Is MU's Defense Just Unlucky?

[Henry Sugar]

(spoiler - not really)

I put some of this out there on twitter, but wanted to write it up in longer than 140 characters.

In conference, MU ranks 9th in defensive eFG%. This is largely because they are 10th in the conference at defensive 3pt%. (They are also 5th at defensive 2pt%). However, MU is best in the conference at limiting an opponent's attempts from behind the arc.

One of the recent findings in the data that changed my perspective is that there is limited defensive control over an opponent's three point %. I didn't believe it either, but then, you know, data. In other words, the opponent's offense has much more control over how many of their threes they make than the defense.

On the other hand, what a defense /can/ control is how many threes their opponent attempts. This is where MU is currently best in the conference. In the link below, the coach that shows up as best all time in Pomeroy's analysis is Coach K. It's not an accident that this is similar for Marquette.

In addition, three's have a high degree of variance. Not only are they worth 150% the points, but the number of overall attempts are much more reduced. Higher numerator / Smaller denominator = increased variance. If you want to put it another way... luck.

Now, I am NOT arguing that MU's terrible defense is all just bad luck. I think Wojo gets killed on 2H adjustments and there are player issues contributing as well. Jay Bee points out that MU is much worse on 2pt% in the losses. Fundamentally, bad 2 pt% defense is the root cause.

However, I believe that there may be some variance that is compounding the issues on defense. For example, in the 2H yesterday, Butler shot 68% from inside the arc. That's bad defense. However, they also shot 80% from behind the arc on five attempts. That's variance.

In summary, while I think MU's defense is not good, I also believe that part of the recent struggles are because of 3PT%. I'll be watching both the defensive 3PA/FGA numbers and the defensive 3PT% numbers for the rest of the season. If the theory is right, then MU's defense should get an upgrade from "epically bad" to "bad".

Note: We're still only talking six conference games, so the 3PA/FGA ranking may be also affected by sample size. MU's full-season 3PA/FGA rank is #85, which isn't particularly remarkable.

Some light reading
http://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-3point-percentage/

http://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-threepoint-attempts/

[GGGG]

So assuming that Wojo employs the same defensive philosophy as his mentor, *this* is why you don't see zones or pack line defenses.  He wants to limit their three attempts.  (Which make sense since then he also values shooters offensively.)

But here is what you need to make that work because when you chase people off the three point line, you are going to create penetration:

1. Be real good on rotations.  Marquette has gotten better, but still isn't great.
2. A mobile big.  Very often the defense breaks down when their big sets the pick up top.  Luke isn't quick enough to recover.
3. It would be nice if that big can be a rim protector.

That is why I am wondering if we are going to see more bigs like John and Eke in the future.

[GGGG]

Henry, can some of the "variance" be due to Marquette's lack of height on the perimeter?

[mu03eng]

So assuming that Wojo employs the same defensive philosophy as his mentor, *this* is why you don't see zones or pack line defenses.  He wants to limit their three attempts.  (Which make sense since then he also values shooters offensively.)

But here is what you need to make that work because when you chase people off the three point line, you are going to create penetration:

1. Be real good on rotations.  Marquette has gotten better, but still isn't great.
2. A mobile big.  Very often the defense breaks down when their big sets the pick up top.  Luke isn't quick enough to recover.
3. It would be nice if that big can be a rim protector.

That is why I am wondering if we are going to see more bigs like John and Eke in the future.

This is all 100% correct in my book. What we are seeing from a defensive strategy standpoint is a slight modification of what we will see once Wojo has the players he wants. Wojo wants to limit 3pt shots in exchange for giving up less efficient mid-range jumpers.

Luke isn't quick enough and JjJ gambles too much for it to fully work this year. This is why I think our best defensive line-up is 4H-D line (Howard, Haanif, Duane, Hauser, Hedlt). That line-up struggles defensively so you can modified it some by replacing Duane with Katin but when we are most efficeint on D is without JjJ/Fischer. It's counter intuitive because of JjJ steal rate but his gambling when it doesn't work negatively impacts an already weak defensive rotation.

