Another Perspective on Luke

[Jay Bee]

Some of the commentary on Luke is bizarre. The fact is he'll be missed next year and he's extremely valuable to this year's team.

There are 24 D-I players who are "regulars" (defined in this post as having played at least 50% of their team's minutes) with a usage of > 20% and an ORtg of 125 or better. Luke is one of them.

His DR% isn't good for his size and position (13.3%), but it is a career high. His OR%, conversely, is top 25 in the nation. The guy is shooting 63.2% FG (also eFG% - doesn't attempt 3's) -- good for top 50 in the nation, and he's shooting a strong 59.4% against adjusted-top-100 opponents. His turnover rate has dropped to a career low 14.2%.

The criticisms most have of him are ones that have existed for years -- nothing to be overly alarmed about as though some new issues have arisen.

A list of the 24 is below. He's in good company.

Lauri Markkanen   Arizona
Vladimir Brodziansky   TCU
Luke Kennard   Duke
TJ Leaf   UCLA
Eric Garcia   Wofford
Dexter Werner   North Dakota St.
Josh Hart   Villanova
Malik Monk   Kentucky
Egor Koulechov   Rice
Frank Mason III   Kansas
Moritz Wagner   Michigan
Joel Berry II   North Carolina
James Blackmon Jr.   Indiana
Chris Boucher   Oregon
Isaiah Johnson   Akron
Jeffrey Carroll   Oklahoma St.
Justin Tuoyo   Chattanooga
Monte Morris   Iowa St.
Lucas Woodhouse   Stony Brook
Peyton Aldridge   Davidson
Matt O'Leary   IUPUI
Markus Howard   Marquette
Justin Jackson   North Carolina
Luke Fischer   Marquette

[bilsu]

Peolple always look at scoring and he is not scoring much lately. However, I think the offense has rotated away from jamming the ball into Fischer and looking more for the shooters. That I think is a good idea. I never liked Fischer having a few fouls trying to back down the opposing center starting five feet from the basket to take a hook shot. I think the Wisconsin game was the turning point. In that game Gard had his players double Fischer whenever he got the ball and would ntry to steal if from him when he put the ball on the floor. Every future opponent would see that in their scouting and I will give Wojo credit for for going to a different offense to prevent the double team. Fischer has never been a great rebounder.

[GGGG]

I said it elsewhere, but if I were an opposing coach at this point, I would make Luke beat you.  Don't double.  They are moving the ball too well right now.

[Let's Go Warriors]

Some of the commentary on Luke is bizarre. The fact is he'll be missed next year and he's extremely valuable to this year's team.

There are 24 D-I players who are "regulars" (defined in this post as having played at least 50% of their team's minutes) with a usage of > 20% and an ORtg of 125 or better. Luke is one of them.

His DR% isn't good for his size and position (13.3%), but it is a career high. His OR%, conversely, is top 25 in the nation. The guy is shooting 63.2% FG (also eFG% - doesn't attempt 3's) -- good for top 50 in the nation, and he's shooting a strong 59.4% against adjusted-top-100 opponents. His turnover rate has dropped to a career low 14.2%.

The criticisms most have of him are ones that have existed for years -- nothing to be overly alarmed about as though some new issues have arisen.

A list of the 24 is below. He's in good company.

Lauri Markkanen   Arizona
Vladimir Brodziansky   TCU
Luke Kennard   Duke
TJ Leaf   UCLA
Eric Garcia   Wofford
Dexter Werner   North Dakota St.
Josh Hart   Villanova
Malik Monk   Kentucky
Egor Koulechov   Rice
Frank Mason III   Kansas
Moritz Wagner   Michigan
Joel Berry II   North Carolina
James Blackmon Jr.   Indiana
Chris Boucher   Oregon
Isaiah Johnson   Akron
Jeffrey Carroll   Oklahoma St.
Justin Tuoyo   Chattanooga
Monte Morris   Iowa St.
Lucas Woodhouse   Stony Brook
Peyton Aldridge   Davidson
Matt O'Leary   IUPUI
Markus Howard   Marquette
Justin Jackson   North Carolina
Luke Fischer   Marquette

Church!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Jay Bee, I agree with your general premises, I think Luke gets ragged on way too much. But how did you get Luke's usage numbers? I have him at 13% usage. 

[Stretchdeltsig]

I said it elsewhere, but if I were an opposing coach at this point, I would make Luke beat you.  Don't double.  They are moving the ball too well right now.

True.  It is disappointing that Luke's offensive game as regressed this year.  It seems that he does the hook shot or dunk and misses too many.  His moves are limited.  What is most troublesome is his poor defense and minimal rebounding.  He doesn't seem to know how to defend without fouling. 

[fjm]

My only one bummer moment on Luke this season so far was the missed layup/dunk vs seton hall. But then again cheatham did the same thing 15 seconds later.

Luke is an asset but we have soooo many good shooters right now that Luke will have some 2pt games.

