Archie Miller to IU

[Tugg Speedman]

Do you really see tOSU, Purdue, and Iowa in the same class? I would argue tOSU has been the second best program in the BIG over my lifetime (25 years). Indiana is a basketball rich state, but I think it's reasonable to suggest that the Indiana program begins and ends with Bob Knight.

I don't think there's anything wrong with being tOSU if you're Indiana. In fact, had Crean been as successful as Matta has been at tOSU, he'd likely still be employed. The sooner the Indiana faithful see it this way (and they seem to with the hiring of Archie), the better.

Year-End KenPom Rankings
Year   OSU   IU   UW   MSU
2011   1   82   6   45
2012   2   9   8   3
2013   7   3   12   10
2014   19   63   5   9
2015   19   48   2   15
2016   72   11   38   5
2017   76   47   21   40
Avg.        28   38   13   18
5Yr Avg   39   34   16   16


For this metric,  Bucky has been the elite Big 10 team the last seven years (and I explained why that is over in another thread).  Followed by MSU. 

IU and tOSU are very similar.  Further, tOSU has been sliding for 6 seasons.  Yet Crean was fired and Matta is highly thought of.

It's all about expectations.  IU thinks their results are not good enough whereas similar results by tOSU have people like you thinking they are elite.  The reality is tOSU is not even elite in the Big 10, let along Division 1.  Only Bucky and MSU have been elite.

Crean delivered Matta type results and in Bloomington that was a sin so he was fired.  Now IU thinks things are going to better with Dayton's coach.

Good luck with that.

[Tugg Speedman]

OK, I agree with these hypotheticals. Yes, if he is no better than Crean, he won't be considered a success by HoosierLand.

I actually agreed with many of the what-ifs in your earlier post ... until you got to the certainty part:

Bottom line, IU is giving up, they are content being Iowa or Ohio State.  They are formerly elite.

No hypothetical question there. No facts, either. Just one guy's opinion.

And that's OK if it's presented as such. It wasn't. It was presented as, "I'm effen Smuggles, and I say Archie Miller will be such a failure that it's obvious IU is giving up."

That was clearly an opinion and presented as such.  It was even followed up with a question asking if you agreed.

The problem is you're so insanely jealous of me and gleefully throw in the Apple call in very response because it makes your inadequate existence feel better.

If it makes you feel better, I have worse calls than that Apple call every month, something every week.  I bought Bank of America two weeks ago, look it up.  Buy I also aggressively shorted Brent Crude Oil a month ago, look it up.  Can't be afraid of an opinion being wrong.  Gotta keep smuggling along.

[MU82]

That was clearly an opinion and presented as such.  It was even followed up with a question asking if you agreed.

The problem is you're so insanely jealous of me and gleefully throw in the Apple call in very response because it makes your inadequate existence feel better.

If it makes you feel better, I have worse calls than that Apple call every month, something every week.  I bought Bank of America two weeks ago, look it up.  Buy I also aggressively shorted Brent Crude Oil a month ago, look it up.  Can't be afraid of an opinion being wrong.  Gotta keep smuggling along.

Everybody who calls you out for your BS is jealous of you.

Wait ... not just jealous but "insanely jealous." Got it.

Sadly, this will be our last exchange. As soon as I hit the "Post" button, I will be killing myself. I have such an inadequate existence, I can't possibly go on. I just have to decide what to wear.

[CincyEagle]

Year-End KenPom Rankings
Year   OSU   IU   UW   MSU
2011   1   82   6   45
2012   2   9   8   3
2013   7   3   12   10
2014   19   63   5   9
2015   19   48   2   15
2016   72   11   38   5
2017   76   47   21   40
Avg.        28   38   13   18
5Yr Avg   39   34   16   16


For this metric,  Bucky has been the elite Big 10 team the last seven years (and I explained why that is over in another thread).  Followed by MSU. 

Okay, let's back up for a second and emphasize that you are using one metric to define what is "elite" and what is not. Using a number of other metrics (conference championships, conference tournament championships, NCAA appearances, Sweet 16s, Elite 8s, Final 4s, and national runners-up) you'll see tOSU is very similar to MSU and Wisconsin in terms of success, outpacing each in multiple categories. You'll also notice that Indiana has not sustained the same type of success.

