Turnovers

[Big Papi]

Sure, happy to.
.

• Tempo: We play a high-tempo offense. The 71.2 possessions we average is 81st in the country. However, while we are in the top-23% in terms of playing fast, we are among the worst (316) in turnover percentage. By playing at a fast pace, we are increasing the odds we will turn it over a ton, hence why we are averaging over 15 TOs per game. With a young team and two of our primary PG options turning the ball over at rates of 27.8% and 30.5%, we are literally giving games away.
  
• Efficiency: Our highest usage player is Henry Ellenson, who takes 28.1% of our shots when he is on the court. But of our top-5 players in percent of shots taken (Duane, Jajuan, Haanif, Luke) Henry is by far our least efficient shooter with an eFG% of 46.6%. Everyone else is over 53.6%. In fact, based on current numbers, our top-5 scoring options have an almost direct inverse proportion when you compare eFG% and Shot percentage. Best to worst eFG% we have 1) Luke 59.7, 2) Haanif 54.4, 3) Jajuan 54.5, 4) Duane 53.6, 5) Henry 46.6. And lowest to highest shot percentage we have 5) Luke 19.3, 4) Haanif 19.4, 3) Jajuan 22.7, 2) Duane 23.9, 1) Henry 28.1. So basically, our least effective players take the highest number of shots and our most effective players take the fewest shots.
  
• Primary Option eFG%: The counter argument to this is that when players take more shots, the numbers will come back to the mean, while it's easier to be high efficiency with a smaller number of shots. That's all well and good, but Henry is the first player since Lazar Hayward in 2010 to lead Marquette in shot percentage with an eFG% under 50.0, and Lazar was still well ahead of Henry at 49.5%. Bottom line, we are running the offense through the wrong guy.
  
• Setting Luke up for Failure: Luke is horribly misused. It isn't just that we sometimes struggle getting the ball in to him, but when we do get it in, at least 2-3 times per game we completely clear out the side once the entry pass is made. That allows for easy double-teams and takes away Luke's passing ability by feeding it in and kicking it back out. If he consistently got shots up and our guards crashed the boards from the other side, it might work, but they don't. Of our five primary guards and wings, only Jajuan has an offensive rebounding percentage over 2.5%. There is virtually no chance Duane, Haney, Sandy, or Traci will get to the rebound after clearing out.
  
• Three-Point Takers: Henry should not be second on the team in three point attempts. Two reasons, first his 29.3% success rate is the lowest on the team among players that have taken at least 20 threes (and by a decent margin, Traci is next at 33.3%). Second, Henry is one of two players on the team that is actually a good offensive rebounder (Luke the other). When he shoots from the perimeter, it takes one of our only real chances of getting offensive rebounds away from the area where he can get those rebounds. His three point attempts decrease our chances of scoring and our chances of getting to the offensive glass. It's even worse when he takes a three and Luke isn't on the floor. I sincerely hope this is being addressed as Henry is picking his shots better recently, shooting 44.4% beyond the arc in his past 7 games on 2.6 attempts per game after shooting 24.6% on 3.4 attempts over the first 17 games.

.
So in a nutshell, we play a fast-paced offense with a roster that would be better suited to slow the game down to increase efficiency and reduce the number of possessions thus giving us a better chance of being in the game late. We have the wrong guys taking shots, running the offense through the worst options and putting our highest volume and highest efficiency players in positions where they are less likely to succeed. And we compound our problems by putting our worst long-ball threat and second best offensive rebounder on the arc where we increase the odds of missing shots while decreasing the odds of getting offensive rebounds.

My guess is that Wojo wants to play an up-tempo offense predicated on turnovers and long-range shooting, but right now, we are too sloppy and inefficient to make that work. Hopefully in the years to come the bumps we suffer this year will pay off, but saying that making changes would be shifting the offense away from the players' strengths is completely false, because right now the last thing we are doing is tailoring the offense to the players' current strengths.

