The Bubble

[wardle2wade]

Meh, we win, it will have been a glorious bubble night.  We immediately hop at least 6-8 teams, probably more, directly in front of us. 

I was just going to post the same... If MU wins, it will be a huge bubble day no doubt, as many of the bubble teams will still lose tonight.  At least a few of them that are "expected to win" will likely lose which is only more damaging to their resume.

This logic is what I've been saying since after the first crappy Butler game, when people said we were finished...
1) Bubble teams by definition are hit-or-miss...
2) There are many bubble teams...
3) Thus by the attrition (of bubble teams losing) and MU winning late-season games, a team like MU can make huge jumps in a relatively quick time-frame.

The hardest part is winning games like tonight.  Let's hope MU can do it.

[brandx]

I was just going to post the same... If MU wins, it will be a huge bubble day no doubt, as many of the bubble teams will still lose tonight.  At least a few of them that are "expected to win" will likely lose which is only more damaging to their resume.

This logic is what I've been saying since after the first crappy Butler game, when people said we were finished...
1) Bubble teams by definition are hit-or-miss...
2) There are many bubble teams...
3) Thus by the attrition (of bubble teams losing) and MU winning late-season games, a team like MU can make huge jumps in a relatively quick time-frame.

The hardest part is winning games like tonight.  Let's hope MU can do it.

All fine and good, but I don't think we are on the bubble yet.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Here is the bubble action tonight.

DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)

A day late because I was bummed after the Creighton game. But I still have faith. Bubble is soft and 4-1 should still suffice.

Xavier demolished Depaul.
St. Joe's squeaks by Rhode Island
Indiana State squeaks by Evansville
LSU beats Mississippi State
Mizzou barely beats Vandy at home
Dayton cruises past La Salle
Minnesota gets demolished by a lesser Illinois team at home
Arkansas beats South Carolina
Oregon beats Washington
UCLA destroys Cal
Colorado over Arizona State

Basically, Marquette, Cal, and Minnesota were bracket losers. Every other bubble team took care of business.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bubble results from tonight:

Louisiana Tech may have had their bubble burst by a sub par ECU
Nebraska beats the Penn State fighting DJ Newbills
Southern Miss demolishes an awful UTSA team
UWGB (probably a stretch) handles Valpo at home
Seton Hall embarrasses Georgetown
Toledo squeaks by Bowling Green on the road.
BYU upsets Gonzaga for a signature win
Stanford crushes USC

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Can someone post the RPI predictor website that you can input results to see what the RPI would be?  I can't seem to locate it.

Thanks in advance.  

FOUND IT. NEVERMIND.

[brandx]

A day late because I was bummed after the Creighton game. But I still have faith. Bubble is soft and 4-1 should still suffice.

Xavier demolished Depaul.
St. Joe's squeaks by Rhode Island
Indiana State squeaks by Evansville
LSU beats Mississippi State
Mizzou barely beats Vandy at home
Dayton cruises past La Salle
Minnesota gets demolished by a lesser Illinois team at home
Arkansas beats South Carolina
Oregon beats Washington
UCLA destroys Cal
Colorado over Arizona State

Basically, Marquette, Cal, and Minnesota were bracket losers. Every other bubble team took care of business.

Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.

We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.

[g0lden3agle]

Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.

We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.

4-1 and at least 2 BET wins is squarely in the tourney.  No way are we "on the bubble" if we go 6-2 in our last 8.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.

We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.

Dude, you're clueless. Do you follow any CBB outside of MU? If the tourney started today, would MU be in? Absolutely not.  But they are in the bubble conversation.  Yes, a 4-1 finish and a win or two in the BET is probably necessary to actually GET IN, but they are in the bubble conversation, and will be until they lose 3 more regular season games.  The difference between the last 8 teams in and the first 8 teams out is going to be astronomically small.  I don't particularly like our chances due to our OOC performance and lack of a big win, but the bottom line is that the other teams we'll be competing against for those spots have equally as unimpressive resumes. Many have MUCH MUCH worse losses than we do.  Many played much easier schedules, it just so happens that our cupcakes turned out to be very bad for our RPI.  The committee is not clueless and will take this into account.

