Question on Henry's announcement

[muguru]

Henry doesn't have to be physically in class to continue with school.  I feel confident that even if Henry enters the draft, he will find a way to retain his academic eligibility and therefore not harm MU's APR score.

Exactly my point.

[Galway Eagle]

Was told no Henry in class today.

nm

[Tugg Speedman]

That is before tax. More than 40% will go for taxes. There will not be much left to save, if player cannot control his spending.

Yes plus 20% to his agent.  After tax/agent that is about $7.5 to $8 million

Remember, this is the #1 pick, halve it for the 10th pick.

If you can average a 5% rate of return, $13 million gets you $650,000 per year. 

Lifetime annuities are offering about 3%, not 5%.   But these start at age 40, not 22.  The rate is probably lower at 22 (more risk for the annuity writer) but let's use 3%

So if Henry is the 10th pick, completely busts out of basketball and never gets a second contract, he can get an annuity giving him about $100k, a year.  Now this assumes no stupid spending, no cars, girls, clothes, posse, bad investments, giant fish tanks that look like boom boxes (calling you out Jimmy!) ... Basically all the stuff Pakuni said he will blow his Money on above (Pakuni, I'm agreeing with you).  In other words he needs to enter the NBA as a 19 year old from Rice Lake living in his parents house on a 19 year old Rice lake budget.  Anyone believe this will happen?

So if Henry is concerned he will be a bust, I would argue a four year free MU degree would be worth more than a rookie contract, stay in school.

My point is this is NOT a financial decision.  The first contract is not that important.  It is a lifestyle decision.

So the question is when do you want to start the clock to getting to your second or third contract?  Now (this year) or do you want to play another year with your brother at the college ranks.  Whatever is important to you.

[Shark]

Yes plus 20% to his agent.  After tax/agent that is about $7.5 to $8 million

Remember, this is the #1 pick, halve it for the 10th pick.

Lifetime annuities are offering about 3%, not 5%.   But these start at age 40, not 22.  The rate is probably lower at 22 (more risk for the annuity writer) but let's use 3%

So if Henry is the 10th pick, completely busts out of basketball and never gets a second contract, he can get an annuity giving him about $100k, a year.  Now this assumes no stupid spending, no cars, girls, clothes, posse, bad investments, giant fish tanks that look like boom boxes (calling you out Jimmy!) ... Basically all the stuff Pakuni said he will blow his Money on above (Pakuni, I'm agreeing with you).  In other words he needs to enter the NBA as a 19 year old from Rice Lake living in his parents house on a 19 year old Rice lake budget.  Anyone believe this will happen?

So if Henry is concerned he will be a bust, I would argue a four year free MU degree would be worth more than a rookie contract, stay in school.

My point is this is NOT a financial decision.  The first contract is not that important.  It is a lifestyle decision.

So the question is when do you want to start the clock to getting to your second or third contract?  Now (this year) or do you want to play another year with your brother at the college ranks.  Whatever is important to you.

I personally know a guy who works for a pretty big time sports agency. 20% is insane. It's closer to 4-6%

[Tugg Speedman]

I personally know a guy who works for a pretty big time sports agency. 20% is insane. It's closer to 4-6%

20%, as I understand it, is a full service firm, contracts, money, investments, sponsorships, making hookers and arrest records disappear, etc.

4% to 6% sound like basic services.

Heck your typically crappy underperforming hedge fund takes 2% fee and 20% of the profits.

[hepennypacker5000]

Yes plus 20% to his agent.  After tax that is about $7.5 to $8 million

Remember, this is the #1 pick, halve it for the 10th pick.

Lifetime annuities are offering about 3%, not 5%.   But these start at age 40, not 22.  The rate is probably lower at 22 (more risk for the annuity writer) but let's use 3%

So if Henry is the 10th pick, completely busts out of basketball and never gets a second contract, he can get an annuity giving him about $100k, a year.  Now this assumes no stupid spending, no cars, girls, clothes, posse, bad investments, giant fish tanks that look like boom boxes (calling you out Jimmy!) ... Basically all the stuff Pakuni said he will blow his Money on above (Pakuni, I'm agreeing with you).  In other words he needs to enter the NBA as a 19 year old from Rice Lake living in his parents house on a 19 year old Rice lake budget.  Anyone believe this will happen?

So if Henry is concerned he will be a bust, I would argue a four year free MU degree would be worth more than a rookie contract, stay in school.

My point is this is NOT a financial decision.  The first contract is not that important.  It is a lifestyle decision.

So the question is when do you want to start the clock to getting to your second or third contract?  Now (this year) or do you want to play another year with your brother at the college ranks.  Whatever is important to you.

This is purely a finance decision, and your attempt at separating lifestyle vs fiances is absurd, especially considering the source. So he stays for 4 years and then what? Gets a degree he won't use (unless he's washed up, in which case he should have left as a freshman) and a slightly larger rookie paycheck, which doesn't consider potential losses from an injury? What's equally absurd is your 20% agent cut claim. If Ellenson's agent were to take a 20% cut he would be raked harder than nearly any player in recent history. The average agent cut is less than 10%.

