Is MU's Defense Just Unlucky?

[mu03eng]

This thread is about defense not offense.  I don't disagree we are an excellent offense.  I don't disagree we are better than those teams.  My point is considerably lesser talented teams are finding a way to play better defense than us.  That is not cherry picking.  As of right now,  those are better defensive teams.

Defense impacts offense and vice versa so you can't view them independently. The defense is intended to generate misses and rebounds that can lead to run outs. If you tweak the defense too much you hurt the offense. As an example Wojo could absolutely improve the defense if we played the line-up of Howard, Haanif, Duane, Hauser, and Heldt max minutes....but the offense will suffer significantly.

[MarquetteDano]

Defense impacts offense and vice versa so you can't view them independently. The defense is intended to generate misses and rebounds that can lead to run outs. If you tweak the defense too much you hurt the offense. As an example Wojo could absolutely improve the defense if we played the line-up of Howard, Haanif, Duane, Hauser, and Heldt max minutes....but the offense will suffer significantly.

No question the two impact one another but there is nothing about our offense than would leave me to believe we can't at least be a decent defense.  Even if you played our best offensive lineup I would take those players defensively versus some of the schools I listed above.  Yet those schools have found a way to play some D.

There is something afoot in our defensive philosophy.  I hope like Sugar says that in Big East play sans Nova and 2nd Butler it is improving.  If we end up outside the Top 100 by the end of the year there is something very wrong.

[brewcity77]

This thread is about defense not offense.  I don't disagree we are an excellent offense.  I don't disagree we are better than those teams.  My point is considerably lesser talented teams are finding a way to play better defense than us.  That is not cherry picking.  As of right now,  those are better defensive teams.

I just can't take it seriously. You mention one high-major team, and that's Rutgers. How much of Rutgers' adjusted defense is because of their 10 wins over sub-180 teams? The best offense Rutgers has beat was #133 Fairleigh Dickinson, and no one else is top-150. They fluffed numbers against terrible teams and of their 8 losses to high major teams, only two were by single-digits, which makes it easier to get decent defensive stats when teams have you soundly beat and don't need to run up the score.

I'm fine with making those comparisons when talking about like-powered teams, say other high-major teams that have been discussed for the bubble like Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, or Arkansas (though they may all be playing themselves off the bubble) but random weak teams that beat up on cupcakes then get beat up themselves or low-majors that wouldn't know what an at-large bid was if you spotted them 30 wins and a conference finals berth just aren't worth comparing.

[connie]

Damn you Sugar and your analytical data driven reality.  I had just about broken free of the fever swamp and you drag me right back.  Can't we fire someone now?

[El Duderino]

88th in defense last year and currently ranked 139th per Pomeroy.  That is not bad luck.

The players on this team would never be a top 25 defense but I hold the coaching responsible for not having at least a top 75 defense given the personnel on this team.

Yea, this is the third year Wojo has been the head coach and it looks like this will be three years in a row where the defense under him pretty much sucks. Hard to blame that just on bad luck.

That by no means is something where i think he should be fired after the season, but at some point he can't keep putting teams on the court who are soft and weak defensively. Most of the players on the roster are guys he brought in and it's not as if other coaches who take a job don't inherit players, yet are able to get their teams to defend much better than he has.

Wojo seems to be a good man and recruiter, but it remains to be seen as to whether he can coach as well as he can recruit. College basketball history is littered with quality recruiters who were only mediocre on the coaching side of things. Hopefully he doesn't end up falling into that category. 

[MarquetteDano]

I just can't take it seriously. You mention one high-major team, and that's Rutgers. How much of Rutgers' adjusted defense is because of their 10 wins over sub-180 teams? The best offense Rutgers has beat was #133 Fairleigh Dickinson, and no one else is top-150. They fluffed numbers against terrible teams and of their 8 losses to high major teams, only two were by single-digits, which makes it easier to get decent defensive stats when teams have you soundly beat and don't need to run up the score.

You accused me of cherry picking so you just pick one team on the list.  The point is there are certainly less talented teams that play better defense than us.  Is some of that because of a slow-down style that leads to poor offense?  Maybe.  Is some of it due to teams getting blown out so their opponent has a second string for their offense?  I am sure.

