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Author Topic: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology  (Read 7148 times)

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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[Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« on: August 16, 2017, 10:15:44 AM »
https://painttouches.com/2017/08/16/way-too-early-bracketology-summer-2017/

It's mostly guesswork (educated guesswork) but what the hell else do we have going on during the summer? Would love thoughts and opinions.
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wadesworld

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2017, 10:36:12 AM »
I see Arizona, Duke, and Michigan State as 1 seeds.  The 4th is very up in the air.  I might go Nova but I'm not sold on them as a very first tier team.  Dark horse would be Florida.

I think you're too low on Seton Hall, North Carolina, Gonzaga (mainly because they'll lose at most 1 conference game and get 30 wins so they'll get a top 4 seed) and Kentucky and too high on Xavier, TCU, and Providence.  I know people love USC but I'm not a believer at all.  They'll be good, but I don't see them as a top 3 seed personally.
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MomofMUltiples

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2017, 12:37:39 PM »
I'm not convinced everyone is correct in counting Wisconsin out this year. They always seem to find a way in.  I'm predicting them to have no lower than a 10 seed.
I mean, OK, maybe he's secretly a serial killer who's pulled the wool over our eyes with his good deeds and smooth jumper - Pakuni (on Markus Howard)

wadesworld

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2017, 12:47:22 PM »
I'm not convinced everyone is correct in counting Wisconsin out this year. They always seem to find a way in.  I'm predicting them to have no lower than a 10 seed.

+1.  I didn't even realize that.  They'll be a 6 seed or higher.  They always are.
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Badgerhater

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2017, 01:12:43 PM »
With all the bad teams in the Big Everybody, all they have to do is be better than average and not have horrible losses.

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2017, 01:27:57 PM »
I'm not convinced everyone is correct in counting Wisconsin out this year. They always seem to find a way in.  I'm predicting them to have no lower than a 10 seed.
+1. They seem to reload year after year.

PaintTouches

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2017, 01:50:02 PM »
Did y'all not read the article? Ryan specifically noted the UW exception.

"Wisconsin on paper should not be a tournament team next season after losing four starters. But I can’t disagree with Joe that they will end up making it."

bilsu

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2017, 01:52:26 PM »
I guess we will see how valuable a coach is. My prediction is Butler losing their coach will result in them not getting a bid. I am not impressed with their new hire.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2017, 02:01:53 PM »
+1.  I didn't even realize that.  They'll be a 6 seed or higher.  They always are.

Haven't been either of the last two years
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wadesworld

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2017, 02:11:19 PM »
Haven't been either of the last two years

Fair point.  I should've said they always finish in the top 4 of the B1G and that will always land them in the NCAA Tournament and almost always land them with a top 6 seed.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2017, 02:24:48 PM »
Fair point.  I should've said they always finish in the top 4 of the B1G and that will always land them in the NCAA Tournament and almost always land them with a top 6 seed.

Yup that's true

And I do agree that they will get it

Do think that this is the year they don't finish top 4 though.
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GB Warrior

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2017, 02:27:36 PM »
You added an extra "1" to our seed.

brewcity77

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2017, 02:50:37 PM »
+1.  I didn't even realize that.  They'll be a 6 seed or higher.  They always are.

They have literally never been a 6 or higher under Gard. Selection Sunday was like 5 months ago and they were an 8-seed.
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wadesworld

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2017, 02:56:44 PM »
They have literally never been a 6 or higher under Gard. Selection Sunday was like 5 months ago and they were an 8-seed.

Thanks.  Already addressed.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2017, 05:37:50 PM »
I'm not convinced everyone is correct in counting Wisconsin out this year. They always seem to find a way in.  I'm predicting them to have no lower than a 10 seed.

+1.  I didn't even realize that.  They'll be a 6 seed or higher.  They always are.

+1. They seem to reload year after year.

Can't disagree with any of you. In fact, in the article I talked about how I thought Wisconsin was going to be in the tournament. But for the purposes of this article, I really focused on how the teams looked on paper. I didn't include any unwritten rules like "Wisconsin always makes the tournament" or "Kansas always wins the Big 12" (though I do have Kansas winning the Big 12 anyway).