[brewcity77]

So assuming that Wojo employs the same defensive philosophy as his mentor, *this* is why you don't see zones or pack line defenses.  He wants to limit their three attempts.  (Which make sense since then he also values shooters offensively.)

But here is what you need to make that work because when you chase people off the three point line, you are going to create penetration:

1. Be real good on rotations.  Marquette has gotten better, but still isn't great.
2. A mobile big.  Very often the defense breaks down when their big sets the pick up top.  Luke isn't quick enough to recover.
3. It would be nice if that big can be a rim protector.

That is why I am wondering if we are going to see more bigs like John and Eke in the future.

Lots of good stuff here, both from Sugar and Sultan. Here are my two concerns:

1. If we're unlucky (partially) and don't have the roster yet (mostly) does that mean we should see improvement when we can combine a space-eater like Heldt or Harry with a mobile shot-blocker like John or Eke?

2. Is it a worry that Wojo hasn't identified this and adapted his defense to his personnel? Clearly what we're doing doesn't play to Luke's strengths, but with his offensive abilities, he's going to play 25+ mpg. If we don't want to go pack line or zone because we want to limit 3-point attempts, shouldn't there be a recognition of how we are getting decimated inside in these games and adjustments made?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't doubt that MU has been a bit unlucky with other teams hitting 3s.  Seton Hall got crazy hot from 3 and hit prayers in both games to come back.  Villanova went bizzerk from 3. Even Butler has a nice bank job three in the 2H.

But that wasn't the problem against Butler.  It was the endless layups that killed them in the 2H.

[GGGG]

Lots of good stuff here, both from Sugar and Sultan. Here are my two concerns:

1. If we're unlucky (partially) and don't have the roster yet (mostly) does that mean we should see improvement when we can combine a space-eater like Heldt or Harry with a mobile shot-blocker like John or Eke?

2. Is it a worry that Wojo hasn't identified this and adapted his defense to his personnel? Clearly what we're doing doesn't play to Luke's strengths, but with his offensive abilities, he's going to play 25+ mpg. If we don't want to go pack line or zone because we want to limit 3-point attempts, shouldn't there be a recognition of how we are getting decimated inside in these games and adjustments made?

Regarding #2, Wojo would probably rather roll the dice with what he has than what happened v. Villanova when they gave up 14 3s on 23 attempts.  Coaches don't abandon their core philosophies easily.

We were having the same discussions regarding Buzz his early years at MU.  I distinctly remember discussions here about why Buzz doesn't change his defense to fit his personnel.  (I probably said it myself.)  When his players got here and experience, the defense improved.

[mu03eng]

Lots of good stuff here, both from Sugar and Sultan. Here are my two concerns:

1. If we're unlucky (partially) and don't have the roster yet (mostly) does that mean we should see improvement when we can combine a space-eater like Heldt or Harry with a mobile shot-blocker like John or Eke?

2. Is it a worry that Wojo hasn't identified this and adapted his defense to his personnel? Clearly what we're doing doesn't play to Luke's strengths, but with his offensive abilities, he's going to play 25+ mpg. If we don't want to go pack line or zone because we want to limit 3-point attempts, shouldn't there be a recognition of how we are getting decimated inside in these games and adjustments made?

1. Yes

2. There is only so much adjustment you can do. Luke is a perfect player for a zone, but between the rebounding issues that creates and the limitation on breaks it creates not to mention our lack of height on the perimeter, you just can't or even part time.


I think the Butler 2nd half was an example where Wojo was either outcoached or out thought himself in combination with Luke being more awful then any previous game. Should have let Hedlt play more and or thrown a few gimmick zones at Butler just to stop the bleeding.

[mu03eng]

Regarding #2, Wojo would probably rather roll the dice with what he has than what happened v. Villanova when they gave up 14 3s on 23 attempts.  Coaches don't abandon their core philosophies easily.

We were having the same discussions regarding Buzz his early years at MU.  I distinctly remember discussions here about why Buzz doesn't change his defense to fit his personnel.  (I probably said it myself.)  When his players got here and experience, the defense improved.