But 18 games into the season if there are 130+ plus teams that are ranked higher than you by Pomeroy, that is really poor.  And there are not all high majors and even good mid majors in that 130+ list.

If trends continue,  this is going to be worst defensive team since the NIT team in 2004-2005.  Fortunately,  this team is much better offensively so the tournament is still a possibility.  Gotta D up.

[brewcity77]

You accused me of cherry picking so you just pick one team on the list.  The point is there are certainly less talented teams that play better defense than us.  Is some of that because of a slow-down style that leads to poor offense?  Maybe.  Is some of it due to teams getting blown out so their opponent has a second string for their offense?  I am sure.

But 18 games into the season if there are 130+ plus teams that are ranked higher than you by Pomeroy, that is really poor.  And there are not all high majors and even good mid majors in that 130+ list.

If trends continue,  this is going to be worst defensive team since the NIT team in 2004-2005.  Fortunately,  this team is much better offensively so the tournament is still a possibility.  Gotta D up.

I only picked Rutgers because you only included one high-major on your list. If you had provided more high-major examples, I'd have been happy to debate them, but it's hard to seriously discuss teams that spend most of their season playing against sub-150 teams.

I'm not saying the defense is good, but the comparisons you picked were poor. I only cherry picked because there was nothing else on your list worth discussing.

[MarquetteDano]

I only picked Rutgers because you only included one high-major on your list. If you had provided more high-major examples, I'd have been happy to debate them, but it's hard to seriously discuss teams that spend most of their season playing against sub-150 teams.

I'm not saying the defense is good, but the comparisons you picked were poor. I only cherry picked because there was nothing else on your list worth discussing.

Well Pomeroy adjusts for schedule.  If his system doesn't work because teams are mid majors or low majors you are going to making millions betting in Vegas as they use his and similar ratings to determine betting lines.

[brewcity77]

Well Pomeroy adjusts for schedule.  If his system doesn't work because teams are mid majors or low majors you are going to making millions betting in Vegas as they use his and similar ratings to determine betting lines.

Sure, but look at Marquette this year. We outperformed those expectations against low-majors by sizable margins in most cases. I just don't see it as an apples to oranges comparison. You can feel free to disagree. When it comes to us and say Robert Morris, we're certainly not playing the same game, and I'm not even sure they are playing the same sport.

[MarquetteDano]

Sure, but look at Marquette this year. We outperformed those expectations against low-majors by sizable margins in most cases. I just don't see it as an apples to oranges comparison. You can feel free to disagree. When it comes to us and say Robert Morris, we're certainly not playing the same game, and I'm not even sure they are playing the same sport.

Well this we can agree on.  I think the defense is awful and doesn't seem to be any better or improving this year.  You think it needs work but is getting better.

We both hope I am wrong and you are right.

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, we are sacrificing this season on defense to teach a system only applicable to four guys who will play minutes next year?  If we play defense like Wojo's first season, MU is a 2nd place team (just don't play offense like that team).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So, we are sacrificing this season on defense to teach a system only applicable to four guys who will play minutes next year?  If we play defense like Wojo's first season, MU is a 2nd place team (just don't play offense like that team).

I don't think that defense would work with our personnel this season. Sandy, Steve, and Juan provided a lot of length and could play at the top or bottom of the zone. Derrick was a rare guard with enough strength to play at the bottom of the zone. I also think we'd get abused on the boards and our offense would slow down. Just my opinion.

[Class71]

I do not believe our D is bad due to luck. We are consistently out of position to defend the rim.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I don't think that defense would work with our personnel this season. Sandy, Steve, and Juan provided a lot of length and could play at the top or bottom of the zone. Derrick was a rare guard with enough strength to play at the bottom of the zone. I also think we'd get abused on the boards and our offense would slow down. Just my opinion.

I think that Sandy, Traci and Haani were his only recruits with the athleticism good enough to play his defense. Unfortunately, two of those weren't good enough for his offense. 

His defense ended last season with six straight stinkers.  It also yielded the worst single game statistical performance in modern day Marquette basketball history versus Nova, and perhaps the worst point half ever (the Butler 63 game versus Crean's F4 choke job of 59). 

