MLB 2016

[buckchuckler]

I believe there are over 40 players hitting over .400 w/ bases loaded this year. In fact, there are 10 teams that have a higher BA with bases loaded than ANY team does with the bases empty. When you look at BA with runners in scoring position, not one single team has a batting average average higher than the top team with the bases empty.

My guess is that every single year, teams hit for a considerably higher average when the bases are loaded. That is not a "clutch" stat. It really is easier to hit with the bases loaded than in any other situation, except for maybe a 3-1 count.

Batters see a lot more strikes when there are no open bases. Pitchers can't afford to throw 4 balls off the edge of the plate hoping you go fishing.

Pretty sure that doesn't explain a 70 point difference.  He is also 2nd or 3rd all time in terms of grand slams as a guy that hit 200 some home runs.  It really seems like he was able to step it up to a level most guys don't have with the bases loaded. And there are plenty of hitters that are completely terrible with the bases loaded. I don't think I believe pressure can negatively impact some people and believe there is no chance it positively impacts others.  Thise two things don't seem like they can both be true.  The former is obviously true...

[CTWarrior]

A lot of being "clutch" also has to do with reputation and perception.

Ortiz is considered clutch because he had some huge hits, particularly in the postseason, 2 WS MVP awards and he had a monstrously clutch 2005 season (3.36). However, according to FanGraphs' "Clutch" statistic, he's in the Poor to Awful range for his entire career (-1.31). He's put up a positive Clutch number in just 7 of his 20 seasons.

(http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/)

On the contrary, Mike Greenwell's career clutch number is 2.26 (Excellent). Although, he had a very anti-clutch 1990 season (-1.46) which included going 0 for 14 on the big stage of the ALCS.

I don't pretend to completely understand their math, but it looks like it is based on Win probability added.  For example, a first inning grand slam is a high leverage situation and will do a great deal to add to win probability, but I wouldn't consider it a hit in a "clutch" situation. 

[🏀]

FanGraphs created a Clutch statistic.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/

Here's the all-time Clutch players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d

[buckchuckler]

FanGraphs created a Clutch statistic.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/

Here's the all-time Clutch players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d

I know he was a good hitter, but I find it kind of hilarious that Buckner is on the first page.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I know he was a good hitter, but I find it kind of hilarious that Buckner is on the first page.

A lot of surprising names in the Top 30.  Mark Grace never drove in 100 runs in a season, (and batted in the middle of the order for most of his career), but is #11 (two spots behind "One Dog" Lance Johnson and 4 behind Ozzie Guillen). 

I'm most surprised that Carlos Lee had a negative clutch rating every year between 2002-2007.  He's another guy on the all-time grand slam list, and someone I always assumed was good with the game on the line.

[buckchuckler]

Corey Seager just broke up  Matt Moore's no hit bid with 2 out in the 9th on Corey Seager bobble head night.

[buckchuckler]

Some interesting award races are shaping up.

NL Cy Young Candidates:

Bumgarner
2.44 ERA/ 180.2 IP/ 202 K/ .212 BAA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 12-8

Hendricks
2.19 ERA/ 152 IP/ 135 K/ .207BAA/ 1.00 WHIP/ 12-7

Arrieta
2.62/161/158/.183/1.04/ 16-5

Syndergaard
2.61/148/177/.249/1.16

The Wild Card:  Clayton Kershaw.  1.79/121/145/.185/.73/ 11-2

Kershaw is on the verge of returning (possibly even next week).  I think if he gets enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162) which will be difficult for him, he will win the Cy Young.  The Dodgers have 35 games left.  He would have to get back pretty quickly and pitch fairly deep into games.  Right now I would put my money on Bumgarner, but this is pretty close and the last month plus will certainly determine who wins. 

NL ROY:

Kyle Seager.  Story getting hurt locked this one up.

NL MVP

Daniel Murphy- .346/.389/.610 (leads the league in BA and SLG)
24 HR/96 RBI (2nd)/ 37 2B (leads league tied with Rizzo)/ .999 OPS (leads league)

Kris Bryant      .301/.373/.595
33HR (2nd)/86 RBI 30 2B .968 OPS (2nd)

Anthony Rizzo .298/.398/.560
25HR/87 RBI 37 2B (leads, tied with Murphy) .956 OPS (3rd)

Arenado is worthy, but his team is out of it and that will probably cost him. 
Seager may get some votes, but I think those are the top 3.  If Murphy hits .350 with an OPS of 1.000 it will be hard to give it to anyone else.  But Bryant will have a lot to say about that down the stretch.

I will get to the AL stuff later!

[brandx]

Some interesting award races are shaping up.

