Remaining games

[jsglow]

Here's the breakdown of what's left:

Xavier 8-6
@SHall, Butler, MU, @DePaul
Prediction: 2-2

Marquette 7-7
SJU, @Prov, @Xavier, Creighton
Prediction: ??

Seton Hall 6-8
Xavier, @DePaul, GTown, @Butler
Prediction: 2-2

Providence 6-8
@Creighton, MU, DePaul, @SJU
Prediction: 1-3

St. John's 6-8
@MU, GTown, @Creighton, Providence
Prediction: 2-2

We've got to find a way to go 3-1.  That'll go a long way to keep that competition behind us.  It starts Tuesday.  MUST win if we want a chance to dance.

[SaveOD238]

Our next two are basically elimination games.  If we beat St. John's, then their dim hopes are gone.  If we lose, we're in trouble.  The same is true vs. Providence.  The Friars need to beat us to stay in the conversation for a bid, but if we lose to them twice they end up higher on the totem pole than we do.

Get through the next two unscathed (and 9-7) and the last two are probably playing for seeding in NYC and to avoid Dayton.

[Big Papi]

2-2 with 1 BET win gets us in the tourney.  I don't think it matters who we beat out of our last 4 games but the next 2 are probably our easiest games with X or Creighton being our opening opponent in the BET if we win 2 games.

[Jay Bee]

2-2 with 1 BET win gets us in the tourney.  I don't think it matters who we beat out of our last 4 games but the next 2 are probably our easiest games with X or Creighton being our opening opponent in the BET if we win 2 games.

It does matter a bit from an RPI perspective. The adjusted win-loss (AWP) component is impacted. We're 12.4-9.2 currently.. if going 2-2 is a given, the best outcome based on where our current AWP is would be to win at home, lose on the road. If we split.. win one, lose one both home and on the road, our RPI will be reduced by approximately .0010 (compared to winning at home both games, losing on the road both games). If we lose both at home, but win both on the road, our RPI will be reduced by approximately .0020.

Not big numbers... but, if we had another .0020 as of today, we'd be at #69 RPI instead of #73. Optics... a little better.

But.. from a qualitative look.. some people may value road wins more... all depends..

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Our next two are basically elimination games.  If we beat St. John's, then their dim hopes are gone.  If we lose, we're in trouble.  The same is true vs. Providence.  The Friars need to beat us to stay in the conversation for a bid, but if we lose to them twice they end up higher on the totem pole than we do.

Not really (regarding next 2 being elimination games). Winning at PC would be huge, but it's far from an elimination game for us. If we win the next two, I think we're in. Any combo that gets us to 9-9 we're at worst in Dayton. Confident of that. We do need to win on Tuesday tho. Huge game.

[Jay Bee]

Not really (regarding next 2 being elimination games). Winning at PC would be huge, but it's far from an elimination game for us. If we win the next two, I think we're in. Any combo that gets us to 9-9 we're at worst in Dayton. Confident of that. We do need to win on Tuesday tho. Huge game.

The problem here is that 9-9 assumes we're done until Selection Sunday at that point. If we finish 9-9, I will be TERRIFIED that a loss in our first BET game could spell doom. 

[jsglow]

Our next two are basically elimination games.  If we beat St. John's, then their dim hopes are gone.  If we lose, we're in trouble.  The same is true vs. Providence.  The Friars need to beat us to stay in the conversation for a bid, but if we lose to them twice they end up higher on the totem pole than we do.

Get through the next two unscathed (and 9-7) and the last two are probably playing for seeding in NYC and to avoid Dayton.

I'm not sure I agree with that.  I think we all agree that St. John's is about as close to 'must' as one can get.  But if they split those two road games they help rather than hurt themselves.

[rocket surgeon]

relax, let's just "run the table" then, eyyn'a?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The problem here is that 9-9 assumes we're done until Selection Sunday at that point. If we finish 9-9, I will be TERRIFIED that a loss in our first BET game could spell doom.

Yah, id be nervous for sure, but I did think we'd make Dayton in that scenario.

[real chili 83]

Now that I made my stop in Delafield, I'll be invoking the sacred lucky powers of Sonoran Salsa for each of the remaining four games. We're gonna run the table.

[PGsHeroes32]

The problem here is that 9-9 assumes we're done until Selection Sunday at that point. If we finish 9-9, I will be TERRIFIED that a loss in our first BET game could spell doom.

Same.

I'm not confident til we hit 10 wins

[Jay Bee]

Yah, id be nervous for sure, but I did think we'd make Dayton in that scenario.

You may be right... I need to look at the bubble a little more in depth. Every year I hear, "no, no.. seriously, THIS YEAR it really is super weak!!"... seems like it may be true this season.. but so many variables.. I'll probably be worried even if we go 10-8 and win 1 in the BET..

