Conference Expansion in Hindsight

[GGGG]

Some questions...

1. If they could do it over again, would the ACC take UCF and USF instead of Syracuse, BC or Pitt? 

2. Would the B12 drop two members if it could add those two schools?  (Without PR or political repercussions.)  Say Iowa State and Kansas State?

My answers are yes and yes.

I think the B12 would be wise to snatch up both of them.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The big 12 grabbing USF and UCF over cincinatti would be a huge blow to UC.

[cheebs09]

Some questions...

1. If they could do it over again, would the ACC take UCF and USF instead of Syracuse, BC or Pitt? 

2. Would the B12 drop two members if it could add those two schools?  (Without PR or political repercussions.)  Say Iowa State and Kansas State?

My answers are yes and yes.

I think the B12 would be wise to snatch up both of them.

Is there a reason the Big 12 would need to drop 2 teams? Is it to not dilute the money by distributing amongst 10 instead of 12?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is there a reason the Big 12 would need to drop 2 teams? Is it to not dilute the money by distributing amongst 10 instead of 12?

Not sure if i completely understand it,  but i believe the tv deal that the B12 has includes a clause that requires the broadcaster to fork over more money if they add two more teams. Remember the last farce of potential B12 expansion? The network paid them more money NOT to expand.

I think the B12 is around until the GOR expires (2022 i think?). The conference will get divided up between the other P5 conferences. I think conference expansion is on hold until then.

[GGGG]

Is there a reason the Big 12 would need to drop 2 teams? Is it to not dilute the money by distributing amongst 10 instead of 12?

I was speaking in hypotheticals.

[Benny B]

Is there a reason the Big 12 would need to drop 2 teams? Is it to not dilute the money by distributing amongst 10 instead of 12?

The Big 12 had enough trouble convincing Texas to take their fair share during realignment, and so the Big 12 is not going to want to reopen that can of worms.

[GooooMarquette]

Some questions...

1. If they could do it over again, would the ACC take UCF and USF instead of Syracuse, BC or Pitt? 

2. Would the B12 drop two members if it could add those two schools?  (Without PR or political repercussions.)  Say Iowa State and Kansas State?

My answers are yes and yes.

I think the B12 would be wise to snatch up both of them.

1. Ask the ACC presidents.

2. Ask Texas.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Remember after the NBE announced their split and Notre Dame tried to barge ahead in line in their quest to park their non-revenue sports for a year or two?  And we told them to take a number and wait in line? 

In my opinion, only Louisville acted in a professional manner during that exit. Unfortunately, all that wealth went to their various heads.

Greed changes things. The Gaining Conferences except the B1G are generally not better off nor is ESPN with the jumpers. They do have higher revenues but so are the fallout costs. Geographic rivalries were blown apart causing further live attendance and audience declines.  It is a thin fabric.

[StillAWarrior]

...only Louisville acted in a professional manner...

I can't recall ever seeing those words used in that sequence.

[Herman Cain]

Some questions...

1. If they could do it over again, would the ACC take UCF and USF instead of Syracuse, BC or Pitt? 

2. Would the B12 drop two members if it could add those two schools?  (Without PR or political repercussions.)  Say Iowa State and Kansas State?

My answers are yes and yes.

I think the B12 would be wise to snatch up both of them.

The ACC has an academic  snob factor that would prohibit them from taking UCF or USF.  The school the ACC pines for is Vanderbilt.

Big 12 has  less of an academic snob factor but would not drop two of its founding members that have very large alumni base  .Big 12 decided not to expand and turned down Houston, despite intense lobbying from wealthy people.  So while I agree with You that Big 12 would be wise to snap up UCF and USF , it is not likely to happen any time soon. 

I think when AAC TV contract is up for renewal, the AAC will get a much better deal. There is a multi year ratings track record now and they have had games on the ABC broadcast network . If UCF and USF can continue their progress it will help in the negotiations.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment/tv/tv-guy/os-ucf-usf-game-posts-big-rating-20171126-story.html

[GooooMarquette]

The ACC has an academic  snob factor that would prohibit them from taking UCF or USF.  The school the ACC pines for is Vanderbilt.

Big 12 has  less of an academic snob factor but would not drop two of its founding members that have very large alumni base  .Big 12 decided not to expand and turned down Houston, despite intense lobbying from wealthy people.  So while I agree with You that Big 12 would be wise to snap up UCF and USF , it is not likely to happen any time soon. 

I think when AAC TV contract is up for renewal, the AAC will get a much better deal. There is a multi year ratings track record now and they have had games on the ABC broadcast network . If UCF and USF can continue their progress it will help in the negotiations.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment/tv/tv-guy/os-ucf-usf-game-posts-big-rating-20171126-story.html

Agree with this analysis.  In addition to UCF and USF making progress, the addition of Wichita State for hoops will help the next round of negotiations if they continue what they've been doing the last few years.

[Galway Eagle]

I always think it's funny that the logic is always to bring the next best mid major program up rather than focus on getting the bottom of the conference up. I mean every time you skim the cream of the crop there's going to be a new team that rises to the top of the mid majors and catches the hearts of everybody.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Some questions...

1. If they could do it over again, would the ACC take UCF and USF instead of Syracuse, BC or Pitt? 

2. Would the B12 drop two members if it could add those two schools?  (Without PR or political repercussions.)  Say Iowa State and Kansas State?

My answers are yes and yes.

I think the B12 would be wise to snatch up both of them.

No and no. 

Realignment is as much as networks driving the movement for financial decisions as it is university presidents using conference membership with a country club-mentality.  Schools like Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College are historical, prestigious and respected national universities that not only have strong athletic programs, but also are considered peers to current conference members.  Schools like UCF and USF are still very young in comparison, and are viewed unfavorably to the older universities' leadership by today's standards.  There is no way that Florida State and Miami would sign off on additional Florida schools, and the fact is that both UCF and USF do not bring any new TV markets or new fan bases.  Both schools are 4th and 5th, at best, in the state for college football. 

With regards to the Big 12, the biggest mistake - after losing Colorado, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Missouri - was not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati (along with West Virginia and TCU) to get back to 12.  For similar reasons (perception issues and snobbery), the Big 12 did not invite Cincinnati or Louisville because they felt like they were not good enough.  Had the Big 12 made that move, the ACC would have been forced to grab UConn (instead of Louisville), and that could have led to the defections of Florida State and Clemson to the Big 12 (as the football schools were adamant that they did not want more basketball-first programs).