More conference expansion nonsense

[Marcus92]

Texas and Oklahoma are more valuable than a majority of the schools in the ACC.  Unfortunately, those two schools that are keeping the Big 12 together are also the two entities that are ripping it apart.

Texas will always look out for Texas, first and foremost. They could care less about the productivity and growth of the Big 12 - and there lies the ever-constant problem (not unlike Notre Dame/Big East scenario). Schools like TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech need Texas to remain relevant and in a strong conference. 

Whether the Big 12 expands or not, the conference will still remain unstable and ripe for raiding or implosion.

Great points.

[Herman Cain]

Agreed.

While the ACC is higher up in the pecking order than the Big 12, the Big 12 has more prestigious and desired athletic programs.  Texas and Oklahoma are more valuable than a majority of the schools in the ACC.  Unfortunately, those two schools that are keeping the Big 12 together are also the two entities that are ripping it apart.  They want more money, exposure and, most importantly, want to remain competitive with the other big dogs in college football. 

Texas will always look out for Texas, first and foremost.  They could care less about the productivity and growth of the Big 12 - and there lies the ever-constant problem (not unlike Notre Dame/Big East scenario).  Schools like TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech need Texas to remain relevant and in a strong conference. 

Whether or not the Big 12 expands or not, the conference will still remain unstable and ripe for raiding or implosion.  It would be in the best interests for all parties for Texas to be independent in football (keeping the Longhorn Network), and for the other schools to be assimilated by the other power conferences.  That would create a Power-4 (with 4 spots for the CFP - each conference getting a guaranteed position).

The two core schools of Big 12 football are Texas and Oklahoma. As long as they are doing well, the Big 12 is going to be a premier football conference. Anything that Baylor and OSU bring to the table will then be icing on the cake. They made a smart move to get TCU which has been strong in the last 15 years although much of that has been in a lesser  conference. If they can demonstrate 11 win plus consistency in the Big 12 a few more years  then add them in with Texas and Oklahoma.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The acc and big 12 have yet to poach from each other. Eventually that will change. I think the Big 12 comes out on top. The ACC will be forced to poach the aac and the aac will be firmly in the mid major status. I think UConn will still be stuck there when the dust settles

[GoldenWarrior11]

The two core schools of Big 12 football are Texas and Oklahoma. As long as they are doing well, the Big 12 is going to be a premier football conference. Anything that Baylor and OSU bring to the table will then be icing on the cake. They made a smart move to get TCU which has been strong in the last 15 years although much of that has been in a lesser  conference. If they can demonstrate 11 win plus consistency in the Big 12 a few more years  then add them in with Texas and Oklahoma.

But they aren't doing as well as member schools in the B1G and the SEC - and that's what they recognize will dramatically hurt them in the long run.  The fact that schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and other weaker football programs will be making more from TV deals over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech is an excruciating wound that cannot be stitched up by adding a Cincinnati or a Memphis or a Houston.  There is no school out there that will allow them to move the needle in terms of football competitiveness, market-size, viewership or fan-following. 

The writing is on the wall - it was the message that Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado and Missouri all figured out: the Big 12, long-term, is not a sustainable football conference compared to the B1G, SEC and PAC-12.  As long as the ACC still has Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame (albeit partially), they will remain as a power conference - and none of those schools will risk leaving the ACC to join the chaos of the Big 12 under Texas (so the ACC is safe for now).  The Old Big East was doomed when they lost Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College.  It was the crack in the hull of the ship that allowed the boat to start taking on water and begin sinking - leading to later defections of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and the C7 (and the destruction of Big East Football permanently). 

[brewcity77]

I prefer to think of it as the liberation from Big East football 

[GoldenWarrior11]

The other parallel between the current Big 12 and the old Big East is the inability of the conference members to agree on candidate(s) for expansion. 

In the old Big East, the league spent years arguing with each other and itself over whether to expand and who to expand with.  The football schools loved East Carolina - for it's North Carolina location, huge football stadium and strong recruiting area.  The C7 were adamantly opposed to them for obvious reasons, namely for its infamously poor basketball program.  The football schools (minus USF) really liked UCF - for it's Florida location, up-and-coming football program and strong recruiting area.  The C7, like ECU, hated the idea of yet another weak basketball program bringing down the basketball league.  Conversely, the C7 actually supported Memphis - who had a very strong basketball program under John Calipari and even made an NCAA Championship game appearance in 2008.  However, the football schools hated Memphis for its traditionally weak football program and low support.  No one could agree on what course of action to take.  Ultimately, the lack of additions/vision for the league led to dysfunction and its eventual demise.

Today, the Big 12 can't agree on whether to expand (mostly due to Texas) and what schools to add.  Do they add Cincinnati to help bridge the gap to West Virginia?  Do they add the best available football program, in BYU, as a football-only?  Do they extend their footprint even further in order to get UConn (and possibly access to the NYC market)?  Do they dip their feet into Florida with additions of UCF/USF?  Do they try and regain the Denver market by adding Colorado State? 

