How MU can be a tourney team

[tower912]

I have been pessimistic and accurate the last two years with my predictions for the team.   This year, I am of two minds.    On the one hand, the lack of size and strength at the 4 can (and probably will) lead to defensive rebounding issues.  In my pessimistic moments, I believe that will be a fatal flaw that will be the difference between an 18 and 22 regular season wins.   I am going to be optimistic for this thread. 

So, optimistically.......

This will likely be as deep as any MU team I can remember.    It could legitimately go 11 deep.   It goes a legit 3 deep at the 1-2-3 positions.   To mitigate and camouflage the lack of size at the 4, Wojo will employ my preferred style of basketball.    Extend the defensive pressure and push tempo.   Rotate guys in and out quickly, having them play balls-out for 3-4 minutes and then bring in someone equally good to do the same for the next 3-4 minutes.   When turnovers are created and the ball is pushed, shooters sprint to their spots at the 3 point line, ready to receive the pass and take the early and open 3.   A few makes beget confidence which leads to more confidence in shooting which leads to more makes.  Seven different players handle the ball well enough to confidently lead a fast break.   MU averages in the low 80's for PPG.   10 players average double digit minutes.    8 different players lead the team in scoring. 
    The defensive pressure leads to turnovers and forced shots.   Long rebounds mitigate our lack of size underneath.   MU is able to break even on rebounding, securing important defensive rebounds, and preventing 2 minute possessions for the other team late in the game.    We see 'switchables' taken to an NTH degree as 8 different players rotate between the 2-3-4, mixing and matching as the flow of the game dictates.    MU wears down the opponent with the depth and no one cares about who starts because the minutes are being divvied up among them all.    Eventually, the five who need to finish the game emerges.     MU rides this to 23 regular season wins and makes it to the second weekend of the tournament.   
   

[Jay Bee]

All about eFG% differential. Need at least 5.0% edge on the season. TO's must be reduced. Then, we've got a chance.

At around 74 possessions / game we'd prob be around 10th highest in the nation. Even that would require 1.08 ppp to get to an avg of 80... get there, good things are happening. Don't see it, but...

[HoopsterBC]

All about eFG% differential. Need at least 5.0% edge on the season. TO's must be reduced. Then, we've got a chance.

At around 74 possessions / game we'd prob be around 10th highest in the nation. Even that would require 1.08 ppp to get to an avg of 80... get there, good things are happening. Don't see it, but...

They need to run, run and run and play a pressing D, to turn teams over.  Not sure Wojo or Duke played a helter skelter way of playing that way.  But they do try
and run a great deal.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Cant find much to disagree with tower. I too have been pessimistic but accurate going into the past two seasons. I find myself with more optimism this season. I see as a team just inside the top 50. A few good breaks and we're dancing with a respectable seed. A few bad breaks and we're missing the NIT again and scoop burns to the ground. I think I've of the biggest factors in creating good breaks and limiting bad ones is experience and we have that in spades.

[HoopsterBC]

Cant find much to disagree with tower. I too have been pessimistic but accurate going into the past two seasons. I find myself with more optimism this season. I see as a team just inside the top 50. A few good breaks and we're dancing with a respectable seed. A few bad breaks and we're missing the NIT again and scoop burns to the ground. I think I've of the biggest factors in creating good breaks and limiting bad ones is experience and we have that in spades.

More importantly, lets see how the players understand there role and are happy with PT time, and except it.  This is where coaching becomes the key ingredient.
How to play all that depth.  Luke and Heldt fine, how to use Reinhardt and Hauser, even Cohen, then the 3 point guards.  It will be interesting.

[Marcus92]

More importantly, lets see how the players understand there role and are happy with PT time, and except it.  This is where coaching becomes the key ingredient. How to play all that depth.  Luke and Heldt fine, how to use Reinhardt and Hauser, even Cohen, then the 3 point guards.  It will be interesting.

Huge point.

If you think about the best teams under Buzz Williams, their success wasn't just about talent and in-game coaching. Take, for example, the Davante Gardner-Chris Otule rotation. A smart coaching tactic, designed to maximize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each player. Tricky to execute at times. But perhaps an even bigger accomplishment was getting both players to accept it.

Players have egos just like everybody else. I'm sure it was hard for Davante to accept that he was a huge defensive liability — so much so that staying on the court could negate everything he brought in terms of offense. Buzz had to convince Davante and Chris that this was best for the team and would help them win. That's good coaching.

This season, if we're playing a 10-man rotation, Wojo will have his hands full with in-game tactical decisions: who are the right 5 players on the floor at the right time, given the score, opposing matchups, pace, time remaining, et cetera. But the bigger job as a coach is making sure that every player on the roster buys in — even if that means fewer shots or less court time (possibly even an occasional DNP).

