The Bubble

[Windyplayer]

I am predicting a Seton Hall win.

I could easily see this. It took one of our best games of the year to beat SHU in Jersey. That was a nice win.

[Windyplayer]

Sporting News...

"Marquette 75, Georgetown 73. In what was a showdown of two teams squarely on the bubble, the Golden Eagles (17-11, No. 73) got a victory they certainly needed to stay in the chase. They have three games left, starting Saturday at Villanova. Then come bubble opponents Providence and St. John’s."

How generous. I'll take it.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-28/bubble-watch-georgetown-marquette-arkansas-uk-ucla-suspension-ncaa-tournament

[Windyplayer]

Latest Bubble Watch...

No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Windyplayer]

Yahoo Sports...

"Marquette (17-11, 9-6): No way would I have guessed Marquette could play its way onto the fringes of the bubble picture, but here the Golden Eagles are threatening to sneak into the field of 68. Their 75-73 victory over Georgetown is their fifth in sixth games, giving them hope entering a final three-game stretch that begins at Villanova on Sunday and continues at Providence and at home against St. John's. Marquette's RPI of 73 is abysmal and its list of victories don't include any surefire NCAA tournament teams besides George Washington, which makes the Villanova game absolutely critical. Get that one on the road and earn at least a split in the remaining two games, and perhaps the Golden Eagles will have some hope entering the Big East tournament."

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/bubble-breakdown-oregon-gets-much-needed-win-over-071453928--ncaab.html

Yep, it's a slow Friday afternoon in the office.

[brandx]

Latest Bubble Watch...

No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Look at the comparative records against top 50 teams and against top 100 games. That's the difference.

[Eldon]

Latest Bubble Watch...

No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

FWIW, Brennan was the ONLY analyst who had us beating Miami last year. So i don't think he's MU-hating just for the sake of it.

Gtown has some signature wins. We have none. None.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Look at the comparative records against top 50 teams and against top 100 games. That's the difference.

DING DING DING.  That's exactly right.  They have scalps, we don't. 

[Stronghold]

DING DING DING.  That's exactly right.  They have scalps, we don't. 

We have the chance to play 6 more games.  Scalps are there for the taking.  Are we going to peel them back, or let them go?

[ChicosBailBonds]

We have the chance to play 6 more games.  Scalps are there for the taking.  Are we going to peel them back, or let them go?

That will decide our fate. 

[6Under20]

GU has 3 top 50 wins and 3 losses of 130 or more including to a team with a 232 rpi.
MU has 2 top 50 wins and 1 loss of 130 or higher + a season sweep.  I think we've moved ahead of them.

Only about 10 to 15 more teams to go.

[ChicosBailBonds]

GU has 3 top 50 wins and 3 losses of 130 or more including to a team with a 232 rpi.
MU has 2 top 50 wins and 1 loss of 130 or higher + a season sweep.  I think we've moved ahead of them.

Only about 10 to 15 more teams to go.

GU is 4-5 vs top 50
MU is 2-9 vs top 50


GU is 2-4 vs 51 to 100
MU is 3-1 vs 51 to 100

GU has 3 bad losses (including one really bad loss)
MU has 1 bad losses

GU SOS = 23
MU SOS = 65

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET

[chapman]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET

Zero >300 RPI wins vs. five also sticks out in a bad way.  Though I suppose the SOS and RPI already reflect the result of that.

[Big Papi]

GU is 4-5 vs top 50
MU is 2-9 vs top 50


GU is 2-4 vs 51 to 100
MU is 3-1 vs 51 to 100

GU has 3 bad losses (including one really bad loss)
MU has 1 bad losses

GU SOS = 23
MU SOS = 65

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET

So vs top 100

Georgetown is 6-9
Marquette is 5-10 and we swept Georgetown and have 1 bad loss to their 3. 

I think we are now slightly ahead of Georgetown but still need to win 2 out of next 3 and 3 out of next 4 to sneak in.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So vs top 100

Georgetown is 6-9
Marquette is 5-10 and we swept Georgetown and have 1 bad loss to their 3.  

I think we are now slightly ahead of Georgetown but still need to win 2 out of next 3 and 3 out of next 4 to sneak in.

Yes, but you are expanding the range to make the profile work for you...right?  I mean, against the best teams, top 50, GU is 4-5 while we are 2-9.  That's quite the difference.

Or to take it a step further, against the top 25 RPI GU is 2-3 and MU is 0-7 with the average spread of 9 points per game.

The head to head stuff I believe would only matter if it truly came down to just those teams, which I doubt truly works out that nicely.  I keep looking for high quality wins for MU and there just isn't much meat.  GW....and Xavier (who is hanging on for dear life in the top 50 at 46).



I would guess the two teams are very close, and both are on the outside looking in.  Thank God for 68 teams, still gives us a chance.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Just saw on ESPN2 that Lunardi has Providence and St. John's as First Four Out, and MU and GTown as Next Four Out.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just saw on ESPN2 that Lunardi has Providence and St. John's as First Four Out, and MU and GTown as Next Four Out.

Sounds about right. Holy hell a win tomorrow would be neat.

[4th and State]

Sounds about right. Holy hell a win tomorrow would be neat.

Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.

[willie warrior]

Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.

