Prediction: 2018/19 KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margins

[Silkk the Shaka]

Predict where you think we'll finish in KenPom's final:

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (& rank)
Adjusted Offense (& rank)
Adjusted Defense (& rank)

Here's mine:

AdjEM: +21 (#17 overall)
AdjO: 121 (#5)
AdjD: 100 (#75)

For reference:
Our best AdjEM in the KenPom system is +22.16 (#14) in 2008 (Crean's last year, round of 32)
Our best AdjO is 120.8 (#8) in 2017 (1st round KO), and 120.5 (#2) in 2003 (final 4)
Our best AdjD is 91.3 (#14) in 2012 (S16) and 91.9 (#11) in 2002 (first round KO)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

AdjEM: +19.5 (#20 overall)
AdjO: 118 (#15)
AdjD: 99.5 (#73)

[jesmu84]

As another reference...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55448.0

[Silkk the Shaka]

As another reference...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55448.0

Nice hadn't seen that thanks!

[LoudMouth]

AdjEM: +16.5 (#30 overall)
AdjO: 118.5 (#17)
AdjD: 102 (#111)

Prove me wrong Defense!!

[Jay Bee]

Didn’t look at others before I came up with mine, but very much in line w TAMU:

AdjOE: 118.8 (13)
AdjDE: 99.4 (74)
Overall: 19.4 (17)

[brewcity77]

AdjOE: 120.2 (8th)
AdjDE: 98.1 (55th)
Overall: +22.1 (14th)

I'm probably an over-optimist, but what's new? I really think the departure of Rowsey is huge for the defense, and while he will be missed offensively, we will more than make up for that with the development and addition of other weapons.

[Silkk the Shaka]

AdjOE: 120.2 (8th)
AdjDE: 98.1 (55th)
Overall: +22.1 (14th)

I'm probably an over-optimist, but what's new? I really think the departure of Rowsey is huge for the defense, and while he will be missed offensively, we will more than make up for that with the development and addition of other weapons.

I could definitely see it! When I think about the way this roster is constructed, it's like the 2009 team with Heldt & Theo instead of Burke, Ed & Joey instead of Zar/young Jimmy, the defense/pass-first PG Chartouny instead of DJames, then the reliable wing scorers Howard/Hauser instead of Rel/Wes. Then add Cain/Elliott/Bailey/Anim/Eke for depth vs. Cubillan/Acker and you might have an even better overall team.

That team went +21 (#19) / 117.1 (#9) / 96.1 (#52) and was a healthy DJames away from a deeper tourney run. The clicking-on-all-cylinders upside of this team is even higher than that. Getting way too excited for this season...

[Dr. Blackheart]

AdjO = 117.2 (16)
AdjD = 101.6 (93)
Overall = +15.6 (35)

To improve defense to the level you guys want, MU needs to slow tempo (not going to happen) and/or change their defensive footprint to focus on defending the paint versus extending the perimeter. Ed is key and will be a bigger defensive game changer than Joe. We need a defensive identity this year and that means the ability to make stops to break runs. If MU finds its footprint, a 99 AdjD is within hope.

On offense, we will play a bit slower and won't shoot as well (down a bit) from the perimeter than with Andrew...but we will be better around the basket. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

AdjO = 117.2 (16)
AdjD = 101.6 (93)
Overall = +15.6 (35)

To improve defense to the level you guys want, MU needs to slow tempo (not going to happen) and/or change their defensive footprint to focus on defending the paint versus extending the perimeter. Ed is key and will be a bigger defensive game changer than Joe. We need a defensive identity this year and that means the ability to make stops to break runs. If MU finds its footprint, a 99 AdjD is within hope.

On offense, we will play a bit slower and won't shoot as well (down a bit) from the perimeter than with Andrew...but we will be better around the basket.

Not about Joe. About lack of Rowsey/Howard.

Howard on, Rowsey off: 0.95 dPPP (472 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard off: 1.05 dPPP (522 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard on: 1.17 dPPP (1439 possessions)

KenPom is all about the PPP...and when it was just Howard our's was stellar. Now I don't expect a 0.95 dPPP all season but it shows that our defense can be successful.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Not about Joe. About lack of Rowsey/Howard.