If you don't like the bubble talk, or think MU is way further away from the tournament than they actually are, that is fine - you're certainly entitled your opinion.  Things definitely need to go MU's way in the next 30 days for our streak of consecutive berths to continue, but it's not like the BET is their only path to a berth.  Until it is (3 more regular season losses), MU will continue to be in the coversat ion.

[brandx]

Dude, you're clueless. Do you follow any CBB outside of MU? If the tourney started today, would MU be in? Absolutely not.  But they are in the bubble conversation.  Yes, a 4-1 finish and a win or two in the BET is probably necessary to actually GET IN, but they are in the bubble conversation, and will be until they lose 3 more regular season games.  The difference between the last 8 teams in and the first 8 teams out is going to be astronomically small.  I don't particularly like our chances due to our OOC performance and lack of a big win, but the bottom line is that the other teams we'll be competing against for those spots have equally as unimpressive resumes. Many have MUCH MUCH worse losses than we do.  Many played much easier schedules, it just so happens that our cupcakes turned out to be very bad for our RPI.  The committee is not clueless and will take this into account.

If you don't like the bubble talk, or think MU is way further away from the tournament than they actually are, that is fine - you're certainly entitled your opinion.  Things definitely need to go MU's way in the next 30 days for our streak of consecutive berths to continue, but it's not like the BET is their only path to a berth.  Until it is (3 more regular season losses), MU will continue to be in the coversat ion.

I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble

My definition of the bubble is every team that still has a (somewhat) realistic chance of making the tournament.  I would definite that as the last 6-8 at large qualifiers, and the next 15-18 or so teams fighting for a bid.  Obviously, every day we inch closer to the tournament, the bubble gets a little smaller.  Right now, MU is definitely in that group of teams that are currently outside of the field and fighting for their tournament lives.

Right now I would say the following teams are on "The Bubble":

Cal
SMU
Missouri
Minnesota
St. Johns
St. Joe’s
BYU
Providence
Georgetown
West Virginia
Richmond
Baylor
OK State
Oregon
Dayton
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
Indiana State
Florida State
NC State
Arkansas
Clemson
Ole Miss
Marquette
Boise State

That is 26 teams that still have legitimate chance at an at-large bid.  Obviously only about 1/3 of them will make it.  But this changes every single day, and a whole lot in a week.  Fortunately, many of these teams will lose several times before the end of the season, hence why the bubble is soft, and MU still has chance.

[brandx]

My definition of the bubble is every team that still has a (somewhat) realistic chance of making the tournament.  I would definite that as the last 6-8 at large qualifiers, and the next 15-18 or so teams fighting for a bid.  Obviously, every day we inch closer to the tournament, the bubble gets a little smaller.  Right now, MU is definitely in that group of teams that are currently outside of the field and fighting for their tournament lives.

Right now I would say the following teams are on "The Bubble":

Cal
SMU
Missouri
Minnesota
St. Johns
St. Joe’s
BYU
Providence
Georgetown
West Virginia
Richmond
Baylor
OK State
Oregon
Dayton
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
Indiana State
Florida State
NC State
Arkansas
Clemson
Ole Miss
Marquette
Boise State

That is 26 teams that still have legitimate chance at an at-large bid.  Obviously only about 1/3 of them will make it.  But this changes every single day, and a whole lot in a week.  Fortunately, many of these teams will lose several times before the end of the season, hence why the bubble is soft, and MU still has chance.

And I agree MU has a chance. We have to get in a position to get chosen, which means moving up at least 10 places from where we are now and then we have to hold that spot. And we can't do those things losing 2 more regular season games - There are not enough games left. Winning the next 3 may get us to the "first 4 out", but then losing a game would drop us right back out.

I see our only way in is to win the BET since I don't think we can go undefeated the rest of the way. Then we need someone else to upset Creighton in the tournament and we would then have a real chance.

You obviously disagree, but we'll see what happens.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

And I agree MU has a chance. We have to get in a position to get chosen, which means moving up at least 10 places from where we are now and then we have to hold that spot. And we can't do those things losing 2 more regular season games - There are not enough games left. Winning the next 3 may get us to the "first 4 out", but then losing a game would drop us right back out.

I see our only way in is to win the BET since I don't think we can go undefeated the rest of the way. Then we need someone else to upset Creighton in the tournament and we would then have a real chance.

