How MU can be a tourney team

[GB Warrior]

I have been pessimistic and accurate the last two years with my predictions for the team.   This year, I am of two minds.    On the one hand, the lack of size and strength at the 4 can (and probably will) lead to defensive rebounding issues.  In my pessimistic moments, I believe that will be a fatal flaw that will be the difference between an 18 and 22 regular season wins.   I am going to be optimistic for this thread. 

So, optimistically.......

This will likely be as deep as any MU team I can remember.    It could legitimately go 11 deep.   It goes a legit 3 deep at the 1-2-3 positions.   To mitigate and camouflage the lack of size at the 4, Wojo will employ my preferred style of basketball.    Extend the defensive pressure and push tempo.   Rotate guys in and out quickly, having them play balls-out for 3-4 minutes and then bring in someone equally good to do the same for the next 3-4 minutes.   When turnovers are created and the ball is pushed, shooters sprint to their spots at the 3 point line, ready to receive the pass and take the early and open 3.   A few makes beget confidence which leads to more confidence in shooting which leads to more makes.  Seven different players handle the ball well enough to confidently lead a fast break.   MU averages in the low 80's for PPG.   10 players average double digit minutes.    8 different players lead the team in scoring. 
    The defensive pressure leads to turnovers and forced shots.   Long rebounds mitigate our lack of size underneath.   MU is able to break even on rebounding, securing important defensive rebounds, and preventing 2 minute possessions for the other team late in the game.    We see 'switchables' taken to an NTH degree as 8 different players rotate between the 2-3-4, mixing and matching as the flow of the game dictates.    MU wears down the opponent with the depth and no one cares about who starts because the minutes are being divvied up among them all.    Eventually, the five who need to finish the game emerges.     MU rides this to 23 regular season wins and makes it to the second weekend of the tournament.   
 

I think you just described Havoc

*ducks*

[brewcity77]

The subject was what do we need to do to make the tournament. 3 losses at home puts us at 14-3. There are 13 road/neutral games. 6 and 7 in those games gets us to 20-10, so it is certainly possible to make the tournament with 3 home losses. However, losing to Wisconsin, Xavier and Villanova at home may not give us any wins over ranked teams, which will hurt us when the bids are handed out. Beating one of them, but losing to another team may give us a bad home loss. The more you lose at home the more you need to win on the road.
Last year after Big East tournament at time bids were handed out:
Butler 21 wins
Providence 23 wins
Seton Hall 25 wins
Xavier 27 wins
Villanova 29 wins

This year, for us, 19-20 should be enough. Looking at our slate, I'm guessing we'll be in the 50-150 range for non-con schedule. Both us and Creighton would have probably merited consideration last year had our non-con SOS not been 229 (Creighton) and 304 (Marquette). If our non-con is around 100 and our overall SOS is top-60, it makes it a lot easier.

Probably need at least 9 of those wins in conference play too. It isn't a complete killer, but sub-.500 records in conference don't help your cause.

[tower912]

I think you just described Havoc

*ducks*

I love Havoc.  IMO, a wojo version of that is the best use of this roster.

[Galway Eagle]

I love Havoc.  IMO, a wojo version of that is the best use of this roster.

+1

[muwarrior69]

Just win?

[bilsu]

This year, for us, 19-20 should be enough. Looking at our slate, I'm guessing we'll be in the 50-150 range for non-con schedule. Both us and Creighton would have probably merited consideration last year had our non-con SOS not been 229 (Creighton) and 304 (Marquette). If our non-con is around 100 and our overall SOS is top-60, it makes it a lot easier.

Probably need at least 9 of those wins in conference play too. It isn't a complete killer, but sub-.500 records in conference don't help your cause.

