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Author Topic: RPI "Wizard" Question  (Read 14994 times)

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2016, 11:12:57 AM »
Just for sh*ts and gigs, but mainly cause its Monday and I don't feel like working.

11-7; win out in BE play
BET win over Providence / loss to Nova
23-10 / RPI 58 / SOS 70

11-7; win out in BE play
BET loss to Providence
22-10 / RPI 64 / SOS 82


10-8; remaining loss to Nova
BET win over Seton Hall, Loss to X
22-11/ RPI 67 / SOS 73


10-8; remaining loss to Nova
BET wins over Seton Hall and X; Loss to Nova in Championship
23-11 / RPI 60 / SOS 60


9-9; remaining losses to Nova and @ Butler
BET wins over St. Johns; Loss to X
21-12/ RPI 86 / SOS 91


9-9; remaining losses to Nova and @ Butler
BET wins over St. Johns, X, Seton Hall; Loss to Nova
23-12/ RPI 67 / SOS 72


8-10; remaining loses to Nova, @ Creighton, @ Butler
BET wins over SJU, X, Seton Hall; Loss to Nova
22-13 / RPI 76 / SIS 72


IMO, Green is likely in; Blue is last 4 in / first four out territory / red or anything worse is out.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2016, 11:32:07 AM by JamilJaeJamailJrJuan »
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BM1090

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2016, 11:29:21 AM »
I would change your last green scenario (9-9 with 3 BET wins) to blue. But other than that I agree. I think 12 BE wins total are needed unless they win out in the regular season. 11-7 with a 7 game winning streak would probably do it.

Unlikely, but who cares. Starts Wednesday!

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2016, 11:30:35 AM »
I would change your last green scenario (9-9 with 3 BET wins) to blue. But other than that I agree. I think 12 BE wins total are needed unless they win out in the regular season. 11-7 with a 7 game winning streak would probably do it.

Unlikely, but who cares. Starts Wednesday!

Haha yeah, I did before you posted.  I read through it again and thought the same thing. The RPI is ugly, but that'd be a tough team to leave out. 
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Benny B

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2016, 08:58:27 PM »
I'm just being objective. Take away our MU allegiance and you wouldn't be making a case for this team being a tourney team

I'm advocating nothing of the sort. What I'm saying is take away RPI (and any related metrics) and MU has a resume on par with any bubble team right now.

Hell, look at Duke's resume before tonight... 8th in their conference, best wins are vs. VCU (n) and IU (h).  2-5 vs RPI-50.  Lost at Clemson (78).   And they were a projected 6 seed before tonight.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

BM1090

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #29 on: February 10, 2016, 11:38:57 PM »
RPI up to 95 after a win tonight. Finally cracked the top 100.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Also, Gottleib thinks we can get in with 9-9 in the BE. He's wrong (unless the numbers drastically change) but good publicity I guess?

Doug Gottlieb ‏@GottliebShow  1h1 hour ago
#Marquette has a shot at the tourney now. Hope everyone gets a chance to see Ellenson.

.500 in league  Doug Gottlieb added,

CJ @CjFMAHitsBombs
@GottliebShow you really think #mubb has a chance still? What do they have to do?

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2016, 09:57:46 AM »
RPI up to 95 after a win tonight. Finally cracked the top 100.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Also, Gottleib thinks we can get in with 9-9 in the BE. He's wrong (unless the numbers drastically change) but good publicity I guess?

Doug Gottlieb ‏@GottliebShow  1h1 hour ago
#Marquette has a shot at the tourney now. Hope everyone gets a chance to see Ellenson.

.500 in league  Doug Gottlieb added,

CJ @CjFMAHitsBombs
@GottliebShow you really think #mubb has a chance still? What do they have to do?

9-9 will get them in the conversation. As lame as it sounds, I do think Henry (and the simple fact that we are young) will help us. If there are 8 teams that the committee is choosing between for the last four in, and we're one of them, you have imagine they'll see a young MU team that started slow, but bounced back well in the 2nd half, and some real star power in Ellenson.  10-8 would be better, obviously, but 9-9 gives us a chance.  It would require the committee to dismiss our buy game SOS a bit, but honestly, when looking at it objectively, they should.  MU replaces those 300+ RPI games with teams between 200-250, they still likely win them all and their computer numbers would now longer be an issue.