Howard on, Rowsey off: 0.95 dPPP (472 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard off: 1.05 dPPP (522 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard on: 1.17 dPPP (1439 possessions)

KenPom is all about the PPP...and when it was just Howard our's was stellar. Now I don't expect a 0.95 dPPP all season but it shows that our defense can be successful.

I look forward to that 0.95 dPPP

[Silkk the Shaka]

Not about Joe. About lack of Rowsey/Howard.

Howard on, Rowsey off: 0.95 dPPP (472 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard off: 1.05 dPPP (522 possessions)
Rowsey on, Howard on: 1.17 dPPP (1439 possessions)

KenPom is all about the PPP...and when it was just Howard our's was stellar. Now I don't expect a 0.95 dPPP all season but it shows that our defense can be successful.

I love this stat, and it's one of the reasons I think an AdjD rank in the top 50 is doable (with the understanding that it would be an insane jump from 182). Recognizing that 0.95 is likely a raw unadjusted number, any idea/estimate on what that would translate to in AdjD?

[Silkk the Shaka]

AdjO = 117.2 (16)
AdjD = 101.6 (93)
Overall = +15.6 (35)

To improve defense to the level you guys want, MU needs to slow tempo (not going to happen) and/or change their defensive footprint to focus on defending the paint versus extending the perimeter. Ed is key and will be a bigger defensive game changer than Joe. We need a defensive identity this year and that means the ability to make stops to break runs. If MU finds its footprint, a 99 AdjD is within hope.

On offense, we will play a bit slower and won't shoot as well (down a bit) from the perimeter than with Andrew...but we will be better around the basket.

I disagree, remember when we had basically no center the 3 amigos' senior year? They were still a top 50 D because DJames made the opposing PG's life a living hell. It all started there. Replacing Rowsey (loved the guy but he was a sieve) with a stopper like Chartouny at the point of attack will make a bigger impact than adding Ed to the mix (who I also think will make a big impact). Long story short a 100 slot improvement on D at minimum is my expectation, and I don't think it's at all unreasonable.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I love this stat, and it's one of the reasons I think an AdjD rank in the top 50 is doable (with the understanding that it would be an insane jump from 182). Recognizing that 0.95 is likely a raw unadjusted number, any idea/estimate on what that would translate to in AdjD?

Last year's MU defense averaged 110.3 raw or 303rd. If that ratio held, MU would be top 5. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I look forward to that 0.95 dPPP

As I said in the post you quoted, I don't expect 0.95, that would be absurd. But it does show that with the right personnel in the lineup our defense was successful.

You keep insisting that the issue is gameplan not personnel. How do you explain the stats above? Did our defensive gameplan change when it was only one of Howard and Rowsey in the game?

I am just trying to understand. I personally can't think of any explanation other than Rowsey/Howard, particularly Rowsey, was a significant drag on the defense but am open to hearing other perspectives.

[GGGG]

Or how do you explain that Wojo's earlier teams were better on defense?  I'm not saying he's a great defensive coach, but I really think that when you look at the numbers, Rowsey was simply a bad defender.  And Markus is average at best.

I think it's obvious that Wojo has recognized this considered the personnel he has added over the past 18 months. 

[brewcity77]

Or how do you explain that Wojo's earlier teams were better on defense?

I think the only team you can fairly compare was 2016. The 2015 team was his best defense, but we went zone that year because of severe roster limitations. We were also better in 2016, and that's probably a better indicator of what's possible, especially because I think 2019 will be far more talented top-to-bottom than 2016, but our sample size is limited.

I'm wary on this front. I know my numbers above are optimistic, but I'm a shameless homer in the months before the season. I think it's fair to worry about the scheme based on past results while also taking some optimism from those Rowsey splits from last year.

[GGGG]

I think the only team you can fairly compare was 2016. The 2015 team was his best defense, but we went zone that year because of severe roster limitations. We were also better in 2016, and that's probably a better indicator of what's possible, especially because I think 2019 will be far more talented top-to-bottom than 2016, but our sample size is limited.

I'm wary on this front. I know my numbers above are optimistic, but I'm a shameless homer in the months before the season. I think it's fair to worry about the scheme based on past results while also taking some optimism from those Rowsey splits from last year.

Let me put it another way...

