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Author Topic: Preseason predictions  (Read 35361 times)

tower912

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Preseason predictions
« on: September 16, 2017, 05:53:06 PM »
Athlon, Street & Smith, Lindy's all project MU to finish 7th-8th in the Big East this season.    Clearly we all have more important things to talk about.    But I will try something novel and actually try to talk about Marquette basketball.       I think these predictions are fair.   After all, significant returning minutes from last year are Markus, Rowsey, Sam, Haanif, and Heldt.     Others with ANY D1 experience are Froling (one semester at another school) and Sacar.    4 freshmen from outside the top 100 (or just on the edge according to some.   Regardless, not considered high impact) 
    Most of us tend to look at MU hoops through Blue and Gold glasses, so we see the potential with Harry.   Improvement from Sacar and Haanif.    Freshmen who come in and surprise everyone and outperform their high school rankings.  But the major preseason predictions from the CBB magazines are not going to be as optimistic.    They clearly see an inexperienced team lacking size at guard and forward. 
   I am going to continue to wear my homer glasses.   I think that everyone improves and the freshmen contribute.     Bubble team. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 05:59:35 PM »
Haven't seen the predictions, but I assume DePaul and Georgetown are at the bottom in most. When MU is picked 7th, are they also ahead of SJU? Creighton?

Anyhow, I think we'll be around 5th, and in the Dance again.

moomoo

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2017, 06:06:05 PM »

They clearly see an inexperienced team lacking size at guard and forward. 
 


Huh? 

Point guard is the only position where the players are below average in terms of height.

Two guards and forwards are not undersized height wise.

Silenzio. Parla il moomoo.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2017, 06:07:37 PM »
5-7 in the standings. First team of all Wojo recruits. Want to see defense out of this team as we know they can score. Rookies will be up and down. Hopefully more up in BE.

Lots of wild cards but will be fun to watch. Worried about OOC.

tower912

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2017, 06:10:40 PM »

Huh? 

Point guard is the only position where the players are below average in terms of height.

Two guards and forwards are not undersized height wise.
If Howard and Rowsey are the starting guards, MU is seriously undersized at guard.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 06:36:10 PM by tower912 »
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2017, 07:08:47 PM »
if we finish ahead of only Georgetown (awful) and DePaul (always awful) in year 4 of the Wojo era I will be very disappointed - but I think we'll do considerably better (5th?).

MuMark

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2017, 07:15:16 PM »
if we finish ahead of only Georgetown (awful) and DePaul (always awful) in year 4 of the Wojo era I will be very disappointed - but I think we'll do considerably better (5th?).

Only 1 senior on roster.....and 2 juniors.

...obviously hope we do better but too many unknowns to expect it ......progress doesn't happen in a straight line.


TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2017, 07:31:12 PM »
I got us at 7th in the BEast and in the play in game in Dayton. But 5-7 in the Big East is really a crapshoot. Could see us finishing ahead of both Creighton and Butler. Will depend on how well each team's newcomers do. I really don't believe in St. John's. Not yet. I have seen nothing to convince me that Mullin can get that talent to play as a team. I think they will continue to be boom or bust.

Hearing positive things about Cain and Elliott's defense. I'm not surprised we're ranked low, we don't have a very intimidating recruiting class per the rankings. But I think this class could surprise some people.
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tower912

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2017, 07:41:36 PM »
The only way this team gets to the dance is if all the returnees have improved AND they get consistent contributions from 4 others. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Golden Avalanche

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2017, 09:31:18 PM »
The only way this team gets to the dance is if all the returnees have improved AND they get consistent contributions from 4 others.

At an advanced age, seems ludicrous to make sweeping generalizations with such certainty.

IrwinFletcher

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2017, 09:44:29 PM »
I think 6-7 is a realistic prediction not because Wojo has done poorly or that the players aren't good/experienced.  It's because this conference is really, really good. You could have 3 teams with protected seeds come selection Sunday.

Sweep Gtown and DePaul.
Split with SJU, CU and BU.

That gets you 7 wins.

8 games left with the top 4.  Can you get 3 wins from that group?  That gives you 10 BE wins and a 5th or 6th place finish.

brewcity77

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2017, 10:18:49 PM »
I'm the eternal optimist, so take this with a grain of salt, but I think 5th, though 4th isn't out of the realm of possibility. Frankly, it's because of whom I see behind us. DePaul and Georgetown seem set to prop up the league again. The Demons might win some games, but not enough to get them out of that bottom two. Creighton and Butler just lost too much for me to be that convinced by them. And not just what they lost, but I'm not sold on their replacements. I don't see either as tourney teams right now. That's four teams I see us ahead of.