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. From everything I've heard so far, Wojo's been successful on this front. We'll see how that plays out.

[KampusFoods]

All about eFG% differential. Need at least 5.0% edge on the season. TO's must be reduced. Then, we've got a chance.

At around 74 possessions / game we'd prob be around 10th highest in the nation. Even that would require 1.08 ppp to get to an avg of 80... get there, good things are happening. Don't see it, but...

And we need to shoot a high FT% and Luke has to stay out of foul trouble right?

[bilsu]

We need to get back to winning all of our home games. 2 losses max at home.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We need to get back to winning all of our home games. 2 losses max at home.

Wisconsin, Villanova, and Xavier all project to be top 15 teams. We could certainly win those games, but to say we should only lose two when we will likely be underdogs in at least three of them seems high. The rest of the Big East is no slouch either. I would put my goal at three home losses this season. I think we can pull off the upset of Xavier.

[NotAnAlum]

Huge point.

This season, if we're playing a 10-man rotation, Wojo will have his hands full with in-game tactical decisions: who are the right 5 players on the floor at the right time, given the score, opposing matchups, pace, time remaining, et cetera. But the bigger job as a coach is making sure that every player on the roster buys in — even if that means fewer shots or less court time (possibly even an occasional DNP).

I think the most important player for Wojo to get on the same page with is D Wilson.  This team has a bunch of good players but do they have that Prime Time Player who can make the big basket that wins a game.  Duane is the one guy who has shown he is not afraid of the spot light.  And he is the natural team leader.  Much more than Fish or JJJ.  But last year I've heard pretty directly that Duane was unhappy with his role and felt he didn't "connect" with Wojo.  So with even less PT to spread around at his position can Wojo and Duane connect so that Duane plays with confidence and feels its his team and the coach is behind him, even if he is not always on the floor.

[GGGG]

Duane was third on the team in minutes played.  Behind Henry and just slightly behind Haanif.  He shot more than anyone per game but Henry, yet was about the middle of the pack in EFG%.

I like Duane.  But if he is unhappy in his role from last year, when he was given all sorts of opportunities to perform, then he should look in the mirror.

[HoopsterBC]

I think the most important player for Wojo to get on the same page with is D Wilson.  This team has a bunch of good players but do they have that Prime Time Player who can make the big basket that wins a game.  Duane is the one guy who has shown he is not afraid of the spot light.  And he is the natural team leader.  Much more than Fish or JJJ.  But last year I've heard pretty directly that Duane was unhappy with his role and felt he didn't "connect" with Wojo.  So with even less PT to spread around at his position can Wojo and Duane connect so that Duane plays with confidence and feels its his team and the coach is behind him, even if he is not always on the floor.

As a ex-player, if you do not speak up you will sit on the end of the bench until doomsday.  I would be amazed if they did not work out there differences.  I think Duane
played about 30 minutes a game and many times he did not deserve it, but last year they had nobody to put in, different story this year.  Like everybody else, he will
have to earn his minutes.

[NotAnAlum]

I like Duane.  But if he is unhappy in his role from last year, when he was given all sorts of opportunities to perform, then he should look in the mirror.

I specifically used the word "connect".  You can play a lot of minutes and still feel you're not on the same page as the coach.  My son was on a college team where the coach "ruined" the best player on the team one year by the way he treated them both during and outside the game.  I'm not saying Wojo did the same things (this guy was a real idiot when it came to player relations) but something wasn't right.  Duane wasn't playing with the same swagger he had the prior year.   Things seem better this year so I'm hopeful.  But the thread comment was about Wojo's role in team chemistry so I'm building on that.  DW playing like redshirt freshman DW only with more experience would be a real asset to this team winning those couple games that determine NCAA or NIT or nothing.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Cant find much to disagree with tower. I too have been pessimistic but accurate going into the past two seasons. I find myself with more optimism this season. I see as a team just inside the top 50. A few good breaks and we're dancing with a respectable seed. A few bad breaks and we're missing the NIT again and scoop burns to the ground. I think I've of the biggest factors in creating good breaks and limiting bad ones is experience and we have that in spades.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts exactly.  Much more optimistic this year due to no longer being the 6th youngest team in D1.

While admitting that it seems there is always an overly optimistic view of what freshman are going to contribute, Hauser is getting nothing but glowing reviews.  If he could step into the 4 and provide 20-25 minutes per game of nothing but rebounding and put backs while playing decent defense (i.e., Sophomore Jimmy Butler) it sure seems like we'd be in good shape.

