MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Herman Cain on November 16, 2021, 09:02:22 AM
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Big East Poll Rankings as of November 15:
AP
5. Nova
23. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes: X, The Hall, The Johnnies
Coaches
Will update when they update their poll for games played.
NET Rankings
Will post when they start coming out
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Big East Poll Rankings as of November 22
AP
7. Nova
21. The Hall
23 .U Conn
25. X
Others Receiving Votes
MU
Coaches
7.Nova
20. The Hall
21. U Conn
Others receiving votes
X, MU
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Big East Poll Rankings as of November 22
AP
7. Nova
21. The Hall
23 .U Conn
25. X
Others Receiving Votes
MU
Coaches
7.Nova
20. The Hall
21. U Conn
Others receiving votes
X, MU
Marquette #32 in writers poll and # 36 Coaches Poll. Marquette NET 93
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Marquette #32 in writers poll and # 36 Coaches Poll. Marquette NET 93
That NET is from last year. Will be posting NET rankings once they are available for this season.
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That NET is from last year. Will be posting NET rankings once they are available for this season.
Thank You.
Understand they are not using RPI anymore and it is very early but
But CBS has Marquette’s RPI dropping from
#9 to #22 after the Saint Bonaventure loss.
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Seton Hall just lost to OSU, could hurt them next monday. Also hope we can win by 20+ against Northern Illinois because just looking at the New Hampshire and SIUE scores we don't look very good.
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Seton Hall just lost to OSU, could hurt them next monday. Also hope we can win by 20+ against Northern Illinois because just looking at the New Hampshire and SIUE scores we don't look very good.
I thought I read that the NET removed scoring margin from their algorithm.
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Seton Hall just lost to OSU, could hurt them next monday. Also hope we can win by 20+ against Northern Illinois because just looking at the New Hampshire and SIUE scores we don't look very good.
I think Shaka will play EE and Stevie for extended periods of time before he entertains the idea of winning margins.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of November 29,2021
AP
6. Nova
17. U-Conn
25. The Hall
Others Receiving Votes
MU, X
Coaches
6.Nova
17.U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, MU, X, Cooley & Company
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Understand they are not using RPI anymore and it is very early but
But CBS has Marquette’s RPI dropping from
#9 to #22 after the Saint Bonaventure loss.
Marquette #31 in Coaches Poll #34 Writers Poll
Marquette CBS RPI #17
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Marquette #31 in Coaches Poll #34 Writers Poll
Marquette CBS RPI #17
RPI? Ha! We haven’t won by enough and have lost by too much. I’m thinking we should be about 150-200 range in the statistical rating system I’m putting together. Wins and losses no matta, hey? Just like free throws.
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RPI? Ha! We haven’t won by enough and have lost by too much. I’m thinking we should be about 150-200 range in the statistical rating system I’m putting together. Wins and losses no matta, hey? Just like free throws.
53 in the DR, hey?
https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-ratings
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53 in the DR, hey?
https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-ratings
DB is your site more reflective of the NET than Kenpom?
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RPI? Ha! We haven’t won by enough and have lost by too much. I’m thinking we should be about 150-200 range in the statistical rating system I’m putting together. Wins and losses no matta, hey? Just like free throws.
Agree RPI does not matter much anymore but after Marquette WI MU’s RPI is 19 and before Marquette UW MU was a 9 Seed in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.
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Agree RPI does not matter much anymore but after Marquette WI MU’s RPI is 19 and before Marquette UW MU was a 9 Seed in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.
FIFY
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FIFY
Lol thank you haha but being we have no net yet. There is a reason multiple sources including CBS publicize it yet. Wish the net would come out soon. And Lunardi has been doing Bracketology for long time. True do not like ESPN as much these days but thought some might like some of it yet.
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Lol thank you haha but being we have no net yet. There is a reason multiple sources including CBS publicize it yet. Wish the net would come out soon. And Lunardi has been doing Bracketology for long time. True do not like ESPN as much these days but thought some might like some of it yet.
Better to use kenpom or Torvik filtered for current season only than RPI. The computer metrics more closely approximate NET. RPI is completely useless when it comes to the sport or prognostication. And while Lunardi was one of the first, he's far from the best. I'd look at Dave Omman, Kevin Pulsipher, or Delphi Bracketology if you want something that will look like that the Selection Committee will come up with.
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Better to use kenpom or Torvik filtered for current season only than RPI. The computer metrics more closely approximate NET. RPI is completely useless when it comes to the sport or prognostication. And while Lunardi was one of the first, he's far from the best. I'd look at Dave Omman, Kevin Pulsipher, or Delphi Bracketology if you want something that will look like that the Selection Committee will come up with.
Thanks just subscribed to kenpom.
Kenpom has Marquette at #78 Overall and #8 in the Big East currently.
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Thanks just subscribed to kenpom.
Kenpom has Marquette at #78 Overall and #8 in the Big East currently.
#78 in the just released NET rankings as well. The NCAA must have finally subscribed to KenPom as well.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 5, 2021
5 Villanova
13 UConn
21 Seton Hall
30 Xavier
37 Providence
78 Marquette
89 Creighton
94 DePaul
108 St. John's
197 Butler
247 Georgetown
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It’s very early, but the NET is not in MU’s favor initially. Both Illinois and UCLA are Q2 games currently. Hoping they move up to Q1 by season’s end.
Georgetown and DePaul are essentially buy level games. Need all of those.
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Haven't done a bracket yet, but my rough expectation for Marquette now is...
17-18 wins: NIT
19 wins: NCAA bubble, NIT or Dayton
20 wins: NCAA bubble, likely avoid Dayton
21+ wins: Comfortably in
On a straight game-by-game predictive metric, we're expected to win 14 games. Margin matters, but I'd imagine every win above that improves our NET by about 4.
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Haven't done a bracket yet, but my rough expectation for Marquette now is...
17-18 wins: NIT
19 wins: NCAA bubble, NIT or Dayton
20 wins: NCAA bubble, likely avoid Dayton
21+ wins: Comfortably in
On a straight game-by-game predictive metric, we're expected to win 14 games. Margin matters, but I'd imagine every win above that improves our NET by about 4.
I think if we can win 1 of @K State and UCLA, and go 10-10 in BE, Marquette will be in the tournament. MAJOR ifs, but that is theoretically 18 wins with a first round BET exit, which you have as NIT.
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Haven't done a bracket yet, but my rough expectation for Marquette now is...
17-18 wins: NIT
19 wins: NCAA bubble, NIT or Dayton
20 wins: NCAA bubble, likely avoid Dayton
21+ wins: Comfortably in
On a straight game-by-game predictive metric, we're expected to win 14 games. Margin matters, but I'd imagine every win above that improves our NET by about 4.
If this were a poll, my preference would be the 21+ wins thing!
Seriously, thanks for this handy-dandy guide. I'm really curious to see how we finish up the non-con part of our season this week.
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Big East Poll Rankings December 6,2021
AP
6. Nova
15.U-Conn
23. The Hall
Others receiving votes :
X
Coaches
6. Nova
18. U-Conn
25. The Hall
Others Receiving Votes
X, Cooley & Company
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I think if we can win 1 of @K State and UCLA, and go 10-10 in BE, Marquette will be in the tournament. MAJOR ifs, but that is theoretically 18 wins with a first round BET exit, which you have as NIT.
I really don't think we'll have the metrics without at least 19 wins. It would likely leave us with a NET in the 60s. So far, only two sub-60 NET teams have earned at-large bids. #63 Arizona State with 22 wins and #73 St John's with 21 wins, both in 2019. They also both had multiple wins over teams on the 5 or better seed lines. Now maybe if you include wins over Nova and UConn in those 10, but while our NET will improve by exceeding our projected win total, I don't think 18 will be enough.
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Also, Georgetown and Butler look horrible. Not just in the NET, but their actual results don't look like high major teams. So that's 4 games you better win but don't expect a resume boost from them. Going 6-10 against the non-completely garbage teams probably won't be enough.
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Also, Georgetown and Butler look horrible. Not just in the NET, but their actual results don't look like high major teams. So that's 4 games you better win but don't expect a resume boost from them. Going 6-10 against the non-completely garbage teams probably won't be enough.
G-Town is 3-2 in Quad 4 wins and losses.
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G-Town is 3-2 in Quad 4 wins and losses.
Ewing must be pretty abrasive if all those kids keep transferring out. Something is really wrong at Georgetown.
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Marquette’s Kenpom rating moved from 78 to 77
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Win enough games and beat good teams and it works itself out. Lose too many games and it works itself out.
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Ewing must be pretty abrasive if all those kids keep transferring out. Something is really wrong at Georgetown.
I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.
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I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.
I believe Ewing can coach but roster construction is pretty damn important.
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I once thought that it would be great to have an alumnus as our coach but after seeing what happened at St. John's and what is happening at Georgetown (and possibly Butler as well) I am glad that we do not have an alumnus as coach. The divorce is especially messy unless the coach is the one to make the decision to leave without obvious prodding from the school.
To be fair I think hiring your superstar alumnus is different than an alum who's proven themselves. Wardle has proven to be at least fairly capable (not at a huge level or deserving of a huge level) so that'd be different than us hiring Wade like SJU and GTown did. Butler f'd up, I mean how did they think hiring a guy who's only year was 11-24 in the horizon was going to work out?
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Marquette’s Kenpom rating moved from 78 to 77
You mean from 78 to now 71. Illinois with a good win against Iowa moved them from 48 to 30 and they dragged us up a bit with them. I'd expect them to continue to do that a bit as the season rolls on.
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You mean from 78 to now 71. Illinois with a good win against Iowa moved them from 48 to 30 and they dragged us up a bit with them. I'd expect them to continue to do that a bit as the season rolls on.
Kenpom 77. You talking NET?
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Kenpom 77. You talking NET?
Ohhhh, yes I was. Sorry, was skimming and since it was a thread about NET that's where my mind went. In conclusion, yes moved up to 71 in NET ranking.
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To be fair I think hiring your superstar alumnus is different than an alum who's proven themselves. Wardle has proven to be at least fairly capable (not at a huge level or deserving of a huge level) so that'd be different than us hiring Wade like SJU and GTown did. Butler f'd up, I mean how did they think hiring a guy who's only year was 11-24 in the horizon was going to work out?
Fair point regarding a super star like Wade. Ewing had experience in the NBA but not as a college HC. Agreee on Jordan. Yet even an alumnus who has proven himself at another school may or may not be the ideal coach and if it does not work out, a divorce may be messy. We had Majerus who, to put it mildly, was not a super star at Marquette and Syracuse has had Cryin' Jim for decades, so I'm not saying it cannot work out. I just think it is probably best to hire non alumni as coaches.
Majerus was in a polysci class I took at MU. Even as an undergrad, he had that same patented goofy look on his face you may have seen during games.
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No star alum as MU coach? There goes Ners' hopes and dreams!
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You've got experience, 82. You could be next. You may be too old, though. ;D
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You've got experience, 82. You could be next. You may be too old, though. ;D
Hey ... I'm nearly 2 years younger than Calipari!
But the Shaka-cons would hate my defense, as it is similar to his ... in set-up, anyway. Not very many 6-5, long-armed middle-school kids.
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I really don't think we'll have the metrics without at least 19 wins. It would likely leave us with a NET in the 60s. So far, only two sub-60 NET teams have earned at-large bids. #63 Arizona State with 22 wins and #73 St John's with 21 wins, both in 2019. They also both had multiple wins over teams on the 5 or better seed lines. Now maybe if you include wins over Nova and UConn in those 10, but while our NET will improve by exceeding our projected win total, I don't think 18 will be enough.
Fair enough. I think it would be tough to leave a team out with a .500 BE record, no bad non-con losses, and non-con wins over Illinois, West Virginia, Ole Miss and K State/UCLA. But I'd certainly feel better at 11-9, or winning a couple games in NYC.
That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.
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Fair enough. I think it would be tough to leave a team out with a .500 BE record, no bad non-con losses, and non-con wins over Illinois, West Virginia, Ole Miss and K State/UCLA. But I'd certainly feel better at 11-9, or winning a couple games in NYC.
That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.
I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy. But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.
That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.
I don’t think that will happen. Too much talent on this team even though it is young. And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst. Let’s hope so anyway.
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I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy. But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.
That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.
I don’t think that will happen. Too much talent on this team even though it is young. And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst. Let’s hope so anyway.
But where is the talent, really? Morsell was an Honorable Mention Big Ten player twice. Has anybody else on our roster made any kind of All Conference team in their careers? Are the kids who are in their first season of college basketball 5 stars who will make it this year?
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But where is the talent, really? Morsell was an Honorable Mention Big Ten player twice. Has anybody else on our roster made any kind of All Conference team in their careers? Are the kids who are in their first season of college basketball 5 stars who will make it this year?
I’m not talking win the conference talent. I’m talking enough talent to go .500 or very close to it. Five wins (for example) in conference would be concerning with GT and Butler as bottom feeders in addition to winnable games against the middle tier teams. We didn’t beat WV and Ole Miss by accident. There is enough talent that good coaching should get us near .500.
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Hey ... I'm nearly 2 years younger than Calipari!
But the Shaka-cons would hate my defense, as it is similar to his ... in set-up, anyway. Not very many 6-5, long-armed middle-school kids.
I feel for you.
You should patent Shaka-con.
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I hope 10-10 is not a fantasy. But if we do collapse it will be similar to the DePaul season a couple years ago when they had a great nonconference season and then imploded in conference.
That would leave a bad taste in all our mouths and I believe lead to transfers out of the program and a possible Georgetown death spiral.
I don’t think that will happen. Too much talent on this team even though it is young. And if Shaka is as competent a coach as we all hope he can extract enough wins out of this team to get us to 10-10 or 9-11 at worst. Let’s hope so anyway.
I mean, there is talent on this team for sure. But its so young. Consistency is clearly a problem, and is shot making. We've been dismantled by the 2 best teams we've played, and we beat Illinois at home without their best player. All in all, I've been pleasantly surprised by this team. I thought we'd be 5-4 right now, so I am happy that a tournament conversation is even on the table at this point. But I think this team is more likely to go 0-5 in its next 5 than 3-2. So I guess let's see where we stand on December 30th.
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Win enough games and beat good teams and it works itself out. Lose too many games and it works itself out.
Yes and no. This was definitely the case when RPI was the main metric, but now that they are using an efficiency based metric, how much you win or lose by is just about as important. Colorado State didn't miss the tournament last year because they didn't beat enough good teams. They had a higher winning percentage, better Q1+2 record, and no bad losses compared to fellow MWC league mate Utah State.
But USU was ranked #47 in the NET and CSU was #63. If it was just about winning enough games and beating good teams, CSU's RPI of #41 would've got them in ahead of #56 USU, but now it's about minimizing loss margins and winning in blowout fashion that matters more.
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That said, 10-10 is going to be a very tall ask, so this hypothetical is probably more fantasy than anything else.
I'm not sure about that. Georgetown and Butler so far are gross levels of bad. Creighton and DePaul might be a little better, but I think 6 wins from those 8 games should be the minimum expectation. I think 4-8 in the rest of the games, with 6 at home, is certainly a realistic, if not modest, hope.
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If the ‘Quette loses a game to Georgetown or Butler, they should revoke everyone’s scholarships
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Yes and no. This was definitely the case when RPI was the main metric, but now that they are using an efficiency based metric, how much you win or lose by is just about as important. Colorado State didn't miss the tournament last year because they didn't beat enough good teams. They had a higher winning percentage, better Q1+2 record, and no bad losses compared to fellow MWC league mate Utah State.
But USU was ranked #47 in the NET and CSU was #63. If it was just about winning enough games and beating good teams, CSU's RPI of #41 would've got them in ahead of #56 USU, but now it's about minimizing loss margins and winning in blowout fashion that matters more.
Solid info. This seems like an unfortunate consequence of metrics system.
I could look it up but you already know the answer- did SDSU win both regular season and conference tourneys? Why were CSUs metrics so poor in comparison to USU? If I recall they started off really well so I assume they played a really weak OOC schedule and their bye games were against very weak teams so this was the difference?
Since you are obviously a metrics guy I think this is a good question for you-
Do you look at this case and see a flaw in the system? Would you have preferred that someone in that room had stepped up and caught it and CSU was put in before USU or you think the committee got it right and have no problem with it?
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Yes and no. This was definitely the case when RPI was the main metric, but now that they are using an efficiency based metric, how much you win or lose by is just about as important. Colorado State didn't miss the tournament last year because they didn't beat enough good teams. They had a higher winning percentage, better Q1+2 record, and no bad losses compared to fellow MWC league mate Utah State.
But USU was ranked #47 in the NET and CSU was #63. If it was just about winning enough games and beating good teams, CSU's RPI of #41 would've got them in ahead of #56 USU, but now it's about minimizing loss margins and winning in blowout fashion that matters more.
I don't like that a coach who's winning by 14 with 1:30 left needs to keep his foot on the gas so he can win by 21. I don't like that a coach who's losing by 15 has to keep his better players in a lost-cause game so it doesn't end up being a 20-point loss. It's a flaw in the system IMHO, and it could get players hurt.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 6, 2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
11 13 UConn
23 21 Seton Hall
31 30 Xavier
34 37 Providence
71 78 Marquette
90 89 Creighton
96 94 DePaul
106 108 St. John's
199 197 Butler
248 247 Georgetown
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Solid info. This seems like an unfortunate consequence of metrics system.
I could look it up but you already know the answer- did SDSU win both regular season and conference tourneys? Why were CSUs metrics so poor in comparison to USU? If I recall they started off really well so I assume they played a really weak OOC schedule and their bye games were against very weak teams so this was the difference?
Since you are obviously a metrics guy I think this is a good question for you-
Do you look at this case and see a flaw in the system? Would you have preferred that someone in that room had stepped up and caught it and CSU was put in before USU or you think the committee got it right and have no problem with it?
SDSU did win both. There were three main things that jumped out. Looking at comparable events that likely led to their kenpom difference (which is the closest analogue to NET), two things stood out.
Where I see real differences are the average margin of loss (9.8 for USU, 12.5 for CSU) and the average winning margin against their 6 worst opponents (33.3 for USU, 27.7 for CSU). That really jumps out because of those 6, 5 were common opponents, so it's a pretty clear direct comparison that shows blowing teams out by larger margins matters.
My problem with NET is that it is primarily based on efficiency margin differential. On the surface, that's fine, but look at what a couple blowouts can do to a team. Last year, Louisville was projected to lose at Wisconsin and at UNC, but because they lost at Wisconsin by 37 instead of 4 and at UNC by 45 instead of 1, they saw a combined kenpom hit of 29 rank spots between those two games. They lost games they were supposed to lose, but the margins likely cost them 20-30 rank spots and a NCAA bid. Margin should matter, but the problem with a season-long metric is that it views the difference between 1 and 11 points the same way it does 31 and 41 points. There should be a regressive model where the bigger the margin, the less it matters. 1 vs 11 is tangibly different, more so than say 20 vs 40, both commanding, blowout margins.
My second issue with NET is their "cap" of 10 points. They claim they have a maximum game margin difference of 10 points, but when the primary evaluation tool is an efficiency margin that works on margin differential, the 10 point cap is actually a bonus added on top of the existing efficiency margin.
I do think NET is better than RPI. I like advanced metrics and think they have improved the game. But I think there's still room for improvement.
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Butler moved from 199 to 121 in NET after their win at Oklahoma. What a MASSIVE result for the league.
Marquette moves up 4 spots to 67
Providence moves up to 31 after their solid win vs. a solid Vermont squad
Really good day for the Big East!
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Hopefully the Big East can get another 4 wins tonight. Looks like UConn-West Virginia and MU-KSU should be the toughest matchups. Xavier should handle Ball St, but maybe we can count on G'town taking care of business against UMBC.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
10 11 UConn
25 23 Seton Hall
31 34 Providence
33 31 Xavier
67 71 Marquette
83 96 DePaul
87 90 Creighton
113 106 St. John's
121 199 Butler
245 248 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
10 11 UConn
25 23 Seton Hall
31 34 Providence
33 31 Xavier
67 71 Marquette
83 96 DePaul
87 90 Creighton
113 106 St. John's
121 199 Butler
245 248 Georgetown
Good Stuff Thanks
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Marquette moves from 67 to 60 in the NET this morning.
Of note, Xavier moved to 20 from 33 & Georgetown moved to 205 from 245.
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Marquette moves from 67 to 60 in the NET this morning.
Of note, Xavier moved to 20 from 33 & Georgetown moved to 205 from 245.
I was going to say I found it weird that X is 8-1 and beat Ohio State who has two losses yet Ohio State is somehow ranked and X is only receiving votes. B10 bias?
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I was going to say I found it weird that X is 8-1 and beat Ohio State who has two losses yet Ohio State is somehow ranked and X is only receiving votes. B10 bias?
B10 bias, and OSU beat Duke - and all media has Duke bias. So yeah.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 8,2021
New Old
6 5 Villanova
14 10 UConn
20 33 Xavier
26 25 Seton Hall
35 31 Providence
60 67 Marquette
79 83 DePaul
84 87 Creighton
111 113 St. John's
118 121 Butler
205 245 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 8,2021
New Old
6 5 Villanova
14 10 UConn
20 33 Xavier
26 25 Seton Hall
35 31 Providence
60 67 Marquette
79 83 DePaul
84 87 Creighton
111 113 St. John's
118 121 Butler
205 245 Georgetown
I'm sorry, i know it's been provided before. But, what is the typical NET ranking (range) for an NCAA at large bid?
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I'm sorry, i know it's been provided before. But, what is the typical NET ranking (range) for an NCAA at large bid?
Brew mentioned only twice has a team worse than 60 made the ncaa tourney and both in 2019.
Don’t recall where he mentioned it.
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I'm sorry, i know it's been provided before. But, what is the typical NET ranking (range) for an NCAA at large bid?
Inside the top-40 is generally very safe. 40-50 is good shape for a high-major. 50-60 you better have a really good resume. Past 60, you're probably getting left out unless you have 21+ wins and at least a couple marquee victories.
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I can't seem to find it now, but at one point there was a RPI forecast where you could predict RPI based on the outcomes of games. Do they have something for NET that you know of?
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I can't seem to find it now, but at one point there was a RPI forecast where you could predict RPI based on the outcomes of games. Do they have something for NET that you know of?
That was RPI wizard. I don't think there's an net equivalent because to my knowledge the formula for NET has never been released and no one has reverse engineered it
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That was RPI wizard. I don't think there's an net equivalent because to my knowledge the formula for NET has never been released and no one has reverse engineered it
Gotcha. I was curious as to what our BE record might need to be to meet the thresholds in brew's post above. (Assuming a loss to UCLA Saturday.)
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As an aside, I am trying to find the preseason prognostications of our fellow scoopers. If anyone can link that, it would be greatly appreciated, and I will double my annual scoop donation.
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I can't seem to find it now, but at one point there was a RPI forecast where you could predict RPI based on the outcomes of games. Do they have something for NET that you know of?
They don't because the NET formula hasn't been cracked yet. Torvik does have his TeamCast, which has similarities to RPI Forecast, but I haven't tested it for accuracy. It does include some metric predictions, but I'm not sure how useful they are. It essentially gives a game-by-game option and where you'd be seeded based on those results.
That said, I'd be skeptical of it's projections. I went through the simulator with Marquette winning out, so beating UCLA, going 20-0 in the Big East, and winning the BET by beating Providence, UConn, and 'Nova, and while it did have us in the tourney, we were only a 7-seed. But if you want to test it out, here it is:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2022
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They don't because the NET formula hasn't been cracked yet. Torvik does have his TeamCast, which has similarities to RPI Forecast, but I haven't tested it for accuracy. It does include some metric predictions, but I'm not sure how useful they are. It essentially gives a game-by-game option and where you'd be seeded based on those results.
That said, I'd be skeptical of it's projections. I went through the simulator with Marquette winning out, so beating UCLA, going 20-0 in the Big East, and winning the BET by beating Providence, UConn, and 'Nova, and while it did have us in the tourney, we were only a 7-seed. But if you want to test it out, here it is:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2022
Lol. Has there ever been a high major team that went 32-2 and didn't get a 1 seed?
