DePaul & Notre Dame To Start Home-and-Home

[Jay Bee]

Meanwhile we're scrimmaging a powerhouse like... Dayton

Flyers 2 Big East

[4everwarriors]

Fear da Kostas, ai na?

[Dawson Rental]

Fear da Kostas, ai na?

As a 38.4% qualifer, can Kostas even participate?

[MUtopper34]

What does ND have to gain from playing Marquette?

Not trying to be a dick, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense from their perspective. Competitive game that could easily end in an L, without exposure to novel or high volume recruiting markets.

The only surprising thing about this situation is that ND hasn't paid a favor to Bill Scholl and the rest of the domers at MU by agreeing to play a series against them. You see this with ND football all the time. Assistant coach becomes HC at UMass - all of a sudden UMass is added to schedule, same with Nevada, same with Duke (prior to ACC agreement), etc. Scholl could push hard for this game with Swarbrick and I think it would go through - regardless of what Brey says.

[Galway Eagle]

What does ND have to gain from playing Marquette?

Not trying to be a dick, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense from their perspective. Competitive game that could easily end in an L, without exposure to novel or high volume recruiting markets.

The only surprising thing about this situation is that ND hasn't paid a favor to Bill Scholl and the rest of the domers at MU by agreeing to play a series against them. You see this with ND football all the time. Assistant coach becomes HC at UMass - all of a sudden UMass is added to schedule, same with Nevada, same with Duke (prior to ACC agreement), etc. Scholl could push hard for this game with Swarbrick and I think it would go through - regardless of what Brey says.

First, that'd be a national game assuming we return to what we were from 2002-2013. Second one could argue that WI is quite the fertile recruiting grounds as of late. Third, I still maintain we could play at the UC and it'd be a major draw for fans of both teams.

[MUtopper34]

First, that'd be a national game assuming we return to what we were from 2002-2013. Second one could argue that WI is quite the fertile recruiting grounds as of late. Third, I still maintain we could play at the UC and it'd be a major draw for fans of both teams.

Big assumptions. Regardless, ND wants to send a message that they are the premier Catholic bball school in the nation (aside from Nova currently) -  with power 5 ACC exposure, back-to-back elite 8 appearances, and an ACC tourney crown. Why play anybody who is a threat to that if you don't need to?

[GGGG]

What does ND have to gain from playing Marquette?

Not trying to be a dick, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense from their perspective. Competitive game that could easily end in an L, without exposure to novel or high volume recruiting markets.

This argument would make more sense if they weren't playing Iowa this year.

[Benny B]

Let's face facts here, people.

Every year - right around the 14th of February - we all start looking at RPI algorithms, which quite often includes the lamention MU's soft OOC schedule.

Also, remember the RPI equation: 25% Win Percentage (WP)* + 50% Opponent's Win Percentage (OWP) + 25% Opponent's Opponent's Win Percentage (OOWP)

*weighted home/away

With that in mind, DePaul is OOC schedule gold.  The reason is simple, they're an easy win (WP) and they bring a solid OOWP to the table for their opponents... so even though DePaul's own record will be a drag on ND's OWP, their RPI is going to get a nice boost from both the win (especially when they beat them in Chicago), and they'll essentially get 2x the benefit of the entire Big East (sans DePaul) in their OOWP calculation.  Provided the Big East remains strong overall in OOC play and DePaul doesn't go 0-32, this is going to work out great for ND.

MU is nowhere near as attractive because even though we'd bring a substantially better record to ND's OWP, the risk/threat to ND's WP side of the equation, i.e. when MU beats them, far outweighs the OWP benefit (because the game result against a particular team has a much greater effect on your RPI than your opponent's OWP).  Further, while OOWP still includes the 2x effect of the Big East, that OOWP now includes DePaul record.  Twice.  So even if MU and DePaul played the exact same schedules, OOWP vs. MU < OOWP vs. DePaul.

In other words - through the lens of RPI - generally speaking:
Win vs. bad team > Loss vs. good team
Therefore: Win vs. bad team that plays a lot of good teams > Loss vs. good team that plays a lot of good teams but also the aforementioned bad team twice.

[MUtopper34]

This argument would make more sense if they weren't playing Iowa this year.

You do realize that the game is part of the ACC Big 10 challenge, right? The conferences determine the matchup.

[MUtopper34]

Let's face facts here, people.

Every year - right around the 14th of February - we all start looking at RPI algorithms, which quite often includes the lamention MU's soft OOC schedule.

Also, remember the RPI equation: 25% Win Percentage (WP)* + 50% Opponent's Win Percentage (OWP) + 25% Opponent's Opponent's Win Percentage (OOWP)

*weighted home/away

With that in mind, DePaul is OOC schedule gold.  The reason is simple, they're an easy win (WP) and they bring a solid OOWP to the table for their opponents... so even though DePaul's own record will be a drag on ND's OWP, their RPI is going to get a nice boost from both the win (especially when they beat them in Chicago), and they'll essentially get the benefit of the entire Big East x2 in their OOWP calculation.  Provided the Big East remains strong overall in OOC play and DePaul doesn't go 0-32, this is going to work out great for ND.