But.. there are some potential 6 or 7 seeds... how upset would they be to play us as a 10 or 11? Scary proposition. PLEASE let us just get there!!

[jsglow]

You may be right... I need to look at the bubble a little more in depth. Every year I hear, "no, no.. seriously, THIS YEAR it really is super weak!!"... seems like it may be true this season.. but so many variables.. I'll probably be worried even if we go 10-8 and win 1 in the BET..

But.. there are some potential 6 or 7 seeds... how upset would they be to play us as a 10 or 11? Scary proposition. PLEASE let us just get there!!

Really JB? That would be 2-3 more top 50 wins. I'd venture that puts us on the #7 line.

[Jay Bee]

Really JB? That would be 2-3 more top 50 wins. I'd venture that puts us on the #7 line.

10-8 + 1 BET win could mean ZERO more top 50 wins.

[MUBigDance]

Here's the breakdown of what's left:

Xavier 8-6
@SHall, Butler, MU, @DePaul
Prediction: 2-2

Marquette 7-7
SJU, @Prov, @Xavier, Creighton
Prediction: ??

Seton Hall 6-8
Xavier, @DePaul, GTown, @Butler
Prediction: 2-2

Providence 6-8
@Creighton, MU, DePaul, @SJU
Prediction: 1-3

St. John's 6-8
@MU, GTown, @Creighton, Providence
Prediction: 2-2

We've got to find a way to go 3-1.  That'll go a long way to keep that competition behind us.  It starts Tuesday.  MUST win if we want a chance to dance.

Thanks, I like looking up stuff like this...nice to see it all in one place.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Our destiny is in our own hands.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You may be right... I need to look at the bubble a little more in depth. Every year I hear, "no, no.. seriously, THIS YEAR it really is super weak!!"... seems like it may be true this season.. but so many variables.. I'll probably be worried even if we go 10-8 and win 1 in the BET..

But.. there are some potential 6 or 7 seeds... how upset would they be to play us as a 10 or 11? Scary proposition. PLEASE let us just get there!!

I just feel like after the top 25 or so teams, things really open up. Just doesn't seem like there is that much separation. Everyone is racking up losses. There will be multiple under .500 P6 teams in the dance. There are virtually no teams out of mid major conferences outside of Gonzaga, St Mary's, Dayton, VCU and Wichita State that are legitimate at large candidates. There's a couple others that have a chance - Illinois State, Middle Tennessee, Houston - but realistically their resumes just don't match up with teams like Marquette, Seton Hall, and other ACC, SEC and B12 bubble teams. If the committee really is moving away from RPI as a raw stat, and using it moreso as a metric for top 50 and top 100 wins, MU is going to be in the dance at 9-9. A scenario that does worry me a bit is 9-9 (win next two, drop final two) and a first round BET loss, leaving us with a 3 game losing streak heading into SS. We need to win our last 2 home games.

[PGsHeroes32]

You may be right... I need to look at the bubble a little more in depth. Every year I hear, "no, no.. seriously, THIS YEAR it really is super weak!!"... seems like it may be true this season.. but so many variables.. I'll probably be worried even if we go 10-8 and win 1 in the BET..

But.. there are some potential 6 or 7 seeds... how upset would they be to play us as a 10 or 11? Scary proposition. PLEASE let us just get there!!

How do you feel about us vs the Gophers? Lol

Hope it doesn't happen tho

[jsglow]

10-8 + 1 BET win could mean ZERO more top 50 wins.

JB, you take pride in your statistics.  Going 10-8 guarantees at least one more top 50 win as we play both Xavier (#17) and Creighton (#22) and must win at least 1 of them to achieve the record indicated.  My scenario of 2 with 10-8 and 1 in BEast is probably the median.  And from everything I can tell, your scenario isn't even possible.  I'm happy to be corrected if my math is somehow wrong.

[Jay Bee]

JB, you take pride in your statistics.  Going 10-8 guarantees at least one more top 50 win as we play both Xavier (#17) and Creighton (#22) and must win at least 1 of them to achieve the record indicated.  My scenario of 2 with 10-8 and 1 in BEast is probably the median.  And from everything I can tell, your scenario isn't even possible.  I'm happy to be corrected if my math is somehow wrong.

In all likelihood, going 10-8 would mean another top 50 win (and I'd actually feel OK about things, but I'd still be nervous). But, a couple of things why my scenario is possible. 1) we're probably going to lose one of our 'top 50 wins' (Vandy, for example) and beating X or Creighton would just keep us even with where we are today. 2) a scenario of Xavier continuing their awful slide and then losing to DePaul in the BET is "possible" -- this would put them right around 50, and the possibility of them being outside of 50 is real.