One of the best posts I have seen on here.  My problems lie with Wojo specifically.  We have 2 near 7 footers on this team.  We don't have any experienced capable point guards and we are trying to run and gun whenever we can.  Our turnover rate is ridiculous and the excuse I hear the most is that we are inexperienced.  How about Wojo actually coaches with what he has.  We should be able to have a very good half court offense if he could use Henry and Luke effectively.  The shooters will come next year with Rowsey and Hauser who are lights out shooters.  Adjust and coach to your personnel and I just don't see that out of Wojo.  Buzz did it with the midgets early on in his coaching career.

[BM1090]

One of the best posts I have seen on here.  My problems lie with Wojo specifically.  We have 2 near 7 footers on this team.  We don't have any experienced capable point guards and we are trying to run and gun whenever we can.  Our turnover rate is ridiculous and the excuse I hear the most is that we are inexperienced.  How about Wojo actually coaches with what he has.  We should be able to have a very good half court offense if he could use Henry and Luke effectively.  The shooters will come next year with Rowsey and Hauser who are lights out shooters.  Adjust and coach to your personnel and I just don't see that out of Wojo.  Buzz did it with the midgets early on in his coaching career.

And then failed to do it in his last year here.

[LAZER]

One of the best posts I have seen on here.  My problems lie with Wojo specifically.  We have 2 near 7 footers on this team.  We don't have any experienced capable point guards and we are trying to run and gun whenever we can.  Our turnover rate is ridiculous and the excuse I hear the most is that we are inexperienced.  How about Wojo actually coaches with what he has.  We should be able to have a very good half court offense if he could use Henry and Luke effectively.  The shooters will come next year with Rowsey and Hauser who are lights out shooters.  Adjust and coach to your personnel and I just don't see that out of Wojo.  Buzz did it with the midgets early on in his coaching career.

They're lights out shooters at their respective levels, i wouldn't count on much from them.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

They're lights out shooters at their respective levels, i wouldn't count on much from them.

Rowsey is going to surprise you.  Don't think Hauser will get much run, but I could see him being a Kellen Dunham-lite type player later in his career.

[bilsu]

I was surprised that we were averaging more turnovers than St. John's. After thinking about it, I realized that is because St. John's shoots quickly.  We have a lot of turnovers in our half court offense and often they come after someone has passed up a decent shot.

[brewcity77]

I was surprised that we were averaging more turnovers than St. John's. After thinking about it, I realized that is because St. John's shoots quickly.  We have a lot of turnovers in our half court offense and often they come after someone has passed up a decent shot.

There is only one team in all of the top-6 basketball conferences with a higher turnover percentage than us and it's DePaul.

[Henry Sugar]

Which I mentioned in my original explanatory post. But the point remains, we are not playing to our players' strengths. We are playing to their weaknesses. We are playing a style that increases the likelihood of turning the ball over, reduces our chances of having success on the offensive glass, and puts the ball into the hands of the players least likely to produce.

I hope it does pay off, but saying that this offense currently plays to our strengths is a complete fabrication.

Brew, hell of a couple posts.



When I think about it this way, I actually feel even better about what Wojo is doing. Similarly, one can look at the defense this way. One could argue Wojo is taking his lumps on the man defense for the future, when the zone is more effective now.

Also, I don't mind running the whole offense through the first McDonald's All-American in 30 years. Other talented players are going to want to come here too.

For the record, though, there's no correlation between pace and turnover rate. You didn't say that, but just in case anyone didn't know.

[MuMark]

Brew, hell of a couple posts.



When I think about it this way, I actually feel even better about what Wojo is doing. Similarly, one can look at the defense this way. One could argue Wojo is taking his lumps on the man defense for the future, when the zone is more effective now.

Also, I don't mind running the whole offense through the first McDonald's All-American in 30 years. Other talented players are going to want to come here too.

For the record, though, there's no correlation between pace and turnover rate. You didn't say that, but just in case anyone didn't know.

Thanks for pointing that out. Just in watching the games it seems like most of the turnovers happen running normal half court offense. Lots of traveling violations and offensive fouls.

[brewcity77]

Brew, hell of a couple posts.