I will push back a little though and say that we don't know that the "Wisconsin always makes the tournament" will apply to Gard. His first season he turned around a struggling squad midseason, but in the end they finished about where most had them in the preseason polls. In his second season, I would say the Badgers got a much lower seed than most expected at the beginning of the season. Gard has yet to prove that he has the same magic that Bo had where he could redshirt a no name three star only to have them come back as a stud the following year. I think they will unfortunately be fine but I'm waiting to pass judgement.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2017, 05:52:09 PM »
I see Arizona, Duke, and Michigan State as 1 seeds.  The 4th is very up in the air.  I might go Nova but I'm not sold on them as a very first tier team.  Dark horse would be Florida.

I think you're too low on Seton Hall, North Carolina, Gonzaga (mainly because they'll lose at most 1 conference game and get 30 wins so they'll get a top 4 seed) and Kentucky and too high on Xavier, TCU, and Providence.  I know people love USC but I'm not a believer at all.  They'll be good, but I don't see them as a top 3 seed personally.

If it matters, Duke and Michigan State are my top two seeds, so we're not far off on those two. North Carolina might have three seed talent but I'm concerned about their inside presence. Anyone with size from last year's team is gowne and the bigs they bring in are of the "three stars who need some seasoning" variety.

Gonzaga is a tough one to place. Your right about them racking up a lot of wins in the WCC, outside of St. Mary's there are no teams remotely close to tournament worthy. But I based this on who the actual best teams were, rather than trying to guess at who's favorable schedule could get them a higher or lower seed. Gonzaga is a team with 7 seed level talent IMHO but could defintely seem them getting a higher seed simply because no one outside of St. Mary's can beat them. They haven't released their non-conference schedule yet, will be interesting to see how they handle it.

I love the look of USC. NCAA team that returns everyone, adds a former 5 star transfer from Duke, and a top 50 freshman? Yes please.
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muwarrior69

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2017, 06:07:18 PM »
MU/Wisconsin in the championship game. Hauser and Howard go H-bomb crazy sinking 15 3s each with Rowsey sinking 20 3s. Held has a triple double while Haani has 16 steals. We coast to NC.

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Herman Cain

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2017, 09:04:45 PM »
If Gabe Levin returns from his injury, Long Beach State may make some noise in the Big West.
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2017, 09:44:35 PM »
Dont sleep on St. Johns
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2017, 09:47:27 PM »
If Gabe Levin returns from his injury, Long Beach State may make some noise in the Big West.

I love me some Gabe Levin but Long Beach State lost all 5 of last year's starters to transfer/graduation. That's a helluva lot to replace.
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hdog1017

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2017, 09:55:45 PM »
I see Marquette as more of a 12 seed and not an 11. 

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2017, 10:36:03 PM »
I see Marquette as more of a 12 seed and not an 11.

What mid major conference do you see having a team good enough to deserve higher than a 12 seed besides the A10 and WCC? With the fall of the Missouri Valley and Mountain West, at large bids should all end up as 11 seeds or lower.
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dgies9156

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2017, 10:38:35 PM »
A couple of thoughts:

1) Not sure how but the Red Rodent will be there. Just is the way it is. Would love to make the NCAAs and watch the rodent at the NIT but it will not happen.

2) Too much uncertainty right now. Nonetheless, if the predictions bear out and 70 percent of the Big East goes to the tournament, that's saying something about our competition. Are you listening Hillbilly?

3) I see the world through Blue and Gold glasses. I'm cautiously optimistic about this team. The Michigan Trio needs to distinguish itself and Hanni needs to return to freshman form. I think our upside is a 6 seed and our downside is an NIT game at the Al. We have more upside than downside at this juncture, but we shall see.


Herman Cain

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2017, 11:33:57 PM »
I see us somewhere between 3rd and 5th in the Big East. Villanova and Seton Hall will be the front runners. We have the capability of being  among the best of the rest.  That kind of performance should get us in the tournament provided we hold our own in the  non conference .

