Vander Summer League

[jesmu84]

Let me be clear, the scouts I have dealt with....most of them at Draft Express and one that is not, all said he would be drafted the next year in their opinion.  You're correct, it is an opinion...an opinion of experts in their field, but anything could have happened.  That is their opinion, an educated opinion, which I'm passing along. 

There was a reason why most draft experts said he should REMAIN in college.  That was their educated opinion. 

I don't think I'm stating it as fact, but fair enough.  In my opinion, and the opinion of some scouts, he should have stayed in school and would have been drafted the following year.....is that better?

Why did those scouts think he would be drafted after senior year and not junior year? Because they anticipated/assumed continued growth/development, right? That's the big sticking point for me. I think Vander had maxed out his abilities while in college.

I would have had no problem with him staying (it would have made MU better). I had no real problem with him going either.

[wadesworld]

Let me be clear, the scouts I have dealt with....most of them at Draft Express and one that is not, all said he would be drafted the next year in their opinion.  You're correct, it is an opinion...an opinion of experts in their field, but anything could have happened.  That is their opinion, an educated opinion, which I'm passing along. 

There was a reason why most draft experts said he should REMAIN in college.  That was their educated opinion. 

I don't think I'm stating it as fact, but fair enough.  In my opinion, and the opinion of some scouts, he should have stayed in school and would have been drafted the following year.....is that better?

If your scout friends really think that a 6'4" shooting guard who couldn't shoot was going to get drafted after his senior year then they aren't very good scouts.

Yes, there is a reason that scouts said Vander should remain at college.  That reason is that he was not going to get drafted.  If Duane Wilson had decided he wanted to "enter the NBA Draft" back in April they would've said the same thing.  Not because that means "You're not ready for the NBA, but if you go back to school you have a great chance of being drafted after next season!"  It simply means, "You're not going to get drafted in this year's NBA Draft."

[GGGG]

Let me be clear, the scouts I have dealt with....most of them at Draft Express and one that is not, all said he would be drafted the next year in their opinion.  You're correct, it is an opinion...an opinion of experts in their field, but anything could have happened.  That is their opinion, an educated opinion, which I'm passing along. 

There was a reason why most draft experts said he should REMAIN in college.  That was their educated opinion. 

I don't think I'm stating it as fact, but fair enough.  In my opinion, and the opinion of some scouts, he should have stayed in school and would have been drafted the following year.....is that better?

Let me be clear. In retrospect they were wrong.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Why did those scouts think he would be drafted after senior year and not junior year? Because they anticipated/assumed continued growth/development, right? That's the big sticking point for me. I think Vander had maxed out his abilities while in college.

I would have had no problem with him staying (it would have made MU better). I had no real problem with him going either.

Simple, and I posted this on Cracked Sidewalks at the time as well as posts afterward.

Vander was one of the youngest guys in the draft for his class.  They felt that he had more maturing and growing (basketball wise) to do.  His outside shot was inconsistent, but at least trending better.  He would have the chance to play point guard at times, which he had not done to a great degree through his first three years.  The feeling was that he needed to show broader value, and the ability to step in and play point guard would be part of that.

Here's what was told to me by the founder of Draft Express prior to the draft (2 months prior).  When his final rankings came out two days before the draft, Vander was not on his list.  Of course, Vander didn't get drafted.

"Most of the people I spoke with believe he is probably a second round pick that could work his way up, but that he would be better off going back for his senior year because he is very young for his class...he is only 20 years old.  Blue would be a young senior at 21 if he had returned."

[MU82]

This is a classic Scoop argument.

"Fact" 1 cannot be proven, ever, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he WOULD have drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

"Fact" 2 also can never be proven, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he would NOT have been drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

And then the argument ensues, with each side arguing for their unprovable facts.

Too much fun. And THAT'S a fact!

[Herman Cain]

Since you can't delete posts on Scoop if you aren't a moderator, people edit their post with "nm" (never mind) if they no long want to say something they previously posted.

So I guess I better go back and NM all my posts about Henry staying 4 years.

[ChicosBailBonds]

This is a classic Scoop argument.

"Fact" 1 cannot be proven, ever, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he WOULD have drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

"Fact" 2 also can never be proven, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he would NOT have been drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

And then the argument ensues, with each side arguing for their unprovable facts.

Too much fun. And THAT'S a fact!

Fact, you lied about what I said earlier today.....but don't worry, I don't expect an apology.   

You are correct, impossible to say what would happen with Vander.  There are opinions and more opinions.  There are expert opinions, which may or may not be more valuable than just every day opinions.

[Loose Cannon]

This is a classic Scoop argument.