This is why, among other reasons, a coaching reset at this point would be galatically stupid.

[UticaBusBarn]

Henry, good stuff - thank you.

Let me raise two considerations going to your data.

Is it possible that Luke Fischer has lost his aggressiveness because of fear of fouls? Is the
irony Luke is being less of a protector in the paint and yet continues to commit careless fouls?

Secondly, might it be Coach Wojo so emotionally high strung that he cannot see the proverbial forest for the trees?

I ask the first question because Fischer does not appear to be as aggressive as he was earlier in his Warrior career, but still has trouble with, often cheap, fouls.

As to the other point, it seems Coach Wojo is not able to anticipate adjustments from the opposing team. Plus, in the time out huddles he seems to be of verge of apoplexy. Being as agitated as he is, does not appear to help calm the Warriors - especially during runs by the opposition.

Anyway, the Warriors are just about "right there." Maybe some good luck will help.

[brewcity77]

This is why, among other reasons, a coaching reset at this point would be galatically stupid.

+1 gazillion

Honestly, as much as we talk about length on the interior, I think it's just as big a problem on the perimeter. Sam's a bit undersized at the 4, JJ and Cheatham are only average at the 2/3, both Rowsey and Howard are on the shorter side. Getting bigger 4s that allow guys like Hauser and Cain to play a the 3 or even the 2 should help.

I think the patience is the hardest part for most people here. As tower said the other day, you can see the blueprint and the road map Wojo is following, but to really see it take fruition, it will be 2-3 more years.

[jesmu84]

Henry, good stuff - thank you.

Let me raise two considerations going to your data.

Is it possible that Luke Fischer has lost his aggressiveness because of fear of fouls? Is the
irony Luke is being less of a protector in the paint and yet continues to commit careless fouls?

Secondly, might it be Coach Wojo so emotionally high strung that he cannot see the proverbial forest for the trees?

I ask the first question because Fischer does not appear to be as aggressive as he was earlier in his Warrior career, but still has trouble with, often cheap, fouls.

As to the other point, it seems Coach Wojo is not able to anticipate adjustments from the opposing team. Plus, in the time out huddles he seems to be of verge of apoplexy. Being as agitated as he is, does not appear to help calm the Warriors - especially during runs by the opposition.

Anyway, the Warriors are just about "right there." Maybe some good luck will help.

*face palm*

[jesmu84]

Lots of good stuff here, both from Sugar and Sultan. Here are my two concerns:

1. If we're unlucky (partially) and don't have the roster yet (mostly) does that mean we should see improvement when we can combine a space-eater like Heldt or Harry with a mobile shot-blocker like John or Eke?

2. Is it a worry that Wojo hasn't identified this and adapted his defense to his personnel? Clearly what we're doing doesn't play to Luke's strengths, but with his offensive abilities, he's going to play 25+ mpg. If we don't want to go pack line or zone because we want to limit 3-point attempts, shouldn't there be a recognition of how we are getting decimated inside in these games and adjustments made?

This is a great question/point.  I believe, at this point, Wojo is teaching his "system" 95% of the time, even if he doesn't think he has the players/talent to do it. I'm assuming, he wants the young guys to spend their entire career in this and early development/understanding is more important than using a different system and winning now.

It appears to me, he doesn't want to "adjust" to his players' talents/abilities if those players aren't his own - ie. maximizing results based on available skills. He wants to put his system into place and get the players to succeed at that later.

Personally, I am 100% okay with that approach. Give his 100% recruited (from early high school)/signed players a year or 2 in the system and check on things. If he finally has "his" guys (and, again, I'm talking guys he's watched develop in high school, not guys he had to take a flyer on with only months/1 year of observation) at MU for a year or 2 and we don't see success/vast improvement... adios.

I am clearly on 1 end of the spectrum. Others on this board want results sooner, which is fine. Others would rather see Wojo change strategy to fit what he has now, which is fine. We're not all going to be okay with the approach Wojo takes.

[MarquetteDano]

88th in defense last year and currently ranked 139th per Pomeroy.  That is not bad luck.

