Gotta beat Ole Miss!!

[MU82]

Not to parrot the wades/BLM mantra that the next game is the biggest, but ...

This next game, Thursday in Charleston against Ole Miss, is huge.

First the obvious: Winning is always better than the alternative. But there's more. Ole Miss is ranked 30-some spots higher than us in kenpom, so it would be a chance to get a nice quality win on a neutral site. And then if we win we get to face another quality opponent, West Virginia, on Friday (assuming Huggy beats Elon). And that sets us up for a third quality opponent on Sunday. So beyond giving us a chance to win the event, which would be wonderful obviously, winning Thursday gives us a chance to really help our resume. Even a loss to WVU wouldn't be tragic, especially if we follow with a win in the third-place game.

But if we lose Thursday, that's a missed opportunity against a quality team ... plus it probably will make us have to play Elon instead of WVU in the second round -- and all that really gives us is a chance to suffer a bad loss.

A few years ago in our best season under Wojo, I remember thinking that the Louisville game in the pre-Thanksgiving event could set the tone for the entire season ... and that's exactly what it did. I have a similar feeling this time. Gotta beat Ole Miss!

We Are Marquette!

[MuggsyB]

Enormous game.  That's why I was saying we need to re-focus quickly after last night.  We're going to have to find a way to rebound the ball much better moving forward.  It has to be a total team effort, not just the guys up front.  Box out, catch the ball and secure it.  It's highly unusual to win when your opponent thoroughly dominates you on the glass.  The mindset should be that it will not happen anymore.  If we can punk Ole Miss we may get Huggy after a full day in Charleston.  That means he could not be at his best with the assortment of high quality restaurants. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Yeah it’s definitely a big one.

Just the difference in schedule strength that will come with a win compared to a loss

Of course, assuming WVU wins.

[1SE]

Not to parrot the wades/BLM mantra that the next game is the biggest, but ...

This next game, Thursday in Charleston against Ole Miss, is huge.

First the obvious: Winning is always better than the alternative. But there's more. Ole Miss is ranked 30-some spots higher than us in kenpom, so it would be a chance to get a nice quality win on a neutral site. And then if we win we get to face another quality opponent, West Virginia, on Friday (assuming Huggy beats Elon). And that sets us up for a third quality opponent on Sunday. So beyond giving us a chance to win the event, which would be wonderful obviously, winning Thursday gives us a chance to really help our resume. Even a loss to WVU wouldn't be tragic, especially if we follow with a win in the third-place game.

But if we lose Thursday, that's a missed opportunity against a quality team ... plus it probably will make us have to play Elon instead of WVU in the second round -- and all that really gives us is a chance to suffer a bad loss.

A few years ago in our best season under Wojo, I remember thinking that the Louisville game in the pre-Thanksgiving event could set the tone for the entire season ... and that's exactly what it did. I have a similar feeling this time. Gotta beat Ole Miss!

We Are Marquette!

Put "the letter" in motion?

[StillAWarrior]

But if we lose Thursday, that's a missed opportunity against a quality team ... plus it probably will make us have to play Elon instead of WVU in the second round -- and all that really gives us is a chance to suffer a bad loss.

You have no idea. My son graduated from Elon...I cannot lose bragging rights. Don't want to even risk it. Beat Ole Miss!

[Shooter McGavin]

Agreed 82.  Big game coming up.  Opportunity to get more good games on the schedule benefiting us with another quality win and experience against more Big East level competition. 

[brewcity77]

I'm going to be the contrarian here. I want to beat Ole Miss, but I think it's far less must-win than it was last night. You want to keep the momentum and I'd really love to see WVU and the Bonnies (I love that matchup for us), but losing to Ole Miss won't be a bad loss and would likely put us in a good spot to come out of Charleston 2-1, which is a good outcome regardless of who ends up in those other games.

Last night totally had that found money feel, so going into Charleston now kind of feels like we're playing with house money.

[MuggsyB]

I think everyone would agree we're going to have some ups and downs this year.  However, avoiding the "bad loss" is important down the road.  We also want to have as many quality win opportunities as possible.  Getting a win Thurs would probably give us two more opportunities for solid wins. 

BTW Wisconsin looked pretty awful last night.  They were without their best player but that team has limited talent.  And, as others pointed out, their constant complaining is infantile and totally inexcusable.  We all know Flopison's nonsense, perhaps he wasn't hugged as a child.  That's a game that should be in Milwaukee but we must take care of business and play with poise amidst what I suspect will be some dirty tactics.

