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Author Topic: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country  (Read 7871 times)

Tugg Speedman

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MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« on: October 03, 2017, 10:46:45 AM »
The typical superbar thread descends into a political argument with both sides yelling and belittling the other side.  Yes, I'm as guilty as the rest.  Because modern political arguments are no longer about finding common ground.  They are about who screams the loudest to bludgeon their opponent into submission.  It's all about winning, not about common ground.

The superbar is a microcosm of the country

This charts below come from a study of every vote back to 1879

https://legacy.voteview.com/political_polarization_2015.htm

Below are graphs of the difference between the Republican and Democratic Party.  It averages the voting record of each party.  More positive numbers mean more conservative.  More negative numbers mean more liberal.

The chart shows that since 1879 the Republicans are more conservative than ever.  The Democrats are the most liberal in 100 years.




The next chart shows the distance between the Republican and Democrat voting record.  The record peaks mean the Republicans and Democrats are further apart than any-time in history.



The percentage of "non-centrists" in the Senate is the highest in history.  This is driven largely by Republicans (red line, 61% are non-centrists, the highest ever).  Democrats are in blue (highest in 40 years) and the overall chamber in black is the highest ever



Same chart for the House, same conclusion.



-------------------------

The charts above do not include the current Congress, which could be the most polarized ever.

538 tracks the voting of the current Congression session (which started in January 2017).

Here is the Senate record.  Sort by "Trump Score"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/

You will notice zero overlap.  All the Democrats are on one side and all the Republicans are on the other side.

Ditto the House.  Again, sort by "Trump Score".  Of 435 members, only 5 overlap, the other 430 are lined up on one side or the other.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/house/




edit: added width=500 to img tags.


« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 01:59:57 PM by mu_hilltopper »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2017, 10:47:02 AM »
We vote extremes and we give them a "no compromise" mandate.  Why?  Again, look at the discussions here, they are exactly the same.

So how does this end?  Does one side "win?" by bludgeoning one side into submission?  Do we find a new era of compromise?  How/why does this reverse?  We have been moving further and further apart for 40 years and at the most extreme now.

Do we just keep yelling and belittling each other for the coming decades?  Doesn't this dysfunctionality affect Washington's ability to run the Government, making things worse?

Or, do we start thinking about different countries?

Still many years away but it is getting discussed

JULY 25, 2017, 6:16 P.M.
Backers of another shot at a 'Calexit' ballot measure can now gather signatures
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-coming-to-a-street-corner-near-you-a-1501029304-htmlstory.html

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/08/03/will-california-secede-from-united-states.html

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/texas-secede-breaking-hard/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/06/26/in-a-first-texas-boys-state-votes-to-secede-from-the-union/?utm_term=.14bd130b17e2

------------------

Is the fact is we are becoming peoples with two different views and eventually are going to get tired of fighting each other and seek a divorce?
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 10:51:09 AM by 1.21 Jigawatts »

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2017, 11:27:04 AM »
You charts seem interesting but the images get cutoff halfway through. Anyway you can make the image smaller?

I don't think we will ever see states splitting off to form their own countries. While there are red states and blue states, the real splits are urban/rural. Even in Texas if you look at a map cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio are blue while all the rural areas are red.

I don't know how to fix political discourse in this country. We have gotten to a place where both sides have such contempt for the other. I think it would take an extremely charismatic leader who ran on a true moderate platform of compromise. The problem is, I don't think either party would support such a candidate getting on the ballot.

Maybe term limits would help? If senators and representatives were less focused on appeasing their base to get reelected and more focused on governing, I could see compromise becoming more of a legitimate option.
TAMU

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Pakuni

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2017, 12:10:18 PM »
While there certainly major challenges in today's political atmosphere, I really don't believe it's any worse - or even atypical - for our country.
Is the political atmosphere today as tumultuous and divisive as the 60s and early 70s? I would say not.
Or the 50s, when we had political witch hunts for communist sympathizers and the start of the Civil Rights Movement?
We had a pair of World Wars, one of which was fairly unpopular, a Great Depression, massive labor strife around the turn of the century, an actual civil war, etc., etc.
And let's not forget there are multiple historical instances of American politicians assaulting and even killing one another over policy disputes.

I think many think of today's times as especially divisive because most of us came of age in the 80s and 90s, a remarkably tranquil era in American politics.
In reality, it was the 80s and 90s that were outliers in American history. The last 20 years have been closer to par for the course.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2017, 12:21:14 PM »
I think the USA beginning was pretty raucous, the late 1700's and early 1800's.  Benjamin Franklin's grandson was publishing fake news to stir up anti-Federalist ideals.  Jefferson was VP and was secretly undermining his President John Adams.  What was in print back then was very inflammatory.

