ESPN's Lundari has a 2018 bracket update!

[Dawson Rental]

Agree that there are no powerhouses after Michigan State. But a lot of teams should be an up swing after last year. MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all look like they will be better in 17-18 than they were in 16-17. Purdue, Michigan, and Maryland still look like tourney teams even if they aren't improving. Wisconsin is one of the few that looks like they will be trending down.

At the moment, they look like a 6-9th place team in the B1G to me. I think MSU, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana all look significantly better. But this is Wisconsin we are talking about. They always seem to pull something out of their arse.

IIRC, Wisconsin has never finished worse than fourth in the Big Ten during the Beauregard era. 



Bo plus Gard = Beauregard.  Get it?

[Tugg Speedman]

Agree that there are no powerhouses after Michigan State. But a lot of teams should be an up swing after last year. MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all look like they will be better in 17-18 than they were in 16-17. Purdue, Michigan, and Maryland still look like tourney teams even if they aren't improving. Wisconsin is one of the few that looks like they will be trending down.

At the moment, they look like a 6-9th place team in the B1G to me. I think MSU, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana all look significantly better. But this is Wisconsin we are talking about. They always seem to pull something out of their arse.

Since 2001 (Bo's first year) Bucky has never finished worse than 4th in the regular season.  They were second last year.

The last time they finished 6th was 1999 under Dick Bennett.  The last time they finished 9th was 1997 under Dick Bennett.

From 1947 to 1997 (50 years!) Bucky has one NCAA appearance ... 1994.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Badgers_men%27s_basketball

So, a 6th to 9th place year in the Big Ten would be their worst performance in decades. 

And your analysis is spot-on.  Who in your list is Bucky going to beat to finish again in the top 4 and secure a post-season bid?

[brewcity77]

I actually agree with Heisy that I think Bucky will have a down year. As of this moment they look like an NIT team to me. However, also agree with Brew that them as an 8 seed is not shocking at this point. They are nothing if not consistent.

I can completely see Bucky having a down year. Just like I did after Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor left in 2007. The next year they went 31-5 and made the Sweet 16. Just like I did when Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz left in 2011 and Josh Gasser had a season ending injury before the next year began. Yet the next year, 26-10 and back to the Sweet 16. When Evans, Brusewitz, and Berggren left in 2013, it was certainly over. All that was left was Dekker and some scrubs! Nope, the next year they went to the Final Four. And when Kaminsky, Gasser, Jackson, Dukan, and Dekker all left after they went 36-4 in the 2015 runner-up season? They started like crap, Bo resigned in disgrace, and they STILL made the damn Sweet 16!

So yes, on paper, I could see this being a down year. But for the past decade, nearly every other year has looked on paper like a "down year" and they keep having great seasons and making deep tournament runs. So no matter what they look like on paper, no pundit is going to pick them to the NIT. Because the way things go in Madison, Happ will be NPOY, Trice and Iverson will be certified studs, and someone you've never heard of, either a freshman, former walk-on, or redshirt, will turn into a completely reliable 30+ mpg guy who plays incredible defense and never seems to make mistakes on offense.

Might they be a NIT team? Sure. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it, and I'm damn sure you won't see many if any professionals picking them to be a bottom-half team in their league and missing the Dance.

[Lennys Tap]

I can completely see Bucky having a down year. Just like I did after Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor left in 2007. The next year they went 31-5 and made the Sweet 16. Just like I did when Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz left in 2011 and Josh Gasser had a season ending injury before the next year began. Yet the next year, 26-10 and back to the Sweet 16. When Evans, Brusewitz, and Berggren left in 2013, it was certainly over. All that was left was Dekker and some scrubs! Nope, the next year they went to the Final Four. And when Kaminsky, Gasser, Jackson, Dukan, and Dekker all left after they went 36-4 in the 2015 runner-up season? They started like crap, Bo resigned in disgrace, and they STILL made the damn Sweet 16!

So yes, on paper, I could see this being a down year. But for the past decade, nearly every other year has looked on paper like a "down year" and they keep having great seasons and making deep tournament runs. So no matter what they look like on paper, no pundit is going to pick them to the NIT. Because the way things go in Madison, Happ will be NPOY, Trice and Iverson will be certified studs, and someone you've never heard of, either a freshman, former walk-on, or redshirt, will turn into a completely reliable 30+ mpg guy who plays incredible defense and never seems to make mistakes on offense.