MU is nowhere near as attractive because even though we'd bring a substantially better record to ND's OWP, the risk/threat to ND's WP side of the equation, i.e. when MU beats them, far outweighs the OWP benefit (because the game result against a particular team has a much greater effect on your RPI than your opponent's OWP).

In other words - through the lens of RPI - generally speaking:
Win vs. bad team > Loss vs. good team
Therefore: Win vs. bad team that plays a lot of good teams > Loss vs. good team that plays a lot of good teams but also the aforementioned bad team twice.

Great post, thank you for helping them understand

[GGGG]

You do realize that the game is part of the ACC Big 10 challenge, right? The conferences determine the matchup.

I completely forgot about that.  Thanks. 

[Eldon]

Brey and Wojo won't play each other.  Dookies for life. 

This warped version of mutual respect may one day manifest itself come tourney time if MU is matched against ND, when both coaches decide to simultaneously forfeit the game.

[Galway Eagle]

Big assumptions. Regardless, ND wants to send a message that they are the premier Catholic bball school in the nation (aside from Nova currently) -  with power 5 ACC exposure, back-to-back elite 8 appearances, and an ACC tourney crown. Why play anybody who is a threat to that if you don't need to?

What are the big assumptions? That we return to 2002-2013 level of success? Wisconsin has become increasingly fertile recruiting grounds that is not an assumption. ND and MU both have very strong alumni bases in Chicago and both schools are a very easy bus ride for students so the big draw at an independent venue like the UC isn't an assumption.  One assumption, which isn't that big if you expect your program to be successful which Marquette does.

[MUtopper34]

What are the big assumptions? That we return to 2002-2013 level of success? Wisconsin has become increasingly fertile recruiting grounds that is not an assumption. ND and MU both have very strong alumni bases in Chicago and both schools are a very easy bus ride for students so the big draw at an independent venue like the UC isn't an assumption.  One assumption, which isn't that big if you expect your program to be successful which Marquette does.

I would question all 3. You might've seen that were preseason #7 in the new and weaker Big East despite several solid recruiting classes and an adequate adjustment period for these coaches so I don't have high hopes for return to 2002-2013 success anytime soon. Don't know how Wisconsin has become "increasingly fertile" for recruiting. Sure there have always been several average to good recruits each year (Butch, Vander, Ellenson), but I wouldn't say things have drastically changed - nothing like Chicago or the east coast like DMV where ND is cleaning up. ND students will not take a bus ride to the UC just for a basketball game, I'll tell you that right now. Local alumni would attend, sure, but ND basketball is not like MU basketball. ND football is to MU basketball as ND basketball is to MU soccer. Just not the same level of interest or excitement at a place where football reigns king.

[4everwarriors]

As a 38.4% qualifer, can Kostas even participate?

It don't matter. He has a rich bro, ai na?

[brewcity77]

With that in mind, DePaul is OOC schedule gold.

Benny posted a lot, but it all boiled down to this truth. I'd rather see Marquette pick off high-major bottom feeders, and if you're buying bottom-of-their-conference cupcakes, at least get teams that are in leagues ranked in the 10-20 range. That way you can still play a few sub-300s but they actually benefit you.

We've got Wisconsin and the annual tournament, beyond that, we don't really need marquee games, just smart scheduling.

[Galway Eagle]

I would question all 3. You might've seen that were preseason #7 in the new and weaker Big East despite several solid recruiting classes and an adequate adjustment period for these coaches so I don't have high hopes for return to 2002-2013 success anytime soon. Don't know how Wisconsin has become "increasingly fertile" for recruiting. Sure there have always been several average to good recruits each year (Butch, Vander, Ellenson), but I wouldn't say things have drastically changed - nothing like Chicago or the east coast like DMV where ND is cleaning up. ND students will not take a bus ride to the UC just for a basketball game, I'll tell you that right now. Local alumni would attend, sure, but ND basketball is not like MU basketball. ND football is to MU basketball as ND basketball is to MU soccer. Just not the same level of interest or excitement at a place where football reigns king.

As I said the assumption we eventually return to that level is true. 

You seem to ignore a lot of recent top 100 recruits out of Wisconsin, shall we go through a recent list?
2017 Terrence Lewis, Jordan Poole are both top 100;
2016 Sam Houser is top 100,
2015 Ellenson and Stone are All Americans and Nick Noskowiak is top 100
2014 Looney was All American, Cohen and Lachance top 100 
2013 Fischer, Burton and Wilson are top 100
2012 Sam Dekker is an All American and JP Tokoto is top 100

Here's where the cutoff is between the rise in WI talent and "occasional good recruit"

2011 Paul Jesperson is top 100
2010 Vander Blue is top 100
2009 Jamil Wilson and Jeronne Maymonn are top 100
2008 Korie Lucious top 100
2007 Keaton Nankvill Top 100

WI has definitely become more fertile in recent years than it was previously.