[MU82]

I'm going to be the contrarian here. I want to beat Ole Miss, but I think it's far less must-win than it was last night. You want to keep the momentum and I'd really love to see WVU and the Bonnies (I love that matchup for us), but losing to Ole Miss won't be a bad loss and would likely put us in a good spot to come out of Charleston 2-1, which is a good outcome regardless of who ends up in those other games.

Last night totally had that found money feel, so going into Charleston now kind of feels like we're playing with house money.

Is there a way to calculate, today, what going 2-1 with wins over Ole Miss and, say, Clemson would mean vs. going 2-1 with wins over Elon and Boise State?

Otherwise, I just really want to win that tournament opener and not be relegated to the "loser's bracket" right out of the gate. If we lay an egg Thursday, it takes some shine off of beating Illinois. All IMHO of course.

[avid1010]

I'm going to be the contrarian here. I want to beat Ole Miss, but I think it's far less must-win than it was last night. You want to keep the momentum and I'd really love to see WVU and the Bonnies (I love that matchup for us), but losing to Ole Miss won't be a bad loss and would likely put us in a good spot to come out of Charleston 2-1, which is a good outcome regardless of who ends up in those other games.

Last night totally had that found money feel, so going into Charleston now kind of feels like we're playing with house money.

Without knowing for sure who MU plays in Charleston...the concerning part is the Wisconsin (away), Kansas State (away), UCLA games prior to entering conference play.  Two wins in Charleston is likely fine any way you want to cut it, but they are guaranteed four solid opponents prior to conference...would like to see 2 wins against those four.  I'm guessing they will be dogs in all four of those games.  Getting that UI win was such a big deal...

[brewcity77]

Is there a way to calculate, today, what going 2-1 with wins over Ole Miss and, say, Clemson would mean vs. going 2-1 with wins over Elon and Boise State?

Otherwise, I just really want to win that tournament opener and not be relegated to the "loser's bracket" right out of the gate. If we lay an egg Thursday, it takes some shine off of beating Illinois. All IMHO of course.

In years past, it would've meant more. I know people talk about Strength of Schedule, but it really doesn't matter the way it used to. What matters is margins. Either winning by more than you're expected to or losing by less than you should. Generally, it comes down to season results, so if you are performing 2-3 points per night better than your expected, you are going to put yourself in good position. If we beat Ole Miss and Clemson by 1 each and lose to WVU by 25, that's not great, whereas if we lose to Ole Miss by 1 and beat Elon by 30 and Boise by 15, we'll be moving up because we exceed expectations in all three games.

I think SOS is the last factor anyone looks at when it comes to the bracket, and only when there's a tie to be broken. In RPI, it was huge, but at the end of the day, no matter what the NCAA says, NET only cares about margins. When you win, win big, when you lose, lose small.

[MU82]

In years past, it would've meant more. I know people talk about Strength of Schedule, but it really doesn't matter the way it used to. What matters is margins. Either winning by more than you're expected to or losing by less than you should. Generally, it comes down to season results, so if you are performing 2-3 points per night better than your expected, you are going to put yourself in good position. If we beat Ole Miss and Clemson by 1 each and lose to WVU by 25, that's not great, whereas if we lose to Ole Miss by 1 and beat Elon by 30 and Boise by 15, we'll be moving up because we exceed expectations in all three games.

I think SOS is the last factor anyone looks at when it comes to the bracket, and only when there's a tie to be broken. In RPI, it was huge, but at the end of the day, no matter what the NCAA says, NET only cares about margins. When you win, win big, when you lose, lose small.

Frankly, to me, that's effed up. There shouldn't be an incentive to us running up the score against Elon or Duke beating Presbyterian by 70 instead of by 60. But it's good to have the info, brew, so thanks.

[cheebs09]

I think I’m most looking for them to come out and play hard against Ole Miss. As others have called out, in the last 7 years, we’d get a big win and come out the next game looking like we were hungover from celebrating.

With a young team, I won’t be super upset if we show a bit of a letdown. It is part of the learning process. However, if we come out with our hair on fire and look hungry to build on the Illinois win, I will be very encouraged. Even if we don’t end up winning.