Our schedule is a big improvement over last year, but it is not as tough as you think. We no longer haves games against Syracuse, Notre Dame, Uconn, Cincy,Louisville, West Virginia or Pitt that gave us many more opportunities to pick up NCAA tournament quality wins. Based on preseason rankings we have 7 games against top 25 teams. Four at home and three on the road. We probably need at least 21 wins including Big East tournament to get a bid. Last year we had 20 wins with four victories against NCAA tournament teams (Providence twice, Butler and Wisconsin), which did not even qualify us for an NIT bid. Playing and beating a 200 ranked team vs. a 300 ranked team makes your schedule look tougher, but really does not matter much.

[BM1090]

Our schedule is a big improvement over last year, but it is not as tough as you think. We no longer haves games against Syracuse, Notre Dame, Uconn, Cincy,Louisville, West Virginia or Pitt that gave us many more opportunities to pick up NCAA tournament quality wins. Based on preseason rankings we have 7 games against top 25 teams. Four at home and three on the road. We probably need at least 21 wins including Big East tournament to get a bid. Last year we had 20 wins with four victories against NCAA tournament teams (Providence twice, Butler and Wisconsin), which did not even qualify us for an NIT bid. Playing and beating a 200 ranked team vs. a 300 ranked team makes your schedule look tougher, but really does not matter much.

It didn't qualify us for an NIT bid because our buy games were terrible. We had 7 300+ RPI opponents. This year,we have most likely 2 300+ RPI opponents with an outside chance at having 0. Playing a 200 ranked team over a 300 ranked team doesn't matter much in the sense that neither will be good wins, but the computer numbers will be much improved with this year's schedule. And that's important.

If our buy games were better last year, our RPI jumps significantly and we have an NIT berth.

[Bocephys]

Just win?

Baby?

[Jay Bee]

Our schedule is a big improvement over last year, but it is not as tough as you think. We no longer haves games against Syracuse, Notre Dame, Uconn, Cincy,Louisville, West Virginia or Pitt that gave us many more opportunities to pick up NCAA tournament quality wins. Based on preseason rankings we have 7 games against top 25 teams. Four at home and three on the road. We probably need at least 21 wins including Big East tournament to get a bid. Last year we had 20 wins with four victories against NCAA tournament teams (Providence twice, Butler and Wisconsin), which did not even qualify us for an NIT bid. Playing and beating a 200 ranked team vs. a 300 ranked team makes your schedule look tougher, but really does not matter much.

You're wrong multiple times here

[Nukem2]

You're wrong multiple times here

Details...details. 

[Newsdreams]

You're wrong multiple times here

+1

[Herman Cain]

Yep. Vandy is huge. Then win 1 of 2 in NYC. Then beat either Wisconsin or Georgia.

Sweep Providence, DePaul, SJU. Beat Gtown, Butler, SHU, Creighton at home.

I see us going 0-5 in the tough non conference games. We won't be blown out but we won't win.  The other teams ( with the exception of Wisky) have coaches who are more seasoned and successful than ours. They need to win those games as much as we do .

I see us going at best 7-11 in conference. Again no blow outs, but we have improved less than the rest of the teams in conference , with the exception of Providence who we beat twice last year. So it is going to be hard to improve on last years record.

Our only path to the tournament this year is to get hot and win the BET.

[Galway Eagle]

I see us going 0-5 in the tough non conference games. We won't be blown out but we won't win.  The other teams ( with the exception of Wisky) have coaches who are more seasoned and successful than ours. They need to win those games as much as we do .

I see us going at best 7-11 in conference. Again no blow outs, but we have improved less than the rest of the teams in conference , with the exception of Providence who we beat twice last year. So it is going to be hard to improve on last years record.

Our only path to the tournament this year is to get hot and win the BET.

So everyone's due for a breakout year but we're not good enough?

[wadesworld]

I see us going 0-5 in the tough non conference games. We won't be blown out but we won't win.  The other teams ( with the exception of Wisky) have coaches who are more seasoned and successful than ours. They need to win those games as much as we do .

I see us going at best 7-11 in conference. Again no blow outs, but we have improved less than the rest of the teams in conference , with the exception of Providence who we beat twice last year. So it is going to be hard to improve on last years record.

