K-12 Schools & COVID

[forgetful]

Do you see research for this?  I've seen the anecdotal evidence in a daycare in Oregon and a summer camp in Kansas?, but nothing beyond that.  Here's an article dated June 16 on some of the children data: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

I can see if there is any published data on this. Some of my contacts are epidemiologists doing modeling for governments in some of the hard hit areas, so some of my info comes from them. Here is one of the public stories:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-austin-texas-child-care-day-care-cases-update/269-49ec5dcf-d3d2-4c36-811a-59b1c1c2837b

States are restricting release of information related to these issues. They will provide it to "approved researchers" or reporters if asked, but otherwise keep it internal.

[pacearrow02]

I mean...that was late January when much wasn't really known.

This idea that people who have been wrong can never be right is really odd.

I never said he could never be right.  In fact said I hope he is right in regards to vaccine.

But you have to admit he was wrong on the big stuff early, really wrong.  Trump new enough in late January to start restricting travel from China.

[forgetful]

Even before the mask thing in late January he was quoted in an interviewing saying there is no reason to believe this version of coronavirus poses a serious risk to Americans.

This is misleading at best. In late January (and I believe even later), he was stating "at that moment" people in America do not need to be worried. That was based on the best data at the time that suggested that this could still be contained, and hence did not warrant a "current fear by the lay public". He cautioned that the conditions could change.

If you go through the main COVID thread, I was also cautiously optimistic early. Like Fauci, I recognized the potential for major risk, but also that the data suggested it could still be contained and suggested it wasn't that widespread in the US...yet.

Where I was wrong, was in believing that there was no way in the world, that we could be so insanely inept at testing and tracking, and fail on every level in recognizing and mitigating spread. The fact that we are still failing here is mind boggling. That became clear in mid February-ish. My cautiously optimistic outlook was gone, and I recognized we were in for a major ordeal that would cost 300-500k lives in the year.

Now, here is where leadership matters. Science, (Fauci, I and others), focus on data. We will report the current facts that are publicly authorized (e.g. cautiously optimistic, current data). But to leadership we will present all the flaws in current data, what needs to be done to control different possible scenarios (e.g. tracking and tracing/quarantines), and what the situation will look like if measures are not enacted. What aspects of that data can be released, and that is enacted upon, is dependent on the leadership. Here, leadership failed in every way imaginable.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I never said he could never be right.  In fact said I hope he is right in regards to vaccine.

But you have to admit he was wrong on the big stuff early, really wrong.  Trump new enough in late January to start restricting travel from China.

LOL...OK.

If you want to ignore how accurate he has been the last few months, that's fine.  And if you want to trumpet the one thing Trump has done well, that's fine too.  My puppy like to carry around a toy for comfort as well.  It's cute.

But remember, for the last few months, Fauci has been pretty much spot on about what would happen if you open without precautions. 

He has also said we need to do whatever we can to get students back in school, but we have to take precautions for that to happen.  He's not wrong and we all want it to happen.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Trump new enough in late January to start restricting travel from China.

LOL. The one and only proactive thing he has done throughout the entire COVID epidemic and even that was half-assed.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-07-04/trumps-strong-wall-to-block-covid-19-from-china-had-holes

"Exempted were thousands of residents of the Chinese territories of Hong Kong and Macao. An analysis of Commerce Department travel entry records and private aviation data obtained by the Associated Press show that nearly 8,000 Chinese nationals and foreign residents of the territories entered the U.S. on more than 600 commercial and private flights in the first three months after the ban was imposed.

When U.S. residents flying from mainland China arrived at U.S. airports, the system meant to flag and monitor them for the development of symptoms lost track of at least 1,600 people in just the first few days the ban went into effect, according to an internal state government email obtained by the AP."

That was the best he could do during the entire pandemic. He has run the U.S. response with the same acumen that he ran his casinos, airline, football team, university, and "charity".  Wait, that's not fair: he ran his charity very effectively for what it's actual purpose was, grifting money from the generosity of others.

[GooooMarquette]

This is misleading at best. In late January (and I believe even later), he was stating "at that moment" people in America do not need to be worried. That was based on the best data at the time that suggested that this could still be contained, and hence did not warrant a "current fear by the lay public". He cautioned that the conditions could change.

If you go through the main COVID thread, I was also cautiously optimistic early. Like Fauci, I recognized the potential for major risk, but also that the data suggested it could still be contained and suggested it wasn't that widespread in the US...yet.

Where I was wrong, was in believing that there was no way in the world, that we could be so insanely inept at testing and tracking, and fail on every level in recognizing and mitigating spread. The fact that we are still failing here is mind boggling. That became clear in mid February-ish. My cautiously optimistic outlook was gone, and I recognized we were in for a major ordeal that would cost 300-500k lives in the year.

Now, here is where leadership matters. Science, (Fauci, I and others), focus on data. We will report the current facts that are publicly authorized (e.g. cautiously optimistic, current data). But to leadership we will present all the flaws in current data, what needs to be done to control different possible scenarios (e.g. tracking and tracing/quarantines), and what the situation will look like if measures are not enacted. What aspects of that data can be released, and that is enacted upon, is dependent on the leadership. Here, leadership failed in every way imaginable.