NL Cy Young Candidates:

Bumgarner
2.44 ERA/ 180.2 IP/ 202 K/ .212 BAA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 12-8

Hendricks
2.19 ERA/ 152 IP/ 135 K/ .207BAA/ 1.00 WHIP/ 12-7

Arrieta
2.62/161/158/.183/1.04/ 16-5

Syndergaard
2.61/148/177/.249/1.16

The Wild Card:  Clayton Kershaw.  1.79/121/145/.185/.73/ 11-2

Excellent analysis, Chuckler.


Hendricks may deserve it, but I don't think he has a chance because the other candidates are all big names.

My prediction is Bumgarner - both because he has had a great year and he has been very, very good for a while now. It may be his "turn".

My choice would probably be Arrieta. His BBs have increased, but he is still dominating hitters (0.183 BA).

Kershaw had it in the bag until he got hurt - I just don't think you can give out the top pitcher's award to a guy who missed that much time.

[buckchuckler]

To me, a big mark in Bumgarner's favor is the innings pitched.  He is quite a bit ahead of the other guys right in the picture.  The 30 innings over Hendricks and 20 over Arrieta are no minor thing. 

[buckchuckler]

My take on some of the AL races, I know you were all waiting with baited breath. 

Cy Young.  Kind of a mess. 

Corey Kluber
3.13 ERA/ 169.2 IP/171K/ .218 BAA/ 1.04 WHIP/ 13-8

Cole Hamels
2.67/168.2/167/.231/1.23 WHIP/ 14-4

Chris Sale
3.15/168.2/165/.219/1.03/15-6

Jose Quintana
2.84/164.2/142/.238/1.12 WHIP/10-9

JA Happ
3.19/155.1/139/.232/1.15/17-4

Duffy has been great, but I don't think he has the innings to be in the conversation in earnest.  (138.2)

Wild Card: Zach Britton.  A reliever.  A completely dominant reliever.  Dominating completely everyone.  An ERA of .69 WHIP of .83 BAA of .150  38/38 in save opportunities.  But 52 innings pitched.  For me this award should go to a starter, but Britton has been the most dominating pitcher in the AL.  But those innings matter.  Also Justin Verlander is lurking right there with these other guys. 

Not sure how I would handicap this one.  My guess is it comes down to Hamels/Kluber/Sale the last month.  Hamels has been great, but his BAA and WHIP are considerably higher, though the ERA advantage is significant.  Kluber and Sale have been nearly identical.  Eerily similar actually. 

MVP.

Jose Altuve  .361/.422/.571 (1st/2nd/2nd) 2nd in OPS (.993)
 37 2B, 20 HR, 84 RBI, 26 SB (3rd)

Mike Trout.  .316/.432/.555 (4th/1st/3rd)  .987 OPS is 3rd
27 2b, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 21 SB 87 BB (leads league)

David Ortiz: .321/.411/.636 (2nd/3rd/1st) 1.047 OPS is 1st
40 2B (1st), 30 HR (6th), 100 RBI (2nd) 2 SB (holy crap!!!)

Mookie Betts: .314/.355/.553 (5th/--/5th) .908 OPS is 8th
34 2b 28 HR 91 RBI

Ortiz may get some sentimental votes (not saying he isn't worthy, obviously he is, but it may be even more)  Ortiz doesn't play a position, and I think that hurts him since the other 3 are pretty elite.  If I were ranking this right now, I'd got Altuve/ Trout/ Ortiz/ Betts.  How Trout does this every single year is astounding.  I think the fact that he is Mike Trout will negate the fact that his team is not in the race.  Just like the NL, the last month here is critical. 

AL ROY seems to be a one horse race. 

Michael Fulmer.  The Cespedes trade pays off immediately for the Tigers as Fulmer has become maybe their best pitcher.  I don't think he has the innings for Cy Young consideration (125) but he has been magnificent. 

10-4 2.58 ERA 104 K 33 BB 125 IP .218 BAA and 1.06 WHIP

Nomar Mazara may get some love, and deservedly so.  .280/.333/.425

I'd say the only other guy that would get serious consideration is maybe Edwin Diaz who has been absolutely electric for the M's, but with only 36 IP, I don't think he will have the body of work (though he has 66 ks in those 36 IP).

[🏀]

Hendricks isn't flashy enough for the CY Young, love em, but he doesn't dominate hitters. It's Bummys turn this year.

Also, really pulling for Britton as chucker pointed out. He's a great story, was left for dead as a starter, rebuilt himself into a dominate closer.

For MVP, I think Bryant and Altuve win it. Would love to see Mookie as he's one of my personal favorites, but Altuve, damn.