The players on this team would never be a top 25 defense but I hold the coaching responsible for not having at least a top 75 defense given the personnel on this team.

Here are some teams who are better at defense (adjusted for strength of schedule) than Marquette this season:

• Rutgers
• Saint Peter's
• Evansville
• South Dakota
• North Carolina-Central
• Robert Morris

[RJax55]

I think the patience is the hardest part for most people here. As tower said the other day, you can see the blueprint and the road map Wojo is following, but to really see it take fruition, it will be 2-3 more years.

It is more than just patience Brew. It is faith as well. Faith that Wojo has the correct blueprint and the ability to execute it. And, while Wojo has a great pedigree, he has no track record of success.

I have patience and I want to believe in him, but this season has been taxing so far. We have squandered away excellent opportunities for big wins, with yesterday's game being the most egregious.

It is very easy to look to the future and declare bright days ahead. On paper, yes, there are a number of things to be excited about. But, nothing in the future is a given.

You seem to have that faith in Wojo, that's fine. But, you have to acknowledge that your patience to wait 2-3 years comes directly from that faith.

[MUDPT]

Thoughts on the offense from gasaway: https://johngasaway.com/2017/01/17/tuesday-truths-grayson-free-edition/

[mu03eng]

It is more than just patience Brew. It is faith as well. Faith that Wojo has the correct blueprint and the ability to execute it. And, while Wojo has a great pedigree, he has no track record of success.

I have patience and I want to believe in him, but this season has been taxing so far. We have squandered away excellent opportunities for big wins, with yesterday's game being the most egregious.

It is very easy to look to the future and declare bright days ahead. On paper, yes, there are a number of things to be excited about. But, nothing in the future is a given.

You seem to have that faith in Wojo, that's fine. But, you have to acknowledge that your patience to wait 2-3 years comes directly from that faith.

I get the emotional nature of the losses for the "taxing" nature of the season, but that is almost more a reflection of expectations than performance.

Sure you(royal you) can cherry pick individual stats to say things have gotten worse, but if you look at the numbers in combination, as this team has evolved from a style and talent standpoint the team has gotten demonstrably better each year and there is no reason to assume that progress doesn't continue. We couldn't get an 18 lead against a top 15 in the last two years let alone complain about losing it. This team has improved, even within this season, but sometimes its hard to see with the emotion of tough losses.

The evolution of this team from what/where it was with the great cowboy migration to where it is now is substantial. We are talking an entirely different approach to basketball/team development. The argument can be that MU made a mistake in embracing this change or they didn't understand it, but now that we're in it, we have to see it through.

Lastly there are definitely areas of concern from a coaching/adjustment standpoint with Wojo but that happens all the time with first year coaches. I'm sure if the internet existed when Izzo first started as an HC some would have been on their complain about his substitution pattern or end of game strategies. That stuff is learnable/correctable.

As weird as it sounds, I'm more confident now that this team can get an NCAA bid then at any point after the start of the season. I'm not saying that it's likely but this team will surprise in February and March IMO

[Litehouse]

It appears to me, he doesn't want to "adjust" to his players' talents/abilities if those players aren't his own - ie. maximizing results based on available skills. He wants to put his system into place and get the players to succeed at that later.

This is a nice, succinct explanation of our current situation.  Personally, I wish Wojo would make some adjustments to better suit his current personnel.  I think that's a trait of a good coach.  Wins are difficult to come by and so valuable when you're a potential bubble team like us.  NCAA appearances mean everything at this level, and I feel we should be doing anything we can to get in the tourney every year.  The added future value of sticking with his system seems minimal.  However,  Wojo is ultimately the one accountable for the results.

[Henry Sugar]

This is all 100% correct in my book. What we are seeing from a defensive strategy standpoint is a slight modification of what we will see once Wojo has the players he wants. Wojo wants to limit 3pt shots in exchange for giving up less efficient mid-range jumpers.

Good inputs from lots of folks here, especially Sultan and 03eng. Highlighting above indicates where the philosophy exists, but the breakdown is happening. I call the long jumper the MISIB (most inefficient shot in basketball). If you force guys inside, but can't limit them to the MISIB, then the 2 pt% goes sky high.