Agreed.

Everybody makes mistakes sometimes. But rational, intelligent people make them based on existing knowledge and reasonable assumptions. Back in January/February, it was reasonable to assume that CDC knew what it was doing and that the US would be a leader in preventing this kind of spread...because CDC has a long history of being at the forefront in disease control and prevention. I personally made that "trust CDC" mistake earlier in this thread.

But rational, intelligent people also learn as new data points come in - about the virus itself and the illness it causes, the failures of leadership at most every turn, and the muzzling of the CDC by an administration that believed in magic. With all that new data, rational, intelligent people like Fauci have changed their opinions dramatically...and with good reason.

[pacearrow02]

This is misleading at best. In late January (and I believe even later), he was stating "at that moment" people in America do not need to be worried. That was based on the best data at the time that suggested that this could still be contained, and hence did not warrant a "current fear by the lay public". He cautioned that the conditions could change.

If you go through the main COVID thread, I was also cautiously optimistic early. Like Fauci, I recognized the potential for major risk, but also that the data suggested it could still be contained and suggested it wasn't that widespread in the US...yet.

Where I was wrong, was in believing that there was no way in the world, that we could be so insanely inept at testing and tracking, and fail on every level in recognizing and mitigating spread. The fact that we are still failing here is mind boggling. That became clear in mid February-ish. My cautiously optimistic outlook was gone, and I recognized we were in for a major ordeal that would cost 300-500k lives in the year.

Now, here is where leadership matters. Science, (Fauci, I and others), focus on data. We will report the current facts that are publicly authorized (e.g. cautiously optimistic, current data). But to leadership we will present all the flaws in current data, what needs to be done to control different possible scenarios (e.g. tracking and tracing/quarantines), and what the situation will look like if measures are not enacted. What aspects of that data can be released, and that is enacted upon, is dependent on the leadership. Here, leadership failed in every way imaginable.

I’m paraphrasing here but straight shooter Fauci said numerous times over the last 5 months that Trump has done everything the task force has asked him to do.

Not one recommendation from the task force was crap down.  When you say leadership who are you specifically referring to?

[pacearrow02]

LOL...OK.

If you want to ignore how accurate he has been the last few months, that's fine.  And if you want to trumpet the one thing Trump has done well, that's fine too.  My puppy like to carry around a toy for comfort as well.  It's cute.

But remember, for the last few months, Fauci has been pretty much spot on about what would happen if you open without precautions. 

He has also said we need to do whatever we can to get students back in school, but we have to take precautions for that to happen.  He's not wrong and we all want it to happen.

Find me a state that didn’t open with precautions and safety measures in place.  If citizens and communities don’t follow those recommendations there really isn’t anyone to blame but ourselves.

[pacearrow02]

LOL...OK.

If you want to ignore how accurate he has been the last few months, that's fine.  And if you want to trumpet the one thing Trump has done well, that's fine too.  My puppy like to carry around a toy for comfort as well.  It's cute.

But remember, for the last few months, Fauci has been pretty much spot on about what would happen if you open without precautions. 

He has also said we need to do whatever we can to get students back in school, but we have to take precautions for that to happen.  He's not wrong and we all want it to happen.

Also, you or I could have looked at the data and predicted what would happen if states didn’t take x, y, or z precautions.

I would hope the leading infectious disease mind in America could provide a little more value then, after being wrong initially And as a result seeing this virus spread like wildfire to the. Turn around and tell us to wash our hands, keep our distance, and wear a mask.

Pretty common sense stuff. 

[wadesworld]

Find me a state that didn’t open with precautions and safety measures in place.  If citizens and communities don’t follow those recommendations there really isn’t anyone to blame but ourselves.

Lol. Kind of like when Trump laid out the reopening guidelines and within 24 hours was Tweeting to “liberate” states as protests went on in them. Great leadership and messaging. Trump really helping the cause to cautiously, safely, and responsibly reopen, no doubt about it. The states and cities are at fault. Trump has knocked this out of the park. It’s not his fault we as a country are a laughingstock when it comes to handling the coronavirus, it’s the state and local governments! If trump just had more power we’d have been down to 0 cases by April, the virus would’ve disappeared when it got hot out, and our country would’ve been reopened by Easter!

[wadesworld]

Also, you or I could have looked at the data and predicted what would happen if states didn’t take x, y, or z precautions.

I would hope the leading infectious disease mind in America could provide a little more value then, after being wrong initially And as a result seeing this virus spread like wildfire to the. Turn around and tell us to wash our hands, keep our distance, and wear a mask.

Pretty common sense stuff.

Well, if MUScoop can figure this out but our president cannot (and leave no mistake, he certainly has not), that’s a major issue.

[pacearrow02]

Lol. Kind of like when Trump laid out the reopening guidelines and within 24 hours was Tweeting to “liberate” states as protests went on in them. Great leadership and messaging. Trump really helping the cause to cautiously, safely, and responsibly reopen, no doubt about it. The states and cities are at fault. Trump has knocked this out of the park. It’s not his fault we as a country are a laughingstock when it comes to handling the coronavirus, it’s the state and local governments! If trump just had more power we’d have been down to 0 cases by April, the virus would’ve disappeared when it got hot out, and our country would’ve been reopened by Easter!