(see below attachment, results dating back to 2007)

IU and tOSU are very similar.  Further, tOSU has been sliding for 6 seasons.  Yet Crean was fired and Matta is highly thought of.

These results show why Matta is highly thought of, however, I also think you underestimate how fed up tOSU fans are with the slip in performance.

It's all about expectations.  IU thinks their results are not good enough whereas similar results by tOSU have people like you thinking they are elite.  The reality is tOSU is not even elite in the Big 10, let along Division 1.  Only Bucky and MSU have been elite.

Crean delivered Matta type results and in Bloomington that was a sin so he was fired.  Now IU thinks things are going to better with Dayton's coach.

Good luck with that.

Again, no Crean did not produce Matta-type results. If he did, he would likely still be employed. I also never claimed that tOSU is elite, but they are closer to being elite than you give them credit for (especially if Wisconsin is thought of as elite).

[Tugg Speedman]

If you allow Crean a couple of years for rebuilding, Crean's record over the last 5 to 7 years was the same as Matta's record.

The problem with your metrics is you look at NCAA tourney and triple count deep runs.  Look at overall season success, like KenPom or your conference championship wins and you will find that tOSU was elite several years ago and is no more.  tOSU has been on a long slide and now has two straight years without a NCAA appearance and three straight years in the bottom half of the Big Ten.
 
Or consider this, Matta has been tOSU's head coach since 2004.  His previous stops were Butler and Xavier.  Right now (again last 5 to 7 years) both Butler and Xavier are more successful programs.

------- 

This is the myth that Crean exploded.  As I noted in the MU/IU thread, Crean did no better at IU than MU, even though most thought IU was a better program.  It was a better program, but it is not anymore.  In my opinion, hiring Archie Miller only underscores  the "me too" status that IU now has in the Big Ten.

Ditto what Matta has done at tOSU since Butler's first run to the final game in 2010 ... he has shown that both Butler and Xavier are now better than tOSU.

The only reason Mack or Holtman would leave for tOSU is a naked money grab.  It's a lateral move at best.

[GooooMarquette]

Okay, let's back up for a second and emphasize that you are using one metric to define what is "elite" and what is not. Using a number of other metrics (conference championships, conference tournament championships, NCAA appearances, Sweet 16s, Elite 8s, Final 4s, and national runners-up) you'll see tOSU is very similar to MSU and Wisconsin in terms of success, outpacing each in multiple categories. You'll also notice that Indiana has not sustained the same type of success.

Those numbers, combined with the KP ratings, tell me the following:

When tOSU is good, they're really good to excellent. 
When they aren't, they are mediocre to bad.

When UW or MSU are good, they're really good to excellent. 
When they aren't, they are still pretty good.

That's why I'd put both UW and MSU ahead of tOSU - consistency.  Lately, IU has looked more like tOSU, and that's why Crean was fired.  If Miller does the same, he will likely be fired too.

[JWags85]

tOSU is on a "long slide"?  They won an NCAA game 2 years ago.  Last year they weren't great but still won 21 games.  Until last year, Matta had missed the NCAA once in his 10 years at OSU, the year after he lost Conley and Oden to the NBA, and he won the NIT that year.  In his time at OSU, he has more conference championships and more B10 tourney championships than both UW and MSU.  He missed badly on the senior class this year and the last two years show it.  But to act like OSU has been a declining mess with a lower floor than UW or MSU is silly.  Izzo made 3 NCAAs in that time going .500 in the B10. And UW was one of the last teams in 2 years with under 20 wins, not much separating that from an NIT berth.

[tower912]

From a good friend and Dayton alum with a long history as sports directors at midwest television stations.... Anthony Grant to Dayton.

