Do we REALLY want to beat UW?

[GGGG]

Have you watched them play? They’re bad at basketball. If we hit our shots, it’s not going to be close. If we don’t, it will.

If we hit our shots?  Well no kidding.  But I'm not convinced that is going to happen.  UW isn't a bad defensive team.

Have I watched them?  A couple times.  They have had a couple bad outings, but they have also been competitive in nearly every game - including games v. teams much better than MU.

[GrimmReaper33]

Have you watched them play? They’re bad at basketball. If we hit our shots, it’s not going to be close. If we don’t, it will.

Ken Pom has the Badgers as 5 point favorites and they're ranked 17 spots higher than MU in his rankings.  Obviously they aren't nearly as good as they were the past 4 years (as expected) but they're not as bad as their record indicates.  Of the 6 losses, 2 were neutral site games against top 25 teams and 2 were true road games- one of which at top 15 Virginia.  I would like to think MU would have at least another W or two against their schedule, but I'm not so sure they would.

A quick look at UW's numbers shows they haven't shot the 3 well but there are some guys capable of hitting them.  I also don't like the thought of Heldt trying to guard Happ or Theo getting 5 fouls on Happ in about 10 minutes.  I see the game as a toss up.  A good thing for MU is UW has been in a lot of close games so far and seem to choke them away down the stretch due to inexperience.

[GGGG]

Ken Pom has the Badgers as 5 point favorites and they're ranked 17 spots higher than MU in his rankings.  Obviously they aren't nearly as good as they were the past 4 years (as expected) but they're not as bad as their record indicates.  Of the 6 losses, 2 were neutral site games against top 25 teams and 2 were true road games- one of which at top 15 Virginia.  I would like to think MU would have at least another W or two against their schedule, but I'm not so sure they would.

A quick look at UW's numbers shows they haven't shot the 3 well but there are some guys capable of hitting them.  I also don't like the thought of Heldt trying to guard Happ or Theo getting 5 fouls on Happ in about 10 minutes.  I see the game as a toss up.  A good thing for MU is UW has been in a lot of close games so far and seem to choke them away down the stretch due to inexperience.

Exactly.  It's not as though MU has been stellar so far either.  Some good games.  Some poor ones.  Haven't played a true road game either.

I think this is going to be a very frustrating game.  Not saying MU can't win by any means, but if people think we are going to do what OSU did last week, they are mistaken.

[brewcity77]

Ken Pom has the Badgers as 5 point favorites and they're ranked 17 spots higher than MU in his rankings.  Obviously they aren't nearly as good as they were the past 4 years (as expected) but they're not as bad as their record indicates.  Of the 6 losses, 2 were neutral site games against top 25 teams and 2 were true road games- one of which at top 15 Virginia.  I would like to think MU would have at least another W or two against their schedule, but I'm not so sure they would.

A quick look at UW's numbers shows they haven't shot the 3 well but there are some guys capable of hitting them.  I also don't like the thought of Heldt trying to guard Happ or Theo getting 5 fouls on Happ in about 10 minutes.  I see the game as a toss up.  A good thing for MU is UW has been in a lot of close games so far and seem to choke them away down the stretch due to inexperience.

All of this. No one is saying this is unwinnable, but anyone that thinks MU going into the Kohl and breezing out with a comfortable victory is a foregone conclusion might want to dial their expectations back a bit.

[muguru]

Exactly.  It's not as though MU has been stellar so far either.  Some good games.  Some poor ones.  Haven't played a true road game either.

I think this is going to be a very frustrating game.  Not saying MU can't win by any means, but if people think we are going to do what OSU did last week, they are mistaken.

I don't think anyone thinks they're going to do what OSU did to them... but if you remember last year Happ got two quick fouls in the first half..that happens again tomorrow..it's curtains for UW. Koenig aint walking back through that door.

[brewcity77]

I don't think anyone thinks they're going to do what OSU did to them... but if you remember last year Happ got two quick fouls in the first half..that happens again tomorrow..it's curtains for UW. Koenig aint walking back through that door.

Happ got two quick fouls in the first half and they still beat us. Probably a 99% chance that doesn't happen again tomorrow. And if two of their shooters shoot like they are capable (say Davison and Trice) they won't need Koenig, especially if we only have an average day from deep.

[muguru]

 
good4buck 

Posts 5,810

 

 







 Today, 00:55 #67 

Davison tweeks his  shoulder again in practice, Trice held out with foot injury, King sick. All two days before Marquette. can’t this team catch a break?

[Dr. Blackheart]

I don't think anyone thinks they're going to do what OSU did to them... but if you remember last year Happ got two quick fouls in the first half..that happens again tomorrow..it's curtains for UW. Koenig aint walking back through that door.

Nor is Luke walking back in through MU’s door. Holtmann did the same thing he did to Happ as Butler did to Luke at MU.

With UW’s slow tempo, a home crowd, and MUs piss poor defense, this will be close with out offense. Classic matchup: Offense versus defense.

