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Author Topic: What will Sam's usage be next season?  (Read 6649 times)

Marcus92

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What will Sam's usage be next season?
« on: May 19, 2017, 12:06:41 AM »
As a freshman, Sam Hauser played more minutes than anyone else on the Marquette roster last season. More than seniors Luke Fischer, JaJuan Johnson or Katin Reinhardt. More than our leading scorer Markus Howard.

He also led the team in offensive rating (28th best in the country per KenPom), turnover percentage (88th best) and defensive rebounding percentage. And believe it or not, Sam was second on the team in blocked shots.

But he was second-to-last on the team in usage, assist rate and free throw attempts. And third lowest on the team in 2-pointers taken (although he made 51.5% of them).

I don't think getting minutes will be an issue. But how big of a role do you think Sam will play in the offense next season? Can he step up to become more than a perimeter shooter by developing his mid-range game, driving to the basket or posting up?
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THRILLHO

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2017, 09:03:21 AM »
Two factors that affect his changing role:

1) New teammates

2) New skill development

For 1), he was mostly playing against bigger guys last year, so we didn't see much of his post up game. When he was matched up with smaller guys, my recollection is he had the IQ to know that he should post them up immediately and scored often. If playing a bigger lineup gives him more minutes at the 3 then his usage could go up with post moves. But that only happens if the freshmen bigs are ready to go, because for the first semester Heldt is our only big with experience.

For 2), I am curious if anyone has any inside info on what he's working on. He's already a great shooter and has a decent mid-range game. Wonder if they'll have him working on driving/slashing? Or on creating his own outside shots (shooting off screens and dribble more, where last year it seemed like he relied on spot up shooting from other people's creating)? I could see the latter getting him more opportunities.


JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2017, 10:00:02 AM »
Sam is going to be a beast this year.  I don't think we'll see him in the frontcourt much at all once BE season starts.  Wouldn't be too surprised to see him score over 12-13 PPG next season.
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Al Davis

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2017, 10:08:29 AM »
Sam has NBA potential if he keeps developing and working on becoming a quicker, more explosive athlete. His jump shot is already pure but if he can keep adding different dimensions to his game (ball handling, driving ability, post-game, 3 point range, defending quicker players )over the course of his MU career, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a lottery pick.

Go Marquette

Jay Bee

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2017, 10:14:41 AM »
If I had to pick a % today... 19%

I see Rowsey & Markus repeating hefty usage rates, with both potentially growing theirs. Then again, more of their time will be togerher (as compared to last year), so will be interesting

Sam's growth can come from JjJ's departure

TAMU Eagle

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2017, 10:26:44 AM »
The low usage is why Sam is my pick for "most likely to disappoint scoopers" next season. His raw numbers should raise but my guess is he'll be less efficient doing it leading to some good old fashion hand wringing and accusations of demotivating.
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lohaus

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2017, 12:53:44 PM »
I anticipate seeing him show more of his mid range game.  I'm sure he will get quicker and more explosive. . . but I can't see him becoming a 'quick and explosive' athlete.  He will show more as he starts to play more 3 than undersized 4.

brewcity77

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2017, 12:56:33 PM »
Higher than last year, but not as high as Scoopers might expect. I think 18-19% will be about right. One thing Sam does well is pick his shots, and I think he'd sooner make an extra pass than force a shot.

A lot will probably hinge on Cheatham or whoever ends up on the wing. Howard and Rowsey will almost certainly get their share, will someone like Haani, Anim, Cain, or Elliott step up to take some of that wing scoring load? If so, I'd expect that to cut primarily into Sam's usage.

bilsu

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2017, 01:26:10 PM »
In my opinion his low usage last year was due to his personality. He simply passed up shots he could of taken as he was focus on only taking wide open shots. As a sophomore he could very well become more aggressive on the offensive end. His usage will not change much, if he does not become more aggressive.

cheebs09

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2017, 01:39:32 PM »
I'm hoping he can use his 3 pt reputation to break down the defense. He started to use a pump fake and a few quick dribbles. If he could turn that into making some mid range shots or getting the defense out of position and swinging it around the 3 pt line, I think he could take a nice step forward.

