Interesting Article on Howard/Rowsey/Hauser

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://heatcheckcbb.com/2017/10/04/returning-deep-shooting-duos-are-usually-disappointments-is-marquettes-trio-immune/

Andrei retweeted this article on the PT account. Thought I would share. Gives some interesting information on repeating outstanding three point shooting over multiple seasons.

[bilsu]

I worry about losing players like JJJ who could drive and draw the defense in, which creates opening for three point shooters. I am not sure we have this kind of player on this year's team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I worry about losing players like JJJ who could drive and draw the defense in, which creates opening for three point shooters. I am not sure we have this kind of player on this year's team.

JJJ turned the ball over 25% of the time he decided to drive.  Not too worried about that. 

[Jay Bee]

Could be written a little better... " there have only been ten teams that returned a duo that converted a combined 120+ threes on 43.0% shooting or better." isn't true... must repeat the caveat... it's not 120+ combined, the writer means two guys w at least 60 makes

There are more duos w 120+ & 43%...

For example, 2015-16 Fletcher Magee + Eric Garcia

[bilsu]

JJJ turned the ball over 25% of the time he decided to drive.  Not too worried about that.

The defense still had to account for him. Same goes for Reinhardt and Wilson. Also, while not a driver, the defense had to account for Fischer. The team makeup has changed, which might make Howard and Sam easier to defend. Rowsey is a different type of player.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The defense still had to account for him. Same goes for Reinhardt and Wilson. Also, while not a driver, the defense had to account for Fischer. The team makeup has changed, which might make Howard and Sam easier to defend. Rowsey is a different type of player.

Yah, they were all solid players.  I think we'll miss Luke big time until Harry is eligible.  While JJJ and Katin were very good players, I just don't think we'll miss them all that much.  I suppose we'll find out soon enough...

[brewcity77]

Yah, they were all solid players.  I think we'll miss Luke big time until Harry is eligible.  While JJJ and Katin were very good players, I just don't think we'll miss them all that much.  I suppose we'll find out soon enough...

I do think JJ and Reinhardt will be missed, mainly because it's two guys filling a role. Positionally there are a lot of similarities. Both 2/3 types that were good for 20-25 mpg. They aren't irreplaceable but it is a lot of quality minutes to replace.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I do think JJ and Reinhardt will be missed, mainly because it's two guys filling a role. Positionally there are a lot of similarities. Both 2/3 types that were good for 20-25 mpg. They aren't irreplaceable but it is a lot of quality minutes to replace.

For sure.  I just think Rowsey, Markus and Sam will play max minutes, and they're all very, very good (offensively).  As many minutes as their fouls allow.  I also think Anim is going to be a major factor for this team at the 3....like could be better than JJJ factor.  I always supported JJJ, but I never was all that enamored with him.  He's more replaceable than Katin, who frankly outside of a few games, was a bit of a disappointment. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Could be written a little better... " there have only been ten teams that returned a duo that converted a combined 120+ threes on 43.0% shooting or better." isn't true... must repeat the caveat... it's not 120+ combined, the writer means two guys w at least 60 makes

There are more duos w 120+ & 43%...

For example, 2015-16 Fletcher Magee + Eric Garcia

Agreed.  I also thought 43.0% was an odd point of reference considering Rowsey was the worst of MU's sniper trio and shot 44.7% on 3FG.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Agreed.  I also thought 43.0% was an odd point of reference considering Rowsey was the worst of MU's sniper trio and shot 44.7% on 3FG.

My opinion, based on absolutely no data other than watching the games, is that Wowsey's % was the lowest of the three not based on skill, but because he tended to launch a few heat check, two steps inside half court, type shots a bit too frequently.  Love his confidence and attitude.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

My opinion, based on absolutely no data other than watching the games, is that Wowsey's % was the lowest of the three not based on skill, but because he tended to launch a few heat check, two steps inside half court, type shots a bit too frequently.  Love his confidence and attitude.

Good point.  Howard and Hauser only make the easy 3's.

[The Lens]

I hope Sacar can play.  Because otherwise we're replacing 4 seniors with a bunch of freshmen and a soph who has played ~10 games.  Having a mid-tier guy be able to step in and contribute would be nice.  Even if the freshman takeover Sacar's minutes by mid-year, having a 3rd year player on the court early on would feel good.

[MU82]

I would be surprised if our trio's percentage DIDN'T go down, and not just because of the historic tendency.