Yeah--a forfeit would be good so we can prepare for the next game because each is a must win.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Nothing in the bracket matrix

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


Still a 3 seed in the NIT version, however.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

[Eldon]

Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.

Doing so would increase their tourney credits. Why not?

[Big Papi]

Yes, but you are expanding the range to make the profile work for you...right?  I mean, against the best teams, top 50, GU is 4-5 while we are 2-9.  That's quite the difference.

Or to take it a step further, against the top 25 RPI GU is 2-3 and MU is 0-7 with the average spread of 9 points per game.

The head to head stuff I believe would only matter if it truly came down to just those teams, which I doubt truly works out that nicely.  I keep looking for high quality wins for MU and there just isn't much meat.  GW....and Xavier (who is hanging on for dear life in the top 50 at 46).



I would guess the two teams are very close, and both are on the outside looking in.  Thank God for 68 teams, still gives us a chance.

Yes you can say I am expanding the range but what is the difference between team number 25 and team number 26?  or team number 50 and team number 51?  Point is the committee doesn't just look what you do against the top 25.  or top 50.

So if Georgetown had an RPI of 50 instead of 51 that would change the committees mind as we would have 2 more top 50 wins? That doesn't make any sense to me.

The RPI is not the be all end all.  Beating Xavier does matter.  Beating George Washington does matter.  Sweeping bubble teams like Georgetown and Providence does matter a lot.  I can't believe if they have a RPI of 51 and 52 instead of 49 and 50 that those victories wouldn't matter as much.  The RPI has its purpose but if we are within close range of Georgetown and Georgetown is a bubble team, beating them twice and finishing third and ahead of them in the conference with an above .500 conference record in an equal conference round robin schedule will be valued way more than Georgetown having an RPI that is slightly better than ours.

But this is all mute if we go out and lose 2 or 3 out of our next 4 games.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

Dance Card has only missed one at-large prediction in the last two years.


Lots of work to do according to them....updated through yesterday.  We have 15 teams to jump

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yes you can say I am expanding the range but what is the difference between team number 25 and team number 26?  or team number 50 and team number 51?  Point is the committee doesn't just look what you do against the top 25.  or top 50.

So if Georgetown had an RPI of 50 instead of 51 that would change the committees mind as we would have 2 more top 50 wins? That doesn't make any sense to me.

The RPI is not the be all end all.  Beating Xavier does matter.  Beating George Washington does matter.  Sweeping bubble teams like Georgetown and Providence does matter a lot.  I can't believe if they have a RPI of 51 and 52 instead of 49 and 50 that those victories wouldn't matter as much.  The RPI has its purpose but if we are within close range of Georgetown and Georgetown is a bubble team, beating them twice and finishing third and ahead of them in the conference with an above .500 conference record in an equal conference round robin schedule will be valued way more than Georgetown having an RPI that is slightly better than ours.

But this is all mute if we go out and lose 2 or 3 out of our next 4 games.  

Not much difference between 50 and 51.  A lot of difference between 25 and 85.  The comparisons to Georgetown are fine if those are the last two teams, but the chances of that are remote.  Say they are down to three teams.  Georgetown, MU and St. John's?  Say SJU sweeps MU...so they get the edge over MU?  Yet G'Town split with SJU....and MU swept G'town?  So on and so forth.  When they look at how the teams did against overall competition, their schedule, etc, then we start looking worse.  So I won't disagree with you if it comes down to MU and GU then maybe, but the chances of that are so remote....they will be looking at probably 10 teams for those last few spots.

[Big Papi]

Not much difference between 50 and 51.  A lot of difference between 25 and 85.  The comparisons to Georgetown are fine if those are the last two teams, but the chances of that are remote.  Say they are down to three teams.  Georgetown, MU and St. John's?  Say SJU sweeps MU...so they get the edge over MU?  Yet G'Town split with SJU....and MU swept G'town?  So on and so forth.  When they look at how the teams did against overall competition, their schedule, etc, then we start looking worse.  So I won't disagree with you if it comes down to MU and GU then maybe, but the chances of that are so remote....they will be looking at probably 10 teams for those last few spots.

Well the only way we are on the bubble and in the discussion is if we win 2 out of last 3 and 1 tournament game.  That means we either beat Villanova or St. Johns or both.  Plus another win against a St. Johns/Providence in tournament.  That would mean beating all the Big East bubble teams (sweeping or splitting against them) or getting a win on the road against a top 10 team.  Either way, it helps our resume a lot.  And if that means our RPI is up in the 50s.....its enough to get the committee to take a closer look at us in which case I like our chances over Georgetown. 

And I am not talking about 25 vs 85.  I am talking about Xavier being 46 or 51.  Or any team for that matter having an RPI in the high 40s or low 50s.  Frankly it doesn't matter as its still a good win.  There is no magic cut off that has 25 as a great win and 26 as not.  Or a win against RPI 50 having more merit than 51.  They will look at all of our wins and loses very closely and compare to others.

I am not arguing about if we are in or out at the moment.  Everyone knows we are out and have a lot of work to do but winning 2 of 3 plus 1 tourney game gets us on the bubble and in the conversation and I will take our resume over Georgetown at that point in time unless they win out.  Better conference record by at least 2 games and a season sweep speaks volumes over them having 2 more top 50 wins. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm just going to reiterate how soft the bubble is. Softest I've seen in years.