MU, with our proven 3 point capability,  is going to be the kind of team no one wants to face .

I am really looking forward to the season.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2017, 06:11:52 AM »
I see us somewhere between 3rd and 5th in the Big East. Villanova and Seton Hall will be the front runners.

Providence could win the league. They return everyone from last year's team that won their last 6 in Big East play. Will likely start 4 seniors while also adding top-50 recruit Makai Ashton-Langford.
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Herman Cain

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2017, 07:30:29 AM »
Providence could win the league. They return everyone from last year's team that won their last 6 in Big East play. Will likely start 4 seniors while also adding top-50 recruit Makai Ashton-Langford.
Ed Cooley is an excellent  coach and I enjoy our rivalry with The Friars.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2017, 08:45:39 AM »
I think people are sleeping on Xavier as well. Yes they went into a tailspin when Sumner got hurt,  but after they had some games to figure it out (and get Blueitt fully healthy) they made the semi finals of the BEast tourney and the Elite Eight. I think that is who they really are, not the team that was reeling from injuries. Add the best recruiting class in the BEast and a solid grad transfer in Kanter and I think you have solid squad.

To me it is clear that Nova,  X,  Providence,  and Hall are the top 4 in the BEast. Creighton,  Butler,  and Marquette are basically interchangeable at 5-7. St. John's is close to that trio but I don't believe theyre a tourney team yet. Depaul and Georgetown will share the basement.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2017, 09:00:58 AM »
Xavier, Butler, and Creighton all have the same dilemma. Who runs the point? Is Paul Scruggs ready to go from day one? Who replaces Lewis/Savage/Woodson? Is Kaleb Joseph the next Maurice Watson or just the guy that flamed out at Syracuse?

4-8 in the league is very interesting, but I'm glad that at least we know who'll have the ball in their hands.
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GB Warrior

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #28 on: August 17, 2017, 09:11:14 AM »
I think people are sleeping on Xavier as well. Yes they went into a tailspin when Sumner got hurt,  but after they had some games to figure it out (and get Blueitt fully healthy) they made the semi finals of the BEast tourney and the Elite Eight. I think that is who they really are, not the team that was reeling from injuries. Add the best recruiting class in the BEast and a solid grad transfer in Kanter and I think you have solid squad.

To me it is clear that Nova,  X,  Providence,  and Hall are the top 4 in the BEast. Creighton,  Butler,  and Marquette are basically interchangeable at 5-7. St. John's is close to that trio but I don't believe theyre a tourney team yet. Depaul and Georgetown will share the basement.

+1 on X.

This league is not going to be completely and utterly dominated by Nova as it has been the past couple of years. Should be fun.

We R Final Four

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #29 on: August 17, 2017, 09:50:20 AM »
I am not going to pencil DePaul as the co-basement dwellers, along with GT. I think they will be improved and sneak up and bite some teams.

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #30 on: August 17, 2017, 09:58:32 AM »
I just hope we don't lose a secret scrimmage, 'cuz that could bump us out of the field....

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #31 on: August 17, 2017, 11:05:52 AM »
Xavier, Butler, and Creighton all have the same dilemma. Who runs the point? Is Paul Scruggs ready to go from day one? Who replaces Lewis/Savage/Woodson? Is Kaleb Joseph the next Maurice Watson or just the guy that flamed out at Syracuse?

4-8 in the league is very interesting, but I'm glad that at least we know who'll have the ball in their hands.

After the Sumner injury, Quintin Goodin put up 7.2 ppg, 5.3 apg, and 1.1 spg as a true freshmen. I think with a year's experience and a summer preparing to be the lead guard, I don't think X will have a problem with Goodin at the point.

Butler has Paul Jorgensen, a transfer from George Washington, but he wasn't all that impressive at a lesser school. Could see some trouble there.

