Kalif young to providence

[bilsu]

Bottom line -- our defense is going to have to take the pressure off Big Fishy. If it does not, Big Fishy and the  bench will know each other better than an old married couple.

Last year, Big Fishy got in foul trouble because he was the last line in a porous defense.

He got in foul trouble, because he would reach. Once in foul trouble the other team would just go after him.
When Buzz had his small teams he would use the guards to pressure the other teams guards to prevent the opportunities for the other team to go inside. I see no reason why this team cannot do the same. I am not worried about defense or Fischer or Heldt. We have the players to put a lot of pressure on the other team whether it is full court or half court. What I am worried about is rebounding. I see that as the team's greatest weakness. Allowing the opposing team to get the offensive rebound will result in the opposing team have the ball inside to do damage. That is basically how Al figured you beat a zone. Let the guards shoot and then have the bigmen clean up the misses. That of course worked well when you had the bigmen tandems Al had.

[Herman Cain]

He got in foul trouble, because he would reach. Once in foul trouble the other team would just go after him.
When Buzz had his small teams he would use the guards to pressure the other teams guards to prevent the opportunities for the other team to go inside. I see no reason why this team cannot do the same. I am not worried about defense or Fischer or Heldt. We have the players to put a lot of pressure on the other team whether it is full court or half court. What I am worried about is rebounding. I see that as the team's greatest weakness. Allowing the opposing team to get the offensive rebound will result in the opposing team have the ball inside to do damage. That is basically how Al figured you beat a zone. Let the guards shoot and then have the bigmen clean up the misses. That of course worked well when you had the bigmen tandems Al had.

Obviously we don't have the bruiser bigs like a Seton Hall or Xavier has  and  I don't think we have anyone who is the second coming of Don Kojis as far as rebounds are concerned. However, I do think the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out and play smart. 

[Lennys Tap]

Obviously we don't have the bruiser bigs like a Seton Hall or Xavier has  and  I don't think we have anyone who is the second coming of Don Kojis as far as rebounds are concerned. However, I do think the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out and play smart.

We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.

[Herman Cain]

We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.

Yes I am hoping that too.

[Marcus92]

We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.

Luke had almost as many offensive rebounds (100) as defensive (103) last year. With more experience and strength, I think he has the potential to improve his defensive rebounding. Obviously, that should be a big part of his focus this summer.

Believe it or not, Haanif is second among the returning players with 98 defensive boards. At 6-5 he's got good size for a 2-guard, and we'll probably see him defending multiple positions. He might just surprise a lot of people after a good offseason and spending some time in the weight room.

Sandy had 94 defensive rebounds last year in almost 200 fewer minutes than Luke. If he can get stronger, he could find a role as a defensive specialist — and leave the offense to Jajuan, Duane, Katin, Rowsey, etc. Maybe less is more from a shooting standpoint, if he can pick his spots as the 4th or 5th option in offensive sets.

Jajuan had 79 defensive rebounds a year ago — pretty much matching Luke's defensive rebounding percentage. Can he pack some muscle on his long and lanky frame? He is 22 and one of the most physically mature players on the team.

Matt saw just 53 minutes in Big East play, but did post a decent defensive rebounding percentage (higher than Luke's anyway). Just how much he's improved, and how much time he'll get on the court, is anybody's guess until the start of the season. Let's hope for a big jump in his sophomore year. Even 3 or 4 boards a game would be outstanding.

I don't expect Katin to suddenly become a rebounding force. But ESPN lists him at 215 — decent size for 6-6, and 25 pounds more than he was coming into college. Can he do better? That would sure help.

Anim and Hauser are wild cards. Sacar played just 26 minutes in 7 conference games. Maybe, just maybe, the fact that he was named the hardest worker means he'll be stronger and able to contribute on the defensive glass. As for Sam, I'm not counting on him to be a regular contributor as a freshman. And it's not as though he was some amazing rebounder in high school. Anything he brings to the table I see as a bonus.

Clearly, defense and rebounding will be a huge question mark going into 2017-18. We'll have to see how much of a difference a year makes for what was a very young team last season.

[HoopsterBC]

Good points but no longer a young team, 5 players should be seniors or graduated by now, different make-up this upcoming season.  One player lost, but 4 players
added, two Top 100 kids and two very experienced and older players that averaged 30 points per game.  This is a team now, not catering to one.  Lets see how Wojo
coaches this group.

[jsglow]

We're not young at all anymore.  That's no excuse for anything next year.  On the rebounding front, I've said to folks that the way Sandy earns his minutes is to play great perimeter D and rebound.   

[bilsu]

Matt was just starting to look good, when he hurt his knee(?). Unfortunately he missed valuable playing time at the end of the year with his injury. Did we ever find out what his injury actually was and what is his status now? I do think Anim is a wild card. His playing time last year was hurt by him not knowing where to be on defense. He is an offensively talented player and is suppose to be very athletic.

[Marcus92]

We're not young at all anymore.  That's no excuse for anything next year.  On the rebounding front, I've said to folks that the way Sandy earns his minutes is to play great perimeter D and rebound.

