KenPom Today

[The Lens]

We did so well vs DePaul that KenPom moved us back to 10-8 in conf. 

I believe the change was the Xavier game in MKE, now a win.

It's one thing to beat DePaul, it's another to do so as efficiently & convincingly as we did. 

[MUBigDance]

I think that's right. We beat X here.

[brewcity77]

The Pomeroy model isn't based on individual results but rather the aggregate percentage over the course of the season. I believe before DePaul, we were at 7.49 projected wins. With DePaul as 93%, almost any win would have pushed us over the threshold to get us to the 6.51 that would now approximate us at 10 total wins.

[real chili 83]

I think that's right. We beat X here.

Of course we will. I will be at that game.

[Newsdreams]

Of course we will. I will be at that game.

Yo, we'll be at the game!

[NCMUFan]

Does MU match up well with Xavier?

[PGsHeroes32]

Does MU match up well with Xavier?

X doesn't have much a low post game so in that regard yes.

Their guards will have size and strength on ours but they are absolutely beatable especially at home

[brandx]

X doesn't have much a low post game so in that regard yes.

Their guards will have size and strength on ours but they are absolutely beatable especially at home

Their strength is being overlooked here. They will be very hard to beat - especially at home.

Agreed. They have lost 4 games - 2 were to teams that have been ranked #1 this year when they were without their best 3-point shooter. Another was at Butler. I think they match up very well with us.

[brewcity77]

We'll see how Xavier plays without Davis, but they are definitely a team we can exploit. Their 2PFG% defense is terrible and their bigs are not near as good as last year. Pour the ball in to Luke and let him go to work, then when they come with the double, work it back outside and rain threes. Their bigs also like to foul, so I'd give it to Luke early and often. Make them stop him.

They don't take a ton of threes and aren't very good at making them, so the more we can pressure them with made threes the more we can dictate the flow of the game. XU is tough at home, and I doubt we'll win there, but we should have a hell of a crowd for the home game and I think they are very beatable. Let's not forget, we had them on the ropes for most of the game at Cintas last year before they pulled away late. We play them with a better squad this year and they have definitely taken a step back.

I'm expecting to split with them.

[real chili 83]

We'll see how Xavier plays without Davis, but they are definitely a team we can exploit. Their 2PFG% defense is terrible and their bigs are not near as good as last year. Pour the ball in to Luke and let him go to work, then when they come with the double, work it back outside and rain threes. Their bigs also like to foul, so I'd give it to Luke early and often. Make them stop him.

They don't take a ton of threes and aren't very good at making them, so the more we can pressure them with made threes the more we can dictate the flow of the game. XU is tough at home, and I doubt we'll win there, but we should have a hell of a crowd for the home game and I think they are very beatable. Let's not forget, we had them on the ropes for most of the game at Cintas last year before they pulled away late. We play them with a better squad this year and they have definitely taken a step back.

I'm expecting to split with them.

I am expecting to beat them.  Twice.

[brandx]

We'll see how Xavier plays without Davis, but they are definitely a team we can exploit. Their 2PFG% defense is terrible and their bigs are not near as good as last year. Pour the ball in to Luke and let him go to work, then when they come with the double, work it back outside and rain threes. Their bigs also like to foul, so I'd give it to Luke early and often. Make them stop him.

They don't take a ton of threes and aren't very good at making them, so the more we can pressure them with made threes the more we can dictate the flow of the game. XU is tough at home, and I doubt we'll win there, but we should have a hell of a crowd for the home game and I think they are very beatable. Let's not forget, we had them on the ropes for most of the game at Cintas last year before they pulled away late. We play them with a better squad this year and they have definitely taken a step back.

I'm expecting to split with them.

Davis has been back the last couple games.

[brewcity77]

Davis has been back the last couple games.

That's an odd autocorrect...should've said with.

[GoldenDieners32]

Based on ESPN bracketology which was updated today, Joe Lunardi has MU as a last 4 out team along with Rhode Island, Georgia, and Kansas State. Last 4 in were Michigan, Seton hall, texas tech and Wichita State

[bilsu]

Based on ESPN bracketology which was updated today, Joe Lunardi has MU as a last 4 out team along with Rhode Island, Georgia, and Kansas State. Last 4 in were Michigan, Seton hall, texas tech and Wichita State

I will be very surprised, if Seton Hall makes the tournament. They are great at rebounding, but not very good otherwise.

