The Bubble

[Galway Eagle]

Oh boy, those two wins must really improve our RPI.

Southern is currently dominating their conference again if they make it to the tournament every little bit helps us.  Even if if it's beating a mid-low major tournament team it's still a tournament team.

[Windyplayer]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/sc-ncaa-tournament-bubble-ryan-spt-0218-20140218,0,5517431.story

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/02/17/bubble-tracker-nebraska-highlights-big-tens-on-the-fence-teams/5551975/

I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.

[BM1090]

Oh boy, those two wins must really improve our RPI.

Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.

[Windyplayer]

Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.

That RPI is ugly, ugly. A win over Creighton would immediately remedy that.

[LAZER]

I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.

Ok St will push the limit for conference record for an at large.  The huge variable here is Smart's suspension (even though they were falling apart before) which the committee will have to consider. Ford might be feeling that seat heat up a little with a trip to the NIT and then....Buzz to Ok St?

[willie warrior]

Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.

If that is the case, we should all be shouting for the rest of the year:

GO SOUTHERN
GO GRAMBLING

[ChicosBailBonds]

That RPI is ugly, ugly. A win over Creighton would immediately remedy that.

Unfortunately, it doesn't remedy it that much.

[LAZER]

Unfortunately, it doesn't remedy it that much.

True, but combined with a win at DePaul and they're up to ~57.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.

What OSU has going for them are good wins, no bad losses, and a lot of very close losses in the top 50.  Their conference record is hurting them right now, no doubt, but they also play in the toughest conference in the country which is why their power rating numbers are decent.  31 in Ken Pom.  50 in RPI.  26 in Sagarin. 

Ken Pom and Sagarin care about margin of victory \ loss

Losing to Kansas by 2, Memphis by 5, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K-State by 3, Baylor last night in OT, etc...it tends to keep your rating high.  Wins over Memphis (played them twice this year), Texas, Colorado, West Virginia, etc have helped as well.  For them to get in, they are going to have to close that conference gap quickly.  They have some big games coming up and Smart is back, so it will be interesting to see how they fair.

[Windyplayer]

What OSU has going for them are good wins, no bad losses, and a lot of very close losses in the top 50.  Their conference record is hurting them right now, no doubt, but they also play in the toughest conference in the country which is why their power rating numbers are decent.  31 in Ken Pom.  50 in RPI.  26 in Sagarin. 

Ken Pom and Sagarin care about margin of victory \ loss

Losing to Kansas by 2, Memphis by 5, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K-State by 3, Baylor last night in OT, etc...it tends to keep your rating high.  Wins over Memphis (played them twice this year), Texas, Colorado, West Virginia, etc have helped as well.  For them to get in, they are going to have to close that conference gap quickly.  They have some big games coming up and Smart is back, so it will be interesting to see how they fair.

Good points. I just can't look past that 4-9 conference record though the committee probably could if the season ended today, but that doesn't mean they're not on the bubble as of today.

[Aughnanure]

Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Big East Conference

Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's

This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.

Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.

Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.

Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.

St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.

[Aughnanure]

But we are mentioned in CBS's Bubble Watch (the very last team mentioned). Progress!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

Organized much differently that ESPN's. Listed under "Work Left To Do". SJU, GTown, and Prov listed under "On the Fence."

OUTLOOK
Marquette has won three in a row just to get on this page. They have a brutal schedule to finish the regular season, but that's good because this team needs quality wins.

[Eldon]

Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Big East Conference

Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's

This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.

Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.

Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.

Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.

St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.

Hopefully all the "other at-large contenders" win their respective conference tournaments

[willie warrior]

Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Big East Conference

Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's

This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.

Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.

Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.

Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.

St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.

So why do so many here insist we are within the bubble?

[Windyplayer]

So why do so many here insist we are within the bubble?

Brennan just got lazy and didn't want to do one more write-up for a team in the Big East.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.