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2017, 12:27:28 PM »
Scoop Superbar is not a microcosm of the country.  The Superbar is a handful of people who like to argue with each other -- this ultimately chases everyone else away.  Plus, by demographics alone scoop can in no way represent the country as a whole since nearly all have either attended or graduated from MU and are here because they are college basketball fans.

I don't know what you are trying to show in the charts...particularly the last two -- I come to completely different conclusions that do not end with succession.

Galway Eagle

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2017, 12:30:16 PM »
Scoop Superbar is not a microcosm of the country.  The Superbar is a handful of people who like to argue with each other -- this ultimately chases everyone else away.  Plus, by demographics alone scoop can in no way represent the country as a whole since nearly all have either attended or graduated from MU and are here because they are college basketball fans.

I don't know what you are trying to show in the charts...particularly the last two -- I come to completely different conclusions that do not end with succession.

Woah you can’t lump the superbar just to arguing! What about the handy food and tourism threads? Everything from great spots in “x” city to the smoke meats thread
Maigh Eo for Sam

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2017, 01:14:13 PM »
Woah you can’t lump the superbar just to arguing! What about the handy food and tourism threads? Everything from great spots in “x” city to the smoke meats thread

I should have referred to the locked threads in the SuperBar.  My guess is this is what the OP was referring to....but then again maybe he was talking about the passion in the beer thread.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2017, 02:40:44 PM »
Scoop Superbar is not a microcosm of the country.  The Superbar is a handful of people who like to argue with each other -- this ultimately chases everyone else away.  Plus, by demographics alone scoop can in no way represent the country as a whole since nearly all have either attended or graduated from MU and are here because they are college basketball fans.

I don't know what you are trying to show in the charts...particularly the last two -- I come to completely different conclusions that do not end with succession.

I agree.  I'd call Scoop a cross-section of society rather than a true microcosm.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2017, 02:53:52 PM »
TRIGGER WARNING:  For those who don't like to sniff politics, please move on from this thread.  I don't know where it's going, but we'll see how long it goes before degeneration.

This topic is highly interesting to me.   I am convinced that in 100 years, maybe 50, and maybe just 5 .. this country will be organized differently.

My first thought is that Calexit will occur in some regard. 
Supporters need to gather signatures for a referendum to change CA's constitution .. pass that .. then pass a second referendum. 

Anyone want to bet against CA and their referendum process?    If you'd be shocked it would pass, you're not paying attention.

Ok, so say these votes pass, and CA signals a desire to leave the Union.   We fought a civil war over that, it's illegal! 

Trump is not Lincoln.  Would you bet against Trump saying "California, you're FIRED!"? 
 Without CA's 55 electoral votes, the GOP would have a HUGE advantage in future elections.   Peter Thiel (Trump supporter, billionaire) has suggested he'd run for CA governor to promote Calexit for this precise reason.  (He wouldn't win, but it indicates this is not purely fantasy.)

No blood spilled, no war, just politicians in DC deciding to let CA go.  Sure, it'd be a royal mess trying to figure out how to move forward.   As the UK how their divorce is going.

The GOP is in power, they want to keep it long term, and "we're" better off without those liberal hippies in California anyhow.  Sure, "we" lose a MAJOR economic hub, but so what, we'll be happier without abortion, gun control, happier with lower taxes and a smaller safety net.

I get it .. that's a lot of what-ifs.  Which one would you bet against happening?  We are truly in the 'stranger things have happened' era, and this doesn't seem so strange anymore. 

Maybe Calexit isn't how it happens .. but I have little doubt, our contryman's bond to eachother has never been weaker, there's no end in sight to the furthering division, and the US will not have 50 states a century from now. 

Galway Eagle

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2017, 03:23:51 PM »
If that were to happen how long would it be before New England leaves? I can’t imagine New England would like to stick around as the only left hub in the USA that isn’t the Immediate Lake Michigan Chi/mil/gary area
Maigh Eo for Sam

mu_hilltopper

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2017, 03:37:52 PM »
Besides a physical separation .. I know this is crazy and sounds like science fiction .. but what if there was some form of "virtual country" ..

I'm not smart enough to figure it out, but .. look, there are people who do not want to live under the rules of the left, and some who don't want to live under the rules of the right.  Physical separation isn't going to cut it .. California, Washington, Oregon and NE decide to form their own country?  Fine.   But 40% of CA, WA, OR conservative citizens are now unhappy, not to mention 40% of all liberals in the other ~47 states.