Agree those tweets were dumb.  But as previously discussed they led to zero policy change and the cake was already baked in how the public was handling the shut down in pockets of the country.

I believe the tweets were in response to protests already on there way that opposed the continued lockdowns

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I’m paraphrasing here but straight shooter Fauci said numerous times over the last 5 months that Trump has done everything the task force has asked him to do.

Not one recommendation from the task force was crap down.  When you say leadership who are you specifically referring to?

The biggest issues have been minimizing it from the beginning, and encouraging states to open up too early and too fast.  And his actions over the last few weeks have just been bizarre.  Holding indoor rallies in hotspots.  Basically saying nothing to acknowledge what is occurring in Florida, Arizona and California.  Prioritizing the economy over health.  Threatening to withold funding from schools that don't open to in-person instruction.  Threatening the non-profit status of colleges and universitiies.

It's very clear that he simply wants the United States to press on with business as usual.  He wants normalcy and the Trump economy that comes with that.  Because he wants to be reelected.

I mean, it's pretty obvious.

The ironic thing, and I have said this 100 times, is that if he had the discipline to stay the course, invest more in testing and tracing, and provided constant messages of leadership, compassion and comfort, we would be in a much better place to return to normal than we currently.are.  Frankly he would be viewed as a leader and would likely sail to reelection.  For example, Angela Merkel was in trouble in Germany before this came along.  Now her approval ratings are through the roof.  Leadership during national emergencies is what we ask of our leaders, and when they come through, they are rewarded for that.

But he has no discipline, and compassion and comfort isn't his thing.  And this is where we are.  No national policy.  Growing cases, growing hospitalizations and likely a growing death toll.

A complete and utter failure.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Agree those tweets were dumb.  But as previously discussed they led to zero policy change and the cake was already baked in how the public was handling the shut down in pockets of the country.

I believe the tweets were in response to protests already on there way that opposed the continued lockdowns

I mean, if you don't understand how those tweets fed the fire of opening up early and fast, I don't know what to tell you.

[pacearrow02]

Well, if MUScoop can figure this out but our president cannot (and leave no mistake, he certainly has not), that’s a major issue.

If you expected Trump to figure this out you were setting yourself up for disappointment. 

Everyone said listen to the experts, do what the task force says.  From all accounts he did.

He stepped on his own dick a couple times with some of the messaging on twitter but as far as policy and guidelines he did what the task force wanted. 

And as a result they arguably saved over a million lives from initial estimates.

[pacearrow02]

I mean, if you don't understand how those tweets fed the fire of opening up early and fast, I don't know what to tell you.

I agree it didn’t help and definitely fueled the fire.

[pbiflyer]

I agree it didn’t help and definitely fueled the fire.

His followers still refuse to wear masks, refuse to believe this epidemic is a real problem.
They help a huge party here to celebrate his birthday and now we are one of the fastest growing virus areas in the nation.

[pbiflyer]

I mean, if you don't understand how those tweets fed the fire of opening up early and fast, I don't know what to tell you.

I saw one person that thought you could safely open schools with nothing more than masking up at change of classes and “ no kissy face in the hallways and away you go.”

Who knew it was so simple?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

IOW, it doesn't matter how much work schools do, if it is spreading in the community, someone will bring it into the school.

This has been the only important thing for any 'outcome' since the start of this year.  Step 1 contain...otherwise we dont get to do the things in step two for any sustainable amount of time.

[Hards Alumni]

If you expected Trump to figure this out you were setting yourself up for disappointment. 

Everyone said listen to the experts, do what the task force says.  From all accounts he did.

He stepped on his own dick a couple times with some of the messaging on twitter but as far as policy and guidelines he did what the task force wanted. 

And as a result they arguably saved over a million lives from initial estimates.

He steps on his dick every day that he doesn't tell people to wear masks, and wear one himself while in public.  He pays for this with votes every day.

[Jockey]

 

Everyone said listen to the experts, do what the task force says.  From all accounts he did.

You are simply lying.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Everyone said listen to the experts, do what the task force says.  From all accounts he did.

In the main thread I said, "You are smarter than this" when I thought you were simply being disingenuous about something. But if this is what you believe, I guess I was wrong.

[pbiflyer]

As Trump Demanded Schools Reopen, His Experts Warned of ‘Highest Risk’
 Federal materials for reopening schools, shared the week President Trump demanded weaker guidelines to do so, said fully reopening schools and universities remained the “highest risk” for the spread of the coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/us/politics/trump-schools-reopening.html

And the document,  complete with typo on the date.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/7072-school-reopening-packet/b70172f2cc13c9cf0e6a/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Not possible. Trump "listens to the experts." Or so I've been told.

[pacearrow02]

Not possible. Trump "listens to the experts." Or so I've been told.

That’s right, Fauci told you, me, and anyone willing to listen on probably 5 different occasions he did everything they asked him to do.

But if you don’t believe Fauci you wouldn’t be the first person so I understand the skepticism.