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Lol. Has there ever been a high major team that went 32-2 and didn't get a 1 seed?
Has! Agreed.
Also it seems the NET adds more weight to wins and losses than Kenpom based on moving up more quickly with the same efficiency data.
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That said, I'd be skeptical of it's projections. I went through the simulator with Marquette winning out, so beating UCLA, going 20-0 in the Big East, and winning the BET by beating Providence, UConn, and 'Nova, and while it did have us in the tourney, we were only a 7-seed. But if you want to test it out, here it is:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2022
Seems legit.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 9,2021
New Old
5 6 Villanova
15 14 UConn
18 20 Xavier
23 26 Seton Hall
36 35 Providence
60 60 Marquette
72 79 DePaul
82 84 Creighton
94 111 St. John's
120 118 Butler
206 205 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 9,2021
New Old
5 6 Villanova
15 14 UConn
18 20 Xavier
23 26 Seton Hall
36 35 Providence
60 60 Marquette
72 79 DePaul
82 84 Creighton
94 111 St. John's
120 118 Butler
206 205 Georgetown
***
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Beard is a drag on that program.
-
Beard is a drag on that program.
Why has Texas collapsed since Shaka left?
Is Beard that bad of a coach?
Is Shake that good of a coach?
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They don't because the NET formula hasn't been cracked yet. Torvik does have his TeamCast, which has similarities to RPI Forecast, but I haven't tested it for accuracy. It does include some metric predictions, but I'm not sure how useful they are. It essentially gives a game-by-game option and where you'd be seeded based on those results.
That said, I'd be skeptical of it's projections. I went through the simulator with Marquette winning out, so beating UCLA, going 20-0 in the Big East, and winning the BET by beating Providence, UConn, and 'Nova, and while it did have us in the tourney, we were only a 7-seed. But if you want to test it out, here it is:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2022
You have to check the box to use his "DynamaRank" to change all the teams' rankings to reflect the results you pick. I think otherwise the algorithm balances the record with our current ranking in his system.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 9,2021
New Old
5 6 Villanova
15 14 UConn
18 20 Xavier
23 26 Seton Hall
36 35 Providence
60 60 Marquette
72 79 DePaul
82 84 Creighton
94 111 St. John's
120 118 Butler
206 205 Georgetown
MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.
Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They’ve won several of them by 30+ though.
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MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.
Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They’ve won several of them by 30+ though.
That is a weird artifact of how the analytics are weighted.
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MU has way too many good wins to still have this low of a NET ranking. It seems they need to do a better job of beating the cupcakes by 20-30+ points as dumb as that sounds.
Texas is ranked 21 and has only won buy games this year. They’ve won several of them by 30+ though.
It'll balance out by the end of the year. But yes, how much you beat the cupcakes by does matter
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It'll balance out by the end of the year. But yes, how much you beat the cupcakes by does matter
"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"
"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."
Flawed system.
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"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"
"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."
Flawed system.
So there is no difference between beating a team by one or beating them by 30?
Edit to add: I don't think coaches should coach to NET ratings whatsoever. Keeping a star out of the game and only winning by 15 is a long-run better play.
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There is a huge difference. Narrow wins over cupcakes hurt more than narrow wins over power teams help.
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"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"
"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."
Flawed system.
Good teams win, great teams embarrass their opponents and taunt
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So there is no difference between beating a team by one or beating them by 30?
Edit to add: I don't think coaches should coach to NET ratings whatsoever. Keeping a star out of the game and only winning by 15 is a long-run better play.
What if it costs them an NCAA bid? If taking Lewis out of a 15-point game against DePaul turns out to have cost us an NCAA bid that we would have gotten if we had won by 30, which would have been a better play? On a smaller scale, what if it costs a tourney-bound team a seed line or two?
It's an idiotic system and it should be altered. The program-designers certainly have the ability to do it.
BTW, I agree with you. If I were Shaka, I'd try real hard not to think about NET during a game.
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What if it costs them an NCAA bid? If taking Lewis out of a 15-point game against DePaul turns out to have cost us an NCAA bid that we would have gotten if we had won by 30, which would have been a better play? On a smaller scale, what if it costs a tourney-bound team a seed line or two?
It's an idiotic system and it should be altered. The program-designers certainly have the ability to do it.
BTW, I agree with you. If I were Shaka, I'd try real hard not to think about NET during a game.
I know when the NET was created the NCAA tried to cap the margin of victory at 10, meaning a 10 point win and a 20 point win would be viewed the same. Unfortunately, it isn't playing out that way at all. I think fixing that bug (if they want to) would be a good move.
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"Looks like Stud McStuddy blew out his knee, Coach. Why was he still in a game you were leading by 24 with 40 seconds to go?"
"Because some idiotic system called NET says we needed to win by 30 for it to look better on our resume."
Flawed system.
That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers. But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score. The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.
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That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers. But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score. The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.
Yep. He seems real tortured by it. That sucks for Bueckers, who is an amazing player and so fun to watch.
But yes, that's the exact kind of thing that can -- and probably will -- happen in a men's game if a coach feels he has to chase "the NET number."
I said in an earlier comment that if I were Shaka I'd try real hard not to even think about the NET during a game. But if I go into the final game knowing I probably need to win huge to make the tourney, I guess I keep my foot on the gas no matter what -- starters in the game in the last minute even if I'm up 25 (or down 20).
I guess it would be kind of like one of those soccer playoffs where they play 2 games and use total goals; even if you're up 2-0, if you lost the first game 3-0, you need to keep trying to score. If there were ever 2 goals in a soccer game, of course! 8-)
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That's basically what happened to UConn's star Paige Bueckers. But that is because Geno is a jerk who just likes to run up the score. The NET would have meant nothing to them, because they were headed for their customary 30-2 or something season anyway.
Geno being an ass doesn't get talked about enough.
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I know when the NET was created the NCAA tried to cap the margin of victory at 10, meaning a 10 point win and a 20 point win would be viewed the same. Unfortunately, it isn't playing out that way at all. I think fixing that bug (if they want to) would be a good move.
Eliminate the 10-point cap that had the opposite effect and make the efficiency margin regressive and it'll be sorted.
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Eliminate the 10-point cap that had the opposite effect and make the efficiency margin regressive and it'll be sorted.
What do you mean by "make the efficiency margin regressive," brew?
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What do you mean by "make the efficiency margin regressive," brew?
Basically, the more you beat a team by, the less each individual point matters.
Right now the difference between beating a team by 1 and beating a team by two is worth as much as the difference between beating a team by 38 and beating a team by 39. Brews suggestion would make it so running up the score has diminishing returns. I agree with Brews suggestion
Shaka clearly cares about the NET. He had scholarship players pressing the Bonnie's v and Badgers walk ons to cut the margin of victory
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Basically, the more you beat a team by, the less each individual point matters.
Right now the difference between beating a team by 1 and beating a team by two is worth as much as the difference between beating a team by 38 and beating a team by 39. Brews suggestion would make it so running up the score has diminishing returns. I agree with Brews suggestion
Shaka clearly cares about the NET. He had scholarship players pressing the Bonnie's v and Badgers walk ons to cut the margin of victory
Thanks for the explainer. I agree with brew and you -- they should change the idiotic formula.
Thankfully, Kam Jones didn't get hurt pressing Madison walk-ons to get the margin under 20. It's pretty sad that it's come to that.
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DePaul moved up to 50 NET (from 72) after their road win at Louisville. No other major changes.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 10, 2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
14 15 UConn
18 18 Xavier
23 23 Seton Hall
36 36 Providence
50 72 DePaul
60 60 Marquette
82 82 Creighton
96 94 St. John's
123 120 Butler
205 206 Georgetown
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We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka
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We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka
Truth.
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We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka
Al McGuire was never behind DePaul in NET.
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Whereas Wisconsin was a huge strength of Wojos, DePaul was a massive weakness.
Hopefully for Shaka he fares much better against a better DePaul squad.
This season screams of a split at best under the previous regime. Although the crowds at Wintrust have been better and louder it isn’t a daunting road game for MU just yet, especially with the MU faithful that are always in attendance.
I expect a home win and hope for a season sweep, but the away game on Wednesday March 2 may become one of the most important games of the year if this squad continues to play the bubble dance.
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We're below DePaul in NET. Fire Shaka
For kicks, I looked at the UofL fan board. Looked like about 95% want Mack fired. Most likely won't happen until the NCAA lowers the boom on them. It sounds like they are cash strapped and are stuck with him. Can't feel tooo bad for Mack, he got huge money to go there. I wouldn't be surprised if Mack was on ESPN within two years. Maybe Wojo can get into the ACC?
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Al McGuire was never behind DePaul in NET.
Al punched both DePaul and NET in the face ... all in one swing.
Then they hugged, and Al told DePaul and NET to go pro because ... um ... cracked sidewalks?
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Al McGuire was never behind DePaul in NET.
Post of the day.
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MU dropped from 60 to 76 in the NET rankings following the loss to UCLA
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11,2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
14 14 UConn
15 18 Xavier
22 23 Seton Hall
39 36 Providence
51 50 DePaul
58 82 Creighton
76 60 Marquette
95 96 St. John's
137 123 Butler
174 205 Georgetown
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MU dropped from 60 to 76 in the NET rankings following the loss to UCLA
That’s a bit further than I expected, however it was a really bad day not only for MU but also for their opponents
Ole Miss lost 71-48 to western Kentucky, woof.
Illinois lost at home to a very good Arizona
Wisconsin got drubbed at OSU 73-55
St Bonnies lost by 10 to UConn
New Hampshire lost at Duquesne
It’s impossible to figure out but I would bet MU woulda dropped well into the 80s had they have lost by 25
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11,2021
New Old
5 5 Villanova
14 14 UConn
15 18 Xavier
22 23 Seton Hall
39 36 Providence
51 50 DePaul
58 82 Creighton
76 60 Marquette
95 96 St. John's
137 123 Butler
174 205 Georgetown
Both DePaul fans look at that, and they're counting on going 8-0 against Georgetown, Butler, St. John's and Marquette.
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Marquette’s Net moved to #75 from #76
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Marquette’s Net moved to #75 from #76
#1 by February 26, 2022! Just in time for our NCAA overall #1 seed.
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Marquette’s Net moved to #75 from #76
Broken system?!?
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Broken system?!?
Believe they adjusted them later same day
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of December 12,2021
New Old
9 5 Villanova
15 14 UConn
16 15 Xavier
25 22 Seton Hall
39 39 Providence
52 51 DePaul
57 58 Creighton
75 76 Marquette
84 95 St. John's
134 137 Butler
172 174 Georgetown
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When do conference NET rankings come out? I would assume the Big 12 will be the Top conference:
2 3 Baylor Big 12 9-0 0-0 3-0 6-0 2-0 1-0 3-0 3-0
5 7 Kansas Big 12 8-1 1-0 3-1 4-0 1-0 3-1 0-0 4-0
17 17 Iowa St. Big 12 10-0 1-0 2-0 7-0 2-0 2-0 0-0 6-0
19 20 Texas Tech Big 12 7-1 0-1 2-0 5-0 1-1 0-0 0-0 6-0
23 24 Texas Big 12 6-2 0-2 0-0 6-0 0-2 0-0 1-0 5-0
38 38 Oklahoma Big 12 8-2 1-0 3-1 4-1 1-1 2-0 2-1 3-0
56 57 West Virginia Big 12 9-1 0-0 2-1 7-0 1-0 2-1 1-0 5-0
61 61 Oklahoma St. Big 12 6-3 1-0 2-0 3-3 0-1 0-2 4-0 2-0
63 64 TCU Big 12 8-1 0-0 3-1 5-0 0-0 2-1 1-0 5-0
96 97 Kansas St. Big 12 6-3 1-0 0-2 5-1 1-1 0-2 0-0 5-0
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 13, 2021
New Old
9 9 Villanova
15 15 UConn
16 16 Xavier
25 25 Seton Hall
38 39 Providence
51 52 DePaul
57 57 Creighton
73 75 Marquette
83 84 St. John's
133 134 Butler
174 172 Georgetown
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 13
AP
9. Nova
16. The Hall
20. U Conn
22. X
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company, Creighton
Coaches
10. Nova
16. The Hall
22. U Conn
25. X
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 13, 2021
New Old
9 9 Villanova
15 15 UConn
16 16 Xavier
25 25 Seton Hall
38 39 Providence
51 52 DePaul
57 57 Creighton
73 75 Marquette
83 84 St. John's
133 134 Butler
174 172 Georgetown
Has DePaul hung their Median of the Big East banner yet
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 14,2021
New Old
9 9 Villanova
14 15 UConn
15 16 Xavier
24 25 Seton Hall
39 38 Providence
51 51 DePaul
73 73 Marquette
77 57 Creighton
83 83 St. John's
132 133 Butler
174 174 Georgetown
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Flyin' past the Bluejays!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 15,2021
New Old
9 9 Villanova
13 15 Xavier
14 14 UConn
24 24 Seton Hall
41 39 Providence
52 51 DePaul
74 73 Marquette
81 77 Creighton
84 83 St. John's
133 132 Butler
166 174 Georgetown
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Speaking of something not helping our NET …
The Bonnies are losing by about 200 points to Va Tech.
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Speaking of something not helping our NET …
The Bonnies are losing by about 200 points to Va Tech.
You exaggerate. It was only 86-49, final score.
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You exaggerate. It was only 86-49, final score.
I said "about"!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 16,2021
New Old
10 9 Villanova
13 13 Xavier
14 14 UConn
24 24 Seton Hall
41 41 Providence
52 52 DePaul
74 74 Marquette
81 81 Creighton
86 84 St. John's
132 133 Butler
169 166 Georgetown
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I thought maybe the Bonnies were missing a couple players due to Covid or something else ... but nope ... their starting lineup for this game was the exact same as it was against us, and their top-minute subs against us also were their top-minute subs in this one.
Just played like shyte, I assume.
According to the AP article, they actually banked in a 3 at the buzzer to avoid losing by 40.
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Nova getting waxed at Creighton.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 17,2021
New Old
11 13 Xavier
14 14 UConn
17 10 Villanova
24 24 Seton Hall
40 41 Providence
53 52 DePaul
57 81 Creighton
79 74 Marquette
84 86 St. John's
135 132 Butler
167 169 Georgetown
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Oof. Thanks Bonnies.
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Big East NET ranking as of games of December 18, 2021
New Old
12 11 Xavier
16 17 Villanova
21 14 UConn
26 24 Seton Hall
31 40 Providence
57 53 DePaul
58 57 Creighton
68 79 Marquette
114 84 St. John's
163 135 Butler
171 167 Georgetown
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NET is now in a range where we could hope for a tourney bid.
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Big East NET ranking as of games of December 18, 2021
New Old
12 11 Xavier
16 17 Villanova
21 14 UConn
26 24 Seton Hall
31 40 Providence
57 53 DePaul
58 57 Creighton
68 79 Marquette
114 84 St. John's
163 135 Butler
171 167 Georgetown
Creighton gets a nice win vs Nova and their NET gets worse; Nova loses to Creighton and their NET gets better; we lose by 9 and our NET gets better. Fun!
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Creighton gets a nice win vs Nova and their NET gets worse; Nova loses to Creighton and their NET gets better; we lose by 9 and our NET gets better. Fun!
This was the NET adjustment after their Friday night game:
Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 17,2021
New Old
11 13 Xavier
14 14 UConn
17 10 Villanova
24 24 Seton Hall
40 41 Providence
53 52 DePaul
57 81 Creighton
79 74 Marquette
84 86 St. John's
135 132 Butler
167 169 Georgetown
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This was the NET adjustment after their Friday night game:
Thanks brew. That makes more sense!
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Imagine what it could’ve been had MU only lost by 2!
That Kolek early in the clock attempt was painful on several levels, but there was 1:48 left and MU was down 3.
Complete mishandle of that last 2 minutes led to a 9 pt defeat and likely cost several spots in the NET
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 19,2021
New Old
11 12 Xavier
17 16 Villanova
21 21 UConn
26 26 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
52 57 DePaul
57 58 Creighton
65 68 Marquette
113 114 St. John's
161 163 Butler
167 171 Georgetown
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 20,2021
AP
15. The Hall
18.X
22. Cooley & Company
23.Nova
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn, Creighton
Coaches
15. The Hall
20.X
22. Nova
23. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn
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I admit that I didn't think there would be a single day this season in which PC was ranked higher than Wright & Co.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 20,2021
New Old
11 11 Xavier
17 17 Villanova
21 21 UConn
26 26 Seton Hall
32 31 Providence
55 52 DePaul
58 57 Creighton
64 65 Marquette
113 113 St. John's
161 161 Butler
166 167 Georgetown
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So MU has gone from 79 to 64, an improvement of 15 spots, in 3 days following a 9 pt loss at Xavier.
That’s really nice.
A win tonight would likely mean another 15-20 spot jump into the 40s, let’s do this!!!
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So MU has gone from 79 to 64, an improvement of 15 spots, in 3 days following a 9 pt loss at Xavier.
That’s really nice.
A win tonight would likely mean another 15-20 spot jump into the 40s, let’s do this!!!
Don't think it'd be that significant unless it was a blowout. We're only 4 point underdogs/
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So MU has gone from 79 to 64, an improvement of 15 spots, in 3 days following a 9 pt loss at Xavier.
That’s really nice.
A win tonight would likely mean another 15-20 spot jump into the 40s, let’s do this!!!
As MU plays more Big East teams, their NET will go up provided they don't get their butts handed to them. We absolutely did enough in the non-conference to earn a bid in conference play. Just have to win the games.
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As MU plays more Big East teams, their NET will go up provided they don't get their butts handed to them. We absolutely did enough in the non-conference to earn a bid in conference play. Just have to win the games.
Yup. 11 anyway we can get them should earn a bid (including conf tourney).
10 would likely have MU right on the bubble and my instinct tells me would put us in a First Four game.
Of course that assumes all the games are played, and we are already seeing a lot of cancellations.
Crazy to think that 13 more wins on the season could make this season wildly successful: 10-10 in conf, 1-1 in NY, earn a bid and win 2 to get to the sweet 16 or win a first 4 game and round of 64 game.
Tbh even 12 more wins could make this season wildly successful- one win in the dance would elate the masses after years worth of no tourney wins.
Lets start with 1 tonight
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#ElateTheMasses
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#ElateTheMasses
#WeMust
#ElateTheMasses
#WeAreMarquette
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Ole Miss losing to Samford isn't going to help MU.
-
Big East Poll and Net Rankings as of games of December 21,2021
New Old
13 17 Villanova
17 21 UConn
18 11 Xavier
27 26 Seton Hall
31 32 Providence
56 55 DePaul
57 58 Creighton
76 64 Marquette
114 113 St. John's
163 161 Butler
169 166 Georgetown
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Big East Poll and Net Rankings as of games of December 21,2021
New Old
13 17 Villanova
17 21 UConn
18 11 Xavier
27 26 Seton Hall
31 32 Providence
56 55 DePaul
57 58 Creighton
76 64 Marquette
114 113 St. John's
163 161 Butler
169 166 Georgetown
Should've pulled a Seton Hall, I guess.
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Should've pulled a Seton Hall, I guess.
Ole Miss hurt us the most.
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Ole Miss hurt us the most.
Good call. I was trying to think what previous opponents played last night as well.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 22,2021
New Old
12 13 Villanova
16 17 UConn
19 18 Xavier
28 27 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
55 57 Creighton
57 56 DePaul
72 76 Marquette
115 114 St. John's
154 163 Butler
165 169 Georgetown
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of December 23, 2021
New Old
12 12 Villanova
16 16 UConn
19 19 Xavier
25 28 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
58 55 Creighton
59 57 DePaul
72 72 Marquette
115 115 St. John's
153 154 Butler
162 165 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 25,2021
New Old
12 12 Villanova
16 16 UConn
19 19 Xavier
25 25 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
57 58 Creighton
59 59 DePaul
72 72 Marquette
115 115 St. John's
153 153 Butler
162 162 Georgetown
-
Big East Poll Rankings as of December 27, 2021
AP
15. The Hall
21. Cooley & Company
22. Nova
23. X
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn, Creighton
Coaches
13. The Hall
21. Cooley & Company
22. Nova
24. X
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 27, 2021
New Old
12 12 Villanova
16 16 UConn
19 19 Xavier
25 25 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
58 59 DePaul
59 57 Creighton
73 72 Marquette
116 115 St. John's
152 153 Butler
157 162 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 28,2021
New Old
12 12 Villanova
17 16 UConn
20 19 Xavier
24 25 Seton Hall
31 31 Providence
57 58 DePaul
59 59 Creighton
73 73 Marquette
116 116 St. John's
151 152 Butler
157 157 Georgetown
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 29, 2021
New Old
11 12 Villanova
16 17 UConn
20 20 Xavier
27 24 Seton Hall
28 31 Providence
56 59 Creighton
66 57 DePaul
75 73 Marquette
116 116 St. John's
126 151 Butler
162 157 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30,2021
New Old
11 11 Villanova
16 16 UConn
20 20 Xavier
27 27 Seton Hall
29 28 Providence
56 56 Creighton
70 66 DePaul
76 75 Marquette
113 116 St. John's
124 126 Butler
152 162 Georgetown
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Big East Net rankings as of games of January 1, 2022
New Old
11 11 Villanova
16 15 UConn
22 21 Xavier
27 28 Providence
28 27 Seton Hall
51 56 Creighton
83 76 Marquette
88 70 DePaul
113 113 St. John's
125 124 Butler
156 149 Georgetown
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Thanks for the updates, HC. New Xavier and Georgetown ratings correct?
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Thanks for the updates, HC. New Xavier and Georgetown ratings correct?
That is what is showing on the official site.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 2,2022
11 11 Villanova
16 16 UConn
22 22 Xavier
27 27 Providence
28 28 Seton Hall
53 51 Creighton
83 83 Marquette
88 88 DePaul
116 113 St. John's
124 125 Butler
161 156 Georgetown
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Big East Poll Rankings as of January 3,2022
AP
16. Cooley & Company
19. Nova
22. X
24. The Hall
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn, Creighton
Coaches
15. Nova
17. Cooley & Company
22. The Hall
24. X
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2022
New Old
10 11 Villanova
16 16 UConn
21 22 Xavier
24 27 Providence
29 28 Seton Hall
55 53 Creighton
83 83 Marquette
88 88 DePaul
115 116 St. John's
127 124 Butler
157 161 Georgetown
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Lets see what Herman has for us tomorrow…
I’ll go with 66 in tomorrows NET.
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Lets see what Herman has for us tomorrow…
I’ll go with 66 in tomorrows NET.
Went from 85 to 61 in Kenpom.
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Went from 85 to 61 in Kenpom.
Pretty amazing boost in our KenPom ranking.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2022
New Old
10 11 Villanova
16 16 UConn
21 22 Xavier
24 27 Providence
29 28 Seton Hall
55 53 Creighton
83 83 Marquette
88 88 DePaul
115 116 St. John's
127 124 Butler
157 161 Georgetown
Over under 65 tomorrow?
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110 to 76 in T Rank.
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Over under 65 tomorrow?
<65 is my guess. NET is typically more fluid this time of year than KenPom and Torvik
Also, NET liked Providence a lot better than KenPom. NET had them at 24 and KenPom had them at 40.
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Marquette NET 57
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NET just came out Marquette is 57
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Big East Poll and NET rankings as of games of January 4,2022
New Old
11 10 Villanova
17 16 UConn
23 21 Xavier
26 29 Seton Hall
33 24 Providence
49 55 Creighton
57 83 Marquette
91 88 DePaul
115 115 St. John's
139 127 Butler
156 157 Georgetown
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Damn, winning that Creighton game would really have us in a solid spot.
Gotta get the next two and keep it rolling.
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That’s awesome. 26 spot jump is massive and probably the biggest single day jump for a BE team this season.
In comparison, Creighton beat Nova by 20 at home on Dec 17th and jumped 24 spots, Nova was 10th at the time.