I think MU can win but it will be uphill. How can we stop Happ and the shooter who has the career game against us?  And how can UW slow down the game and stop our shooters?

Sam is key.  Last year he was shut down and Gard wants to keep showing the Hausers a lesson.  I think Sam responds big time. This is a blood game.

[StillWarriors]

UW's record puts added pressure on this game for MU. Looks far more like a game we "should" win than anyone would have thought coming into the season, but winning a rivalry game on the road, especially there, is never an easy task. Win would be a great boost for MU; a loss would not mean we suck or the sky is falling, though I'm sure that would be a common narrative should that occur.

[onepost]

I am not confident.
-Kohl hole worth 15 pts.

FIFTEEN points??  That seems a little excessive.  I think home court is usually worth a couple possessions so 5/6, but the fact that we'll have to rely on 3 frosh/Sacar in this moment is concerning.
Just means it'll be vital to get off to a good start, but my confidence comes from the fact that our "Big 3" are our most experienced guys who won't be timid in the slightest.  It'll just be important for the young guys to get rebounds, play good D, and do the little things.

[muguru]

FIFTEEN points??  That seems a little excessive.  I think home court is usually worth a couple possessions so 5/6, but the fact that we'll have to rely on 3 frosh/Sacar in this moment is concerning.
Just means it'll be vital to get off to a good start, but my confidence comes from the fact that our "Big 3" are our most experienced guys who won't be timid in the slightest. It'll just be important for the young guys to get rebounds, play good D, and do the little things.

This...if they just do the things they are there for, to be glue guys and do the little things, MU will be fine..Now, if they are jacking up shots...that could be trouble. I wouldn't mind it at all if Elliott/Cain don't take a single perimeter jumpshot in this game..Leave that to the big 3. Move the ball like they did against Vermont and MU will win.

[MU82]

Ken Pom has the Badgers as 5 point favorites and they're ranked 17 spots higher than MU in his rankings.

Might as well not even bother playing the game. Darn. I thought we had a shot in this one.

Kohl hole worth 15 pts.

.

Obviously, we were 17 points better than F%cky in 2015.

[bilsu]

Have you watched them play? They’re bad at basketball. If we hit our shots, it’s not going to be close. If we don’t, it will.

Have you watched us play?
We are a bad defensive team and probably will be outscored at the center position by 20 points.

[Loose Cannon]

any more dangerous than the others have? At a certain point losses no longer make you dangerous they show how skilled you are and beat you down mentally

You're Right, But that "Certain Point" is not a constant for each Game for the overall season, I agree but one game things can happen.  Ask ND.
Sometimes the team with a little added emotion can overcome teams with a "We got This based on Skills" attitude. 

[skianth16]

Have you watched us play?
We are a bad defensive team and probably will be outscored at the center position by 20 points.

Both points are true / probably true. But we have better guards, and we've shot the ball better than they have so far this year. And believe it or not, we average the same number of rebounds as UW, even though they have an All American center. (I'm assuming this is more based on their slow style and a limited number of possessions per game, but I'll take whatever encouragement I can get heading into this weekend!) And as much as I do worry about Theo getting himself into foul trouble against Happ, the silver lining there is that Happ is one of their worst FT shooters. So maybe letting Theo loose a little bit wouldn't be such a band thing.

[Dawson Rental]

Where does your lack of confidence come from?? Okay, it's in Madison..I get that, but last time in Madison, UW had a MUCH better team, and MU wasn't as good, guess who won?? Happ?? One guy will NOT beat you...I don't care if he scores 40 by himself. As long as no one else goes off, MU wins it. Honestly, what overwhelming factors do you see that UW has in this game?? MU is the more talented team, so if both teams play their best game, MU wins. Both teams play their worst games...MU wins.

I'm asking an honest question...I'm not asking for "IF this happens, or THAT happens(like MU not hitting shots). How/where do you see UW having an overwhelming advantage in this game, that MU will lose the game?? UW is bigger, yes...but they can't shoot. They don't have the quickness on the perimeter to contain Rowsey and Markus...what am I missing??

Have you watched them play? They’re bad at basketball. If we hit our shots, it’s not going to be close. If we don’t, it will.

Reality Check: Current KemPom rankings

Wisconsin                    47
Marquette                    63

Also, home advantage is generally considered to be worth 4 points or so to the home team.

[muguru]

I dont know..I just get really frustrated this time of year, for this game and reading so many comments from fellow MU fans that imply if MU wins..it would be some sort of stunning upset. I dont get that..it would not be David Slaying Goliath like so many here always seem to imply it would be...have some faith.

[Goose]

muguru

If MU does not win tomorrow I would be very surprised. Barring Happ scoring 50 points, this is a game we should win. Quite honestly, while we may be a slightly above average team this year, IMO the Badgers are horrible. This should be a W for MU, providing the little guys and Hauser make some shots.

[muguru]

muguru

If MU does not win tomorrow I would be very surprised. Barring Happ scoring 50 points, this is a game we should win. Quite honestly, while we may be a slightly above average team this year, IMO the Badgers are horrible. This should be a W for MU, providing the little guys and Hauser make some shots.