I don't think that the MU defense is completely without hope. 2 pt% defense against GU (42%), SHU (43%), and DPU (36%) shows that it can work.

2. Is it a worry that Wojo hasn't identified this and adapted his defense to his personnel? Clearly what we're doing doesn't play to Luke's strengths, but with his offensive abilities, he's going to play 25+ mpg. If we don't want to go pack line or zone because we want to limit 3-point attempts, shouldn't there be a recognition of how we are getting decimated inside in these games and adjustments made?

Yes. I think this is a definite concern.

[mu03eng]

This is a nice, succinct explanation of our current situation.  Personally, I wish Wojo would make some adjustments to better suit his current personnel.  I think that's a trait of a good coach.  Wins are difficult to come by and so valuable when you're a potential bubble team like us.  NCAA appearances mean everything at this level, and I feel we should be doing anything we can to get in the tourney every year.  The added future value of sticking with his system seems minimal.  However,  Wojo is ultimately the one accountable for the results.

I get what you are saying, but I'm not sure what tweaks or adjustments we can make for the combination of players we have on the current roster that would make things "better" this year.

I made the point in another thread that I don't think really sinks in for fans right now: The change in basketball philosophy from the Buzz/Crean era to the Wojo era is evolutionary. Wojo is redoing the entire approach for MU basketball and there are going to be growing pains with that which can't be managed around, especially with a 1st time HC.

I'm not saying Wojo is the next Wooden, I'm just saying that the approach to the game is completely different which requires different players/skill sets and we are in the midst of that transition.

Go back and watch the first half and some of the second half of the Butler game. The ball movement was terrific and the offense was a thing of beauty. The defense struggled mightly in the 2nd half but it is still correctable. Based on post-game comments I'd expect to see more Matt Heldt in games going forward.

[MarquetteDano]

I get what you are saying, but I'm not sure what tweaks or adjustments we can make for the combination of players we have on the current roster that would make things "better" this year.

I made the point in another thread that I don't think really sinks in for fans right now: The change in basketball philosophy from the Buzz/Crean era to the Wojo era is evolutionary. Wojo is redoing the entire approach for MU basketball and there are going to be growing pains with that which can't be managed around, especially with a 1st time HC.

I'm not saying Wojo is the next Wooden, I'm just saying that the approach to the game is completely different which requires different players/skill sets and we are in the midst of that transition.

Go back and watch the first half and some of the second half of the Butler game. The ball movement was terrific and the offense was a thing of beauty. The defense struggled mightly in the 2nd half but it is still correctable. Based on post-game comments I'd expect to see more Matt Heldt in games going forward.

I just can't agree with this.  I understand that he is trying to implement a defensive philosophy that does not 100% match his current players but there is no reason these players, with their talent,  could not be a top 75 defense.  That is really not that much to ask.

A good defensive coach should be able to make slight tweaks to his defense to match the players skills/strengths and at least be a okay defense.  We are a poor defense.  Look at the lesser talented teams that play better defense than us.

[Henry Sugar]

I just can't agree with this.  I understand that he is trying to implement a defensive philosophy that does 100% match his current players but there is no reason these players, with their talent,  could not be a top 75 defense.  That is really not that much to ask.

A good defensive coach should be able to make slight tweaks to his defense to match the players skills/strengths and at least be a okay defense.  We are a poor defense.  Look at the lesser talented teams that play better defense than us.

Season ain't done yet. Yes, the defense was a dumpster fire vs Nova and BU, but MU has held half of their BE opponents under 1.00 ppp.

[brewcity77]

88th in defense last year and currently ranked 139th per Pomeroy.  That is not bad luck.

The players on this team would never be a top 25 defense but I hold the coaching responsible for not having at least a top 75 defense given the personnel on this team.

