A look back at preseason predictions

[Marcus92]

Where was Marquette predicted to finish in the Big East last season? I just happen to have made some screen caps last fall answering that very question. (Attached in the following posts.)

Of the 9 predictions here, 5 picked MU to finish 7th. Athlon and Matchup Zone predicted 5th in the conference. Garry Parrish predicted 6th. Matt Norlander predicted 8th. Those that specified the number of total regular season or conference wins were surprisingly close.

[Marcus92]

Athlon's prediction: a 5th place Big East finish.

[Marcus92]

CBS was short on specifics, not on opinions.

[Marcus92]

KenPom picked MU to finish 18-11, 9-9 in Big East play (7th in the conference).

[Marcus92]

Matchup Zone picked MU to finish 17-12, 9-9 (5th in the Big East).

[Marcus92]

Sports Illustrated picked us for 7th in the Big East (9-9).

[Marcus92]

T-Rank picked Marquette to finish 17-12, 9-9 (7th in the Big East).

[Marcus92]

A couple more:

USA Today (8th in the Big East):
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/bigeast/2016/10/31/big-east-conference-college-basketball-season-preview-2016-17/92788038/

Big East coaches (7th):
http://www.bigeast.com/news/2016/10/10/MBB_1010164924.aspx

[bilsu]

Had Creighton and Xavier not lost their point guards a 7th place finish would of been correct.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Had Creighton and Xavier not lost their point guards a 7th place finish would of been correct.

Impossible to know.  Providence also benefitted from those injuries. And you never know if either Sumner or Watson would have played poorly. Marquette might win even if they played even well. But we'll never know.

[bilsu]

Impossible to know.  Providence also benefitted from those injuries. And you never know if either Sumner or Watson would have played poorly. Marquette might win even if they played even well. But we'll never know.

True, but without looking I expect no other team had 4 games against those teams after the injuries. The schedule broke perfectly for MU.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

True, but without looking I expect no other team had 4 games against those teams after the injuries. The schedule broke perfectly for MU.

I agree that MU benefitted from the way the schedule broke. But the slippery floor game at Providence was a bit of bad luck. We could play the what if game all day.  What if JJJ didn't give Georgetown bulletin board material by calling their defense lazy? What if Wojo would have drawn up a play for Rowsey at the end of the first Providence game? And, so on...

[warriorchick]

Who is going to post the preseason Scooper predictions? 

[barfolomew]

Who is going to post the preseason Scooper predictions?

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=52524.0

23% of scoopers correctly predicted the Nova upset.
A high number even with B&G goggles on.

[bilsu]

I agree that MU benefitted from the way the schedule broke. But the slippery floor game at Providence was a bit of bad luck. We could play the what if game all day.  What if JJJ didn't give Georgetown bulletin board material by calling their defense lazy? What if Wojo would have drawn up a play for Rowsey at the end of the first Providence game? And, so on...

We definitely got screwed in that game. The refs gave the ball back to Providence several times and I do not remember them giving it back to us at all.
They slipped on offense and it did not matter if we slipped on defense. Providence did slip more, because they tried to drive, so it did have an effect on their game.
Outside shooting kept us from slipping, but we were not given any second chances.

[Jay Bee]

We definitely got screwed in that game. The refs gave the ball back to Providence several times and I do not remember them giving it back to us at all.
They slipped on offense and it did not matter if we slipped on defense. Providence did slip more, because they tried to drive, so it did have an effect on their game.
Outside shooting kept us from slipping, but we were not given any second chances.

The slipping rules were stupid, but Wojo agreed to them

[Marcus92]

It's pretty amazing they agreed to tip off, let alone finish the game. Those were by far the most dangerous playing conditions I've ever witnessed on a basketball court. Fortunate nobody got hurt.

[MU82]

Impossible to know.  Providence also benefitted from those injuries. And you never know if either Sumner or Watson would have played poorly. Marquette might win even if they played even well. But we'll never know.

