Question on Henry's announcement

[GGGG]

I look at that particular Mock Draft as it consistently has had Henry lower although he has trended up.

So you look at that particular site, even though it has a history of not being as accurate, simply because he has him going lower?

How on earth does that make sense?

[rocket surgeon]

Marquette.....................   30   42  -   72         FINAL SCORE 90-72
Xavier........................   46   44  -   90
2016 Big East Tournament - Quarterfinals

13 Ellenson, Henry..... f  4-9    1-3    5-6    0  3  3   4  14  0  1  2  0  28


my thoughts/hopes-this may have been(above) the biggest game to enter in to HE's decision making process. add this to 
20-13  Conf.
8-10  Home
12-7  Away
6-5  Neutral
2-1 
   plus a wisconsin guy wants to go out on a higher note and show that he can make the players around him better.  barring an injury or a "life event", his draft status will not change much, only his maturity and educational level. 

i point this out as, yes, i know HE is young, but check out the part where brewtown andy notes HE's struggling with players of similar size-at the college level.  now, multiply that by 100 for the NBA...hmmmmm.  i don't think the D-league is an option here, but there are a number of things that will be taken in to consideration here.  yes, HE's potential is the BIG VARIABLE

Offensive fouls are killing this team's offensive efficiency.  Straight up murdering it in its sleep, suffocating possessions before they have a chance to live to their best possible potential: a made field goal.

Who are the biggest offenders?  Well, let's look, shall we?

Player   Off. Fouls   % of Team OffFouls   % of PF   % of TO
Henry Ellenson   16   23.2   27.6   26.2
Luke Fischer   12   17.4   18.5   30
Haanif Cheatham   9   13   16.7   12.7
Sandy Cohen   7   10.1   10.1   22.6
Traci Carter   6   8.7   8.8   10.7
Matt Heldt   6   8.7   37.5   75
Duane Wilson   5   7.2   9.4   9.3
Jajuan Johnson   4   5.8   12.9   13.3
Wally Ellenson   3   4.3   10.3   60
Sacar Anim   1   1.4   11.1   20
In addition to pointing out who has the most offensive fouls and the percentage of the team's offensive fouls that they account for, I also threw in a column showing you how many of their own personal fouls are occupied by those offensive fouls, and the same thing for their personal turnover total.

I don't know if there's really any kind of official trends or statistical analysis to be pulled out of this, but these are the things that jumped out at me from these numbers:

It's not exactly a secret that Henry Ellenson isn't the most efficient player on the face of the planet, but accounting for 20+% of the team's offensive fouls is really not helping his whole deal.  Also not helping: spending more than 25% of his fouls and turnovers on offensive fouls.
How much of this is just Ellenson struggling with physicality against players that are more similar to him in size?  Did you watch him play for Rice Lake?  Let's put it this way: There wasn't a lot of dudes that had any chance of defending a player of Henry Ellenson's size and agility in the north woods of Wisconsin.  Look at Matt Heldt's line in that table.  He only has six offensive fouls on the season, but that's 38% of his total fouls (a lot) and 75% of his turnovers (a whole hell of a lot).  Heldt's kind of in the same circumstance as Ellenson as far as the size goes, and he seems to be struggling with the offensive end of things just as much, if not more.  In Neenah's games, was it easier for Heldt to make a quick move with his long legs and arms and suddenly be just way past some poor 6'5" sap who got stuck defending Heldt because he was the tallest guy at his school?  Absolutely.  Same thing for Ellenson.  But now they've got the James Farrs of the world defending them, and it's a wholly different issue when they make that quick move and they slam into the dude and it's a charge.
Marquette's three post players - Henry Ellenson, Luke Fischer, and Matt Heldt - are responsible for 34 of MU's offensive fouls, which is essentially half of them.  I just pulled these stats from box scores, not from any kind of video review, so I don't know how many of these fouls are charges and how many are illegal screens.  But, from seeing half the offensive fouls come from the three tallest players on the team, I'm left with a possible conclusion: Given that Wojo was responsible for coaching the post players at Duke, he and his staff are struggling to coach the post players given the new emphasis on cleaning up physicality on both sides of post play this season.
Marquette's two worst players in terms of individual turnover rate are Traci Carter (30.5%) and Haanif Cheatham (27.8%).  For the most part, their problems are not offensive fouls.  11% and 13% respectively are not that significant for guys who are turning it over as much as those two dudes are relative to their time on the court.  Carter is also getting whistled for five fouls per 40 minutes, which is a ton, but only 9% of his fouls are of the offensive variety, which isn't that significant either.
Of the guys on the team who are playing more than 10% of MU's minutes, Luke Fischer has the second lowest turnover rate.  His 16.1% is only surpassed by Wally Ellenson's 10.7%.  But 30% of Fischer's turnovers are offensive fouls.  He's remarkably surehanded with the ball, probably even more so for a guy his size, and he'd be AMAZING if he wasn't getting hooked for an offensive foul every other game on average.
Did I miss anything interesting there?  What jumps out at you?
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just saying these numbers plus a legacy are going through the ellensons heads(note-plural, as in family)  i think HE knows HE can and wants to leave on a higher note and knows HE can do better.  just saying this is all playing a part.  we are talking about a close knit, proud, midwestern family here.  that's why we haven't heard anything yet.  everyone is talking number$.  i'm sure they have crunched these long ago.  now it comes down to a "life decision"  brass tacks baby.  something HE is and they are ALL IN on.  no looking back, no regrets.  how does HE want to be seen looking back??  biggest decision of HE's life tic tic tic tic