When I think about it this way, I actually feel even better about what Wojo is doing. Similarly, one can look at the defense this way. One could argue Wojo is taking his lumps on the man defense for the future, when the zone is more effective now.

Also, I don't mind running the whole offense through the first McDonald's All-American in 30 years. Other talented players are going to want to come here too.

For the record, though, there's no correlation between pace and turnover rate. You didn't say that, but just in case anyone didn't know.

Thanks, Henry, means a lot coming from you.

Agreed that I hope this pays off in the long run. Buzz was the sort of coach to adjust his tactics to his talent every years. Wojo on the other hand seems to be working to recruit to a single system and is willing to take the bumps and bruises that come with it. Good point on the zone. While we're a pretty good defensive team, we would likely be better in a zone. But as you say, it's about the future, and he's recruited guys who have shown they can defend man (Carter, Cheatham) so it should pay off in 2-3 years.

This is one more component of the "respect the process" argument. Until Wojo's recruits are upperclassmen, we likely won't see his system really working effectively. I'd say 2017-18 is when we'll really see the team acclimate to the system.

[Lennys Tap]

Brew, hell of a couple posts.



When I think about it this way, I actually feel even better about what Wojo is doing. Similarly, one can look at the defense this way. One could argue Wojo is taking his lumps on the man defense for the future, when the zone is more effective now.

Also, I don't mind running the whole offense through the first McDonald's All-American in 30 years. Other talented players are going to want to come here too.

For the record, though, there's no correlation between pace and turnover rate. You didn't say that, but just in case anyone didn't know.

A good coach assesses his player's strengths and weaknesses and utilizes them in a way that increases their chances of being successful, i.e., winning basketball games. Throwing away games to showcase a McDonald's AA's lack of shooting skills or playing a tempo and/or defense that doesn't suit your talent is poor coaching.

[GGGG]

You really think Wojo is throwing away games to highlight Henry? 

No. Henry is the most capable offensive player on the team. And that's a problem. He's not efficient and he's inconsistent. He's a freshman.

Luke is more efficient but has to rely too much on freshman point guards to get him the ball. And they struggle getting it to him in the right spot at the right time.

I'm not sure playing the game at a slower tempo is going to necessarily help. I think the spacing that comes with better shooting will. And I think that's what we will see improve next year.

[Marcus92]

No. Henry is the most capable offensive player on the team. And that's a problem. He's not efficient and he's inconsistent. He's a freshman.

I'd agree that Henry's offensive inefficiency (or the team's in general) has little if anything to do with pace. For all his skills as a shooter, passer and ball-handler, he's still learning the ways of the big-time college basketball when it comes to shot selection, when and when not to drive the lane, taking care of the ball, etc.

I'm encouraged by his performance the past 3 games. Against Butler, Seton Hall and Xavier, Henry shot 18 for 35 (51.4%) from the field and 4 for 8 (50%) from long-range. And while he committed 6 turnovers, his turnover rate was just 11.2% (think I got that calculation right).

It's too soon to tell if that's proof of real and lasting improvement. But he does seem to be taking better shots and finding the balance between patience and aggressiveness on offense.

[brewcity77]

A good coach assesses his player's strengths and weaknesses and utilizes them in a way that increases their chances of being successful, i.e., winning basketball games. Throwing away games to showcase a McDonald's AA's lack of shooting skills or playing a tempo and/or defense that doesn't suit your talent is poor coaching.

I don't think Wojo is throwing games away to showcase Henry. I think he expects that eventually these guys will be able to play in his style and that if he gets them playing that way now they will be more likely to succeed with it in 2-3 years rather than if he changes tempo every year (as Buzz did).

It's a different philosophy, but I feel that the idea is running this style now will pay off for guys like Traci, Duane, and Haney when they are juniors and seniors. Unfortunately, that means this year (and possibly next) will be sacrificial lambs.