If Henry's concerned he'll be a bust now, he should be considerably more concerned he'll be a bust at the end of his senior year, which at that point he would get nothing at all. If his rookie contract doesn't work out, he's terrible, and Europe won't pay him, he'd still have enough money to come back to MU and finish his degree.

[MU82]

Today's USA Today has Henry going 9th. Today.

[Tugg Speedman]

This is purely a finance decision, and your attempt at separating lifestyle vs fiances is absurd, especially considering the source. So he stays for 4 years and then what? Gets a degree he won't use (unless he's washed up, in which case he should have left as a freshman) and a slightly larger rookie paycheck, which doesn't consider potential losses from an injury? What's equally absurd is your 20% agent cut claim. If Ellenson's agent were to take a 20% cut he would be raked harder than nearly any player in recent history. The average agent cut is less than 10%.

If Henry's concerned he'll be a bust now, he should be considerably more concerned he'll be a bust at the end of his senior year, which at that point he would get nothing at all. If his rookie contract doesn't work out, he's terrible, and Europe won't pay him, he'd still have enough money to come back to MU and finish his degree.

Fine, the agent cut is 5%, so after tax is 4 to 4.5 or 115k/year for life.


If Henry is being driven by the decision of the money won't be there in a year because he might get hurt, than he is not gonna take a charge, he's not to be asked to put back into our second overtime game when his body doesn't feel right, yes not going to play with injury.  In other words, he's going to play not to lose and will be a bust.

My point is Henry WILL make $200 million in his career whether he starts it this year next year or the year after.    It simply doesn't matter what year he comes out. He'll get paid, and the rookie contract is not that important because it is the second and third contract that will make him the real money.  So it becomes a lifestyle decision. Does he want to play basketball with his brother in college one more year, or is he ready to go to the show now?

[naginiF]

20%, as I understand it, is a full service firm, contracts, money, investments, sponsorships, making hookers and arrest records disappear, etc.

4% to 6% sound like basic services.

Heck your typically crappy underperforming hedge fund takes 2% fee and 20% of the profits.

What?  I hope that's not your personal funds.  If so, you need to meet different fund managers.

[Tugg Speedman]

What?  I hope that's not your personal funds.  If so, you need to meet different fund managers.

That is their standard fee

[naginiF]

our agreement isn't that cut and dry but (without crunching numbers) we're about 2.5-3% fee and 10-12.5% profit.  it may be different for institutional investors (i have no idea).

this is also the most derailed a thread could be ---- totally my fault.

[hepennypacker5000]

Fine, the agent cut is 5%, so after tax is 4 to 4.5 or 115k/year for life.


If Henry is being driven by the decision of the money won't be there in a year because he might get hurt, than he is not gonna take a charge, he's not to be asked to put back into our second overtime game when his body doesn't feel right, yes not going to play with injury.  In other words, he's going to play not to lose and will be a bust.

My point is Henry WILL make $200 million in his career whether he starts it this year next year or the year after.    It simply doesn't matter what year he comes out. He'll get paid, and the rookie contract is not that important because it is the second and third contract that will make him the real money.  So it becomes a lifestyle decision. Does he want to play basketball with his brother in college one more year, or is he ready to go to the show now?

Guys at this level are going to play hard regardless of what league they're in, that has nothing to do with it. I'm not questioning his heart. Like I said, the idea that he will make it to his senior season without a career ending or draft stock hurting injury simply isn't true. Injurys happen and they have nothing to do with heart, they just happen. Yes the second and third contract are more important if he wants to make $200 million, but talking about the second and third contract is useless if he risks injury in a no-money league just to get his first.

Look as an MU fan I want Henry to stay, but seeing posts in this thread where he looks top 15, I won't begrudge him for making a business decision.

[forgetful]

Fine, the agent cut is 5%, so after tax is 4 to 4.5 or 115k/year for life.


If Henry is being driven by the decision of the money won't be there in a year because he might get hurt, than he is not gonna take a charge, he's not to be asked to put back into our second overtime game when his body doesn't feel right, yes not going to play with injury.  In other words, he's going to play not to lose and will be a bust.

My point is Henry WILL make $200 million in his career whether he starts it this year next year or the year after.    It simply doesn't matter what year he comes out. He'll get paid, and the rookie contract is not that important because it is the second and third contract that will make him the real money.  So it becomes a lifestyle decision. Does he want to play basketball with his brother in college one more year, or is he ready to go to the show now?

The NBA allows a maximum of 3% commission on the players salary.  They can place different commissions on endorsements etc (typically in the range of 4-10%), but the max is 3% on salary.  Same for the NFL.