Then when no one can hit a 3, hopefully Luke will have about 12 points.

[Jay Bee]

Jay Bee, I agree with your general premises, I think Luke gets ragged on way too much. But how did you get Luke's usage numbers? I have him at 13% usage.

Dean Oliver method via spreadsheets. Should be the same as what KenPom uses as well (20.9%).

True.  It is disappointing that Luke's offensive game as regressed this year.  It seems that he does the hook shot or dunk and misses too many.

The problem with these comments is that they don't match up with the facts

[Let's Go Warriors]

True.  It is disappointing that Luke's offensive game as regressed this year.  It seems that he does the hook shot or dunk and misses too many.  His moves are limited.  What is most troublesome is his poor defense and minimal rebounding.  He doesn't seem to know how to defend without fouling.

Most of Lukes fouls are initiated by poor defense on the wings.

[#UnleashSean]

Most of Lukes fouls are initiated by poor defense on the wings.

Most of Luke's fouls are initiated by him making incredibly dumb contact while HE is on the wing.

[GGGG]

True.  It is disappointing that Luke's offensive game as regressed this year.  It seems that he does the hook shot or dunk and misses too many.  His moves are limited.  What is most troublesome is his poor defense and minimal rebounding.  He doesn't seem to know how to defend without fouling. 

His game has not regressed.  He is shooting better, rebounding better and turning over the ball less.  His OR is by far the highest of his career.

He is fouling more, even on a per possession basis but his defense is pretty much what it has been.

[GGGG]

Most of Lukes fouls are initiated by poor defense on the wings.

Yes.  Penetration into the lane.

Most of Luke's fouls are initiated by him making incredibly dumb contact while HE is on the wing.

I don't think that's the case at all.

[Let's Go Warriors]

Yes.  Penetration into the lane.


I don't think that's the case at all.

agreed. We notice those more but they are not the majority.

[brewcity77]

Most of Luke's fouls are initiated by him making incredibly dumb contact while HE is on the wing.

HE hasn't been on the wing since last year.

[We R Final Four]

Most of Lukes fouls are initiated by poor defense on the wings.

I don't know if it's MOST, but Luke coming over from the weak side after JJJ doesn't box out has certainly put Luke in a bad spot.

[forgetful]

Yes.  Penetration into the lane.

But based on how we handle ball screens, the penetration into the lane often happens because Luke is out of position and not maintaining his proper role in either hedging or ICE'ing.

His fouls often come because he has slow feet out at the perimeter and is out of position in his ball screen defense.  You can't blame the wings for this...it is either on Luke, or Wojo (for not adjusting to Luke's weaknesses).

This whole thread starts from an offensive perspective on Luke.  Like Gardner, no-one discredits Luke's offensive skills.  It is his defense that is bad.  Luke's DRtg is 114.4.  That is as bad as his ORtg is good.

The problem for MU is that we have plenty of offense, we need the defensive stopper down low.  That's just not the player Luke is, he's a talented player, just not a defensive stopper.

[avid1010]

I ripped Luke for not getting a defensive rebound in two games.  No excuse for that.  Wojo benched him, and others with strong bball understanding also spoke of the issues.  Some on this board feel he is great at boxing out and allowing for others to get rebounds...I find that ridiculous.

I don't think MU can plan to run their offense through Luke because you can't count on him to be in the game.

I certainly believe he is our best big, a nice kid, and hard worker.  He will be missed next year.  In a world where quality bigs are hard to find, he was a good get.  I like what heldt gives us as well, and I like the size of our future recruits, but  I'm sure we will miss Fischer next year.

[BallBoy]

My bias always goes to versatility and how a player can score versus just straight scoring. Luke isn't a very versatile player. He is a back to the basket or receiver of a dish for a dunk.  His offensive rating show that high shooting % as he is close to the basket.

It would have be great if he would have developed a 10 foot jumper as that helps keep the lane clear for wings.

I think we can all agree that Luke is not the most athletic big which is fine but that limits his upside. Luke would be a great 6, 7, 8th guy but he is in the 2-4 range on this team.  He will be missed next year if we don't get a more versatile player.  I called this my Brian Wardle Theory. No matter how many points they score, if your best player wouldn't start for other team then your team isn't that good.  I think this is also visible with Duane. Duane was a Top 3 player for us last year but know he is 6 or 7th.  As a team, we got better so Duane, as an individual, plays and scores less. We haven't gotten a better player than Luke yet but that doesn't mean he would play at Butler, Creighton, Nova and Xavier so MU's ceiling is limited.

Heldt and Luke are like the exact opposite. Matt is quicker footed but lacks the upper body control. Luke has good upper body but lacks foot speed. Luke is good at offense while Heldt is good on Defense.

[Nukem2]

My bias always goes to versatility and how a player can score versus just straight scoring. Luke isn't a very versatile player. He is a back to the basket or receiver of a dish for a dunk.  His offensive rating show that high shooting % as he is close to the basket.

