I am afraid that Creighton is going to come out on fire and ride a huge surge of emotion (both the players and their crowd) to a big win. Hope I am wrong, but I don't think this is going to be particularly close.
Certainly possible. Losing a point guard like Watson Jr is like losing a franchise QB. Sometimes Dak Prescott comes in and leads you to a 1 seed (and an early playoff exit!). But for every Dak, there are four Matt McGloins who come in and tank your promising season.
Creighton will need to either run a banged up Isaiah Zierden at point despite him being a SG with little speed and no playmaking ability or hand the keys to true freshmen Davion Mintz who was ranked #340 coming out of high school and has only averaged 5.8 minutes a game this season. Mintz either has to really step up or they need to completely change their play style because Zierden cannot do what Watson Jr. did for their offense. I'm still expecting a loss because they have that much talent, but Creighton will take a yuge step back.