Might they be a NIT team? Sure. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it, and I'm damn sure you won't see many if any professionals picking them to be a bottom-half team in their league and missing the Dance.

Much as I hate Wisky, I have to agree with this assessment - until/unless they prove otherwise, assume they'll find a way.

[barfolomew]

I can completely see Bucky having a down year. Just like I did after Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor left in 2007. The next year they went 31-5 and made the Sweet 16. Just like I did when Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz left in 2011 and Josh Gasser had a season ending injury before the next year began. Yet the next year, 26-10 and back to the Sweet 16. When Evans, Brusewitz, and Berggren left in 2013, it was certainly over. All that was left was Dekker and some scrubs! Nope, the next year they went to the Final Four. And when Kaminsky, Gasser, Jackson, Dukan, and Dekker all left after they went 36-4 in the 2015 runner-up season? They started like crap, Bo resigned in disgrace, and they STILL made the damn Sweet 16!

So yes, on paper, I could see this being a down year. But for the past decade, nearly every other year has looked on paper like a "down year" and they keep having great seasons and making deep tournament runs. So no matter what they look like on paper, no pundit is going to pick them to the NIT. Because the way things go in Madison, Happ will be NPOY, Trice and Iverson will be certified studs, and someone you've never heard of, either a freshman, former walk-on, or redshirt, will turn into a completely reliable 30+ mpg guy who plays incredible defense and never seems to make mistakes on offense.

Might they be a NIT team? Sure. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it, and I'm damn sure you won't see many if any professionals picking them to be a bottom-half team in their league and missing the Dance.

Isn't it obvious yet, people?
Wisconsin made TAMUEagle's proverbial "deal with the devil" over Bud Lights a decade ago.
We know which way they chose.

[brewcity77]

Isn't it obvious yet, people?
Wisconsin made TAMUEagle's proverbial "deal with the devil" over Bud Lights a decade ago.
We know which way they chose.

Honestly, that feels just about exactly right 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can completely see Bucky having a down year. Just like I did after Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor left in 2007. The next year they went 31-5 and made the Sweet 16. Just like I did when Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz left in 2011 and Josh Gasser had a season ending injury before the next year began. Yet the next year, 26-10 and back to the Sweet 16. When Evans, Brusewitz, and Berggren left in 2013, it was certainly over. All that was left was Dekker and some scrubs! Nope, the next year they went to the Final Four. And when Kaminsky, Gasser, Jackson, Dukan, and Dekker all left after they went 36-4 in the 2015 runner-up season? They started like crap, Bo resigned in disgrace, and they STILL made the damn Sweet 16!

So yes, on paper, I could see this being a down year. But for the past decade, nearly every other year has looked on paper like a "down year" and they keep having great seasons and making deep tournament runs. So no matter what they look like on paper, no pundit is going to pick them to the NIT. Because the way things go in Madison, Happ will be NPOY, Trice and Iverson will be certified studs, and someone you've never heard of, either a freshman, former walk-on, or redshirt, will turn into a completely reliable 30+ mpg guy who plays incredible defense and never seems to make mistakes on offense.

Might they be a NIT team? Sure. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it, and I'm damn sure you won't see many if any professionals picking them to be a bottom-half team in their league and missing the Dance.

8
6
12
2

I know, I have been right there with you. But I think there is a difference this year that might be easily overlooked. The teams you mentioned were elite before losing a bunch of players. Look at their KenPom rankings:

07: 8th
11: 6th
13: 12th
15: 2nd

Essentially, they had a long way to fall. And their scrubs who became studs the next year were only scrubs because they had better players playing in front of them. Once the seniors graduated, there were talented players waiting in the wings to take over.

This year's Wisconsin was not as talented. They were ranked 21st by KenPom (still very good but not elite like previous years). I am not as convinced that the scrubs from this past year are as talented as the scrubs on previous Wisconsin teams were.

We will see how it plays out. On paper, I'm penciling them in as a bubble/NIT team. Would not be shocked to see them get a 7 seed though. Wisconsin does seem to have a way about them.