Heisie, upon reflection, you and I are more in agreement on this issue than usual.  We view it from different angles and I disagree with your initial conclusion, however.   Miller is a solid hire and is probably the absolute best IU could have gotten.   His hiring is not a sign that IU has given up.   It is a sign that there simply aren't any available home run/no brainer hires.    But that speaks more to an irrational reading of available coaches by the IU faithful and fanbases in general.   
    As fans, we always assume the next coach is the solution.   There simply are not that many program changing coaches out there.    For example, if K were to unexpectedly step down today and Wojo left for Duke tomorrow, what would MU's options be?   Our fans would rant and rave and speculate and demand, but in the end, how many coaches out there who can take MU to where MU fans want to be and who would come to MU?     Stan?  Pleasing MUFiNY but ultimately just another unproven assistant?   Wardle?   Experienced mid-major coach with MU ties?     Groce?    Crean?  Marshall?     The pool of great coaches simply isn't that deep.   
   So, I guess my perspective on coaching changes boils down to two thoughts.    1.  Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.    2.   No matter how hot the girl, somewhere there is a guy who just doesn't want to listen to her anymore. 

[brewcity77]

Archie is a fine hire, but he's a step down from Crean. In terms of resume, Crean at least brought a Final Four, something Archie hasn't done. He recruited better here than Archie did at Dayton. He had proven he could win in a high major conference. I'm not saying Archie couldn't be great, but at the time of hiring, he's at best a poor man's Tom Crean.

This is a what have you done for me lately business. Crean won league titles, went to Sweet 16s, and one down year because his first round pick got injured and he's out. Maybe he wasn't popular with some people, but that program was dead when he arrived.

Indiana owes a huge debt to Tom Crean. I don't know that they'll ever recapture what they were under Knight, but if they change coaches after every down year, they certainly won't. I never went out of my way to cheer for IU with Crean, but I definitely won't cheer them now.

[CreanLover]

Archie Miller is a great hire by IU. He will kill it in Bloomington. He's much more "Indiana" than Crean was. Crean is a phony and his entire personality is gleamed from leadership books. Miller is the kind of intense basketball lifer that Hoosier fans will love. He'll have the local kids back on campus in no time.

[warriorchick]

Archie Miller is a great hire by IU. He will kill it in Bloomington. He's much more "Indiana" than Crean was. Crean is a phony and his entire personality is gleamed from leadership books. Miller is the kind of intense basketball lifer that Hoosier fans will love. He'll have the local kids back on campus in no time.

I assume, then, that your username is ironic.

[Tugg Speedman]

From a good friend and Dayton alum with a long history as sports directors at midwest television stations.... Anthony Grant to Dayton.

Heisie, upon reflection, you and I are more in agreement on this issue than usual.  We view it from different angles and I disagree with your initial conclusion, however.   Miller is a solid hire and is probably the absolute best IU could have gotten.   His hiring is not a sign that IU has given up.   It is a sign that there simply aren't any available home run/no brainer hires.    But that speaks more to an irrational reading of available coaches by the IU faithful and fanbases in general.   
    As fans, we always assume the next coach is the solution.   There simply are not that many program changing coaches out there.    For example, if K were to unexpectedly step down today and Wojo left for Duke tomorrow, what would MU's options be?   Our fans would rant and rave and speculate and demand, but in the end, how many coaches out there who can take MU to where MU fans want to be and who would come to MU?     Stan?  Pleasing MUFiNY but ultimately just another unproven assistant?   Wardle?   Experienced mid-major coach with MU ties?     Groce?    Crean?  Marshall?     The pool of great coaches simply isn't that deep.   
   So, I guess my perspective on coaching changes boils down to two thoughts.    1.  Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.    2.   No matter how hot the girl, somewhere there is a guy who just doesn't want to listen to her anymore.

Then did IU make a mistake?  TDid they did think because their spot opened up that "big name" coaches would beat a path to their door?  And the fact that they did not speaks volumes as to the state of IU basketball.

Archie could turn out to be a great hire.  But, going into it, it is hard to see how he is a clear improvement over Crean.  He is not, they just have to hope they get lucky.

[tower912]

Only time will tell.  No predictions.  I believe that Miller is a better defensive coach and will run a less turnover prone offense.  If he is able to leverage the IU name to recruit 4-5 stars to play his system, he could do very well.  Or he could tank.  Where is that coin?