I agree with others that opposing coaches will defend differently, and also agree with others that we have not replaced either our drive-and-kick guys (notably JJJ and Duane) or our post players. JJJ and Luke DID have to be accounted for, no matter what anybody thinks about their actual performance.

Also a good point about the type of 3s that Rowsey took. I'd be surprised if advanced stats didn't show that he took more end-of-clock and/or contested 3s. (But I've been wrong before, and that's just my "eye test.")

[Galway Eagle]

The drive and kick rests on Haanif, if he do that effectively I see no reason that he can’t replace JJJ

[jsglow]

I would be surprised if our trio's percentage DIDN'T go down, and not just because of the historic tendency.

I agree with others that opposing coaches will defend differently, and also agree with others that we have not replaced either our drive-and-kick guys (notably JJJ and Duane) or our post players. JJJ and Luke DID have to be accounted for, no matter what anybody thinks about their actual performance.

Also a good point about the type of 3s that Rowsey took. I'd be surprised if advanced stats didn't show that he took more end-of-clock and/or contested 3s. (But I've been wrong before, and that's just my "eye test.")

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

[bilsu]

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

That also skews his 3 point percentage. A miss does not count, if you are fouled. A made three on a foul does count.

[wadesworld]

That also skews his 3 point percentage. A miss does not count, if you are fouled. A made three on a foul does count.

So over the entire course of an entire season he got a whopping one extra "free" 3 pointer made from an and-one three pointer?  I'm not sure that really "skews" his percentage, but I guess so.

I believe Howard had at least and-one three pointer as well this season, a home game in front of the opposition's bench against, I believe, Xavier.

[MU82]

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

[bilsu]

So over the entire course of an entire season he got a whopping one extra "free" 3 pointer made from an and-one three pointer?  I'm not sure that really "skews" his percentage, but I guess so.

I believe Howard had at least and-one three pointer as well this season, a home game in front of the opposition's bench against, I believe, Xavier.

His misses do not count. I guessing he had at least 12 misses he was fouled on.

[Cooby Snacks]

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

Vs. Providence and South Carolina, yes.

[Pepe Sylvia]

They'll shoot worse, especially Howard, because they shot historically well last year, and it turns out being historically good at something is hard to maintain. That's what makes it historic. Like, it's hard to shoot that well, and you need a bit of luck to shoot THAT well.

[jsglow]

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

I think the left hander was once.  If I recall correctly that was the day after someone took his head off in practice and he had a bunch of stitches and a big bandage.  But I might be wrong.  I do think he hit the 4 point play at least twice during the season.

[wadesworld]

His misses do not count. I guessing he had at least 12 misses he was fouled on.

But why would you count those shots?  You don't count missed shot attempts when you're fouled in 2 point range either.  Nor should you.  You shouldn't be expected to make shots when you're fouled, but if you do you have to include the shot attempt because points went up on the board.  You can't score without shooting the ball.

[MuMark]

I think the left hander was once.  If I recall correctly that was the day after someone took his head off in practice and he had a bunch of stitches and a big bandage.  But I might be wrong.  I do think he hit the 4 point play at least twice during the season.

He made 1 left handed against Providence....thought he also did it in the NCAA loss to SC but could be wrong?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Here's how I see it

Last year, Howard, Hauser, Rowsey combined to shoot 48% on 14 3PA/G

JJJ/Duane/Katin/Cheatham combined to shoot 36% on 10 3PA/G

That added up to 43% on 24 3PA combined

Just shift the 3PA balance this year more towards Howard/Hauser/Rowsey, and if they all fall 5%, that's 43%on 20 3PA/G

Then if Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott combine to shoot 35%on 5.5 3PA/G, you end up with a combined 41.2% on 25 3PA/G, which would have tied for 2nd place in all of college hoops last year, only behind ourselves.

I think we'll be fine!

[TFlegend]

He made 1 left handed against Providence....thought he also did it in the NCAA loss to SC but could be wrong?

It was two left handed three point and-1s... Providence and South Carolina.  What's the over/under on left handed 3s this year?  1.5?

[MU82]

Here's how I see it

Last year, Howard, Hauser, Rowsey combined to shoot 48% on 14 3PA/G

JJJ/Duane/Katin/Cheatham combined to shoot 36% on 10 3PA/G

That added up to 43% on 24 3PA combined

Just shift the 3PA balance this year more towards Howard/Hauser/Rowsey, and if they all fall 5%, that's 43%on 20 3PA/G

Then if Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott combine to shoot 35%on 5.5 3PA/G, you end up with a combined 41.2% on 25 3PA/G, which would have tied for 2nd place in all of college hoops last year, only behind ourselves.