That said, still alot of work to do.  The next three are must wins.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 10:14:01 AM by JamilJaeJamailJrJuan »
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brewcity77

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2016, 10:25:57 AM »
If they throw out the RPI, then 9-9 gets us in the conversation. My biggest worry in that regard is when they interview the Selection Committee chair, every year they talk about whether teams challenged themselves in non-con play.

Whatever happens, NCAA, NIT, CBI, or no postseason, this year is a positive. We're guaranteed no worse than a .500 record and have more league wins than a year ago. That's with a young team that will should continue improving for the next few years.
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Benny B

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2016, 11:38:44 AM »
If they throw out the RPI, then 9-9 gets us in the conversation. My biggest worry in that regard is when they interview the Selection Committee chair, every year they talk about whether teams challenged themselves in non-con play.

Granted, but hasn't that conversation mostly been applied to mid-major teams like Colorado State whose toughest opponents in non-con last year were Georgia State, UTEP, and UCSB despite a non-con SOS of #76?  I know the committee gives credit to teams who challenge themselves in non-con, but I don't think they're necessarily punishing teams just because they didn't.  In other words, teams are not being snubbed just because they had poor non-con schedules... there's always another rationale.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2016, 11:56:14 AM »
Granted, but hasn't that conversation mostly been applied to mid-major teams like Colorado State whose toughest opponents in non-con last year were Georgia State, UTEP, and UCSB despite a non-con SOS of #76?  I know the committee gives credit to teams who challenge themselves in non-con, but I don't think they're necessarily punishing teams just because they didn't.  In other words, teams are not being snubbed just because they had poor non-con schedules... there's always another rationale.

This, plus MU didn't exactly play a cake walk schedule. Iowa, LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Belmont, and even IUPUI all very good to respectable teams. 

MU's problem is the bottom feeders on the schedule were/are the dregs on the NCAA - but like I said earlier, you replace Grambling (346), Maine (303), San Jose(297), Chicago State (344) and Presbyterian (335) with Gardner Webb (201), Wagner (204), Air Force (208), Canisius (210) and Fairleigh Dickinson (212), MU's record is likely the same but their computer numbers would be much, much better. This is why RPI/SOS is a very flawed stat.   
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2016, 11:58:50 AM »
This, plus MU didn't exactly play a cake walk schedule. Iowa, LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Belmont, and even IUPUI all very good to respectable teams. 

MU's problem is the bottom feeders on the schedule were/are the dregs on the NCAA - but like I said earlier, you replace Grambling (346), Maine (303), San Jose(297), Chicago State (344) and Presbyterian (335) with Gardner Webb (201), Wagner (204), Air Force (208), Canisius (210) and Fairleigh Dickinson (212), MU's record is likely the same but their computer numbers would be much, much better. This is why RPI/SOS is a very flawed stat.

I ran the numbers according to RPI Wizard, and MU's RPI/SOS would be 70/54 right now instead of 95/92.  Enormous difference. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

slack00

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #35 on: February 11, 2016, 02:54:10 PM »
I ran the numbers according to RPI Wizard, and MU's RPI/SOS would be 70/54 right now instead of 95/92.  Enormous difference.

What is the RPI if MU happened to lose one of those games?  With an inexperienced team such as this, a December loss to a 200 RPI team is possible.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #36 on: February 11, 2016, 02:57:14 PM »
What is the RPI if MU happened to lose one of those games?  With an inexperienced team such as this, a December loss to a 200 RPI team is possible.

Don't know (feel free to run the numbers), but I sort of doubt they'd lose one of the games.  Those teams are not good at basketball. My guess is RPI would fall 8-10 spots. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

brewcity77

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #37 on: February 11, 2016, 04:48:38 PM »
Earlier today, I ran numbers substituting four Marquette opponents for other mid-major/low-major teams that played road games the same nights we played. I only did four because you always have some real bottom feeders. Here are the changes, with the kenpom and RPI numbers in parentheses after.
.
  • Dec. 2: Vermont (184/161) instead of Grambling (348/347)
  • Dec. 5: Kent State (170/105) instead of Maine (322/303)
  • Dec. 21: New Hampshire (262/195) instead of Chicago State (344/345)
  • Dec. 27: Fairfield (209/173) instead of Presbyterian (312/335)
.
Next...here are the considerations of how this would affect our RPI according to RPIWizard. I have three possibilities for each, the "real" schedule and results based on what happens from here on out, the hypothetical schedule had we gone 4-0 assuming nothing else changed, and the hypothetical schedule assuming we had lost to Kent State (the most likely loss of the four teams above):