[CreanLover]

Archie could turn out to be a great hire.  But, going into it, it is hard to see how he is a clear improvement over Crean.  He is not, they just have to hope they get lucky.

He is a clear improvement over Crean because he's not Crean.

Indiana will be back in the top 10 within 3 years.

Kelvin Sampson, who is unfairly vilified IMO, had them ranked like #3 or #4. Indiana recruits itself. Only a tool like Crean could alienate a fan base and all the HS coaches in the state.

Miller is a perfect fit.

[wadesworld]

 

He is a clear improvement over Crean because he's not Crean.

Indiana will be back in the top 10 within 3 years.

Kelvin Sampson, who is unfairly vilified IMO, had them ranked like #3 or #4. Indiana recruits itself. Only a tool like Crean could alienate a fan base and all the HS coaches in the state.

Miller is a perfect fit.

Thanks for stopping by Arch.

[buckchuckler]

He is a clear improvement over Crean because he's not Crean.

Indiana will be back in the top 10 within 3 years.

Kelvin Sampson, who is unfairly vilified IMO, had them ranked like #3 or #4. Indiana recruits itself. Only a tool like Crean could alienate a fan base and all the HS coaches in the state.

Miller is a perfect fit.

Hmm, yeah, pretty sure Crean had them ranked #1.

[Tugg Speedman]

He is a clear improvement over Crean because he's not Crean.

Indiana will be back in the top 10 within 3 years.

Kelvin Sampson, who is unfairly vilified IMO, had them ranked like #3 or #4. Indiana recruits itself. Only a tool like Crean could alienate a fan base and all the HS coaches in the state.

Miller is a perfect fit.

Indiana was in the top 10 three months ago (December).  In fact they went all the way to #3 just after Thanksgiving.  They were also top 10 last year.

So you're arguing that Archie will make them worse over the next three years.

And if Archie gets them in the top 10 in three years, he too is three months away from getting fired.

[Golden Avalanche]

He is a clear improvement over Crean because he's not Crean.

Indiana will be back in the top 10 within 3 years.

Kelvin Sampson, who is unfairly vilified IMO, had them ranked like #3 or #4. Indiana recruits itself. Only a tool like Crean could alienate a fan base and all the HS coaches in the state.

Miller is a perfect fit.

Lot of stupid in this quote but I would love for you to flesh out the evidence on the bolded.

[wadesworld]

Lot of stupid in this quote but I would love for you to flesh out the evidence on the bolded.

Ehh.  I'm pretty confident saying there are coaches (I'm sure Sampson included) who do much worse things than texting or calling a guy more often than he should, yet Samspon is treated as if he murdered someone while everything else is all good.

BeeJay can answer this one as I really don't know, but didn't the NCAA eliminate the rule on the number of times you can text/call a recruit?

[Herman Cain]

Let me argue this is a terrible hire tantamount to IU admitting they are a formerly elite team and now in the class of tOSU, Purdue and Iowa ... an upper half Big Ten 10 team but nothing special.

First, in this post is Crean's 9 year record at IU, compared to MU.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=53996.0

They are remarkably similar, showing rankings, including top 10 and even no. 1.  They even weeks in the top 5 this year and were the 11th best team last year per KenPom.  Yet none of this was good enough.

Second, their was stories they would pay Alford's nearly $8 million buyout and pay nearly $6 million a year for a new coach.

So given all this they took Archie Miller.  I have not heard terms but i'm guessing he is not breaking the bank.

If Miller finishes 18th next year and get the second round of the tournament, is that a successful year?  That's what Crean was more or less giving them (Crean was S16 last year) and he was shown the door.

Anyone want to make case Archie is going to 4 FF in the next 7 years.  I cannot see it.

Bottom line, IU is giving up, they are content being Iowa or Ohio State.  They are formerly elite.

What's wrong with this argument?

IU has unrealistic expectations about their place in the basketball pecking order.  They are simply not a consistent top 10 type program any more.  Crean was doing a very good job for them and had the program positioned for continued top 25 type success with an occasional tournament run. This years team was on track to do well prior to some key injuries and in fact had some very good wins.  Crean's problem , as one poster pointed out, is that he is "smarmy". Basically he wore out his welcome and gave the money guys the window to can him and get someone they perceived would restore their glory.