You obviously disagree, but we'll see what happens.

I don't really disagree w what you just said. Seems fair. It will certainly be an uphill battle. But a 4-1 finish would mean sweeps of fellow bubble teams Gtown and Prov, and a split with other tourney teams Xavier and STJ. Considering we haven't lost to any bad teams (the Butler loss hurts but compared to the other bubble teams a road loss to them is not that damning) the committee will have hard time leaving that team out and putting Providence or Gtown in. 4-1 is a likely third place finish. Anything less than that and you're probably right, a BET championship is the only way.

[NavinRJohnson]

I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble

Better question, who gives a rat's ass? Does being "on the bubble" on February 21st mean something? Marquette will make the tournament if they make the tournament.

[Wojo'sMojo]

The only chance we have is if we get Dawson and JJJ some run before the BE tourney.

[Wojo'sMojo]

I wish we had Keifer Sykes 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The only chance we have is if we get Dawson and JJJ some run before the BE tourney.

We've played better the last four games. You may have noticed that the two you mentioned sat for most of those games. Now correlation does not equal causation, but why mess with something that is working?

Only bubble action tonight was Harvard knocking off conference rival Pennsylvania.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For all those #bubblelife lovers, you'll have plenty to watch tomorrow

We obviously need to start with Marquette at Depaul (1 PM, CBSSN)
And I'll give the 2nd nod to the Aggies hosting Tennessee (2 PM, ESPNU)
The rest:
Xavier at Georgetown (10:30 AM, FS1)
Florida at Ole Miss (11 AM, CBS)
Clemson at Georgia Tech (11 AM, ESPN3)
Indiana  State at Missouri State (12 PM, ESPNU)
Saint John's at Villanova (12:30 PM, FS1)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Baylor at West Virginia (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Middle Tennessee at Marshall (2 PM, Regional)
NC State at Virginia Tech (1 PM, ESPN 3)
Dayton at Duquesne (1 PM, Regional)
Fordham at Saint Joseph's (1 PM, Regional)
LSU at Kentucky (3 PM, ESPN)
La Salle at Richmond (3 PM, CBSSN)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (3 PM, ESPN3)
UCLA at Stanford (5 PM, ESPN2)
Minnesota at Ohio State (5 PM, BTN)
UTEP at Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
Northwestern St. atStephen F. Austin (6 PM, Regional)
George Washington at Saint Louis (7 PM, Regional)
Harbard at Princeton (7 PM, ESPN3)
Missouri at Alabama (7 PM, ESPN2)
UNLV atBoise State (7:05 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Northwestern (7:15 PM, BTN)
Arizona at Colorado (8 PM, ESPN)
Portland at BYU (8 PM, Regional)

Lots going on tomorrow. Lot of bubble teams on the road. They could fall for some...dare I call them?...trap games.

Honestly, the Warriors aren't going to help themselves tomorrow. A win over a Melvin-less Depaul is nothing to write home about. However, if they do lose, it will officially put the bullet in this lame horse of a season...until the BET tourney run of course

[brandx]

Honestly, the Warriors aren't going to help themselves tomorrow. A win over a Melvin-less Depaul is nothing to write home about. However, if they do lose, it will officially put the bullet in this lame horse of a season...until the BET tourney run of course

Actually, the only team that I don't think we can beat is Creighton. If someone else can upset them, maybe....

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24452407/poppin-bubbles-stanford-notches-marquee-win-over-ucla

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2014/2/23/5417408/college-basketball-recap-duke-syracuse-louisville-cincinnati

[PGsHeroes32]

We've played better the last four games. You may have noticed that the two you mentioned sat for most of those games. Now correlation does not equal causation, but why mess with something that is working?

Only bubble action tonight was Harvard knocking off conference rival Pennsylvania.

While I don't think his statement was correct

Let's keep in mind 3 of our last 4 wins were against the only 3 teams no where near the bubble.

[madtownwarrior]

But what did George Washington do?   Or should we start a separate thread since it appears so many think their pivotal to our NCAA chances?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Latest from Lunardi:

FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech.

[Eldon]

Latest from Lunardi:

FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech.

Link?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Link?

It was a tweet. Goggle joe Lunardi twitter and boom!