Creighton has Kaleb Joseph. Not sure about him. He started for Syracuse as a true freshmen but then saw all of his minutes disappear as a sophomore, getting only 7 minutes a game. If he used the year off to improve on his freshmen year stats he could be solid. I thought Marcus Foster wasn't worth all the hype because he had a down sophomore year (after a stellar freshman year) before transferring to Creighton. I was wrong on that one.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2017, 02:49:30 PM »
One thing I am convinced of - the Big East is going to be really really good. 1-8 are legit top 50 teams, with the chance for 4-5 top 20 type teams. Even DePaul should be improved and while Georgetown is definitely a dumpster fire, they still have some very talented big men.

This has the makings of arguelably being the best league in the country from top to bottom - again. I think it's safe to say that the this league is here to stay amongst the country's best every season.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2017, 03:17:14 PM »
One thing I am convinced of - the Big East is going to be really really good. 1-8 are legit top 50 teams, with the chance for 4-5 top 20 type teams. Even DePaul should be improved and while Georgetown is definitely a dumpster fire, they still have some very talented big men.

This has the makings of arguelably being the best league in the country from top to bottom - again. I think it's safe to say that the this league is here to stay amongst the country's best every season.

The only definite top 20 team I see is Villanova. I think Xavier is top 20 but could be wrong. I see Providence and Hall as top 30 teams and Creighton/Marquette/Butler as top 45 teams. I don't believe in St. John's yet, they will be improved but I still see them as more of a top 75 team than a top 50. Depaul will be improved but still sub 100.

Top to bottom best conference is Big 12 easily. Two top 10 teams in Kansas and West Virginia. Two other top 25 teams in TCU and Baylor. I could make arguments for OK State, Texas Tech, TU, K State, OU, and IA State to all be top 50 teams this season. That's the entire conference btw. One or two will undoubtably sink to the bottom (my guess is Oklahoma and Iowa State) but they will still be top 100.

SEC is also making a surprising surge. They lack great teams at the top but I think all 14 teams are among the 100 best in D1. I dedicate a paragraph to it in the article.

ACC also has a strong argument. They have two top 10 (probably top 5) in Louisville and Duke. North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, and Notre Dame all belong in or very close to the top 25. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are both top 40 teams. Florida State and Clemson could both be top 50. Georgia Tech and Syracuse should both be top 75 or at least top 100. They are just weighed down by a bad NC State team and two horrendous teams in Boston College and Pitt.

The Big East will be stronger than all the mid-majors (including the American), the PAC 12, and the Big 10 for sure. I think the SEC has a better bottom this season but the Big East will be better overall. I'd give the B12 the top spot, followed by the ACC, and then the Big East.
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Herman Cain

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Re: [Paint Touches] WAY Too Early Bracketology
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2017, 07:16:23 PM »
The only definite top 20 team I see is Villanova. I think Xavier is top 20 but could be wrong. I see Providence and Hall as top 30 teams and Creighton/Marquette/Butler as top 45 teams. I don't believe in St. John's yet, they will be improved but I still see them as more of a top 75 team than a top 50. Depaul will be improved but still sub 100.

Top to bottom best conference is Big 12 easily. Two top 10 teams in Kansas and West Virginia. Two other top 25 teams in TCU and Baylor. I could make arguments for OK State, Texas Tech, TU, K State, OU, and IA State to all be top 50 teams this season. That's the entire conference btw. One or two will undoubtably sink to the bottom (my guess is Oklahoma and Iowa State) but they will still be top 100.

SEC is also making a surprising surge. They lack great teams at the top but I think all 14 teams are among the 100 best in D1. I dedicate a paragraph to it in the article.

ACC also has a strong argument. They have two top 10 (probably top 5) in Louisville and Duke. North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, and Notre Dame all belong in or very close to the top 25. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are both top 40 teams. Florida State and Clemson could both be top 50. Georgia Tech and Syracuse should both be top 75 or at least top 100. They are just weighed down by a bad NC State team and two horrendous teams in Boston College and Pitt.

The Big East will be stronger than all the mid-majors (including the American), the PAC 12, and the Big 10 for sure. I think the SEC has a better bottom this season but the Big East will be better overall. I'd give the B12 the top spot, followed by the ACC, and then the Big East.
Looking forward to your top 50 players of the Big East analysis again this season.
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