams that are under consideration.

There can also be discussion when the seed list is “scrubbed” to see if any two teams should swap spots.

If there is no discussion during any of this process, what the heck do they do for 3 or 4 days before finalizing the bracket on Sunday.

If Brewcity has participated in a mock selection session maybe he can shed some light on this.

[brewcity77]

I haven't done a mock selection, but I have watched some of them to get an idea of the process. What they'll generally do is pull up resumes and discuss as a group. Typically, once teams are ordered, it's going to be harder for them to switch spots and they'll need a compelling reason to do so. That's why I don't put much stock in games after Thursday, because by then the order is mostly set and it takes something significant to move teams.

Right now, we're likely right on that 2/3 edge and it will depend on how they judge Kolek missing games coupled with his healthy return. I think if we beat Xavier and Tyler is back on Thursday and at least marginally effective, we'll be evaluated based on our play with him rather than without.

[Its DJOver]

According to the video the NCAA put out relating to the process they use for voting on teams to be placed tentatively on the seed lines, each vote can take up to 30 minutes. I would assume that during that 30 minutes there is some discussion about the teams that are under consideration.

There can also be discussion when the seed list is “scrubbed” to see if any two teams should swap spots.

If there is no discussion during any of this process, what the heck do they do for 3 or 4 days before finalizing the bracket on Sunday.

If Brewcity has participated in a mock selection session maybe he can shed some light on this.

You do realize how this is significantly different than how you started this discussion right?

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

If each team had an assigned committee member that was following the team more closely to provide a report, I would certainly hope that it would be more in depth than TKO missed two games. They would also have Oso missing CU, Stevie missing time, Chase missing time, Sean missing time. That's five different players spanning over half of our games. That's not a

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

couple minute discussion. Then you go and do that for every team among the 70ish team sheets, all while filling out the s-curve based on all the other rules in place (locations/avoiding rematches etc.) All while conference tournament games are still going on and throwing even more variables at you.  That is a weeks long process, not a 3-4 day long process.  You are reading way to much into a few off hand comments made by committee members.  They by and large are just looking at team sheets, which do not include injuries.  If you try to start going down that path, it becomes way to convoluted.

I'll also note that you again failed to answer my question on how MU with TKO would be compared to KU/UH without their respective players.  It's just an impossible task.

[wisblue]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-provides-a-glimpse-into-the-process-of-choosing-the-teams-for-march-madness

This article sums up the things I’m talking about.

Note in particular the following items:

“The process consists of multiple votes, discussions, side by side comparisons, scrubbing, team sheets, holding lists…”

“The process starts before the season, when committee members are assigned conferences to monitor during the season. Each conference has primary and secondary monitors who have monthly calls with the leagues for updates on statistics, injuries, suspensions- anything that could impact a school’s performance.”

To answer your question about injuries, I would expect that it would only come up in connection with “side by side comparisons”. So, there would be no need to compare the Kolek and Houston injuries because the teams aren’t close to each other. But with MU and Kansas the teams’ respective injuries (and the teams’ head to head game) might be considered in connection with which team should be placed ahead of the other.

If you have first hand knowledge that my understanding of the process is incorrect I would love to hear it. But, Brewcity’s comments about observing a mock selection seem to confirm that discussions comparing teams that might be close to each other on the seed list do take place.

BTW, it is my understanding that all of the rules relating to placing teams in the bracket are not addressed until Sunday and after the seed list has been finalized.Your comment about all of the new variables brought in by conference tournaments going on is why conference tournaments do not have as much impact as many fans think they will.

[Its DJOver]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-provides-a-glimpse-into-the-process-of-choosing-the-teams-for-march-madness

This article sums up the things I’m talking about.

Note in particular the following items:

“The process consists of multiple votes, discussions, side by side comparisons, scrubbing, team sheets, holding lists…”

“The process starts before the season, when committee members are assigned conferences to monitor during the season. Each conference has primary and secondary monitors who have monthly calls with the leagues for updates on statistics, injuries, suspensions- anything that could impact a school’s performance.”

To answer your question about injuries, I would expect that it would only come up in connection with “side by side comparisons”. So, there would be no need to compare the Kolek and Houston injuries because the teams aren’t close to each other. But with MU and Kansas the teams’ respective injuries (and the teams’ head to head game) might be considered in connection with which team should be placed ahead of the other.

If you have first hand knowledge that my understanding of the process is incorrect I would love to hear it. But, Brewcity’s comments about observing a mock selection seem to confirm that discussions comparing teams that might be close to each other on the seed list do take place.

The only time injuries are mentioned in the entire article is during the paragraph about the conversations that occur months before hand.

When they get to the actual process: "Throughout the process are discussions about the teams — facts only, no opinions — and occasional comparisons of team sheets, which have everything from overall record to strength of schedule. The NCAA Evaluation Tool breaks down teams' records in four quadrants based on opponents' NET ranking and where a game is played." they only mention team sheets, which do not include injuries.

Discussions happen, yes.  Scrubbing happens, yes. Can I conclusively say that the topic of injuries has never been brought up, no. However, nothing in the article makes me think that they will have an impact on our seeding.