I think we'll be fine!

I could live with that!

[Dawson Rental]

Interesting point about Howard: his 3 point % went up during Big East play.  I'm thinking that that says Howard's rate of improvement exceded the improvement in the quality of defense he faced last year.

[#UnleashSean]

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 1 after making a left handed three.

[jsglow]

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 1 after making a left handed three.

 

[bilsu]

But why would you count those shots?  You don't count missed shot attempts when you're fouled in 2 point range either.  Nor should you.  You shouldn't be expected to make shots when you're fouled, but if you do you have to include the shot attempt because points went up on the board.  You can't score without shooting the ball.

I am not saying you should count those shots. Had the ref not called the foul the shots would of counted. I suspect Rowsey also had a few misses that a foul could of been called on that a foul was not called.

[Jay Bee]

I am not saying you should count those shots. Had the ref not called the foul the shots would of counted. I suspect Rowsey also had a few misses that a foul could of been called on that a foul was not called.

^^^ Wth is this nonsense?

[GGGG]

I am not saying you should count those shots. Had the ref not called the foul the shots would of counted. I suspect Rowsey also had a few misses that a foul could of been called on that a foul was not called.

And had your parents never done the deed, you would never have been born.

I mean, what's the point?  The ref *did* call a foul.

[wadesworld]

I am not saying you should count those shots. Had the ref not called the foul the shots would of counted. I suspect Rowsey also had a few misses that a foul could of been called on that a foul was not called.

I think the numbers would be skewed if they DID count a "missed" shot on a foul as a missed field goal attempt.  I don't think counting made baskets while being fouled but not missed shots while being fouled towards one's field goal percentage skews anything.

Or if Andrew Rowsey was the only player whose made field goals while being fouled count towards his percentage.  Then that skews his numbers.  But it's the same for every player at every level of basketball.

[Class71]

I think we focus too much on whether or not their combined 3 point shooting will improve or not. The real question is, have they improve other aspects of their respective games over the summer? That is MU's real question. If the team has not improved defense, driving the ball, playing as a team, rebounding, etc. we are in for a long season. 

[Silkk the Shaka]

Here's how I see it

Last year, Howard, Hauser, Rowsey combined to shoot 48% on 14 3PA/G

JJJ/Duane/Katin/Cheatham combined to shoot 36% on 10 3PA/G

That added up to 43% on 24 3PA combined

Just shift the 3PA balance this year more towards Howard/Hauser/Rowsey, and if they all fall 5%, that's 43%on 20 3PA/G

Then if Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott combine to shoot 35%on 5.5 3PA/G, you end up with a combined 41.2% on 25 3PA/G, which would have tied for 2nd place in all of college hoops last year, only behind ourselves.

I think we'll be fine!

Wanted to revisit this from October to see how well I did... my 3 point presciption for the year was:

1.) Increase mix of Howard/Rowsey/Howard 3PA/G from 14 to 20; combine to shoot 43%
2.) Decrease the mix of everyone else from 10 to 5.5; combine to shoot 35%
3.) Result: shoot 41.2% as a team on 25 attempts per game, tie for 2nd place in all of college hoops

What actually happened was:

1.) Howard/Rowsey/Howard attempted 22 threes a game and shot 42.9% combined
2.) Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott/Froling attempted 4.3 threes per game and shot 35.8%
3.) Result: we shot 41.7% as a team on 26.3 attempts per game, good for 3rd place in all of college hoops

Not bad! Will revisit again in October when we have the full roster/health picture for the '18/'19 season. Guessing the attempts & % will go down a bit...

[MU82]

Wanted to revisit this from October to see how well I did... my 3 point presciption for the year was:

1.) Increase mix of Howard/Rowsey/Howard 3PA/G from 14 to 20; combine to shoot 43%
2.) Decrease the mix of everyone else from 10 to 5.5; combine to shoot 35%
3.) Result: shoot 41.2% as a team on 25 attempts per game, tie for 2nd place in all of college hoops

What actually happened was:

1.) Howard/Rowsey/Howard attempted 22 threes a game and shot 42.9% combined
2.) Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott/Froling attempted 4.3 threes per game and shot 35.8%
3.) Result: we shot 41.7% as a team on 26.3 attempts per game, good for 3rd place in all of college hoops

Not bad! Will revisit again in October when we have the full roster/health picture for the '18/'19 season. Guessing the attempts & % will go down a bit...