Marcus92

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2017, 02:24:04 PM »
I'm hoping he can use his 3 pt reputation to break down the defense. He started to use a pump fake and a few quick dribbles. If he could turn that into making some mid range shots or getting the defense out of position and swinging it around the 3 pt line, I think he could take a nice step forward.

Imagine if Sam becomes half as effective with a pump fake as Andrew is. Scary prospect.
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2017, 02:26:46 PM »
Imagine if Sam becomes half as effective with a pump fake as Andrew is. Scary prospect.

Would be terrifying. I think Rowsey benefits from his height in that situation. I think he's so short that defenders get overly excited and think they can destroy his shot. They are wrong in that assumption.
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muwarrior69

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2017, 05:12:00 AM »
I hope he doesn't catch the Haani bug and regresses.

Jay Bee

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2017, 07:23:21 AM »
I hope he doesn't catch the Haani bug and regresses.

You mean that regression bug where Haani's ORtg improved from 101.1 to 106.7, his DR% improved from 10.8% to 14.5%, and his turnover rate decreased from 24.4% to 18.5%?

Expect what some may see as "regression" from several MU players offensively next season. The key is making it up and then some on the defensive end. Sam's shooting and low turnover rate have minimal room for improvement. I think he can get to the line more often, but his 127.8 ORtg rising, especially if we're looking for a hefty jump in his usage, is a bit much to ax, IMO.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2017, 07:49:31 AM »
You mean that regression bug where Haani's ORtg improved from 101.1 to 106.7, his DR% improved from 10.8% to 14.5%, and his turnover rate decreased from 24.4% to 18.5%?

Expect what some may see as "regression" from several MU players offensively next season. The key is making it up and then some on the defensive end. Sam's shooting and low turnover rate have minimal room for improvement. I think he can get to the line more often, but his 127.8 ORtg rising, especially if we're looking for a hefty jump in his usage, is a bit much to ax, IMO.

We discussed this during the regular season, the regressing in conference play is the issue where the kid has been scouted. A drop of Ortg to 93.8 from 95.0. EFg% dropped to 43.3% from 50.6% with trey shooting dipping to 27.8% and deuces at 43.7%. Turnover rate remained at a poor 25.0. Assist rate fell to 11.8% from 13.1. All symptoms that he needs to dimesionalize his game instead of the heads down drive to the hoop game that conference teams adjusted to (and as indicated by his increase in FTR tp 65.2 from 42.9...but that no matta as the defenses sagged off and just guarded his well known driving tendancies).

Now, does he have potential? Yes. Does he give good effort on defense? Yes. As an upperclassman will he need to carry the load against conference teams? Yes

Jay Bee

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2017, 07:58:29 AM »
We discussed this during the regular season, the regressing in conference play is the issue where the kid has been scouted. A drop of Ortg to 93.8 from 95.0. EFg% dropped to 43.3% from 50.6% with trey shooting dipping to 27.8% and deuces at 43.7%. Turnover rate remained at a poor 25.0. Assist rate fell to 11.8% from 13.1. All symptoms that he needs to dimesionalize his game instead of the heads down drive to the hoop game that conference teams adjusted to (and as indicated by his increase in FTR tp 65.2 from 42.9...but that no matta as the defenses sagged off and just guarded his well known driving tendancies).

Now, does he have potential? Yes. Does he give good effort on defense? Yes. As an upperclassman will he need to carry the load against conference teams? Yes

OK, so the scary regression is 95.4 to 93.8 in conference play. Yawn.

His FTR was second best in the conference. (His FT% declined, but that no matta - and at 71% FT in conf, it was still a great offensive possession for him to get to the line, and was a big factor in maintaining his ORtg despite the decline in eFG%).

