Bubble Watch

[BM1090]

I'd be pretty concerned with scenario 4, but we'd probably be really close. 

By the way, I think it is unlikely that we go 1-1 and get the 7 seed (scenario 2).  I think the only way that could happen is a loss @ X, and win vs. Creighton, and then all of Creighton, SHU and X finish at 10-8. Possible, but requires X and SHU to win out, and SHU has to play @ Butler.  We hold the tie breaker with SHU, X and Creighton - even with a loss against X and/or Creighton this week. PC owns the tie breaker over us if we're the only 2 that finish at 9-9.

Any 3 way tie with PC and SHU we lose. So a loss to X, a win vs. Creighton, and then a 3 way tie with PC, SHU and MU, we would get the 7 seed. Mini conference would be PC 3-1, SHU 2-2, MU 1-3.

We win any 2 way tiebreaker with X, CU, or SHU at 9-9 due to either a sweep or our win over Nova.

I think.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Any 3 way tie with PC and SHU we lose. So a loss to X, a win vs. Creighton, and then a 3 way tie with PC, SHU and MU, we would get the 7 seed. Mini conference would be PC 3-1, SHU 2-2, MU 1-3.

Yep..thanks.  Missed that scenario. 

I think at this point with the way PC has been playing, they're going to get to 10 wins.  But ya never know...could see  them losing @ SJU on Saturday, I guess.  It'll be kind of double edged sword then, because only way we could get up to a 3 seed is PC losing one of their last 2 games, but if they lose 1, and we lose 1, and SHU loses @ Butler, we need to hope either Creighton or X ends up at 9-9 as well, or we could fall to 7.  Beyond the obvious of not wanting to fall to the 7, I wanted to avoid Depaul all together, but from your RPI wizard scenarios and when I've run them as well, I was surprised that simply playing Depaul didn't sink our RPI more. 

[BM1090]

Yep..thanks.  Missed that scenario. 

I think at this point with the way PC has been playing, they're going to get to 10 wins.  But ya never know...could see  them losing @ SJU on Saturday, I guess.  It'll be kind of double edged sword then, because only way we could get up to a 3 seed is PC losing one of their last 2 games, but if they lose 1, and we lose 1, and SHU loses @ Butler, we need to hope either Creighton or X ends up at 9-9 as well, or we could fall to 7.  Beyond the obvious of not wanting to fall to the 7, I wanted to avoid Depaul all together, but from your RPI wizard scenarios and when I've run them as well, I was surprised that simply playing Depaul didn't sink our RPI more.

I think if we beat X on Wednesday, then we clinch a 6 at worst? That would drop them to 8-9 and they couldn't pass us in the standings or win a tiebreaker with us. Maybe a 4 or 5 way tie we could lose a tiebreaker?

From an RPI standpoint, it would be slightly better to win against CU and lose against X, if we are going to lose one. But to avoid the 7 seed, beating X would be more valuable. I can't see CU losing to SJU this week.

[GoldenDieners32]

I think if we beat X on Wednesday, then we clinch a 6 at worst? That would drop them to 8-9 and they couldn't pass us in the standings or win a tiebreaker with us. Maybe a 4 or 5 way tie we could lose a tiebreaker?

From an RPI standpoint, it would be slightly better to win against CU and lose against X, if we are going to lose one. But to avoid the 7 seed, beating X would be more valuable. I can't see CU losing to SJU this week.

Id love to be a lower seed then we have a good chance at playing a good team in the BET

[BM1090]

Id love to be a lower seed then we have a good chance at playing a good team in the BET

Being the 6 seed would be great. Being the 7 seed and getting stuck in a first round game against DePaul would be terrible.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

1st four out:

Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
     Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
     Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 6-11

Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
      Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
      Record vs. top 50: 1-9
      Record vs top 100: 6-12

Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
       Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-3
       Record vs. top 100: 4-7

Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
       Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 8-11

And Marquette as a comp:

Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-6
       Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10

     

Other at-large hopefuls:


Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
       Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
       Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (45), RPI (33), Sagrin (52), BPI (57), SOR (39)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
       Record vs. top 100: 2-3

Kansas State 17-12 (6-10)
       Remaining Schedule: @ TCU, vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
       Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
       Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (68), Sagrin (44), BPI (42), SOR (51)
       Record vs. top 50: 3-8
       Record vs. top 100: 4-11

TCU 17-12 (6-10)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. K State, @ Oklahoma
       Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
       Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (60), Sagrin (45), BPI (52), SOR (48)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-10
       Record vs. top 100: 5-12

Houston 20-8 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina
       Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
       Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (38), RPI (54), Sagrin (46), BPI (35), SOR (58)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-4
       Record vs. top 100: 3-5


Again...Marquette as a comp:

Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-6
       Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10

[We R Final Four]

One of ISU's best wins is at home vs. Tulsa and one of their worst losses was @ Tulsa?
What the heck happened to Tulsa??????

[MarquetteDano]

Seeing that differential between Illinois State and Marquette in their RPI's really shows how poor the RPI is.  In what world is Illinois State some 40 spots better than us when you look at their schedule?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

One of ISU's best wins is at home vs. Tulsa and one of their worst losses was @ Tulsa?
What the heck happened to Tulsa??????

That's how horrible their schedule is.  Honestly, whoever doesn't win the MVC tourney doesn't deserve an at large.  They've beaten NOBODY.

[BM1090]

That's how horrible their schedule is.  Honestly, whoever doesn't win the MVC tourney doesn't deserve an at large.  They've beaten NOBODY.

I'd be fine with Wichita State getting in. Other than ISU their three losses are to tournament teams (Louisville, Oklahoma State, Michigan State)

Illinois State probably doesn't deserve it unless they win the MVC tournament. They beat nobody in non-conference and have losses to San Francisco, Murray State and Tulsa.

The good news is I think WSU is clearly the best team in the MVC and since they are on the bubble they will be motivated as hell to go out and win that tournament.

[skianth16]

Seeing that differential between Illinois State and Marquette in their RPI's really shows how poor the RPI is.  In what world is Illinois State some 40 spots better than us when you look at their schedule?

It's clear that our schedule is not even close to comparable to ISU's, but at the same time, they've only lost one game since Christmas. Regardless of what conference you play in, that's a pretty impressive feat. ISU has a weak schedule, sure, but they've also won the vast majority of the games they should have won. 25-5 is nothing to sneeze at.

That said, having seen them play a little bit, I think we, along with any other power 6 team, would probably walk all over ISU regardless of where the game was played.

[MUMountin]

1st four out:

Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
     Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
     Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 6-11

Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
      Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
      Record vs. top 50: 1-9
      Record vs top 100: 6-12

Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
       Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-3
       Record vs. top 100: 4-7

Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
       Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 8-11   

Other at-large hopefuls:


Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
       Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
       Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (45), RPI (33), Sagrin (52), BPI (57), SOR (39)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
       Record vs. top 100: 2-3

Kansas State 17-12 (6-10)
       Remaining Schedule: @ TCU, vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
       Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
       Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (68), Sagrin (44), BPI (42), SOR (51)
       Record vs. top 50: 3-8
       Record vs. top 100: 4-11

TCU 17-12 (6-10)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. K State, @ Oklahoma
       Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
       Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (60), Sagrin (45), BPI (52), SOR (48)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-10
       Record vs. top 100: 5-12

Houston 20-8 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina
       Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
       Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (38), RPI (54), Sagrin (46), BPI (35), SOR (58)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-4
       Record vs. top 100: 3-5


Again...Marquette as a comp:

Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-6
       Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10

FWIW, I did a quick comparison on Bracket Matrix of who is bumping us in the 11 brackets that do not include us, to get a real sense of which of these teams might be viewed as the most likely competition for those last few spots.  I didn't include teams that appeared in every bracket for purposes of this comparison. 