Imagine a science fiction world where we could .. declare our virtual country.  Two countries, living inside of one.  Two governments, two sets politicians and rules.  The Blues could tax themselves highly and provide heightened governmental services for the blues only, and the Reds could do the same for their own peoples.   -- It's easier to say it than do it, no doubt.  Just spitballin. 

Pakuni

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2017, 03:46:11 PM »
TRIGGER WARNING:  For those who don't like to sniff politics, please move on from this thread.  I don't know where it's going, but we'll see how long it goes before degeneration.

This topic is highly interesting to me.   I am convinced that in 100 years, maybe 50, and maybe just 5 .. this country will be organized differently.

My first thought is that Calexit will occur in some regard. 
Supporters need to gather signatures for a referendum to change CA's constitution .. pass that .. then pass a second referendum. 

Anyone want to bet against CA and their referendum process?    If you'd be shocked it would pass, you're not paying attention.

Ok, so say these votes pass, and CA signals a desire to leave the Union.   We fought a civil war over that, it's illegal! 

Trump is not Lincoln.  Would you bet against Trump saying "California, you're FIRED!"? 
 Without CA's 55 electoral votes, the GOP would have a HUGE advantage in future elections.   Peter Thiel (Trump supporter, billionaire) has suggested he'd run for CA governor to promote Calexit for this precise reason.  (He wouldn't win, but it indicates this is not purely fantasy.)

No blood spilled, no war, just politicians in DC deciding to let CA go.  Sure, it'd be a royal mess trying to figure out how to move forward.   As the UK how their divorce is going.

The GOP is in power, they want to keep it long term, and "we're" better off without those liberal hippies in California anyhow.  Sure, "we" lose a MAJOR economic hub, but so what, we'll be happier without abortion, gun control, happier with lower taxes and a smaller safety net.

I get it .. that's a lot of what-ifs.  Which one would you bet against happening?  We are truly in the 'stranger things have happened' era, and this doesn't seem so strange anymore. 

Maybe Calexit isn't how it happens .. but I have little doubt, our contryman's bond to eachother has never been weaker, there's no end in sight to the furthering division, and the US will not have 50 states a century from now.

OK, I'll say it .... this is pure fantasy.

For starters, polls of California voters shows they're strongly opposed to Calexit. The most recent I found shows 68 percent would vote against it. So it's already dead.
But even if proponents were somehow able to flip almost 20 percent of electorate, you'd still need a two-thirds vote of Congress. Tthe same Congress that can't seem to get 51 Senate votes for anything significant.
Even if the Congressional makeup stays the same after 2018 - unlikely for any midterm election - how many Democrats in Congress are going to be cool with this? I'll spare you the math ... you'd need 43 Democrats in the House and 15 in the Senate to vote in favor of California secession.
That's not happening.
And then you'd need three-fourths of the state legislatures - 38 of them -  to sign off.  Also not happening.

The notion that "our contryman's bond to each other has never been weaker" seems off in light of the fact we had a Civil War. I'm thinking it might have been maybe a little weaker then.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2017, 03:47:06 PM »
Besides a physical separation .. I know this is crazy and sounds like science fiction .. but what if there was some form of "virtual country" ..

I'm not smart enough to figure it out, but .. look, there are people who do not want to live under the rules of the left, and some who don't want to live under the rules of the right.  Physical separation isn't going to cut it .. California, Washington, Oregon and NE decide to form their own country?  Fine.   But 40% of CA, WA, OR conservative citizens are now unhappy, not to mention 40% of all liberals in the other ~47 states.

Imagine a science fiction world where we could .. declare our virtual country.  Two countries, living inside of one.  Two governments, two sets politicians and rules.  The Blues could tax themselves highly and provide heightened governmental services for the blues only, and the Reds could do the same for their own peoples.   -- It's easier to say it than do it, no doubt.  Just spitballin.

You may have just pitched the idea for the next great dystopian novel. Fascinating concept though I can't think of any way it could be practically implemented.
TAMU

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mu_hilltopper

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2017, 04:13:19 PM »
OK, I'll say it .... this is pure fantasy.

For starters, polls of California voters shows they're strongly opposed to Calexit. The most recent I found shows 68 percent would vote against it. So it's already dead.
But even if proponents were somehow able to flip almost 20 percent of electorate, you'd still need a two-thirds vote of Congress. Tthe same Congress that can't seem to get 51 Senate votes for anything significant.
Even if the Congressional makeup stays the same after 2018 - unlikely for any midterm election - how many Democrats in Congress are going to be cool with this? I'll spare you the math ... you'd need 43 Democrats in the House and 15 in the Senate to vote in favor of California secession.
That's not happening.
And then you'd need three-fourths of the state legislatures - 38 of them -  to sign off.  Also not happening.