Exactly! And if they win it comfortably, so many here will be back after the game expressing their disbelief and shock that MU won so easily.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

It COULD mean Gard gets pushed out sooner, and MU has a good thing going with him captaining that red and white Lusitania in Madison...Oh, well.

Load torpedo tube 77!

Always root for the blue & gold no matter the Wisconsin situation.
Beat Bucky!

[GGGG]

I dont know..I just get really frustrated this time of year, for this game and reading so many comments from fellow MU fans that imply if MU wins..it would be some sort of stunning upset. I dont get that..it would not be David Slaying Goliath like so many here always seem to imply it would be...have some faith.

No one has said it would be a stunning upset.  I simply said I don't understand the confidence.  UW is having a down year no doubt.  So is MU.  Both teams have significant deficiencies. 

[brewcity77]

Wisconsin has lost some games, but horrible? That might be an overstatement. Consider...

• Wisconsin was leading Xavier with 2:25 to play.
• Wisconsin trailed Baylor by 2 with 2:20 to play after trailing by 19 earlier.
• Wisconsin was tied with UCLA before Holiday's layup with 0:01 left.
• Wisconsin was leading Temple by 1 with 2:26 to play.

Three of those are ranked teams and Temple came in the favorite. Ohio State and Virginia cleaned their clocks, but Wisconsin's problems are mostly in the last 3 minutes of games. They have been as good as their opponents before that and as a young team it's not that surprising to see they struggle late. In some game, they will put that last 3 minutes together and get a win.

Per Pomeroy, Wisconsin's best win (@ Penn State) is better than our best win (vs Vermont) and their worst loss (vs Ohio State) is better than our worst loss (vs Georgia). They've fallen victim to some late game heroics and are ranked #344 in luck out of 351 teams. They are definitely better than their record.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Exactly! And if they win it comfortably, so many here will be back after the game expressing their disbelief and shock that MU won so easily.

I doubt we will be shocked.  Both teams are pedestrian overall, at best. Hell, most here picked MU for 7th in the BE. Shocking is the blow out predicted. I hope to be wrong.

I think MU has the best player on the floor (M2N). But, MU has no answer for Happ (dude should have gone pro). How Wojo counters is the question versus UW taking the air out of the ball at home.  This will be a game of attrition with the best slogger winning. When you don’t have the talent, you slow it down which is what Gard will do.

Blow out? Yes, I will be shocked.

[MerrittsMustache]

Howard will do his thing. Happ will do his thing. MU needs both Rowsey and Hauser to play well and for Heldt to stay out of foul trouble and make things somewhat difficult for Happ. First true road game for the frosh Cain, Elliott and John - that could be tough. Wisco has an ugly record but they've lost to some solid teams. They don't have much offensively besides Happ, but I'm guessing that one of their no-names will have a big day given MU's subpar D. In the end, home cooking wins out.

Wisco 76, Marquette 73

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We are better than Wisconsin this year. I am confident about that.

I am never confident playing in the Kohl Hole...even if we we've won 2/3 of the last times we've played there.

Based on what they've done this season, the obvious move seems to be doubling Happ and letting them miss three pointers. But while Trice has sucked this season, he did shoot 42% from deep last season. Pritzel, King, and Reuvers have struggled so far but they seem to be capable of getting hot. Davison has actually started pretty hot shooting 44%. Hopefully this isn't the game where their shooter's find their stroke.

Bucky uses an 8 man rotation. They could create some mismatches by throwing a second big out there with Happ but they rarely do that. True freshman Nate Reuvers has emerged as the last man in the rotation and Happ's back up. King and Pritzl backup the other four positions. The weak point in the starting 5 is Aleem Ford. Think of a poor man's Vitto Brown. When Ford needs to sit, the Badgers get very small (minus Happ) because 6-5 Khalil Iverson plays the 4. Iverson is a wrecking ball cutting to the bucket but has limited shooting range. He has 6 career 3PMs as a junior and is 0-8 to start the season. Happ loves finding him on the cut when he's getting double teamed. Trice, King, Pritzl, and Davison are your typical Wisconsin guards. Like to shoot from outside, limited penetration ability.

I think sticking Hauser on Ford and then having him hard double any time Happ touches the ball is the best way to go. Iverson is a bully but he has a loose handle and not the greatest wingspan or height. I think a combo of Hauser, Cain, and Elliott could really frustrate him into mistakes. If the offense is stalling, go small and stick Hauser on Happ. I trust our ability to score with Happ a way from the basket more than I distrust Sam covering Happ. This might be the one game where a zone could be the best move. Wouldn't be surprised to see it pop up.

Real area of weakness for Bucky is PG play. Trice has not been effective in the roll. Against Temple, Happ actually brought the ball up a few times because I think he was the only one with any basketball IQ. But it's still Wisconsin. Despite bad PG play, they don't turn it over often.