Wow ... I think I'll let you pick some stocks for me!

(Unlike Smuggles, you won't tell me not to buy AAPL at 90.)

[Stretchdeltsig]

I worry about losing players like JJJ who could drive and draw the defense in, which creates opening for three point shooters. I am not sure we have this kind of player on this year's team.

Sacar Anim is our slasher.

[brewcity77]

Wanted to revisit this from October to see how well I did... my 3 point presciption for the year was:

1.) Increase mix of Howard/Rowsey/Howard 3PA/G from 14 to 20; combine to shoot 43%
2.) Decrease the mix of everyone else from 10 to 5.5; combine to shoot 35%
3.) Result: shoot 41.2% as a team on 25 attempts per game, tie for 2nd place in all of college hoops

What actually happened was:

1.) Howard/Rowsey/Howard attempted 22 threes a game and shot 42.9% combined
2.) Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott/Froling attempted 4.3 threes per game and shot 35.8%
3.) Result: we shot 41.7% as a team on 26.3 attempts per game, good for 3rd place in all of college hoops

Not bad! Will revisit again in October when we have the full roster/health picture for the '18/'19 season. Guessing the attempts & % will go down a bit...

That's some damned impressive post mining, EFR. Tip of the cap to you, my friend 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Wanted to revisit this from October to see how well I did... my 3 point presciption for the year was:

1.) Increase mix of Howard/Rowsey/Howard 3PA/G from 14 to 20; combine to shoot 43%
2.) Decrease the mix of everyone else from 10 to 5.5; combine to shoot 35%
3.) Result: shoot 41.2% as a team on 25 attempts per game, tie for 2nd place in all of college hoops

What actually happened was:

1.) Howard/Rowsey/Howard attempted 22 threes a game and shot 42.9% combined
2.) Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott/Froling attempted 4.3 threes per game and shot 35.8%
3.) Result: we shot 41.7% as a team on 26.3 attempts per game, good for 3rd place in all of college hoops

Not bad! Will revisit again in October when we have the full roster/health picture for the '18/'19 season. Guessing the attempts & % will go down a bit...

"Not bad"?  Pretty much perfect

[ZiggysFryBoy]

predictions like this allow you to Hoopaloop yourself to humble brag. 

[Silkk the Shaka]

That's some damned impressive post mining, EFR. Tip of the cap to you, my friend 

Ha I was inspired by the Markus 60% thread you found

[Silkk the Shaka]

predictions like this allow you to Hoopaloop yourself to humble brag.

Where was the humble part?? This was straight up bragging!

[lawdog77]

Curious to see if there are any advance stays to show who was the recipient of Rowsey's assists versus Howard's. For example, did Rowsey assist on a lot of Howard's baskets, but Howard's were more towards Heldt, Hauser.

[PaintTouches]

Curious to see if there are any advance stays to show who was the recipient of Rowsey's assists versus Howard's. For example, did Rowsey assist on a lot of Howard's baskets, but Howard's were more towards Heldt, Hauser.

Per Synergy
From Rowsey:
Hauser 88
Howard 32
Anim 18
Cain 12
Heldt 11
John 10
Froling 9
Elliott 5
Cheatham 3

From Howard:
Hauser 21
Rowsey 16
Anim 14
Cain 9
John 9
Elliott 9
Heldt 8
Froling 3
Cheatham 3

[lawdog77]

thanks!

1. Scoop is an awesome forum to gather information for the lazy like me.
2. What are people's analysis of this, surprises?
I would have thought Rowsey's assists to Howard would have been a little higher. I thought Howard had more catch and shoot threes than he actually did, as well as Rowsey to Houser being a little less, as I thought he posted up more...

[Galway Eagle]

thanks!

1. Scoop is an awesome forum to gather information for the lazy like me.
2. What are people's analysis of this, surprises?
I would have thought Rowsey's assists to Howard would have been a little higher. I thought Howard had more catch and shoot threes than he actually did, as well as Rowsey to Houser being a little less, as I thought he posted up more...

