Big East to Implode Sunday? Mass Exodus being Predicted

[NersEllenson]

I'm fine with basketball only, but ten teams just isn't enough. Once the excitement fades, you'll end up with a conference that averages 2-4 bids a year, like the A-10. I'm not saying the quality won't be there, just that the bids won't be.

I partially see your point Brew - yet the Big 10 has recently gotten 6 and 7 teams in NCAA and only has 11 teams.  So long as members of a proposed 10-team league play a very solid out of conference pre-season schedule -and get a few solid wins there, a 10-team league could still send 5-7 teams.  The reality is that the proposed 10 team league would NOT be the absolute beating the Big East was - and you'd probably have 5 teams with conference records in the 13-5 range....which coupled with a few solid out of conference wins gives you a strong resume.

[GGGG]

Because this was always about basketball for the ACC. Football is a convenient angle, but I firmly believe this was about solidifying the ACC as the best basketball conference.

No it was about solidifying themselves as a conference...period.  There were all these rumors about the SEC going after FSU, Clemson, Va Tech, etc., and they felt that they had to do something.  Be proactive - like so many here wanted the BE to be.

But I think they screwed up.  They did something that was good for the ACC, but not necessarily good for its individual members, who now have to share everything 14 ways...but I doubt that Pitt and Syracuse will actually bring in more marginal revenue than they will cost.

In many ways, they ended up making two conferences weaker with that move.

[4everwarriors]

Boom goes the Big East

[brewcity77]

This conference would settle in around what C-USA was when we were in it, and settle in as the 6th best basketball conference year in and year out.

As an east coaster, what kills me the most about all of this is that now I get to see basically every game Marquette plays (excluding cupcakes) without any premiuim channels, and in this new conference I won't be able to.

I don't think so. Georgetown and Villanova have been fairly elite of late, usually in the top-15. Marquette, Notre Dame, Xavier, Temple, and Butler are pretty routinely around the top-25. DePaul, UMass, and St. John's are showing signs of improvement in mass markets. Dayton, Richmond, and George Mason may not be powers, but they have been pretty consistently good and could at least continue respectably.

The conference would fall behind the ACC and be about even with the Big Ten. Not as many elite teams, but more quality top to bottom. I think it'd be as good as the PAC-X and depending on what happens, better than the SEC and Big 12. What if we kept UConn in there along the lines of UMass and Temple?

It won't be the unquestioned top of the pyramid like we are every year in the Big East, but after the ACC, I think there's plenty of room for the other leagues, and I think a 14 or 16 team basketball-only could compete, if not for second, certainly for third, with the projected BCS conferences. The only question is if someone can emerge as a perennial elite team, like UNC or Duke in the ACC, Ohio State or Michigan State in the Big Ten, Kansas in the Big 12, Kentucky in the SEC, or UCLA in the Pac-12. If one program (UConn) can stay at that consistent level, there's every chance we can be right there with them despite going basketball-only.

However, it will take ravaging a number (Horizon, A-10, CAA) of other leagues to do it.

[We R Final Four]

I don't think so. Georgetown and Villanova have been fairly elite of late, usually in the top-15. Marquette, Notre Dame, Xavier, Temple, and Butler are pretty routinely around the top-25. DePaul, UMass, and St. John's are showing signs of improvement in mass markets. Dayton, Richmond, and George Mason may not be powers, but they have been pretty consistently good and could at least continue respectably.

The conference would fall behind the ACC and be about even with the Big Ten. Not as many elite teams, but more quality top to bottom. I think it'd be as good as the PAC-X and depending on what happens, better than the SEC and Big 12. What if we kept UConn in there along the lines of UMass and Temple?

It won't be the unquestioned top of the pyramid like we are every year in the Big East, but after the ACC, I think there's plenty of room for the other leagues, and I think a 14 or 16 team basketball-only could compete, if not for second, certainly for third, with the projected BCS conferences. The only question is if someone can emerge as a perennial elite team, like UNC or Duke in the ACC, Ohio State or Michigan State in the Big Ten, Kansas in the Big 12, Kentucky in the SEC, or UCLA in the Pac-12. If one program (UConn) can stay at that consistent level, there's every chance we can be right there with them despite going basketball-on
However, it will take ravaging a number (Horizon, A-10, CAA) of other leagues to do it.

depaul may be in a mass market--but their improvement is certainly debatable.