[LAMUfan]

Offensive fouls are killing this team's offensive efficiency.  Straight up murdering it in its sleep, suffocating possessions before they have a chance to live to their best possible potential: a made field goal.

I love this

[Benny B]

H is right; he said Hedge Fund, not any investment fund, mutual fund, ETF etc.  Hedge Fund (or most any private equity type fund) is a different ball game.

Perhaps a straight-up, 2% asset management fee/20% pref may be the standard for the funds which the typical investor has access to, but what the industry would term as a typical PE fund has minimum requirements that very few investors meet.  The fee structure is drastically different between a PE fund where the average investor can plop down $25,000 vs. a fund where $1,000,000 is the price of admission.

Believe what you want; however, 'H' is unequivocally wrong that 2/20 is any sort of standard for "typically crappy, underperforming" funds, and I'll bet my carried interest on it.

BTW - If you're investing seven figures into an underperforming fund that's taking 2/20, send a PM to JayBee for some hot stock tips.  But please don't PM me unless you want to experience the uncontrollable urge to strangle your current investment manager.

/end hijack*

* This should be teal, but I'm at least seasoned enough to know that Scoop is an airplane full of infidels and most Scoopers can't wait to meet their 40 virgins.

[Tugg Speedman]

Perhaps a straight-up, 2% asset management fee/20% pref may be the standard for the funds which the typical investor has access to, but what the industry would term as a typical PE fund has minimum requirements that very few investors meet.  The fee structure is drastically different between a PE fund where the average investor can plop down $25,000 vs. a fund where $1,000,000 is the price of admission.

Believe what you want; however, 'H' is unequivocally wrong that 2/20 is any sort of standard for "typically crappy, underperforming" funds, and I'll bet my carried interest on it.

BTW - If you're investing seven figures into an underperforming fund that's taking 2/20, send a PM to JayBee for some hot stock tips.  But please don't PM me unless you want to experience the uncontrollable urge to strangle your current investment manager.

/end hijack*

* This should be teal, but I'm at least seasoned enough to know that Scoop is an airplane full of infidels and most Scoopers can't wait to meet their 40 virgins.

Marc Lasry Bucks co-owner is a hedge fund manager, Third Avenue Capital.  He charges 2% and 20%.  Same with the other co-owner of the Bucks, Wes Eden, he is of Fortress Investments.  Stark capital in Milwaukee charges 2% and 20%.

Yes, hedge funds are for well-heeled investor ... Henry will qualify as one the day he is drafted.  So the guy managing his money will make almost as much as his agent.

And yes they mostly suck, industry averages are not good.  Same as mutual funds, they suck too.  Active manager  (hedge or mutual) is undergoing an exastential crisis, their entire purpose is being questioned.  Index funds are taking over for them.