[SaveOD238]

Based on ESPN bracketology which was updated today, Joe Lunardi has MU as a last 4 out team along with Rhode Island, Georgia, and Kansas State. Last 4 in were Michigan, Seton hall, texas tech and Wichita State

And to think, we lost to two of those teams.  We just need ONE win over a team "better than us" and I feel like we'd be in really good shape.  Maybe knocking off a top ten team at their house on Saturday would do the trick.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I will be very surprised, if Seton Hall makes the tournament. They are great at rebounding, but not very good otherwise.

Get ready to be surprised.  Barring a great run from Providence, the 5th and 6th spots are pretty much MU and SHU's for the taking.  Big East is getting at last 5 teams in, and wouldn't be surprised if it is 6.

And to think, we lost to two of those teams.  We just need ONE win over a team "better than us" and I feel like we'd be in really good shape.  Maybe knocking off a top ten team at their house on Saturday would do the trick.

Pittsburgh is also in the "last 4 byes" category.   

[LAZER]

Get ready to be surprised.  Barring a great run from Providence, the 5th and 6th spots are pretty much MU and SHU's for the taking.  Big East is getting at last 5 teams in, and wouldn't be surprised if it is 6.

Pittsburgh is also in the "last 4 byes" category.

I wouldn't just assume the BE gets in 5 or 6. MU or SH could easily be in the 5th spot with a 9-9 record and few quality wins.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I wouldn't just assume the BE gets in 5 or 6. MU or SH could easily be in the 5th spot with a 9-9 record and few quality wins.

SHU probably gets in at 9-9.  They had a better non-con than MU.  MU needs 10, or 9 and a trip to BET final.

I suppose its possible that MU goes 9-9, SHU goes 8-10.  Maybe PC goes 9-9, GT gets hot and gets to 7 or 8 wins, and all miss out.  But I think that is pretty unlikely. 

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't just assume the BE gets in 5 or 6. MU or SH could easily be in the 5th spot with a 9-9 record and few quality wins.

The Big East could easily get 6 in if Marquette and SHU are sitting at 11-7 and 10-8, respectively. Would be almost impossible to keep them out. However, fewer than that and they'll be on the bubble, and if it's MU at 9-9 and SHU at 8-10 (which is what Pomeroy currently projects) the Big East might only get 4 bids. Those top-4 may be locks, but after that, no one is assured anything.

[LAZER]

The Big East could easily get 6 in if Marquette and SHU are sitting at 11-7 and 10-8, respectively. Would be almost impossible to keep them out. However, fewer than that and they'll be on the bubble, and if it's MU at 9-9 and SHU at 8-10 (which is what Pomeroy currently projects) the Big East might only get 4 bids. Those top-4 may be locks, but after that, no one is assured anything.

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the BE with only 4 bids, especially the way MU & SHU are trending.

[wadesworld]

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the BE with only 4 bids, especially the way MU & SHU are trending.

Which way are we trending? Home wins over Georgetown, DePaul, and Seton Hall and road losses to Villanova, Seton Hall, and Butler are exactly what we were expected to do. We're shooting par so far.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Which way are we trending? Home wins over Georgetown, DePaul, and Seton Hall and road losses to Villanova, Seton Hall, and Butler are exactly what we were expected to do. We're shooting par so far.

This. So long as MU takes care of business at home (8-1 record) and wins @ Depaul and one other road game out of @SJU, @ Georgetown, @ Providence, we're going to be in pretty decent shape going into selection sunday.

[🏀]

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the BE with only 4 bids, especially the way MU & SHU are trending.

Have you looked at other conferences? If that's your look at the way things are 'trending', the B10 is only sending 4 teams, Northwestern being one.

CRAZY

[LAZER]

Which way are we trending? Home wins over Georgetown, DePaul, and Seton Hall and road losses to Villanova, Seton Hall, and Butler are exactly what we were expected to do. We're shooting par so far.

I'd say MU is trending towards a 9-9 conference record, with not much going for them in OOC too.