Those margins really play a massive role in the NET. If MU wins by less than 10 they are likely still in the 70s
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That’s awesome. 26 spot jump is massive and probably the biggest single day jump for a BE team this season.
Not even close. Just off the top of my head, these two came to mind:
Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11,2021
New Old
174 205 Georgetown (-31)
Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2021
New Old
121 199 Butler -78
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Not even close. Just off the top of my head, these two came to mind:
Ok fine how about for teams that actually have NCAA tourney hopes
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Ok fine how about for teams that actually have NCAA tourney hopes
Maybe, but Creighton jumped 24 when they beat Villanova, and it wouldn't surprise me if the early NET results had similarly large shifts. NET is subject to drastic swings in the first couple months because it only incorporates this year's data. That's why I predicted last night we would jump more in NET than we did in kenpom, because kenpom's data set has extra data factored in until mid to late January. When there's a huge outlier results, the extra data in kenpom lessens the impact a little bit of that outlier, whereas NET is only this season so the results lead to bigger swings.
Honestly, that's why I wished they waited to put the NET out until later. I know everyone wants as much information as possible, but while a game like last night will always lead to big swings, the more data you have the more accurate it is. That's why the first NET usually has some ridiculous teams really high (Wyoming was #12, Wagner #23 are two that stand out). Better to bring it out around between Christmas and the New Year. You have a natural lull in games during that week and people are content-starved, while it also provides better data than an early-December release. At least get a third of the season done first.
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Just an absolutely huge win, and even better that we kept the massive lead throughout. We might still have hope
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 6, 2022
New Old
8 11 Villanova
17 17 UConn
22 23 Xavier
24 26 Seton Hall
33 33 Providence
58 57 Marquette
65 49 Creighton
98 91 DePaul
109 115 St. John's
139 139 Butler
158 156 Georgetown
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Up to 49th in KenPom
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Gtown sucks but will be interesting to see what a 28 pt beating does for the Net
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KenPom instantaneous, nice
85 to 61 to 49 in 2 games in KenPom, wowzers.
I’m pretty sure the NET uses KenPom as one of its metrics, so it should be a nice lift in the NET as well.
Likely into the 40s
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When was the last time MU put
consecutive 30 Point Beat downs on two conference opponents??
Wow. And ... thank you again Wes Matthew’s
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Gtown sucks but will be interesting to see what a 28 pt beating does for the Net
Agree especially on the road
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KenPom instantaneous, nice
85 to 61 to 49 in 2 games in KenPom, wowzers.
I’m pretty sure the NET uses KenPom as one of its metrics, so it should be a nice lift in the NET as well.
Likely into the 40s
The NET is its own formula and doesn't use other metrics, but Pomeroy was one of the mathematicians they brought in to consult when designing the NET & his site is usually the closest analogue to the NCAA formula.
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The NET is its own formula and doesn't use other metrics, but Pomeroy was one of the mathematicians they brought in to consult when designing the NET & his site is usually the closest analogue to the NCAA formula.
Did they consult with you?
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Did they consult with you?
LOL definitely not. But they should when it comes to Selection Sunday. 😜
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But they should when it comes to Selection Sunday. 😜
Disagree! You say we need 11 wins to get in. Hoping for someone more generous haha.
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Disagree! You say we need 11 wins to get in. Hoping for someone more generous haha.
He’s gonna have to change his tune soon with all these blowout wins!!
Those metrics are starting to look really appetizing even with 10 wins, amirite Brew?
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Those metrics are starting to look really appetizing even with 10 wins, amirite Brew?
Actually...yes. Part of the reason I've been saying 11 is because I thought that's what it would take to get to around 55 in NET. We'll be in the 40s by morning and if we get to 10 Big East wins, should be in the 35-45 range in the NET. That lowers our needed threshold to 18 wins, though I don't think it will get lower than that. 17 is too few no matter what the metrics look like, unless we lose another game and don't make up St John's.
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Nice!
Fair warning though- they work both ways!
One blowout loss to DePaul and it’s back to square one
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(https://www.yourtango.com/sites/default/files/2016%20Oct/ezgif.com-resize%20(62)_0.gif)
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NET just came out Marquette is 45
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Actually...yes. Part of the reason I've been saying 11 is because I thought that's what it would take to get to around 55 in NET. We'll be in the 40s by morning and if we get to 10 Big East wins, should be in the 35-45 range in the NET. That lowers our needed threshold to 18 wins, though I don't think it will get lower than that. 17 is too few no matter what the metrics look like, unless we lose another game and don't make up St John's.
Bottom of bubble at 17
top of bubble at 18
In at 19.
I think it was Indiana or N.C. St who got in with 17 wins pre-covid. At the time I did not think a 17 win team should of gotten a bid over a mdi-major. It seems like Syracuse is always getting in with a lousy record and they usually win their first game.
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Bottom of bubble at 17
top of bubble at 18
In at 19.
I think it was Indiana or N.C. St who got in with 17 wins pre-covid. At the time I did not think a 17 win team should of gotten a bid over a mdi-major. It seems like Syracuse is always getting in with a lousy record and they usually win their first game.
Off hand, I think the last sub 18 team to get in as an at-large before COVID was that 16-14 Georgia team. Oklahoma got in at 18-13. Both Indiana (2006) and NC State (2003) got in with 18, but that was awhile ago.
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I know Vandy like 5 years back was 17-14 pre sec tourney.
They won a couple in SEC tourney but I’m pretty sure 1. Most thought they were in at 17-14 and 2. They avoided play in with the 19-15 or whatever it ended up
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I said months ago that my expectation for this season were to be in by March 1st, not a bubble team. There is not a team that we cannot beat if firing on all cylinders and we should do that more often than not moving forward. I would be disappointed if we are on bubble watch going into BE tourney.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 7,2022
New Old
8 8 Villanova
15 16 UConn
20 20 Xavier
26 26 Seton Hall
33 34 Providence
45 55 Marquette
58 65 Creighton
97 98 DePaul
105 104 St. John's
146 141 Butler
190 157 Georgetown
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NET just came out Marquette is 44
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I feel like Syracuse gets in with 17 wins all the time (and I am too lazy to check that).
I think if we can just remain in the last 4 in conversation, it will be hard to take someone else’s resume over ours…
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 8, 2022
New Old
7 8 Villanova
15 15 UConn
17 20 Xavier
25 26 Seton Hall
33 33 Providence
44 45 Marquette
66 58 Creighton
103 97 DePaul
108 105 St. John's
138 146 Butler
191 190 Georgetown
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I feel like Syracuse gets in with 17 wins all the time (and I am too lazy to check that).
I think if we can just remain in the last 4 in conversation, it will be hard to take someone else’s resume over ours…
I wasn't too lazy, last year was the only time in the past 20 Tournaments that Syracuse got in with fewer than 19 wins. They were 16-9, and if you just project .500 to a more regular season (6 more games) they would be 19-12, certainly worth consideration.
But as far as the bubble goes, I agree. We have some really nice wins that not a lot of other teams can match.
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I think if we can just remain in the last 4 in conversation, it will be hard to take someone else’s resume over ours…
This. Some really weak resumes for bubble teams out there.
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Lunardi has us and Virginia Tech as last four teams. This is their resume to date.
Obviously a lot of games left to play but if these are the resumes we are going against if we can stay on the bubble I feel much better.
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This. Some really weak resumes for bubble teams out there.
Is it a soft bubble?
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Lunardi has us and Virginia Tech as last four teams. This is their resume to date.
Obviously a lot of games left to play but if these are the resumes we are going against if we can stay on the bubble I feel much better.
The Buzz Williams Legacy. #TBW
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Is it a soft bubble?
Seems like it always is until it isn't. 2018 turned out to have a tough bubble (ND, Louisville, Marquette among the teams with legit gripes at being left out).
This year it will depend on who's there. If it's teams from the SEC, Big 10, Big East, & Big 12, it will be a tough bubble. Because those leagues all provide a ton of good win opportunities, so teams that fail to separate themselves will likely have some solid wins and computer numbers.
But if those leagues have clear dividing lines (say Big East 1-7 solidly in, 8-11 clearly out) and the bubble is a mix of ACC, American, and Pac-12 teams, you'll have a soft bubble because those teams will have some gross resumes.
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Seems like it always is until it isn't. 2018 turned out to have a tough bubble (ND, Louisville, Marquette among the teams with legit gripes at being left out).
This year it will depend on who's there. If it's teams from the SEC, Big 10, Big East, & Big 12, it will be a tough bubble. Because those leagues all provide a ton of good win opportunities, so teams that fail to separate themselves will likely have some solid wins and computer numbers.
But if those leagues have clear dividing lines (say Big East 1-7 solidly in, 8-11 clearly out) and the bubble is a mix of ACC, American, and Pac-12 teams, you'll have a soft bubble because those teams will have some gross resumes.
Good point.
Your bracketology insight is awesome and appreciated, thanks for all the data.
Do you find it hard to remove your Marquette bias from your work or is it easy for you?
I’m not a big bettor, just do it occasionally and casually to add more excitement and skin in some of the games, but I find it nearly impossible to bet against MU so I never do. I actually only try to bet MU when I’m supremely confident and have last minute insider info about the opposition missing a key piece etc, which I often times get from scoop.
Since I keep a close eye on the BE I feel like I have a bit of an advantage on other BE games that I’m neutral on, however.
It’s not an apples to apples comparison but I wonder if it’s difficult to look at MU in a completely neutral light, especially in a year they may end up on the bubble?
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Do you find it hard to remove your Marquette bias from your work or is it easy for you?
I'd like to think I'm getting better at it. From 2014-16, it didn't matter much because we weren't a tourney team. I thought they deserved a bid in 2018. I do pay attention to other brackets and when I find I differ significantly, whether on Marquette or anyone, I ask some of the other bracketologists what they see that I don't. Usually Delphi, Kevin Pulsipher, Dave Omman, and Jim Root are good about responding and providing feedback that helps me get better at placing Marquette and others I may have a soft spot for.
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Marquette NET remains at 44
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of January 9, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
14 15 UConn
18 18 Xavier
26 25 Seton Hall
35 33 Providence
44 44 Marquette
64 66 Creighton
103 103 DePaul
108 106 St. John's
136 137 Butler
185 189 Georgetown
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Big East Poll Rankings as of January 10,2022
AP
14. Nova
17.X
20. The Hall
23.Cooley& Company
Others Receiving Votes:
U Conn
Coaches
14.Nova
18. The Hall
20.Cooley&Company
21. X
Others Receiving Votes:
U Conn
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of January 10,2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
14 14 UConn
17 18 Xavier
26 26 Seton Hall
35 35 Providence
44 44 Marquette
64 64 Creighton
104 103 DePaul
108 108 St. John's
136 136 Butler
192 185 Georgetown
1/10/22 Team Sheets . Marquette is #44
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Illinois, Mississippi, West Virginia, Bonaventure, and NIU all play today. Could be an interesting day for our advanced numbers.
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Illinois, Mississippi, West Virginia, Bonaventure, and NIU all play today. Could be an interesting day for our advanced numbers.
Ole Miss and St. Bonaventure are both pretty close to moving up to Q2 games. Both would be helpful.
Looking at the rest of our resume, K-State could get up to Q1 as well.
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Illinois, Mississippi, West Virginia, Bonaventure, and NIU all play today. Could be an interesting day for our advanced numbers.
Illini didn’t cover but were close
Ole Miss blown out by Buzz
WVU blows out OKSt
Bonnies win in OT against a crap team, not sure what’s happening there but it ain’t good. That team looked like an Elite 8 type team.
NIU wins on the road as a 15 pt underdog.
Most importantly MU was looking at a 20 pt victory and wins by 11. Still better than the expected margin but not as big of a difference as the 20pt win would bring.
All in all my guess is likely a marginal improvement in the NET, maybe 3-4 spots? It would be great to slid into the low 30s but I’m not sure it’ll happen. Regardless, still trending up!
Big one on Saturday. I previously said I felt that Providence at home was the best team/matchup to get a resounding win against to drastically improve the computer numbers and revive this seasons tourney chances. I feel like SH this Saturday is the second best opportunity…
Im not sure it’ll happen that way because it is starting to feel like a correction game is due sometime soon- I don’t mean a loss I just mean a reversion back to normalcy offensively- all Marquettes do reach equilibrium after all.
That said, the team is on a roll and it’s a big matchup versus a team with recent history that should have the crowd fired up, so I do still think that this is the second best opportunity for a big metrics win.
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Illini didn’t cover but were close
Ole Miss blown out by Buzz
WVU blows out OKSt
Bonnies win in OT against a crap team, not sure what’s happening there but it ain’t good. That team looked like an Elite 8 type team.
NIU wins on the road as a 15 pt underdog.
Most importantly MU was looking at a 20 pt victory and wins by 11. Still better than the expected margin but not as big of a difference as the 20pt win would bring.
All in all my guess is likely a marginal improvement in the NET, maybe 3-4 spots? It would be great to slid into the low 30s but I’m not sure it’ll happen. Regardless, still trending up!
Big one on Saturday. I previously said I felt that Providence at home was the best team/matchup to get a resounding win against to drastically improve the computer numbers and revive this seasons tourney chances. I feel like SH this Saturday is the second best opportunity…
Im not sure it’ll happen that way because it is starting to feel like a correction game is due sometime soon- I don’t mean a loss I just mean a reversion back to normalcy offensively- all Marquettes do reach equilibrium after all.
That said, the team is on a roll and it’s a big matchup versus a team with recent history that should have the crowd fired up, so I do still think that this is the second best opportunity for a big metrics win.
Up to 46 in kenpom
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Up to 46 in kenpom
45, 5th in the Big East at the moment. 6 of our 7 next games are against the 4 teams currently ranked above us and the 7th is a road game against the 6th highest team in the Big East.
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ek5QXqOEv1r0YIO49G/200.gif)
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45, 5th in the Big East at the moment. 6 of our 7 next games are against the 4 teams currently ranked above us and the 7th is a road game against the 6th highest team in the Big East.
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ek5QXqOEv1r0YIO49G/200.gif)
Really looking forward to this 7-game stretch. We are gonna learn a ton about this team. Fun to have big games against quality opponents.
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I'm actually ok with this settling back to a solid, but not resounding win. Shaka sounded like he was mildly unsatisfied with some of the plays that were left out there on the court, which I think bodes well moving forward.
I think this team will enter the SH game feeling good, but not complacent as though they have it all figured out.
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Really looking forward to this 7-game stretch. We are gonna learn a ton about this team. Fun to have big games against quality opponents.
The bad news is well probably lose most of them. The good news is we can go 1-6 and still have a reasonable shot at the tourney.
The best news is if we can somehow win 3 or 4 we're spending February talking about the possibility of a protected seed.
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The bad news is well probably lose most of them. The good news is we can go 1-6 and still have a reasonable shot at the tourney.
The best news is if we can somehow win 3 or 4 we're spending February talking about the possibility of a protected seed.
I don’t think this team goes 1-6. I expect at least three wins. The upper tier big East teams are beatable the way we are playing now. I would be very disappointed with 1-6.
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I don’t think this team goes 1-6. I expect at least three wins. The upper tier big East teams are beatable the way we are playing now. I would be very disappointed with 1-6.
Brew can tell us, but I would have to think if we go 3-4 over this stretch we're definitely talking single-digit seed. That would be amazing.
I'd be pretty happy with 2-5. That's two more Q1 wins which I think would put us in great position for a bid as long as we take care of business down the stretch.
1 and we're still fighting but need to be almost perfect on the home stretch.
0-7 would be quite disappointing but I don't think that will happen.
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1 win and we pretty much need to win out.
2 and we're bubbly, but with a favorable schedule to get in.
3 and we're solidly looking at a single digit seed.
4 and we're just playing for seeding.
5+, start thinking about protected seed locations.
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As most expected
We went up, but just slightly.
41 now.
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There is no doubt that they are facing a tough stretch, but not one of these teams is unbeatable. I would be disappointed if they did win at least three of the next seven. The guys are playing well, playing together and look extremely confident. There was no time last night did I feel they had a chance of losing. They were the better team and took care of business. I fully expect the trend of solid play to continue.
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SHU and X at home in the first 3 of this stretch are the big ones.
Really gotta get forsure 1 of them. Both to feel in a good spot for the last 4 of the gauntlet as the road games roll in.
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of January 11, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
16 14 UConn
18 17 Xavier
26 26 Seton Hall
33 35 Providence
41 44 Marquette
64 64 Creighton
107 108 St. John's
109 104 DePaul
141 136 Butler
189 192 Georgetown
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St. Bonaventure creeps up 3 to 106, Ole Miss falls 2 to 112. Love to see both of those get into the top-100 and become Q2 games.
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There is no doubt that they are facing a tough stretch, but not one of these teams is unbeatable. I would be disappointed if they did win at least three of the next seven. The guys are playing well, playing together and look extremely confident. There was no time last night did I feel they had a chance of losing. They were the better team and took care of business. I fully expect the trend of solid play to continue.
Yep, there is no "great" team in the Big East this season. There are some darn good ones, and we're trying to prove we are one of them; this stretch will go a long way toward determining that.
Like you, I certainly think 3-4 wins during this stretch is possible -- 3 home games and at Providence are "winnable" by any definition. Not sure what the likes of kenpom and torvik say, but then again they don't play.
I also never thought we faced the possibility of losing last night ... but then again DePaul is DePaul. You can count on them coming unglued, and I left quite unimpressed with their new coach. None of the 5 teams we'll be playing in this stretch is anywhere near as effed-up as DePaul. If we get wiped out on the boards by an actually good team, we probably can't count on 46% 3-point shooting to save us.
But again, I love your optimism -- and it's not misplaced at all. The only reason for any Scooper to be pessimistic is if he or she just wants to be a mope.
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Not sure what the likes of kenpom and torvik say, but then again they don't play.
KenPom says we are a dog in all 7 games, but that the most likely outcome is 2-5 followed by 1-6, followed by 3-4.
2-5 is fine. I won't be upset but I won't be particularly happy either. 3 or more wins and I'm pretty stoked. Seton Hall and Xavier at home and Providence on the road seem like the ripest games for the picking. At Nova is probably the only one I don't see a reasonable chance of victory.
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KenPom says we are a dog in all 7 games, but that the most likely outcome is 2-5 followed by 1-6, followed by 3-4.
2-5 is fine. I won't be upset but I won't be particularly happy either. 3 or more wins and I'm pretty stoked. Seton Hall and Xavier at home and Providence on the road seem like the ripest games for the picking. At Nova is probably the only one I don't see a reasonable chance of victory.
Thanks for the info.
In my mind, the Seton Hall game sets the tone for the next 3 1/2 weeks. Win that, and 4-3 feels very doable IMHO.
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Thanks for the info.
In my mind, the Seton Hall game sets the tone for the next 3 1/2 weeks. Win that, and 4-3 feels very doable IMHO.
This is my thought as well
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Also, not to be that guy, but keep in mind that in Marquette's last 5 wins, the opponent has been missing a starter. It doesn't put an asterisk next to those wins, and I think the result would have been the same in 4/5 of them but just something to keep in mind. Of course we were down a starter (though Kam seems to have lost his starting spot) in our last three losses as well, so it cuts both ways.
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My thoughts for the remaining BE games:
8-6 tourney lock
7-7 squarely on the bubble
6-8 on the outside looking in
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Also, not to be that guy, but keep in mind that in Marquette's last 5 wins, the opponent has been missing a starter. It doesn't put an asterisk next to those wins, and I think the result would have been the same in 4/5 of them but just something to keep in mind. Of course we were down a starter (though Kam seems to have lost his starting spot) in our last three losses as well, so it cuts both ways.
Yeah much more likely we win Uconn with Daryl or Creighton with Kam than any of the other 3 games even become down the stretch competitive in our wins.
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Also, not to be that guy, but keep in mind that in Marquette's last 5 wins, the opponent has been missing a starter. It doesn't put an asterisk next to those wins, and I think the result would have been the same in 4/5 of them but just something to keep in mind. Of course we were down a starter (though Kam seems to have lost his starting spot) in our last three losses as well, so it cuts both ways.
Kam "lost" his starting spot only after he got Covid; had he been healthy throughout, he very well could still be starting. We also were without Morsell one game. But sure, it helped that opponents were down a man, a very key guy in several of those games. And you weren't even talking about Cofi. Hey, we'll take it!
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Also, not to be that guy, but keep in mind that in Marquette's last 5 wins, the opponent has been missing a starter. It doesn't put an asterisk next to those wins, and I think the result would have been the same in 4/5 of them but just something to keep in mind. Of course we were down a starter (though Kam seems to have lost his starting spot) in our last three losses as well, so it cuts both ways.
It’s bears mentioning, but this year especially, it is the norm.
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Yeah much more likely we win Uconn with Daryl or Creighton with Kam than any of the other 3 games even become down the stretch competitive in our wins.
Good point.
Providence wasn't gonna win that game with Ernie D at the point! (But they might have won it with him and Bad News Barnes.)
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My thoughts for the remaining BE games:
8-6 tourney lock
7-7 squarely on the bubble
6-8 on the outside looking in
I pretty much agree. Might need 9-5 to be a lock, but 8-6 is probably in that bubble but likely in (9-11 seed) territory.
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Lunardi currently has us moved us above the last four byes/last four part and with 7 total teams "in" for the Big East.
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Also, for those who enjoy such things: Torvik has us on the "bubble team rooting guide" after last night. So if you're bored and want to know what games matter to Marquette outside of the one they play--it makes lazy Saturday viewing a little more fun.
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Also, for those who enjoy such things: Torvik has us on the "bubble team rooting guide" after last night. So if you're bored and want to know what games matter to Marquette outside of the one they play--it makes lazy Saturday viewing a little more fun.
You're gonna wear yourself out tracking the bubble that closely in mid-January, but I'm definitely a fan of the resource.
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I pretty much agree. Might need 9-5 to be a lock, but 8-6 is probably in that bubble but likely in (9-11 seed) territory.
With 7 games against the top 35 of Net, 2-5 in those games and 6-1 against Creighton and the bottom feeders is going to be solid.
At a minimum, that would be a home win against Seton Hall and a road win at Providence. It's also possible the two wins are better than that.
Go 3-4 against the top 35, and Marquette has a bigger margin of error in the other 7 games.
IMO, a 9 seed is in comfortably. That's usually 10 teams between you and the cutline. 8-6 would probably be enough for a 9 or 10 seed. 7-7 has Marquette in the 12 teams competing for the last 6 spots.
The difference between an 11 seed, avoiding Dayton, and a 2 seed in the NIT is usually very small.
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You're gonna wear yourself out tracking the bubble that closely in mid-January, but I'm definitely a fan of the resource.
Oh, I know it's way too early for that. But it does make it fun to have a rooting interest in the random game on espn2. That's really what I glean from it until mid to late february.
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I feel like 8-6 finish for 11-9 in conference is comfortably in.
That said, isn’t it highly unlikely we even make up the SJU game?
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January 11,2022 Team Sheets. Marquette is 41
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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I feel like 8-6 finish for 11-9 in conference is comfortably in.
That said, isn’t it highly unlikely we even make up the SJU game?
In that case, 7-6 might be enough as long as MU gets two top 35 wins.
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I feel like 8-6 finish for 11-9 in conference is comfortably in.
That said, isn’t it highly unlikely we even make up the SJU game?
Prior league performance suggests you're correct. 11 wins we should be solidly in, and typically, .500 teams need to win a BET tournament game.
Prior to 2021 (and going back to the split) only one Big East team with a league record above .500 failed to make the NCAA tournament (St. Johns in 2014).
In 2021, St. Johns and Seton Hall both finished 10-9 and failed to earn a bid--hard to know the impact of the missing league game, but one thing to note is the overall number of missed games overall probably impacted results. Seton Hall was only 14-13 (3-3 non-conference, 1-1 in the BET) and St. Johns was 16-10 overall (5-1 non-conference, 0-1 BET). The two teams faced each other head to head in the BET, and Seton Hall came away with the win (before losing in the next round to Georgetown). Might have been interesting to know what would have happened had St. Johns won the BET opener, as I don't think the committee was going to seed Seton Hall under any circumstance, but may have given St. Johns a closer look had they won.