Done hijacking this thread, start another thread if you want to discuss further.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Marc Lasry Bucks co-owner is a hedge fund manager, Third Avenue Capital.  He charges 2% and 20%.  Same with the other co-owner of the Bucks, Wes Eden, he is of Fortress Investments.  Stark capital in Milwaukee charges 2% and 20%.

Yes, hedge funds are for well-heeled investor ... Henry will qualify as one the day he is drafted.  So the guy managing his money will make almost as much as his agent.

And yes they mostly suck, industry averages are not good.  Same as mutual funds, they suck too.  Active manager  (hedge or mutual) is undergoing an exastential crisis, their entire purpose is being questioned.  Index funds are taking over for them.

Done hijacking this thread, start another thread if you want to discuss further.

HOLD UP

Third Avenue =/= Avenue Capital

Third Avenue HY fund done 'sploded. Avenue Capital seems to be doin' A-okay

Marc Lasry runs Avenue Capital. Not Third Avenue.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The hell happened to this thread?

[JakeBarnes]

The hell happened to this thread?

If you want, I can derail it more about how my former company funded litigation against a ton of corrupt hedge funds.

Or we can just keep talking about what our Scoop spy sees from the Subway on Wells.

[Benny B]

If you want, I can derail it more about how my former company funded litigation against a ton of corrupt hedge funds.

Or we can just keep talking about what our Scoop spy sees from the Subway on Wells.

There's already another uncorrupted thread on the original topic.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51332.0

[Tugg Speedman]

HOLD UP

Third Avenue =/= Avenue Capital

Third Avenue HY fund done 'sploded. Avenue Capital seems to be doin' A-okay

Marc Lasry runs Avenue Capital. Not Third Avenue.

My bad third avenue is Marty Whitman

Yes their HY fund blew up

But so did avenue capital distressed fund, about the same time, which is why they get jumbled together.

Fun fact about Marc lasry, he was the inspiration for one of the characters in Rounders, he he bets poker to the point of an addiction. Sometimes millions of dollars per hand.

[Brewtown Andy]

Marquette.....................   30   42  -   72         FINAL SCORE 90-72
Xavier........................   46   44  -   90
2016 Big East Tournament - Quarterfinals

13 Ellenson, Henry..... f  4-9    1-3    5-6    0  3  3   4  14  0  1  2  0  28


my thoughts/hopes-this may have been(above) the biggest game to enter in to HE's decision making process. add this to 
20-13  Conf.
8-10  Home
12-7  Away
6-5  Neutral
2-1 
   plus a wisconsin guy wants to go out on a higher note and show that he can make the players around him better.  barring an injury or a "life event", his draft status will not change much, only his maturity and educational level. 

i point this out as, yes, i know HE is young, but check out the part where brewtown andy notes HE's struggling with players of similar size-at the college level.  now, multiply that by 100 for the NBA...hmmmmm.  i don't think the D-league is an option here, but there are a number of things that will be taken in to consideration here.  yes, HE's potential is the BIG VARIABLE

[a giant swath of stuff C&P'd from an article from early February]


just saying these numbers plus a legacy are going through the ellensons heads(note-plural, as in family)  i think HE knows HE can and wants to leave on a higher note and knows HE can do better.  just saying this is all playing a part.  we are talking about a close knit, proud, midwestern family here.  that's why we haven't heard anything yet.  everyone is talking number$.  i'm sure they have crunched these long ago.  now it comes down to a "life decision"  brass tacks baby.  something HE is and they are ALL IN on.  no looking back, no regrets.  how does HE want to be seen looking back??  biggest decision of HE's life tic tic tic tic

Hey.  I wrote all of that stuff that I edited out of your post.  I wasn't noting Henry's struggling with guys his size, I was asking if it's the case.  I don't have access to video of every single one of Henry's offensive fouls this season, so I can't tell you if he actually is struggling.  Since Heldt has an offensive foul problem and is much more of a traditional post, his O-fouls are much more likely to be the kind that I described.