18-13 (7-11)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 115 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 78 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 91 / SOS: 39 **17-14 (7-11)**

19-12 (8-10)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 97 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 66 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 77 / SOS: 39 **18-13 (8-10)**

20-11 (9-9)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 83 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 62 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 67 / SOS: 39 **19-12 (9-9)**

21-10 (10-8)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 74 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 45 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 63 / SOS: 39 **20-11 (10-8)**

22-9 (11-7)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 65 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 30 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 47 / SOS: 39 **21-10 (11-7)**

So...what's done is done. There's nothing that can change it now. I'm not writing this to bitch about the schedule. I'm simply using this to address the question that was asked.

Based on the real schedule, if you strictly go by historical numbers of what RPI was in and out, we will need to win out to be on the bubble. I know plenty of people are pushing the 10-8 is good enough narrative, but I don't believe any team with a RPI in the 70s has earned an at-large bid since the 1990s (New Mexico in 1997, maybe?). 20 or 21 total wins should have us safely invited to the NIT, but if we end up with a losing conference record (3-3 from here on out) we are likely going to be left out of the NIT. Don't forget, the 2014 Marquette team was left out of the NIT with a 94 RPI and better SOS than this year's team will have.

Based on the hypothetical schedule assuming we win all four of those games, we would only need to go 20-11 to be likely in. The average difference of the old schedule and the new is 30 positions in the RPI (bear in mind that's not the actual percentage point numbers, just what RPIWizard spit out). Not only that, but the 10-8 record that many people think would give us a shot (again, I disagree) would make us a lock had we changed those four games. No way a 21 win big East team with a winning league record and 45 RPI gets left home.

Then we have the most interesting scenario in my opinion, which is if we had played those four games and gone 3-1. The adjusted record is included in that line. The SOS would not change, but the RPI would. That said, 19-12 (9-9) would still have us on the bubble (likely out) with a 67 RPI and 20-11 (10-8) would give us a decent shot. Even with a loss, we would still looking at an RPI improvement of 17.8 positions on average and a massively better SOS.

One more note. While the validity of RPIWizard has yet to be determined, if we win out and get the 4-seed, we still may not be a lock, at least if you consider the history of the RPI. Lose that first game (to Butler) at MSG and we're looking at an RPI of 66. That's dangerously low. Even if we beat Butler and lose the next game to Villanova, we'd only have a 61 RPI. And that's if we don't lose another game until we play Villanova in the Big East Tournament semifinals.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #38 on: February 11, 2016, 05:02:42 PM »
I was in the  just win and the schedule will figure itself out camp. Upon further review, I must admit I was wrong. If we had picked our cupcakes better, we would have had a greater margin for error. This team might be hitting its stride but asking it to win enough to counteract the low rpi is just not a reasonable expectation
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Jay Bee

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2016, 06:17:36 PM »
Maybe a few committee members have an unreasonably woodie for Ben Simmons like so many people seem to and they give MU extra credit for beating them on a neutral court.

Nonetheless.. my stance is: MU needs to win the next two.. THEN we START to talk about the long road ahead in order to make the tourney.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2016, 07:09:07 PM »
Maybe a few committee members have an unreasonably woodie for Ben Simmons like so many people seem to and they give MU extra credit for beating them on a neutral court.

Nonetheless.. my stance is: MU needs to win the next two.. THEN we START to talk about the long road ahead in order to make the tourney.