Agree completely. I didn't point that out as an excuse. With a year of experience for all the returnees, plus the experience of new additions Rowsey and Reinhardt, this should be a team that plays smarter than a year ago. Fewer turnovers and missed assignments. Better shots. They should also all be stronger and more physically mature, more ready for the rigors of Big East play (i.e. tough defense and rebounding).

[MU82]

Good points but no longer a young team, 5 players should be seniors or graduated by now, different make-up this upcoming season.  One player lost, but 4 players
added, two Top 100 kids and two very experienced and older players that averaged 30 points per game.  This is a team now, not catering to one.  Lets see how Wojo
coaches this group.

I agree with all of this, and I expect Wojo - who also is no longer inexperienced - to improve, too.

[NotAnAlum]

Clearly, defense and rebounding will be a huge question mark going into 2017-18. We'll have to see how much of a difference a year makes for what was a very young team last season.

Good Analysis Marcus92.  On defensive rebounding our 4 smaller guys have got to box out so that Luke only has to contend with the other center.  Also I NEVER want to see Luke outside hedging screens.  He got a lot of his fouls that way.  He simply can't recover out there and he is a foul waiting to happen.
For offensive rebounding shooting a bunch of 3s creates long rebounds.  For those we should have an advantage rebounding in space and we simply must make the most of that.  There will be games when we are simply over matched and we will get beat.  But we don't have to win all the games in the BE we only have to win 1/2 or better.  There will be times when our 3s are dropping that we should be able to out score an opponent.  We've also got to throw in wrinkles like 3/4 traps etc.  This year will show Wojo's coaching ability just like the year with the midgets showed Buzz could coach.

[Jay Bee]

Looking at rebounds and minutes played isn’t the best way to go about it, IMO.. since there’s better information out there or metrics that are relatively easy to calculate..
 
Yeah, Matt had a season-high 3 DR against Maine.. but that was a 104-67 win in an 82 possession game.. so was his DR% as good as it would be in a 65 possession game where the other team shot very well?  Nawwww…
 
Heldt’s DR% was 11.6% and for a 6’10” that’s very low.
 
Fischer’s was 11.8%, a career-low, this past season. However, his other two years were only 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. So, are there concerns that his DR% ceiling is low? Yup.
 
Heldt I think you still hold out hope for.. let’s get that to 17%, a’’ina?
 
Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
 
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
 
All of them.
 
Haanif had a DR% of 10.8%. For a 6’5” guy, I’m not wowed. (JjJ was at 11.2%).
 
Katin’s rebounding has been astoundingly low.
 
Henry’s DR% was excellent and frankly, Wally would have been our best returning rebounder.
 
Sandy was formidable at 15% in conference play. I think that can get him time on the court…
 
I just don’t know where the DR’s come from though.. other than a group effort.. I think you a) look to add a guy that can rebound, b) hope Matt can play some minutes and rebound, c) hope Fischer can show meaningful improvement.

[Marcus92]

CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:

Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)

Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.

Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.

Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.

Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.

Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.

With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.

Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.

[Jay Bee]

^^ Tough to reconcile without minutes, pace, opp shooting assumptions, etc.

"Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. "

So, I thought Vander's DR% dropped every year? Down near 9% by JR years

[Marcus92]

Tough to reconcile without minutes, pace, opp shooting assumptions, etc.

Agree 100%. I'd go so far as to say impossible to reconcile. I just wanted some rough idea of what it would take for this team rebound at a similar level to last year's — when Marquette had the best rebounder in 25 years.

So, I thought Vander's DR% dropped every year? Down near 9% by JR years

I don't even know that Vander is a good comparison for Haanif. Vander was quicker and more athletic. Hannif, I think, is smarter and craftier. The key question is, can Haanif improve on a very good freshman season in terms of defensive rebounding?

[bilsu]

CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:

Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)

Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.

Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.

Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.

Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.

Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.

With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.

Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.

That would be pretty close to making up the two Ellensons' defensive rebounds. Making up for their rebounds still makes us a bad rebounding team.  Otule was much bigger and much more athletic than Heldt, but I will take a center with two eyes over a center with one.

[Dawson Rental]

Looking at rebounds and minutes played isn’t the best way to go about it, IMO.. since there’s better information out there or metrics that are relatively easy to calculate..
 
Yeah, Matt had a season-high 3 DR against Maine.. but that was a 104-67 win in an 82 possession game.. so was his DR% as good as it would be in a 65 possession game where the other team shot very well?  Nawwww…
 
Heldt’s DR% was 11.6% and for a 6’10” that’s very low.
 
Fischer’s was 11.8%, a career-low, this past season. However, his other two years were only 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. So, are there concerns that his DR% ceiling is low? Yup.
 
Heldt I think you still hold out hope for.. let’s get that to 17%, a’’ina?
 
Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
 
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
 
Zero.
 
Haanif had a DR% of 10.8%. For a 6’5” guy, I’m not wowed. (JjJ was at 11.2%).
 
Katin’s rebounding has been astoundingly low.
 
Henry’s DR% was excellent and frankly, Wally would have been our best returning rebounder.
 
