What will Sam's usage be next season?

[MU82]

I don't think it indicates value as much as it indicates how a player is utilized.  For instance, Sam lead MU in minutes played last year.  But that doesn't indicate how he was used.  A low usage means that he wasn't a primary offensive weapon while on the floor.

All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!

[wadesworld]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qM5CYCGoU

I think Sam's athleticism is vastly underrated.  Is he a freak athlete?  No.  Is he athletic enough to make it to the next level?  To be determined, but I don't think he'd be the worst athlete in the NBA if he makes it there.

[Lennys Tap]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qM5CYCGoU

I think Sam's athleticism is vastly underrated.  Is he a freak athlete?  No.  Is he athletic enough to make it to the next level?  To be determined, but I don't think he'd be the worst athlete in the NBA if he makes it there.

But would he be the worst athlete 6'7" or smaller? If not, pretty damn close.

[murara1994]

69

[wadesworld]

But would he be the worst athlete 6'7" or smaller? If not, pretty damn close.

Probably not, but there would be worse than him.  I've never seen guys like Steph Curry or JJ Redick or heck even Jae Crowder dunk the ball like that.

[murara1994]

69

%

[MUDPT]

All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!

Usage rate also helps to understand eFG% and other stats too.  You could look at Ortg and see Heldt was our best offensive player last year! He had the highest Ortg!  But then you look at his usage rate- 9.1%.  He was very efficient but at a really small number of possessions. 

I'll also go on record for Hauser at an 18% next year.

[brewcity77]

All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!

It shows a number of things. Typically, as usage goes up, offensive efficiency goes down. Sam was tremendously effective last year, but the expectation is as he becomes more a focal point of the offense, his efficiency will decline.

Usage can also identify non factors on offense. Someone like Derrick was incredibly low usage. It tells the defense they can sag off because possessions rarely end in that player's hands.

It can also identify guys that are overrated. Take Russell Westbrook. Sure, his numbers were monstrous, but how many shots did he put up to get there? There was a postseason game where Westbrook said "40 points, man no one can stop me", and his defender quipped back "yeah but it took you 40 shots, so who cares?" I believe it was Patrick Beverley. Usage can show why PPG is a meaningless stat. With enough shots, any schmuck can score 20 a night, but the better the player, the fewer shots it takes to get there, thus the lower usage.

That doesn't mean usage is bad. You need someone who wants the ball in big situations and isn't afraid of the situation. But balancing a high efficiency with that rising usage will separate the ballhogs from the truly elite players.

[MU82]

I appreciate the discussion, folks. I like getting edumacated.

Still not sure if "usage" will be something that I think about very often when talkin' up hoops stats, but at least now I understand why some do.

[Nukem2]

I appreciate the discussion, folks. I like getting edumacated.

Still not sure if "usage" will be something that I think about very often when talkin' up hoops stats, but at least now I understand why some do.

Yeah, I'm getting edijicated as well.  Though the usage thing is rather obvious to the eye.  Most players simply can't be as productive having more playing time in a game as one gets tired or the ball is not going in or whatever.  Ball hogs are rather obvious (see Katin Reinhardt in early season this past year).  And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.

[brewcity77]

And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.

The problem is, those guys that just go at it are the ones that will try to shoot out of slumps. It doesn't take long for a guy to go from "feeling it" when he hits two in a row to taking three more heat check shots that miss. That's why the advanced stats matter. Because the players that make the most of the usage are the ones that are consistently good, not those that happen to hit two or three in a row and think they're Lebron James.

[GGGG]

Yeah, I'm getting edijicated as well.  Though the usage thing is rather obvious to the eye.  Most players simply can't be as productive having more playing time in a game as one gets tired or the ball is not going in or whatever.  Ball hogs are rather obvious (see Katin Reinhardt in early season this past year).  And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.

I trust the stats more than I do your "eye." 

[MU82]

I trust the stats more than I do your "eye."

Sometimes.

You don't sometimes watch a game and then see the stats later and say, "I don't care what the stats say, Player XYZ stunk (or was great)"?

[GGGG]

Sometimes.

You don't sometimes watch a game and then see the stats later and say, "I don't care what the stats say, Player XYZ stunk (or was great)"?