At the other end, I think Villanova, Providence, and Seton Hall really should be the class of the league. Those are all teams that should be aiming for top-15 rankings and top-4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

That leaves a middle of Xavier, Marquette, and St. John's. I expect it will be in that order, but I could see us a spot up or a spot down. I think the league gets 5-6 bids this year. Non-conference will be huge. If we win 9 games, that should be at least 4 solid wins (Purdue, Maui x3, Wisconsin, Georgia, Vermont). Any more and we're in great shape. I think we finish 20-10 and are seeded right around the 6-8 lines.
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Herman Cain

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2017, 11:00:19 PM »
Villanova and Seton Hall will be the top two teams in the league. MU will be the best of the rest and finish 3rd.

I see our strengths in the Big Three of Markus , Rowsey and Sam . They are tremendous offensive threats from deep and work well together.  As a group they will keep us close in every game with their three point prowess and excellent court vision.

Matt Heldt has improved at a steady rate through his two years and he is ready to give us 25 Big East quality minutes at center. He will do a lot of the dirty work essential to winning.

Haanif will return to his freshman year form. He is a quality kid and learned from his slump last year. I think he will ring up a lot of junk baskets from hustling and defense.

Sacar made the most of his year off. He will provide hustle and defense off the bench. I think he will be a real spark plug.

As to the newcomers , I see Froling with some nice scoring off the bench.  Theo and Ike will provide strength and size around the rim.  We definitely have the size to compete with any team.

Cain and Elliot will make steady progression throughout the year . we have the
Luxury of working them in at a pace conducive to their physical,strength gains.

Cam will play a valuable role keeping everyone pumped up again.

Coaching staff has learned a lot the and should be much improved from years past.

I think we make it into the tournament and get to the second weekend.

Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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tower912

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2017, 06:26:17 AM »
At an advanced age, seems ludicrous to make sweeping generalizations with such certainty.
My age isn't that advanced and please present an alternative scenario that gets us to the dance.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2017, 09:14:07 AM »
The only way this team gets to the dance is if all the returnees have improved AND they get consistent contributions from 4 others.

I disagree. I think it's fair to have high expectations for Howard, Rowsey, and Hauser. If Heldt and Haanif can be reliable, that's 5 guys. If those guys all have improvement, we can get there with consistent contributions from 2 others.

You don't need a consistent 9-man depth chart. It's nice, but it's a luxury. In the Pomeroy era (since 2001) last year was the first time we had 9 players average 30% of the team's minutes. Before that, we came close once (2007-08) and every other year had depth charts that went 6-8 deep.

If the five returning players are consistent and improved, we can get by with two others stepping up. You have to get to 200 minutes. We can do that with the following:

Howard - 30
Rowsey - 30
Hauser - 30
Heldt - 25
Cheatham - 25
Froling - 20
Anim - 20
Freshmen - 20 combined

That would be a 7-man depth chart with the kids picking up the slack, playing in the 4-8 mpg range each. If those first seven are all quality contributors, that's a deep enough bench, barring injuries, to get to the Dance. In the past, we've gotten there with little more depth than that.
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ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2017, 09:14:47 AM »
I dont know about predictions, but I certainly like our returners more than Creighton or Butler.

We have no clue how LaVall Jordan is going to do in his first year, and we saw what Creighton was like once Maurice Watson went down. I think Mintz is a nice player, but not enough to compensate for the losses of Patton and Watson.

Anyways, Markus and Rowsey can keep us in any game, and although SJ has a ton of talent, still not convinced with Mullin as a head coach. I say we finish 5th ahead of Depaul, Georgetown, Butler, Creighton and SJ.

Oh, and new and improved Harry Froling looks like a beast. https://www.instagram.com/p/BYPE2LRADxV/?taken-by=harryfroling

DCHoopster

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2017, 09:27:24 AM »
Froling lost some weight, so what, what can he do on the court?  Has anybody seen him play?  Lets reserve judgement before you state he is a beast.

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2017, 09:33:21 AM »
Froling lost some weight, so what, what can he do on the court?  Has anybody seen him play?  Lets reserve judgement before you state he is a beast.

