Bubble Watch

[KampusFoods]

No way we are favored at GT and probably not Provdence either. Probably XU at home though.

Furthers my point. Not getting 6 out 8 games, of which we are favored in 3.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.

I think this is off in an number of ways.  I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 will be difficult.

[KampusFoods]

I think this is off in an number of ways.  I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 will be difficult.

Which is why I said 4 is most realistic. Sure we could get to 5. We also could win 3. Or 2. I just think 4 is realistic. Even if we drop one of the four "easy" games, there's a chance we get one back from Butler, CU, X.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't see any more then 5 getting in.

Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks.  They're all making the NCAA tournament.  Book it.

Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot.  Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.

I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility.  7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET.  But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.

With the Nova & Creighton wins we are safely in with 10 regular season wins we would be in 4th or tied for 4th.

With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th.  Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

RPI Forecast has 19-11 as ever so slightly more probable than 18-12...basically a coin flip.

The also has MU favored vs DePaul and St. John's by 9 plus, 5.4 underdogs at Xavier.  The other 5 games range from 1 point favorites to 2 point under dogs.

Win the two we're supposed to and 3 coin flips.  Otherwise work left heading to BET.

[GoldenDieners32]

We got this, players will get their heads back on track. We are fine, just a set back

[breadtree]

Major divergence between predictive models (KenPom, et al) and the abomination that is the RPI this year.  Marquette is 37 in KenPom, but only 65 in RPI.  The committee has made it clear they intend to move away from RPI, but how much will it factor in this year. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Major divergence between predictive models (KenPom, et al) and the abomination that is the RPI this year.  Marquette is 37 in KenPom, but only 65 in RPI.  The committee has made it clear they intend to move away from RPI, but how much will it factor in this year.

Was up to 40ish after Nova game.  Still have time to improve RPI.  Posted in another thread, but 11 wins we'll be mid 40s, 10 wins mid 50s, 9 wins mid 60s.  Obviously depends a bit on which games we win and lose, but generally thats what it looks like when running a few scenarios.  This is pre BET.

[BrewCity83]

I think this is off in an number of ways.  I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 another win will be difficult.

FIFY

[Galway Eagle]

I watch as much BE basketball as I can. Saw Creighton beat Butler at Hinkle. Saw X beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us. Beatable, no doubt, but could also blow us out if we're brickin 3s.

I'm not confident enough in our offense to consistently make up for the total ineptitude of the defense.

so you're basing this entire thing on the transitive property? That doesn't work in college basketball and if you think it does then [insert insult here]

For crying out loud we're playing Depaul on Saturday, we destroyed Depaul but they beat Providence who beat us. One of two things happened after you read that, either your head exploded trying to figure it out or you realized that saying something like "saw x beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us" is idiotic.

[KampusFoods]

so you're basing this entire thing on the transitive property? That doesn't work in college basketball and if you think it does then [insert insult here]

For crying out loud we're playing Depaul on Saturday, we destroyed Depaul but they beat Providence who beat us. One of two things happened after you read that, either your head exploded trying to figure it out or you realized that saying something like "saw x beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us" is idiotic.

Slow down, James.

Highlight the part where I said "Xavier beat St. Johns, therefore they will beat us," please. Reading is hard.

You asked if I had seen X or Creighton lately. I told you that I had, and gave you the results of their recent games. I also said that they are beatable. Which part of this implies that I believe the transitive property applies to CBB?

And if you think losing to Depaul is not a possibility, I'd think again. Our lack of defense allows us to lose to anyone in the league.

[wadesworld]

Only game that matters is Saturday's.

[Lennys Tap]

We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.

We won't be favored at Providence or at Georgetown. We may, however, be favored at home vs Creighton, Xavier and Butler.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Only game that matters is Saturday's.

Thanks, Coach!

[Windyplayer]

That didn't work against SJU. Let's look ahead and see what happens.

[Galway Eagle]

Slow down, James.

Highlight the part where I said "Xavier beat St. Johns, therefore they will beat us," please. Reading is hard.

You asked if I had seen X or Creighton lately. I told you that I had, and gave you the results of their recent games. I also said that they are beatable. Which part of this implies that I believe the transitive property applies to CBB?

And if you think losing to Depaul is not a possibility, I'd think again. Our lack of defense allows us to lose to anyone in the league.

It's JP, thank you.

Admittedly I was venting more because of a sh*t day at work. My bad for rant.

I also chose not to read the "beatable" portion because it's easier to respond irrationally (see how I met your mothers chain of screaming)

Losing to DePaul is always possible I was there in 2010, and there two years ago so I know it's possible but I do not see it after being at this years DePaul game.

[buckchuckler]

Only game that matters is Saturday's.

Hmm. Definitely not true.  Winning Saturday and losing out would be pretty catastrophic. 

[wadesworld]

Hmm. Definitely not true.  Winning Saturday and losing out would be pretty catastrophic.

We can worry about the losing out part after Saturday.

[Newsdreams]

Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks.  They're all making the NCAA tournament.  Book it.

Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot.  Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.

I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility.  7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET.  But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.

With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th.  Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.

Not saying we win 10 for sure just responding to some people who think if we get to 10 wins it is no a sure bid. If we get to 10 wins we'll be dancing.

[GoldenDieners32]

Not saying we win 10 for sure just responding to some people who think if we get to 10 wins it is no a sure bid. If we get to 10 wins we'll be dancing.

Why do you think this? Is it because the bubble right now is soft/weak?

[Big Papi]

Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks.  They're all making the NCAA tournament.  Book it.

Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot.  Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.

I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility.  7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET.  But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.

With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th.  Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.

Providence is 4-7 in conference.  Seton Hall is 3-6.  St. John's has a losing record.  None of them are making the tourney.  If they go on a major winning streak, means that someone else is slipping and it could be us.  I don't see anyone outside the top 4 winning the conference tournament.

[brewcity77]

Why do you think this? Is it because the bubble right now is soft/weak?

Yes, and because if we get to 10, we will have enough good wins to offset any bad losses. Creighton and Villanova are already strong wins, and to get to 10 we would (at worst) get wins against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier.

What if we lose to one of the first couple but still get to 10? That means more wins against Butler, Creighton, or Xavier. Bottom line, get to 10, we get in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Providence is 4-7 in conference.  Seton Hall is 3-6.  St. John's has a losing record.  None of them are making the tourney.  If they go on a major winning streak, means that someone else is slipping and it could be us.  I don't see anyone outside the top 4 winning the conference tournament.

Pay more attention. Seton Hall is very much still alive. Gtown making a run. PC far from dead.

[GoldenDieners32]

Yes, and because if we get to 10, we will have enough good wins to offset any bad losses. Creighton and Villanova are already strong wins, and to get to 10 we would (at worst) get wins against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier.

What if we lose to one of the first couple but still get to 10? That means more wins against Butler, Creighton, or Xavier. Bottom line, get to 10, we get in.

Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?

They just need to get to 10. Doesn't matter how.

9 probably doesn't do it w a loss to DePaul tho. 9 May do it with some other combos of wins / losses.