[brewcity77]

Sure, but where did they "fall" to?

2007 #8 > 2008 #5
2011 #6 > 2012 #8
2013 #12 > 2014 #5
2015 #2 > 2015 #38

Half the time, their expected fall resulted in a higher rated season. One time the difference was negligible. Only once did they actually fall off.

And my greater point is not talking about what WILL happen but WHY pundits won't pick them to fall. Every time in the past decade and a half they've been predicted to fall off, they ended up not just exceeding, but generally shattering expectations. So why would Rothstein not pick them to be an 8-seed? He'd be crazy not to. I could see them as high as a 2-seed if they win the Big 10 with an All-American leading the way. And they could absolutely still win the Big 10, because that's just what they do.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sure, but where did they "fall" to?

2007 #8 > 2008 #5
2011 #6 > 2012 #8
2013 #12 > 2014 #5
2015 #2 > 2015 #38

Half the time, their expected fall resulted in a higher rated season. One time the difference was negligible. Only once did they actually fall off.

And my greater point is not talking about what WILL happen but WHY pundits won't pick them to fall. Every time in the past decade and a half they've been predicted to fall off, they ended up not just exceeding, but generally shattering expectations. So why would Rothstein not pick them to be an 8-seed? He'd be crazy not to. I could see them as high as a 2-seed if they win the Big 10 with an All-American leading the way. And they could absolutely still win the Big 10, because that's just what they do.

Completely agree. Picking Wisconsin to miss the tournament is like someone besides Kansas to not win the Big 12. Every once in a while someone will so they can a make a bold prediction that no one will remember if they are wrong but they can brag about if they're right. I understand why the pundits have Bucky as an 8 seed but I also understand why Heisy thinks that's too high.

Interesting enough, when I finish my way too early bracket for PT, I think I will predict both the Kansas won't win the Big 12 and that Bucky won't make the tournament. DOUBLE BOLD PREDICTION!

[MU82]

I can completely see Bucky having a down year. Just like I did after Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor left in 2007. The next year they went 31-5 and made the Sweet 16. Just like I did when Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz left in 2011 and Josh Gasser had a season ending injury before the next year began. Yet the next year, 26-10 and back to the Sweet 16. When Evans, Brusewitz, and Berggren left in 2013, it was certainly over. All that was left was Dekker and some scrubs! Nope, the next year they went to the Final Four. And when Kaminsky, Gasser, Jackson, Dukan, and Dekker all left after they went 36-4 in the 2015 runner-up season? They started like crap, Bo resigned in disgrace, and they STILL made the damn Sweet 16!

So yes, on paper, I could see this being a down year. But for the past decade, nearly every other year has looked on paper like a "down year" and they keep having great seasons and making deep tournament runs. So no matter what they look like on paper, no pundit is going to pick them to the NIT. Because the way things go in Madison, Happ will be NPOY, Trice and Iverson will be certified studs, and someone you've never heard of, either a freshman, former walk-on, or redshirt, will turn into a completely reliable 30+ mpg guy who plays incredible defense and never seems to make mistakes on offense.

Might they be a NIT team? Sure. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it, and I'm damn sure you won't see many if any professionals picking them to be a bottom-half team in their league and missing the Dance.

This is reasonable, of course.

Bucky's situation does kind of remind me of the negative nabobs who worried year after year when we would lose our best players. Nobody can replace Novak. Nobody can replace the Amigos. Nobody can replace Lazar (and Acker). Nobody can replace JFB (and Buycks). Nobody can replace Jae and DJO. Etc.

Eventually, though, sometimes that DOES become true ... as it finally did when nobody we had COULD replace Vander, Junior and Lockett. We went from having one of the best backcourts around to having one of the worst in the history of college basketball; even with some good frontcourt players, we couldn't overcome that.

So yes, maybe it is all wishful Warrior thinking that this could finally be the year Bucky takes a major step backward. Or maybe this is their year to have suffered too many losses from the year before and not quite enough coming back and/or freshmen coming in.