The notion that "our contryman's bond to each other has never been weaker" seems off in light of the fact we had a Civil War. I'm thinking it might have been maybe a little weaker then.


Fair points.  But .. 68% are against it NOW.  Slosh some money around that, stoke some anti-Trump/GOP fears .. 18% flipping is possible -- not to mention that polls haven't been super accurate lately.  Brexit, nor Trump were going to happen.  You want to be on record favoring an un-American secession?   Gosh, I wonder when others have lied to pollsters about their choices lately.

Point of info, you say we need 2/3rds of Congress to vote on a secession.  Where is that written?  (Honestly don't know .. didn't think there'd be some actual law on the books about the procedure to vote on removing a state.) 

Same question about the 38 state legislatures.  I get it, that's the number for a Constitutional Amendment .. but is this that?

Good point on the Civil War countrymen bond thing.  How about "never been weaker in 150 years."

Tugg Speedman

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2017, 04:18:38 PM »
While there certainly major challenges in today's political atmosphere, I really don't believe it's any worse - or even atypical - for our country.
Is the political atmosphere today as tumultuous and divisive as the 60s and early 70s? I would say not.
Or the 50s, when we had political witch hunts for communist sympathizers and the start of the Civil Rights Movement?
We had a pair of World Wars, one of which was fairly unpopular, a Great Depression, massive labor strife around the turn of the century, an actual civil war, etc., etc.
And let's not forget there are multiple historical instances of American politicians assaulting and even killing one another over policy disputes.

I think many think of today's times as especially divisive because most of us came of age in the 80s and 90s, a remarkably tranquil era in American politics.
In reality, it was the 80s and 90s that were outliers in American history. The last 20 years have been closer to par for the course.

good comments ... like that we can talk without resorting to name calling.  I vow I will not.

My only comment to this is that the charts in the first post say we are the most extreme in history.  More so than any time since the civil war.  So they do argue that we are at a place we have not been at before.

I think the USA beginning was pretty raucous, the late 1700's and early 1800's.  Benjamin Franklin's grandson was publishing fake news to stir up anti-Federalist ideals.  Jefferson was VP and was secretly undermining his President John Adams.  What was in print back then was very inflammatory.

Yes and that was a period of extreme turmoil and growth that ended with us splitting into two different countries and fighting the bloodiest war in our history to put it back together.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2017, 04:22:55 PM »
You charts seem interesting but the images get cutoff halfway through. Anyway you can make the image smaller?

I don't think we will ever see states splitting off to form their own countries. While there are red states and blue states, the real splits are urban/rural. Even in Texas if you look at a map cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio are blue while all the rural areas are red.

I don't know how to fix political discourse in this country. We have gotten to a place where both sides have such contempt for the other. I think it would take an extremely charismatic leader who ran on a true moderate platform of compromise. The problem is, I don't think either party would support such a candidate getting on the ballot.

Maybe term limits would help? If senators and representatives were less focused on appeasing their base to get reelected and more focused on governing, I could see compromise becoming more of a legitimate option.

Bingo on the highlighted part!  We are a rural/urban divided country.  If it was geographic, we would have split long ago.  Given that the charts in the first block say we are the most polarized, don't know how this resolves itself.

Term limits make it worse.  It forces out the older politicians, that tend to be centrist so we can elect more left (Liz Warren) and right (Roy Moore?) take no prisoners firebrands.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2017, 04:24:15 PM »
Scoop Superbar is not a microcosm of the country.  The Superbar is a handful of people who like to argue with each other -- this ultimately chases everyone else away.  Plus, by demographics alone scoop can in no way represent the country as a whole since nearly all have either attended or graduated from MU and are here because they are college basketball fans.

I don't know what you are trying to show in the charts...particularly the last two -- I come to completely different conclusions that do not end with succession.

The highlighted part is a perfect description of political discussions in 2017.

mu03eng

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2017, 04:36:03 PM »
Fair points.  But .. 68% are against it NOW.  Slosh some money around that, stoke some anti-Trump/GOP fears .. 18% flipping is possible -- not to mention that polls haven't been super accurate lately.  Brexit, nor Trump were going to happen.  You want to be on record favoring an un-American secession?   Gosh, I wonder when others have lied to pollsters about their choices lately.