What's wrong with Gophs, Jay Bee? Richie on his way our?
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bilsu

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #41 on: February 11, 2016, 07:19:55 PM »
I am not predicting we will do it, but if you beat Creighton twice, DePaul, Georgetown and Butler it gets you to 10 wins. In that scenario the NCAA could not pick Providence, Butler or Creighton over MU, because MU will of swept those teams. Split with Georgetown adds a loss to the several losses Georgetown already has. Assuming a loss to Villanova we will of been swept by Villanova, Xavier and  Seton Hall. In this scenario I think we end up in the 4/5 game and a win there gets us in. The loser of the 4/5 game may not get a bid. MU playing well down the stretch might mean the Big East gets only 4 bids.

brewcity77

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #42 on: February 11, 2016, 08:05:36 PM »
Head to head is a very dicey argument when it comes to a resume. Providence would only have one bad loss (DePaul), have played better against a tougher schedule, and wins over Arizona and Villanova, both better than Marquette's best win. Butler would have no bad losses, played better against a tougher schedule, and have a win over Purdue that's better than any of ours. Creighton is more comparable with only a slightly tougher schedule but worse record, though the Xavier win is nice.

This all assumes the same conference record, but if that's equal, I'd expect Providence and Butler to both get in ahead of us.
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bilsu

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #43 on: February 11, 2016, 08:57:58 PM »
If we tank in the last 6 games, Providence will have three bad losses and maybe four, because they could lose to DePaul again. They are 6-6 and I predict they will be 6-9 after losing to Georgetown, Xavier and Seton Hall in their next three games. On the flip side, if Providence could turn things around then our two victories against them become more valuable. Providence is overrated, because every one sees how good Dunn and Bentil are and then assume Providence is deserving of their ranking. As the season goes on teams are better able to handle a two star team, so the teams that Providence were able to beat early on are now better equipped to handle them.

BM1090

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #44 on: February 11, 2016, 10:11:23 PM »
dropped from 95 to 99 tonight. Our non conference opponents (Iowa, Stetson, Presbyterian, Maine, IUPUI) went 0-5

Jay Bee

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2016, 10:15:01 PM »
What's wrong with Gophs, Jay Bee? Richie on his way our?

It's really bad. I think a part is his surroundings. If I was an assistant, that team is markedly better.

You give him a year... and we see how things go next year + where recruiting is at in a year (including Matthew Hurt '19 or '18)........

I still think Richard has a chance to succeed... needs the right help
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WarriorPride68

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #46 on: February 11, 2016, 10:35:08 PM »
dropped from 95 to 99 tonight. Our non conference opponents (Iowa, Stetson, Presbyterian, Maine, IUPUI) went 0-5

Thanks a lot guys!!

WarriorPride68

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #47 on: February 11, 2016, 10:58:51 PM »

Based on the real schedule, if you strictly go by historical numbers of what RPI was in and out, we will need to win out to be on the bubble. I know plenty of people are pushing the 10-8 is good enough narrative, but I don't believe any team with a RPI in the 70s has earned an at-large bid since the 1990s (New Mexico in 1997, maybe?). 20 or 21 total wins should have us safely invited to the NIT, but if we end up with a losing conference record (3-3 from here on out) we are likely going to be left out of the NIT. Don't forget, the 2014 Marquette team was left out of the NIT with a 94 RPI and better SOS than this year's team will have.

And I believe the lowest Kenpom ever to make the tourney is in the 60's? Marquette is currently 105

brewcity77

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #48 on: February 11, 2016, 11:08:50 PM »
If we tank in the last 6 games, Providence will have three bad losses and maybe four, because they could lose to DePaul again. They are 6-6 and I predict they will be 6-9 after losing to Georgetown, Xavier and Seton Hall in their next three games. On the flip side, if Providence could turn things around then our two victories against them become more valuable. Providence is overrated, because every one sees how good Dunn and Bentil are and then assume Providence is deserving of their ranking. As the season goes on teams are better able to handle a two star team, so the teams that Providence were able to beat early on are now better equipped to handle them.

But your comment was Providence getting in ahead of us. If we tank the last six, we won't be getting in anywhere so the point is moot.
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Litehouse

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Re: RPI "Wizard" Question
« Reply #49 on: February 12, 2016, 05:39:58 AM »
Brew, thanks for doing the analysis. A lot of us have been pointing out that our horrible choice of cupcakes is going to kill our NCAA chances, and the hard numbers help point that out.  Hopefully we can get to at least 10-8 to give the committee a hard choice and see what they do.  I assume Wojo, Broeker and Scholl must realize all this also, so if we can't get in at 10-8 there better be changes for next years schedule.

 

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