[tower912]

First game outside of Fiserv.   Defense travels.  Will they be able to sustain the effort without the crowd?

[brewcity77]

Frankly, to me, that's effed up. There shouldn't be an incentive to us running up the score against Elon or Duke beating Presbyterian by 70 instead of by 60. But it's good to have the info, brew, so thanks.

I don't think that was the intention when they created it, especially as they talked about all the factors that went into NET. They also talked about limiting the scoring margin at a cap of 10, but it's an artificial cap because NET primarily operates on efficiency, so if you win a 70 possession game by a score of 90-50, the scoring cap is only a bonus added on to the efficiency margin of 1.29 points per possession on offense vs 0.71 points per possession on defense.

Ultimately, it's a far better metric than the RPI. I do think there should be a difference if Marquette beats Elon by 1 or 20, because past scoring margins are the most reliable predictor of future results, but I'm not sure there should be a difference between beating them by 30 or 40 if it's a game that's in your control the entire time.

The scoring cap actually became a scoring bonus that is added to your efficiency margin but the bonus caps at 10. What they should have done was create a regressive efficiency margin so as the margin grows, the impact of it lessens. That would mean you still are rewarded for the bigger margins, but the reward lessens the further up you go, so that 60 or 70 point win example would be negligible, but the difference between a 1 and 11 point win would be significant despite the same scoring margin change.

[MU82]

I don't think that was the intention when they created it, especially as they talked about all the factors that went into NET. They also talked about limiting the scoring margin at a cap of 10, but it's an artificial cap because NET primarily operates on efficiency, so if you win a 70 possession game by a score of 90-50, the scoring cap is only a bonus added on to the efficiency margin of 1.29 points per possession on offense vs 0.71 points per possession on defense.

Ultimately, it's a far better metric than the RPI. I do think there should be a difference if Marquette beats Elon by 1 or 20, because past scoring margins are the most reliable predictor of future results, but I'm not sure there should be a difference between beating them by 30 or 40 if it's a game that's in your control the entire time.

The scoring cap actually became a scoring bonus that is added to your efficiency margin but the bonus caps at 10. What they should have done was create a regressive efficiency margin so as the margin grows, the impact of it lessens. That would mean you still are rewarded for the bigger margins, but the reward lessens the further up you go, so that 60 or 70 point win example would be negligible, but the difference between a 1 and 11 point win would be significant despite the same scoring margin change.

Agreed. You're hired!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In years past, it would've meant more. I know people talk about Strength of Schedule, but it really doesn't matter the way it used to. What matters is margins. Either winning by more than you're expected to or losing by less than you should. Generally, it comes down to season results, so if you are performing 2-3 points per night better than your expected, you are going to put yourself in good position. If we beat Ole Miss and Clemson by 1 each and lose to WVU by 25, that's not great, whereas if we lose to Ole Miss by 1 and beat Elon by 30 and Boise by 15, we'll be moving up because we exceed expectations in all three games.

I think SOS is the last factor anyone looks at when it comes to the bracket, and only when there's a tie to be broken. In RPI, it was huge, but at the end of the day, no matter what the NCAA says, NET only cares about margins. When you win, win big, when you lose, lose small.

This is correct but supposedly the selection committee does value the Quadrants. Losing to Ole Miss likely guarantees a Q4 game and a Q2/Q3 game whereas a win likely guarantees two Q1/Q2 games. Means nothing if you lose those Q1/Q2 games but it at least gives you two opportunities for significant wins.

[brewcity77]

This is correct but supposedly the selection committee does value the Quadrants. Losing to Ole Miss likely guarantees a Q4 game and a Q2/Q3 game whereas a win likely guarantees two Q1/Q2 games. Means nothing if you lose those Q1/Q2 games but it at least gives you two opportunities for significant wins.