Prior to 2021, 4 of 10 teams that finished .500 made the tournament. There were no .500 finishers in 2021
Five of six that missed the tournament lost their opening round BET game, and 3 of the 4 that made it won their opener. The lesson here is that if we head into the BET with a .500 record, we better win the opening round game if we hope to receive a bid.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 12, 2022
• After beating DePaul 87-76 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 17-14 (9-11 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are up to 83%, an increase of 5% since yesterday.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #51 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sat, Jan 15 vs. #20 Seton Hall. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 42% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 83% Get Automatic NCAA Bid 3% Projected Seed(if Selected) 10
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In that case, 7-6 might be enough as long as MU gets two top 35 wins.
FWIW, and it’s probably not much, Torvik projects MU as a 9 seed if they finish 7-6.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 12, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
16 16 UConn
20 18 Xavier
26 26 Seton Hall
33 33 Providence
43 41 Marquette
63 64 Creighton
108 107 St. John's
111 109 DePaul
142 141 Butler
182 189 Georgetown
1/12 Team Sheets . Marquette is 43
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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This upcoming stretch is just brutal. Has to be one of the toughest stretches any team faces this season. Currently
Q1
Q1-A
Q1
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
If we win 2 it's fantastic.
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This upcoming stretch is just brutal. Has to be one of the toughest stretches any team faces this season. Currently
Q1
Q1-A
Q1
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
If we win 2 it's fantastic.
I don’t think falling to 5-9 and basically requiring near perfection down the stretch would be fantastic. Gotta get at least 3. Starting with a win tomorrow is quite imperative.
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I don’t think falling to 5-9 and basically requiring near perfection down the stretch would be fantastic. Gotta get at least 3. Starting with a win tomorrow is quite imperative.
Agreed and this team is fully capable of doing that. I don’t see them crumbling under the pressure. Too many good components playing as a unit.
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This upcoming stretch is just brutal. Has to be one of the toughest stretches any team faces this season. Currently
Q1
Q1-A
Q1
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
If we win 2 it's fantastic.
Hall is gonna have to work back to a Q1 assuming we beat them.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of January 13,2021
New Old
7 7 Villanova
16 16 UConn
18 20 Xavier
27 26 Seton Hall
34 33 Providence
44 43 Marquette
63 63 Creighton
97 111 DePaul
100 108 St. John's
132 142 Butler
202 182 Georgetown
January 13 Team Sheets . Marquette is 44
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Bonnies are going to jump into Q2 after last night. Their 20-point win over VCU moved them up 8 in kenpom, but kenpom saw it as 70 beating 72. In the NET it was 110 beating 50, which will lead to a much bigger metric swing.
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Bonnies win, Illinois win, K-State wins, WVU looks to be hanging tough, Ole Miss with a great opportunity tonight. Lots of stuff breaking our way.
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Bonnies win, Illinois win, K-State wins, WVU looks to be hanging tough, Ole Miss with a great opportunity tonight. Lots of stuff breaking our way.
The Bonnies and Illinois wins kept us at 44.
Our win today and hopefully some results along with Kstates win should move the needle more
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I have us in 60's after the home cooking by the refs today. This is an unfair W and should be taken off the board.
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So Aiken running over Mitchell was a fair call. Aiken fouled Elliott before the shot, and Lewis was not fouled on his drive. They even out, today MU got the call for a change.
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I have us in 60's after the home cooking by the refs today. This is an unfair W and should be taken off the board.
This is a ludicrous take.
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This is a ludicrous take.
He’s being sarcastic.
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This is a ludicrous take.
It is just another of several posts in a row mocking fluffy. Don't take it seriously.
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OK thanks. Must have originated in another thread I haven't seen.
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OK thanks. Must have originated in another thread I haven't seen.
Pick just about any thread other than this one right now.
You'll see the same discussion taking place
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Wait... Greg was fouled?
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Big East NET rankings as of games of Friday January 14, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
16 16 UConn
18 18 Xavier
27 27 Seton Hall
33 34 Providence
44 44 Marquette
59 63 Creighton
97 97 DePaul
102 100 St. John's
132 132 Butler
199 202 Georgetown
January 14 Team Sheets. Marquette is 44
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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The Bonnies and Illinois wins kept us at 44.
Our win today and hopefully some results along with Kstates win should move the needle more
Not sure our win will move us much. I think a 1 point win was close to the expectation. I think it’ll keep us right around 44.
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This one won’t move the needle much in the positive, maybe 4-5 spots.
More importantly it gives Marquette another solid conference win, possibly a Q1 come seasons end.
It also doesn’t move the needle to the negative, which a 5pt loss or more would have.
I’d guess MU moves 40 +- 1 spot
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Yup. Real nice win for the resume.
Also, shows how much MU improved over the last few weeks that a win like this doesn’t move the needle much for the computers.
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it will help us from moving down too much when we inevitably lose big to Nova on Josh Harts jersey retirement night.
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Proud member of the “Cult of Low Expectations?”
This upcoming stretch is just brutal. Has to be one of the toughest stretches any team faces this season. Currently
Q1
Q1-A
Q1
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
Q1-A
If we win 2 it's fantastic.
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Proud member of the “Cult of Low Expectations?”
Nah, the COLE wouldn't have us win any.
With the win today we should be in if we take care of business. But the margin is thin.
Win one of these bect 6 and I fully expect us to be dancing. Win more than 1 and I'm happy to revise expectations upward.
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Our metrics won't move, but adding a Q1 win does significantly improve our resume. We now have 3 Q1 wins and are 5-6 against the first two quadrants. That's better than the vast majority of teams in the bubble discussion.
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Ole Miss had a 9 point second half lead and it was a 4 point game with 3 minutes left, but Auburn owned the last 3 minutes and pulled away to win by 9. Won't hurt our metrics much as that's about what Auburn was expected to win by.
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Up to 39 in the NET following the win over SHU.
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Up to 39 in the NET following the win over SHU.
Just saw that is awesome!!
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Up to 39 in the NET following the win over SHU.
Very nice. Resume is looking good relative to a lot of the teams too. Let's have a successful middle 6 games and make the final 7 about seeding!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 15,2022
New Old
6 7 Villanova
15 16 UConn
17 18 Xavier
30 27 Seton Hall
33 33 Providence
39 44 Marquette
56 59 Creighton
98 97 DePaul
99 102 St. John's
131 132 Butler
200 199 Georgetown
January 15th Team Sheets. Marquette is 39
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Up to 39 .. awesome
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Any other conference have a half-dozen teams in the top 40?
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Any other conference have a half-dozen teams in the top 40?
Just the Big 10 and 12 with 7 and 6 respectively
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TeamRankings Logo
Marquette Logo Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 16, 2022
• After beating Seton Hall 73-72 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 18-13 (10-10 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are up to 92%, an increase of 9% since yesterday.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #51 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Jan 19 at #10 Villanova. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 13% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 92% Get Automatic NCAA Bid 3% Projected Seed
(if Selected) 10
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Just the Big 10 and 12 with 7 and 6 respectively
Thanks TAMU.
Next game: Wed, Jan 19 at #10 Villanova. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 13% chance to win.
(https://pics.me.me/thumb_so-youre-telling-me-theresa-chance-quickmeme-com-dumb-and-dumber-50286072.png)
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TeamRankings Logo
Marquette Logo Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 16, 2022
• After beating Seton Hall 73-72 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 18-13 (10-10 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are up to 92%, an increase of 9% since yesterday.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #51 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Jan 19 at #10 Villanova. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 13% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 92% Get Automatic NCAA Bid 3% Projected Seed
(if Selected) 10
That’s better than ESPNs BPi projection. That gives us a 5% chance
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That’s better than ESPNs BPi projection. That gives us a 5% chance
I think its 92% if it ended today. Our odds are close to 50%
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 16,2022
New Old
3 6 Villanova
15 15 UConn
16 17 Xavier
30 30 Seton Hall
33 33 Providence
41 39 Marquette
55 56 Creighton
97 99 St. John's
98 98 DePaul
146 131 Butler
211 200 Georgetown
January 16 Team Sheet . Marquette is 41
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Georgetown is 211 in the Net?! Goodness. Approaching Pitt-esque depths on their fall, aren't they?
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Big East Poll Rankings January 17,2022
AP
11. Nova
20. X
21. Cooley & Company
25. U-Conn
Coaches
11. Nova
20. X
21. Cooley & Company
25. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
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Georgetown is 211 in the Net?! Goodness. Approaching Pitt-esque depths on their fall, aren't they?
Really feel bad for them. Wonder if PE even makes the end of the season?
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If we get clocked by Nova this could be an ugly couple days for our NET based on todays results
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If we get clocked by Nova this could be an ugly couple days for our NET based on todays results
Kstate stepped up. nice
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Kstate stepped up. nice
Wisconsin will get a solid road win as well. Won’t help our metrics but won’t hurt them either.
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Kstate stepped up. nice
They are now close to a Q1 win.
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They are now close to a Q1 win.
They entered today 1 spot off from Q1
They definitely will be one tomorrow
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At one point tonight Carr scored 17 of 19 points for Texas in the second half, yet they weren’t smart enough to keep giving him the ball. K State forced him into a tough shot at the buzzer, he finally missed one and the Wildcats escaped with a road upset. This K State team is healthy for the first time all year and could be ready to make some noise in the conference. They were definitely the more poised team down the stretch in this one. It’s a nice result for MU. For such a demanding fan base, the arena was half empty and the crowd seemed mostly apathetic throughout. I love when UT loses!
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At one point tonight Carr scored 17 of 19 points for Texas in the second half, yet they weren’t smart enough to keep giving him the ball. K State forced him into a tough shot at the buzzer, he finally missed one and the Wildcats escaped with a road upset. This K State team is healthy for the first time all year and could be ready to make some noise in the conference. They were definitely the more poised team down the stretch in this one. It’s a nice result for MU. For such a demanding fan base, the arena was half empty and the crowd seemed mostly apathetic throughout. I love when UT loses!
Letting Carr play hero ball results in L's.
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Letting Carr play hero ball results in L's.
Beard = Wojo?
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We jumped to 39 thanks to Kstate
Bonnie’s dropped from Q2 tho so need them to get back
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18,2022
New Old
3 3 Villanova
15 16 Xavier
16 15 UConn
29 29 Seton Hall
32 33 Providence
39 40 Marquette
59 56 Creighton
98 97 St. John's
100 99 DePaul
142 141 Butler
212 212 Georgetown
January 18 Team Sheet . Marquette is 39
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18,2022
New Old
3 3 Villanova
15 16 Xavier
16 15 UConn
29 29 Seton Hall
32 33 Providence
39 40 Marquette
59 56 Creighton
98 97 St. John's
100 99 DePaul
142 141 Butler
212 212 Georgetown
January 18 Team Sheet . Marquette is 39
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
Really expected us to drop after our opponents, sans K State, did not do well yesterday.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18,2022
New Old
3 3 Villanova
15 16 Xavier
16 15 UConn
29 29 Seton Hall
32 33 Providence
39 40 Marquette
59 56 Creighton
98 97 St. John's
100 99 DePaul
142 141 Butler
212 212 Georgetown
January 18 Team Sheet . Marquette is 39
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
Georgetown is such an embarrassment
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Really expected us to drop after our opponents, sans K State, did not do well yesterday.
I could be wrong (again), but with all the games that have been played, its hard now to move the needle much based on opponents results. A team only really seem to move much if they win big, or lose big compared to expected results (see North Carolina last night).
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I could be wrong (again), but with all the games that have been played, its hard now to move the needle much based on opponents results. A team only really seem to move much if they win big, or lose big compared to expected results (see North Carolina last night).
How opponents perform still matters but you are largely correct. The deeper we get into the season, the less each individual game (including the ones we play) will move the needle.
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Georgetown is such an embarrassment
PE needs to go, when you're a Q4 loss for teams playing you on the road you are now only a detriment to the conference.
Some BE team this year (hopefully not us) will lose a game @GT and it will keep them out of the tourney.
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PE needs to go, when you're a Q4 loss for teams playing you on the road you are now only a detriment to the conference.
Some BE team this year (hopefully not us) will lose a game @GT and it will keep them out of the tourney.
Well we can’t lose at Gtown.
We could lose to them at home though and that would hurt even worse
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PE needs to go, when you're a Q4 loss for teams playing you on the road you are now only a detriment to the conference.
Some BE team this year (hopefully not us) will lose a game @GT and it will keep them out of the tourney.
I think this is pretty unlikely. We already won at Georgetown, so it won't be us. The only other team that doesn't have enough resume heft that a road GT loss might hurt their case is Creighton, so I'd keep an eye on those February 12th/14th back to back tilts.
Unless, of course, you mean the Hoyas themselves. They've lost 4 games @GT (Dartmouth, TCU, Marquette, Butler) and might have a bubble case had those all gone the other way. Especially with home games against 'Nova, UConn, and Seton Hall among others, coming up.
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Unless, of course, you mean the Hoyas themselves. They've lost 4 games @GT (Dartmouth, TCU, Marquette, Butler) and might have a bubble case had those all gone the other way. Especially with home games against 'Nova, UConn, and Seton Hall among others, coming up.
Brew you must be pretty deep into those team sheets…
I doubt he meant the Hoyas themselves, they are putrid 😂
I guess everyone has a bubble case until proven otherwise
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Brew you must be pretty deep into those team sheets…
I doubt he meant the Hoyas themselves, they are putrid 😂
I guess everyone has a bubble case until proven otherwise
Very tongue in cheek, but if the Hoyas had won those 4 home losses and finished the season unbeaten at home, they would probably be a tourney team. So the only team that is likely to actually be left out for losing at Georgetown is Georgetown themselves ;)
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Right, sorry, I meant hope we don't lose st home (but thats been a Q4 game for a while).
I was thinking something more like Creighton - or Providence or UCONN if they happen to hit a broader skid. A Q4 loss is ugly.
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Can’t wait to see the update.
Metrics tend to looove road wins.
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Up to 39 on KenPom from 50
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Up to 39 on KenPom from 50
Cracked the top 40 in defense, too
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Cracked the top 40 in defense, too
Even Torvik has MU top 40 (#40) defense now. Although only 54 overall thus far.
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Up to 39 on KenPom from 50
What's our NET after tonight?
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Even Torvik has MU top 40 (#40) defense now. Although only 54 overall thus far.
Torvik have the last seven seasons averaged in? WTF? 54?
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Surging Teams
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Surging Teams
And this was BEFORE the VU win. Pretty much the hottest team in the country right now
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And this was BEFORE the VU win. Pretty much the hottest team in the country right now
(https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-24-2020/cv8XFf.gif)
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This team is so hot that I am going to skip watching Tom Brady on Sunday and get my ass down to the FF for the game. For the record, I don't love Brady quite as much as I love the Al era of MU ball, but he is much watch TV for me. MU basketball is back to must attend games status. The exciting part, this is program is just starting to be put back together. IMO, every MU fan should get their ass to the FF and cheer on this team and their HC, Shaka.
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Up to 34.
I personally figured about 33 so can't be disappointed.
Was really hoping for low 30s though.
Hell of a rise in 5 games!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 19,2022
New Old
6 3 Villanova
15 15 Xavier
16 16 UConn
29 29 Seton Hall
32 32 Providence
34 39 Marquette
50 59 Creighton
99 100 DePaul
104 98 St. John's
147 142 Butler
216 212 Georgetown
January 19 Team Sheets. Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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This team is so hot that I am going to skip watching Tom Brady on Sunday and get my ass down to the FF for the game. For the record, I don't love Brady quite as much as I love the Al era of MU ball, but he is much watch TV for me. MU basketball is back to must attend games status. The exciting part, this is program is just starting to be put back together. IMO, every MU fan should get their ass to the FF and cheer on this team and their HC, Shaka.
FF better be standing room only Sunday
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Creighton moves up 9 for beating SJU and we move up 5 for beating nova on the road - oh well - win Saturday and gotta think we’ll be in the polls
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Creighton moves up 9 for beating SJU and we move up 5 for beating nova on the road - oh well - win Saturday and gotta think we’ll be in the polls
Little bit easier to jump up further back id imagine.
And as we saw with our Providence and Gtown wins. Winning by a load of points is very beneficial.
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Creighton moves up 9 for beating SJU and we move up 5 for beating nova on the road - oh well - win Saturday and gotta think we’ll be in the polls
Bell curve. Keep in mind that NET is a formula to kicks out a number, not a ranking. Those numbers are then ranked 1-358. The distance between each number is not equal. The closer you get to the top and the bottom, the harder it is to move up. The distance between #1 and #2 in NET is a lot greater than the distance between #50 and #51.
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What a colossally huge win last night. 4-7 finish (assuming @SJU never made up) might be good enough to get in with a win like that. Anything better and you're for sure in with in a win like that. Heck of a run for Shaka and the boys since the heartbreaker vs. Creighton!
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Little bit easier to jump up further back id imagine.
And as we saw with our Providence and Gtown wins. Winning by a load of points is very beneficial.
Agree. The hill gets steeper the lower the NET. Harder to pass teams that have done much too and easier to pass teams that have not done as much imagine.
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January 1st- MU had a NET of 83
January 20th- MU has a NET of 34
Seems impossible.
What a start to 2022!!!
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I'm puzzled by this:
12-6 Record
1-3 Road
3-2 Neutral
8-1 Home
5-5 Quad 1
2-0 Quad 2
5-1 Quad 3
0-0 Quad 4
21 Ranking
13-6 Record
3-2 Road
2-1 Neutral
8-3 Home
5-4 Quad 1
1-2 Quad 2
3-0 Quad 3
4-0 Quad 4
34 Ranking
I'm not seeing how Alabama is a full 13 NET spots higher. Is it because they don't have any Quad 4 games?
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I'm puzzled by this:
12-6 Record
1-3 Road
3-2 Neutral
8-1 Home
5-5 Quad 1
2-0 Quad 2
5-1 Quad 3
0-0 Quad 4
21 Ranking
13-6 Record
3-2 Road
2-1 Neutral
8-3 Home
5-4 Quad 1
1-2 Quad 2
3-0 Quad 3
4-0 Quad 4
34 Ranking
I'm not seeing how Alabama is a full 13 NET spots higher. Is it because they don't have any Quad 4 games?
I think beating Gonzaga by 9 helps your NET ranking. half of the net is predictive and based on efficiency ratings.
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I'm puzzled by this:
12-6 Record
1-3 Road
3-2 Neutral
8-1 Home
5-5 Quad 1
2-0 Quad 2
5-1 Quad 3
0-0 Quad 4
21 Ranking
13-6 Record
3-2 Road
2-1 Neutral
8-3 Home
5-4 Quad 1
1-2 Quad 2
3-0 Quad 3
4-0 Quad 4
34 Ranking
I'm not seeing how Alabama is a full 13 NET spots higher. Is it because they don't have any Quad 4 games?
In Kenpom anyway, they haven't played any teams worse than 166. They've played 166, 137, 123, and 106. Everyone else top 100.
We've played 304, 272, 270, and 224.
They've played the hardest schedule in the country and we are 5th hardest.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 20, 2022
• After beating Villanova 57-54 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (11-9 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are up to 98%, an increase of 7% since yesterday.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #46 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sun, Jan 23 vs. #19 Xavier. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 45% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 98%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 4%
Projected Seed (if Selected) 8
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7 top 50 teams for the BE is not too shabby
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I'm puzzled by this:
12-6 Record
1-3 Road
3-2 Neutral
8-1 Home
5-5 Quad 1
2-0 Quad 2
5-1 Quad 3
0-0 Quad 4
21 Ranking
13-6 Record
3-2 Road
2-1 Neutral
8-3 Home
5-4 Quad 1
1-2 Quad 2
3-0 Quad 3
4-0 Quad 4
34 Ranking
I'm not seeing how Alabama is a full 13 NET spots higher. Is it because they don't have any Quad 4 games?
It's not the lack of Q4 games, it's Marquette's relatively close margins in Q4 games. In addition, look at the margins of defeat. 5 of Alabama's 6 defeats are by 6 or fewer points, whereas every one of ours is by 6 or more, and half are by double digits (compared to only 1 for 'Bama). They also have better wins than we do. All of their Q1 wins are in Q1A, including 4 wins over top-13 opponents.
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Makes sense. Thanks for explanations.
This may be my Wojo-era experience talking, but 98% chance of making the NCAAT seems fantastical. Still have PTSD from the losing stretches that seemed to end every season. On the bright side, our schedule *should* get easier closer to the end. Nothing guaranteed until we hear our name on Selection Sunday. Just keep winning your next game.
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Makes sense. Thanks for explanations.
This may be my Wojo-era experience talking, but 98% chance of making the NCAAT seems fantastical. Still have PTSD from the losing stretches that seemed to end every season. On the bright side, our schedule *should* get easier closer to the end. Nothing guaranteed until we hear our name on Selection Sunday. Just keep winning your next game.
98% is fantastical. If we go 18-13 we're probably in, 19-12 or 19-13 and we're definitely in, but that does require 5-6 in our last 11. It feels likely, but not 98% likely.
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Makes sense. Thanks for explanations.
This may be my Wojo-era experience talking, but 98% chance of making the NCAAT seems fantastical. Still have PTSD from the losing stretches that seemed to end every season. On the bright side, our schedule *should* get easier closer to the end. Nothing guaranteed until we hear our name on Selection Sunday. Just keep winning your next game.
I wonder how many times under Wojo were we at a 98% of making the tournament in January...go on to lose the large majority of the remaining games...miss the tournament. If there was one coach who could make that happen it was Wojo.
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I wonder how many times under Wojo were we at a 98% of making the tournament in January...go on to lose the large majority of the remaining games...miss the tournament. If there was one coach who could make that happen it was Wojo.
While we had those late season droughts, the number of times is actually zero. We can’t know about 19-20 but the NET rank made MU a virtual cinch to make the tourney.
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I wonder how many times under Wojo were we at a 98% of making the tournament in January...go on to lose the large majority of the remaining games...miss the tournament. If there was one coach who could make that happen it was Wojo.
None. Seeding, sure.
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Big East NET rankings as of Games of Janauary 20, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
15 16 UConn
16 15 Xavier
30 29 Seton Hall
33 34 Marquette
34 32 Providence
52 50 Creighton
99 99 DePaul
103 104 St. John's
156 147 Butler
208 216 Georgetown
January 20 Team Sheets . Marquette is 33
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 21, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
15 15 UConn
16 16 Xavier
30 30 Seton Hall
33 33 Marquette
34 34 Providence
51 52 Creighton
100 99 DePaul
104 103 St. John's
155 156 Butler
209 208 Georgetown
January 21 Team Sheets . Marquette is 33
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Kansas St up 8 on Kansas with 15 minutes left
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Kansas St up 8 on Kansas with 15 minutes left
Nigel Pack with 33. Kinda glad we didn't see that dude six weeks ago.
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8-0 run wins it for Kansas. 78-75
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 22, 2021
New Old
6 6 Villanova
15 15 UConn
17 16 Xavier
30 30 Seton Hall
36 33 Marquette
38 34 Providence
49 51 Creighton
103 100 DePaul
108 104 St. John's
158 155 Butler
202 209 Georgetown
January 22 Team Sheets . Marquette is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Won by 11. Does that mean we Maxed our our NET capabilities?
-
Won by 11. Does that mean we Maxed our our NET capabilities?
Dunno if it's why, but I loved the intensity of the final defensive play to keep it at 11
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Want to bump this back to the top. Since we won by 11 did we max our our NET
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Want to bump this back to the top. Since we won by 11 did we max our our NET
One portion of the algorithm. However, the efficiency metric doesn’t have a cap.
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Want to bump this back to the top. Since we won by 11 did we max our our NET
I've mentioned this before, but it seems a lot are still unaware. The NCAA removed scoring margin from the NET. So scoring margin doesn't matter, besides how it affects efficiency.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained)
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Want to bump this back to the top. Since we won by 11 did we max our our NET
There's no such thing as maxing out our NET. You can always be more efficient which improves your NET. There is a "bonus" in NET for scoring margin that caps at 10, so we maxed that out.
