Luke Fischer Poised for Breakout Season

[Herman Cain]

I believe Luke Fischer is poised for a breakout season .  He has built himself up physically and hopefully he will be fully healthy.  The key will be to keep himself in the game by the staying out of foul trouble which has been his nemesis .  If he can play a little smarter, he could be an All Big East type player.  If he has a big year we will  do very well as a team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

He better, otherwise were screwed.

[Jay Bee]

I believe Luke Fischer is poised for a breakout season .  He has built himself up physically and hopefully he will be fully healthy.  The key will be to keep himself in the game by the staying out of foul trouble which has been his nemesis .  If he can play a little smarter, he could be an All Big East type player.  If he has a big year we will  do very well as a team.

Luke doesn't have a foul issue, but does have a defensive rebounding issue. He was called for 4.16 fouls per 40 minutes last year. Other bigs in the BEast who fouled more often include:

Ochefu, Nova
Farr, Xavier
Hegner, Creighton
Sima, St. John's
Wideman, Butler
Hayes, Georgetown
Stimage, DePaul
Reynolds, Xavier
Govan, Georgetown

All of the above except Farr and Ochefu averaged more than 5 fouls per 40 minutes. Luke NEVER has (4.9, 4.6 to 4.2 from FR to JR year).

This team runs the risk of being horrible in the area defensive rebounding. Luke was sub-12% last season and never better than 12.8%. In conference play last year, he had a DR% of 11.2%, barely beating out Haanif (11.0%) and behind JjJ (11.6%).

For his size, his DR% are incredibly low and always have been. That's a real concern.

[Herman Cain]

Luke doesn't have a foul issue, but does have a defensive rebounding issue. He was called for 4.16 fouls per 40 minutes last year. Other bigs in the BEast who fouled more often include:

Ochefu, Nova
Farr, Xavier
Hegner, Creighton
Sima, St. John's
Wideman, Butler
Hayes, Georgetown
Stimage, DePaul
Reynolds, Xavier
Govan, Georgetown

All of the above except Farr and Ochefu averaged more than 5 fouls per 40 minutes. Luke NEVER has (4.9, 4.6 to 4.2 from FR to JR year).

This team runs the risk of being horrible in the area defensive rebounding. Luke was sub-12% last season and never better than 12.8%. In conference play last year, he had a DR% of 11.2%, barely beating out Haanif (11.0%) and behind JjJ (11.6%).

For his size, his DR% are incredibly low and always have been. That's a real concern.

Part of the reason he has trouble rebounding is because he gets in early foul trouble.

[forgetful]

Luke will be fine in rebounding.  His job on the glass was to clear out the other big to give others a clear area to rebound.  He did an awesome job of boxing out and clearing away the other teams big. 

Rebounding is often a team strategy.  Luke is a way better rebounder than last years stats say. 

[fjm]

With Hauser putting on 15lbs and an extra inch, he may be helpful on the rebounding end. Granted I don't expect him to play a whole ton as a frosh.

[mu03eng]

Luke will be fine in rebounding.  His job on the glass was to clear out the other big to give others a clear area to rebound.  He did an awesome job of boxing out and clearing away the other teams big. 

Rebounding is often a team strategy.  Luke is a way better rebounder than last years stats say.

This is 100% correct. The strategy last year was to use Luke to clear out for Henry(who's a great rebounder) to corral the lose ball as Henry is also good at the first outlet pass. Additionally, a lot of our missed were on long shots meaning long rebounds. The strategy will be a lot more about crashing the boards as a team this season IMHO, which means Fischer will get his.

The one thing I'm not sure of though is how his states will reflect on team performance. He could average a double double and we don't win more than 16 games or he could average 4 boards and 4 fouls a game and we could win 22. Luke Fischer is important to this year's team but I don't think he will be the most important.

[GGGG]

This is 100% correct. The strategy last year was to use Luke to clear out for Henry(who's a great rebounder)

Only if they are easy.

Luke isn't terribly strong.  He does position himself well however.  I expect him to be marginally better than last year.

[mu03eng]

Only if they are easy.

Luke isn't terribly strong.  He does position himself well however.  I expect him to be marginally better than last year.

I was thinking of making the easy joke, but decided to let someone else do it. 

[GGGG]

I was thinking of making the easy joke, but decided to let someone else do it. 

I only hit the easy softballs.

[bilsu]

Luke's foul issue came from reaching and getting silly fouls. Once he got those the other team could back him down. The big difference is that last year Henry could play the center spot when Luke went out. It remains to be seen how well Matt Heldt can fill that role.

[tower912]

Luke, 28 minutes, 12/8.
Heldt, 12 minutes 4/4.

