Fire Coach K

[1SE]

How many coaches have an NCAA Tournament record that is better than their normal seeding suggests it should be?

Would be interesting metric to compare across coaches over time and (I think) the global average is performing on expectation (but maybe not quite - a trickier problem than it seems on the surface and I don't want to think through it right now) but just for a local reference with the Buzzard... (3 on expectation, 2 over achieved, 3 underachieved) - so 5/8 on expectation or better compared to 6/17 for K since 2000. Listen, K will go down as one of the greatest to ever coach the game but all I'm saying is that a Duke fan could make a reasonable and evidence-based case for disappointment.

2013   3  Elite Eight   OVER
2012   3  Sweet 16   ON
2011   11  Sweet 16   OVER
2010   6  First Round   UNDER
2009   6  Second Round   ON
2008   6  Second Round  ON
2007   8  First Round   UNDER
2006   7  First Round   UNDER

[warriorfred]

Why the idiotic liberal political commentary?

Agree.  Take it to the Superbar.

[wadesworld]

Would be interesting metric to compare across coaches over time and (I think) the global average is performing on expectation (but maybe not quite - a trickier problem than it seems on the surface and I don't want to think through it right now) but just for a local reference with the Buzzard... (3 on expectation, 2 over achieved, 3 underachieved) - so 5/8 on expectation or better compared to 6/17 for K since 2000. Listen, K will go down as one of the greatest to ever coach the game but all I'm saying is that a Duke fan could make a reasonable and evidence-based case for disappointment.

2013   3  Elite Eight   OVER
2012   3  Sweet 16   ON
2011   11  Sweet 16   OVER
2010   6  First Round   UNDER
2009   6  Second Round   ON
2008   6  Second Round  ON
2007   8  First Round   UNDER
2006   7  First Round   UNDER

It's a lot easier to perform at or above expectation when your expectation is pretty mediocre. It's a lot harder to do it when your "expectation" is Elite 8 or better.

[MU82]

It's a lot easier to perform at or above expectation when your expectation is pretty mediocre. It's a lot harder to do it when your "expectation" is Elite 8 or better.

Yep.

I invest in stocks. Often, when a company underperforms for many years and then finally has a decent - but certainly not great - earnings report, its price will zoom up by several percent in one session. Conversely, when a company that has been kickin' arse for a long time has a very good - but not arse-kickin' - earnings report, its price will plummet.

It's all about expectations.

[naginiF]

Yep.

I invest in stocks. Often, when a company underperforms for many years and then finally has a decent - but certainly not great - earnings report, its price will zoom up by several percent in one session. Conversely, when a company that has been kickin' arse for a long time has a very good - but not arse-kickin' - earnings report, its price will plummet.

It's all about expectations.

+141.42

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yep.

I invest in stocks. Often, when a company underperforms for many years and then finally has a decent - but certainly not great - earnings report, its price will zoom up by several percent in one session. Conversely, when a company that has been kickin' arse for a long time has a very good - but not arse-kickin' - earnings report, its price will plummet.

It's all about expectations.

It's all about when to buy and sell.

[MU82]

+141.42

Made me laugh out loud.

Even Smuggles might chuckle if he sees it.

[1SE]

Don't know how to quote from old thread into new thread, but you can't deny Coach K underperforms in the tourney, or at the very least they have been systematically over-seeded. I'd take the *Duke* program in a heartbeat, but K doesn't have a great NCAA track record of success.

Coach K now underperformed relative to seed 13 times since 2000 (on seed 4 times,  over 3 times).

This argument has always been half teal/tounge-in-cheek, and the probability of underperforming relative to seed is much higher than overperforming when you've been a 1 seed 10/20 times and a 2 seed 6 times (that's crazy - a 1 or 2 seed in 80% of the tourneys over the past two decades - amazing) but, interestingly, when K has been seeded 2 or worse in the past 20 years Duke has NEVER overperformed to seed.

