RPI "Wizard" Question

[Spotcheck Billy]

There was never any plan to make the NCAA this season, its all about making HE return in order to make the NCAA and play a year 2 with Wally.

[jsheim]

No, it's not. The difference would come into play in the opponents' opponents' calculation, which is NOT adjusted for games against you (unlike the opponents' win-loss record). I'll happily wager $100,000 on this if you'd like.

you are correct...as for the $100K...in the immortal words of Sky Masterson (quoting his dad I think):

"One of these days, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken.
Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear.
But, son, you do not accept this bet because, as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."

[GGGG]

There was never any plan to make the NCAA this season, its all about making HE return in order to make the NCAA and play a year 2 with Wally.

+1

I think everyone realized that an NCAA bid would have been a huge accomplishment.  This season was about growth.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.

If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.

Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.

[BM1090]

Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.

If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.

Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.

If we won out, got the 5 seed, Beat Providence and then lost to Nova in the 2nd round, we'd be 22-11 with an RPI of 69 and SOS of 73. Very unlikely we get in in that scenario but it's not completely unprecedented. So basically, to have any hopes of an at large we'd need to win the next 6 games. To have a 50/50 shot we'd have to win the next 7.

If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.

Obviously all these numbers are estimated, but there are still a select few scenarios that we'd have a small shot at an at large berth.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we won out, got the 5 seed, Beat Providence and then lost to Nova in the 2nd round, we'd be 22-11 with an RPI of 69 and SOS of 73. Very unlikely we get in in that scenario but it's not completely unprecedented. So basically, to have any hopes of an at large we'd need to win the next 6 games. To have a 50/50 shot we'd have to win the next 7.

If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.

Obviously all these numbers are estimated, but there are still a select few scenarios that we'd have a small shot at an at large berth.

I haven't tried to look at the other teams schedules, but if we were to win out, does the 5 seed look more likely than the 6?

[BM1090]

I haven't tried to look at the other teams schedules, but if we were to win out, does the 5 seed look more likely than the 6?

I would say yes. If we win out we would pretty much win any tiebreaker with Butler, Providence or Georgetown, as we'd have a 5-1 record against those three teams. Same goes if we finish 9-9 but beat Georgetown and Butler along the way.

I have no idea which would be more likely, but we definitely would win most tiebreakers.

[KampusFoods]

I would say yes. If we win out we would pretty much win any tiebreaker with Butler, Providence or Georgetown, as we'd have a 5-1 record against those three times. Same goes if we finish 9-9 but beat Georgetown and Butler along the way.

I have no idea which would be more likely, but we definitely would win most tiebreakers.

I know you'alls are just playing with the hypotheticals, but I don't think we need to be worried about whether we get the 5 or 6.

I'm pulling for the 7. Would like to feel like we have a chance in round 2 should we make it there. Nova seems untouchable right now.

[Benny B]

Nova seems untouchable right now.

Which would make a win all the more sweeter.

[brewcity77]

Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.

If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.

Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.

And what's sad is that would still only have us on the bubble, hoping to be playing in Dayton. It would guarantee we got a NIT berth, however. So if we don't lose another game until March 12 with our only loss in the BET Title Game to Villanova, we'll be on pins and needles throughout the Selection Show.

[Benny B]

Honestly, I'd be content with finishing in the 60s/70s and running the tables in the NIT.  Or cross your fingers for a table run  in the BET... that'd be great, too.

In other words, my new goal (hope) for the season is two championships in NYC.

[BM1090]

And what's sad is that would still only have us on the bubble, hoping to be playing in Dayton. It would guarantee we got a NIT berth, however. So if we don't lose another game until March 12 with our only loss in the BET Title Game to Villanova, we'll be on pins and needles throughout the Selection Show.

What do you think of this scenario? What % chance on Selection Sunday? 10%?

If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.

Also, if we had won at home against Creighton or DePaul our projected RPI jumps 6 spots....so that hurts a bit.

[Lennys Tap]

Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.

If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.

Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.

Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!

[brewcity77]

What do you think of this scenario? What % chance on Selection Sunday? 10%?

If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.

Also, if we had won at home against Creighton or DePaul our projected RPI jumps 6 spots....so that hurts a bit.

The main thing in our favor would be a strong finish. It wouldn't be impossible, and I'd definitely be watching Selection Sunday with interest, but I'd expect us to be left out. The only way I think we get an at-large is if we win out until the BET Final. Even then, I'd be nervous because I'm not sure how heavily the BET games would be factored in if we didn't win the auto-bid.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The main thing in our favor would be a strong finish. It wouldn't be impossible, and I'd definitely be watching Selection Sunday with interest, but I'd expect us to be left out. The only way I think we get an at-large is if we win out until the BET Final. Even then, I'd be nervous because I'm not sure how heavily the BET games would be factored in if we didn't win the auto-bid.

The committee has said in the past that one of the key factors they look at is record over the last 10 games.  Ours would be pretty strong if we were to win out to BET final.  But I agree, we'd probably be one of the last four in, or perhaps one of the last byes.  Losses are starting to rack up around the country, but the computer numbers for MU still suck. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!

Sorry for sharing for those of us who are interested.  Ass.

[wildbillsb]

Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!

+100!