Our only path to the tournament this year is to get hot and win the BET.

No, it's not.

[MarquetteDano]

A lot predictions here but I think the point of the post was to ask what does this team need to do from player and X/O standpoint to get in the tourney.

A lot of mentions of playing super up tempo.   I wonder if playing too up tempo could be a problem?  To play up tempo well, you need to force a lot of TO's and defensive rebound well.  Not sure we will good on either count.  Maybe turnovers,  hard to say with the new players.

If you try to play super up tempo you need guards to not get too deep so that when you get the ball on the defensive end you can outlet the ball  and get it up court quickly.  I think we may need to gang rebound which means guards may be too deep in the opponents backcourt to play super fast.

I agree that we don't want a slow-down,  throw the ball in the post,  type game but I think we will need to pick our spots to play up tempo.  Not force it.

If somehow we can be a slightly above average defensive rebounding team, play up tempo when it suits,  we have a chance to the tourney.

[Herman Cain]

So everyone's due for a breakout year but we're not good enough?

Unfortunately, the other teams have improved more . We are handicapped because of our coach this year.  The style of play he wants to implement requires a lot of belief by the players in the coach and he is not a very inspirational and motivating guy.

[BM1090]

Unfortunately, the other teams have improved more . We are handicapped because of our coach this year.  The style of play he wants to implement requires a lot of belief by the players in the coach and he is not a very inspirational and motivating guy.

This makes absolutely no sense. I know that your not a Wojo fan and I get that but style of play is impacted by buy in from the players? If you can't get any buy in from your players then you probably won't be successful regardless of style.

[wadesworld]

Unfortunately, the other teams have improved more . We are handicapped because of our coach this year.  The style of play he wants to implement requires a lot of belief by the players in the coach and he is not a very inspirational and motivating guy.

Don't tell Katin or any of the other guys on the team.

You must've played high school basketball and know better though.

[Herman Cain]

This makes absolutely no sense. I know that your not a Wojo fan and I get that but style of play is impacted by buy in from the players? If you can't get any buy in from your players then you probably won't be successful regardless of style.

Bingo

33-32 career record
12-24 in conference

when it is all said and done on the Wojo era, he will be only slightly above Dukiet performance wise

[wadesworld]

Bingo

33-32 career record
12-24 in conference

when it is all said and done on the Wojo era, he will be only slightly above Dukiet performance wise

What record would you expect in a year your best players are Matt Carolino, Juan Anderson, and Derrick Wilson?

Remind me what Al's record was after 2 years of coaching? How about Coach K's?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Unfortunately, the other teams have improved more . We are handicapped because of our coach this year.  The style of play he wants to implement requires a lot of belief by the players in the coach and he is not a very inspirational and motivating guy.

We have more production returning than any team in the conference besides Georgetown, the highest ranked recruiting class, and two great transfers. How can you say with any confidence that every other team in the conference has improved more?

[brewcity77]

Our schedule is a big improvement over last year, but it is not as tough as you think. We no longer haves games against Syracuse, Notre Dame, Uconn, Cincy,Louisville, West Virginia or Pitt that gave us many more opportunities to pick up NCAA tournament quality wins. Based on preseason rankings we have 7 games against top 25 teams. Four at home and three on the road. We probably need at least 21 wins including Big East tournament to get a bid. Last year we had 20 wins with four victories against NCAA tournament teams (Providence twice, Butler and Wisconsin), which did not even qualify us for an NIT bid. Playing and beating a 200 ranked team vs. a 300 ranked team makes your schedule look tougher, but really does not matter much.

Quite simply, you're wrong. It's easier to look at Pomeroy than to analyze RPI, so while not equal, they are relatively close enough that I feel comfortable using that as the comparison benchmark. Only looking at the conference schedule, since you specifically reference old Big East teams. Let's take a look, bear with me, this will be a long post. Starting with 2008, which was the first year the Big East went to 18 games.