Just doesn't make much sense.  MU is in better position than several teams listed in Eammon Brennan's bubble watch.  Maybe he needs to see the win tomorrow to be convinced.  Bottom line is, this team is very much in the conversation, whether Eammon Brennan thinks so or not.  Lunardi would certainly have MU in his list, and his opinion has more value.  Win tomorrow, and we'll be on everyone's bubble list.

[LAZER]

Just doesn't make much sense.  MU is in better position than several teams listed in Eammon Brennan's bubble watch.  Maybe he needs to see the win tomorrow to be convinced.  Bottom line is, this team is very much in the conversation, whether Eammon Brennan thinks so or not.  Lunardi would certainly have MU in his list, and his opinion has more value.  Win tomorrow, and we'll be on everyone's bubble list.

I don't really disagree with these guys, the bracketology guys look at it as if the season ended today, it's the only way to do it otherwise you're playing with endless hypotheticals.  If MU wins tomorrow (and again on Saturday) the whole picture changes.  Just look at how Nebraska launched itseld into the bubble picture with a win against MSU, before I didn't see them mentioned anywhere really.

[wardle2wade]

Brennan just got lazy and didn't want to do one more write-up for a team in the Big East.

Completely agree.  He still kept LSU listed (lost twice last week)... they have a RPI 70 with two sub-100 losses (nearly three with Georgia).  Their kenpom is #70 as well.

For writers like this, we need a marquee win like Creighton to get noticed.

[BM1090]

Bubble action from February 18th. Bubble team is bold. Admittedly I'm reaching for some of these.

Villanova @ Providence
Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Wake Forest @ Maryland (bubble, kinda?)
NC State @ Clemson (both, Clemson probably is a bit closer)
George Washington @ Richmond
Butler @ St John's
Georgia @ Tennesee

Ole Miss, Providence, Richmond suffer home losses. St John's up a few early in the second half on Butler. Good night for MU so far.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Ole Miss, Providence, Richmond suffer home losses. St John's up a few early in the second half on Butler. Good night for MU so far.

Yep. Gotta take care of business tomorrow.

[Aughnanure]

I don't really disagree with these guys, the bracketology guys look at it as if the season ended today, it's the only way to do it otherwise you're playing with endless hypotheticals.  If MU wins tomorrow (and again on Saturday) the whole picture changes.  Just look at how Nebraska launched itseld into the bubble picture with a win against MSU, before I didn't see them mentioned anywhere really.

I'd normally agree, but the way the CBS and ESPN Bubble Watch work is a look ahead. Regardless I don't think its a big deal to have us in or out right now. Who cares? Still have to beat Creighton or pull off the Nova upset. Until one of those 2 things happens? Meh. We at least need the Creighton game to happen to legitimately dream, so why wouldn't they just wait once week. We'll know a lot more tomorrow night.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here is the bubble action tonight.

DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Here is the bubble action tonight.

DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)

Could be a rough bubble night for us. I would pick the bubble team to win almost every single one of those games. But that means that any losses could really tank their chances.

[Babybluejeans]

We're now in Sports Illustrated's Bubble Watch. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140218/bubble-watch-potential-upsets-ncaa-tournament-delaware-mercer/

IN THE MIX
Marquette (15-10, RPI: 74, SOS: 70) -- The Golden Eagles remain a long shot to make the tournament, but they have to be considered in the mix after recent wins over Providence and Xavier. They have two wins against teams in the top 50 (Xavier and George Washington, and eight of their 10 losses are to top-50 teams. They still have plenty of opportunity to make a case with games against Creighton, Georgetown, Villanova and Providence remaining.

*Side note: I miss Glockner

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Could be a rough bubble night for us. I would pick the bubble team to win almost every single one of those games. But that means that any losses could really tank their chances.

Meh, we win, it will have been a glorious bubble night.  We immediately hop at least 6-8 teams, probably more, directly in front of us.