[NotAnAlum]

Brew - I can't dispute your statistics that say this team plays fast but based on watching all their games it sure doesn't seem like they are playing fast.  They stand around a lot while passing the ball around the perimeter not accomplishing much.  They stair into the post for what seems like minutes trying to figure out how to pass it in.  When a post player gets it he stands there for a long time.  No moves are quick, no passes are off the dribble.  They almost never fastbreak because they are so challenged to get rebounds.  It sure doesn't seem like a team playing at a fast pace.  Is it possible all their turn overs which occur in the middle of their possessions are making it look like they play fast when they really don't. 

[Lennys Tap]

I don't think Wojo is throwing games away to showcase Henry. I think he expects that eventually these guys will be able to play in his style and that if he gets them playing that way now they will be more likely to succeed with it in 2-3 years rather than if he changes tempo every year (as Buzz did).

It's a different philosophy, but I feel that the idea is running this style now will pay off for guys like Traci, Duane, and Haney when they are juniors and seniors. Unfortunately, that means this year (and possibly next) will be sacrificial lambs.

OK, maybe hyperbole on my part - but when your two best players are Clydesdales and your quarterback is unproven and inexperienced (at best) you don't run a no huddle West Coast offense. You pound it. Next year one of them will be gone and your guards will have more experience. Speed it up some then. In two years they'll both be gone and your guards will be really experienced - speed it up some more. But I hate coaches who insist on playing a "style" when their players don't fit it - even Bo picked up the tempo and ditched the swing when he had the horses.

[Jay Bee]

• Tempo: We play a high-tempo offense. The 71.2 possessions we average is 81st in the country.
  

We're playing faster than that.. we're at 72.7, #44 in the country. 71.2/81 is based on *questionable* adjustments to account for opposition.

[Dr. Blackheart]

In 2006 with the Amigos as freshmen, MU's offensive efficiency in Big East play was 107.5 with a turnover rate of 19.9 and an assist rate of 56.2.  In 2016 in Big East play, MU's offensive efficiency is 96.4 with a turnover rate of 22.3% and an assist rate of 57.5.  Adjusted tempo in 2006 was 68.9 versus 72.4 now.  Offensive rebounding rate was 32.9 then and 24.9 now.  Defensive rebounding percent was 38.6 then and 32.9 now. eFG% was 52.8 then and 49.7 now.

With a higher tempo, turning it over more while rebounding less while missing more, shyt happens!  While Jerel turned it over at a high rate, DJames and Steve Novak were the difference makers. Let's grab the next three with smart and determined play and see where we sit.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sure, happy to.
.

• Tempo: We play a high-tempo offense. The 71.2 possessions we average is 81st in the country. However, while we are in the top-23% in terms of playing fast, we are among the worst (316) in turnover percentage. By playing at a fast pace, we are increasing the odds we will turn it over a ton, hence why we are averaging over 15 TOs per game. With a young team and two of our primary PG options turning the ball over at rates of 27.8% and 30.5%, we are literally giving games away.
  
• Efficiency: Our highest usage player is Henry Ellenson, who takes 28.1% of our shots when he is on the court. But of our top-5 players in percent of shots taken (Duane, Jajuan, Haanif, Luke) Henry is by far our least efficient shooter with an eFG% of 46.6%. Everyone else is over 53.6%. In fact, based on current numbers, our top-5 scoring options have an almost direct inverse proportion when you compare eFG% and Shot percentage. Best to worst eFG% we have 1) Luke 59.7, 2) Haanif 54.4, 3) Jajuan 54.5, 4) Duane 53.6, 5) Henry 46.6. And lowest to highest shot percentage we have 5) Luke 19.3, 4) Haanif 19.4, 3) Jajuan 22.7, 2) Duane 23.9, 1) Henry 28.1. So basically, our least effective players take the highest number of shots and our most effective players take the fewest shots.
  
• Primary Option eFG%: The counter argument to this is that when players take more shots, the numbers will come back to the mean, while it's easier to be high efficiency with a smaller number of shots. That's all well and good, but Henry is the first player since Lazar Hayward in 2010 to lead Marquette in shot percentage with an eFG% under 50.0, and Lazar was still well ahead of Henry at 49.5%. Bottom line, we are running the offense through the wrong guy.
  