I see some of Haani's issues as mental as well.. may come back with his mind clear and that stretch of games out of his system.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2017, 08:20:19 AM »
OK, so the scary regression is 95.4 to 93.8 in conference play. Yawn.

His FTR was second best in the conference. (His FT% declined, but that no matta - and at 71% FT in conf, it was still a great offensive possession for him to get to the line, and was a big factor in maintaining his ORtg despite the decline in eFG%).

I see some of Haani's issues as mental as well.. may come back with his mind clear and that stretch of games out of his system.

Well, if you like well below averages, it is a yawn. Wojo didn't and he gave Haani less and less minutes. Compare the opportunity costs to these conference Ortgs: Matt 149.3, Andrew 132.2, Luke 124.4, Katin 123.3, Sam 119.9, Markus 117.3, and then a drop to Du 99.8, JJJ to 98.5...and then Haani to 93.8. Haani didn't improve...it isn't so much the mental part as the need for him to dimensionalize his game.

Daniel

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2017, 08:48:40 AM »
Haani got to the rim last year but did not finish too large a percentage of those.   Hopefully that improves this year. 

And the team will benefit from pump games - Rowsey is the only one who consistently uses this tool.  Everything ne Ned's to put this tool in their offensive arsenal. 

Sam will play a lot.  He started to show more two point ability and penetrating ability second half last year.   He will be a key to success in 17/18
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 11:15:47 AM by Daniel »

Herman Cain

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2017, 01:17:09 PM »
I was bullish on Sam going into last season . He had an outstanding freshman year and added a dimension of basketball IQ that cannot be captured statistically and was well liked by his teammates . In fact, JJJ said Sam was his favorite college basketball player.

Sam will continue to progress . He will be a direct beneficiary of our mother lode of Bigs as this will allow him to play the 2 and 3. Sam will be among those considered for Big East Player of the year when he is a senior.

MU82

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2017, 07:10:03 PM »
Way, way, WAAAY too lazy to look it up. Would one or two of you fine hoops-state aficionados please explain briefly what "usage" is and why it is important?

Thanks in advance!
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Sultan of Kookiness

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2017, 07:20:12 PM »
Sam has NBA potential if he keeps developing and working on becoming a quicker, more explosive athlete. His jump shot is already pure but if he can keep adding different dimensions to his game (ball handling, driving ability, post-game, 3 point range, defending quicker players )over the course of his MU career, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a lottery pick.

Go Marquette


The chances of Sam Hauser making the NBA, much less being a lottery pick, are quite remote.  Very skillful, but not terribly athletic.

I mean, do you *watch* the NBA?

MuMark

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2017, 07:34:37 PM »
Way, way, WAAAY too lazy to look it up. Would one or two of you fine hoops-state aficionados please explain briefly what "usage" is and why it is important?

Thanks in advance!

https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038

real chili 83

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2017, 08:49:05 PM »
I analyze with this agreement

MU82

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2017, 09:06:02 PM »
https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038

Thanks. Reading this, it leaves me thinking that usage rate matters to those who run fantasy NBA teams.

Not how or why that should translate to what Sam or any other college player does, and why it would make him more valuable or less valuable than any other college player.
"We were not made great as a country by indulging or even exalting our worst impulses, turning against ourselves, glorying in the things which divide us, and calling fake things true and true things fake."

Sultan of Kookiness

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Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2017, 09:33:34 PM »
Thanks. Reading this, it leaves me thinking that usage rate matters to those who run fantasy NBA teams.

Not how or why that should translate to what Sam or any other college player does, and why it would make him more valuable or less valuable than any other college player.


I don't think it indicates value as much as it indicates how a player is utilized.  For instance, Sam lead MU in minutes played last year.  But that doesn't indicate how he was used.  A low usage means that he wasn't a primary offensive weapon while on the floor.