That's a good point. I'd definitely prefer 2-1 on the winning side of the bracket to 2-1 on the losing side, but I'm not sure once you get to the 2-1 losing vs 1-2 winning sides debate. The Quadrants for Charleston will all be neutral site. Here's the breakdown of where teams are expected currently if NET were to mimic kenpom and finish where teams are at now:

Quadrant 1 (1-50): #33 St. Bonaventure, #48 West Virginia
Quadrant 2 (51-100): #54 Ole Miss, #55 Clemson, #73 Boise State
Quadrant 3 (101-200): #109 Temple, #200 Elon
Quadrant 4 (201+): None

Clearly, a lot of those teams are very close to quadrants, but I think I'd prefer a Q2 loss to Ole Miss with a Q3 win over Elon and Q2 win over Boise to a Q2 win over Ole Miss followed by a Q1 loss to WVU and Q2 loss to Clemson, assuming everything goes according to kenpom. Ultimately, I will always cheer for a win, but looking at this field, I don't think a loss will hurt us as much as it some other tournaments we've been in. 2012 and 2017 Maui were big in terms of SOS based on the first game, and that was when RPI was the metric of choice.

I will admit, I really want to see St. Bonaventure in Charleston, which probably means being on the winners side of the bracket. I think our downhill style would put a lot of pressure on their defense and short rotation. I think we could wear them out with pace and foul trouble and like our odds of getting that win. But it probably means beating Ole Miss and WVU first, and that's a tall order.

[MU82]

This is correct but supposedly the selection committee does value the Quadrants. Losing to Ole Miss likely guarantees a Q4 game and a Q2/Q3 game whereas a win likely guarantees two Q1/Q2 games. Means nothing if you lose those Q1/Q2 games but it at least gives you two opportunities for significant wins.

Good info, TAMU. Thanks.

I think I'd prefer a Q2 loss to Ole Miss with a Q3 win over Elon and Q2 win over Boise to a Q2 win over Ole Miss followed by a Q1 loss to WVU and Q2 loss to Clemson

How 'bout a Q2 win over Ole Miss, a Q1 loss to WVU and a Q2 win over Clemson?

I want to be on the winner's side just because I always want to win every game. But I also want all the intangible goodies that could come with beating Ole Miss.

Now ... how do we go about getting you and TAMU in charge of the rating system?

[Herman Cain]

I am in the camp that wants a win over Ole Miss. To me every non conference game is a must win game. Our 20 game conference schedule is a brutal gauntlet, and I want to see as many wins as possible going into conference season.

[brewcity77]

Good info, TAMU. Thanks.

How 'bout a Q2 win over Ole Miss, a Q1 loss to WVU and a Q2 win over Clemson?

I want to be on the winner's side just because I always want to win every game. But I also want all the intangible goodies that could come with beating Ole Miss.

Now ... how do we go about getting you and TAMU in charge of the rating system?

Like I said, 2-1 on the winning side, no matter how it comes (I'm okay with Q2 over Ole Miss, Q1 over WVU, and losing a Q1 to SBU too) is the better outcome than 2-1 on the losing side. But it might be easier to get to 2-1 if we lose to Ole Miss than if we beat them simply because getting one against WVU/SBU/Clemson might be harder than getting two against Elon/Boise/Temple, assuming the expected results hold.

Regardless, this tournament is now house money. Last night was one of those injections of energy and program faith that will last at least a few weeks for me, especially in a year where my hope has been NIT.

[MU82]

Like I said, 2-1 on the winning side, no matter how it comes (I'm okay with Q2 over Ole Miss, Q1 over WVU, and losing a Q1 to SBU too) is the better outcome than 2-1 on the losing side. But it might be easier to get to 2-1 if we lose to Ole Miss than if we beat them simply because getting one against WVU/SBU/Clemson might be harder than getting two against Elon/Boise/Temple, assuming the expected results hold.

Regardless, this tournament is now house money. Last night was one of those injections of energy and program faith that will last at least a few weeks for me, especially in a year where my hope has been NIT.

Well, I know what you're saying about house money, but we've both been around Scoop for a few years. Shyte the bed in Charleston, and last night's win becomes a "fluke" and a distant memory. So let's hope there ain't no bed-shytting (for all kinds of reasons).

[brewcity77]

Well, I know what you're saying about house money, but we've both been around Scoop for a few years. Shyte the bed in Charleston, and last night's win becomes a "fluke" and a distant memory. So let's hope there ain't no bed-shytting (for all kinds of reasons).

Of course it does, but I've also been around Scoop long enough to know I won't let the UnSmart fans get me down.

[MU82]

Of course it does, but I've also been around Scoop long enough to know I won't let the UnSmart fans get me down.

Nice!

[jfp61]

Of course it does, but I've also been around Scoop long enough to know I won't let the UnSmart fans get me down.

If they arn't Smart fans that means they are Wojo fans.