Personally, I'd be shocked to see the 10-schools unite and agree on two full-member additions.  There's no chance that Texas allows the Longhorn Network to be converted into a Big 12 network - they get too much money and branding from it.  Each school has its own agenda and each school has its personal choices for the betterment of the conference (mostly themselves). 

[Marcus92]

The other parallel between the current Big 12 and the old Big East is the inability of the conference members to agree on candidate(s) for expansion.

Another great post. After the C7 broke away, it was remarkable how united the school presidents were in talking about their common focus. Just the opposite is true of the Big 12. If anything unites them, it's fear of being left behind. But that still hasn't been enough to bring the conference together under one clear direction.

[Warrior Code]

The writing is on the wall - it was the message that Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado and Missouri all figured out: the Big 12, long-term, is not a sustrightble football conference compared to the B1G, SEC and PAC-12.  As long as the ACC still has Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame (albeit partially), they will remain as a power conference - and none of those schools will risk leaving the ACC to join the chaos of the Big 12 under Texas (so the ACC is safe for now).  The Old Big East was doomed when they lost Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College.  It was the crack in the hull of the ship that allowed the boat to start taking on water and begin sinking - leading to later defections of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and the C7 (and the destruction of Big East Football permanently).

Why does s-u-s-t-a-i-n-a-b-l-e autocorrect to sustrightble?

[forgetful]

Why does s-u-s-t-a-i-n-a-b-l-e autocorrect to sustrightble?

Its got to be because of the a'in-a right?

[Warrior Code]

Its got to be because of the a'in-a right?

[Herman Cain]

But they aren't doing as well as member schools in the B1G and the SEC - and that's what they recognize will dramatically hurt them in the long run.  The fact that schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and other weaker football programs will be making more from TV deals over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech is an excruciating wound that cannot be stitched up by adding a Cincinnati or a Memphis or a Houston.  There is no school out there that will allow them to move the needle in terms of football competitiveness, market-size, viewership or fan-following. 

The writing is on the wall - it was the message that Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado and Missouri all figured out: the Big 12, long-term, is not a sustrightble football conference compared to the B1G, SEC and PAC-12.  As long as the ACC still has Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame (albeit partially), they will remain as a power conference - and none of those schools will risk leaving the ACC to join the chaos of the Big 12 under Texas (so the ACC is safe for now).  The Old Big East was doomed when they lost Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College.  It was the crack in the hull of the ship that allowed the boat to start taking on water and begin sinking - leading to later defections of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and the C7 (and the destruction of Big East Football permanently).

I agree that Texas is a source of instability in the B 12 conference. I also agree that it is highly unlikely that any ACC team will leave, if for no other reason than the breakup fee is enormous. My sense is if the Big 12 expands it will pick up Cincinnati , which has made a very big commitment to being an athletic powerhouse. Their football and basketball programs are historically competitive and the geography helps bridge the gap with West Virginia. They would also pick up Colorado State which as you mention brings back Denver market and also has upgraded athletically and has the look and feel of other Big 12 Schools.

I think the Big 12 will continue to be a very strong basketball conference,  although it is football that drives the expansion decisions. .

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Longhorns suck

[Coleman]

Great stuff.  Thanks.  In regards to 2.  I haven't seen the contracts or GOR, but that sounds like a winnable case in terms of getting out of the GOR.  If the GOR is gone, I could definitely see 3 happening. 

I would assume, UNC, Duke, UVa and either ND or GT to the Big10.
I agree on Clemson, VT to Big12 and would add Louisville and Pitt.

SEC picks up Miami and Florida State.

Remaining teams pretty much screwed.  Could see BC/Wake dropping football if that all went down.

Would ND really go to the Big 10 and give up football independence? I doubt they would get the same arrangement they got with the ACC...

[GGGG]

There is no way on God's green earth that ND would get a special arrangement with the B10.

[Coleman]

There is no way on God's green earth that ND would get a special arrangement with the B10.

That was my point.  Which means if the ACC actually does implode, is there a sliver of hope we could get them back in the Big East for all other sports?

[GGGG]

That was my point.  Which means if the ACC actually does implode, is there a sliver of hope we could get them back in the Big East for all other sports?

I would think so.  They may not be able to park their football team in a quasi-membership like relationship like they currently have with the ACC.  They may have to be either all in, or completely independent in football.

[Coleman]

I think a best case scenario would be an ACC implosion (the best programs leaving for Big 10) and the remainder merging with AAC schools (UConn, Cincy, Memphis).

Out of that we would have a shot for Notre Dame's non-football sports and any schools that decided football was not viable going foward with the new realignment (Wake or BC, and perhaps even UConn if they don't get picked up)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think a best case scenario would be an ACC implosion (the best programs leaving for Big 10) and the remainder merging with AAC schools (UConn, Cincy, Memphis).