2008 (Old Big East)
1-25: 7
26-50: 3
51-100: 1
101+: 7

2009 (Old Big East)
1-25: 7
26-50: 3
51-100: 3
101+: 5

2010 (Old Big East)
1-25: 5
26-50: 3
51-100: 7
101+: 3

2011 (Old Big East)
1-25: 9
26-50: 3
51-100: 4
101+: 2

2012 (Old Big East)
1-25: 4
26-50: 6
51-100: 4
101+: 4

2013 (Old Big East)
1-25: 6
26-50: 3
51-100: 2
101+: 7

2014 (New Big East)
1-25: 4
26-50: 2
51-100: 10
101+: 2

2015 (New Big East)
1-25: 8
26-50: 4
51-100: 4
101+: 2

2016 (New Big East)
1-25: 4
26-50: 8
51-100: 2
101+: 4

2017 Projected (New Big East)
1-25: 6
26-50: 6
51-100: 2
101+: 4

Average Old Big East
1-25: 6.3
26-50: 3.5
51-100: 3.5
101+: 4.7

Average New Big East
1-25: 5.5
26-50: 5
51-100: 4.5
101+: 3

There's a very slight advantage in terms of top-25 teams (less than 1 per year) but annually, we are now playing more teams in the top-50, more teams in the top-100, and fewer teams that are sub-100. I'd argue that at worst, the New Big East is equal to the Old Big East. However, when you look at the depth of quality across the league and the reduced RPI drains when you play fewer sub-100 opponents (making 83% of league wins "good wins") we are actually playing a tougher league schedule than we did in the past, and let's be honest, the league is trending up virtually across the board.

You think playing a 200 vs a 300 doesn't make a difference, you are out of your mind. I'm sorry, but that is probably the single most ignorant schedule related comment I've ever read or heard. It has absolutely no basis in reality and no connection to how the Selection process has been handled since the RPI was adjusted in 2004.

Look at Syracuse's resume last year compared to ours. We won 20 games, they won 19. They won 9 league games, we won 8. They went 3-2 against top-100 non-con opponents, we went 3-1. So where's the big difference? We junked up on sub-300 teams while they played teams primarily in the top-250. (And I know it's record and not RPI, but this still makes the point).

With a league as strong as ours, the main thing to focus on is the non-conference. Our league schedule will NOT keep us out, especially with the round robin. Non-conference can keep us out, especially if we play teams that are posting 0-8 wins per year in weak leagues. Get 4-6 high-major (or top-100) games and make sure the rest of the games are in the 100-250 range and our schedule will never hold us back. It's really that simple.

[brewcity77]

Or, stated more simply, the New Big East isn't the Old Big East because it's actually better.

In a stronger league, we only need a competitive non-con to have a resume that's tourney worthy. Play 4-6 high-majors and avoid teams across the board that win fewer than 10 games and we'll be fine.

[Marcus92]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Brew. KenPom's conference rankings tell a similar story. The difference is one of perception. Providence and Seton Hall are much stronger programs today. Xavier, Creighton and Butler have been strong additions. And the conference isn't weighed down by dreck like Rutgers. But lots of fans focus only on the big names like Syracuse and Louisville.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Brew. KenPom's conference rankings tell a similar story. The difference is one of perception. Providence and Seton Hall are much stronger programs today. Xavier, Creighton and Butler have been strong additions. And the conference isn't weighed down by dreck like Rutgers. But lots of fans focus only on the big names like Syracuse and Louisville.

That's the thing, the entire league seems to be trending up. We clearly are, St. John's has been recruiting well and showed flashes last year, and while DePaul will almost certainly be propping up the league again this year, there's reasons for hope under Leitao.

Looking at this league, it feels like we can become what the Big 12 has been and maybe even better. If 1-2 teams can join Villanova as regularly elite and the bulk of the league is top-100, we can be that league that sends 6-7 teams to the tourney each year.