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Just win, baby
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There's no such thing as maxing out our NET. You can always be more efficient which improves your NET. There is a "bonus" in NET for scoring margin that caps at 10, so we maxed that out.
Thanks for this clarification!!!
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I've mentioned this before, but it seems a lot are still unaware. The NCAA removed scoring margin from the NET. So scoring margin doesn't matter, besides how it affects efficiency.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained)
Thanks! I appreciate the links. I had a lot of questions about NET and this helps!
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I've mentioned this before, but it seems a lot are still unaware. The NCAA removed scoring margin from the NET. So scoring margin doesn't matter, besides how it affects efficiency.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained)
And just 15 minutes later ...
There's no such thing as maxing out our NET. You can always be more efficient which improves your NET. There is a "bonus" in NET for scoring margin that caps at 10, so we maxed that out.
Okay, guys, which is it?
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And just 15 minutes later ...
Okay, guys, which is it?
I'm a bit torn. I trust my links, but TAMU usually knows his crap in this arena.
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Also, strange aside. But last season we had the most Q1 wins (5) out of all teams who didn't make the tournament.
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Unranked. Receiving votes. Doubt we go from 0 votes to ranked.
But they really do deserve to be ranked
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Unranked. Receiving votes. Doubt we go from 0 votes to ranked.
But they really do deserve to be ranked
I don't know....with all of the other teams that lost and two more wins over ranked teams, including a road win at Nova, I think they get in.
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Unranked. Receiving votes. Doubt we go from 0 votes to ranked.
But they really do deserve to be ranked
We will 100% be ranked
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We will 100% be ranked
Yep - 6 game win streak and 2 straight against ranked opponents. Maybe 3 ? Can’t remember if SHU was ranked
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Yep - 6 game win streak and 2 straight against ranked opponents. Maybe 3 ? Can’t remember if SHU was ranked
Yup at the time they were
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We just beat 3 top-20 teams. If we are not ranked, it is clearly a vast right-wing conspiracy.
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Ranked or not ranked, this is top twenty team at the moment. There is not a BE team that is inking in a win against this team. While being ranked tomorrow is going to taste great, staying there is the goal.
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I'm a bit torn. I trust my links, but TAMU usually knows his crap in this arena.
Nope it appears I'm wrong. I missed that change, thanks for the links!
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We just beat 3 top-20 teams. If we are not ranked, it is clearly a vast right-wing conspiracy.
I will be completely stunned if we are not ranked.
The Nova win put us on every voter's radar. Then to follow up with another win over a ranked team ... to borrow a phrase ...
#donedeal
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I will be completely stunned if we are not ranked.
The Nova win put us on every voter's radar. Then to follow up with another win over a ranked team ... to borrow a phrase ...
#donedeal
I agree. Some of it is just who is hot at the time. It’s less about resumes and more about who is winning. I think we’ve turned enough heads to make the leap this week.
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We will 100% be ranked
I posted in the wrong thread. Thought I was in the what are we ranked thread. I’d love to be wrong. I thought we deserved votes last week and definitely deserve to be ranked this week. I just think we’ll miss by a few points.
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Also, strange aside. But last season we had the most Q1 wins (5) out of all teams who didn't make the tournament.
I wish you would’ve just let us be forgetful of that little nugget
I like the win and the 11 pt margin here, along with the metrics rise defensively.
I’ll go with a guess of a rise from 36 to 29 in tomorrows NET!
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I wish you would’ve just let us be forgetful of that little nugget
I like the win and the 11 pt margin here, along with the metrics rise defensively.
I’ll go with a guess of a rise from 36 to 29 in tomorrows NET!
Guess that's good we got 6 so far with the Providence one possibly moving into Q1
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I posted in the wrong thread. Thought I was in the what are we ranked thread. I’d love to be wrong. I thought we deserved votes last week and definitely deserve to be ranked this week. I just think we’ll miss by a few points.
Someone here will.surely give you mega odds if you wanted to.wager on that.
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Up to 32
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Guess that's good we got 6 so far with the Providence one possibly moving into Q1
Only chance Prov moves to Q1 is if they sweep this week........which includes our game on Saturday. THey are late 30s right now.
SHU also might need to beat us to keep their precarious spot as well
Obviously beat both SHU and Prov and we gain 2 Q1 wins for them this week so just win and we will keep a good total.
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Looks like we have played the most Q1 games in the country. Also, UNC is 0-6 in Q1 games. Another stat, we have moved into the Top 10 in Assists per game.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 23, 2021
New Old
6 6 Villanova
15 15 UConn
19 17 Xavier
29 30 Seton Hall
32 36 Marquette
39 38 Providence
52 49 Creighton
103 103 DePaul
109 108 St. John's
150 158 Butler
201 202 Georgetown
January 23 Team Sheets . Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Another stat, we have moved into the Top 10 in Assists per game.
MU is #2 in assist rate. Have been near top for a long while due to style of play. TKo is #20 individually, just wish he'd get his TO rate down.
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We just beat 3 top-20 teams. If we are not ranked, it is clearly a vast right write-wing conspiracy.
FIFY
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Big East Poll Rankings as of January 24,2022
AP
14. Nova
17. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
21. X
22. MU
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
12. Nova
17. Cooley & Company
19. U-Conn
23. X
Others Receiving Votes
MU, The Hall
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Damn coaches still ain’t paying attention
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Damn coaches still ain’t paying attention
Coaches poll usually lags the AP.
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Damn assistant coaches still ain’t paying attention
FIFY
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Damn coaches video coordinators still ain’t paying attention
FIFY
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FIFY
;D
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Another stat, we have moved into the Top 10 in Assists per game.
Too bad per stats no Matta. However, we are #2 in assist rate. Too bad it’s more of a style metric & doesn’t necessarily indicate efficiency.
#1 in the nation is Lafayette, who has an awful offense.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 24, 2022
• After beating Xavier 75-64 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (12-8 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are currently 99%.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #42 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Jan 26 at #21 Seton Hall. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 26% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 99%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 5%
Projected Seed(if Selected) 7
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of January 24, 2002
New Old
6 6 Villanova
15 15 UConn
19 19 Xavier
32 32 Marquette
36 29 Seton Hall
39 39 Providence
51 52 Creighton
91 109 St. John's
104 103 DePaul
156 150 Butler
201 201 Georgetown
January 24 Team Sheet . Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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From Bleacher Report:
West Region (San Francisco)
Portland, Oregon
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16
Weber State
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Iowa
Portland, Oregon
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Iona
Greenville, South Carolina
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Miami
Indianapolis, Indiana
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Liberty
No. 7 West Virginia vs. No. 10 San Diego State
On the Rise: Marquette Golden Eagles (Up Four Seed Lines)
14-6, NET: 32, RES: 26.0, QUAL: 44.3
Have a week, Marquette.
Not only did the Golden Eagles become the first team to win at Villanova since February 2020, but they came back home a few days later and picked up an 11-point victory over then-AP No. 20 Xavier. They also beat Seton Hall the previous weekend and started their current six-game winning streak with a quality victory over Providence.
Marquette now has six Quadrant 1 wins, which is more than any team in the country not named Baylor. And the schedule is loaded with more opportunities in the immediate future. The Golden Eagles' next four games are: at Seton Hall, at Providence, vs. Villanova, at Connecticut. But at this point, they could go 0-4 in those games and still be in good shape to dance.
https://apple.news/APKqXiLt4S3yV09x9QATiDA
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Normally, I'd want MU to play in Greenville so I could go ... but I actually will be in the PNW during the start of March Madness, so I'd love it if they went to Portland!
Otherwise, I'm hoping for Indy. I won't be able to make it but I know that would be convenient for a lot of MU fans, and we can use all the fans we can get. Plus, Indy always does a great job with hoops tourneys.
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From Bleacher Report:
West Region (San Francisco)
Portland, Oregon
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16
Weber State
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Iowa
Portland, Oregon
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Iona
A 5 vs 12 matchup against Pitino?
F--k that.
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I'd love Portland opening weekend. My daughter lives there and would make for a great weekend with her.
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Let's just call it Portland. Easy drive for me, and what else matters??
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A 5 vs 12 matchup against Pitino?
F--k that.
My first thought too
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What ... you guys would feel bad about Pitino losing to Marquette in his final game at Iona?
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Big East NET rankings as of games of Janauary 25, 2022
New Old
5 6 Villanova
17 15 UConn
18 19 Xavier
31 32 Marquette
36 36 Seton Hall
41 39 Providence
50 51 Creighton
92 91 St. John's
109 104 DePaul
155 156 Butler
203 201 Georgetown
January 25 Team Sheets. Marquette is 31
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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I know this comment will make those of you who follow this stuff want to pull your hair out but Providence seems to be getting screwed.
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I know this comment will make those of you who follow this stuff want to pull your hair out but Providence seems to be getting screwed.
How so?
I don't mean to be snarky, but their resume has all the hallmarks of a sham. Close buy game wins over Fairfield, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Central Connecticut (15 is bad when you're 25 point favorites). Their best wins are all by 2 possessions or fewer (Bucky, Northwestern, Texas Tech, UConn, SHU). Their 6-1 league record is mostly based on 4 wins over the league's bottom 4 teams. And their losses are horrendous blowouts (18 is really bad when you're a 1 point favorite).
Their resume compares favorably with 2018 Xavier, 2019 Marquette, and other teams that tend to get overseeded and lose early in March when their W/L results don't match their actual per possession production. Consider this, in 9 games against top-100 kenpom opposition, Providence is 7-2. In those same 7 games, they have a scoring differential of MINUS SEVEN!!! That is the definition of a team that isn't as good as their record shows.
Providence isn't getting screwed, they just aren't 16-2 good.
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Has anyone noticed that every time someone brings up our UofI win people say "yeah but there was no Kofi" but I haven't seen the same with Providence's win over Bucky & Johnny Davis
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Has anyone noticed that every time someone brings up our UofI win people say "yeah but there was no Kofi" but I haven't seen the same with Providence's win over Bucky & Johnny Davis
My BADger friends never shut up about that. They don't even count it as a loss.
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My BADger friends never shut up about that. They don't even count it as a loss.
MSU has erased the L from their record because they lost to Illinois without Kofi playing.
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Has anyone noticed that every time someone brings up our UofI win people say "yeah but there was no Kofi" but I haven't seen the same with Providence's win over Bucky & Johnny Davis
Listen to Jeff Goodman (well...maybe not, but he talks about it a lot). They beat Bucky without Johnny Davis, UConn without Adama Sanogo, and Seton Hall without Obiagu. In terms of resume luck, Providence has a horseshoe up their ass.
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Listen to Jeff Goodman (well...maybe not, but he talks about it a lot). They beat Bucky without Johnny Davis, UConn without Adama Sanogo, and Seton Hall without Obiagu. In terms of resume luck, Providence has a horseshoe up their ass.
That was what we were talking about when they came to Milwaukee. They were lucky and winning tight games while the metrics didn't show a lot of confidence in the results. I do think they are very beatable at the Dunk not only because we match up withthem well, but due to the regression on record I expect to see. Nova, UConn, and X are going to be the teams we will compete with for top slot (or top 3 slots) in the Big East.
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I tend to believe The Provi is overrated but will withhold full judgment until after we crush them again on Saturday.
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Listen to Jeff Goodman (well...maybe not, but he talks about it a lot). They beat Bucky without Johnny Davis, UConn without Adama Sanogo, and Seton Hall without Obiagu. In terms of resume luck, Providence has a horseshoe up their ass.
I haven't done a deep dive on every team but I think it's just going to be more common in the COVID era. We beat ILL without Kofi, KSU without Pack, Georgetown without Carey, Providence without Reeves. We almost certainly lose the first two if those guys play, and almost certainly win the latter two regardless.
We also were missing Morsell against UCONN and Kam against Creighton, and either of them playing may have flipped those results. Except in incredibly extreme cases I'd bet the committee doesn't bother to look at which guys missed certain games.
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I haven't done a deep dive on every team but I think it's just going to be more common in the COVID era. We beat ILL without Kofi, KSU without Pack, Georgetown without Carey, Providence without Reeves. We almost certainly lose the first two if those guys play, and almost certainly win the latter two regardless.
We also were missing Morsell against UCONN and Kam against Creighton, and either of them playing may have flipped those results. Except in incredibly extreme cases I'd bet the committee doesn't bother to look at which guys missed certain games.
Committee will never hold it against the winning team. Like our win vs Illinois is considered the same regardless.
If a team loses a handful of games with a stud player out, they will consider that for that team though.
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:P
Listen to Jeff Goodman (well...maybe not, but he talks about it a lot). They beat Bucky without Johnny Davis, UConn without Adama Sanogo, and Seton Hall without Obiagu. In terms of resume luck, Providence has a horseshoe up their ass.
I will not listen to Goodman
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:P
I will not listen to Goodman
Why not? He could play the jazz clarinet like the cat's pajamas, daddy!
(https://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wmky/files/styles/large/public/201801/benny.jpg)
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ESPN BPI still has us outside the top 50. We did move from 57 with the win to 51.
SHU at 37.
Excellent formula
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ESPN BPI still has us outside the top 50. We did move from 57 with the win to 51.
SHU at 37.
Excellent formula
I don’t even look at BPI. Are all the ACC teams in the the top 20?
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I don’t even look at BPI. Are all the ACC teams in the the top 20?
5 ACC in front of us.
INcluding .500 Virginia Tech. Clemson. UNC who allows like 150 pts a game.
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Really tough to move up in the NET. We stay at 31
Not hard to fall though. SHU goes from 36 to 44. No chance of that home win ever being Q1 again.
WVU also just continues to lose and lose badly. No longer Q1 and unlikely they ever get back.
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5 ACC in front of us.
INcluding .500 Virginia Tech. Clemson. UNC who allows like 150 pts a game.
So ESPN and their formula are not to be taken remotely seriously.
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Really tough to move up in the NET. We stay at 31
Not hard to fall though. SHU goes from 36 to 44. No chance of that home win ever being Q1 again.
WVU also just continues to lose and lose badly. No longer Q1 and unlikely they ever get back.
Providence made a nice jump from 41 to 33. A little surprised we didn’t move up a couple spots.
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Oof yea really brutal night for our opponents.
Many of our key wins and losses aren’t aging too great…
- St Bonnies lost at George Mason by 9, they were favored. 11-5 now.
- WVU lost at home to Oklahoma by 10, they were favored. 13-6 now.
- Ole Miss as slight home dogs lost by 10 to Arkansas. 10-10 now.
- SIUe is 7-12 lost 4 straight
- New Hampshire is 8-7
- Northern Ill is 5-11
- Jackson St is 4-14
- K St is 10-9 with a recent blowout loss @ Baylor
Illinois, Wisconsin, and UCLA are holding their own and having good seasons.
It’s a very good thing Marquette has taken matters into its own hands, the best way to do things.
Keep that up and everything else won’t matta, but it would be nice for some of these other dudes to get they head outta their you know what
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Providence made a nice jump from 41 to 33. A little surprised we didn’t move up a couple spots.
Keep in mind that 31 is just our NET ranking, not the actual score. No one but the keepers of the NET secret sauce know what our NET score is. So we likely did move up, but there may have been a bigger gap between us and #30 so the ranking didn't change.
We were also likely impacted by:
Xavier losing to Providence (hurts our NET twice while only helping it once, will change after Saturday)
Creighton getting blown out by crappy Butler (will eventually even out once we play Butler twice)
New Hampshire only beating #354 Maine by 12 at home
St. Bonaventure getting beat by 9 by #100 George Mason
Ole Miss getting beat by 9 at home by Arkansas
West Virginia getting beat by double digits by Oklahoma at home
Basically, besides us winning (which is by far the most important thing) every other game went against us from an NET standpoint.
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I follow my eye test and if there are 15 teams better than us at the moment, I hope we get to face them down the road. This team can and will compete against anyone they will play the remainder of the year. I said in April, there was not a BE coach happy to see Shaka roll into MKE and they were right in not liking the hire. Pretty soon the rest of the country will see the Shaka system at work.
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I follow my eye test and if there are 15 teams better than us at the moment, I hope we get to face them down the road. This team can and will compete against anyone they will play the remainder of the year. I said in April, there was not a BE coach happy to see Shaka roll into MKE and they were right in not liking the hire. Pretty soon the rest of the country will see the Shaka system at work.
Can we play ND this year? We would blow their doors off!
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Oof yea really brutal night for our opponents.
Many of our key wins and losses aren’t aging too great…
- St Bonnies lost at George Mason by 9, they were favored. 11-5 now.
- WVU lost at home to Oklahoma by 10, they were favored. 13-6 now.
- Ole Miss as slight home dogs lost by 10 to Arkansas. 10-10 now.
- SIUe is 7-12 lost 4 straight
- New Hampshire is 8-7
- Northern Ill is 5-11
- Jackson St is 4-14
- K St is 10-9 with a recent blowout loss @ Baylor
Illinois, Wisconsin, and UCLA are holding their own and having good seasons.
It’s a very good thing Marquette has taken matters into its own hands, the best way to do things.
Keep that up and everything else won’t matta, but it would be nice for some of these other dudes to get they head outta their you know what
MU is taking care of its own business right now. Those records don't mean a think if MU continues to play well. Other than shading of seeding. It matters if MU is on the bubble.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 26,2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
17 17 UConn
21 18 Xavier
31 31 Marquette
33 41 Providence
44 36 Seton Hall
67 50 Creighton
91 92 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
134 155 Butler
202 203 Georgetown
January 26th Team Sheets. Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-power-rankings-kansas-in-top-five-ucla-back-in-top-10-providence-and-marquette-surging/
#9 in the power rankings! Let’s keep the party rolling!!
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We’re up to 17 in the RPI guys
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For 1 day at least, we are now a Q1 oppenent no matter where a team plays us
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 27,2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
17 17 UConn
21 21 Xavier
30 31 Marquette
34 33 Providence
44 44 Seton Hall
67 67 Creighton
92 91 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
133 134 Butler
203 202 Georgetown
January 27 Teams Sheets . Marquette is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Hey, top 30! just gave a lot of teams a q1 loss instead of q2 lol.
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TeamRankings Logo
Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 27, 2022
• After beating Seton Hall 73-63 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 21-10 (13-7 Big East).
• The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are currently 100%.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #39 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sat, Jan 29 at #49 Providence. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 43% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 6%
Projected Seed 6
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I follow my eye test and if there are 15 teams better than us at the moment, I hope we get to face them down the road. This team can and will compete against anyone they will play the remainder of the year. I said in April, there was not a BE coach happy to see Shaka roll into MKE and they were right in not liking the hire. Pretty soon the rest of the country will see the Shaka system at work.
I believe this is a March run type team with the WAY they are winning right now. Defensive clamps keep getting tighter, and the offense is evolving to the point where as teams scout to take a strength away we are countering & exploiting. If we see that type of evolution continue, there is almost no limit to this team's ceiling with the pieces it has playing in unison.
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I believe this is a March run type team with the WAY they are winning right now. Defensive clamps keep getting tighter, and the offense is evolving to the point where as teams scout to take a strength away we are countering & exploiting. If we see that type of evolution continue, there is almost no limit to this team's ceiling with the pieces it has playing in unison.
If nothing else we're definitely the team that people are going to be pissed to draw.
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I believe this is a March run type team with the WAY they are winning right now. Defensive clamps keep getting tighter, and the offense is evolving to the point where as teams scout to take a strength away we are countering & exploiting. If we see that type of evolution continue, there is almost no limit to this team's ceiling with the pieces it has playing in unison.
This is a great take. The diversity in who is getting assists, who is hitting the 3, who is driving is wrecking plans of other teams. And recently, Marquette has been eviscerating the zone (which feels insanely different). Everyone on this team can play Robin on a given night to JLew--and that's hard to plan for.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
17 17 UConn
21 21 Xavier
29 30 Marquette
31 34 Providence
43 44 Seton Hall
69 67 Creighton
91 92 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
133 133 Butler
201 203 Georgetown
January 29 Team Sheets. Marquette is 29
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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We lost another Q1 win with West Virginia's recent downturn. Not liking the chances that we get that one back. Win tomorrow and we are back up to 6. Bonnies also down to a Q3 loss again. Creighton is also trending towards a Q3 loss.
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Marquette remains at 29 in the NET
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 29,2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
16 17 UConn
19 21 Xavier
29 29 Marquette
31 31 Providence
41 43 Seton Hall
73 69 Creighton
91 91 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
131 133 Butler
199 201 Georgetown
January 30 Team Sheets. Marquette is 29
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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We lost another Q1 win with West Virginia's recent downturn. Not liking the chances that we get that one back. Win tomorrow and we are back up to 6. Bonnies also down to a Q3 loss again. Creighton is also trending towards a Q3 loss.
The number Q1 and Q2 wins maters less as/if our NET ranking keeps rising, right?
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The number Q1 and Q2 wins maters less as/if our NET ranking keeps rising, right?
I think Q1/Q2 wins are probably the most important metric when it comes to tourney inclusion/seeding. Granted, if our NET keeps rising, I think that means we will be picking up more of those wins.
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CBS Top 25 and 1 has Marquette at #16
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Kstate losing to Ole Miss was sub optimal.
We played both but the loss put Kstate on Q1 life support
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The number Q1 and Q2 wins maters less as/if our NET ranking keeps rising, right?
At the end Q wins are most important.
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At the end Q wins are most important.
Unless you are Iowa apparently.
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Moved up to 28 from 29 in NET.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 30, 2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
16 16 UConn
20 19 Xavier
28 29 Marquette
30 31 Providence
42 41 Seton Hall
73 73 Creighton
91 91 St. John's
108 109 DePaul
132 131 Butler
199 199 Georgetown
January 31 Team Sheets . Marquette is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
St. Bonnie back to Q2... barely.
(https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=62385.0;attach=10253;image)
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Losing to Providence made our win over them a Q1 win...though K-State fell to Q2 so it comes out in the wash.
We could really use WVU and Ole Miss getting hot, though I'm starting to think WVU might not make the tourney. They have lost 5 straight and kenpom has them as underdogs in their next TEN straight.
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Losing to Providence made our win over them a Q1 win...though K-State fell to Q2 so it comes out in the wash.
We could really use WVU and Ole Miss getting hot, though I'm starting to think WVU might not make the tourney. They have lost 5 straight and kenpom has them as underdogs in their next TEN straight.
Might it be the last year for Huggins? Admittedly my sample size is 1 game vs. MU, but Huggins had no energy. Time for him to ride out to join Roy, K, etc.?
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Might it be the last year for Huggins? Admittedly my sample size is 1 game vs. MU, but Huggins had no energy. Time for him to ride out to join Roy, K, etc.?
No idea, but he's 68, so probably not too much longer. That program could be in trouble if he goes. It's a Big 12 program, so they will be able to get candidates, but that's a tough place to recruit to and I'm sure the alum aspect helps Huggins. The Big 12 is getting stronger and adding programs with young, promising coaches in BYU and Cincinnati, and Houston will be another tough program, so there is more room at the bottom of the league and WVU without Huggs could easily fit in there. Before Huggs, even with Beilein's time included, they had made just 4 NCAA Tournaments in 18 years. If he goes, I could see them sliding back pretty quick.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 31, 2022
• After losing to Providence 65-63 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (12-8 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #37 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Feb 2 vs. #7 Villanova. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 33% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 6%
Projected Seed 7
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Big East Poll Rankings January 31,2022
AP
12.Nova
15. Cooley & Company
17. U-Conn
21. X
24. MU
Coaches
12.Nova
15. Cooley& Company
17. U-Conn
23. X
24. MU
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
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Big East Poll Rankings January 31,2022
AP
12.Nova
15. Cooley & Company
17. U-Conn
21. X
24. MU
Coaches
12.Nova
15. Cooley& Company
17. U-Conn
23. X
24. MU
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Seton Hall barely hanging on in ORV goes on to lose to St John's by 21 and Marquette by 10 at home and still gets votes this week.