So, 2) is unlikely. 1) is more likely than not.

In fact, if MU beat X or Creighton, I think a money line would probably go to us ending the year with 1 fewer top 50 wins than we have today (Seton Hall & Vandy) go bye bye.

How do you feel about us vs the Gophers? Lol

Hope it doesn't happen tho

I've thought about it. Hope it doesn't happen either, but Marquette is a better team. The Gophers offense is awful - people praise Nate Mason, but he's shooting 40.6% eFG% in the B1G. Great 2FG% defense thanks to shot blocking and altering, but if Marquette has their normal night from 3-point range, dunzo.

[PGsHeroes32]

I've thought about it. Hope it doesn't happen either, but Marquette is a better team. The Gophers offense is awful - people praise Nate Mason, but he's shooting 40.6% eFG% in the B1G. Great 2FG% defense thanks to shot blocking and altering, but if Marquette has their normal night from 3-point range, dunzo.

Yeah Ive thought about it too and Ive always felt that if the teams played assuming MU wasn't off completely they held the edge. Especially when Lynch gets in his usual foul trouble.

Also have a buddy who thinks Mason is one of the greatest gophers ever. Never listens to me on his efficiency.

[jsglow]

In all likelihood, going 10-8 would mean another top 50 win (and I'd actually feel OK about things, but I'd still be nervous). But, a couple of things why my scenario is possible. 1) we're probably going to lose one of our 'top 50 wins' (Vandy, for example) and beating X or Creighton would just keep us even with where we are today. 2) a scenario of Xavier continuing their awful slide and then losing to DePaul in the BET is "possible" -- this would put them right around 50, and the possibility of them being outside of 50 is real.

So, 2) is unlikely. 1) is more likely than not.

In fact, if MU beat X or Creighton, I think a money line would probably go to us ending the year with 1 fewer top 50 wins than we have today (Seton Hall & Vandy) go bye bye.

Okay, fair enough.  Especially Vandy dropping out.  Heck, that'll just improve our mark against the 51-100!  We get to 10 plus a BET win I'll peg us at a 8 seed.

[muguru]

In all likelihood, going 10-8 would mean another top 50 win (and I'd actually feel OK about things, but I'd still be nervous). But, a couple of things why my scenario is possible. 1) we're probably going to lose one of our 'top 50 wins' (Vandy, for example) and beating X or Creighton would just keep us even with where we are today. 2) a scenario of Xavier continuing their awful slide and then losing to DePaul in the BET is "possible" -- this would put them right around 50, and the possibility of them being outside of 50 is real.

So, 2) is unlikely. 1) is more likely than not.

In fact, if MU beat X or Creighton, I think a money line would probably go to us ending the year with 1 fewer top 50 wins than we have today (Seton Hall & Vandy) go bye bye.

I've thought about it. Hope it doesn't happen either, but Marquette is a better team. The Gophers offense is awful - people praise Nate Mason, but he's shooting 40.6% eFG% in the B1G. Great 2FG% defense thanks to shot blocking and altering, but if Marquette has their normal night from 3-point range, dunzo.

But...Georgia could move in even if Vandy drops out, or could move in regardless of what happens with Vandy.

[muguru]

Here's the breakdown of what's left:

Xavier 8-6
@SHall, Butler, MU, @DePaul
Prediction: 2-2

Marquette 7-7
SJU, @Prov, @Xavier, Creighton
Prediction: ??

Seton Hall 6-8
Xavier, @DePaul, GTown, @Butler
Prediction: 2-2

Providence 6-8
@Creighton, MU, DePaul, @SJU
Prediction: 1-3

St. John's 6-8
@MU, GTown, @Creighton, Providence
Prediction: 2-2

We've got to find a way to go 3-1.  That'll go a long way to keep that competition behind us.  It starts Tuesday.  MUST win if we want a chance to dance.

This is good stuff, except you forgot one team..Creighton..I realize these are bubble teams and Creighton isn't, but the reason i say you forgot Creighton is that if MU wins out and goes 10-8, I'd say it's VERY likely(Since Creighton has to play Nova next Saturday) that MU would finish third in the BE then(Creighton would also be 10-8 losses to MU and Nova), but MU would own tiebreaker.

[Jay Bee]

But...Georgia could move in even if Vandy drops out, or could move in regardless of what happens with Vandy.

Georgia's RPI ranking has almost nothing to do with Vandy being in the top 50 RPI, but they certainly do not project to be a top 50 team on Selection Sunday. Possible, but even before Maten's knee injury, they didn't project to wind up in the top 50...