"Fact" 1 cannot be proven, ever, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he WOULD have drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

"Fact" 2 also can never be proven, because Vander did NOT return for his senior season and therefore we will never, ever know that he would NOT have been drafted. But that won't stop some posters from treating it as fact.

And then the argument ensues, with each side arguing for their unprovable facts.

Too much fun. And THAT'S a fact!

OK, Joe Friday.

[MU82]

Fact, you lied about what I said earlier today.....but don't worry, I don't expect an apology.   

You are correct, impossible to say what would happen with Vander.  There are opinions and more opinions.  There are expert opinions, which may or may not be more valuable than just every day opinions.

You lie about me lying. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to say it here. After all, I didn't have time to post it on the The Superbar thread because it was locked after you made it political.

As for opinions ... Chicos, we all know that any opinion you favor is more valuable than anybody else's opinion. That's how a narcissist always thinks.

[We R Final Four]

In my opinion, and the opinion of some scouts, he should have stayed in school and would have been drafted the following year.....is that better?

We know. You have provided this opinion dozens of times--any chance you get. Strange obsession you have.

[MerrittsMustache]

Fact, you lied about what I said earlier today.....but don't worry, I don't expect an apology.   

You are correct, impossible to say what would happen with Vander.  There are opinions and more opinions.  There are expert opinions, which may or may not be more valuable than just every day opinions.

First of all, if any NBA Draft "experts" in the media truly were draft experts, they'd be employed by NBA teams.

Second, Vander was NOT going to be drafted when he came out. Had he stayed his senior year, there was a slightly better chance he'd get drafted but the odds were still against him. If you want to make the argument that staying for his senior was likely to increase his chances to get drafted, you could do that (i.e. he went from a 1% chance of being drafted to a 4% chance). That said, being drafted would have in no way impacted his ability to stick on an NBA roster. If he was an NBA player, he'd be on a roster. He's not so he isn't. Being a late 2nd Round pick wasn't going to change that.

[tower912]

IF Vanderbilt had come back, started at the point all year, been successful, let the team on another deep run....... Maybe he gets drafted.   Moot point.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That said, being drafted would have in no way impacted his ability to stick on an NBA roster. If he was an NBA player, he'd be on a roster. He's not so he isn't. Being a late 2nd Round pick wasn't going to change that.

I actually agree with Chicos to an extent on this. I don't have the data but just by my memory it certainly seems like those who are drafted are given a little more rope and time to prove themselves. The only D-League players I can think of who did anything in the NBA are Jeremy Lin, Rafer Alston, Birdman, and Danny Green. Most players in the D-league just seem to fade away.

I also agree that Vander was one of few players who legitimately could of improved his draft stock by staying another year. If he could show that he could run the point and shoot the 3 consistently, I think he would have been drafted. However, given that he still can't shoot the three consistently, and he's in a position where he practices and plays more often than he ever would have in college, I don't think that would have happened.

[GGGG]

I actually agree with Chicos to an extent on this. I don't have the data but just by my memory it certainly seems like those who are drafted are given a little more rope and time to prove themselves.

Merritts already addressed this in this topic:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51935.msg842668#msg842668

[MerrittsMustache]

Merritts already addressed this in this topic:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51935.msg842668#msg842668

In addition...

From the 2015 Draft, 11 2nd Rounders ended the NBA season on a roster.
9 Undrafted players ended the season on a roster.
9 US-born 2nd Rounders never even made a roster.

All total from 2013-15:
28 2nd Rounders on a roster
26 Undrafted on a roster
39 2nd Rounders NOT on a roster

(US players only - numbers not being padded with internationals)

[MU82]

In addition...


All total from 2013-15:
28 2nd Rounders on a roster
26 Undrafted on a roster
39 2nd Rounders NOT on a roster

In other words, it is statistically far less likely for a second-round pick to make an NBA roster than to not make an NBA roster.

Facts. Gotta hate 'em when you're a certain Scooper who keeps making arguments to the contrary.

[Lennys Tap]

First of all, if any NBA Draft "experts" in the media truly were draft experts, they'd be employed by NBA teams.

Second, Vander was NOT going to be drafted when he came out. Had he stayed his senior year, there was a slightly better chance he'd get drafted but the odds were still against him. If you want to make the argument that staying for his senior was likely to increase his chances to get drafted, you could do that (i.e. he went from a 1% chance of being drafted to a 4% chance). That said, being drafted would have in no way impacted his ability to stick on an NBA roster. If he was an NBA player, he'd be on a roster. He's not so he isn't. Being a late 2nd Round pick wasn't going to change that.

Truth.

[GGGG]

And one could argue that there are slightly more second rounders than free agents on NBA rosters because they simply are better basketball players to begin with.