[buckchuckler]

Excellent analysis, Chuckler.


Hendricks may deserve it, but I don't think he has a chance because the other candidates are all big names.

My prediction is Bumgarner - both because he has had a great year and he has been very, very good for a while now. It may be his "turn".

My choice would probably be Arrieta. His BBs have increased, but he is still dominating hitters (0.183 BA).

Kershaw had it in the bag until he got hurt - I just don't think you can give out the top pitcher's award to a guy who missed that much time.

Arrieta has allowed the 5th most walks in the NL.  Bumgarner is 18th

[buckchuckler]

Hendricks isn't flashy enough for the CY Young, love em, but he doesn't dominate hitters. It's Bummys turn this year.

Also, really pulling for Britton as chucker pointed out. He's a great story, was left for dead as a starter, rebuilt himself into a dominate closer.

For MVP, I think Bryant and Altuve win it. Would love to see Mookie as he's one of my personal favorites, but Altuve, damn.

Altuve has really become a truly elite player.  I thought the power surge last year would be an illusion, but he has backed it up. 

[🏀]

Altuve has really become a truly elite player.  I thought the power surge last year would be an illusion, but he has backed it up. 

And where does that power come from? He's shorter than all of our grandmas. Crazy good.

[buckchuckler]

Jeremy Jeffress was arrested for dwi last night.  He pissed on himself durimg the sobriety test.  That is fantastic.

[GGGG]

Not really.  That's terrible.

[buckchuckler]

Not really.  That's terrible.

The fact that an irresponsible drunken idiot that endangered other people's lives is terrible.  The fact that he peed his pants in front of the officer and that the entire fan base of MLB knows is fantastic.  If you couldn't tell which part was fantastic, well, I don't know what to say.  If you for some reason feel sorry for him, well, I don't know what to say. 

[buckchuckler]

Sale made an improvement to his case tonight.  He took the loss and surrendered 3 runs, but he threw a CG, 5H, 0 BB and 14 Ks.

Looking into his numbers a little bit, coming into tonight Sale led the league in OPS against at .615 (a whole .003 ahead of his twin Kluber...)  There are 0 qualifying players in the AL that have an OPS that low.  The entire league, against him, is literally worse than the worst qualifying player in the league.  That is pretty impressive. 

[GGGG]

The fact that an irresponsible drunken idiot that endangered other people's lives is terrible.  The fact that he peed his pants in front of the officer and that the entire fan base of MLB knows is fantastic.  If you couldn't tell which part was fantastic, well, I don't know what to say.  If you for some reason feel sorry for him, well, I don't know what to say. 

A guy who has previous alcohol and drug issues, and falls off the wagon, is not "fantastic."  It's terrible.

[DegenerateDish]

NL CY Young is a two horse race between Syndegard and Jose Fernandez, numbers aren't even close for Arrieta, Hendricks, Bumgarner. Scherzer has a chance, but numbers wise, Fernandez is the best NL pitcher (Best xFIP in baseball at 2.35, 5.2 WAR).

In the AL, pick out of a hat between Tanaka/Kluber/Sale. Happ & Hamels shouldn't even been on the ballot.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Some interesting award races are shaping up.

NL Cy Young Candidates:

Bumgarner
2.44 ERA/ 180.2 IP/ 202 K/ .212 BAA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 12-8

Hendricks
2.19 ERA/ 152 IP/ 135 K/ .207BAA/ 1.00 WHIP/ 12-7

Arrieta
2.62/161/158/.183/1.04/ 16-5

Syndergaard
2.61/148/177/.249/1.16

The Wild Card:  Clayton Kershaw.  1.79/121/145/.185/.73/ 11-2

Kershaw is on the verge of returning (possibly even next week).  I think if he gets enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162) which will be difficult for him, he will win the Cy Young.  The Dodgers have 35 games left.  He would have to get back pretty quickly and pitch fairly deep into games.  Right now I would put my money on Bumgarner, but this is pretty close and the last month plus will certainly determine who wins. 

NL ROY:

Kyle Seager.  Story getting hurt locked this one up.

NL MVP

Daniel Murphy- .346/.389/.610 (leads the league in BA and SLG)
24 HR/96 RBI (2nd)/ 37 2B (leads league tied with Rizzo)/ .999 OPS (leads league)

Kris Bryant      .301/.373/.595
33HR (2nd)/86 RBI 30 2B .968 OPS (2nd)

Anthony Rizzo .298/.398/.560
25HR/87 RBI 37 2B (leads, tied with Murphy) .956 OPS (3rd)

Arenado is worthy, but his team is out of it and that will probably cost him. 
Seager may get some votes, but I think those are the top 3.  If Murphy hits .350 with an OPS of 1.000 it will be hard to give it to anyone else.  But Bryant will have a lot to say about that down the stretch.