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Marquette is # 19 in Andy Katz’s Power 36 which came out today January 31st
19. Marquette (23): The Golden Eagles had a great chance to win at Providence. Shaka Smart has Marquette all the way in the field. What a job he has done.
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So Marquette starts the month with a NET of 83 after the Creighton loss and finishes at 28.
A NET gain of 55 spots. Unbelievable!
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So Marquette starts the month with a NET of 83 after the Creighton loss and finishes at 28.
A NET gain of 55 spots. Unbelievable!
Exactly as I predicted!
(Or something like that.)
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Exactly as I predicted!
(Or something like that.)
The Nostradamus of Scoop.
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Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.
It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?
Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2022
New Old
4 5 Villanova
16 16 UConn
20 20 Xavier
28 28 Marquette
30 30 Providence
43 42 Seton Hall
73 73 Creighton
92 91 St. John's
109 108 DePaul
132 132 Butler
196 199 Georgetown
February 1 Team Sheets. Marquette is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.
It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?
Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.
Correct. Houston has lost both of their Q1 games (which are both Q1A games) by a combined margin of 3. Meanwhile they have three Q2A wins by an average margin of 18. They have also won 5/7 of their Q3 games by double digits with 4/5 being by 17 or more. Their average margin of victory in their 7 Q4 games is 35.7, which includes beating #228 Bryant by 67.
Essentially, Houston has kept it close in their only two meaningful games and obliterated everyone else they played. Makes for a great NET score but they are probably a little overvalued.
North Carolina, more of the same. They are 0-6 in Q1 games including some really bad blowouts. But they are 15-0 in Q2/Q3/Q4 and they won 14/15 by double digits.
Washington State is carried by by 5 Q3 wins that they won by at least 17 points and a 16 point road win over Utah. Blowing out meh but not bad teams can cover a lot of flaws....like their two Q3 losses and Q4 loss to #216 Eastern Washington. Still eyeballing their resume, they still seem a little high.
I can't see Washington State making the tourney without a lot better performance going forward. North Carolina shouldn't with 0 Q1 wins but they may get in due to soft bubble and name recognition. Houston will deservingly get a high seed but I think it will be in the 3/4 range, not 1/2.
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Just updated my own S-Curve, a few thoughts on that...
- I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
- For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
- Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
- One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.
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Just updated my own S-Curve, a few thoughts on that...
- I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
- For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
- Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
- One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.
Where do you have Iowa brew?
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Where do you have Iowa brew?
11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.
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11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.
Thanks!
Sorry, I just noticed your post here: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/02/non-con-check-in.html?m=1
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Up to 27 in NET.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
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Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.
Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.
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Marquette was their Super Bowl.
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I don't know what happened to that team,
See attached minutes per game. I'm guessing they are all gassed.
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Marquette was their Super Bowl.
Hang a banner!
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Kstate needs to win tonight
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2022
New Old
5 4 Villanova
17 16 UConn
18 20 Xavier
27 28 Marquette
29 30 Providence
41 43 Seton Hall
65 73 Creighton
96 92 St. John's
110 109 DePaul
132 132 Butler
203 196 Georgetown
February 2 Team Sheets . Marquette is 27
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team
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Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.
Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.
Where is SBU19?
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Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.
Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.
Too bad we didn't get Boise in Charleston.
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See attached minutes per game. I'm guessing they are all gassed.
Woj excuse
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Woj excuse
Wojo never played 4 guys 38 minutes a game.
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What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?
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What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?
We played both so nothing
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What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?
Probably nothing since we played them both once. But it will help MU's resume since Illinois will improve their NET.
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Nm
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What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?
I enjoyed seeing Madison lose.
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If IL/WI is a NET wash for MU, what does spanking the #5 team in NET do?
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My bucky friends did not even want to acknowledge the MU sweep against Nova after their beatdown by IL.
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I enjoyed seeing Madison lose.
+1000
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Marquette is #25 in the NET today
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What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?
It just warms the heart.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 2 ,2022
New Old
7 5 Villanova
17 17 UConn
20 18 Xavier
25 27 Marquette
29 29 Providence
42 41 Seton Hall
67 65 Creighton
95 96 St. John's
111 110 DePaul
127 132 Butler
198 203 Georgetown
February 3 Team Sheets . Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Blind resume comparison. A or B?
A B
Q1A 2-4 3-4
Q1 2-2 4-1
Q2 3-0 2-1
Q3 5-0 3-1
Q4 4-0 4-0
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From a quick glance, as of right now it looks like we have played the most Q1 games, and are tied with the most Q1 wins.
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From a quick glance, as of right now it looks like we have played the most Q1 games, and are tied with the most Q1 wins.
Resume would look even better if the Bonnies would have kept their heads from the a$$es
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Blind resume comparison. A or B?
A B
Q1A 2-4 3-4
Q1 2-2 4-1
Q2 3-0 2-1
Q3 5-0 3-1
Q4 4-0 4-0
B!!!!!!!!!!!! Ha pretty obvious who the two teams were immediately. Wild through.
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Resume would look even better if the Bonnies would have kept their heads from the a$$es
Yeah it sucks that they basically suck now.
Top 25 team returns like everyone. A team of seniors beats a super young team on a neutral floor in November.
Very reasonable we lost it. Now its a damn Q3 game.
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Yeah it sucks that they basically suck now.
Top 25 team returns like everyone. A team of seniors beats a super young team on a neutral floor in November.
Very reasonable we lost it. Now its a damn Q3 game.
Same as if we'd lost to DePaul at home...
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Biggest bummer is our win combined with Kstates win did absolutely nothing to move them off the literal Q1 bubble. They stayed right at 75.
Must of been other results of their that hurt.
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Biggest bummer is our win combined with Kstates win did absolutely nothing to move them off the literal Q1 bubble. They stayed right at 75.
Must of been other results of their that hurt.
Beating Okst at home by 3 probably hurt their NET slightly
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Beating Okst at home by 3 probably hurt their NET slightly
Since the spread was like 2.5 and Ok state was like 60 in the NET didnt think it would. But honestly I know basically nothing about NET
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Moved up to #25 in the NET.
I believe that's 7 quad 1 wins for MU
#3 SOS
*I believe ESPN had on their ticker that according to the "BPI" Nova had a 78% chance of winning last night. Oh....okay.
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Moved up to #25 in the NET.
I believe that's 7 quad 1 wins for MU
#3 SOS
*I believe ESPN had on their ticker that according to the "BPI" Nova had a 78% chance of winning last night. Oh....okay.
BPI is trash. It's a travesty that they include it on the Team Sheet over options like T-Rank or Haslametrics.
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Moved up to #25 in the NET.
I believe that's 7 quad 1 wins for MU
#3 SOS
*I believe ESPN had on their ticker that according to the "BPI" Nova had a 78% chance of winning last night. Oh....okay.
ESPN BPI finally has us in the top 50!!
Checking in at 44
Thing is a joke
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BPI is trash. It's a travesty that they include it on the Team Sheet over options like T-Rank or Haslametrics.
What’s MU’s BPI? If someone already knows. I don’t even want to give it page views.
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BPI is trash. It's a travesty that they include it on the Team Sheet over options like T-Rank or Haslametrics.
Didn't kenpom and torvik also forecast a solid Nova win?
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Didn't kenpom and torvik also forecast a solid Nova win?
I think KP projected a 3 or 4 point win for Nova
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BPI is trash. It's a travesty that they include it on the Team Sheet over options like T-Rank or Haslametrics.
I get we wouldn't be favored but a 22% chance on our home floor Brew? Is this a basketball metric or a clown throwing at a dart board?
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I think KP projected a 3 or 4 point win for Nova
That seems like a "solid" road win. But no, it's not a 78% chance like the other crazy predictor stat.
I'm just grateful that they actually decided to play the games or else we'd be 7-16.
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Didn't kenpom and torvik also forecast a solid Nova win?
Yes, and justifiably so, but BPI is terrible not because of Marquette but because it always has some inexplicable outliers. Boise State is top-40 in every other metric, but 53 in BPI. BYU is top-42 in every other metric, but 62 in BPI. Colorado State is top-50 everywhere else, #88 in BPI.
When it comes to seeding and the bubble, looking at a team's average computer ranking using the 5 metrics on the team sheet (KPI, SOR, BPI, kenpom, Sagarin) is an easy way to sort and slot teams. For Marquette, when our average in the other 4 drops from 21.5 to 26 when you include BPI, that means we potentially drop a line or two. But for a team like CSU, who drops from 43 to 52, that could very well knock them out of the tournament.
Meanwhile, ACC teams are overrated by BPI with 9 in the top-67 (Pomeroy has just 6). Virginia Tech is #26 in BPI, no better than 42 anywhere else, Clemson is #49 in BPI, no better than 64 anywhere else. I don't like that the metric created and marketed by ESPN, which has a monetary reason to favor certain leagues due to television contracts, is put on the team sheet, especially when you see suspect results like that which prop ACC teams up while dragging some mid-majors down. I would rather see Haslam or Torvik on there even though both are UW-Madison grads because their systems don't seem to have the same blatant bias.
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Yes, and justifiably so, but BPI is terrible not because of Marquette but because it always has some inexplicable outliers. Boise State is top-40 in every other metric, but 53 in BPI. BYU is top-42 in every other metric, but 62 in BPI. Colorado State is top-50 everywhere else, #88 in BPI.
When it comes to seeding and the bubble, looking at a team's average computer ranking using the 5 metrics on the team sheet (KPI, SOR, BPI, kenpom, Sagarin) is an easy way to sort and slot teams. For Marquette, when our average in the other 4 drops from 21.5 to 26 when you include BPI, that means we potentially drop a line or two. But for a team like CSU, who drops from 43 to 52, that could very well knock them out of the tournament.
Meanwhile, ACC teams are overrated by BPI with 9 in the top-67 (Pomeroy has just 6). Virginia Tech is #26 in BPI, no better than 42 anywhere else, Clemson is #49 in BPI, no better than 64 anywhere else. I don't like that the metric created and marketed by ESPN, which has a monetary reason to favor certain leagues due to television contracts, is put on the team sheet, especially when you see suspect results like that which prop ACC teams up while dragging some mid-majors down. I would rather see Haslam or Torvik on there even though both are UW-Madison grads because their systems don't seem to have the same blatant bias.
TY Brew. In other words it's a complete clown show and should not have anything to do with the metrics that determine rankings or tournament seeding.
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I think KP projected a 3 or 4 point win for Nova
Close games against cupcakes, 2 one point wins, and 3 double digit loses (including the terribly aging St. Bonnie game) have ruined the prediction models.
Since Jan 1, Marquette has been playing like a top 15 team. But the early season games still hold equal wait in computer models. That's why the betting lines have been so wonky.
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TY Brew. In other words it's a complete clown show and should not have anything to do with the metrics that determine rankings or tournament seeding.
Exactly. None of the metrics are completely transparent, and that's fine, but I think it's best to divorce the information on the team sheet from private media companies with clear financial interests.
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Close games against cupcakes, 2 one point wins, and 3 double digit loses (including the terribly aging St. Bonnie game) have ruined the prediction models.
Since Jan 1, Marquette has been playing like a top 15 team. But the early season games still hold equal wait in computer models. That's why the betting lines have been so wonky.
All of this is very true. We are having a unicorn of season and it's awesome
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Yep, they were a worse team at the begining of the year and the results are just now catching up for the computers on how good the team is now.
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We are having a unicorn of season and it's awesome
I'm including Juan being in the dunk contest with the unicorn season.
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Entering box scores into www.muoverload.com I just came across a couple random stats I thought I'd share.
- Marquette is 10-0 when making 10 three pointers or more. They are 6-7 in games they do not.
- Yesterday's game at the Providence home game are the only games Marquette never trailed in.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 3, 2022
• After beating Villanova 83-73 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 21-10 (13-7 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #34 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Tue, Feb 8 at #16 Connecticut. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 25% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 8%
Projected Seed 6
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 3, 2022
New Old
8 7 Villanova
17 17 UConn
20 20 Xavier
25 25 Marquette
29 29 Providence
43 42 Seton Hall
69 67 Creighton
90 95 St. John's
108 111 DePaul
127 127 Butler
204 198 Georgetown
February 4 Team Sheets.Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 4, 2022
New Old
8 8 Villanova
17 17 UConn
20 20 Xavier
25 25 Marquette
29 29 Providence
35 43 Seton Hall
73 69 Creighton
90 90 St. John's
107 108 DePaul
127 127 Butler
205 204 Georgetown
February 5 Team Sheets. Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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MAKE DEPAUL TOP 100 AGAIN!
Also for the love of God someone give West Virginia a win, that’s 7 losses in a row.
That Charleston Classic really becoming the gift that keeps on taking from MUs resume, woof
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Huggy put himself out to pasture, he just didn't tell anyone
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WVU vs ISU coming up could be first to 35 wins
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Huggy needs to retire before he dies of a stroke or rips the scales at 400 lbs
And ... yes ... what looked like a good win v WVU is now worthless
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Kansas State just won on the road at TCU. That win the Golden Eagles had at K-State keeps getting better and better.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 5,2022
New Old
6 8 Villanova
18 17 UConn
21 20 Xavier
25 25 Marquette
28 29 Providence
35 35 Seton Hall
74 73 Creighton
87 90 St. John's
104 107 DePaul
135 127 Butler
206 205 Georgetown
February 6 Team Sheets. Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Surprised the Xavier/DePaul result had such a minimal impact for each team. I assume it’s because it’s much more difficult to move considerably in either direction at this point in the season?
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Surprised the Xavier/DePaul result had such a minimal impact for each team. I assume it’s because it’s much more difficult to move considerably in either direction at this point in the season?
Great question. A home loss to a POS team like DePaul results in a NET loss of ... 1? Really? So we can lose at DePaul and it will barely register a ripple? (Except on Scoop, where it would be a catastrophe of epic proportions.)
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Great question. A home loss to a POS team like DePaul results in a NET loss of ... 1? Really? So we can lose at DePaul and it will barely register a ripple? (Except on Scoop, where it would be a catastrophe of epic proportions.)
It always is.
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Great question. A home loss to a POS team like DePaul results in a NET loss of ... 1? Really? So we can lose at DePaul and it will barely register a ripple? (Except on Scoop, where it would be a catastrophe of epic proportions.)
My guess is there was a big points drop, but a limited ranking drop. There seems to be a points bubble in the advance metrics right around twenty. Same thing is there on KenPom.
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Can’t believe DePaul didn’t crack the top 100… the NET is drunk this morning
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Great question. A home loss to a POS team like DePaul results in a NET loss of ... 1? Really? So we can lose at DePaul and it will barely register a ripple? (Except on Scoop, where it would be a catastrophe of epic proportions.)
DePaul really isn’t that bad. It isn’t like losing to Georgetown or even Butler.
Also, what jfp said. Probably a bigger points drop than ratings drop. In Kenpom there is a huge gap 15 and 23. It’s the same as the gap between 23 and 79
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There's more data now. Each individual game matters less and less. It gets very hard to move up or down the later the season gets
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OK guys, thanks for the info.
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Marquette stays at 25 in the NET today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 6, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
21 21 Xavier
25 25 Marquette
26 28 Providence
35 35 Seton Hall
74 74 Creighton
86 87 St. John's
103 104 DePaul
135 135 Butler
211 206 Georgetown
February 7 Team Sheets . Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team
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Bracketville has us in Buffalo as a 4 playing South Dakota State, followed by 5 seed Ohio State. 1 Seed of Kansas in the San Antonio region and a possibility of meeting Bucky or Arizona in an E8 matchup to go to final four.
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Bracketville has us in Buffalo as a 4 playing SD state, followed by 5 seed Ohio State. 1 Seed of Kansas in the San Antonio region and a possibility of meeting Bucky or Arizona in an E8 matchup to go to final four.
I don’t know much about SD State but in the past they have been scrappy.
OSU and Kansas is a solid draw tho for those rounds
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I don’t know much about SD State but in the past they have been scrappy.
OSU and Kansas is a solid draw tho for those rounds
Kenpom as South Dakota state as top 15 offense with a defense at 250 (79 overall team). Would be fun to see if Marquette could impose it's will on both ends of the floor in that one given the big disparity (our top 25 defense and top 60 offense)
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Kenpom as South Dakota state as top 15 offense with a defense at 250 (79 overall team). Would be fun to see if Marquette could impose it's will on both ends of the floor in that one given the big disparity (our top 25 defense and top 60 offense)
We sure it’s South Dakota and not San Diego?
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We sure it’s South Dakota and not San Diego?
Yes, as I was the one that wrote the original post about Bracketville.
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Yes, as I was the one that wrote the original post about Bracketville.
Haha and I also didn’t look. Dummy move by me sorry. Thanks
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Bracketville has us in Buffalo as a 4 playing South Dakota State, followed by 5 seed Ohio State. 1 Seed of Kansas in the San Antonio region and a possibility of meeting Bucky or Arizona in an E8 matchup to go to final four.
As alumni of both schools this is my worst case scenario.
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a possibility of meeting whoever beat Bucky in the first round or Arizona in an E8 matchup to go to final four.
FIFY
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Awesome, are there like 800 games between now and tourney time that could change any of the seeds or maybe even upsets in the tourney itself that may affect who MU plays in the E8?
Bracketville has us in Buffalo as a 4 playing South Dakota State, followed by 5 seed Ohio State. 1 Seed of Kansas in the San Antonio region and a possibility of meeting Bucky or Arizona in an E8 matchup to go to final four.
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Awesome, are there like 800 games between now and tourney time that could change any of the seeds or maybe even upsets in the tourney itself that may affect who MU plays in the E8?
This guy is fun at parties.
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Awesome, are there like 800 games between now and tourney time that could change any of the seeds or maybe even upsets in the tourney itself that may affect who MU plays in the E8?
We agree. That can't be good.
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Big East Poll Rankings February 7, 2022
AP
11. Cooley & Company
15. Nova
18. MU
24. U Conn
25. X
Coaches
11. Cooley & Company
15. Nova
19. MU
23. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
X, The Hall
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 7, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
21 21 Xavier
25 25 Marquette
26 26 Providence
35 35 Seton Hall
75 74 Creighton
88 86 St. John's
103 103 DePaul
135 135 Butler
212 211 Georgetown
February 8 Team Sheets . Marquette is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team
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John Gasaway ESPN Insider’s opening Bubble Watch came out today. He has Villanova as the Big East’s only lock. Marquette is in the Should Be In Section along with Providence, UConn and Xavier. He has Seton Hall and Creighton in the Work To Do Section.
Marquette Golden Eagles
The coach who draws Marquette as an opponent in the NCAA tournament is going to wince when he looks at this team's numbers for defense and shooting. Oklahoma transfer Kur Kuath has blocked five or more shots in a game five times this season, and Shaka Smart's team has made 39% of its 3s in Big East play. True, the good news for our fretful opposing coach is that Marquette is notably weak on the boards at both ends of the floor. But if Justin Lewis and Kam Jones are hitting from outside, you can win the rebound battle only to lose the game. Also, that opposing coach might be bringing a No. 13 seed to the bracket: Smart's group is projected to land on the No. 4 line.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 8,2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
20 21 Xavier
24 25 Marquette
25 26 Providence
33 35 Seton Hall
76 75 Creighton
88 88 St. John's
105 103 DePaul
132 135 Butler
213 212 Georgetown
February 9 Team Sheets . Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 8,2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
20 21 Xavier
24 25 Marquette
25 26 Providence
33 35 Seton Hall
76 75 Creighton
88 88 St. John's
105 103 DePaul
132 135 Butler
213 212 Georgetown
February 9 Team Sheets . Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team
I know there are all kinds of reasons for it, but I still had to chuckle upon seeing that our loss moved us up a spot while UConn's win only helped them stay where they were.
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I know there are all kinds of reasons for it, but I still had to chuckle upon seeing that our loss moved us up a spot while UConn's win only helped them stay where they were.
Michigan State dropped from 23 to 26 after losing to Wisconsin. That is why Marquette and Providence both moved up 1 spot.
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Michigan State dropped from 23 to 26 after losing to Wisconsin. That is why Marquette and Providence both moved up 1 spot.
Michigan St 🍦
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I know there are all kinds of reasons for it, but I still had to chuckle upon seeing that our loss moved us up a spot while UConn's win only helped them stay where they were.
Agree had to chuckle too. Reminded me of Marquette in 2020 finishing #26 in the NET after losing most of the games down the stretch. NET Rankings as of Wednesday, March 4 2020
NET Rank Team Record
1 Kansas 25 – 3
2 Gonzaga 29 – 2
3 Dayton 27 – 2
4 San Diego State 27 – 1
5 Baylor 26 – 3
6 Duke 24 – 6
7 Michigan State 21 – 9
8 Louisville 24 – 6
9 BYU 23 – 7
10 Arizona 19 – 10
11 Florida State 24 – 5
12 Seton Hall 21 – 7
13 Creighton 21 – 7
14 Villanova 22 – 7
15 Ohio State 20 – 9
16 Oregon 22 – 7
17 Maryland 23 – 7
18 Houston 22 – 7
19 West Virginia 20 – 10
20 Butler 20 – 9
21 Kentucky 24 – 6
22 Texas Tech 18 – 12
23 Colorado 21 – 9
24 Michigan 18 – 11
25 Stanford 20 – 9
26 Marquette 18 – 11
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As alumni of both schools this is my worst case scenario.
[/quote
Alumnus.
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The Big East was tough that year.
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Agree had to chuckle too. Reminded me of Marquette in 2020 finishing #26 in the NET after losing most of the games down the stretch. NET Rankings as of Wednesday, March 4 2020
NET Rank Team Record
1 Kansas 25 – 3
2 Gonzaga 29 – 2
3 Dayton 27 – 2
4 San Diego State 27 – 1
5 Baylor 26 – 3
6 Duke 24 – 6
7 Michigan State 21 – 9
8 Louisville 24 – 6
9 BYU 23 – 7
10 Arizona 19 – 10
11 Florida State 24 – 5
12 Seton Hall 21 – 7
13 Creighton 21 – 7
14 Villanova 22 – 7
15 Ohio State 20 – 9
16 Oregon 22 – 7
17 Maryland 23 – 7
18 Houston 22 – 7
19 West Virginia 20 – 10
20 Butler 20 – 9
21 Kentucky 24 – 6
22 Texas Tech 18 – 12
23 Colorado 21 – 9
24 Michigan 18 – 11
25 Stanford 20 – 9
26 Marquette 18 – 11
Another data point firmly placing MU in the tourney that year.
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Another data point firmly placing MU in the tourney that year.
This “data point” wasn’t the end of the season. We lost the next game, too - giving us 6 looses in our final 7 to finish the regular season 18-12, 8-10. A first found loss in the BE tournament (extremely likely given the way we were trending) makes us 18-13 with 7 losses in our last 8. I don’t think that places us “firmly in” but for the sake of argument let’s say we squeak in. That likely means an eve 18-14 finish, 8 losses in our last 9 and our third embarrassing tourney loss in three tries. And it would go down as Wojo’s 3rd best season out of 7. Now, that’s a data point to chew on!
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This “data point” wasn’t the end of the season. We lost the next game, too - giving us 6 looses in our final 7 to finish the regular season 18-12, 8-10. A first found loss in the BE tournament (extremely likely given the way we were trending) makes us 18-13 with 7 losses in our last 8. I don’t think that places us “firmly in” but for the sake of argument let’s say we squeak in. That likely means an eve 18-14 finish, 8 losses in our last 9 and our third embarrassing tourney loss in three tries. And it would go down as Wojo’s 3rd best season out of 7. Now, that’s a data point to chew on!
Ignore the actual data point (in 97/97 brackets, with an average seed of 8.7) and take a hypothetical two more losses!
That’s some solid data!
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This “data point” wasn’t the end of the season. We lost the next game, too - giving us 6 looses in our final 7 to finish the regular season 18-12, 8-10. A first found loss in the BE tournament (extremely likely given the way we were trending) makes us 18-13 with 7 losses in our last 8. I don’t think that places us “firmly in” but for the sake of argument let’s say we squeak in. That likely means an eve 18-14 finish, 8 losses in our last 9 and our third embarrassing tourney loss in three tries. And it would go down as Wojo’s 3rd best season out of 7. Now, that’s a data point to chew on!