[LAZER]

Have you looked at other conferences? If that's your look at the way things are 'trending', the B10 is only sending 4 teams, Northwestern being one.

CRAZY

I admit I haven't gone through each conference and their respective bubble teams to add up the at larges, but moreso just going off of resumes in years past. From what I can see the B10 has 8 teams in right now, so I think they'll for sure get more than 4.

[LAZER]

This. So long as MU takes care of business at home (8-1 record) and wins @ Depaul and one other road game out of @SJU, @ Georgetown, @ Providence, we're going to be in pretty decent shape going into selection sunday.

I'm not sure this team is capable of that, but I agree they would be in really good shape in this scenario.

[🏀]

I admit I haven't gone through each conference and their respective bubble teams to add up the at larges, but moreso just going off of resumes in years past. From what I can see the B10 has 8 teams in right now, so I think they'll for sure get more than 4.

Top 5 in the Big East are better than the Top 5 in the B10.

So if B10 is sending 8 and the BE is only sending 4, Marquette (5th best BE team) would have been the worst snub in history.

[LAZER]

Top 5 in the Big East are better than the Top 5 in the B10.

So if B10 is sending 8 and the BE is only sending 4, Marquette (5th best BE team) would have been the worst snub in history.

I never said the B10 would for sure send 8. I said right now they look to have 8, BE w/ 5 (SHU not MU). While the B10 probably won't get 8 in, they will definitely get more than 4.

Ultimately my point is that the BE getting only 4 teams in, is a very real possibility.

[BM1090]

I never said the B10 would for sure send 8. I said right now they look to have 8, BE w/ 5 (SHU not MU). While the B10 probably won't get 8 in, they will definitely get more than 4.

Ultimately my point is that the BE getting only 4 teams in, is a very real possibility.

Real? Sure. But probably more likely 6 than 4, with 5 remaining the highest probability.

[fjm]

Real? Sure. But probably more likely 6 than 4, with 5 remaining the highest probability.

Only 4 getting in could happen.

I watched loads of the games yesterday and yes we choked against Butler. But honestly 5th place is there if this team wants it.

But also so is 7th if we blow every lead ever.

[HoopsterBC]

Only 4 getting in could happen.

I watched loads of the games yesterday and yes we choked against Butler. But honestly 5th place is there if this team wants it.

But also so is 7th if we blow every lead ever.

Have to beat Providence for sure,  Hall going nowhere or GT.   St.  Johns if MU plays smart can beat them twice, but will not be easy.  Bunch of chuckers on that team,
so if they get hot, they could beat MU.

[LAZER]

Real? Sure. But probably more likely 6 than 4, with 5 remaining the highest probability.

You think 6 is more likely than 4?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You think 6 is more likely than 4?

I do.

Something like:

4 - 5%
5 - 80%
6 - 15%

Getting 4 in would require teams like Georgetown to turn their season around enough to beat up on everyone but the top.  PC to get to 9 wins.  SHU to only win 6 more conference games when they still have SJU twice, @ Depaul and Providence left.  If the cookie crumbled perfectly, 4 is possible, but its unlikely IMO.

[brewcity77]

On paper, assuming the Vegas line corresponds with Pomeroy (usually within a point or two) then Seton Hall would only be favored in 5 of their remaining games. St. John's twice, Providence at home, DePaul on the road, Georgetown at home. Losing at the Dunk really hurt them. To their credit, 7 of their remaining 12 are at home, so they will have the chance to make home court pay off, but after SJU on Sunday, they really need to get going.

At this point, I'd break it down like this:

5: 60%
4: 30%
6: 10%

For Marquette and Seton Hall to both get in will require both of them to get hot. I'm just not convinced both teams will do that. Creighton will also be interesting. How much will they fall off without Watson. I think at worst they go 10-8 in conference, but if they're 9-9 and in a freefall since he went out of the lineup, might that cost them a bid? They've probably done enough already to be a lock, but it's early enough that a precipitous fall could hurt Creighton's chances (though hard to believe one of Marquette or Seton Hall wouldn't capitalize on that.

[LAZER]

I do.