Out of that we would have a shot for Notre Dame's non-football sports and any schools that decided football was not viable going foward with the new realignment (Wake or BC, and perhaps even UConn if they don't get picked up)

If the ACC implodes and replaces schools like Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, etc with schools from the American, then they will end up getting American level TV money. Schools like UConn, BC, Wake, and maybe even Duke, Pitt, and Cuse will need to take a hard look at their commitment to football. The conference landscape will change significantly in the next 10 years. Gotta make sure the BEast is ready to be takers, not the taken.

[Coleman]

If the ACC implodes and replaces schools like Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, etc with schools from the American, then they will end up getting American level TV money. Schools like UConn, BC, Wake, and maybe even Duke, Pitt, and Cuse will need to take a hard look at their commitment to football. The conference landscape will change significantly in the next 10 years. Gotta make sure the BEast is ready to be takers, not the taken.

Agreed.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Even if the ACC were to implode - let's say Virginia, UNC, Duke and Georgia Tech to the B1G; NC State and Virginia Tech to SEC - then the remaining schools: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Miami would likely just merge with the Big 12 to form a 4th power conference.  Notre Dame would likely get to keep its scheduling agreement with them (B1G would certainly require full membership), and it would keep playing games in the Northeast, Southeast and, now, Southwest.   

No way the ACC willingly chooses to backfill with ECU, Tulane, UCF, USF, Memphis and the rest of the Conference USA/American call-ups.

Schools have seen the green in football.  Like a compulsive gambler, none of these schools will willingly decide to shut down or de-emphasize football.  They have tasted the allure and grandeur of college football.  They won't turn away from that - unless state governments mandate to them that they need to do that.  It would be a death sentence for that President, AD, faculty and entire administration.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't think the big 12 would have any interest in merging with the acc. They would cherry pick the best remaining schools and leave the crap behind. The acc would have no choice but to call up aac teams.

[MUMountin]

Even if the ACC were to implode - let's say Virginia, UNC, Duke and Georgia Tech to the B1G; NC State and Virginia Tech to SEC - then the remaining schools: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Miami would likely just merge with the Big 12 to form a 4th power conference.  Notre Dame would likely get to keep its scheduling agreement with them (B1G would certainly require full membership), and it would keep playing games in the Northeast, Southeast and, now, Southwest.   

No way the ACC willingly chooses to backfill with ECU, Tulane, UCF, USF, Memphis and the rest of the Conference USA/American call-ups.

Didn't they say the same thing about the Big East during its last few years as a football conference?

I can't see a wholesale merging of the two conferences (ACC and B12).  The B12 isn't going to just take the whole lot of whatever remains from the ACC, especially with a few duds in there.  If some ACC schools join the B1G, some schools (VT, NCSt., Clemson, etc.) could end up in the B12 (and maybe in the SEC, although the rumors I'm reading are saying that is currently unlikely), but there would be some remnants left behind in the ACC (e.g., I've heard nothing mentioned about Wake Forest, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, etc.).  The B12 will pick and choose the best products (with maybe a few from G5 schools mixed in), and leave the rest behind knowing that whatever remains in the ACC will be basically irrelevant.

So, the question then is what the leftovers do.  They'd surely want to keep the ACC brand, which is more valuable than either the American or CUSA brands.  But, they'll likely need additional schools to fill out the conference, so they'll pick the best of what they can from AAC/CUSA.

[Spotcheck Billy]

I thought I read during previous conference raids that UNC and NC State have to be a package deal due to NC law.

[GGGG]

Not due to state law, but due to having a Board of Governors that oversee both institutions.  (As opposed to Texas, where UT and TAMU are overseen by separate boards.)

Is the Board going to allow one school to leave, while the other lies behind in a languishing conference? 

There was a political firestorm when the ACC expanded and they wanted to take Syracuse, BC and Miami.  Virginia Tech eventually got in there due to pressure on the University of Virginia, and Syracuse had to wait.

[MUMountin]

Not due to state law, but due to having a Board of Governors that oversee both institutions.  (As opposed to Texas, where UT and TAMU are overseen by separate boards.)

Is the Board going to allow one school to leave, while the other lies behind in a languishing conference? 

There was a political firestorm when the ACC expanded and they wanted to take Syracuse, BC and Miami.  Virginia Tech eventually got in there due to pressure on the University of Virginia, and Syracuse had to wait.

From what I've read, the concern from the state/board is less about necessarily keeping them in the same conference, and more about making sure that both have viable homes for the future.  So, for instance, if NC was going to move to B1G along with a number of the other top-tier schools, decimating the ACC, then they'd want to make sure that NCSt could end up in the B12 or SEC.  So, as long as the powers-that-be in North Carolina feel like both schools end up in a sustain-able situation, it is less important that they remain in the same conference.  That could cause problems, though, if NCSt can't work its way into either the B12 or SEC. 

I have read some recent rumors as well, however, that UNC's recent academic issues could end up making it harder for the B1G to take them on.  So who knows what exactly will happen.

The ACC is having their spring meetings this week, and one of the main topics is the ACCN.  Will be interesting to hear what comes out of those discussions.