Wojo is gone. Shaka is better. Holding on to anger and denying reality isn't healthy.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 9, 2022
• After losing to Connecticut 80-72 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 21-10 (13-7 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #35 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sat, Feb 12 at #118 Butler. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 67% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 8%
Projected Seed 6
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 9,2022
6 6 Villanova
17 18 UConn
21 20 Xavier
24 24 Marquette
25 25 Providence
33 33 Seton Hall
76 76 Creighton
85 88 St. John's
104 105 DePaul
130 132 Butler
213 213 Georgetown
February 10 Team Sheets. Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Wojo is gone. Shaka is better. Holding on to anger and denying reality isn't healthy.
Painting phony pictures about the past isn’t healthy.
-
Painting phony pictures about the past isn’t healthy.
Says the guy who assumed two additional losses to make his point.
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Painting phony pictures about the past isn’t healthy.
No phony pictures. 3 Tourney bids in 7 years. Two losing seasons. One 20 win season with no postseason. One NIT. Meh coach.
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No phony pictures. 3 Tourney bids in 7 years. Two losing seasons. One 20 win season with no postseason. One NIT. Meh coach.
Anywhere from 1 to 5 (maybe 6 with Lewis) NBA players depending how you score it.
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I like Shaka's style better, both on offense and defense. I hope that MU is his forever home and that he wants to be at MU for 25 years and is successful enough that MU wants to keep him for 25 years. I hoped the same thing for Wojo. I hoped he would outgrow his Duke roots and adjust to the big chair. Middling success, but ultimately a meh coach at MU. Moved on and enjoying this season without expectations.
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I like Shaka's style better, both on offense and defense. I hope that MU is his forever home and that he wants to be at MU for 25 years and is successful enough that MU wants to keep him for 25 years. I hoped the same thing for Wojo. I hoped he would outgrow his Duke roots and adjust to the big chair. Middling success, but ultimately a meh coach at MU. Moved on and enjoying this season without expectations.
Agree with most of this. However, I DO have expectations for this team now, as they've "earned" greater expectations.
I now will be quite disappointed if we don't win more than 20 games and if we don't do something in the NCAAT.
IMHO that's the "burden" of having played so much better than most of us thought they would.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 10,2022
New Old
5 6 Villanova
17 17 UConn
22 21 Xavier
24 24 Marquette
25 25 Providence
34 33 Seton Hall
77 76 Creighton
84 85 St. John's
103 104 DePaul
131 130 Butler
213 213 Georgetown
February 11 Team Sheets. Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Huge win for the Bonnies
Moves them up to Q2 for now
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Anywhere from 1 to 5 (maybe 6 with Lewis) NBA players depending how you score it.
Ya, but after Matthews, Butler, and Crowder who are getting older theres not a lot of our guys in the league (Toscano,Howard) and no star power...Ellenson not turning out hurt that for Wojo to...Buzz had a very good run of getting guys in to the league..Wojo not so much but i think Shaka is going to get us back there to having a player or 2 drafted every year or 2
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Does St. Johns have an outside shot of getting in to the big dance?? big game vs UConn tmmrw and then 2 they should win...its a big if, but if they can win those 3 there siting at 16 and 10 with an 8-7 record in conference...interesting
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Does St. Johns have an outside shot of getting in to the big dance?? big game vs UConn tmmrw and then 2 they should win...its a big if, but if they can win those 3 there siting at 16 and 10 with an 8-7 record in conference...interesting
No
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Does St. Johns have an outside shot of getting in to the big dance?? big game vs UConn tmmrw and then 2 they should win...its a big if, but if they can win those 3 there siting at 16 and 10 with an 8-7 record in conference...interesting
St. John's is 2-9 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. And one of those wins will drop to a Q3 if MU spanks Butler tomorrow. They also have to overcome a Q4 loss and an NET in the 80s.
St. John's technically has a chance but they can afford a max of two losses before the BET...and I'm not even sure that would be enough.
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5 5 Villanova
17 17 UConn
21 22 Xavier
24 24 Marquette
25 25 Providence
34 34 Seton Hall
76 77 Creighton
84 84 St. John's
103 103 DePaul
132 131 Butler
211 213 Georgetown
February 12Team Sheets. Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Does St. Johns have an outside shot of getting in to the big dance?? big game vs UConn tmmrw and then 2 they should win...its a big if, but if they can win those 3 there siting at 16 and 10 with an 8-7 record in conference...interesting
If they win out, yes. Their non-con was too weak to give them any leeway, especially considering how the Selection Committee typically treats bubble teams with weak non-con schedules.
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Does St. Johns have an outside shot of getting in to the big dance?? big game vs UConn tmmrw and then 2 they should win...its a big if, but if they can win those 3 there siting at 16 and 10 with an 8-7 record in conference...interesting
Yes, tickets are readily available
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of February 12, 2022
New Old
6 5 Villanova
18 17 UConn
20 21 Xavier
28 25 Providence
29 24 Marquette
33 34 Seton Hall
71 76 Creighton
87 84 St. John's
101 103 DePaul
123 132 Butler
217 211 Georgetown
February 13 Team Sheets. Marquette is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 13, 2022
• After losing to Butler 85-79 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (12-8 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #37 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Feb 16 vs. #164 Georgetown. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 92% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 7%
Projected Seed 7
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Marquette NET is at 30 today February 14th
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Marquette NET is at 30 today February 14th
About as good as you can expect from a team with 9 losses. They’ve played the toughest schedule I can remember. Not a lot of easy wins like there were in the Crean days.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 13 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
20 20 Xavier
29 28 Providence
30 29 Marquette
34 33 Seton Hall
71 71 Creighton
87 87 St. John's
100 101 DePaul
123 123 Butler
218 217 Georgetown
February 14 Team Sheets. Marquette is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East Poll Rankings February 14,2022
AP
8. Cooley & Company
10. Nova
24. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU, X
Coaches
9.Cooley & Company
10. Nova
23.MU
24.U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
X,The Hall
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 14, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
20 20 Xavier
30 29 Providence
31 30 Marquette
34 34 Seton Hall
70 71 Creighton
88 87 St. John's
101 100 DePaul
121 123 Butler
215 218 Georgetown
February 15 Team Sheets. Marquette is 31
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 15, 2022
New Old
5 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
20 20 Xavier
29 31 Marquette
31 30 Providence
33 34 Seton Hall
69 70 Creighton
90 88 St. John's
104 101 DePaul
116 121 Butler
214 215 Georgetown
February 16 Team Sheets. Marquette is 29
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Aha! We jumped the 'Dence!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 16, 2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
18 18 UConn
23 20 Xavier
30 31 Providence
31 29 Marquette
34 33 Seton Hall
71 69 Creighton
78 90 St. John's
106 104 DePaul
119 116 Butler
209 214 Georgetown
February 17 Team Sheets. Marquette is 31
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Gtwn closing the gap turned home games against us into Q2 games. Rest of the conference is pissed!
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Xavier losing by 13 at home to the team 90th in NET drops them only 3 spots. Lucky them.
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After all the games concluded last night, our Kenpom went from 32 -> 39, but Torvic went from 41 -> 39. They've finally converged!
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Gtwn closing the gap turned home games against us into Q2 games. Rest of the conference is pissed!
Georgetown finding new ways to hurt the conference.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 16, 2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
18 18 UConn
23 20 Xavier
30 31 Providence
31 29 Marquette
34 33 Seton Hall
71 69 Creighton
78 90 St. John's
106 104 DePaul
119 116 Butler
209 214 Georgetown
February 17 Team Sheets. Marquette is 31
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
Illinois losing to Rutgers, no bueno
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Illinois losing to Rutgers, no bueno
The RAC is back to being a house of horrors. Only 2 losses there this year...to #315 Lafayette (??) and #91 Maryland. But wins against #12 Purdue, #18 Iowa, #23 MSU, and #17 OSU and #31 WI, and #15 Ill (all kenpom #s)
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The RAC is back to being a house of horrors. Only 2 losses there this year...to #315 Lafayette (??) and #91 Maryland. But wins against #12 Purdue, #18 Iowa, #23 MSU, and #17 OSU and #31 WI, and #15 Ill (all kenpom #s)
Yeah, there KenPom and NET numbers aren't good overall but they're 6-3 in Quad 1 games.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 17, 2022
• After beating Georgetown 77-66 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 20-11 (12-8 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #39 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sun, Feb 20 at #71 Creighton. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 49% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 6%
Projected Seed 7
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 17,2022
New Old
5 5 Villanova
18 18 UConn
24 23 Xavier
30 30 Providence
32 31 Marquette
34 34 Seton Hall
66 71 Creighton
78 78 St. John's
108 106 DePaul
118 119 Butler
209 209 Georgetown
February 18 Team Sheets .Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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The RAC is back to being a house of horrors. Only 2 losses there this year...to #315 Lafayette (??) and #91 Maryland. But wins against #12 Purdue, #18 Iowa, #23 MSU, and #17 OSU and #31 WI, and #15 Ill (all kenpom #s)
The win vs. WI was in Madison.
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I sure hope MU ends up with better
than a seven seed.
A win this weekend would really help.
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I sure hope MU ends up with better
than a seven seed.
A win this weekend would really help.
I would say that Marquette has a nearly 100% chance of staying on the 6 line or better with a win this Sunday, so yea from that perspective this one is huge.
Lets not forgot that after this weekend MU has 3 home games left against the bottom half of the league- yes the game at DePaul is basically a home game.
That 2 line has some teams that Marquette just cannot beat unless it plays a perfect game and everything aligns- teams with extremely athletic lineups and a lot of quality bigs like Duke, Purdue, Baylor, Kansas/Kentucky.
Having to beat one of those to make the sweet 16 would be bad news
The 3 line gets playable with teams like Texas Tech, Tennessee, Houston. If Marquette lands in the 6 line or better the odds of a sweet 16 run become astronomically better imo, even though winning that first game is all my setting my hopes on.
I view the 4/5 basically interchangeable with regards to the competition outside of 2 factors-
1- the seeding location/protected seed and playing closer stuff
2- the historically much bigger first rd upset fodder of the 5 seeds.
That second part is matchup based and I wouldn’t be as worried this year since Marquette would be favored versus the 12, albeit by a much smaller margin than versus the 13.
Fwiw to get a 4 seed I think Marquette needs to win out in the regular season 21-9, 13-6 and maybe even avoid a first game loss in the BET
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I would say that Marquette has a nearly 100% chance of staying on the 6 line or better with a win this Sunday, so yea from that perspective this one is huge.
Lets not forgot that after this weekend MU has 3 home games left against the bottom half of the league- yes the game at DePaul is basically a home game.
That 2 line has some teams that Marquette just cannot beat unless it plays a perfect game and everything aligns- teams with extremely athletic lineups and a lot of quality bigs like Duke, Purdue, Baylor, Kansas/Kentucky.
Having to beat one of those to make the sweet 16 would be bad news
The 3 line gets playable with teams like Texas Tech, Tennessee, Houston. If Marquette lands in the 6 line or better the odds of a sweet 16 run become astronomically better imo, even though winning that first game is all my setting my hopes on.
I view the 4/5 basically interchangeable with regards to the competition outside of 2 factors-
1- the seeding location/protected seed and playing closer stuff
2- the historically much bigger first rd upset fodder of the 5 seeds.
That second part is matchup based and I wouldn’t be as worried this year since Marquette would be favored versus the 12, albeit by a much smaller margin than versus the 13.
Fwiw to get a 4 seed I think Marquette needs to win out in the regular season 21-9, 13-6 and maybe even avoid a first game loss in the BET
I would actually love to draw Baylor and don't think Kansas would be that bad.
UK would be a goddamn nightmare. Duke similarly as bad. Purude could be exploited but ideal to avoid prior to weekend 2.
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Lunardi, has us as a 7 playing LUC, then Texas Tech. Sign me up.
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Lunardi, has us as a 7 playing LUC, then Texas Tech. Sign me up.
LUC is ?
Edit: never mind. Got it. Loyola Chicago.
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5 5 Villanova
18 18 UConn
24 24 Xavier
29 30 Providence
32 32 Marquette
34 34 Seton Hall
66 66 Creighton
68 78 St. John's
108 108 DePaul
131 118 Butler
207 209 Georgetown
February 19 Team Sheets .Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Marquette’s NET is 33 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 20, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
17 17 UConn
25 24 Xavier
27 27 Providence
33 30 Marquette
36 36 Seton Hall
62 67 Creighton
67 66 St. John's
111 110 DePaul
127 127 Butler
195 196 Georgetown
February 21 Team Sheets .Marquette is 33
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Here's how it looked on the morning of Feb. 12:
5 Villanova
17 UConn
21 Xavier
24 Marquette
25 Providence
34 Seton Hall
76 Creighton
84 St. John's
103 DePaul
132 Butler
211 Georgetown
We've dropped 9 spots since then. Only Georgetown has fared worse.
Time to right the ship, gentlemen!
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 21, 2022
• After losing to Creighton 83-82 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (11-9 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #39 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sat, Feb 26 vs. #115 Butler. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 84% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 6%
Projected Seed 8
-
TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 21, 2022
• After losing to Creighton 83-82 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (11-9 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #39 team in the country, and the #5 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Sat, Feb 26 vs. #115 Butler. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 84% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 6%
Projected Seed 8
Any idea as to which remaining opponent we are projected to lose to?
I'm hoping that the second Creighton loss also serves as a springboard (as did the first) for a 3-0 run plus at least one BET and one NCAAT win.
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Any idea as to which remaining opponent we are projected to lose to?
I'm hoping that the second Creighton loss also serves as a springboard (as did the first) for a 3-0 run plus at least one BET and one NCAAT win.
There's no "projected" losses, all 3 are "projected" wins with varying confidence %s. The least likely win is @ DePaul at 62% Then SJU at 70% and Butler at 86%.
Of course, those are all based on how well the teams have performed over the season as a whole, not just recently. Butler's offense has been clicking lately, DePaul has been keeping games close, and SJU has been playing much better. So, they'll just have to play the games and sort it all out :)
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I will be pleasantly surprised if the team wins all three games. The recent trend is a concern, at least in my opinion.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of February 21,2022
AP
8. Nova
11. Cooley & Company
21. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU,X, Creighton
Coaches
8. Nova
10. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU, Creighton, The Hall
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Big East NET Rankings as of Games of February 21, 2022
7 7 Villanova
17 17 UConn
25 25 Xavier
28 27 Providence
32 33 Marquette
36 36 Seton Hall
62 62 Creighton
66 67 St. John's
112 111 DePaul
127 127 Butler
195 195 Georgetown
February 22 Team Sheets .Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 22, 2022
New Old
8 7 Villanova
16 17 UConn
25 25 Xavier
28 28 Providence
32 32 Marquette
36 36 Seton Hall
64 62 Creighton
68 66 St. John's
112 112 DePaul
126 127 Butler
195 195 Georgetown
February 23 Team Sheets .Marquette is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Marquette’s NET is 34 today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 23, 2022
New Old
8 8 Villanova
16 16 UConn
26 25 Xavier
28 28 Providence
34 32 Marquette
37 36 Seton Hall
59 64 Creighton
71 68 St. John's
111 112 DePaul
127 126 Butler
195 195 Georgetown
February 24 Team Sheets .Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Loyola's 50 point beatdown over a 5 win team (net was 315) rocketed them up 8 spots and over us. Time for us to put a beatdown on Butler.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 24,2020
New Old
8 8 Villanova
16 16 UConn
25 26 Xavier
28 28 Providence
34 34 Marquette
38 37 Seton Hall
59 59 Creighton
71 71 St. John's
109 111 DePaul
127 127 Butler
200 195 Georgetown
February 25 Team Sheets .Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of February 25, 2022
New Old
8 8 Villanova
16 16 UConn
25 25 Xavier
28 28 Providence
34 34 Marquette
38 38 Seton Hall
59 59 Creighton
71 71 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
126 127 Butler
200 200 Georgetown
February 26 Team Sheets .Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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I will be pleasantly surprised if the team wins all three games. The recent trend is a concern, at least in my opinion.
need to put both the butler and creighton losses to work for our last 3 games...first up, the puppy dogs
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Marquette’s NET is 36 today
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Top 10 all lost last week, lots of teams passing Marquette. Seed in question? Could be 9 or 10 with mixed results
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Top 10 all lost last week, lots of teams passing Marquette. Seed in question? Could be 9 or 10 with mixed results
Honest question- how do you come up with the 9-10 seed narrative? I have not seen any "bracketologists" projecting Marquette at 9-10. And what are your "mixed results"?
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Big East Poll Rankings as of games of February 26,2022
New Old
7 8 Villanova
17 16 UConn
25 28 Providence
32 38 Seton Hall
35 25 Xavier
36 34 Marquette
67 59 Creighton
73 71 St. John's
109 109 DePaul
125 126 Butler
199 200 Georgetown
February 27 Team Sheets .Marquette is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Honest question- how do you come up with the 9-10 seed narrative? I have not seen any "bracketologists" projecting Marquette at 9-10. And what are your "mixed results"?
There are a few that have us that low, but only a few. There are 112 brackets on bracketmatrix. 2 (1.8%) have us at 10 and 6 (5.4%) have us at 9. That is more than the high end of predictions, only 1 has us as a 4 and 2 have us as a five. 15 us as an 8. The vast majority have us on between a 6/7 seed.
People make the mistake of thinking that a lot of movement happens this late in the season. It's very hard to move significantly up or down at this point.
All that being said, the four teams above us on bracketmatrix all picked up q1 wins yesterday as did Michigan State and Iowa State who were two of the lower 7 seeds on bracket matrix. The top 8 seed, Colorado St also got a Q1 win. When they update, I expect us to lose a spot or two
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There are a few that have us that low, but only a few. There are 112 brackets on bracketmatrix. 2 (1.8%) have us at 10 and 6 (5.4%) have us at 9. That is more than the high end of predictions, only 1 has us as a 4 and 2 have us as a five. 15 us as an 8. The vast majority have us on between a 6/7 seed.
People make the mistake of thinking that a lot of movement happens this late in the season. It's very hard to move significantly up or down at this point.
All that being said, the four teams above us on bracketmatrix all picked up q1 wins yesterday as did Michigan State and Iowa State who were two of the lower 7 seeds on bracket matrix. The top 8 seed, Colorado St also got a Q1 win. When they update, I expect us to lose a spot or two
Thanks TAMU. Let's hope we are at least a 7 seed.
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I hope for a 6 but we’re now 37 on net ranking, which is by itself a 10 ranking. Couple that with the results this weekend and if we have mixed results going forward. A 9 or 10 is not out of the question.
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36 net ranking, 37 Ken Pom
Let’s say Marquette goes 1 and 2 the rest of the way
9 or 10 seed
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crap, why stop at them falling to the 9 or 10 seed, maybe they can make it all the way to the bubble line?
36 net ranking, 37 Ken Pom
Let’s say Marquette goes 1 and 2 the rest of the way
9 or 10 seed
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I hope for a 6 but we’re now 37 on net ranking, which is by itself a 10 ranking. Couple that with the results this weekend and if we have mixed results going forward. A 9 or 10 is not out of the question.
The NET is one tool of several. We also have 7 Q1 wins which is better than almost all of the teams around us. No Q3 or Q4 losses either.
If the tourney started today, a 9 or 10 seed would be out of the question. But yes if we go 0fer the rest of the way, it is a possibility. I don't expect to go 0fer the rest of the way.
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X finally plummeted and we lost a Q1 win. SHU is closing in on being a Q1 win though.
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X finally plummeted and we lost a Q1 win. SHU is closing in on being a Q1 win though.
Two wins
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Two wins
The road win at The Hall is already a Q1 win. But the win at Fiserv is not. You'r right, that would be 2 Q1 wins vs them. So a couple more wins for SH should move that into a Q1 win. And X is close to a Q1 win. They can win out also and perhaps move to a Q1.
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 27, 2022
• After beating Butler 64-56 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 19-11 (11-8 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #41 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Mar 2 at #94 DePaul. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 57% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 8%
Projected Seed 8
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Marquette’s NET is 34 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 27,2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
17 17 U Conn
25 25 Providence
32 32 Seton Hall
34 36 Marquette
36 35 Xavier
67 67 Creighton
75 73 St. John's
105 109 DePaul
126 125 Butler
197 199 Georgetown
February 28 Team Sheets. Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 27, 2022
• After beating Butler 64-56 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 19-11 (11-8 Big East).
• We currently rank Marquette as the #41 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
• Next game: Wed, Mar 2 at #94 DePaul. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 57% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 8%
Projected Seed 8
Yuck! Sure who wouldn't like to be a 6 or 7, I'd rather be a 10 or 11 as you play a 6 or 7 anyway than a 8 or 9.
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Yuck! Sure who wouldn't like to be a 6 or 7, I'd rather be a 10 or 11 as you play a 6 or 7 anyway than a 8 or 9.
Unless we get up to a 6. It doesnt matter much.
8/9 sucks typically. But for us the second game is gonna be all about getting the right 1 or 2 seed anyways.
We could be an 8 that is assigned to 1 seed Baylor. Or a 7 with 2 seed Kentucky.
I want Baylor without hesitation.
Kentucky is the biggest nightmare for us. Unless they somehow move up to a 1(unlikely at this point) I basically wanna stay outta 7/10 to avoid that match up at all costs.
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Unless we get up to a 6. It doesnt matter much.
8/9 sucks typically. But for us the second game is gonna be all about getting the right 1 or 2 seed anyways.
We could be an 8 that is assigned to 1 seed Baylor. Or a 7 with 2 seed Kentucky.
I want Baylor without hesitation.
Kentucky is the biggest nightmare for us. Unless they somehow move up to a 1(unlikely at this point) I basically wanna stay outta 7/10 to avoid that match up at all costs.
We always beat Kentucky in NCAAT....
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We went down 2 spots in the NET after winning and then up 2 spots after not playing.
We're 57% likely to beat DePaul, and probably even more likely to beat St. John's, but we're projected to only go 1-1 in those 2 games.
Can't beat this stuff for fun!
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We went down 2 spots in the NET after winning and then up 2 spots after not playing.
We're 57% likely to beat DePaul, and probably even more likely to beat St. John's, but we're projected to only go 1-1 in those 2 games.
Can't beat this stuff for fun!
61% vs. DePaul, 72% vs. SJU, per Kenpom.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of February 28,2022
AP
9. Cooley & Company
11.Nova
18. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU
Coaches
8. Cooley & Company
11.Nova
19. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU, The Hall, Creighton
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We went down 2 spots in the NET after winning and then up 2 spots after not playing.
We're 57% likely to beat DePaul, and probably even more likely to beat St. John's, but we're projected to only go 1-1 in those 2 games.
Can't beat this stuff for fun!
I think Illinois win helped
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We went down 2 spots in the NET after winning and then up 2 spots after not playing.
Didn't beat Butler by as much as we were supposed to which is the main reason we moved down.
We moved up because Illinois got a big win over Michigan which improved our score...and also dropped Michigan from above us to below us. DePaul also beat St. John's so that improved our score because we haven't played SJU yet (will correct once we do play them).
We're 57% likely to beat DePaul, and probably even more likely to beat St. John's, but we're projected to only go 1-1 in those 2 games.
Can't beat this stuff for fun!
We're actually projected as having a 61% chance at beating DePaul and a 72% chance of beating St. John's. The reason we are projected to go 1-1 is because you don't look at every game individually, you look at all the the remaining games together. To calculate that, you multiple 61% by 72% which gives you 43.9%. So KenPom is giving us 43.9% chance to go 2-0, a 10.9% chance of going 0-2, and a 45.2% chance of going 1-1.
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Marquette is 29th in Coaches Poll and 34th in AP Poll
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Didn't beat Butler by as much as we were supposed to which is the main reason we moved down.
We moved up because Illinois got a big win over Michigan which improved our score...and also dropped Michigan from above us to below us. DePaul also beat St. John's so that improved our score because we haven't played SJU yet (will correct once we do play them).
