Interesting Article on Howard/Rowsey/Hauser

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://heatcheckcbb.com/2017/10/04/returning-deep-shooting-duos-are-usually-disappointments-is-marquettes-trio-immune/

Andrei retweeted this article on the PT account. Thought I would share. Gives some interesting information on repeating outstanding three point shooting over multiple seasons.

[bilsu]

I worry about losing players like JJJ who could drive and draw the defense in, which creates opening for three point shooters. I am not sure we have this kind of player on this year's team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I worry about losing players like JJJ who could drive and draw the defense in, which creates opening for three point shooters. I am not sure we have this kind of player on this year's team.

JJJ turned the ball over 25% of the time he decided to drive.  Not too worried about that. 

[Jay Bee]

Could be written a little better... " there have only been ten teams that returned a duo that converted a combined 120+ threes on 43.0% shooting or better." isn't true... must repeat the caveat... it's not 120+ combined, the writer means two guys w at least 60 makes

There are more duos w 120+ & 43%...

For example, 2015-16 Fletcher Magee + Eric Garcia

[bilsu]

JJJ turned the ball over 25% of the time he decided to drive.  Not too worried about that.

The defense still had to account for him. Same goes for Reinhardt and Wilson. Also, while not a driver, the defense had to account for Fischer. The team makeup has changed, which might make Howard and Sam easier to defend. Rowsey is a different type of player.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The defense still had to account for him. Same goes for Reinhardt and Wilson. Also, while not a driver, the defense had to account for Fischer. The team makeup has changed, which might make Howard and Sam easier to defend. Rowsey is a different type of player.

Yah, they were all solid players.  I think we'll miss Luke big time until Harry is eligible.  While JJJ and Katin were very good players, I just don't think we'll miss them all that much.  I suppose we'll find out soon enough...

[brewcity77]

Yah, they were all solid players.  I think we'll miss Luke big time until Harry is eligible.  While JJJ and Katin were very good players, I just don't think we'll miss them all that much.  I suppose we'll find out soon enough...

I do think JJ and Reinhardt will be missed, mainly because it's two guys filling a role. Positionally there are a lot of similarities. Both 2/3 types that were good for 20-25 mpg. They aren't irreplaceable but it is a lot of quality minutes to replace.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I do think JJ and Reinhardt will be missed, mainly because it's two guys filling a role. Positionally there are a lot of similarities. Both 2/3 types that were good for 20-25 mpg. They aren't irreplaceable but it is a lot of quality minutes to replace.

For sure.  I just think Rowsey, Markus and Sam will play max minutes, and they're all very, very good (offensively).  As many minutes as their fouls allow.  I also think Anim is going to be a major factor for this team at the 3....like could be better than JJJ factor.  I always supported JJJ, but I never was all that enamored with him.  He's more replaceable than Katin, who frankly outside of a few games, was a bit of a disappointment. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Could be written a little better... " there have only been ten teams that returned a duo that converted a combined 120+ threes on 43.0% shooting or better." isn't true... must repeat the caveat... it's not 120+ combined, the writer means two guys w at least 60 makes

There are more duos w 120+ & 43%...

For example, 2015-16 Fletcher Magee + Eric Garcia

Agreed.  I also thought 43.0% was an odd point of reference considering Rowsey was the worst of MU's sniper trio and shot 44.7% on 3FG.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Agreed.  I also thought 43.0% was an odd point of reference considering Rowsey was the worst of MU's sniper trio and shot 44.7% on 3FG.

My opinion, based on absolutely no data other than watching the games, is that Wowsey's % was the lowest of the three not based on skill, but because he tended to launch a few heat check, two steps inside half court, type shots a bit too frequently.  Love his confidence and attitude.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

My opinion, based on absolutely no data other than watching the games, is that Wowsey's % was the lowest of the three not based on skill, but because he tended to launch a few heat check, two steps inside half court, type shots a bit too frequently.  Love his confidence and attitude.

Good point.  Howard and Hauser only make the easy 3's.

[The Lens]

I hope Sacar can play.  Because otherwise we're replacing 4 seniors with a bunch of freshmen and a soph who has played ~10 games.  Having a mid-tier guy be able to step in and contribute would be nice.  Even if the freshman takeover Sacar's minutes by mid-year, having a 3rd year player on the court early on would feel good.