I think Wojo's defensive problems are about 1/3 scheme and 2/3 personnel. 

[Silkk the Shaka]

Last year's MU defense averaged 110.3 raw or 303rd. If that ratio held, MU would be top 5. 

Got it, so even if you go by the average of the scenarios when one or the other was off the court (1.0 dPPP), then multiply by 0.96 (1.056 AdjD /1.103 Raw), that gets to an approximate AdjD of ~96, which is ~top 30. Not sure if any of that makes sense analytically but I'm going with it!

The defensive upside is huge (not expecting them to get there, just a plausible upside scenario)

[Silkk the Shaka]

I think the only team you can fairly compare was 2016. The 2015 team was his best defense, but we went zone that year because of severe roster limitations. We were also better in 2016, and that's probably a better indicator of what's possible, especially because I think 2019 will be far more talented top-to-bottom than 2016, but our sample size is limited.

I'm wary on this front. I know my numbers above are optimistic, but I'm a shameless homer in the months before the season. I think it's fair to worry about the scheme based on past results while also taking some optimism from those Rowsey splits from last year.

Good point on the 2016 comp, that team was significantly less talented and put up an AdjD of 100.1, I'm beginning to think my 100 prediction is too pessimistic...

[Dr. Blackheart]

As I said in the post you quoted, I don't expect 0.95, that would be absurd. But it does show that with the right personnel in the lineup our defense was successful.

You keep insisting that the issue is gameplan not personnel. How do you explain the stats above? Did our defensive gameplan change when it was only one of Howard and Rowsey in the game?

I am just trying to understand. I personally can't think of any explanation other than Rowsey/Howard, particularly Rowsey, was a significant drag on the defense but am open to hearing other perspectives.

First of all, let's be clear.  I never said it was the game plan and not the personnel. I said it is the personnel and the scheme.  The personnel he recruited to play his Duke scheme. His game plan was effective in limiting threes and hoping MU could outscore their opponents.  I could at least follow.

But then there were games like Purdue, Witchita, Xavier, Nova, Butler, Penn State where they had bigs who absolutely took us to town.  Usually a power forward.  Sam was overmatched on athleticism as they could go outside in. Marquette's defense at the rim, where opponents shot a fiery 67%, was a putrid 335 rank. At that rate, teams are better off statistically to shoot twos, and they did as MU was extending their pressure north of the circle (and picking up stupid fouls).

As I said, Joe will help significantly (although I think Sacar gets the start at the beginning of the season and Markus is the PG).  We agree. But Andrew and Markus weren't the only thing wrong with MU's defense, and your numbers over simply that.  Ed gives us athleticism, is a strong OR (14.3%) and DR (20.6%), and can block the ball (5%).  These all limit opponents' possessions, and are great numbers.

Let's hope we can now stop the Martins, Stevens, Kantars this season, which makes me most optimistic. Protect the paint first and then extend.

Btw, Pudner's value add had MU ~110 defensively and 16 offensively with our new guys.  I think our personnel beat that, but that is another benchmark to track to.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

First of all, let's be clear.  I never said it was the game plan and not the personnel. I said it is the personnel and the scheme.  The personnel he recruited to play his Duke scheme. His game plan was effective in limiting threes and hoping MU could outscore their opponents.  I could at least follow.

But then there were games like Purdue, Witchita, Xavier, Nova, Butler, Penn State where they had bigs who absolutely took us to town.  Usually a power forward.  Sam was overmatched on athleticism as they could go outside in. Marquette's defense at the rim, where opponents shot a fiery 67%, was a putrid 335 rank. At that rate, teams are better off statistically to shoot twos, and they did as MU was extending their pressure north of the circle (and picking up stupid fouls).

As I said, Joe will help significantly (although I think Sacar gets the start at the beginning of the season and Markus is the PG).  We agree. But Andrew and Markus weren't the only thing wrong with MU's defense, and your numbers over simply that.  Ed gives us athleticism, is a strong OR (14.3%) and DR (20.6%), and can block the ball (5%).  These all limit opponents' possessions, and are great numbers.

Let's hope we can now stop the Martins, Stevens, Kantars this season, which makes me most optimistic. Protect the paint first and then extend.