Sandy was formidable at 15% in conference play. I think that can get him time on the court…
 
I just don’t know where the DR’s come from though.. other than a group effort.. I think you a) look to add a guy that can rebound, b) hope Matt can play some minutes and rebound, c) hope Fischer can show meaningful improvement.

Do I expect Fischer to improve much?  Not really.  Will he (no pun intended) rebound to his prior year numbers?  I expect so.  He won't be competing with a teammate who is a quality rebounder with Henry gone.

[KampusFoods]

CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:

Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)

Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.

Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.

Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.

Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.

Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.

With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.

Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.

Disclaimer: former journalism major trying to do math. BUT, if everyone you named hits the maximum mark you gave them (Luke at 7.4 and so on), and the little guys hit the max of 2.7 total that you gave them, that adds up to 29 rebounds per game for the team. Would have been good for 349th in the country last year from what I found. We are screwed if we are 3rd to last nationally in rebounding. I think (hope) we find a way to not suck that bad. For reference we averaged 36 per game last season, 176th nationally.

[Marcus92]

Disclaimer: former journalism major trying to do math. BUT, if everyone you named hits the maximum mark you gave them (Luke at 7.4 and so on), and the little guys hit the max of 2.7 total that you gave them, that adds up to 29 rebounds per game for the team. Would have been good for 349th in the country last year from what I found. We are screwed if we are 3rd to last nationally in rebounding. I think (hope) we find a way to not suck that bad. For reference we averaged 36 per game last season, 176th nationally.

I focused on who seem to be the 6 leading contenders to improve their rebounding. But that doesn't include Traci, Duane, Katin, Rowsey, Sam or Marcus. To Jay Bee's point, all of this depends on who plays in the main rotation, how many minutes they get, what pace we play at, etc. Right now, everything is an unknown variable, to one degree or another; there are absolutely no known constants.

If we're playing more 4 out/1 in — with a lineup of say Traci, Rowsey, Jajuan, Katin and Luke — the defense will have a completely different dynamic than when Henry was on the court. Smaller, yes. But also quicker, faster to switch when needed, able to put more pressure on the ball and threaten passing lanes, quicker to close out on perimeter shooters. And, we have more depth so guys should stay fresher throughout the game.

Ultimately, how this team and defense comes together will depend on offseason development and coaching.

[Marcus92]

Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
 
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
 
Zero.

Can you clarify this?

Of the 70/20, how many are returning?

Also, as written, sounds like Fischer had/has the best defensive rebounding percentage of any Big East player taller than 6-7. That can't be right, can it? Surely Delgado (6-9), Farr (6-10) and others had a better DR%.

Perhaps you meant to say that Luke was worse than everyone taller than 6-7.

[Jay Bee]

Can you clarify this?

Of the 70/20, how many are returning?

Also, as written, sounds like Fischer had/has the best defensive rebounding percentage of any Big East player taller than 6-7. That can't be right, can it? Surely Delgado (6-9), Farr (6-10) and others had a better DR%.

Perhaps you meant to say that Luke was worse than everyone taller than 6-7.

Cripes, sorry, my mistype. Yes, Fischer's was the lowest of the 20 guys taller than 6'7".

Those 20 = BEast guys, taller than 6'7", who played at least 40% of their team's available minutes in 2015-16 (full season).

[Marcus92]

Cripes, sorry, my mistype. Yes, Fischer's was the lowest of the 20 guys taller than 6'7".

Those 20 = BEast guys, taller than 6'7", who played at least 40% of their team's available minutes in 2015-16 (full season).

Thanks. I figured that's what you meant.

So Luke has nowhere to go but up, right? I can't help it; I'm an optimist by nature.

[Marcus92]

My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.

I don't think effort, anticipation or reflexes have anything to do with it. He demonstrated all of the above throughout the season on the offensive end — often getting to a rebound first, showing mobility out to the top of the key in some cases, and deflecting it to a teammate if he couldn't secure it himself.

A couple years ago you could have pointed to the shoulder injury. If it was serious enough to need surgery, it likely limited his movement and possibly his strength. The twin towers lineup had its limitations last season — but that seemed to come into play more with offensive spacing than defensive rebounds.

Having worked with top big men like Okafor, I'd be interested to hear Wojo's take.

[MUfan12]

My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.

A couple things worked against him. They way they used him on ball screen coverage was far from ideal. Also, he had to help a ton when the guards couldn't keep their man in front of them. That took him out of rebounding position (and led to some of his foul difficulties).

[GGGG]

My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.

I don't think effort, anticipation or reflexes have anything to do with it. He demonstrated all of the above throughout the season on the offensive end — often getting to a rebound first, showing mobility out to the top of the key in some cases, and deflecting it to a teammate if he couldn't secure it himself.

A couple years ago you could have pointed to the shoulder injury. If it was serious enough to need surgery, it likely limited his movement and possibly his strength. The twin towers lineup had its limitations last season — but that seemed to come into play more with offensive spacing than defensive rebounds.

Having worked with top big men like Okafor, I'd be interested to hear Wojo's take.

Wojo never worked with Okafor.  He was already here.