Something like:

4 - 5%
5 - 80%
6 - 15%

Getting 4 in would require teams like Georgetown to turn their season around enough to beat up on everyone but the top.  PC to get to 9 wins.  SHU to only win 6 more conference games when they still have SJU twice, @ Depaul and Providence left.  If the cookie crumbled perfectly, 4 is possible, but its unlikely IMO.

Why would PC need to get 9 wins?

If PC, Georgetown, and St John's (and DePaul I guess) win some games against MU and SHU, they could force 9-9 and 8-10 respectively. Which would lead to an interesting selection Sunday.

[brewcity77]

Why would PC need to get 9 wins?

If PC, Georgetown, and St John's (and DePaul I guess) win some games against MU and SHU, they could force 9-9 and 8-10 respectively. Which would lead to an interesting selection Sunday.

9-9 and 8-10 would only be interesting if you're waiting for the NIT Selection Show. Neither MU nor SHU would be dancing.

[muguru]

I'm not sold on Xavier at all...calling them a "lock" at this point?? I'm not convinced..they very well could finish below .500 in the BE.

[LAZER]

I'm not sold on Xavier at all...calling them a "lock" at this point?? I'm not convinced..they very well could finish below .500 in the BE.

I see the concerns with Xavier, but under .500? Not sure I'd go that far

[muguru]

You're right that may be a stretch, but i'm not convinced they will finish 4th..in fact, I could see MU beating them twice and ultimately finishing ahead of them, wherever that may be in the standings.

[ecompt]

You're right that may be a stretch, but i'm not convinced they will finish 4th..in fact, I could see MU beating them twice and ultimately finishing ahead of them, wherever that may be in the standings.

We don't match up well with Xavier at all. Big, muscular guards, Beating them in Cincy will be near impossible, and at home is no picnic either.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

9-9 and 8-10 would only be interesting if you're waiting for the NIT Selection Show. Neither MU nor SHU would be dancing.

I bet SHU is one of final teams in if they go 9-9. They had a pretty decent non conference. Wins over South Carolina, @ Iowa and Cal (N). Losses to Florida (in Fl) and Stanford (n). All conference losses on the road. They definitely have a chance if they go 9-9, and frankly, aren't in that bad of shape. A 3 game losing streak looks rough, but they've already played 4 road games included @ Nova and @ Creighton. I think they're actually in fine shape, even though their loss @ Nova was UGLY.

[brewcity77]

I bet SHU is one of final teams in if they go 9-9. They had a pretty decent non conference. Wins over South Carolina, @ Iowa and Cal (N). Losses to Florida (in Fl) and Stanford (n). All conference losses on the road. They definitely have a chance if they go 9-9, and frankly, aren't in that bad of shape. A 3 game losing streak looks rough, but they've already played 4 road games included @ Nova and @ Creighton. I think they're actually in fine shape, even though their loss @ Nova was UGLY.

I think they slip in at 9-9, but LAZER's respectively specifically referenced SHU going 8-10. I don't think they get in at 8-10. I think us at 9-9 and them at 8-10 would lead to two Big East teams being highly seeded in the NIT.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Why would PC need to get 9 wins?

If PC, Georgetown, and St John's (and DePaul I guess) win some games against MU and SHU, they could force 9-9 and 8-10 respectively. Which would lead to an interesting selection Sunday.

Cause for things to get bunched up around .500 someone has to win the games. I tend to think Depaul won't win more than 1 more game and SJU will struggle to double their current BE win total. PC doesn't need to win 9 games, but for MU and SHU to lose enough games to finish .500 or under, someone's gonna pick the the slack for the 5th slot.

As for the Mo Watson-less Creighton, they're in great shape. They could go 4-8 and still get in, and I highly doubt that happens.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think they slip in at 9-9, but LAZER's respectively specifically referenced SHU going 8-10. I don't think they get in at 8-10. I think us at 9-9 and them at 8-10 would lead to two Big East teams being highly seeded in the NIT.

.

Agreed there. Your post could be read either way, but see what you were meaning to say. We're on the same page. 

[brewcity77]

Cause for things to get bunched up around .500 someone has to win the games. I tend to think Depaul won't win more than 1 more game and SJU will struggle to double their current BE win total. PC doesn't need to win 9 games, but for MU and SHU to lose enough games to finish .500 or under, someone's gonna pick the the slack for the 5th slot.