It would have be great if he would have developed a 10 foot jumper as that helps keep the lane clear for wings.

I think we can all agree that Luke is not the most athletic big which is fine but that limits his upside. Luke would be a great 6, 7, 8th guy but he is in the 2-4 range on this team.  He will be missed next year if we don't get a more versatile player.  I called this my Brian Wardle Theory. No matter how many points they score, if your best player wouldn't start for other team then your team isn't that good.  I think this is also visible with Duane. Duane was a Top 3 player for us last year but know he is 6 or 7th.  As a team, we got better so Duane, as an individual, plays and scores less. We haven't gotten a better player than Luke yet but that doesn't mean he would play at Butler, Creighton, Nova and Xavier so MU's ceiling is limited.

Heldt and Luke are like the exact opposite. Matt is quicker footed but lacks the upper body control. Luke has good upper body but lacks foot speed. Luke is good at offense while Heldt is good on Defense.

actually, Luke has good foot speed as he runs the court well.  What he lacks is lateral quickness.

[Loose Cannon]

actually, Luke has good foot speed as he runs the court well.  What he lacks is lateral quickness.

Matt has a lot more Stoutness than Luke and that is one of the reason his minutes are Increasing.

[BallBoy]

actually, Luke has good foot speed as he runs the court well.  What he lacks is lateral quickness.

You are correct, he does not have lateral quickness but he also doesn't have a quick movements in general. You can see that as he tries to recover back to his assignment. Also I can't say he runs the court well. When was the last time he was on a fast break or got back on defense to stop it. Getting back on defense isn't running the floor well.

Compare that to Matt, Matt is not a world record holder but he has much better speed.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

But based on how we handle ball screens, the penetration into the lane often happens because Luke is out of position and not maintaining his proper role in either hedging or ICE'ing.

His fouls often come because he has slow feet out at the perimeter and is out of position in his ball screen defense.  You can't blame the wings for this...it is either on Luke, or Wojo (for not adjusting to Luke's weaknesses).

This whole thread starts from an offensive perspective on Luke.  Like Gardner, no-one discredits Luke's offensive skills.  It is his defense that is bad.  Luke's DRtg is 114.4.  That is as bad as his ORtg is good.

The problem for MU is that we have plenty of offense, we need the defensive stopper down low.  That's just not the player Luke is, he's a talented player, just not a defensive stopper.

Agree with this his offense might be better, but my issue is he is easy to defend by other good bigs as his offensive game has never developed he has never expanded his game.  His drop step against seton hall is the only one i have ever seen.  He posts 16 feet from the basket.  Not one up and under since hes been here.  And he does not rebound at the level of his matchup in the BiG east. 
On the defensive end he is extremely slow and seems to get mental taken out of games.  He has been a below par 5 in The BiG East. 
Im sure hes a great kid off the the court just not a basketball player thats gonna win his matchup in the Big East.

[forgetful]

actually, Luke has good foot speed as he runs the court well.  What he lacks is lateral quickness.

Runs the floor well is speed.  Foot speed is quickness, typically of the lateral variety. 

He's fine with speed, poor with quickness.

[MU82]

I said it elsewhere, but if I were an opposing coach at this point, I would make Luke beat you.  Don't double.  They are moving the ball too well right now.

Agree 100% - and I think Luke is a good player.

I would rather take my chances with Luke backing in and making a hook. If it goes in, it's only 2 points. And whether it goes in or not, it slows down the pace of our offense.

DePaul, showing how poorly coached they are, did the opposite of what you and I advocate and it cost them dearly.

If I'm coaching against MU, I defend Luke straight-up and I never leave either Hauser or Howard open on the perimeter. Easier said than done, perhaps, but Wisconsin showed how relatively easy it is to take Hauser out of the game as an offensive weapon.

[PGsHeroes32]

My bias always goes to versatility and how a player can score versus just straight scoring. Luke isn't a very versatile player. He is a back to the basket or receiver of a dish for a dunk.  His offensive rating show that high shooting % as he is close to the basket.

It would have be great if he would have developed a 10 foot jumper as that helps keep the lane clear for wings.

I think we can all agree that Luke is not the most athletic big which is fine but that limits his upside. Luke would be a great 6, 7, 8th guy but he is in the 2-4 range on this team.  He will be missed next year if we don't get a more versatile player.  I called this my Brian Wardle Theory. No matter how many points they score, if your best player wouldn't start for other team then your team isn't that good.  I think this is also visible with Duane. Duane was a Top 3 player for us last year but know he is 6 or 7th.  As a team, we got better so Duane, as an individual, plays and scores less. We haven't gotten a better player than Luke yet but that doesn't mean he would play at Butler, Creighton, Nova and Xavier so MU's ceiling is limited.

Heldt and Luke are like the exact opposite. Matt is quicker footed but lacks the upper body control. Luke has good upper body but lacks foot speed. Luke is good at offense while Heldt is good on Defense.

Luke would get major minutes on all those teams. Probably starts for everyone except Creighton.