I will get to the AL stuff later!

If Murphy hits .350 with an 1.000 OPS it would not be difficult to give the MVP to someone else. Let's not forget that he's horrendous defensively as well.

[buckchuckler]

NL CY Young is a two horse race between Syndegard and Jose Fernandez, numbers aren't even close for Arrieta, Hendricks, Bumgarner. Scherzer has a chance, but numbers wise, Fernandez is the best NL pitcher (Best xFIP in baseball at 2.35, 5.2 WAR).

In the AL, pick out of a hat between Tanaka/Kluber/Sale. Happ & Hamels shouldn't even been on the ballot.

Wow, ok well, how are the other guys not close?  FIP is such a flawed stat.  You may as well use k/9 because that throws FIP completely out of whack.  Fernandez is fantastic.  I am a huge fan.  He is completely dominant and is amazingly talented and still ridiculously young.  But he has an ERA that is about .75 higher than Bumgarner, he allows more hits and walks per 9, higher WHIP, higher AVG against, considerably fewer innings pitched.  The same can all be said for Syndergaard. 

I'm also curious why you have Tanaka in the top 3.  He has had a good year, and looking at it, I probably should have included him, but he is closer to the Quintana side of the award than Sale or Kluber.  I am also curious to your point on Hamels.  I can understand why one would say that about Happ, but Hamels has been pretty great pitching in a park that is pretty terrible to pitch in.  His numbers seem to check all the boxes that make him a contender. 

[buckchuckler]

If Murphy hits .350 with an 1.000 OPS it would not be difficult to give the MVP to someone else. Let's not forget that he's horrendous defensively as well.

Well, defense hasn't always been the biggest factor in MVP voting, and also Murphy hasn't been that terrible this year (probably still below average, but not as bad as past years).  And it isn't like the AL where Altuve and Trout are completely elite defenders.  Bryant is good, but as has been discussed his greatest defensive attribute is his versatility.  Rizzo is a great defensive 1B, but it is also the least strenuous (and likely least important) defensive position.  With that being said, MVP usually comes down to hitting. 

You are certainly right though, it could easily go somewhere else.  I'm willing to bet I know where you'd vote, regardless of what Murphy does over the last month. 

[DegenerateDish]

Wow, ok well, how are the other guys not close?  FIP is such a flawed stat.  You may as well use k/9 because that throws FIP completely out of whack.  Fernandez is fantastic.  I am a huge fan.  He is completely dominant and is amazingly talented and still ridiculously young.  But he has an ERA that is about .75 higher than Bumgarner, he allows more hits and walks per 9, higher WHIP, higher AVG against, considerably fewer innings pitched.  The same can all be said for Syndergaard. 

I'm also curious why you have Tanaka in the top 3.  He has had a good year, and looking at it, I probably should have included him, but he is closer to the Quintana side of the award than Sale or Kluber.  I am also curious to your point on Hamels.  I can understand why one would say that about Happ, but Hamels has been pretty great pitching in a park that is pretty terrible to pitch in.  His numbers seem to check all the boxes that make him a contender.

I'm sure we can agree that Wins/Losses is the most useless stat is baseball, I think ERA is mostly meaningless. Happ and Hamels are having quality years, but I strongly disagree on Hamels numbers relative to the CY Young Field. FIP and xFIP (and more so SIERA) tell me personally alot more about a pitcher, I'll agree to disagree if you think otherwise.

I'm not trying to cherry pick all the stats I like, so here's a sample.

AL Ranks    SIERA      WAR   FIP      xFIP      WHIP      AVG/vs      K/BB

Sale               4             2          5               9               1                         3                   5
Tanaka          9             3           2              6                6                        12                  3
Kluber           6             1           1              4                4                        4                    9
Hamels         15           14         17            11             17                       9                   26

NL Ranks

Fernandez    1             2           1               1              11                  11                      3
Noah S.       2              1          2                2             15                   21                      1
Madison      5              5           5               9               6                    4                        6
Hendrix       14            8           9              13              2                      3                     18
Arrieta        17             7           7              11              4                     1                      28

NL really depends on what your cup of tea is for pitching stats. I'll grant that Baumgarner's rankings are more consistent across all stat lines upon closer look. Hendricks and Arrieta are having very good years, and Kershaw would be the clear cut leader here if he was not injured.

[DegenerateDish]

On my iPhone, that table didn't come out right, my laptop, it looked right.