Rarely.

[Nukem2]

The problem is, those guys that just go at it are the ones that will try to shoot out of slumps. It doesn't take long for a guy to go from "feeling it" when he hits two in a row to taking three more heat check shots that miss. That's why the advanced stats matter. Because the players that make the most of the usage are the ones that are consistently good, not those that happen to hit two or three in a row and think they're Lebron James.

I guess you are describing taking good shots.  that's how coaches teach it, not via advanced usage stats.  Advanced stats are nice, but they just tell us what we already saw.

[GGGG]

Advanced stats are nice, but they just tell us what we already saw.

Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.

[brewcity77]

Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.

Exactly right. And anyone that thinks coaches aren't using advanced stats is a freaking moron.

[Nukem2]

Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.

Sure stats are facts, advanced or basic.  I watch games and players.  Coaches teach players what to do to win games so those stats look good.  If you and others want to delve into those stats, be my guest(s).  Interesting to review, but not very helpful during a basketball game as opposed to MLB where there are so many games that tendencies can be identified and used against the opponent.  In basketball, those tendencies need to be identified by watching opponents games.

[GGGG]

Sure stats are facts, advanced or basic.  I watch games and players.  Coaches teach players what to do to win games so those stats look good.  If you and others want to delve into those stats, be my guest(s).  Interesting to review, but not very helpful during a basketball game as opposed to MLB where there are so many games that tendencies can be identified and used against the opponent.  In basketball, those tendencies need to be identified by watching opponents games.

You don't think stats tell you something about an opponent in basketball??

And of course you have to supplement stats by watching opponents games.  No one has claimed otherwise.

[Nukem2]

Exactly right. And anyone that thinks coaches aren't using advanced stats is a freaking moron.

Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then. 

[Nukem2]

You don't think stats tell you something about an opponent in basketball??

And of course you have to supplement stats by watching opponents games.  No one has claimed otherwise.

Hmmm....think you have that backward?    PS, we are talking advanced stats here not basic traditional stats.

[GGGG]

Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then. 

No.  FT% rarely matters.  Statistically proven.

You can continue to act as Scoop's resident luddite though.  You're like the new Murff.  Congrats.

[Marcus92]

In this case, the stats tell us — or reinforce — a few things about Sam's freshman season:

1) Sam was one of the team's last offensive options (just 13.6% usage).
2) His offense was largely limited to 3-point shooting (67.8% of attempts from behind the arc).
3) He rarely got to the line (just 29 FTA in 32 games, last on the team even behind Matt Heldt).
4) He made the absolute most of those limited offensive opportunities (45.3% 3PT%, 127.8 offensive rating).

So what will change for 2017-18?

1) Four of the players that used more possessions than Sam (JaJuan, Luke, Katin and Duane) have graduated or transferred.
2) One or likely several players will have to make up the difference.
3) Sam has shown that he's capable inside the arc (51.5% from 2-point range).
4) His low turnover rate (10.8%) suggests he can be trusted with the ball and given more responsibility within the offense.
5) Because of Sam's shooting ability, opponents have to respect him everywhere he goes on the court, with or without the ball. If they're close-guarding him on the perimeter, that could mean more opportunities to drive, pick and roll, etc.

If Sam ups his usage to 18-19%, that suggests an offensive contribution at the Haanif Cheatham/Duane Wilson level — only much more efficient (with an ORtg still hopefully above 120). Without having seen Froling, Cain, John, Elliott or Eke, that's my baseline expectation for Sam going into the season.

I hope he can contribute even more than that. Like in the range of 20-23% usage, with an ORtg somewhere around 115-120 — a similar offensive contribution to Katin or Luke a year ago. In other words, I hope Sam can become one of our top 3-5 offensive contributors, after Markus and Andrew.

Logic tells me that's overly optimistic. But Sam exceeded every expectation I had for his freshman season. Plus, he's much more of a proven commodity than Cain, Elliott and company. Sam knows the offense. He's played a year alongside Markus, Andrew, Haanif and Matt. And he understands that sometimes, being a team player means stepping up and demanding the ball.

If not Sam, who else?

[brewcity77]

Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then.

Dumb take, but congrats, you've earned this!

[Jay Bee]

Nukem, are you an MU alum?