I also agree that Vander was one of few players who legitimately could of improved his draft stock by staying another year. If he could show that he could run the point and shoot the 3 consistently, I think he would have been drafted. However, given that he still can't shoot the three consistently, and he's in a position where he practices and plays more often than he ever would have in college, I don't think that would have happened.

And that really is the point.  Vander may have made a mistake because he left Marquette without a degree and missed out on one more year of college experience, but as a basketball decision, it was largely irrelevant.  He has been given plenty of opportunities to showcase his talents...summer leagues, NBDL, cups of coffee in the NBA...and the collective response from NBA GMs has been...."meh."

Chicos insistence that he could have been drafted in the second round, and that second round picks are more valued than free agents, is simply wrong given Merritt's statistics. 

[CTWarrior]

In addition...

From the 2015 Draft, 11 2nd Rounders ended the NBA season on a roster.
9 Undrafted players ended the season on a roster.9 US-born 2nd Rounders never even made a roster.

All total from 2013-15:
28 2nd Rounders on a roster
26 Undrafted on a roster

39 2nd Rounders NOT on a roster

(US players only - numbers not being padded with internationals)

So 28/67 2nd rounders make an NBA roster.  26 out of some much, much, much larger number (all college senior playing basketball players plus internationals who come over) make it.  Seems like 2nd rounders have a much better chance of making it than non-draftees, which is part of Chico's point.
So I'm not so sure what these numbers mean to Vander's case.

Frankly, I tend to agree with those who say ultimately Vander would not have stuck in the NBA.  Bottom line is that he is around 6-3 and not adept enough of a ball handler/passer to play the point and not a good enough shooter or a big enough body to play the wing in the NBA.  Sure, if he was a lot better at one of those things and demonstrated it his senior year he would probably have gotten drafted and had a pretty good shot at being on someone's bench.  I don't see how he would have improved more at MU than in the NBDL, though, so I doubt he would have demonstrated that kind of improvement at MU.

But I also agree that if he had managed to get himself drafted after his senior year he would have improved his odds considerably.  I am not sure, but I don't think he would have improved enough to make that happen.

I think he'd have been better off staying at MU and graduating.  Would have opened more doors for coaching when his playing days are done.  Sure he could go back some time and finish, but credits expire and he's not making enough money to pay for college unless he goes to Europe, etc.  But I'm not presumptuous enough to expect Vander to think like me.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Merritts already addressed this in this topic:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=51935.msg842668#msg842668

Well yeah...but that just proves there are a lot more undrafted players than there are second round picks.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

(US players only - numbers not being padded with internationals)

I honestly don't know, why don't you include internationals? Is there a reason?

[GGGG]

Well yeah...but that just proves there are a lot more undrafted players than there are second round picks.

Chicos argument is that it leads to more opportunities when you are drafted.

But in this case, NBA GMs made 54 personnel decisions.  In making those decisions, they chose 28 second rounders.  They chose 26 free agents even though 39 additional second rounders were available.  So when chosing among options, NBA GMs were pretty much just as likely to choose an undrafted player as they were a drafted one.

Now you are right that the pool of undrafted players is significantly larger than the pool of second rounders, so the chance of any one player being selected is greater if you are a second round pick.  But second round picks are usually better than undrafted ones.  But there is no loyalty to those picks IF an NBA GM determines that another player is better.

[MerrittsMustache]

I honestly don't know, why don't you include internationals? Is there a reason?

Most of the international players are still playing under contract overseas so I didn't want to include them because it would skew the number of players who aren't currently in the NBA.

Only 5 of the 23 2nd round internationals (since 2013) have ever played in the NBA but very few (if any) of them were actually cut by an NBA team. They simply haven't come to the US to play.

[We R Final Four]

Chicos argument is that it leads to more opportunities when you are drafted.

But in this case, NBA GMs made 54 personnel decisions.  In making those decisions, they chose 28 second rounders.  They chose 26 free agents even though 39 additional second rounders were available.  So when chosing among options, NBA GMs were pretty much just as likely to choose an undrafted player as they were a drafted one.

Now you are right that the pool of undrafted players is significantly larger than the pool of second rounders, so the chance of any one player being selected is greater if you are a second round pick.  But second round picks are usually better than undrafted ones.  But there is no loyalty to those picks IF an NBA GM determines that another player is better.

Stated very well.

[MU82]

Chicos insistence that he could have been drafted in the second round, and that second round picks are more valued than free agents, is simply wrong given Merritt's statistics.

Oh, but Chicos didn't just insist Vander could have been drafted. He stated, as fact, that Vander WOULD have been drafted had Vander stayed.

Until Chicos was called on it. Then he admitted it was just an opinion.

But he wasn't about to "lose," so he said his opinion was superior to others' opinions because his opinion was based upon superior opinions.

Got it?