[MU82]

I would be surprised if our trio's percentage DIDN'T go down, and not just because of the historic tendency.

I agree with others that opposing coaches will defend differently, and also agree with others that we have not replaced either our drive-and-kick guys (notably JJJ and Duane) or our post players. JJJ and Luke DID have to be accounted for, no matter what anybody thinks about their actual performance.

Also a good point about the type of 3s that Rowsey took. I'd be surprised if advanced stats didn't show that he took more end-of-clock and/or contested 3s. (But I've been wrong before, and that's just my "eye test.")

[Galway Eagle]

The drive and kick rests on Haanif, if he do that effectively I see no reason that he can’t replace JJJ

[jsglow]

I would be surprised if our trio's percentage DIDN'T go down, and not just because of the historic tendency.

I agree with others that opposing coaches will defend differently, and also agree with others that we have not replaced either our drive-and-kick guys (notably JJJ and Duane) or our post players. JJJ and Luke DID have to be accounted for, no matter what anybody thinks about their actual performance.

Also a good point about the type of 3s that Rowsey took. I'd be surprised if advanced stats didn't show that he took more end-of-clock and/or contested 3s. (But I've been wrong before, and that's just my "eye test.")

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

[bilsu]

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

That also skews his 3 point percentage. A miss does not count, if you are fouled. A made three on a foul does count.

[wadesworld]

That also skews his 3 point percentage. A miss does not count, if you are fouled. A made three on a foul does count.

So over the entire course of an entire season he got a whopping one extra "free" 3 pointer made from an and-one three pointer?  I'm not sure that really "skews" his percentage, but I guess so.

I believe Howard had at least and-one three pointer as well this season, a home game in front of the opposition's bench against, I believe, Xavier.

[MU82]

My favorite Rowsey moments.......

Every time he gets his guy in the air and goes to the line for 3.

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

[bilsu]

So over the entire course of an entire season he got a whopping one extra "free" 3 pointer made from an and-one three pointer?  I'm not sure that really "skews" his percentage, but I guess so.

I believe Howard had at least and-one three pointer as well this season, a home game in front of the opposition's bench against, I believe, Xavier.

His misses do not count. I guessing he had at least 12 misses he was fouled on.

[Cooby Snacks]

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

Vs. Providence and South Carolina, yes.

[Pepe Sylvia]

They'll shoot worse, especially Howard, because they shot historically well last year, and it turns out being historically good at something is hard to maintain. That's what makes it historic. Like, it's hard to shoot that well, and you need a bit of luck to shoot THAT well.

[jsglow]

Personally, I liked the one he made left-handed and went to the line for a 4-point play. (Actually ... just now thinking ... did that happen twice?)

I think the left hander was once.  If I recall correctly that was the day after someone took his head off in practice and he had a bunch of stitches and a big bandage.  But I might be wrong.  I do think he hit the 4 point play at least twice during the season.

[wadesworld]

His misses do not count. I guessing he had at least 12 misses he was fouled on.

But why would you count those shots?  You don't count missed shot attempts when you're fouled in 2 point range either.  Nor should you.  You shouldn't be expected to make shots when you're fouled, but if you do you have to include the shot attempt because points went up on the board.  You can't score without shooting the ball.

[MuMark]

I think the left hander was once.  If I recall correctly that was the day after someone took his head off in practice and he had a bunch of stitches and a big bandage.  But I might be wrong.  I do think he hit the 4 point play at least twice during the season.

He made 1 left handed against Providence....thought he also did it in the NCAA loss to SC but could be wrong?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Here's how I see it

Last year, Howard, Hauser, Rowsey combined to shoot 48% on 14 3PA/G

JJJ/Duane/Katin/Cheatham combined to shoot 36% on 10 3PA/G

That added up to 43% on 24 3PA combined

Just shift the 3PA balance this year more towards Howard/Hauser/Rowsey, and if they all fall 5%, that's 43%on 20 3PA/G

Then if Cheatham/Anim/Cain/Elliott combine to shoot 35%on 5.5 3PA/G, you end up with a combined 41.2% on 25 3PA/G, which would have tied for 2nd place in all of college hoops last year, only behind ourselves.

I think we'll be fine!