Wichita State: 11
USC: 11
Seton Hall: 11
Providence: 10
Vanderbilt: 9
Cal: 9
Illinois State: 8
Wake Forest: 7
Syracuse: 6
Rhode Island: 6
Kansas State: 5
TCU: 2
Georgia: 2
Illinois: 1
Houston: 1
GT, G'Town, Clemson, Indiana: 0

[bilsu]

Things would get really messy, if Creighton lost their last two and St John's won their last two. I believe is still possible for a 6 team tie at 9-9. Not likely, but it is possible.

[muguru]

I have never rooted harder for any teams in my life then I will be this week rooting for DePaul(god that makes me almost wanna vomit), and SJU vs. PC. I want that 3 seed in the worst way. Now watch, MU would get the needed help, and go gag one away AGAIN. 

[Herman Cain]

I have never rooted harder for any teams in my life then I will be this week rooting for DePaul(god that makes me almost wanna vomit), and SJU vs. PC. I want that 3 seed in the worst way. Now watch, MU would get the needed help, and go gag one away AGAIN. 

oh ye of little faith

[BM1090]

Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.

Also have Troy @ UT Arlington. UT-A in all likelihood needs to win the Sun Belt but a loss tonight takes away 1 more somewhat interesting non P6 canididate.

[Herman Cain]

Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.

Really nice win for Buzz and The Hokies.

[Lennys Tap]

Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.

Yeah, VTech was 95% before, 100% now. Don't think they'll last long without their best rebounder, though.

[nyg]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/gallery/college-basketball-bracketology-bubble-teams-update-syracuse-wake-forest-indiana-illinois-marquette-022717

[Windyplayer]

ESPN Bubble Watch update:

Marquette [17-11 (8-8), RPI: 69, SOS: 67] Marquette was the latest victim of Providence's unrelenting push into the field, falling 73-69 on Saturday at the Dunkin' Donuts Center in Providence, R.I., which essentially left the Golden Eagles in the same place they've been for weeks, if not months: on the bubble. The RPI and nonconference strength of schedule (in the low 240s) is shaky, but wins over Creighton and Villanova (and three other top-50 victories) are more than a lot of bubble teams can boast. Marquette may get more yet: Next up is Wednesday's trip to Xavier, followed by a weekend home game against Creighton.

Fair.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/gallery/college-basketball-bracketology-bubble-teams-update-syracuse-wake-forest-indiana-illinois-marquette-022717

From Fox Sports Bubble Summary:

Had they just beaten the teams they were supposed to (Georgetown, St.  John’s), the Golden Eagles wouldn’t be playing for their tournament lives right now. Instead, they need to win at least one of their final two games to feel good about making the Big Dance. Winning both obviously wouldn't hurt.

...so they think we only need 1/2.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Georgetown @ Seton Hall

Depaul @ Providence

Vandy @ Kentucky (looks like Vandy may have locked up a top 50 RPI...not sure we want them to win this)

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech



Fringe Bubble (long shots at best)

Indiana @ Purdue

Miami @ Akron

Ohio State @ Penn State

[Galway Eagle]

From Fox Sports Bubble Summary:

Had they just beaten the teams they were supposed to (Georgetown, St.  John’s), the Golden Eagles wouldn’t be playing for their tournament lives right now. Instead, they need to win at least one of their final two games to feel good about making the Big Dance. Winning both obviously wouldn't hurt.

...so they think we only need 1/2.

Honestly of all the losses I think those two are lower on our list of what ifs. Teams come out flat, it happens. Plus we aren't historically great at the garden so I expected that one. What we should've done is be better against the middle of the pack. Heck I'd take a loss to a team that's out if it meant a win over Providence or Seton hall right now.

[murara1994]

Honestly of all the losses I think those two are lower on our list of what ifs. Teams come out flat, it happens. Plus we aren't historically great at the garden so I expected that one. What we should've done is be better against the middle of the pack. Heck I'd take a loss to a team that's out if it meant a win over Providence or Seton hall right now.

The one that still kills me is the first Providence loss. Huge letdown after Nova, come out flat, still should have won if not for uncharacteristic hot 3 pt shooting from Providence.