How could a zone which better suits his personnel be worse?  He sprung it mid game to win a Big East game already this season. Again, with this offense, just incrementally improving from 9th to 5th in the league defensively, means NCAA. 

[tower912]

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2017/01/billy_donlon_defense_1.html#incart_river_home

Remember when MU was so completely shut down by Michigan?

[MarquetteDano]

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2017/01/billy_donlon_defense_1.html#incart_river_home

Remember when MU was so completely shut down by Michigan?

One of the rare teams who still have NCAA at large aspirations who play worse defense than us.

[goinUptown]

This is a nice, succinct explanation of our current situation.  Personally, I wish Wojo would make some adjustments to better suit his current personnel.  I think that's a trait of a good coach.  Wins are difficult to come by and so valuable when you're a potential bubble team like us.  NCAA appearances mean everything at this level, and I feel we should be doing anything we can to get in the tourney every year.  The added future value of sticking with his system seems minimal.  However,  Wojo is ultimately the one accountable for the results.

Frankly I find it nearly impossible to believe Wojo and staff don't do everything they can to win now.  They must feel pressure to succeed in the immediate and holding off optimizing defensive approaches for the sake of teaching principles or whatever other abstraction for kids to learn now and to gain/maintain familiarity over the next years until every one is his player in the system, we'll, I hope that's not the approach. It doesn't seem like good stewardship of the program and short changes those playing on the team now.; handicapping your team that way.

A good coach adapts to talent/specific attributes of his team. Remember when  Wojo using the zone the first couple of years was considered smart and adaptive by many here?

[GGGG]

Frankly I find it nearly impossible to believe Wojo and staff don't do everything they can to win now.  They must feel pressure to succeed in the immediate and holding off optimizing defensive approaches for the sake of teaching principles or whatever other abstraction for kids to learn now and to gain/maintain familiarity over the next years until every one is his player in the system, we'll, I hope that's not the approach. It doesn't seem like good stewardship of the program and short changes those playing on the team now.; handicapping your team that way.

A good coach adapts to talent/specific attributes of his team. Remember when  Wojo using the zone the first couple of years was considered smart and adaptive by many here?

As I said earlier, I am sure Wojo is doing what he can to win now.  He is not adopting the zone because he believes it would make the team worse for a couple reasons.

1. They would give up too many three point shots.  He clearly believes that three point shooting is the key to a basketball offense in today's game.  Therefore he wants to limit the other team's opportunities.

2. It would slow the pace down further and Wojo thinks the offense plays better at a fast pace.  The zone was great two years ago when there was little offensive firepower and he had to be competitive by slugging it out defensively.  That is NOT how he wants to play though.

[mu03eng]

As I said earlier, I am sure Wojo is doing what he can to win now.  He is not adopting the zone because he believes it would make the team worse for a couple reasons.

1. They would give up too many three point shots.  He clearly believes that three point shooting is the key to a basketball offense in today's game.  Therefore he wants to limit the other team's opportunities.

2. It would slow the pace down further and Wojo thinks the offense plays better at a fast pace.  The zone was great two years ago when there was little offensive firepower and he had to be competitive by slugging it out defensively.  That is NOT how he wants to play though.

3. Rebounding would become a disaster

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2017/01/billy_donlon_defense_1.html#incart_river_home

Remember when MU was so completely shut down by Michigan?

Yah, would to play those guys again.

[Jay Bee]

When #mubb holds their opp to >=5.0% LESS than the opp's avg 3FGA/FGA, opp shoots 55.2% 2FG%. Other games, 44.3% 2FG%.

Perhaps we're not so much doing a good job of limiting 3FGA's, rather teams are eating so nicely inside, they're departing from team tendencies in favor of easy buckets

[mu03eng]

When #mubb holds their opp to >=5.0% LESS than the opp's avg 3FGA/FGA, opp shoots 55.2% 2FG%. Other games, 44.3% 2FG%.

Perhaps we're not so much doing a good job of limiting 3FGA's, rather teams are eating so nicely inside, they're departing from team tendencies in favor of easy buckets

Technically a chicken or egg thing, but the defense is definitely predicated on running players off the arc....problem is we force them inside but then can't stop them from getting all the way to the rim.