Here are some teams who are better at defense (adjusted for strength of schedule) than Marquette this season:

• Rutgers
• Saint Peter's
• Evansville
• South Dakota
• North Carolina-Central
• Robert Morris

Come on, that's just silly. Yes, they have better defensive rankings, but they are all woefully sub-par on offense and I have little doubt we would blow any of those teams out by double-digits on a neutral court. That's just cherry picking. There's no point whatsoever to that list.

It is more than just patience Brew. It is faith as well. Faith that Wojo has the correct blueprint and the ability to execute it. And, while Wojo has a great pedigree, he has no track record of success.

I have patience and I want to believe in him, but this season has been taxing so far. We have squandered away excellent opportunities for big wins, with yesterday's game being the most egregious.

It is very easy to look to the future and declare bright days ahead. On paper, yes, there are a number of things to be excited about. But, nothing in the future is a given.

You seem to have that faith in Wojo, that's fine. But, you have to acknowledge that your patience to wait 2-3 years comes directly from that faith.

It does take faith. I'll be honest, while I'm usually a cock-eyed optimist, the team is about on the track I would have expected. 2015 was always going to suck with a roster bereft of talent. Last year Henry helped will us to more wins than we probably should've earned, but we weren't "there" yet. Still, 8-10 in league was pretty encouraging in year 2. This year, I expected to be a bubble team. I always hope for more, but the reality is we just had too many holes.

Looking ahead, I think next year will be similar to this one, though I'm hoping experience and length leads to somewhat better results. It's 2018-19 with the opening of the new arena that I'm really excited about. That's the year I can see us competing for the top of the Big East and having the shot at a deep NCAA run. That blueprint, that road map is what has me continuing to believe and willing to overlook the bumps in the road.

Now that said, I felt the same way once upon a time about 2014. I saw a potential roster with Vander, Davante, and Jamil as senior leaders, roleplayers that could contribute in Mayo, Juan, and Jake, and promising freshmen in Deonte, Jajuan, and Duane as a roster that could compete for a Final Four. Instead, Vander went pro, Gardner and Jamil weren't leaders, and the freshmen weren't ready. That season went from "What If?" to "What The F?" in a hurry. And like that, Buzz was gone.

We'll see how it goes with Wojo, but I expect more bumps in the road between now and November 2018. That will be year 5, which was always Chicos' mythical "you can't judge a coach until..." point. When I was younger, I wanted more and I wanted it now, but at this point, I'm willing to wait. I'm young enough to know I still should have years left for the program to be built, but old enough to understand that things worth having are also worth waiting for. Hopefully as the roster grows into what I hope it becomes, Wojo also grows as a coach. It took Jay Wright 4 years to make the NCAA Tournament at Villanova, and I'd say that turned out pretty well. I'm willing to be patient with the guy we hope becomes our Jay Wright, especially when I see the quality young players he has already brought in and the potential they have.

[MarquetteDano]

Come on, that's just silly. Yes, they have better defensive rankings, but they are all woefully sub-par on offense and I have little doubt we would blow any of those teams out by double-digits on a neutral court. That's just cherry picking. There's no point whatsoever to that list.

This thread is about defense not offense.  I don't disagree we are an excellent offense.  I don't disagree we are better than those teams.  My point is considerably lesser talented teams are finding a way to play better defense than us.  That is not cherry picking.  As of right now,  those are better defensive teams.

[mu03eng]

I just can't agree with this.  I understand that he is trying to implement a defensive philosophy that does not 100% match his current players but there is no reason these players, with their talent,  could not be a top 75 defense.  That is really not that much to ask.

A good defensive coach should be able to make slight tweaks to his defense to match the players skills/strengths and at least be a okay defense.  We are a poor defense.  Look at the lesser talented teams that play better defense than us.

40% of the minutes on this team are going to players that have never worn an MU uniform before this season, 25% to players that are a different "skill set" on defense from the others. Let's see what the defense can do on balance for the rest of the season.

Even the Butler game in the 2nd half there were some "lucky" shots they hit that if they miss MU is within 1 at the 1 minute make and that ending is a lot more interesting (Specifically thinking of a couple of banked MISIBs)

Also, do you think the Butler board was freaking out about Holtzman's inability to coach defense when MU had a 1.68ppp in the first half?