• Setting Luke up for Failure: Luke is horribly misused. It isn't just that we sometimes struggle getting the ball in to him, but when we do get it in, at least 2-3 times per game we completely clear out the side once the entry pass is made. That allows for easy double-teams and takes away Luke's passing ability by feeding it in and kicking it back out. If he consistently got shots up and our guards crashed the boards from the other side, it might work, but they don't. Of our five primary guards and wings, only Jajuan has an offensive rebounding percentage over 2.5%. There is virtually no chance Duane, Haney, Sandy, or Traci will get to the rebound after clearing out.
  
• Three-Point Takers: Henry should not be second on the team in three point attempts. Two reasons, first his 29.3% success rate is the lowest on the team among players that have taken at least 20 threes (and by a decent margin, Traci is next at 33.3%). Second, Henry is one of two players on the team that is actually a good offensive rebounder (Luke the other). When he shoots from the perimeter, it takes one of our only real chances of getting offensive rebounds away from the area where he can get those rebounds. His three point attempts decrease our chances of scoring and our chances of getting to the offensive glass. It's even worse when he takes a three and Luke isn't on the floor. I sincerely hope this is being addressed as Henry is picking his shots better recently, shooting 44.4% beyond the arc in his past 7 games on 2.6 attempts per game after shooting 24.6% on 3.4 attempts over the first 17 games.

.
So in a nutshell, we play a fast-paced offense with a roster that would be better suited to slow the game down to increase efficiency and reduce the number of possessions thus giving us a better chance of being in the game late. We have the wrong guys taking shots, running the offense through the worst options and putting our highest volume and highest efficiency players in positions where they are less likely to succeed. And we compound our problems by putting our worst long-ball threat and second best offensive rebounder on the arc where we increase the odds of missing shots while decreasing the odds of getting offensive rebounds.

My guess is that Wojo wants to play an up-tempo offense predicated on turnovers and long-range shooting, but right now, we are too sloppy and inefficient to make that work. Hopefully in the years to come the bumps we suffer this year will pay off, but saying that making changes would be shifting the offense away from the players' strengths is completely false, because right now the last thing we are doing is tailoring the offense to the players' current strengths.

Solid post. I agree with points 2-5, especially with the point about Henry's three point shooting. I don't mind him taking open threes, but he shouldn't be number two on the team. I think Wojo has addressed that in the past few weeks because we've seen a much better Henry.

I don't agree with point 1. As Henry pointed out, there is not correlation between increased pace and increased turnovers. I may be off in my understanding, but I think that our high turnovers and our high steal% is what drives our number of possessions up, inflating our pace. So instead of the pace increasing turnovers I think it is the turnovers that increase the pace. I think the more likely reason we are 1-6 in games with an increased pace is because our turnover rate was that high in that game.

[brewcity77]

I'm not saying the pace leads to a higher turnover rate. I know those are unrelated. However, we are a turnover prone team. So when we play fast, we increase the odds of giving the ball away which increases the score disparity making it more difficult to be in the game late.

As our turnover percentage is higher than our takeaway percentage, playing faster hurts us more than it helps. Too often when we take it away and go fast break, it seems we throw the ball away, dribble into a 1-on-3, or drive to the home while ignoring the open man. These are times when you need to slow down.

If you are turnover prone, playing faster will limit the total number of turnovers (not the percentage) and thus increase the chance you can keep it close late.

I know the NBA tracks fast break efficiency. I would love to see those numbers for this team. I feel a lot of our problem is poor fast breaks that lead to squandered takeaways and foolish turnovers.

[Henry Sugar]

A good coach assesses his player's strengths and weaknesses and utilizes them in a way that increases their chances of being successful, i.e., winning basketball games. Throwing away games to showcase a McDonald's AA's lack of shooting skills or playing a tempo and/or defense that doesn't suit your talent is poor coaching.

It's investing for the future versus maximizing profits results today, especially with the 8th least experienced team in the country.

However, it is also entirely possible that Wojo is not a good enough coach to modify his system and adapt to the personnel. Despite the long tenure as an assistant, he's inexperienced at running his own show. Perhaps he is just defaulting to the system with which he is familiar and we are making excuses for the inconsistencies and coaching strategies. It's certainly a default explanation.