We're actually projected as having a 61% chance at beating DePaul and a 72% chance of beating St. John's. The reason we are projected to go 1-1 is because you don't look at every game individually, you look at all the the remaining games together. To calculate that, you multiple 61% by 72% which gives you 43.9%. So KenPom is giving us 43.9% chance to go 2-0, a 10.9% chance of going 0-2, and a 45.2% chance of going 1-1.
Not much though will it?
I mean we play DePaul for a second time on Wednesday then SJU on Saturday. So DePaul will still hold more weight.
By playing SJU finally all their results will finally have an actual impact though I guess.
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Unless we get up to a 6. It doesnt matter much.
8/9 sucks typically. But for us the second game is gonna be all about getting the right 1 or 2 seed anyways.
We could be an 8 that is assigned to 1 seed Baylor. Or a 7 with 2 seed Kentucky.
I want Baylor without hesitation.
Kentucky is the biggest nightmare for us. Unless they somehow move up to a 1(unlikely at this point) I basically wanna stay outta 7/10 to avoid that match up at all costs.
If you can't be a 6 the way I see it an 11 is just as good. If you win that game you play the 3. For the stat guys is there really that much of difference between the 6-11 seeds.
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If you can't be a 6 the way I see it an 11 is just as good. If you win that game you play the 3.
Yes of course.
But two things
1. your first round game is still much tougher than what youd ideally want
2. There is almost no way we end up a 11 seed. To get that we literally have to actively cheer for the team to lose their last 3...and even that leaves a 11 seed as unlikely. I for one will not be cheering for 3 losses.
So time to play for a 6. Otherwise pray we don't get a one of the top dogs with dominate bigs.
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We went down 2 spots in the NET after winning and then up 2 spots after not playing.
We're 57% likely to beat DePaul, and probably even more likely to beat St. John's, but we're projected to only go 1-1 in those 2 games.
Can't beat this stuff for fun!
if DeP beats us by double-figures, I won’t be surprised. Hopefully the ‘home’ crowd helps.
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Didn't beat Butler by as much as we were supposed to which is the main reason we moved down.
The spread was 8. MU won by 8.
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The spread was 8. MU won by 8.
That was the betting line. However if you look at the current Sagarin numbers (albeit this is now post game) we should have won by 11.5. Not sure if the other metrics also expected a larger win but I would not be surprised.
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The spread was 8. MU won by 8.
Pomeroy / Torvic expected a 11/10.8 point spread.
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I guess MU should have started playing defense sooner.
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if DeP beats us by double-figures, I won’t be surprised. Hopefully the ‘home’ crowd helps.
I think MU matches up pretty well with DePaul. They will kill us on the boards, but other than that we should have the advantages. They don't play defense well and on offense they are very ISO heavy. The way to beat MU seems to be attack our aggressive closeouts and rotate the ball, forcing MU to scramble. DePaul doesn't do a lot of that.
Most importantly, they don't defend the pick and roll very well.
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Truthfully, I cannot believe all of the comments about being worried about the DePaul game. Sure, you can lose any game that you play, but I think both sides of shown a body of work this season and I like ours better.
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Truthfully, I cannot believe all of the comments about being worried about the DePaul game. Sure, you can lose any game that you play, but I think both sides of shown a body of work this season and I like ours better.
Especially since we will have the home crowd…
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Goose - the COLE is still strong in some.
Truthfully, I cannot believe all of the comments about being worried about the DePaul game. Sure, you can lose any game that you play, but I think both sides of shown a body of work this season and I like ours better.
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Goose - the COLE is still strong in some.
Like this guy?
Savor the Butler win - the way they are playing, it may be the last win of this season.
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Like this guy?
Uh ooooh. Receipts.
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A win at DePaul and at home vs. StJ would be quad 2 wins for us based on the NET Rankings today. Then if Seton Hall can win big vs. GTown and beat Creighton on the road, then our home victory against the Hall earlier in the year should become a Quad 1. SH is a 32 NET rank now and home wins vs. 30 NET rank or better are Quad 1's. So before the BET we can pick up 2 quad 2 wins and a quad 1. Of course, the Creighton away loss could drop for a Quad 1 to a 2, so....
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That's not COLE... I have much higher expectations than how they are current playing. They have been playing like crap for long stretches, and they may not win again this year unless they improve. I expect them to improve.
Like this guy?
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Got our NCAA ticket email today ordered tickets
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That's not COLE... I have much higher expectations than how they are current playing. They have been playing like crap for long stretches, and they may not win again this year unless they improve. I expect them to improve.
Sounds like COLE to me. Welcome to the COLE club dude!
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Truthfully, I cannot believe all of the comments about being worried about the DePaul game. Sure, you can lose any game that you play, but I think both sides of shown a body of work this season and I like ours better.
Goose - the COLE is still strong in some.
It's not just COLE. We have some folks here who don't like Shaka, who are purely fair-weather fans, or who are just chronic Eeyores. Sad that some can't enjoy a team and/or a season.
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Big East NET ranking as as of games of February 28,2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
17 17 UConn
25 25 Providence
32 32 Seton Hall
34 34 Marquette
35 36 Xavier
67 67 Creighton
75 75 St. John's
105 105 DePaul
126 126 Butler
197 197 Georgetown
March 1 Team Sheets. Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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That's not COLE... I have much higher expectations than how they are current playing. They have been playing like crap for long stretches, and they may not win again this year unless they improve. I expect them to improve.
So fermented COLEslaw?
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
17 17 UConn
25 25 Providence
33 32 Seton Hall
34 34 Marquette
36 35 Xavier
66 67 Creighton
74 75 St. John's
105 105 DePaul
125 126 Butler
194 197 Georgetown
March 2 Team Sheets. Marquette is 34
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 2, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
18 17 UConn
24 25 Providence
34 33 Seton Hall
38 34 Marquette
39 36 Xavier
62 66 Creighton
73 74 St. John's
100 105 DePaul
125 125 Butler
192 194 Georgetown
March 3 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 2, 2022
New Old
7 7 Villanova
18 17 UConn
24 25 Providence
34 33 Seton Hall
38 34 Marquette
39 36 Xavier
62 66 Creighton
73 74 St. John's
100 105 DePaul
125 125 Butler
192 194 Georgetown
March 3 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
Arby's
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7 7 Villanova
18 18 UConn
24 24 Providence
33 34 Seton Hall
36 38 Marquette
37 39 Xavier
60 62 Creighton
72 73 St. John's
102 100 DePaul
125 125 Butler
193 192 Georgetown
March 4 Team Sheets. Marquette is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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7 7 Villanova
18 18 UConn
24 24 Providence
33 33 Seton Hall
36 36 Marquette
37 37 Xavier
62 60 Creighton
72 72 St. John's
102 102 DePaul
125 125 Butler
193 193 Georgetown
March 5 Team Sheets. Marquette is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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7 7 Villanova
18 18 UConn
24 24 Providence
33 33 Seton Hall
36 36 Marquette
37 37 Xavier
62 60 Creighton
72 72 St. John's
102 102 DePaul
125 125 Butler
193 193 Georgetown
March 5 Team Sheets. Marquette is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
It’s pretty wild that Creighton may finish in 3rd place today when you look at those numbers.
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It’s pretty wild that Creighton may finish in 3rd place today when you look at those numbers.
I honestly might give McDermott BE COY
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I honestly might give McDermott BE COY
He owns every BE coach?
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Nova is doing what superior programs do this time of year - comprehensively dominating bad competition. This is exactly what Nova would have done at DePaul on Wednesday night. I would be thrilled beyond belief if Shaka could turn MU into the next Villanova! We have just as many resources. Why not?
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Nova is doing what superior programs do this time of year - comprehensively dominating bad competition. This is exactly what Nova would have done at DePaul on Wednesday night. I would be thrilled beyond belief if Shaka could turn MU into the next Villanova! We have just as many resources. Why not?
Lol come on.
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Nova is doing what superior programs do this time of year - comprehensively dominating bad competition. This is exactly what Nova would have done at DePaul on Wednesday night. I would be thrilled beyond belief if Shaka could turn MU into the next Villanova! We have just as many resources. Why not?
I’m willing to give Shaka more than one year to get to that point.
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I’m willing to give Shaka more than one year to get to that point.
No, NC or bust and bring next guy in.
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No, NC or bust and bring next guy in.
Agree with this analysis
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No, NC or bust and bring next guy in.
COLE otherwise, yo!
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COLE otherwise, yo!
You know it!
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Nova decisively routing Butler on the road.
High quality road win for The Hall against Creighton
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Marquette’s NET is 37 Today
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Marquette’s NET is 37 Today
Xavier passes us in NET. Moral or the story, its better to beat a horrible team by 22, than beat a decent team by 8. Oh, and for those smarter than me (which is most), can you explain how Va Tech is higher than us in the NET?
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Xavier passes us in NET. Moral or the story, its better to beat a horrible team by 22, than beat a decent team by 8. Oh, and for those smarter than me (which is most), can you explain how Va Tech is higher than us in the NET?
Your first sentence answers your question. VT blew out their cupcakes by 30 to 40 each. Plus all their losses but one have been by reasonable margins
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Your first sentence answers your question. VT blew out their cupcakes by 30 to 40 each. Plus all their losses but one have been by reasonable margins
Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.
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Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.
It doesn't, that's why there's a committee and why VT will be seeded below us (assuming they don't do something amazing in the acc tournament). It's also why I think we end up seeded as a 7. We got our NET without blowing out 6 cupcakes and I think that helps our cause
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I think we end up a 7 as well.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 5 , 2022
New Old
6 7 Villanova
19 18 UConn
26 24 Providence
31 33 Seton Hall
35 37 Xavier
37 36 Marquette
65 62 Creighton
73 72 St. John's
101 102 DePaul
128 125 Butler
197 193 Georgetown
March 6 Team Sheets. Marquette is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.
You'll find common cause with Badger fans. But personally, I think letting sub-150 Georgia Tech, Nicholls, and Illinois State stay within 4 points says a lot about team quality, or rather lack thereof, as well.
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You'll find common cause with Badger fans. But personally, I think letting sub-150 Georgia Tech, Nicholls, and Illinois State stay within 4 points says a lot about team quality, or rather lack thereof, as well.
Great teams run up the score
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Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.
It is well known that the NET takes into account winning and losing margins, part of the whole equation, plus how those cupcakes do during the season also part of the equation. Whether you like it or not it is what it is.
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It is well known that the NET takes into account winning and losing margins, part of the whole equation, plus how those cupcakes do during the season also part of the equation. Whether you like it or not it is what it is.
Does it? According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "
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Does it? According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "
It’s in the adjusted eff margin. The scoring margin that went away had a cap on it
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Does DePaul have a shot at the NIT?
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Does DePaul have a shot at the NIT?
Not sure but the announcers on the FOX UCONN DePaul said DePaul a shot at the NIT
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Mar 6, 2022
• Marquette finished the regular season yesterday by beating St Johns 85-77.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #41 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
Regular Season Final Report
Final Overall Record 19-11
Final Big East Record 11-8
Predictive Rank #41
Big East Tournament Projections
Odds For Marquette To Reach Round
Quarter 100.0%
Semi 58.7%
Championship 28.2%
Winner 9.0%
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 9%
Projected Seed 8
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Does it? According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/)
"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "
Yes, that's gone. But the NET is mostly based on adj efficiency margin. It's not a 1 to 1 comparison but in general, the larger the scoring margin, the larger the adj efficiency margin. So teams are rewarded for running up the score on cupcakes.
Brew is correct though, if you can only beat your cupcakes by five, that shouldn't be counted the same as someone who beats the same cupcakes by 40. But IMHO there's too much value given in blowout wins over cupcakes
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 6, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 19 UConn
26 26 Providence
32 31 Seton Hall
36 35 Xavier
38 37 Marquette
66 65 Creighton
73 73 St. John's
101 101 DePaul
129 128 Butler
198 197 Georgetown
March 7 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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From the net rankings, it appears Marquette is really significantly better than Creighton and gets the win on Thursday.
I feel it is a good matchup for Marquette. Hopefully we come out as a focused group on a mission.
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Yes, that's gone. But the NET is mostly based on adj efficiency margin. It's not a 1 to 1 comparison but in general, the larger the scoring margin, the larger the adj efficiency margin. So teams are rewarded for running up the score on cupcakes.
Brew is correct though, if you can only beat your cupcakes by five, that shouldn't be counted the same as someone who beats the same cupcakes by 40. But IMHO there's too much value given in blowout wins over cupcakes
There are fixes they could go with. Make the model regressive, so that your efficiency margins have less impact the wider they get. Beating a team by 10 is good, beating a team by 20 is better, beating a team by 30+ is best, but the difference between 10-20 and 20-30 are not the same, and a regressive model would address that.
Or they could use a formula like analytically final, which Haslametrics uses. Once the margin gets so big that there simply isn't enough time for the other team to come back, his model no longer takes that data into account. That would eliminate a lot of the garbage time comeback or running up the score volume.
They could also use game control, which determines how thoroughly a team is in control, and compare that to strength of schedule. So if you lead by 15+ the entire way and weather a late comeback to win by 9, it will be viewed more favorably than if you lead by 3-5 the entire way but score 10 points from the line in the last minute to win by 15.
There are a lot of possible solutions, but I will stress that NET is still primarily a sorting tool and not the be-all end-all of selection (which is why Virginia Tech needs an autobid to get in) and it's still way better than RPI.
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I just like shaking my fist at the clouds. We are idle: we drop 1 spot. Madison loses at home to a pathetic Nebraska team, they drop 1 spot. The NCAA Net is mad at us for Al turning down an NCAA bid.
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Big East Poll Rankings March 7,2022
AP
8.Nova
11. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
8.Nova
10.Cooley& Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, MU, Creighton
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Marquette is 4-2 combined against Providence Villanova Illinois and UW. Marquette is 4-2 against the leaders of the Big East and Big Ten.
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That was then. It all depends on how we play now.
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Big East Poll Rankings March 7,2022
AP
8.Nova
11. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
8.Nova
10.Cooley& Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, MU, Creighton
Huge mistake by those voters. We are now ready to roll----iiiitttts tourney time.
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NET - the enemy of the walk-on
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 7, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
19 18 UConn
26 26 Providence
32 32 Seton Hall
36 36 Xavier
38 38 Marquette
66 66 Creighton
72 73 St. John's
101 101 DePaul
129 129 Butler
199 198 Georgetown
March 8 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 8, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 19 UConn
26 26 Providence
32 32 Seton Hall
36 36 Xavier
38 38 Marquette
66 66 Creighton
72 72 St. John's
101 101 DePaul
128 129 Butler
198 199 Georgetown
March 9 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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I believe Butler has to stay under 135for us to avoid a Q3 loss. So hopefully they can lose efficiently or get an efficient win or two in the BET.
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I believe Butler has to stay under 135for us to avoid a Q3 loss. So hopefully they can lose efficiently or get an efficient win or two in the BET.
This is correct, and it might make a difference. For the most part, the top-16 are set pretty early. They might move teams a little bit, but because the bracket will hinge on where those teams go, that's one of the first steps. The Selection Committee will also have a good idea who who is getting bids at the bubble. That will be mostly today and tomorrow. The biggest place for movement is in the 6-10 range, where we squarely sit. Keeping no bad losses and adding a quality win or two (Creighton and PC/X would be added to our Q1+2 total) wouldn't hurt.
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This is correct, and it might make a difference. For the most part, the top-16 are set pretty early. They might move teams a little bit, but because the bracket will hinge on where those teams go, that's one of the first steps. The Selection Committee will also have a good idea who who is getting bids at the bubble. That will be mostly today and tomorrow. The biggest place for movement is in the 6-10 range, where we squarely sit. Keeping no bad losses and adding a quality win or two (Creighton and PC/X would be added to our Q1+2 total) wouldn't hurt.
Nice to see you getting to work early this morning Brew, keep it up until Sunday’s finish line!
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Nice to see you getting to work early this morning Brew, keep it up until Sunday’s finish line!
I’m thinking Brew’s finish line extends well past Sunday.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 9,2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
18 18 UConn
26 26 Providence
34 32 Seton Hall
37 38 Marquette
40 36 Xavier
66 66 Creighton
67 72 St. John's
102 101 DePaul
120 128 Butler
193 198 Georgetown
March 10 Team Sheets. Marquette is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 10, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
17 18 UConn
26 26 Providence
36 34 Seton Hall
40 40 Xavier
42 37 Marquette
64 66 Creighton
66 67 St. John's
103 102 DePaul
120 120 Butler
193 193 Georgetown
March 11 Team Sheets. Marquette is 42
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Mar 11, 2022
• Marquette has been eliminated from the Big East tournament due to their 74-63 loss to Creighton.
• We currently rank Marquette as the #44 team in the country, and the #7 team in the Big East.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 0%
Projected Seed 9
• Marquette is a lock to make the NCAA tournament.
• We project the Golden Eagles with a 12% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen and a 1% chance to reach the Final Four.
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1% chance to reach the Final Four.
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/200.gif)
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Is KenPom broken - Wisconsin is 24-6, co-big 10 champs and yet only #31 in Pomeroy?
Any previous year, he would have them in top 3 and keep them in the top 3 for the next 4 years regardless of their actual W/L...
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Is KenPom broken - Wisconsin is 24-6, co-big 10 champs and yet only #31 in Pomeroy?
Any previous year, he would have them in top 3 and keep them in the top 3 for the next 4 years regardless of their actual W/L...
Lack of blowout wins, playing at a faster pace than usual and playing worse defense than usual. They’re basically the Providence of the Big 14. Real shooting % is terrible, too, so the offensive numbers aren’t as good. Take Davis off the team and I’m not sure they’re not on the bubble.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 11, 2022
New Old
6 6 Villanova
17 17 UConn
33 26 Providence
37 36 Seton Hall
40 40 Xavier
41 42 Marquette
55 64 Creighton
69 69 St. John's
103 103 DePaul
121 120 Butler
193 193 Georgetown
March 12 Team Sheets. Marquette is 41
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Lack of blowout wins, playing at a faster pace than usual and playing worse defense than usual. They’re basically the Providence of the Big 14. Real shooting % is terrible, too, so the offensive numbers aren’t as good. Take Davis off the team and I’m not sure they’re not on the bubble they're an NIT team.
FIFY
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 12, 2022
New Old
7 6 Villanova
16 17 UConn
33 33 Providence
37 37 Seton Hall
41 40 Xavier
43 41 Marquette
55 55 Creighton
69 69 St. John's
103 103 DePaul
121 121 Butler
194 193 Georgetown
March 13 Team Sheets. Marquette is 43
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Mar 14, 2022
• The NCAA tournament bracket has been announced!
• Marquette is the #9 seed in the East Region.
• Heading into the tournament, we rank the Golden Eagles as the #44 team in the country.
• Based on our power ratings, and the tournament bracket, we think Marquette has less than a 1% chance to win the NCAA tournament.
NCAA Tournament Projections
NCAA Tournament Round Odds For Marquette To Reach Round
Round 2 38.1%
Sweet 16 11.6%
Elite 8 4.1%
Final 4 1.2%
Championship 0.3%
Winner 0.1%
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TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo
Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Mar 14, 2022
• The NCAA tournament bracket has been announced!
• Marquette is the #9 seed in the East Region.
• Heading into the tournament, we rank the Golden Eagles as the #44 team in the country.
• Based on our power ratings, and the tournament bracket, we think Marquette has less than a 1% chance to win the NCAA tournament.
NCAA Tournament Projections
NCAA Tournament Round Odds For Marquette To Reach Round
Round 2 38.1%
Sweet 16 11.6%
Elite 8 4.1%
Final 4 1.2%
Championship 0.3%
Winner 0.1%
So you're saying there's a chance.
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Winner 0.1%
(https://acegif.com/wp-content/uploads/upgifsok/soyouretellingmetheresachance-3.gif)
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 13, 2022
New Old
8 7 Villanova
17 16 U Conn
32 33 Providence
37 37 Seton Hall
40 41 Xavier
42 43 Marquette
55 55 Creighton
69 69 St. John's
102 103 DePaul
121 121 Butler
193 194 Georgetown
March 14 Team Sheets. Marquette is 42
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 13, 2022
New Old
8 7 Villanova
17 16 U Conn
32 33 Providence
37 37 Seton Hall
40 41 Xavier
42 43 Marquette
55 55 Creighton
69 69 St. John's
102 103 DePaul
121 121 Butler
193 194 Georgetown
March 14 Team Sheets. Marquette is 42
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
This should help with our seeding
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Big East Poll Rankings March 14, 2022
AP
6.Nova
13. Cooley & Company
21. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, The Hall
Coaches
5. Nova
13. Cooley & Company
21. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, The Hall, MU
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 13, 2022
New Old
8 7 Villanova
17 16 U Conn
32 33 Providence
37 37 Seton Hall
40 41 Xavier
42 43 Marquette
55 55 Creighton
69 69 St. John's
102 103 DePaul
121 121 Butler
193 194 Georgetown
March 14 Team Sheets. Marquette is 42
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets
I know the NET rankings are based on statistics, but it makes no sense we are 44 and the team that beat us three times is 55.
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I know the NET rankings are based on statistics, but it makes no sense we are 44 and the team that beat us three times is 55.
That's because we should have beaten them at least twice.
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I know the NET rankings are based on statistics, but it makes no sense we are 44 and the team that beat us three times is 55.
Have to imagine this is teal
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I know the NET rankings are based on statistics, but it makes no sense we are 44 and the team that beat us three times is 55.
It makes no sense that a team we swept 8th and we are 44th.
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Big East Poll Rankings March 14, 2022
AP
6.Nova
13. Cooley & Company
21. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, The Hall
Coaches
5. Nova
13. Cooley & Company
21. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, The Hall, MU
Marquette is 36th Coaches Poll
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Marquette is 36th Coaches Poll
Okay...I get this, but they aren't. There are only 25 spots. Even if we received a vote or two, that doesn't equate to placement. There are only 25 spots, not 26, or 30, or 36.
This is why. If the entire panel was four voters and their ballots look like this...
1: 23-Boise St 24-Marquette 25-Colorado St
2: 23-Texas 24-Colorado St 25-Boise State
3: 23-Boise St 24-Colorado State 25-Texas
4: 23-Colorado St 24-Texas 25-Virginia Tech
It would be easy to say "well, Marquette is ranked 26th ahead of teams like Virginia Tech because they got two votes to Va Tech's one." But if the ballot went to 26 and ballots 1, 2, and 3 all had Va Tech at 26 while Marquette didn't show up on any of them, suddenly the Hokies are ahead.
Marquette isn't 36th. They are unranked but receiving votes. Until the ballot goes to 36 teams there are not 36 positions, there are 25. If that's not enough, petition the AP and Coaches to go to 30, or 36, or 50. Until that changes, we're just another unranked team.
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Final Big East NET rankings as of games of April 4, 2022
New Old
6 8 Villanova
18 17 UConn
24 32 Providence
37 40 Xavier
48 37 Seton Hall
50 42 Marquette
51 55 Creighton
64 69 St. John's
103 102 DePaul
117 121 Butler
194 193 Georgetown
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Thanks for your work on this all year!
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Final Big East NET rankings as of games of April 4, 2022
New Old
6 8 Villanova
18 17 UConn
24 32 Providence
37 40 Xavier
48 37 Seton Hall
50 42 Marquette
51 55 Creighton
64 69 St. John's
103 102 DePaul
117 121 Butler
194 193 Georgetown
So does this mean Georgetown gets relegated DOWN to the B1G and Purdue gets elevated to the Big East?
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How many out there thought we would be top 50 Net this year? I thought this would be a rebuild and we would not be in the tourney. Hope to see a step up next year.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of April 5,2022.
Coaches -Final
4. Nova
13. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes:
U-Conn, Creighton , X, The Hall
AP- Final Poll was at end of regular Season
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Thanks for your work Herman.
(https://media.tenor.com/images/07f9dea83cecda143de5e1f5be57a662/tenor.gif)
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9-9-9:
I join others in thanking you for providing this all season. Very helpful.