Duke is hands-down the best program of the past two decades. But one could argue others have been better tourney coaches than K. K recruits phenomenal talent, and that talent generally performs to/below expectations. Everything except the "pehnomenal" in that sentence sounds familiar...

2019   1 Elite Eight UNDER
2018   2 Elite Eight ON
2017   2 Second Round UNDER
2016   4 Sweet 16 ON
2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

[muguru]

Coach K now underperformed relative to seed 13 times since 2000 (on seed 4 times,  over 3 times).

This argument has always been half teal/tounge-in-cheek, and the probability of underperforming relative to seed is much higher than overperforming when you've been a 1 seed 10/20 times and a 2 seed 6 times (that's crazy - a 1 or 2 seed in 80% of the tourneys over the past two decades - amazing) but, interestingly, when K has been seeded 2 or worse in the past 20 years Duke has NEVER overperformed to seed.

Duke is hands-down the best program of the past two decades. But one could argue others have been better tourney coaches than K. K recruits phenomenal talent, and that talent generally performs to/below expectations. Everything except the "pehnomenal" in that sentence sounds familiar...

2019   1 Elite Eight UNDER
2018   2 Elite Eight ON
2017   2 Second Round UNDER
2016   4 Sweet 16 ON
2015   1   -   National Championship    OVER
2014   3   26-9   First Round   UNDER
2013   2   30-6   Elite Eight   ON
2012   2   27-7   First Round   UNDER
2011   1   32-5   Sweet 16   UNDER
2010   1   35-5   National Championship   OVER
2009   2   30-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2008   2   28-6   Second Round   UNDER
2007   6   22-11   First Round   UNDER
2006   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2005   1   27-6   Sweet 16   UNDER
2004   1   31-6   Final Four   ON
2003   3   26-7   Sweet 16   UNDER
2002   1   31-4   Sweet 16   UNDER
2001   1   35-4   National Championship   OVER
2000   1   29-5   Sweet 16   UNDER

In reading their board yesterday after the game, many are seriously ready for a change. Think his one and done model fails too often in the tourney and that the game has passed him by.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

In reading their board yesterday after the game, many are seriously ready for a change. Think his one and done model fails too often in the tourney and that the game has passed him by.

Their best offense was "give it to Zion" all year.  And they went away from it when it mattered most. 

[LoudMouth]

In reading their board yesterday after the game, many are seriously ready for a change. Think his one and done model fails too often in the tourney and that the game has passed him by.

lol yes they are as knowledgeable as you! When Duke gives him the boot maybe Wojo will hire him on as an assistant

[rocky_warrior]

In reading their board yesterday after the game, many are seriously ready for a change. Think his one and done model fails too often in the tourney and that the game has passed him by.

Was thinking about this during and after the game.  You have a team with  likely 4 2019 NBA picks, 2 of them likely lottery, and you can't dominate?  That seems disappointing to me.

[MU82]

Duke couldn't get the ball back at the end because they only had committed 4 fouls in the second half. So they faced the unenviable task of having to commit 3 fouls in less than 7 seconds just to send MSU to the line for a 1-and-1.

When I was a middle school head coach, I used to get really nervous if we only had a few fouls in a close game and less than 2 minutes were left. I'd tell my players to get really aggressive trying to steal the ball. If they got the steal, great. If not, we'd commit a foul so we'd get closer to putting the other team in the bonus. The same thing happened a couple times this season (when I was a high school assistant). I'd tell our head coach that we shouldn't be shy about committing a couple of fouls because we might need our opponent to be in the 1-and-1 in the final seconds; he agreed.

Maybe K or his assistants said just that to his guys with a few minutes left and they didn't execute, or maybe the refs let them get away with a few slaps or whatever.

I guess it's just another sign of me being a better coach than K - ha!

[Norm]

Maybe K or his assistants said just that to his guys with a few minutes left and they didn't execute, or maybe the refs let them get away with a few slaps or whatever.

