Markus and the idea that it's impossible to project

[mu03eng]

[GGGG]

I watched the 4Th quarter of the quarter final game and all of the championship game and that is all I have seen of Howard. What I noticed was his tendency on offense to run for the three point line and hang out there waving his had for the ball. I did see him make a couple of very impressive twos. It is hard for me to compare him to players who were not on the court with him. However, in spite of his shooting I do not think he has any chance of beating out Carter for the point guard spot. Carter is bigger, stronger and quicker (quickness is the hardest thing for me to judge, but Howard did not blow me away with his quickness) than Howard. Wilson is bigger and quicker than Howard. JJJ is bigger and quicker than Howard. Haanif is bigger than Howard. Than there is Rowsey who is about the same height and has much more experience than Howard. I am not saying that Howard will not become a very good player, but I do believe he does not play much next year, because of the number of experienced guards we have on the team. His strength is three point shooting, but this team already has a lot of three point shooters. I think Wojo is going to still value taking the ball to the basket versus camping shooters on the three point line. However, it is up to the coach to build a team around special talents of players so who knows? Wojo essentially let Henry do what ever he wanted to do, so maybe he will let Howard camp out on the three point line. It is probably harder to judge what Wojo is planning than what Howard's skillset is.

Seriously?  How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?

JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter.  That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team. 

[MU82]

I don't read most of your posts. This is the second time you've done this. I haven't called you out on anything in this thread. I was referencing to someone else. Cripes, get a grip.

See?

dgies156 is who I was talking about.

I'm the one who wants to be 'smarter'? Haha... fall back, bud. (And an apology is in order)

Did you or did you not use me as an example here, even after I responded nicely to you in an earlier thread?

Look, I'm not going to get into a pissing match with you. Chicos and Smuggles McHeisy have been fun enough.

Enjoy the week. I plan to. See ya in some other thread down the line.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Seriously?  How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?

JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter.  That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team.

My reaction as well.

[brandx]

Did you or did you not use me as an example here, even after I responded nicely to you in an earlier thread?

Look, I'm not going to get into a pissing match with you. Chicos and Smuggles McHeisy have been fun enough.

Enjoy the week. I plan to. See ya in some other thread down the line.

I agree with you, Mike. JB spends a lot of time on this and is obviously one of the more knowledgeable posters about HS kids, but I won't waste my time on a Chicas wannabe.

Freeport posts with class ALL of the time when discussing players. JB would do well to learn some things from him..

[bilsu]

Seriously?  How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?

JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter.  That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team.

Well I stated that is all I have seen him play, which is a qualifying statement. I have no doubt, if he played 30 minutes a game at MU this season he would average double figures. However, I can say the same thing about Wilson, JJJ, Haanif, Reinhardt, Rowsey and Fischer ( I know Fischer is not a guard). I also think that Anim would average double figures, if he was allowed to play 30 minutes a game, but that will not happen. That means Howard has to be better at the other things players need to do on the court than the other players. MU's offense will be fine. What they need be better at is defense, rebounding and turnovers and how well Howard can do this will determine how much he plays. Howard did do a good job of staying in front of his player on defense, but I did not come away with the impression that he was a better defender than the other guards on MU's team. All the players mentioned above have division 1 basketball experience. I cannot judge how Howard will play point, since he played shooting guard when I watched him play. It is hard to picture a player being able to beat out Carter, who is a point guard.

[Henry Sugar]

Folks on here believe "it's impossible to project" how Markus will do.

It's not.

What's your confidence interval on his ORtg, Usage, and MPG?

Mine
ORtg 90-120
Usage 15% - 25%
MPG 5 - 30

I don't think it's impossible to project either. However, my confidence interval of how he is actually going to do is so wide that the projections are useless.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Do you think you'd stand a chance against me one on one, up to 15, 1's and 2's?

I played volleyball with these cats several weeks ago. My fingers straight up split.. is that normal? Had to put NewSkin on 'em to heal it. But I was taller than most of them and slammed that puny ball on their heads (nh)

I believe you could whip me in volleyball.. bball? Me win, no problem bahdee.

Yes...but what about Ners???

[Jay Bee]

What's your confidence interval on his ORtg, Usage, and MPG?

Mine
ORtg 90-120
Usage 15% - 25%
MPG 5 - 30

I don't think it's impossible to project either. However, my confidence interval of how he is actually going to do is so wide that the projections are useless.

I'll close them up a little bit... 96 - 114; 17% - 23%; 12-26

He's a kid who I think will do whatever you ask of him... what will his role be? I think he's capable of a lot... not sure they'll ask it of him though

108, 21%, 18 is my "no range allowed", quick guess

[Henry Sugar]

I'll close them up a little bit... 96 - 114; 17% - 23%; 12-26

He's a kid who I think will do whatever you ask of him... what will his role be? I think he's capable of a lot... not sure they'll ask it of him though

108, 21%, 18 is my "no range allowed", quick guess

I'm also accounting for injury in my lower ranges.

108/21% would be an excellent first year contribution. For a guy in the #25 - #50 recruiting range, I think that's at the top end. However, given his experience with USA basketball, one could place him closer to the top end.

I'm pessimistic about freshmen in general, so I'd bet the lower half of your confidence intervals. Having said that, I think your numbers are reasonable.