This.

The only thing we can know for certain is what happened. We could have won several games we lost and could have lost several games we won.

[Lennys Tap]

This.

The only thing we can know for certain is what happened. We could have won several games we lost and could have lost several games we won.

Of course. OTOH, there is a mountain of evidence to suggest that Creighton (with Watson) and Xavier (with Sumner and Bluiett) were much better than us. The odds of going 4-0 against them would have been staggering.

And if Scoop limits its discussions to what we "know" this would be a nearly empty and exceedingly boring place to visit.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

True, but without looking I expect no other team had 4 games against those teams after the injuries. The schedule broke perfectly for MU.

A completely reasonable hypothesis. I could also make the argument that if those injuries hadn't happened we still could have gone 4-0 against them and the wins would have been a lot more impressive possibly leading to higher seeding. Maybe even 3-1 would have been just as impressive. I mean we smoked Xavier twice, the Creighton games were closer but we led both nearly coast to coast IIRC. Impossible to know how those games would have ended up. So its possible the injuries hurt us.

[MU82]

We lost quite a few games after Haani's confidence was badly sprained!

[Lennys Tap]

A completely reasonable hypothesis. I could also make the argument that if those injuries hadn't happened we still could have gone 4-0 against them and the wins would have been a lot more impressive possibly leading to higher seeding. Maybe even 3-1 would have been just as impressive. I mean we smoked Xavier twice, the Creighton games were closer but we led both nearly coast to coast IIRC. Impossible to know how those games would have ended up. So its possible the injuries hurt us.

You could make the argument we would have gone 4-0 vs Xavier and Creighton if they hadn't lost their best players. And you could make the argument that those injuries hurt us (and I guess by extension helped Xavier and Creighton). They would be silly arguments with no basis in fact, but you could make them. In fact, you just did!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You could make the argument we would have gone 4-0 vs Xavier and Creighton if they hadn't lost their best players. And you could make the argument that those injuries hurt us (and I guess by extension helped Xavier and Creighton). They would be silly arguments with no basis in fact, but you could make them. In fact, you just did!

They are silly with no basis in fact. Just as saying we would go 0-4 against them would be silly with no basis in fact. Unless you have the ability to see alternate dimensions, there are no facts to be had in this conversation.

[Lennys Tap]

They are silly with no basis in fact. Just as saying we would go 0-4 against them would be silly with no basis in fact. Unless you have the ability to see alternate dimensions, there are no facts to be had in this conversation.

Plenty of facts:

1. Creighton, with Watson, was a better basketball team than us last year.
2. Watson was their best player.
3. They became a much worse team after they lost Watson.
4. We got to play the much worse version of their team twice.
5. We went 2-0 against the much worse version of their team.
6. The odds against us beating Creighton both home and road with Watson would have been slim, by my calculation approximately 15-1.


Deduction: we got lucky, and anyone who doubts it is being foolish.

Regarding Xavier, see above, rinse and repeat subbing Bluiett and Sumner for Watson.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Plenty of facts:

1. Creighton, with Watson, was a better basketball team than us last year.
2. Watson was their best player.
3. They became a much worse team after they lost Watson.
4. We got to play the much worse version of their team twice.
5. We went 2-0 against the much worse version of their team.
6. The odds against us beating Creighton both home and road with Watson would have been slim, by my calculation approximately 15-1.


Deduction: we got lucky, and anyone who doubts it is being foolish.

Regarding Xavier, see above, rinse and repeat subbing Bluiett and Sumner for Watson.

Those are facts. None of them can you get to the conclusion that we would haven't still gone 4-0 against Creighton/Xavier. You can make an educated guess. But that's all it is, a guess. Basketball is not played on paper. We were a significantly better team than Providence last year but we still went 0-2 against them.

Personally, I think we would have gone 3-1 against them if they had been fully healthy. Which probably would have been just as favorable as going 4-0 against them being depleted.