[wadesworld]

Pretty much sums up my thoughts exactly.  Much more optimistic this year due to no longer being the 6th youngest team in D1.

While admitting that it seems there is always an overly optimistic view of what freshman are going to contribute, Hauser is getting nothing but glowing reviews.  If he could step into the 4 and provide 20-25 minutes per game of nothing but rebounding and put backs while playing decent defense (i.e., Sophomore Jimmy Butler) it sure seems like we'd be in good shape.

I think Hauser can give us 15-20 minutes but I don't think it's going to consist of a ton of put backs.  I'm hopeful he can grab 3 or 4 rebounds per game but I'm also hopeful that he can pull an interior defender out to the perimeter and knock down some shots.

[Herman Cain]

We have enough talent to become a tourney team. I lack confidence in Wojos coaching and leadership capability , especially as it relates to playing time allocation and rotation,and thus continue to believe we project out to a losing season.

[brewcity77]

I have been pessimistic and accurate the last two years with my predictions for the team.

Out of curiosity, did you peg us for a winning record last year? I know you weren't high on the team, but were you at the 20 win point?

I'm an eternal optimist in October, and right now think 19-21 wins is a good bet and would have us in the Tournament. Rebounding is definitely an issue, but on paper we've never had this good of a team from a shooting perspective. Hopefully makes diminish our need for offensive boards and team rebounding on defense allows us to at least keep up.

I do think we'll be better than last year, and with our schedule, 19 wins should be enough for a bid. The first four are critical. Get out to a 3-1 start and we're in good shape. 2-2 or 1-3 and it will be an uphill battle all year long.

[wadesworld]

We have enough talent to become a tourney team. I lack confidence in Wojos coaching and leadership capability , especially as it relates to playing time allocation and rotation,and thus continue to believe we project out to a losing season.

Okay Ners.

[tower912]

Out of curiosity, did you peg us for a winning record last year? I know you weren't high on the team, but were you at the 20 win point?

I'm an eternal optimist in October, and right now think 19-21 wins is a good bet and would have us in the Tournament. Rebounding is definitely an issue, but on paper we've never had this good of a team from a shooting perspective. Hopefully makes diminish our need for offensive boards and team rebounding on defense allows us to at least keep up.

I do think we'll be better than last year, and with our schedule, 19 wins should be enough for a bid. The first four are critical. Get out to a 3-1 start and we're in good shape. 2-2 or 1-3 and it will be an uphill battle all year long.

I predicted 17-18 wins lay year and no postseason.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Midgets success keys:  Trey shooting, low turnovers, experience, and free throw rate (attrition--not a deep bench).
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/01/guest-post-marquette-pace-and-rest-of.html

What may be different versus the Midget Team is pace.  That team lacked depth so they played at a slow pace.  Wojo wants uptempo and pressure like this as he has depth:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/01/guest-post-marquette-pace-and-rest-of.html
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/south-florida-pace-and-press.html

Of course, the Midgets also had four future NBA players on their roster.

[bilsu]

Wisconsin, Villanova, and Xavier all project to be top 15 teams. We could certainly win those games, but to say we should only lose two when we will likely be underdogs in at least three of them seems high. The rest of the Big East is no slouch either. I would put my goal at three home losses this season. I think we can pull off the upset of Xavier.

The subject was what do we need to do to make the tournament. 3 losses at home puts us at 14-3. There are 13 road/neutral games. 6 and 7 in those games gets us to 20-10, so it is certainly possible to make the tournament with 3 home losses. However, losing to Wisconsin, Xavier and Villanova at home may not give us any wins over ranked teams, which will hurt us when the bids are handed out. Beating one of them, but losing to another team may give us a bad home loss. The more you lose at home the more you need to win on the road.
Last year after Big East tournament at time bids were handed out:
Butler 21 wins
Providence 23 wins
Seton Hall 25 wins
Xavier 27 wins
Villanova 29 wins

[wadesworld]

Respect the process.

All we have to worry about is beating Vandy.

[bilsu]

Respect the process.

All we have to worry about is beating Vandy.

That is a huge game just like Belmont was. Beating Vandy does not get us an NCAA bid. Losing to Vandy is not a good sign. The same thing with the Big East opener at home against Georgetown. The Georgetown game will not be an easy game, but it is virtually a must win, if we want to finish in the top 5 in the Big East.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Don't lose more than three non-con games.

Get at least 10 BE wins.

You're in. 

[BM1090]

Don't lose more than three non-con games.

Get at least 10 BE wins.

You're in.

Yep. Vandy is huge. Then win 1 of 2 in NYC. Then beat either Wisconsin or Georgia.

Sweep Providence, DePaul, SJU. Beat Gtown, Butler, SHU, Creighton at home.