Fine argue about ND students not coming there's still enough Alumni and weird Irish-Americans with an ND woody to fill the seats.

[real chili 83]

Bunch of BS in this thread.

ND sucks. Any questions?

[Jay Bee]

Let's face facts here, people.

Every year - right around the 14th of February - we all start looking at RPI algorithms, which quite often includes the lamention MU's soft OOC schedule.

Also, remember the RPI equation: 25% Win Percentage (WP)* + 50% Opponent's Win Percentage (OWP) + 25% Opponent's Opponent's Win Percentage (OOWP)

*weighted home/away

With that in mind, DePaul is OOC schedule gold.  The reason is simple, they're an easy win (WP) and they bring a solid OOWP to the table for their opponents... so even though DePaul's own record will be a drag on ND's OWP, their RPI is going to get a nice boost from both the win (especially when they beat them in Chicago), and they'll essentially get 2x the benefit of the entire Big East (sans DePaul) in their OOWP calculation.  Provided the Big East remains strong overall in OOC play and DePaul doesn't go 0-32, this is going to work out great for ND.

MU is nowhere near as attractive because even though we'd bring a substantially better record to ND's OWP, the risk/threat to ND's WP side of the equation, i.e. when MU beats them, far outweighs the OWP benefit (because the game result against a particular team has a much greater effect on your RPI than your opponent's OWP).  Further, while OOWP still includes the 2x effect of the Big East, that OOWP now includes DePaul record.  Twice.  So even if MU and DePaul played the exact same schedules, OOWP vs. MU < OOWP vs. DePaul.

In other words - through the lens of RPI - generally speaking:
Win vs. bad team > Loss vs. good team
Therefore: Win vs. bad team that plays a lot of good teams > Loss vs. good team that plays a lot of good teams but also the aforementioned bad team twice.

Disagree. Need to consider the narrow band of oppts' oppts' W-L compared to the potential dramatic negative pull on RPI that playing a 9-22 the team can have.

[brewcity77]

Disagree. Need to consider the narrow band of oppts' oppts' W-L compared to the potential dramatic negative pull on RPI that playing a 9-22 the team can have.

I love the idea of getting in the teams that finish around .500 from high-majors. Relatively high chance of getting a win, if they get 12-17 wins they don't really hurt you too much, and virtually all of them have fairly high SOS so the opponent's opponents factor is a positive.

In recent years, the real gold would be schools like Georgia Tech, Clemson, Northwestern, Penn State, Alabama, Auburn, Arizona State, or frankly, Marquette (at least the last 3 years). Schools that generally win their 12-20 games but aren't good enough to get in the tournament, or if they are, get in as a low seed.

[Nukem2]

I love the idea of getting in the teams that finish around .500 from high-majors. Relatively high chance of getting a win, if they get 12-17 wins they don't really hurt you too much, and virtually all of them have fairly high SOS so the opponent's opponents factor is a positive.

In recent years, the real gold would be schools like Georgia Tech, Clemson, Northwestern, Penn State, Alabama, Auburn, Arizona State, or frankly, Marquette (at least the last 3 years). Schools that generally win their 12-20 games but aren't good enough to get in the tournament, or if they are, get in as a low seed.

Very true, but its hard to get those games outside of a tournament setting in November.  Catch 22.

[brewcity77]

Very true, but its hard to get those games outside of a tournament setting in November.  Catch 22.

I think it's the difference of targeting expected tourney contenders like NC State, Vanderbilt, LSU, Ohio State, and Georgia and looking a couple notches down the standings. There's always some luck in it, but I'd love to see us looking more at teams that are likely to be on the outside looking in come March. Unlikely to be bad losses, likely to have a good enough record, and always good for the opponent's opponents factor.

[Benny B]

Disagree. Need to consider the narrow band of oppts' oppts' W-L compared to the potential dramatic negative pull on RPI that playing a 9-22 the team can have.

I don't think they're giving up a game against UCONN to play DePaul.  They're already going to be playing a 9-22 team in that schedule slot anyway, so might as well get an OOWP boost out of it.

[Jay Bee]

I don't think they're giving up a game against UCONN to play DePaul.  They're already going to be playing a 9-22 team in that schedule slot anyway, so might as well get an OOWP boost out of it.

This looks like a new argument I didn't see in your earlier post, but I might disagree here as well.

The OOWP differential usually isn't meaningful enough to move things much at all due because of the narrow band of distribution within D-I college bball, whereas the OWP can make a great impact. But, since we're taking that out of the equation now, we're left with only risk of game outcome and OOWP.

Is the additional risk of playing DePaul instead of Coppin St. worth the OOWP improvement? In some years yes, in others probably not.

For me it all goes back to OWP being incredibly important. "Easy" games against .500 teams I can see the appeal of... vs. 9-22? Tough to get there.

[GooooMarquette]

Bunch of BS in this thread.

ND sucks. Any questions?

I agree with this analysis.