Skill has always been there, he was just fat and out of shape at SMU. Think raw talent of Freshman year Davante, just three inches taller and with a better jumpshot.

tower912

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2017, 09:48:14 AM »
Brew, I hope you are right.  But.... I wonder how much Heldt and Fooling can play together.  I wonder how much we will give up defensively with Rowsey and Howard playing 30 each.  And Hauser at the 4 with Anim/Having at the 3 is still small.    But I hope you are right.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2017, 10:05:12 AM »
Brew, I hope you are right.  But.... I wonder how much Heldt and Fooling can play together.  I wonder how much we will give up defensively with Rowsey and Howard playing 30 each.  And Hauser at the 4 with Anim/Having at the 3 is still small.    But I hope you are right.

We are small on the perimeter, no doubt. I think our defense will be improved for a few reasons. First, another year in the system will help guys like Howard, Hauser, and Rowsey. Heldt was a better defender than Luke.

I don't expect elite defense, but if we can go from 165 in adjusted efficiency last year to even the top-100 it will be a huge jump and I feel is very attainable. Our ability to protect the rim should be better on the basis of depth, size, and athleticism in the post.

Offensively, I know most people expect a decline with the loss of Fischer, Johnson, and Reinhardt. I'm not so sure. Matt will likely have a lower usage than Luke, but he had a higher offensive rating and 2PFG% than Luke last year. When his minutes went up, his production (which usually declines with increased minutes) did not tail off. I can see him being an equally efficient, lower-usage version of Luke. We also return our two most efficient offensive players in Hauser and Rowsey. JJ was our second highest usage player after Markus last year yet he was second lowest on the team in effiency. And while Reinhardt was good (very good at times) he didn't have anything remotely close to irreplaceable production.

I fully believe Heldt and Cheatham have the ability to take over for Fischer and JJ without much drop-off (not saying they will, saying it's plausible to expect they can) and the expected improvement of the rest of the team can more than make up for the loss of Katin. I think our offense should be improved next year despite the graduations. I know we were 8th in the country in adjusted efficiency, but the ceiling for the 2017-18 team is higher than that.
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ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2017, 10:33:46 AM »
Uhhh, sorry but no way can Heldt replace Fischer on the offensive end. Haanif maybe, but he was so bad last year I have a hard time believing he can return to form in that magnitude.

Golden Avalanche

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2017, 12:49:44 PM »
My age isn't that advanced and please present an alternative scenario that gets us to the dance.

Win 10 games in conference.

brewcity77

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2017, 02:19:04 PM »
Uhhh, sorry but no way can Heldt replace Fischer on the offensive end. Haanif maybe, but he was so bad last year I have a hard time believing he can return to form in that magnitude.

He'll be lower usage than Luke, but if he can convert even 60% of his FGs and rebound at the same or better level than last year, we won't notice any significant dropoff.

Remember, Luke only hit double-digits in scoring once in our last 7 games. Of those 7 games, he fouled out in 3 and was sitting on 4 fouls in 3 more. Matt will have to improve his fouling, but it's not like Luke was some indomitable force down the stretch, he became a bit player.

At the same time, the offense was just fine. With Markus, Rowsey, and Hauser all back, we won't need Matt to be what Luke was at his best, just what Luke was down the stretch. That's certainly within his capabilities not just to achieve, but to exceed.
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dgies9156

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2017, 09:01:29 PM »
We are the most mysterious team in the conference. I honestly believe we could finish from third to seventh depending on a couple of variables that have yet to play out. They are:

1) The Michigan trio -- If they're the real thing, we should be very physical and very good. They're freshmen, so it is hard to gauge what we will get from them, but if they're as good as advertised, we'll be much improved underneath and have more depth.

2) Haani -- Do we get the Haani of two years ago or last year. If it is two years ago, we'll be in great shape. If it's last year, Haani may be who leaves to make room for QG. I'm voting for two years ago.

3) Froling -- Again, we have depth and I suspect that either Heldt steps up or he'll be backing up Froling by Christmas.

4) Defense -- It can't be worse and with a year of coaching, here's hoping it's better.

All said, I'm guessing 21-9 or 22-8 with penetration to at least the second week and maybe the third. Depends on the unknowns.


TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Preseason predictions
« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2017, 09:56:13 PM »
I know no one believes this, but I'll say it again. Statistically, Haanif was a better overall player last season than he was as a freshman. The difference between the two was that he played for a crappy team his first year where we had no better options and he played for a good team his second year with better options.
TAMU

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