[Benny B]

That is their standard fee

No it's not.  You're either getting fleeced or you don't have much to invest if you're finding that to be typical.

You realize it's because of guys like you why Ponzi's were invented.

[Jay Bee]

Heisenberg has four dollars to his name.. the percentages don't mean much, a''ina??

[Tugg Speedman]

No it's not.  You're either getting fleeced or you don't have much to invest if you're finding that to be typical.

You realize it's because of guys like you why Ponzi's were invented.

Completely wrong ... Start a new thread if you want to be corrected here, not hijacking this thread to educate you.

[onepost]

Anything else you can add or is this third hand?

Third hand.  Same friend who told me he was looking at suits and trucks in mid-January ("looks like we officially know what Northern Sconnies do with substantial amounts of money" was the joke at the time) during class told me that he wasn't in class today.  Neither of us is treating it like a death sentence, but it certainly stands out.

I think the longer he's taking the better our odds, especially with literally any college player with pro aspirations seemingly declaring within the past week.  My assumption there was that when he finally does state something it would be more definitive than any of these other guys ("testing the waters" and not hiring an agent).  My guess is when he comes out and states his intentions it will either be "I'm coming back for another year" (obviously definitive) or "I am declaring for the draft and hiring an agent".  While yeah you assume the worst hearing he wasn't in class none of us are totally resigned to him leaving quite yet.

[bilsu]

Until he says he is coming back it is 100% chance he is going. Not really true statistics, but that is how I see it. Basically he has not announced that he is staying, so he is gone.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

So, he hasn't been spotted walking around campus with his backpack on post spring break?

[muguru]

Until he says he is coming back it is 100% chance he is going. Not really true statistics, but that is how I see it. Basically he has not announced that he is staying, so he is gone.

That is totally backwards...if you're staying, you wouldn't have to announce anything, it's just business as usual.

[LloydsLegs]

Completely wrong ... Start a new thread if you want to be corrected here, not hijacking this thread to educate you.

H is right; he said Hedge Fund, not any investment fund, mutual fund, ETF etc.  Hedge Fund (or most any private equity type fund) is a different ball game.

[KampusFoods]

That is totally backwards...if you're staying, you wouldn't have to announce anything, it's just business as usual.

Henry needs to announce something, one way or another, or this place is gonna implode

[Herman Cain]

Hey New York Warrrior!

NBA Draft Net is literally the WORST

DraftExpress is the best.  Jonathon Giviney (top editor) is a regular on Woj's site + many others.  And years ago Chicos bragged on him. 

STOP looking at NBA draft Net.  It sucks. 

It would be like a few years ago me saying Cam Newton sucked and you saying he was Top 5.

The more you quote NBA draft Net the worst you sound.

Henry was top 10 his senior year of HS, and he's stayed there.

WAKE UP TO REALITY!!!!!

I look at that particular Mock Draft as it consistently has had Henry lower although he has trended up. Earlier in the year he was in the 22-24 range and he has slowly worked way up to 15-16 range. Henry is now 9th on the Draft Express list so he has been trending slightly down on that. Both Mock sites have detailed scouting reports on Henry that are remarkably very similar. In a nutshell,Praise his offense and question his defense.

My view is Henry is gone if he and the family are confident he is a high enough first round pick. i put in the salary chart to show that Middle of the first round money is not a no brainer.



By the way I am not a Cam Newton fan. He has is not a very accurate passer ( in addition to being a dick). Have seen him work out many times.I was at the Super Bowl this year and a more accurate quarterback would have completed many more of the critical passes. Yes he is tall and athletic but he has other limitations .  Ron Jaworski is a friend of mine and I look at his quarterback rankings pretty closely and he had Cam 18th last year going into the season.  Obviously in the right circumstance he was able to get Carolina into the championship game so that is the offset as well.

[The Lens]

Henry will pay his agent a max of 3%.

For endorsements he will pay about 20% but obviously that is bonus money. 

I would guess between shoes / basketball cards & stickers as a top 10 pick he could make about $750,000 to $1,000,000 off the court in his rookie year. 

The memorabilia won't keep up (rookies have highest values) but the shoe deal should grow as he gets better. 

And all of that is before getting a real endorsement like being used by Kia, T Mobile, State Farm, etc, etc.

[kmwtrucks]

My guess is he is deciding between putting his name with an agent or without and that is why there has been no announcement.  If it looks like he is going to be 12-16 (the bottom of his projections) maybe he puts in without a agent to gather more info.  I think if he looks to fall to 15 he might stay and get stronger and round out a few rough edges in his game.  put on more strength, play in the NCAA once with his brother and if he goes #5-#8 he makes up al the money he lost in the 1st 3 years.   there is a trend of older NCAA players going higher.  NBA teams seem to look at this as the safer route.  Henry is rated right around Heldt and Dunn.  If I was drafting who would you take of those 3 assuming you needed everything?  And as Fresh go Henry is one of the safer one and dones at around #6-#10.