Archie Miller is a very successful rising young coach. Indiana is not giving up their aspirations of being an elite level program at all by hiring him. That said , he will have to work hard to approach and exceed Crean's level of success at Indiana. Crean was a good recruiter and had real talent . I think it was smart  for Indiana to get a guy from nearby as well. Miller can get to work right away and not have to worry too much about moving the family etc. Getting IU into the upper third of the Big Ten is going to be a big challenge. My guess is Miller will ultimately be like Buzz was for us, and extend the Crean profile of the IU program for a considerable period of time. At the end of the day Indiana won't be happy about that but reality is that is what they are, which most non blue bloods would take in a heart beat.

[Tugg Speedman]

IU has unrealistic expectations about their place in the basketball pecking order.  They are simply not a consistent top 10 type program any more.  Crean was doing a very good job for them and had the program positioned for continued top 25 type success with an occasional tournament run. This years team was on track to do well prior to some key injuries and in fact had some very good wins.  Crean's problem , as one poster pointed out, is that he is "smarmy". Basically he wore out his welcome and gave the money guys the window to can him and get someone they perceived would restore their glory.

Archie Miller is a very successful rising young coach. Indiana is not giving up their aspirations of being an elite level program at all by hiring him. That said , he will have to work hard to approach and exceed Crean's level of success at Indiana. Crean was a good recruiter and had real talent . I think it was smart  for Indiana to get a guy from nearby as well. Miller can get to work right away and not have to worry too much about moving the family etc. Getting IU into the upper third of the Big Ten is going to be a big challenge. My guess is Miller will ultimately be like Buzz was for us, and extend the Crean profile of the IU program for a considerable period of time. At the end of the day Indiana won't be happy about that but reality is that is what they are, which most non blue bloods would take in a heart beat.

Shouldn't we find out really fast? 

If Crean's good incoming recruits bail, he doesn't land decent recruits this summer (2018 class) and gets significant transfers, he starts with two "dead classes" (incoming Freshman this year and next year).  This means IU stays where it was this year (9th or 10th in the Big 10) for the next few years and we can check back in 2020 to see if they are relevant again.

If he is going to be successful, he needs to land an Ellenson type, like Wojo did, just a few months after he was hired.

We'll know by the November signing.

[Tugg Speedman]

Ehh.  I'm pretty confident saying there are coaches (I'm sure Sampson included) who do much worse things than texting or calling a guy more often than he should, yet Samspon is treated as if he murdered someone while everything else is all good.

BeeJay can answer this one as I really don't know, but didn't the NCAA eliminate the rule on the number of times you can text/call a recruit?

Wasn't Sampson's sin that he was told to stop texting and he did not?

[GooooMarquette]

Wasn't Sampson's sin that he was told to stop texting and he did not?

And lying both to the IU Compliance Office and NCAA when specifically questioned about the violations.

And it wasn't just a few calls - there were over 500 documented impermissible calls.

[MU1992]

Just curious if IU reached out to many candidates before Miller and they turned the job down.  Do you think they reached out to the Butler and Xavier coaches?

[brewcity77]

I guess my main question with Miller is that by any measurement, at the time of hire, he's a step down from Crean. Both had one NCAA run, Crean went to the Final Four, Miller went to the Elite Eight. Both had success in their league, Crean did it in the Big East, Miller did it in the A10. Both had solid recruits, but Wade/Diener/Novak/Matthews were all more successful long-term than any of Miller's Dayton recruits.

Crean came in as a better recruiter, with a better track record, from a better league. Miller is basically like hiring a mini-Crean all over again. I don't think there's any way one could argue this as anything but an obvious step back for Indiana. Maybe Miller ends up having success, maybe he knocks it out of the park there, but strictly based on what the coach brings to the table at the time of hire, Crean is hands-down the better candidate and they aren't even in the same zip code. Hell, I'm not even sure they're in the same country.