[brewcity77]

depaul may be in a mass market--but their improvement is certainly debatable.

Cleveland Melvin is a very good player, as is that PG they have. Purnell's team has some promise, and he's starting to get a few recruits. No one really high level committed for another year or two (can't remember off-hand, but they have a top-100 PG coming in) but he's getting the kind of utility guys that will win you some games. Their roster is already better than it was before he arrived, I'm not saying they'll be a perennial top-25, but they seem to be on track to get to the middle of the league.

[muhs03]

Cleveland Melvin is a very good player, as is that PG they have. Purnell's team has some promise, and he's starting to get a few recruits. No one really high level committed for another year or two (can't remember off-hand, but they have a top-100 PG coming in) but he's getting the kind of utility guys that will win you some games. Their roster is already better than it was before he arrived, I'm not saying they'll be a perennial top-25, but they seem to be on track to get to the middle of the league.

This is Melvin's last year.

[Jay Bee]

This is Melvin's last year.

Last year of what?  Try again, homie.

[muhs03]

Last year of what?  Try again, homie.

Last year of playing at DePaul, of course. I suppose it is possible that when you spoke to him he told you something different than what he said to me when I talked to him....

[Pakuni]

Butler is an after thought without Brad Stevens there... and keeping them around for just a coach is probably a bad idea.

In the 10 seasons before Stevens, Butler made six NCAA tourneys, advancing to the Sweet 16 twice. They were a solid program before Stevens, certainly more so than several of the teams being proposed ahead of them for this hoops-only conference (see: Seton Hall, Rutgers, Dayton, Providence, UMass, etc.).

[Zephyr820]

Regardless of the combination, Butler will always rank first in NCAA Tournament wins this century with 16.

By comparison, Xavier has 13.

Butler is also the 2nd most winningest (to Kansas) in the last 5 years and 6th over the last 10.

---
It not only merits entry, it would be one of the top programs in the league.

[brewcity77]

Regardless of the combination, Butler will always rank first in NCAA Tournament wins this century with 16.

By comparison, Xavier has 13.

Butler is also the 2nd most winningest (to Kansas) in the last 5 years and 6th over the last 10.

---
It not only merits entry, it would be one of the top programs in the league.

But the skeptics of Butler have a fair point. First, ten of those wins have come in the last two years. Two amazing, remarkable years, but now that Hayward, Mack, and Howard are all gone, there's every chance they will struggle to even make the tournament this year (as they did last year...they'd have been a bubble team had they lost to UW-M in the Horizon final).

If Stevens left, would they maintain their success? It's possible, but it's also possible that they would fall off. Many more successful programs have fallen off after the departure of a quality coach. Just because they didn't when Stevens was hired doesn't mean they wouldn't if he replaced Coach K at Duke.

And regardless, their success is over the past decade. When you talk about Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, St. John's, Temple, or Xavier, you are talking about schools that have at least twice as many appearances as Butler does.

They merit entry, but those that think they could fall off have just as much justification to their claims as you do in saying they'd be a top program. FWIW, I would fully support their inclusion.

[Skatastrophy]

Butler will always rank first in NCAA Tournament wins this century with 16.

I'm not sure you're aware of how long a century is.  Or that was just poorly worded?

[Skatastrophy]

BTW, here's some actual content on the subject of the meetings happening today:

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ericcrawford/2011/10/02/sunday-conference-conversation-meetings-today/

[Pakuni]

If Stevens left, would they maintain their success? It's possible, but it's also possible that they would fall off. Many more successful programs have fallen off after the departure of a quality coach. Just because they didn't when Stevens was hired doesn't mean they wouldn't if he replaced Coach K at Duke.

That's a fair point, but you could say that about every program in this proposed league. Could Georgetown fall off after the departure of a quality coach? Oh yeah, they did. Could St. John's? Could Marquette?
Why single out Butler forthis conundrum?