[Its DJOver]

Of course discussion happens, I never said otherwise.  I said that the primary tool used to build the bracket is the teamsheeets, and the teamsheets do not include injuries. 

I also said that the amount of discussion required to include all the injuries throughout the entire season for all teams in contention for a bid would be far to large of an effort.  I think this is where the confusion lies.

[wisblue]

Lunardi now has MU at #10 on his seed list behind Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor.

[Uncle Rico]

Lunardi now has MU at #10 on his seed list behind Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor.

Lunardi is an idiot

[Newsdreams]

Lunardi is an idiot

Dung Lunardi

[wisblue]

I think we're still on the 2 seed line.  Iowa state is right there with us but we have a step on Baylor, Kansas, and Creighton. 2 steps on Duke.

We are completely capable of beating X without Tyler and that would be another Q1 win. That would keep us at a 2 no matter what IAST, CREI, or BAY do this weekend. If KU wins at Houston,  that might boost them above us.

After that, unless one of them win their conference tournament and we dont, we should stay a 2.

All assuming that TKO is coming back

I’m curious exactly what parts of MU’s resume compared to the other teams you mention give them 1 or 2 steps up on them.

I would hope that MU is capable of beating Xavier even without Kolek. But it’s far from a given. Pomeroy has MU as a 3 point favorite and a 61% chance of winning and that probably doesn’t factor in injuries.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I’m curious exactly what parts of MU’s resume compared to the other teams you mention give them 1 or 2 steps up on them.

I would hope that MU is capable of beating Xavier even without Kolek. But it’s far from a given. Pomeroy has MU as a 3 point favorite and a 61% chance of winning and that probably doesn’t factor in injuries.

We lost a Q1 win over night so its closer now,  but we had more Q1 wins, less Q2/Q3 losses and a much better SOS then those were in competition with. Plus the Kolek injury works in our favor.

KenPom doesnt factor for injuries, including Xaviers top two bench players being out. It also doesnt factor in how teams have been playing recently. In the past month,  Xavier has been the 150th best team in the country per BartTorvik. I think that's a more accurate rating for their current team than the 53rd ranking KenPom gives them for the whole season. Of course we could still lose but I'm very optimistic

[wisblue]

KenPom doesnt factor for injuries, including Xaviers top two bench players being out. It also doesnt factor in how teams have been playing recently. In the past month,  Xavier has been the 150th best team in the country per BartTorvik. I think that's a more accurate rating for their current team than the 53rd ranking KenPom gives them for the whole season. Of course we could still lose but I'm very optimistic

But it’s Xavier’s Senior Day. How is MU going to deal with all of that emotion on the other side?

[PointWarrior]

and those omni-powerful corsages they trot out for the seniors' mothers...

But it’s Xavier’s Senior Day. How is MU going to deal with all of that emotion on the other side?

[cheebs09]

Lunardi now has MU at #10 on his seed list behind Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor.

Annual reminder that Lunardi isn't really that good at this. He was just early to the game.

I just hope we are able to adjust to the shooting background at Xavier. Senior Day is hard enough.

[wisblue]

Annual reminder that Lunardi isn't really that good at this. He was just early to the game.

I just hope we are able to adjust to the shooting background at Xavier. Senior Day is hard enough.

I agree about Lunardi. I was just reporting it not endorsing it.

I do note that Dave Ommen of Bracketville, who I have found over the years to be very good, has moved MU from 7 to 9 in his seed list, with Baylor and Iowa State at 7 and 8.

[Superfan]

What’s the tie-breaker between us and Creighton for BE tourney seeding?

[GoFastAndWin]

What’s the tie-breaker between us and Creighton for BE tourney seeding?

3 shots from top-of-key, 3 shots from corners with cutout shooting backgrounds from every arena.

[GoFastAndWin]

First, not to go all "Source?" on you, but I'd love to know where and when and to whom was Tyler saying that stuff.

Otherwise, I totally agree with your second point - my son made the exact same point in a text this morning. Norman looked like he belonged yesterday. Stevie did some studly stuff. Gold played well. Those experiences can only help when we get to the tourney. The missing pieces are Ross being himself and obviously a guy named Kolek.

He’s connecting-to-source-Energy, as Dr Wayne Dyer gleefully instructs. Couldn’t agree more with you guys about the bright silvery lining.

[wisblue]

What’s the tie-breaker between us and Creighton for BE tourney seeding?

Creighton gets it because of a win over UConn.

But the advantage of the 2 vs 3 seed is imperceptible.

[Jay Bee]

Creighton gets it because of a win over UConn.

But the advantage of the 2 vs 3 seed is imperceptible.

***assuming it’s a two-way tie, not tres

[FairWeatherEagle]

What’s the tie-breaker between us and Creighton for BE tourney seeding?

Creighton has us.
* Obviously head-to-head in min-league of tied teams = tied (SH jumping in doesn't help us)
* Next is record against top team in league and work your way down until someone has a better record.   So at the top we're 0-2 against UCONN and CR is 1-1.  So they got us.

So CR has to lose at NOVA and we win @X.

[wisblue]

***assuming it’s a two-way tie, not tres

The way the question was posed seemed to be asking about a two way tie.

But, if there is a 3 way tie at 13-7 including Seton Hall, it would still be CU 1, MU 2, SH 3.