Point of info, you say we need 2/3rds of Congress to vote on a secession.  Where is that written?  (Honestly don't know .. didn't think there'd be some actual law on the books about the procedure to vote on removing a state.) 

Same question about the 38 state legislatures.  I get it, that's the number for a Constitutional Amendment .. but is this that?

Good point on the Civil War countrymen bond thing.  How about "never been weaker in 150 years."

Given the amount of money California would lose from the Federal government is staggering, that alone would prevent any such behavior....not to mention the cost/infrastructure required to stand-up a California "national" defense force.

What I would be curious about is what sort of self-selecting would happen if California would be allowed/able to seceded. What would the population look like post-secession?
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GGGG

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2017, 04:38:49 PM »
Secession isn't happening here.  It isn't happening in Spain either.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2017, 04:49:21 PM »
Given the amount of money California would lose from the Federal government is staggering, that alone would prevent any such behavior....not to mention the cost/infrastructure required to stand-up a California "national" defense force.

California currently pays $369b in federal taxes, gets back $356b .. so yeah, it'd need to create a new nation tax to make that up, but net net, slightly cheaper. 

The bigger money question is stuff like individual social security accounts.  -- No doubt, a royal mess to figure out. 

As for a California military .. perhaps they forego that .. or have some form of agreement, e.g., the US has military bases in countries that they pledge to defend.   

Galway Eagle

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2017, 04:50:09 PM »
Besides a physical separation .. I know this is crazy and sounds like science fiction .. but what if there was some form of "virtual country" ..

I'm not smart enough to figure it out, but .. look, there are people who do not want to live under the rules of the left, and some who don't want to live under the rules of the right.  Physical separation isn't going to cut it .. California, Washington, Oregon and NE decide to form their own country?  Fine.   But 40% of CA, WA, OR conservative citizens are now unhappy, not to mention 40% of all liberals in the other ~47 states.

Imagine a science fiction world where we could .. declare our virtual country.  Two countries, living inside of one.  Two governments, two sets politicians and rules.  The Blues could tax themselves highly and provide heightened governmental services for the blues only, and the Reds could do the same for their own peoples.   -- It's easier to say it than do it, no doubt.  Just spitballin.

Dibs on the movie rights to this.
Maigh Eo for Sam

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2017, 04:53:04 PM »
California currently pays $369b in federal taxes, gets back $356b .. so yeah, it'd need to create a new nation tax to make that up, but net net, slightly cheaper. 

The bigger money question is stuff like individual social security accounts.  -- No doubt, a royal mess to figure out. 

As for a California military .. perhaps they forego that .. or have some form of agreement, e.g., the US has military bases in countries that they pledge to defend.

So California becomes part of NATO....lolz :)

Maybe California can secede and make Bitcoin their national currency.


(side note, Bitcoin isn't a bad play right now, Amazon is going to start accepting payments in it in November).
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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2017, 04:55:19 PM »
Given the amount of money California would lose from the Federal government is staggering, that alone would prevent any such behavior....not to mention the cost/infrastructure required to stand-up a California "national" defense force.

What I would be curious about is what sort of self-selecting would happen if California would be allowed/able to seceded. What would the population look like post-secession?

I agree it won't happen, but I don't know that Cali would lose money from the feds. They would no longer have to pay a Federal income tax and they might come out ahead if that federal tax money was paid to California instead of the Feds. They get less that $1.00 in return for each dollar they pay in Federal tax.

Most red states however would get killed by seceding. S Carolina gets back almost $8.00 for each dollar it pays in Fed tax. Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, W Virginia, etc. all get back more than double what they pay in. They would have to raise their state taxes by multiples in order to survive.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: MUscoop Is A Microcosm Of The Country
« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2017, 05:01:29 PM »
There is no secession process in the United States.  I already commented on secession in NM thread (Civil War tangent).  I posted:

Another argument against secession centers on the language of Article I, Section 10, which declares that “No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation….” To proponents of this position, Article I, Section 10 unequivocally shows that the states which formed the Confederate States of America were in clear violation of the Constitution, thus invalidating their government and the individual acts of secession which led to it. Abraham Lincoln indirectly defended this position by declaring the seceding states were in “rebellion” and therefore still members of the Union. The Constitution, then, was still legally enforceable in those states, including Article I, Section 10.

So until a Constitutional Amendment modifies Article I, Section 10, states have no legal grounds to secede.

As for the great dystopian novel/movie idea, would you prefer the Hilltoppers refer to the people of the blue country or the red?

 

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