[jsglow]

I was really surprised to see JB's foul stats on Luke.  I would have expected him to be among the worst culprits in the BEast.  Perhaps (only perhaps) my view was tainted because his fouls seemed most often to be 'bad' fouls in my eyes.  You know, those committed 40 feet from the rim when he reached.  I'd much rather he earn those with a hard rim protector foul.  As others have said, his D suffers when he can't afford to do his job down low.

[GGGG]

Luke, 28 minutes, 12/8.
Heldt, 12 minutes 4/4.

I think Heldt is a typical project big.  Looked a little out of place as a freshman.  Will look serviceable as a sophomore.  Will end up as a solid starter junior and senior year.  An Otule with some offensive game.

[Jay Bee]

This is 100% correct. The strategy last year was to use Luke to clear out for Henry(who's a great rebounder) to corral the lose ball as Henry is also good at the first outlet pass. Additionally, a lot of our missed were on long shots meaning long rebounds.

Re "our missed" (sic), Oreb isn't his issue - Luke has great o reb numbers.  We're talking DR% here.

Marq was a poor DR% team last year - #225 in the nation, but Henry helped.

The year prior, with Luke but no Henry, MU was horrid - #339. Luke wasn't much better that year, and the Steve/Juan combo didn't do nearly as well as Henry.

If the theory is that Luke has posted poor DR%'s simply because of design (clear out for another guy to rebound), who is/are the other guys this year? Don't see them. So Luke will change by design and transform into a rebounding machine?

Sounds great, not sure I can find a lot of comfort there.

[jsglow]

Re "our missed" (sic), Oreb isn't his issue - Luke has great o reb numbers.  We're talking DR% here.

Marq was a poor DR% team last year - #225 in the nation, but Henry helped.

The year prior, with Luke but no Henry, MU was horrid - #339. Luke wasn't much better that year, and the Steve/Juan combo didn't do nearly as well as Henry.

If the theory is that Luke has posted poor DR%'s simply because of design (clear out for another guy to rebound), who is/are the other guys this year? Don't see them. So Luke will change by design and transform into a rebounding machine?

Sounds great, not sure I can find a lot of comfort there.

He ain't no Rodman.

[bilsu]

I think Heldt is a typical project big.  Looked a little out of place as a freshman.  Will look serviceable as a sophomore.  Will end up as a solid starter junior and senior year.  An Otule with some offensive game.

Heldt was looking much better the last couple of games before he got hurt. Heldt missing the last 5 games or so may or may not of hurt the team, but he did lose a chance at getting valuable experience.

[tower912]

I think Heldt is a typical project big.  Looked a little out of place as a freshman.  Will look serviceable as a sophomore.  Will end up as a solid starter junior and senior year.  An Otule with some offensive game.

We agree.   My off-the-cuff prediction of his numbers reflect that.   

[lohaus]

Another Hauser fan . . . I like his defensive rebounding.  He is not the most explosive on the team.  Defensive rebounding will come from his sound fundamentals of boxing out and clearing space.  He plays taller then he is listed and you can tell he really worked on his body.  Not that it matters much . . .but I watched him outrebound Heldt in high school.  Hauser isn't going to be a player that just stands there and watches a shot.

[Loose Cannon]

Luke, 28 minutes, 12/8.
Heldt, 12 minutes 4/4.

Seems reasonable, but I also  think that Matt logs at least 2 minutes with Luke on the floor.  I would expect that to increase as the season progresses.

[Marcus92]

Is Heldt a better rebounder than Chris Otule, who averaged 3.6 rpg in 17.5 mpg over his career? Could be. But I think 4 rpg in 12 mpg is very optimistic.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is Heldt a better rebounder than Chris Otule, who averaged 3.6 rpg in 17.5 mpg over his career? Could be. But I think 4 rpg in 12 mpg is very optimistic.

I don't know if he is yet, but I think he will be before long.

[tower912]

Perhaps.   But Heldt has depth perception.    Otule could not corral rebounds that changed direction rapidly nor catch passes from short distances through traffic.    He handled longer entry passes up high, he collected rebounds that went straight up in the air.    Usually, though, his value in rebounding was his size and width that he would use to occupy at least one opponent.   He would clear space for someone else to grab the rebound or score. 
     But getting back to Heldt, with his size and the way he will probably be used, one rebound per 3 minutes is optimistic but not unreasonable. 

[GGGG]

Seems reasonable, but I also  think that Matt logs at least 2 minutes with Luke on the floor.  I would expect that to increase as the season progresses.

I'm not sure about that.  Who plays away from the hoop?

[tower912]

Good call, Sultan.    MU is going to be running a 4-out offense this year.    Having two post players will stifle movement and clog driving lanes.    See 'Oxtule'.