Btw, Pudner's value add had MU ~110 defensively and 16 offensively with our new guys.  I think our personnel beat that, but that is another benchmark to track to.

Thanks for the explanation. We agree on the problem (2P defense) but disagree on the cause. The bolded is where I think I vary the most from you. What I saw was a pair of PGs who couldn't defend a pick and roll properly or keep their man in front of them on the perimeter. You could hide one of them on defense but not two. This allowed wings and guards to penetrate with ease forcing our forwards to rotate which would result in easy dump off passes and fouls. You say Sam was overmatched, I say Sam was one of our two best defenders last season who constantly had to try and cover for other players' mistakes. His individual dPPP was second the team to Elliott last season.

Other than Purdue, I remember the games you mentioned very differently. Yes, in many of them their big man put up great 2P shooting numbers. But they were simply the beneficiaries of poor perimeter/pnr defense that allowed opposing guards and wings to run wild inside the arc.

I agree that individually Ed will bring more to the defense than Joe because of his rebounding and rim protection. But Joe is the more valuable add because he is replacing such a defensive liability. Defense is a team game and one bad defender brings the rest of the team down. Remove him and everyone else's defense improves.

[Newsdreams]

First of all, let's be clear.  I never said it was the game plan and not the personnel. I said it is the personnel and the scheme.  The personnel he recruited to play his Duke scheme. His game plan was effective in limiting threes and hoping MU could outscore their opponents.  I could at least follow.

But then there were games like Purdue, Witchita, Xavier, Nova, Butler, Penn State where they had bigs who absolutely took us to town.  Usually a power forward.  Sam was overmatched on athleticism as they could go outside in. Marquette's defense at the rim, where opponents shot a fiery 67%, was a putrid 335 rank. At that rate, teams are better off statistically to shoot twos, and they did as MU was extending their pressure north of the circle (and picking up stupid fouls).

As I said, Joe will help significantly (although I think Sacar gets the start at the beginning of the season and Markus is the PG).  We agree. But Andrew and Markus weren't the only thing wrong with MU's defense, and your numbers over simply that.  Ed gives us athleticism, is a strong OR (14.3%) and DR (20.6%), and can block the ball (5%).  These all limit opponents' possessions, and are great numbers.

Let's hope we can now stop the Martins, Stevens, Kantars this season, which makes me most optimistic. Protect the paint first and then extend.

Btw, Pudner's value add had MU ~110 defensively and 16 offensively with our new guys.  I think our personnel beat that, but that is another benchmark to track to.

Why would Wojo start Markus at PG even starting the season when he went and recruited Joe to be the PG. I can see Markus playing PG if the game is a blowout or some minutes here and there.

[Floorslapper]

Thanks for the explanation. We agree on the problem (2P defense) but disagree on the cause. The bolded is where I think I vary the most from you. What I saw was a pair of PGs who couldn't defend a pick and roll properly or keep their man in front of them on the perimeter. You could hide one of them on defense but not two. This allowed wings and guards to penetrate with ease forcing our forwards to rotate which would result in easy dump off passes and fouls. You say Sam was overmatched, I say Sam was one of our two best defenders last season who constantly had to try and cover for other players' mistakes. His individual dPPP was second the team to Elliott last season.

Which begs the question:  Why did Wojo not adjust and go zone all year, since he was intent on playing Andrew and Markus together a lot? 

We were going to be poor on defense regardless of zone or man, but in my view if you are going to play Andrew AND Markus together, zone would have been the lesser of two evils..

[Its DJOver]

Which begs the question:  Why did Wojo not adjust and go zone all year, since he was intent on playing Andrew and Markus together a lot? 

We were going to be poor on defense regardless of zone or man, but in my view if you are going to play Andrew AND Markus together, zone would have been the lesser of two evils..

Glad to see that you've moved on from this.

If you have two players as short as Markus and Andrew at the top of a 2-3.  You will literally be conceding, at best a lightly contested 3 from the top of the key every time, at worst, someone still drives right past them and dumps off to a big when help comes from the Center or Wings.  Despite your constant insistence that a zone was the only thing that could possibly ever work, the only time it did was in the second half of the Creighton game in Omaha, when Markus was injured, so we could only have one of Markus and Andrew out there.  Just because something works once, does not mean that it will work again in the future.