You'd see more picks from sam then Rowsey or Howard drive and dish it back out to sam than you'd see a fellow midget doing that similar play.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Per Synergy
From Rowsey:
Hauser 88 46.8%
Howard 32 17.0%
Anim 18 9.6%
Cain 12 6.4%
Heldt 11 5.9%
John 10 5.3%
Froling 9 4.8%
Elliott 5 2.7%
Cheatham 3 1.6%

From Howard:
Hauser 21 22.8%
Rowsey 16 17.4%
Anim 14 15.2%
Cain 9 9.8%
John 9 9.8%
Elliott 9 9.8%
Heldt 8 8.7%
Froling 3 3.3%
Cheatham 3 3.3%

I added what % of Rowdy/Howard's assists went to each player. At first glance, it seems like Rowdy was much better at hitting three point shooters whereas Howard might have been a little better at finding cutters and big men. If Howard is going to run the point, he needs to learn that pick and pop play that Rowdy and Hauser would run all the time. Rowdy would refuse Hauser's screen, when both defenders moved to contain Rowdy, Hauser would slip the screen and be wide open for a three. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that over half of Rowdy's assists to Hauser were on that play. There were a couple of times where Hauser would do that for Howard last season and Howard didn't hit Sam for the open trey.

Master that play from Rowdy and I think that could go a long way toward maintaining our offense next season.

Oh and Rowdy teaching Howard #thething wouldn't hurt either 

[PaintTouches]

thanks!

2. What are people's analysis of this, surprises?
I would have thought Rowsey's assists to Howard would have been a little higher. I thought Howard had more catch and shoot threes than he actually did, as well as Rowsey to Houser being a little less, as I thought he posted up more...

My 2 cents: Howard had 224 FG attempts within 12 feet, Rowsey had 145. That's mostly because Howard developed a killer floater (shot 52.9%, blocked on only 8% of attempts), but also because Howard seemed to get a bit of tunnel vision on drives and wasn't as willing or effective on the kick portion of the drive and kick.

(Now I don't have the data on the number of kickouts from each that resulted in a miss, so take it all with a grain of salt.)

That's not to say Howard can't or won't improve at this, as I think he reads the game extremely well, just wasn't part of his game this year.

Rowsey assists:  52% were made 3s
Howard assists: 43% were made 3s

[Silkk the Shaka]

I added what % of Rowdy/Howard's assists went to each player. At first glance, it seems like Rowdy was much better at hitting three point shooters whereas Howard might have been a little better at finding cutters and big men. If Howard is going to run the point, he needs to learn that pick and pop play that Rowdy and Hauser would run all the time. Rowdy would refuse Hauser's screen, when both defenders moved to contain Rowdy, Hauser would slip the screen and be wide open for a three. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that over half of Rowdy's assists to Hauser were on that play. There were a couple of times where Hauser would do that for Howard last season and Howard didn't hit Sam for the open trey.

Master that play from Rowdy and I think that could go a long way toward maintaining our offense next season.

Oh and Rowdy teaching Howard #thething wouldn't hurt either 

Yeah that play was money in the bank. Now imagine Sam AND Joey on the court together running it on both wings with Howard and Elliott/NewPG until one of them gets an open look...

[PaintTouches]

If Howard is going to run the point, he needs to learn that pick and pop play that Rowdy and Hauser would run all the time. Rowdy would refuse Hauser's screen, when both defenders moved to contain Rowdy, Hauser would slip the screen and be wide open for a three. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that over half of Rowdy's assists to Hauser were on that play.

It looks like 24 of Rowsey's assists to Hauser came off that screen and roll play compared to 6 from Howard to Hauser. Definitely something to work on in the offseason.

[brewcity77]

Oh and Rowdy teaching Howard #thething wouldn't hurt either 

I remember an interview with Howard where he talked about wanting to work on his pump fake after seeing how effective it was for Rowsey. I can't imagine he'll reach #thething levels, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him start to break that out next year.

[Loose Cannon]

Wanted to revisit this from October to see how well I did... my 3 point presciption for the year was:

1.) Increase mix of Howard/Rowsey/Howard 3PA/G from 14 to 20; combine to shoot 43%
2.) Decrease the mix of everyone else from 10 to 5.5; combine to shoot 35%
3.) Result: shoot 41.2% as a team on 25 attempts per game, tie for 2nd place in all of college hoops

What actually happened was:

1.) Howard/Rowsey/Howard attempted 22 threes a game and shot 42.9% combined
2.) Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott/Froling attempted 4.3 threes per game and shot 35.8%
3.) Result: we shot 41.7% as a team on 26.3 attempts per game, good for 3rd place in all of college hoops

Not bad! Will revisit again in October when we have the full roster/health picture for the '18/'19 season. Guessing the attempts & % will go down a bit...

Well, I guess this put you in Wojo Camp.