What we can say is that between 2000 and 2007, Butler lost three coaches who had taken them to the NCAA tourney. And every time, they replaced him with a coach that's found equal or greater success. Does any other(non elite)  program have that kind of record of success when it comes to maintaining their level amid coaching chages? MU sure doesn't.

[Zephyr820]

I'm sorry.  There is nothing to be "skeptical" about.

There's no one in that league, in a relevant time frame (say post 64 team expansion of 85) that is more accomplished save 1 or 2.

It doesn't matter either way, but it's ludicrously lopsided vs. almost all. (and not just the Dayton's who have two Tournament wins since 94, but half of the sitting Big East.  Providence, Seton Hall, Depaul...Really?)

I'm not sure what the Big East intends to do but if it wants to go forward without football the only way to stay "high major" is to be as legitimate as possible.  That means constructing the best league of the conference's revenue sport - basketball.

A perennial Top 25 program, sans a scholarship football program, aren't exactly growing on trees.

[mug644]

That's a fair point, but you could say that about every program in this proposed league. Could Georgetown fall off after the departure of a quality coach? Oh yeah, they did. Could St. John's? Could Marquette?
Why single out Butler forthis conundrum?

What we can say is that between 2000 and 2007, Butler lost three coaches who had taken them to the NCAA tourney. And every time, they replaced him with a coach that's found equal or greater success. Does any other(non elite)  program have that kind of record of success when it comes to maintaining their level amid coaching chages? MU sure doesn't.

Xavier springs quickly to mind. Perhaps Gonzaga too, but that was just one coaching change.

[GGGG]

BTW, here's some actual content on the subject of the meetings happening today:

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ericcrawford/2011/10/02/sunday-conference-conversation-meetings-today/

Man, how crappy a football conference are you when Navy and Air Force actually improve your power rating.  Not good for basketball if they are full members.

[nyg]

Man, how crappy a football conference are you when Navy and Air Force actually improve your power rating.  Not good for basketball if they are full members.

Sitting on the wooden bleacher seats at the Naval Academy watching MU play in front of 2,500 fans would be cool.  The BE basketball is a bigger stage than Leigh, Bucknell, etc.   

[Lennys Tap]

Man, how crappy a football conference are you when Navy and Air Force actually improve your power rating.  Not good for basketball if they are full members.

Has anyone even suggested the possibility that they would be full members?

[Tulsa Warrior]

All sports except BB.

[avid1010]

Man, how crappy a football conference are you when Navy and Air Force actually improve your power rating.  Not good for basketball if they are full members.

I guess you could also apply that to the move by the ACC to take Pitt and Cuse....how bad are they when the BEAST can loose them, take Navy and Air Force, and improve the strength of football in the conference.  There's an outside chance that Dixon and Boehiem may never coach in the ACC (or spend little time there), BEAST football will be stronger than before Cuse/Pitt decided to leave, UNC and Miami get hit with serious sanctions, and the ACC isn't looking so great anymore.  If a a couple of BEAST basketball teams can show big improvements, it might not be as bad as first thought.  If St. John's is able to return it's baskeball program to a regular top 25 team it would be great for the conference.

[GGGG]

Has anyone even suggested the possibility that they would be full members?

The article linked didn't suggest they wouldn't be. 

All sports except BB.

Is that serious?  That would be pretty insulting.  What would Air Force do with their basketball team?

[war1980rior]

Sitting on the wooden bleacher seats at the Naval Academy watching MU play in front of 2,500 fans would be cool.  The BE basketball is a bigger stage than Leigh, Bucknell, etc.   

Navy stopped playing in the fieldhouse a long time ago.  They play in Alumni Hall (also known as "The House that David Built").  Smaller, but a superb facility.  Sorry, no wooden bleachers.  Holds a little over 5K.

[Marqus Howard]

I read that the possibility of SMU came up in the meeting today, as well as other well-discussed possibilities like UCF, Army, Navy, etc.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/7051020/presidents-chancellors-give-commissioner-ok-expand-big-east-conference