Yeah, they could have easily called about 4 fouls on Zion alone in the 2nd half that they let go.

[Nukem2]

Was thinking about this during and after the game.  You have a team with  likely 4 2019 NBA picks, 2 of them likely lottery, and you can't dominate?  That seems disappointing to me.

They are still 18 or 19 year old freshmen who make mistakes even if they have elite athleticism, etc.

[MU82]

Yeah, they could have easily called about 4 fouls on Zion alone in the 2nd half that they let go.

I trust that's true. We actually had our team end-of-season dinner last night and I was only able to watch bits and pieces of the game.

[CTWarrior]

Duke couldn't get the ball back at the end because they only had committed 4 fouls in the second half. So they faced the unenviable task of having to commit 3 fouls in less than 7 seconds just to send MSU to the line for a 1-and-1.

When I was a middle school head coach, I used to get really nervous if we only had a few fouls in a close game and less than 2 minutes were left. I'd tell my players to get really aggressive trying to steal the ball. If they got the steal, great. If not, we'd commit a foul so we'd get closer to putting the other team in the bonus. The same thing happened a couple times this season (when I was a high school assistant). I'd tell our head coach that we shouldn't be shy about committing a couple of fouls because we might need our opponent to be in the 1-and-1 in the final seconds; he agreed.

Maybe K or his assistants said just that to his guys with a few minutes left and they didn't execute, or maybe the refs let them get away with a few slaps or whatever.

I guess it's just another sign of me being a better coach than K - ha!

I started wondering about Coach K when they lost to Lehigh several years back in the first round.  It was a close game (Duke up 2 at the half) and Lehigh had no real size.  I figured Duke would just pound it inside and bludgeon Lehigh in the second half, but instead they just kept chucking threes.  The way I remember it the Plumlees scored at will on those rare occasions they got the ball and Doc Rivers' kid and Steph Curry's brother missed about 100 3s each.  Of course he's a great coach, but even great coaches can have bad days.

[brewcity77]

Yeah, they could have easily called about 4 fouls on Zion alone in the 2nd half that they let go.

It felt rather ironic that at the end, Duke couldn't just put MSU on the line because the refs hadn't called enough fouls on them throughout the half. Not only did MSU get the sideline out-of-bounds because the refs didn't blow whistles on Duke, but had they fouled Winston, it just would've been another out of bounds because Duke was still only on 4 fouls. MSU had multiple opportunities coming to bleed clock before it went to the 1-and-1.

[rocky_warrior]

Duke couldn't get the ball back at the end because they only had committed been called for 4 fouls in the second half.

Fixed, for accuracy

[MU82]

Fixed, for accuracy

Thanks. That's why you get the big bux, rocky!

It felt rather ironic that at the end, Duke couldn't just put MSU on the line because the refs hadn't called enough fouls on them throughout the half. Not only did MSU get the sideline out-of-bounds because the refs didn't blow whistles on Duke, but had they fouled Winston, it just would've been another out of bounds because Duke was still only on 4 fouls. MSU had multiple opportunities coming to bleed clock before it went to the 1-and-1.

Yep.

[1SE]

Was thinking about this during and after the game.  You have a team with  likely 4 2019 NBA picks, 2 of them likely lottery, and you can't dominate?  That seems disappointing to me.

Right - I mean building a program where you can recruit and field a full NBA roster every year is an amazing accomplishment, but really shouldn’t an NBA team go 40-0 in the NCAA? It would almost be like Marquette being in the WIAA.

[Loose Cannon]

Right - I mean building a program where you can recruit and field a full NBA roster every year is an amazing accomplishment, but really shouldn’t an NBA team go 40-0 in the NCAA? It would almost be like Marquette being in the WIAA.

Well it sounds nice, but do you ready believe it.  They may have the NBA talent but they are a year out of a high school and College BB is a Little more than just talent.