[BallBoy]

Keep in mind that Bucky plays in the Big Ten and they are going to get 7-9 teams in every year based on their preseason results.  For Wisconsin to not make the tournament, then one of the following teams needs to step up their games.  Historically, not that likely

Rutgers - Moved from the basement of the BE to the basement of the Big Ten
Nebraska - Need I say more
Penn State - Even the DJ Newbill couldn't get them into the tournament.  Last appear 2011 and then 10 years prior
Illinois - Never consistent and turn over coaches regularly
Iowa - Good years and then bad years. 
Northwestern - One NCAA Appearance
Minnesota - Better under Pitino but not a power house

If Wisconsin is in front of just five of those teams there is a very good chance they make the tournament.  If Michigan, OSU, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana etc have off years, Wisconsin is in.  The Big Ten is made for a decent team to make the tourney every year.

[muwarrior69]

Every time they lose a handful of stars, which seems to happen every 2-3 years, all of Marquetteland is all too happy to predict their demise. And every time, they bounce back and earn a bid. Betting against them has been a fool's gambit for the better part of two decades, but hey, don't let me stop you.

Yep! I cheer my Warriors on, but being removed from the vitriol that some on both sides of the rivalry have I don't view UW through blue and gold glasses. Their program over that last 20 years deserves our respect. Let's hope Wojo can recruit at least on an equal footing in Wisconsin and earn their respect by building a consistently winning program which is so much more satisfying than seeing your rival lose. Of course UW loosing to MU is always satisfying.

[brewcity77]

Keep in mind that Bucky plays in the Big Ten and they are going to get 7-9 teams in every year based on their preseason results.  For Wisconsin to not make the tournament, then one of the following teams needs to step up their games.  Historically, not that likely

Rutgers - Moved from the basement of the BE to the basement of the Big Ten
Nebraska - Need I say more
Penn State - Even the DJ Newbill couldn't get them into the tournament.  Last appear 2011 and then 10 years prior
Illinois - Never consistent and turn over coaches regularly
Iowa - Good years and then bad years. 
Northwestern - One NCAA Appearance
Minnesota - Better under Pitino but not a power house

If Wisconsin is in front of just five of those teams there is a very good chance they make the tournament.  If Michigan, OSU, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana etc have off years, Wisconsin is in.  The Big Ten is made for a decent team to make the tourney every year.

For what it's worth, Minnesota will likely be a top-15 team preseason while Northwestern returns virtually everyone from a tourney team. At a glance, it seems Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern are solid tournament teams. After that, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa probably have the rosters to compete for tourney spots. I think Wisconsin fairly comfortably finishes ahead of Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, and Indiana, but there isn't anyone else in the league I'd say it's a given that they beat out.

[AverageJoe]

This is a lot of energy spent talking about UW on a MU board.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is a lot of energy spent talking about UW on a MU board.

Well they're our highest rival and it's the off-season. What do you expect?

[MU82]

Keep in mind that Bucky plays in the Big Ten and they are going to get 7-9 teams in every year based on their preseason results.  For Wisconsin to not make the tournament, then one of the following teams needs to step up their games.  Historically, not that likely

Rutgers - Moved from the basement of the BE to the basement of the Big Ten
Nebraska - Need I say more
Penn State - Even the DJ Newbill couldn't get them into the tournament.  Last appear 2011 and then 10 years prior
Illinois - Never consistent and turn over coaches regularly
Iowa - Good years and then bad years. 
Northwestern - One NCAA Appearance
Minnesota - Better under Pitino but not a power house

If Wisconsin is in front of just five of those teams there is a very good chance they make the tournament.  If Michigan, OSU, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana etc have off years, Wisconsin is in.  The Big Ten is made for a decent team to make the tourney every year.

This is all true.

Of course, it was true for Indiana last season, too.

Crud happens.

[hdog1017]

On my bracket update I have Creighton as an 8 instead of a 9. 

[BallBoy]

This is all true.

Of course, it was true for Indiana last season, too.

Crud happens.

you are right crud happens...but middle of the road in the Big Ten gets you in.  We aren't talking about the Final Four but tournament entrance.

Indiana hasn't had nearly as consistent success as Wisconsin. 

[Newsdreams]

On my bracket update I have Creighton as an 8 instead of a 9.

Guess you might need to revise after today's news?

[Tugg Speedman]

Worth revisiting

Love Brew and Lens comments