What I like about Brew's post is that it provides an alternate explanation where Wojo gets some credit for long term thinking and honestly, being a little brave. Of course, maybe what I really like about it is the sense of optimism.

[Lennys Tap]

It's investing for the future versus maximizing profits results today, especially with the 8th least experienced team in the country.

However, it is also entirely possible that Wojo is not a good enough coach to modify his system and adapt to the personnel. Despite the long tenure as an assistant, he's inexperienced at running his own show. Perhaps he is just defaulting to the system with which he is familiar and we are making excuses for the inconsistencies and coaching strategies. It's certainly a default explanation.

What I like about Brew's post is that it provides an alternate explanation where Wojo gets some credit for long term thinking and honestly, being a little brave. Of course, maybe what I really like about it is the sense of optimism.

Hope you're right - bravery is certainly a preferred explanation to stubbornness or inflexibility.

[MU82]

Feel bad for Henry.  No way should this team not be in contention for a big dance bid.

Well, given that Henry ranks second on the team in turnovers and is last among our top 6 rotation players in FG% and is hurtin' in most of the offensive efficiency stats brew stated, maybe Henry should feel bad for the rest of the team!

That's admittedly over-the-top hyperbole, but it's just my way of saying they are all in this together, and nobody is immune from criticism. Including the head coach and his assistants. (Some might say especially Wojo & Co. -- cue the "leash"!)

I am an optimist. I generally have enjoyed watching this season's team -- DePaul and a few other games being notable exceptions -- and I believe the program has a bright future. That will depend upon Wojo's improvement as a game coach and his continued success as a recruiter; I have high hopes there, too.

On one other subject mentioned here ...

Most FS1 announcers are OK, IMHO. Nothing great, nothing too horrible. I have had to mute the sound the last two times Dickey was the analyst, though. He ranks among the very worst I have ever heard in any sport, and I have seen/heard  hundreds if not thousands.

[brewcity77]

After Buzz, I get why we embrace coaches that can be adaptable. Buzz found ways to win with different types of players and at different paces of play. That got us to the tournament every year but the lady with great NCAA results.

That said, plenty of coaches are just as, or even more successful by being inflexible. Jim Boeheim never leaves the zone. Bo Ryan stuck with the Swing and man defense no matter what. Wojo seems to want up tempo offense predicated on turnovers and man defense. Right now, the results aren't good with the combination of a bare cupboard and youth. In 2-3 years, we'll see.

[mu03eng]

I'm not saying the pace leads to a higher turnover rate. I know those are unrelated. However, we are a turnover prone team. So when we play fast, we increase the odds of giving the ball away which increases the score disparity making it more difficult to be in the game late.

As our turnover percentage is higher than our takeaway percentage, playing faster hurts us more than it helps. Too often when we take it away and go fast break, it seems we throw the ball away, dribble into a 1-on-3, or drive to the home while ignoring the open man. These are times when you need to slow down.

If you are turnover prone, playing faster will limit the total number of turnovers (not the percentage) and thus increase the chance you can keep it close late.

I know the NBA tracks fast break efficiency. I would love to see those numbers for this team. I feel a lot of our problem is poor fast breaks that lead to squandered takeaways and foolish turnovers.

This is where I think there needs to be stat like effective tempo, because I think there is a quirk in the tempo stat. Most of our turnovers are on fast breaks or early in the possessions, that biases the tempo stat to say we are going faster then we actually are.

I'm not saying we don't play up tempo, but we really play in two phases: On an opponent miss, we push tempo hoping to score against an unestablished defense, if not there we settle into a half court offense looking for paint touches and kicks. On opponent makes, we are running a half court offense in which we take the first good look(usually). In each phase, the turnovers come early in possessions more so than late. Early TOs mean "faster pace"

[brewcity77]

I'd really like to see someone track fast break efficiency. I know they track it for the NBA. While we try to break plenty, I'm not sure we're very good at it. What good is forcing a turnover if you hand it right back without scoring?