As for the Mo Watson-less Creighton, they're in great shape. They could go 4-8 and still get in, and I highly doubt that happens.

They certainly would be interesting if they did. I doubt that happens either, but if the NCAA is going to seed them based on being without Watson and their only full game wins without him are St. John's, Providence, and DePaul twice, would that warrant inclusion?

Certainly they are a tourney team, and a high-seeded one with him, but Marquette dropped from probably a 2-seed with James to a 6 without him. What if we had lost James a month earlier? Are we still a tourney team? That might be what Creighton goes through.

Now I agree that they likely won't go 4-8, but if they do, they will be a very, very interesting team come Selection Sunday.

[SaveOD238]

They certainly would be interesting if they did. I doubt that happens either, but if the NCAA is going to seed them based on being without Watson and their only full game wins without him are St. John's, Providence, and DePaul twice, would that warrant inclusion?

Certainly they are a tourney team, and a high-seeded one with him, but Marquette dropped from probably a 2-seed with James to a 6 without him. What if we had lost James a month earlier? Are we still a tourney team? That might be what Creighton goes through.

Now I agree that they likely won't go 4-8, but if they do, they will be a very, very interesting team come Selection Sunday.

This is exactly what I thought of when I heard about Watson's injury.  Top ten team, lots of potential, this is "the" year only to lose your senior leader at PG.  We absolutely tanked after DJ went out (was Utah St the only win without him?) and it would be sad to see the same happen to Creighton.  They won't be a top two seed in March, but they have more time to turn things around and prove they can succeed without Watson.  We didn't really have that chance with the end of season schedule after James' injury.

That said, I wouldn't be terribly upset if Creighton struggled emotionally and basketball-ly in their first game without Watson...

[bilsu]

You're right that may be a stretch, but i'm not convinced they will finish 4th..in fact, I could see MU beating them twice and ultimately finishing ahead of them, wherever that may be in the standings.

Xavier will finish under .500, if MU beats them twice.

[bilsu]

Why would PC need to get 9 wins?

If PC, Georgetown, and St John's (and DePaul I guess) win some games against MU and SHU, they could force 9-9 and 8-10 respectively. Which would lead to an interesting selection Sunday.

Providence lost to DePaul. That loss is going to bite them just like it did to MU last year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is exactly what I thought of when I heard about Watson's injury.  Top ten team, lots of potential, this is "the" year only to lose your senior leader at PG.  We absolutely tanked after DJ went out (was Utah St the only win without him?) and it would be sad to see the same happen to Creighton.  They won't be a top two seed in March, but they have more time to turn things around and prove they can succeed without Watson.  We didn't really have that chance with the end of season schedule after James' injury.

That said, I wouldn't be terribly upset if Creighton struggled emotionally and basketball-ly in their first game without Watson...

We crushed SJU in the BET but that was nothing to write home about.

Lost by 4 @Lousiville, Lost in OT to Cuse, Lost by 1 to Nova in the BET. All ranked teams that we nearly beat without James. Good chance we win at least two more in the regular season (argument for winning against UConn too). Probably would have had a shot at the BET title. Lots of what ifs in that game.

Creighton, we feel your pain.

[brewcity77]

That said, I wouldn't be terribly upset if Creighton struggled emotionally and basketball-ly in their first game without Watson...

Agreed...and if they had a relapse on the last day of regular season play I also wouldn't complain

And agreed completely with TAMU on winning 2-3 in the regular season. We lost that UConn game because AJ Price took Mo Acker's defense apart. With James, at home, I think we win that (as well as Louisville and Syracuse).

[Zephyr820]

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

[Golden Avalanche]

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

Impressive X gets such a high percentage. Their non-con is blah. Didn't compete against Baylor. Bad loss to Colorado. Best win is probably Clemson (who's bad in ACC). Maybe Utah (who's mediocre in Pac-12)?

Also can be argued a team like Xavier should show better in their games against Nova, Butler, and Jays regardless of location. They needed furious late game rallies (and an injury to best PG in country) in the latter two to make the score respectable. But for the most part they haven't competed for what is a supposed surefire NCAA team.