It's possible that very few of Henry's offensive fouls are a result of struggling with size.  Illegal screens would be noted as offensive fouls in the play-by-play, and I can think of more than one offensive foul on Henry this season that was a result of him either A) bullrushing someone over or B) a stiff arm clear out.

I also don't think that any of that has anything to do with whether or not Henry should enter the draft.  NBA scouts and GMs who are much smarter than me when it comes to basketball are telling Draft Express that he's a top 10 pick, so they're not really worried about him measuring up against NBA players.

[Brewtown Andy]

Offensive fouls are killing this team's offensive efficiency.  Straight up murdering it in its sleep, suffocating possessions before they have a chance to live to their best possible potential: a made field goal.

I love this

Thanks!

[Jay Bee]

Offensive fouls are killing this team's offensive efficiency.  Straight up murdering it in its sleep, suffocating possessions before they have a chance to live to their best possible potential: a made field goal.

lol, what? Absolutely bizarre claim.

[rocket surgeon]

Hey.  I wrote all of that stuff that I edited out of your post.  I wasn't noting Henry's struggling with guys his size, I was asking if it's the case.  I don't have access to video of every single one of Henry's offensive fouls this season, so I can't tell you if he actually is struggling.  Since Heldt has an offensive foul problem and is much more of a traditional post, his O-fouls are much more likely to be the kind that I described.

It's possible that very few of Henry's offensive fouls are a result of struggling with size.  Illegal screens would be noted as offensive fouls in the play-by-play, and I can think of more than one offensive foul on Henry this season that was a result of him either A) bullrushing someone over or B) a stiff arm clear out.

I also don't think that any of that has anything to do with whether or not Henry should enter the draft.  NBA scouts and GMs who are much smarter than me when it comes to basketball are telling Draft Express that he's a top 10 pick, so they're not really worried about him measuring up against NBA players.

The whole point of my post was more along the lines that HE isn't exactly going out on a high note.  All the other stuff is ancillary.  I'm trying to approach this whole mystery by guessing what could go thru the ellensons minds as they are debating the inevitable.  I'm sure they've beat up the money scenario.  The next biggest thing to focus on is making a decision that will not be regretted. Making sure every possible scenario is reviewed. For example, Am I going to kick myself for not living one more year as a college kid and making my team and those around me better players.  Footwork.  Better 3 point shot(remember the NBAs is roughly 2 feet further, etc etc

[Brewtown Andy]

lol, what? Absolutely bizarre claim.

At the time that I wrote that, slightly less than 20% of the team's very high number of turnovers were a result of offensive fouls.

http://www.anonymouseagle.com/2016/2/10/10957204/marquette-basketball-offensive-fouls-turnovers-ellenson-fischer-carter-cheatham-heldt

[DienerTime34]

Henry is back.  Rarely post, but I have a very very good source.

You should get a new very very good source. And go back to posting rarely.

[Shark]

You should get a new very very good source. And go back to posting rarely.

Oh lay off the guy. Things change. Kids change their mind. It is what it is.

[DienerTime34]

Oh lay off the guy. Things change. Kids change their mind. It is what it is.

Respect the process, and such?

[wadesworld]

Oh lay off the guy. Things change. Kids change their mind. It is what it is.

The point is nothing "changed."

[Shark]

I'm just saying
1. It really doesn't matter if his prediction or "source" was right or wrong. His Scoop ego took a hit, big deal.
2. There's no reason for people to jump down each other's throats on here so often. We are, mostly, all here for the same reasons.

[wadesworld]

I'm just saying
1. It really doesn't matter if his prediction or "source" was right or wrong. His Scoop ego took a hit, big deal.
2. There's no reason for people to jump down each other's throats on here so often. We are, mostly, all here for the same reasons.

Gotcha.  Don't disagree with this.

[rocket surgeon]

    ". There's no reason for people to jump down each other's throats on here so often..."

                                  yeah-that's for the politics board-heyyyn'a?   

[rocket surgeon]

  belling just announced HE hired an agent and he's.......gone

[rocket surgeon]

  belling just announced HE hired an agent and he's.......gone

sorry, i must be in a different time zone-good luck HE. 

[bobnoxious]

Belling was for once highly complinentary and touched on the Howard committ as being a really big deal